ESTIMATES OF COMMUNIST MANPOWER LOSSES IN SOUTH VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78T02095R000800060001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 2000
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 23, 1966
• Content Type: MF

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Apprbveqet For Release 2001/03/0,3,:,CiATKPPi8T020
ZI=OrarletUM is respeneilie ,to statement by Joseph,
Alsop that intelligence estimates of Co=unist nanpover losses .
'tail to cover ,a12 leases silscuJateXTvirguit Dertieularly those due
to disease and sickness*" , ?
2.: The estiritates of manpower 'losses currently scented in
to intellicenee cosznanity are those xacepszed by OM anci wed In:
' 1I114.3.66, stiorth Vietaccese lalitary Potential for righting
,in North Vietnams" and in the soocalled McNamara go 'Vile Vietnamese
Communista Will to Persist." , Our estimated =spina= losses use
IS a base VIM, J021a estirmtes of ETA end captured* to which
add. estimates of ,the number of seriOusiy wounded, relaters and
deserters. " ?
3. Ste current estimeteicfpugrover losses do net include
timates of attrition due to disease and sickness. At the time ?,
, the estimates were 72repare4 we acialowledged that ,adevate data
were pot available to reeks such an estimate* An estimate of such,
attrition was prepared by ACSI but rejected during the ra de*:?
The ACSI et:trim:ate vas based on an inadequate sample ***,,.?z
7 doc=ents. Zt was e.,,n4ead, moreover, tb.at estimating matpot.zerr,
X0S305 involved CO many unknowns and variables that estimating
attrition due to disease and sickness represented an attempt to;
obtain au uptenabia sp,eciticity., Whatever the amount of,attritiono
it vas undoulztedly well within the .mcggin of error lattributed to
over;e3.1 estimate* ' ' ,--' ?
' 1
'? * 1. 4
Approved For Release 2001/03/03 : CIA-RDP78T02095R000800060001-5
4. einee. ti o estimates vera Prersrado 'that Crile Task raran,
tas tmoOverod a fair =molt of data shoWns 1164 on diceaso and
..:atekness among et fore-034, A very pre1lm1nex7 1urLt
..,1,naioaiton this attritIon :debt rin tbo order at' 22,000, troaiS
darntlekily, it this judozant 4,03 confIrszeds our estImatet ozoszta
lacckila Incroase by about 24pcqcnt, an increase welt vItbin tha',
c:1022fIdona0 IrtsIta og the or Inal coVmatest
Approved For Release 2001/03/03 : CIA-RDP78T02095R000800060001-5