EVALUATIONS OF SOVIET SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE DEPLOYMENT 17TH REVISION

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CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9
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August 19, 2003
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16
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March 1, 1965
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REPORT
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Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 fr TOP SECRET Copy ;~'~ 103 Pages EVALUATIONS OF SOVIET SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE DEPLOYMENT A Report 17TH REVISION of the Deployment Working Group Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee DECLASS REVIEW by NIMA/DOD TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 GROUP 1 E.0.ded from e~remeric d_q ding and dec loecllicerlen Rerf O f M/C T b16-9 25X1 EVALUATIONS OF SOVIET SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE DEPLOYMENT 17TH REVISION A Report of the Deployment Working Group of the Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee Approved For Relearb2gOt/k LCTIr-RDP78TO4757AO00300010016-9 25X1 ApprT)O f F eIR(ss 0QY=010016-9 25X1 1 I t The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Com- mittee (GMAIC) wishes to express its appreciation to the National Photographic Interpretation Center for its assist- ance in the editing, illustration, and publication of this report. 25X1 Apr(3,VdSptt~ i t 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approved For Reif 20000: tc[T IA-RDP78TO4757A0003000100 6-9 25X1 This report, published bimonthly by the GMAIC Deployment Working Group (DWG), provides a comprehensive, ready-reference listing of all ICBM, IRBM, and MRBM deployment locations, types of site configurations, photographic references, estimated construction and operational status, and other evaluations by the DWG. These data constitute the majority view of the DWG membership, and may not correspond precisely to individual assessments by each member. Additional data may be added to future revisions. Dissemination of the report was previously limited to holders of the DWG report, Soviet Surface-to-Surface Missile Deployment. Be- cause the information contained herein is both supplemental and self-sustaining, distribution will no longer be limited to holders of the above report. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Rele 6 0~Q.9126 E, T1 25X1 Approved FoTQPeaWfO b 25X1 10016-9 Page Introduction ............ ... ....................... ..... 1 Soviet ICBM Deployment .................................... 1 Soviet IRBM/MRBM Deployment ............................... 63 Table 1. Summary of Estimated St MRBM Launchers at Dep atus of Identified ICBM, IRBM, an loyed Complexes ............. d ..... 72 Table 2. Summary Evaluation of S oviet ICBM Deployment ....... ..... 73 Table 3. Summary Evaluation of S oviet IRBM Deployment ....... ..... 77 Table 4. Summary Evaluation of S oviet MRBM Deployment ...... ..... 79 Table 5. Summary Evaluation of L Test Center ......... aunch Facilities, Kapustin Yar Mi ....................... ssile ..... 86 Table 6. Summary Evaluation of S Positions) .......... oviet Fixed Field Sites (SSM Fixed ....................... Field ..... 87 Table 7. Composition of IRBM/MR BM Complexes ..... .. ..... 91 Table 8. Soviet ICBM, IRBM, and Characteristics and Perf MRBM Systems, Technical ormance ................. ..... 92 Approved Fof f3,p~aSe,.. C 20 E I/ 25X1 25X1 25X1 ApprovedTd(T3 25X1 010016-9 Figure 1. Deployment of Soviet ICBM Complexes ................. Facing 1 Figure 2. Typical Configurations of ICBM Launch Sites, and Explanation of Types ................................ 3 Figure 3. Artist's Concept of Type IIIC ICBM Launch Site ............. 10 Figure 4. Launch Site B(2), Uzhur ICBM Complex ................... 11 Figure 5. Launch Site A3(15), Tyuratam .......................... 12 Figure 6. Launch Site B2(16), Tyuratam .......................... 13 Figure 7. Launch Complex 1(14), Tyuratam ....................... 14 Figure 8. Launch Site G7(18), Tyuratam .......................... 15 Figure 9. Launch Sites K1 and K2(13), Tyuratam .................... 16 Figure 10. Site Support Facility at Type IIIC ICBM Launch Site ........... 17 Figure 11. Site Support Facility at Type IIIA ICBM Launch Site .......... 18 Figure 12. Probable Control Bunker Under Construction, Launch Site C(3), Aleysk ICBM Complex .............................. 19 Figure 13. Complex Support Facility, Aleysk ICBM Complex ............. 20 Figure 14. Launch Sites D(4), E(5), and F(6), Kartaly ICBM Complex ....... 21 Figure 15. Schematic Layout, Kartaly ICBM Complex ................. 22 Figure 16. Launch Site F(6), Zhangiz-Tobe ICBM Complex .............. 23 Figure 17. Schematic Layout, Zhangiz-Tobe ICBM Complex ............. 24 Figure 18. Artist's Concept of Central Launch Site, Type IIID ICBM Launch Group. .................................... 31 Figure 19. Launch Site K3(20), Tyuratam ........................... 32 Figure 20. Artist's Concept of Launch Site K3(20), Tyuratam ............ 33 Figure 21. Artist's Concept of Launch Site G8/G9(19), Tyuratam .......... 34 Figure 22. Complex Support Facility and Rail-to-Road Transfer Point, Tatishchevo ICBM Complex ........................... 35 Figure 23. Schematic Layout, Launch Group D(4-13), Ol.ovyannaya ICBM Complex ........................................ 36 Figure 24. Launch Group D(4-13), Olovyannaya ICBM Complex ........... 37 Figure 25. Launch Group E(14-23), Olovyannaya ICBM Complex .......... 39 Approved For Release 200 TOP SECRET 25X1 25X1 1 t v r t r 1 I 25X1 Appr~FaTr(BJ?eaSE6Rff(T9 26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A0003 O MO-9 25X1 ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) r t 1 t 1 Page Figure 26. Schematic Layout, Launch Group E(14-23), Olovyannaya ICBM Complex .................................... 41 Figure 27. Launch Group A(1-11), Tatishchevo ICBM Complex ........... 42 Figure 28. Launch Site A1(1), Launch Group A, Tatishchevo ICBM Complex... 43 Figure 29. Launch Group B(12-21), Tatishchevo ICBM Complex........... 44 Figure 30. Launch Group G(7-16), Drovyanaya ICBM Complex ........... 45 Figure 31. Launch Group F(7-13), Gladkaya ICBM Complex ............. 96 Figure 32. Possible Launch Group G, Perm ICBM Complex ............. 47 Figure 33. Possible Electronic Facility, Launch Site B(2), Olovyannaya ICBM Complex .................................... 52 Figure 34. L-shaped Ground Scar, Launch Site B(2), Shadrinsk ICBM Complex ........................................ 53 Figure 35. Artist's Concept of Launch Site B3(17), Tyuratam ............ 56 Figure 36. Artist's Concept of Launch Site G1/G2(7), Tyuratam........... 57 Figure 37. Artist's Concept of Launch Site G3/G4(11), Tyuratam .......... 58 Figure 38. Launch Site G5/G6(12), Tyuratam ....................... 59 Figure 39. Artist's Concept of Launch Site G5/G6(12), Tyuratam .......... 60 Figure 40. Launch Complex J, Tyuratam .......................... 61 Figure 41. Deployment of Soviet IRBM/MRBM Complexes .............. 62 Figure 42. Typical Configurations of IRBM/MRBM Launch Sites, With Associated Missile Systems ....................... 64 Figure 43. Bereza IRBM Launch Site ............................ 66 Figure 44. Nosecone Vans at Anastasyevka Launch Site 2 .............. 67 Figure 45. Soviet Nosecone Vans at MRBM Launch Site in Cuba .......... 68 Figure 46. Akhtyrka Fixed Field Site, Akhtyrka MRBM Complex .......... 69 Figure 47. Rozhdestvenka MRBM Launch Site ....................... 70 Figure 48. Launch Complex H, Kapustin Yar ........................ 71 25X1 Approved F ~elease 200 /tt91126 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approve Re9(eR i/ 25X1 I 25X1 1 t t t t t t Approved For Release 2003/ TOP SECRET 25X1 Apprnxip FoT QeaSE1/ p01Qq5'A19 INTRODUCTION This report is the 17th Revision of Evalua- tions of Soviet Surface-to-Surface Missile De- ployment prepared by the Deployment Working Group (DWG) of the Guided Missile and Astro- nautics Intelligence Committee (GMAIC). While information contained in this and previous re- visions is self-sustaining, it serves to supple- ment the basic DWG report Soviet Surface-to- Surface Missile Deployment, which provides detailed information on individual launch facil- ities of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces. The basic report, dated 1 January 1962 (Control Number has been revised and updated on a periodic basis. Further updating is accomplished in reports prepared and pub- lished for GMAIC by the National Photographic Interpretation Center. tinuing analysis ot previous missions and other sources have provided additional information on the Soviet strategic ballistic missile deploy- ment program. The new data are reflected in Table 1 and in the estimated operational status shown in Tables 2, 3, and 4. Also in this re- vision are the addition of a new Table 5 con- taining information on surface-to-surface mis- sile launch sites at the Kapustin Yar Missile Test Center, and Table 8 which lists the technical characteristics of Soviet ICBM, IRBM, and MRBM systems currently operational or under development. Cutoff date for information contained in this report is 20 February 1965. SOVIET ICBM DEPLOYMENT Significant developments in the Soviet ICBM deployment program since publication of our 16th Revision include confirmation that single silos of 2 different configurations are being deployed; identification of single-silo deploy- ment at 1 new and 3, possibly 4, of the 18 older complexes; additional single-silo deploy- ment at complexes previously associated with these configurations; and probable completion of the last 3 Type IIIA sites of the group begun in 1963. At the Tyuratam Missile Test Center, a newly identified single-silo site has been designated Launch Site K3(20). CURRENT DEPLOYMENT The number of identified ICBM complexes is now 25, following the identification of a new complex at Tatishchevo, near Saratov. The 25 complexes now contain a total of 323 confirmed and probable launchers in various stages of construction, of which 150 are soft and 173 are hard. Included in the hard launchers are 95 single silos. See Figure 1 for locations of deployed ICBM complexes. Of the 323 confirmed and probable launch- ers, 224 are estimated to be operational, in- cluding 78 in a hard configuration. In addition, we believe that 26 of the 36 launchers at Tyura- tam are operational, although not normally considered as part of the operational ICBM force. Eleven of the 25 complexes contain both hard and soft launchers, 4 contain only soft sites, and 10 have hard sites only. The number of launchers identified at individual complexes ranges from a low of 3 at Omsk to a high of 29 at Olovyannaya. We cannot determine the typi- cal number of sites or launchers which any individual complex ultimately will contain. In the past, Plesetsk has been the only complex at which more than 1 missile system was deployed. It now appears that mixed de- ployment is occurring at Olovyannaya, Drovya- naya, Gladkaya, and possibly Perm, since we believe it unlikely that the SS-7 or any missile 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved Fof(1)1 Jt Oa3 9I 25X1 Approved Re"CbRRpg3 Od16-9 25X1 of similar size can be accommodated in the single silos under construction at these com- plexes. The ICBM sites have been designated by type, as shown and explained in Figure 2. The single silos have been designated Types IIIC and IIID and diagrams have been included, al- though final configurations cannot be determined as yet. We have also included a diagram of the Type IB probable rail-served soft sites under construction at Plesetsk, although we do not know the final configuration or associated mis- sile system. Evaluation of all evidence received, since our last revision has resulted in the following changes at the complexes indicated, and at Tyuratam: DROVYANAYA, Launch Group G(7-16), Type IIID, under construction GLADKAYA, Launch Group F(7-13), Type IIID, under construction KARTALY, Launch Sites D(4), E(5), and F(6), Type IIIC, under construction OLOVYANNAYA, Launch Group E (14- 23), Type IIID, under construction PERM, Possible Launch Group G, Type IIID, under construction TATISHCHEVO (New Complex), Launch Groups A(1-11) and B(12-21), Type IIID, under construction UZHUR, Possible Launch Sites G(7) and H(8), Type IIIC, under construction ZHANGIZ-TOBE, Launch Site F'(6), Type IIIC, under construction TYURATAM, Launch Site K3(20), Type IIID, under construction. DELETION: KOSTROMA, Launch Site H(8), Type ILIA, abandoned. SINGLE-SILO DEPLOYMENT General We have now identified nearly 100 con- firmed, probable, and possible single - silo launch sites in early, mid, and late stages of con- struction* at 7 new and 3, possibly 4, of the older SS-7 complexes. We believe that this de- ployment program will continue. Recent photography of deployed sites and the Tyuratamn Missile Test Center, particularly indicates that single silos of 2 different types are being de- ployed. We have designated these 2 configura- tions as Type IIIC and Type IIID. Our analysis of these site configurations, and the deployment program associated with each, is presented in the following paragraphs. Type IIIC Sites GENERAL We have identified 35 sites of the Type IIIC configuration, located at the previously identi- fied single-silo complexes at Aleysk, Dombarov- skiy, Imeni Gastello, Kartaly, Uzhur, and Zhan- giz-Tobe. Each of the complexes, except Dombarovskiy, currently contains 6 confirmed launch sites. The Dombarovskiy complex, which had 5 sites when last observed on good photog- raphy in probably also has a sixth site as yet undetected. In addition, re- cently initiated construction activity at Uzhur, the farthest advanced of the 6 complexes, sug- gests the start of another 3 sites. The launch *To clarify our use of the terms early, mid, and late in referring to construction stages at single-silo sites, identifiable steps in the construction process have been categorized as follows: early stage, clearing and grading, open-cut silo ex- cavation, silo coring; midstage, silo under con- struction, silo backfilling; late stage, silo cover installed, final backfill and grading; complete, final configuration apparent; operational, equip- ment installed and checked out (estimated). 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003 9/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRETT Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 Approved Fol(9~RaSScELD / 6: CIA-RDP78T04757A000300 b14619 I25X1 25X1 t I 25X1 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 t I sites at each complex are separated by distances ranging from 3 to 6 miles. All 6 complexes are rail-served and all are located in the south-central USSR, in a belt generally south of that containing the 18 older complexes. Each consists of a complex support facility and a rail-to-road transfer point, in addition to the launch sites. The earliest construction at any of the single-silo complexes was begun in following the cessation of construction starts of older site configurations and subsequent to, or con- current with, abandonment of several second- generation sites that were in early-to-mid construction stages. Construction of the earliest single silos probably commenced about 0 and all of those currently confirmed were under construction by SITE CONFIGURATION Each Type IIIC launch site contains a modest site support facility and a single silo similar in shape, size, and technique of con- struction to the individual silos accommodating the SS-7 missile (and possibly the SS-9) at Type IIIA sites. An artist's concept of a Type IIIC site is depicted in Figure 3. Construc- tion begins with the digging of a square exca- vation approximately 100 to 140 feet on a side and an estimated 20 to 30 feet deep. Access to the excavation is provided by 2 earth ramps which, along with the excavation, present a U- shaped appearance. The next step in construc- tion appears to be silo coring in the approximate center of the excavation. Mensuration of this coring is difficult but the diameter appears to be approximately 30 to 40 feet. Spoil from the excavation is usually arranged in a neat flat- topped rectangle approximately 150 to 180 by 75 feet on one side of the coring, and a flat- topped square approximately 75 by 75 feet on the other side. In a few instances, the nature of the terrain has dictated that these surfaces be formed by cutting rather than filling. At several sites, the tops of these earth mounds have been surfaced with what appears to be concrete, suggesting that the earth mounding provides a hardstand at ground level, probably to facilitate future missile handling and servic- ing. No evidence of a structure under the earth mounds has been detected. The overall silo structure arising from the bottom of the excavation appears to be square, and roughly 60 feet on aside. Mensura- tion of the inner silo, which ranges from 25 to 30 feet in diameter, has been difficult on avail- able photography. Rings, which we believe are utilized to form the inner wall of the silo, have been identified on 2 occasions and a ear to have an inner diameter of about 25X1 The most advanced of the deployed Type IIIC sites are now in a midstage of construction, with ramps extending from the sides of the ex- cavation to the silo structures, none of which has yet reached ground level. At 1 launch site at Kartaly, it appears that apertures are located on 2 sides of the silo structure. These could be the flame exhaust ports inherent in a W-shaped flame deflection system which permit the mis- sile to fly out of the silo. At Uzhur, the most advanced complex, a probable hardened control facility and a probable interferometer (Figure 4) are under construction at Launch Site B(2). Cabling leads from this launch site toward the other sites in the complex. Control facilities are probably under construc- tion at Aleysk Launch Site C(3), Dombarovskiy Launch Site B(3), Imeni Gastello Launch Site D(4), Zhangiz-Tobe Launch Site A(1), and pos- sibly at Kartaly Launch Site A(l). TYURATAM PROTOTYPES We believe that the prototype of the Type IIIC site at the Tyuratam Missile Test Center 25X1 Approved F ,D-le V2nQ2/~126 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approve ~e J rf3/ 9/26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A00 is either the group formed by Launch Sites A3(15), B2(16), and Launch Complex 1(14), or Launch Sites G7(18) and K1 and K2(13), or both. We can see no significant difference between the sites of these groups at the rangehead, or between them and deployed Type IIIC sites. We cannot explain the wide physical separation of the 2 groups of sites at the rangehead, however. Construction of the group formed by Launch Sites A3(15), B2(16), and Launch Complex 1(14), was first observed in I and prob- ably began concurrently with deployment of the sites. All 3 sites (Figures 5, 6, and 7) are cur- rently in a midstage of construction and are joined by what appear to be cable ditches. A probable hardened control facility and an L- shaped interferometer are under construction at Launch Complex 1(14), indicating that control of all 3 sites will be exercised from a. common facility. The probable control facility is located at the apex of the L. Construction of the group formed by Launch Sites G7(18) and K1 and K2(13) was first ob- served in II and probably began in s with the other group, all 3 sites are in a midstage of construction and all are connected by probable cable ditches (Figures 8 and 9). A probable hardened control tacility and an L-shaped interferometer are under construction at Launch Site G7(18), but none can be observed at the 2 associated sites. DEPLOYMENT PATTERN Although the pattern at deployed complexes is far less clear than at Tyuratam, the majority of the DWG believes, based on analysis of available evidence, that deployment of Type IIIC sites will be in groups of 3, with a common control and guidance facility located at 1 launch facility. (One member believes that until such time as a second interferometer is confirmed groups of 6 sites are equally likely.) We further believe that redundant cabling will interconnect Approved For Release 2003/q TOP SECRET X10016-9 the launch and control facilities of 2 or more groups in such a manner as to permit maximum flexibility in the event that 1 control center and/ or guidance facility is rendered inoperative. In making this judgment we examined what appeared to 'ae 3 possible alternatives: (1) each site an entity, (2) groups of 3 sites, and (3) groups of 6 sites. We eliminated the first alternative because there is good evidence that not all sites will contain control /guidance facilities. The third alternative seems less likely than the second because of construction timing (starts for some groups of 6 sites were spread out over relatively long periods of time, including a 10-month period at 1 complex). The group of 3 sites appears the most logical in view of the prototype groups at Tyuratam, construction timing observed, and the demonstrated proclivity of the Soviets for groups of 3 at the older SS-7 and SS-8 hard sites. Additionally, at Aleysk and Imeni Castello, the only complexes where security fences can be identified at all 6 sites, 2 fences are of the large size and configuration reminiscent of Launch Complex 1(14) and Launch Site G7(18) at Tyuratam, while the other 4 are too small to accommodate interferometers. CONSTRUCTION TIMING Construction of Type IIIC sites has been progressing more slowly than we had originally anticipated, or can fully understand in view of the similarity between this type of single silo and the earlier SS-7 variety. Some of the later Type IIIA sites were apparently completed in 17 months. The earliest of the Type IIIC sites have now been under construction for more than a year and have not yet reached a late stage of construction. As backfilling and other construc- tion procedures are difficult during the winter months, we expect to see considerably greater progress with the advent of warmer weather. We believe, however, that it will take a minimum of 18 to 21 months for the "brick and mortar" 25X1 t t Approved Fob(Wa$E 26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300 1?M19 25X1 phase of silo construction to be completed at the most advanced of the deployed sites. With additional time for the installation and checkout of equipment, we believe that it will take a minimum of 21 to 24 months for each of these groups of sites to become operational. Since we have estimated that Type IIIC sites will be employed in groups of 3, we are assuming also that they will become operational in the same manner, although we do not exclude the possibility that 1 or 2 silos of each group could have a somewhat earlier emergency capability. In order to estimate probable completion dates, we have attempted to determine the op- erational groups of Type IIIC sites at each complex, based on geographical location, con- struction timing, and actual or postulated lo- cation of sites containing control/guidance fa- cilities. The resultant groupings, listed below, are very tenuous. However, reasonable alterna- tives within each complex will not materially affect estimated operational dates. Aleysk Launch Sites A(1),B(2),C(3) Launch Sites D(4),E(5),F(6) Dombarovskiy Launch Sites A(4),B(3),C(2) Launch Sites D(1),E(6),F (assumed) Imeni Gastello Launch Sites A(1),D(4),E(5) Launch Sites B(2),C(3),F(6) Kartaly Launch Sites A(1),E(5),F(6) Launch Sites B(2),C(3),D(4) Uzhur Launch Sites A(1),B(2),E(5) Launch Sites C(3),D(4),F(6) Zhangiz-Tobe Launch Sites A(1),B(2),C(3) Launch Sites D(4),E(5),F(6) of starting dates for the tentative groups of 3 sites within each complex.* Our estimated op- *Estimated starting dates represent the majority view of the DWG membership and may not correspond precisely to individual assessments by each member. erational dates for these groups are contained in Table 2 and are based on a 21- to 24-month construction period, beginning with the start of the first site in each group. LOGISTIC SUPPORT Logistic support facilities at each of the 6 complexes associated with Type IIIC site de- ployment consists of a complex support facil- ity, a rail-to-road transfer point, and relatively limited individual site support facilities. All of these facilities are currently in varying stages of construction and assessment is difficult at this stage in the deployment program. However, a general comparison can be made with similar facilities at the 18 older ICBM complexes. Complex support facilities at the older complexes vary significantly in terms of area and extent of facilities. The number of buildings, for example, ranges from a low of approxi- mately 45 at Gladkaya to a high of about 230 at Verkhnyaya Salda. From present evidence, it appears that, in terms of numbers of buildings, the complex support facilities at the newer complexes will equate to the smallest of the old. It is too early to attempt a detailed comparison of complex support facilities at the older and newer complexes, but the newer complexes do have a facility that is not apparent at the older complexes. It consists of an adjacent secured area approximately 1,100 by 900 feet containing 9 to 11 large rectangular buildings and 10 to 15 other buildings of various sizes, including 1 that is T-shaped. The function of this facility cannot be determined at the present time. Rail-to-road transfer points at the 6 newer complexes are in an early stage of construction and we have no basis as yet to compare them with similar facilities at the older complexes. The relative location of the transfer points is identical at both the newer and older complexes, i.e., between the complex support facilities and the launch sites, indicating that incoming mis- Approved Fof ,~Jea t20RET 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approve FRci/ 3946016-9 25X1 siles and associated equipment will go directly to the launch sites from the rail-to-road trans- fer point. Site support facilities at Type IIIC sites apparently will be much more limited than at comparable hard sites at the older complexes. In general they are being constructed concur- rently with the launch facility and consist of 2 to 5 rectangular buildings approximately 150 by 50 feet (Figure 10). At the older complexes, site support facilities are much larger, contain- ing an administration and housing section, as well as what appears to be a technical support section (Figure 11). Previous assessments of the 18 older complexes have shown that no meaningful esti- mate of the total number of launch sites in- tended for a given complex can be made based on the size of the complex support facility. In most cases, if not all, the size of the complex support facility appears out of proportion to the relatively small number of sites deployed. Therefore, we do not believe it feasible to esti- mate the total number of sites that the new complexes will contain based on the size of the support facilities. DEVELOPMENTS AT DEPLOYED TYPE IIIC COMPLEXES of the Aleysk Complex. All 6 launch sites are in a midstage of construction, although snow cover precludes detailed interpretation. Aprob- able control bunker (Figure 12) is under con- struction at Launch Site C(3). Excellent coverage of the complex support facility was obtained on thel photography (Figure 13). This facility now contains approximately 115 buildings in the administration and housing area, l9build- ings in the railhead and storage area, and 7 buildings, including a 505- by 80-foot structure, in an area of unidentified activity 3,200 feet southeast of the railhead and storage area. Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET The Dombarovskiy Complex is covered by good quality photography on Launch Sites A(4) through D(1) remain in a midstage of construction, while Launch Site E(6) remains in an early stage. A probable control facility is under construction at Launch Site B(3), approximately 250 feet east of the silo excavation. The security fence at this site encompasses an area large enough to accommodate an interferometer of the type identified at Launch Site G7(18) and Launch Complex 1(14) at Tyuratam. 1 11 d (Figure 14) confirmed I The Imem Gastello Comp ex is we covere 25X1 All launch sites are in a mi stage o con- struction and a probable control bunker is under construction at Launch Site D(4). The fence at this site is also of the size and configuration required to accommodate an interferometer. Coverage of the Kartaly Complex on Mission Launch Sites B(2) and C(3) and revealed newly identified Launch Sites D(4), E(5), and F(6). All 6 sites are in a midstage of construction. Launch Site D(4), located 12.7 nm south-south- west of the complex support facility, can be negated in and was first visible in 0 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Launch Site E(5), located 11.8 nm west- southwest of the complex support facility, can be negated in I land was first observed in Launch Site F(6), located 10 nm west- northwest of the complex support facility, can be negated in and was first seen later the same month on Further coverage (showed apossible control bunker under construction at Launch Site A(1). A schematic layout of this complex is shown in Figure 15. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 t I t t 25X1 Approved Fgrcbeag1E tq9 26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A0003000 001&i 25X1 The Uzhur Complex is covered by good 25X1 quality stereo photography on All 6 sites are in a midstage of construction and, at Launch Site B(2), a con- trol bunker and L-shaped guidance facility (interferometer) are under construction (Figure 4). The segments of the guidance facility meet at an approximate right angle at an excavation which will probably contain the control facility. 25X1 t t 1 Each segment of the interferometer is approxi- mately 1,350 feet long. Ground scarring, prob- ably cable ditches, extends from Launch Site B(2) toward Launch Sites A(1), C(3), E(5), and 25X1 F(6). provided no new developments at Launch Sites A(1) through F(6), but revealed 2 possible new sites, designated possible sites G(7) and H(8), apparently in a very early stage of construction. Both areas of activity can be negated in 25X1 25X1 Coverage of the Zhangiz-Tobe Complex on (Figure 16) 25X1 revealed a new launch site, designated Launch Site F(6), in an early stage of construction. Construction activity at this site can be negated on IThe other 5 sites at e complex remain in a midstage of construction. A probable control facility is under construction at Launch Site A(1). An updated schematic layout of the complex is shown in Figure 17. 25X1 25X1 I Approved FMCP Ilser-1 9/26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approve Pgrkff 9/26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A00 p3q@,`(gO16-9 O 25X1 t t t Approved FfbPf legs&Vf 25X1 t t 1 25X1 Approved FcTr(fg3eeE":Fq'91 Of21 116-9 I Approved F Il ff 426: CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 25X1 ApprovedfC5 Fe~Me Rrp/~ aaoi6-9 RAIL EMBANKMENT (CONSTRUCTION ABANDONED) TO COMPLEX SUPPORT annow Blacktopped road Improved road Fence Earth mound Excavation 500 0 500 1000 1 -1 FEET (APPROXIMATE) Approved F~61Iearse,.~QET 25X1 t t 1 25X1 Approved 1000 FcTrSENOE MEg9 26 GROUND SCAR I/11111 lift 11 Paved road Blacktopped road Graded road on fill Probable cable ditch Hillock Unidentified structure Soo I Approved F?r.ReJease zQQ~9I9 TO RANGEHEAD MAIN ROAD 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved P021Q J 6-9 25X1 TO ROAD AND RAIL TERMIUS PREPARED SURFACE APRON / CONTROL FACILITY U/C L-SHAPED INTERFEROMETER U/C UNIDENTIFIED CIRCULAR OBJ EC -r /// TO LAUNCH SITE A3 Railroad Blacktopped road Improved road Fence Probable cable ditch ?!~! Earth-mounded structure Excavation Earth mound 25X1 t t Approved For Release 2003/ 9/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRET 25X1 Approved Fc'(r(Ie#e6E@Rg9 26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A00030 b(21116-9 25X1 1 t TO COMPLEX SUPPORT I Road Fence Probable cable ditch Excavation Earth mound 1000 TO LAUNCH COMPLEX K 25X1 I Approved F TCVe edV ?9126 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approved1F-DeLeF.e~V3 09/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A0003 Approved For Release 2003/0 TOP SECRET b0(259'fls-9 25X1 t 25X1 Appr~FoTGPa&E:fGRE)?/ 6 : CIA-RD P78TO4757A00030 010a5o(q 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved Fof Releagtet lff/ 25X1 ApprovecT(a /09/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A00 AQ010016-9 Approved For Release 2003/ TOP SECRET 25X1 25X1 1 25X1 1 improved Fqlr(9$?eeEeRf/q9/ 6: CIA-RDP78TO4757A00030 PROBABLE CONTROL BUNKER U/C FIGURE 12. PROBABLE CONTROL BUNKER UNDER CONSTRUCTION, LAUNCH SITE C(3), ALEYSK ICBM COMPLEX. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved F,oplease 0Q3f019/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approved ,e P-SR! ~V3 25X1 25 TOP SECRET 3MM016-9 Approved For Release 2003/9 25 1 roved F iea3E CM/ /26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A00030 02'QJ6-9 25X1 1 t 25X1 0 25X1 I 25X1 I Approved F.1 Iegj!d T1/26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approvedff Pel M k / 9/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A00030 (9gV-9 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 LAUNCH SITE B 25X1 25X1 1 25X1 25X1 25X1 2fl 25X1 25X1 I 25X1 t I Approved FT o6 PeIIaEse ff / 25X1 Moved Ftfr(13ieEffg9 25X1 LAUNCH SITE 25X1 pO129).9 25X1 Approved Ff6regird .Q. l 25X1 Approved To Mtw- / 9/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A00030 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 02vP-9 25X1 25X1 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved TF Re OP ISECIE' 25X1 25X1 25X1 1 w 25X1 Approved Fol aSiEfoRfmig~ 25X1 Type IIID Sites GENERAL We have identified a total of 60 confirmed, probable, and possible launch sites of this con- figuration in early-to-late construction stages at 1 new (Tatishchevo) and 3 of the original 18 ICBM complexes (Drovyanaya, Gladkaya, and Olovyannaya). The latter 3 complexes were all associated previously with the SS-7 missile system. Earliest construction of the Type IIID site configuration began at the new Tatishchevo Complex about Additional de- 25X1 ployment of this configuration followed at ~Olovvannaya and Gladkaya beginning about 25X1 lul and at Drovyanaya about a month later. The rail-served Tatishchevo Complex con- sists of a complex support facility and a rail- to-road transfer point in addition to the launch sites. Construction of the complex support fa- cility apparently began concurrently with that of the first launch sites. At the older complexes, the Type IIID sites are supported by the original complex support facility and rail- to-road trans - fer point, although additional support facilities have been added. DEPLOYMENT PATTERN The Type IIID sites appear to be deployed in launch groups of 10 silos each. The Tati- shchevo and Olovyannaya Complexes each cur- rently contain 2 launch groups; the Drovyanaya and Gladkaya Complexes each contain 1 launch group. Although we are not yet certain, it ap- pears that control of each launch group will be exercised from a central facility co-located with 1 of the 10 launch sites. The site contain- ing the control facility is in the center of a generally circular configuration, with the sepa- ration distance between adjacent launch sites ranging from 2.5 to 4 miles. Interconnecting cabling is evident between the sites in each launch group, and we expect that at complexes Approved Fo R P-Sr 2,Qwff bo1s2fX1 where more than 1 group is deployed, launch control centers will be interconnected to pro- vide maximum flexibility in the event that 1 control center and/or guidance facility is ren- dered inoperative. photography provides a fairly clear picture of the Type IIID construction program within a launch group. In general, all 10 launch silos and the control and support facilities are begun concurrently over a 3- month period. Ditches for interconnecting cables between the launch sites can also be identified early in the construction program. In the 2 instances where second launch groups have been initiated at 1 complex, a 5-month interval separates the start of the last silo in the first group and the start of the first silo in the second. SITE CONFIGURATION Construction of the silo begins with the preparation of a small, irregular, shallow ex- cavation. Coring for the silo is then accom- plished. The silo structure itself is circular, with an outer diameter of approximately 35 feet. The inner diameter of the silo is extremely dif- ficult to measure on available photography, but ranges from We have been unable to identify any fueling or equipment facilities in the vicinity of the launch sites, although we cannot exclude the possibility that additional structures are present. The probable control facility at each launch group consists of an underground structure lo- cated 400 to 600 feet from its adjacent launch silo. The size and configuration of the security fences at these sites, and their association with Launch Site K3(20) at Tyuratam, indicate that an L-shaped electronic facility will be con- structed with a control building at its apex. An artist's concept of the central site at a Type IIID launch group is shown in Figure 18. The most advanced Type IIID silo at Tati- 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approve dTF(R2e&E GRi/ 0601'6016-9 25X1 shchevo is in a late stage of construction, with backfilling apparently completed and a possible silo cover in place adjacent to the silo. Con- siderable work remains to be accomplished at the control facility, however. At Olovyannaya Launch Group D, 4 silos appear to be backfilled. These silos are covered, but we are unable to determine whether these are silo covers or merely protective coverings. TYURATAM PROTOTYPE We believe that the prototype for deployed Type IIID sites, which was discovered recently within a previously identified secured area con- taining an L-shaped interferometer, is Launch Site K3(20) at Tyuratam. A line drawing and an artist's concept of this site are shown in Fig- ures 19 and 20. The site can be negated in and was in a late stage of con- It consists of a single silo, circular in structure and apparently identical to the deployed Type IIID sites. It has an underground control facility located at the apex of the L-shaped interferometer. The con- trol facility was backfilled when observed in 25X1 Recent coverage, however, in- dicates that the backfill has since been removed. We also believe that Launch Site G8/G9(19) at Tyuratam may employ the same missile system as Launch Site K3(20). This site has been under construction during the same period as Launch Site K3(20), and each of its silos appears to be identical to those at Launch Site K3(20) and the Type IIID sites at deployed com- plexes (Figure 21). There is no guidance facil- ity present at Launch Site G8/G9(19), and the overall site configuration differs in some re- spects from the others. We can neither confirm nor deny cabling connecting Launch Sites G8/ G9(19) and K3(20). CONSTRUCTION TIMING Since it appears that Type IIID sites will be deployed in groups of 10, we estimate that they will become operational in groups, although we do not exclude the possibility that fewer than 10 silos could have a somewhat earlier emergency capability. The earliest Type IIID sites at deployed complexes have been under construction for less than a year and the "brick and mortar" phase of construction appears to be nearing completion. We believe that approximately 1 year is required for this phase of construction. We have noted that the 10 silos within each launch group are begun generally over a 3-month period, and probably require approximately 15 months for all to be completed. Adding a rea- sonable period for installation and checkout of equipment, the majority of the DWG believe that it will take a minimum of 18 to 21 months for each group to reach an operational status. One member believes that a minimum of 21 to 24 months construction time will be required for each group to be completed. The following list depicts the majority estimate of starting dates for identified launch groups within each complex*. Estimatedopera- tional dates are included in Table 2 and are based on an 18- to 21-month construction period, beginning with the start of the first site in each group. Drovyanaya Launch Group G(7-16) Gladkaya Launch Group F(7-13) Olovyannaya Launch Group D(4-13) Launch Group E(14-23) Tatishchevo Launch Group A(1-11) Launch Group B(12-21) 'Estimated starting dates represent the majority view the DWG membership and may not correspond precisely individual assessments by each member. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/ TOP SECRET 1 25X1 Approved FoIrGRAJECB /~ 25X1 LOGISTIC SUPPORT Logistic support facilities at Tatishchevo, the only new complex identified with deployment of Type IIID sites, consist of a complex support facility and a rail-to-road transfer point (Figure 22). Both are still under construction and are therefore difficult to assess. In addition, it ap- pears that the site support facility at nearby Bolshaya Kamenka, an abandoned probable IRBM site, is being utilized to support the construction effort at this complex. New construction at the Tatishchevo complex support facility appears somewhat less than that at the Type IIIC com- plex support facilities, but this may be mis- leading since it borders on, and may incorporate, an older facility of some size. The rail-to-road transfer point is in an early stage of construc- tion and its final configuration is not yet ap- parent. Like similar facilities at other com- plexes, it is located between the complex sup- port facility and the launch groups, indicating that missile components and associated equip- ment will move directly from the transfer point to the launch groups. At the older complexes at which Type IIID site deployment has been identified, some sup- port is probably being furnished from the estab- lished complex support facility and original rail-to-road transfer point. In addition, certain new construction appears related to deployment of the new single silos. At the Olovyannaya Complex, there has been a significant buildup of the auxiliary support facility near the older Launch Site C(3), and west of and between Launch Groups D(4-13) and E(14-23). Five large buildings have also been added to the rail- to-road transfer point since the summer of = At the Gladkaya Complex, there has been an increase of facilities at the administration and housing area 8 nm northwest of the complex support facility, in an area adjacent to Launch Group F(7-13). This addition consists of 8 large barracks-type buildings and 20 other structures of various sizes. At the Drovyanaya Complex, 14 new barracks-type buildings have beenadded to the housing area north of the complex sup- port facility and across the road from a sup- port-type facility. Three large rectangular buildings and a large T-shaped building have been added to this support-type area since 25X1 Only 1 support facility has been identified at each of the deployed launch groups. It is at the launch site containing the control/support facility. coverage of Launch Site D7(6) 25 at the Olovyannaya Complex in 25X1 shows this facility to consist of 2 adjacent areas. One area contains 7 barracks-type buildings, and the other a possible underground structure and a number of small buildings, 1 of which appears to be earth-mounded. There is no evidence of support facilities at the other 9 launch sites in each group. We are unable to determine, from a study of logistic facilities, the ultimate number of launch groups which can be supported at the Tatishchevo or older complexes. DEVELOPMENTS AT DEPLOYED TYPE 1110 COMPLEXES Olovyannaya Complex Coverage of single-silo launch sites at the 25X1 Olovyannay a Complex on provides exceHent High photography of the Type HID configuration and deployment pattern, and serves as the basis for most of the judgments which we have made in this revision concerning this deploy- ment program. Launch Group D(4-13), previously identi- fied, consists of 10 confirmed launch sites, designated D1(4) through D10(13). Launch Sites D1(4) through D6(10) are arranged in a ring around Launch Site D7(6); Launch Sites D8(12), D9(13), and D10(11) form a segment of 25X1 25X1 Approved F 5V'9t R_E 25X1 25X1 Approve Pz C9( M/ an outer ring on the northeast periphery of the primary ring. The orientation and approximate distances between sites are depicted in Figure 23. The launch sites in Launch Group D(4-13) are generally alike and the differences ob- served can be attributed to varying construction stages (Figure 24). Each site has a level access to the silo, consisting of combinations of earth cut or fill depending on the nature of the local terrain. Most of these accesses form either a T or an L configuration, with the silo in the ap- proximate center of one of the segments. The segment containing the silo, in each instance, is oriented on an azimuth of approximately 020 degrees. The silos are circular and have an inside diameter of approximately The outside diameter of the circular silo structures is approximately 35 feet. A small square, ap- proximately 10 feet on a side, extends from the northwest side of several of the silos. One small building is associated with each site. The buildings are in various stages of construction but are all similar and will probably be alike when completed. Each building is approximately 85 by 35 feet and has an extension approximately 25 by 10 feet protruding from one end. A small shallow excavation is visible near each building. Launch Site D7(6), the center site, is identical to the other sites in Launch Group D, except for the presence of probable control/ support facilities (Figure 24). The site is en- closed by a generally triangular security fence of a size and orientation compatible with an L-shaped electronic facility of the type observed at Launch Site K3(20) at Tyuratam. It also has an excavation at the approximate position where the segments of an L would intersect. No other site in the group has a triangular fence or one large enough to accommodate an L-shaped electronic facility. However, security fencing has not been identified at every launch site in 0OM16-9 the group, and it is possible that an additional control facility may be provided later in the construction program. Launch Site D7(6) also has associated support buildings which are not evident at the other 9 sites. Probable cable ditches connect adjoining sites in Launch Group D (4-13). Although some of the ditching has been backfilled, most of it is still open. The ditches terminate near the launch sites, but connections to the silos are not yet visible. In most instances the cable ditches appear to be aligned so that the connection will be made on the northwest side of the silo. Launch Group D(4-13), begun about F_ D is generally in a midstage of construction. However, Launch Sites D1(4), D7(6), D8(12), and D10(11) are backfilled and have a low square or slightly rectangular cover over the silo, probably an environmental shelter rather than a silo cover. These 4 sites are probably in a late construction stage. Launch Group E(14-23), newly identified on sites range from an early stage of construction at Possible Sites E8(21), E9(22), and E10(23) to a midstage at the other 7 sites. All are generally alike and the differences ob- served can be attributed to varying stages of construction,. The evidence indicates that Launch Group E(14-?23), shown in Figure 25, will be similar in all respects to Launch Group D(4-13). The centrally located Launch Site E(17) is the only one with support facilities and a fence large enough to accomodate an L-shaped electronic facility. Fencelines have not been identified at all sites in the group, however, and the possibility of an additional electronic or control facility cannot be ruled out. 25X1 1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRET 25X1 Approved FJTr ea&EfiRFT9 25X1 25X1 Launch Sites E1(17), E2(14), E3(15), E4(16), E5(19), E6, and E7(20) have the characteristic earth fill or cut which provides a level access to the silo. The silos are located along one segment of a modified T- or L-shaped config- uration; in each case the segment containing the silo is oriented on an azimuth of approxi- mately 020 degrees, as is the case at Launch Group D(4-13). Possible Launch Sites E8(21), E9(22), and E10(23) do not as yet have firm signatures, but the characteristic excavations, ground scarring, and general appearance, re- inforced by timing and location, indicate that they are launch sites in a very early construc- tion stage. A schematic layout of Launch Group E (14-23) is shown in Figure 26. Cable ditching is not yet apparent between the sites at Launch Group E (14-23), nor can we identify cable connections between Launch Groups D and E. We expect both to be dis- cernible on future photography. Tatishchevo Complex The Tatishchevo Complex, newly identified consists of a complex support facility, a rail-to-road transfer point, and 2 launch groups, designated A(1-11) and B(12-21). Each launch group contains 10 silos in the circular configuration previously identified at Olovyannaya. In ad- dition, 3 areas of unidentified activity west of Launch Group B(12-21) lead us to suspect that a third launch group may be in a very early stage of construction. Launch Group A(1-11) can be negated on and con- silos probably began shortly thereafter (Figure 27). Launch Site Al(1) is the center site and appears similar to Launch Sites D7(6) and E1(17) at Olovyannaya. This site (Figure 28) is probably further ad- vanced than any identified to date, with a loop road pattern evident and a possible cover in place adjacent to the silo. A probable control facility is under construction in an excavation several hundred feet north of the silo, but the segments of the interferometer are not yet visible. Cable ditching radiates from this site toward the others in the group. Launch Group B(12-21), in struction stage, can be negated on by All 10 sites were under construction Drovyanaya Complex Continuing review of I I revealed a probable Type IIID launch group, designated Launch GroupG(7-16), under construction at the Drovyanaya Complex (Figure 30). This group of sites can be negated that the sites are in a midstage of construction. Gladkaya Complex A group of 9 single-silo sites and a suspect tenth site is newly identified on at the Gladkaya Complex (Fig- ure 31). This group, designated Launch Group F(7-13), can be negated on silos in the group were begun in and that all were underway by II The center site, Launch Site F1(7), is the only launch facility to have reached a midstage of construc- tion. Cable scars radiate from this site to the others in the group. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved FoFU,I~asteK1 U,9 Approved ReSEQ I?OFi/ 25X1 Perm Complex A possible Type IIID single-silo launch group, designated Possible Launch Group G, is 25X1 identified on at the Perm Complex (Figure 32). The group cur- rently consists of 6 possible launch sites and 2 areas of suspect activity. Possible cable 302 ,Q916-9 ditching connects several of the areas of activ- ity, all of which are spaced from 2.5 to 4 nm apart. Negation dates for the 6 launch sites range from We believe, however, that if this is a Type IIID launch group, it was begun during late 25X1 25X1 25X1 I I Approved or-Relea 003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 TO SEVET 25X1 Approve FiTr(D(RefiEGRU9 26: CIA-RDP78TO4757A0003 00f:6616-9 25X1 25X1 Approved F &etse 2,Q I1jl9 25X1 Approved Fe&Ke RP/9 05th 16-9 25X1 t 1 e Approved For Release 2003/I TOP SECRET 25X1 Approved FcTrD(Refi[e f[j9~ Approved F~rety 2,Qp3/j9 26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757AO0030 Pb016-9 ApprovedIF@ fkeRKe Rte/ 9/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A00 30025M 6-9 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003409/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRET 25X1 F1WIeaE/i9~ A 16-9 25X1 25X1 125X1 Approved F I 6Qe J E Z,q W l r26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 'F?ReS~eR81/0 pprove OO1 i9 25X1 25 Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 25X1 1 1 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 25X1 C= 0 25X1 Ct ~' A 3 y N 3 ~' u Q_' O 3 O' n C O C 7 d tU ' O 0. w w j O (D C1 CL * ry O- N N n - 1 CD C Q n .d / / 25X1 v C." v a' Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 0 C!) m Cl m 25X1 25X1 ~o. ~c~c~~!?yrnrnT,l rn~ o m x m C o O N C O O n'0 Ct 0 C) Q N 7 (D C 3< fD F O_ d C Q O. Q fD N C) O - 0W O _d T n C O < C 7 O C) A O. < O. CD 00 O O_ 0 N N C n O 0 ft-ft V T mO mN z In n co mr (Ti '~ f77 r+l r" cn N O pp r r" r,9 Fri c.n Nz -4 o m c m n z mm 0 Cr) rn n rn 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09/26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approved FcTr(ITefF?ff9 25X1 POSSIBLE LAUNCH SITE E10 POSSIBLE LAUNCH SITE E9 26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A00030fi1k916-9 25 25 25 Approved Fof B agteWfflj 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved Pe&Ke RP/ (9416-9 Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 25X1 25X1 Approved Fatale&EE//9 OO1 a9 / IV 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved FiMPetZO1 If1t /26 : CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 Approved1?Pe@&Ce RE!/~ Approved For Release 2003/ TOP SECRET 25X1 25X1 t 25X1 25X1 Approved Fes g K C j 0101 25X1 25X1 Approved Y?IReIT/d 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 0?NOOT 6-9 I 25X1 Approve FcTrQRea%EGQfi(Tq~ I 25 Approved FONY"tNw 25X1 25X1 Approved 1ke&EQ RE)T3/ 3000?"-9 Associated Missile Systems We have examined all available evidence in an attempt to determine specifically the missile systems associated with the 2 types of single- silo configurations identified at Tyuratam and currently under construction at deployed sites. Our analysis included detailed study of both types of sites at the rangehead and in the field, assessment of the flight test programs of the SS-9 and SS-10, examination of new launch facilities (other than single- silo types) at Tyura- tam, and the time relationship between flight test programs and site construction. The re- sult of this analysis shows that present evidence is insufficient to permit a definite assignment of missile systems to single silos. PACE AND EXTENT OF ICBM DEPLOYMENT It is apparent that the Soviets have designed their single-silo deployment program to in- crease significantly the total number of opera- tional ICBM launchers and reduce site vulner- ability through dispersion and hardening. It is still too early to determine whether the Soviets intend to increase the credibility of their de- terrent force by the addition of a significant, but relatively limited, number of launchers in a comparatively short period of time; whether the rate and pace of new construction noted in will continue for the next several years; or whether the single-silo deployment program is designed to eventually match the US in numbers. This judgment cannot be made with any degree of confidence until we can identify the missile systems to be deployed in single silos, determine with greater confidence the number currently under construction, and ob- serve the rate of construction starts subsequent to completion of the silos begun during_ Succeeding paragraphs present our analysis of existing evidence relating to the pace and ex- tent of the single-silo deployment program. Construction of all of the nearly 100 iden- tified launchers which are currently under con- struction at deployed complexes (including 4 probable soft pads at Plesetsk) was probably initiated during calendar year 0 and there are probably other sites begun prior to which have not yet been detected. The nearly 100 identified construction starts exceed by some 10 launchers the previous high total for a single year achieved In terms of sustained construction activity, the total of almost 100 launchers concurrently under construction does not approach the pre- vious high of 140 launchers achieved in mid- This could be significant in light of the gap in site construction starts which occurred during the last several months of =and the obvious availability of construction crews and equipment from halted ICBM, IRBM, and MRBM programs. Furthermore, construction activity in the field is proceeding at a sustained but deliberate pace, particularly at the Type IIIC complexes. In summary, while the current ICBM de- ployment program is characterized by a launcher deployment rate somewhat higher than that of previous years, it appears to be less than a maximum effort and is progressing at a sus- tained but deliberate pace. We expect that construction of new sites at identified com- plexes will continue and that additional com- plexes will be constructed to accommodate deployment of third and possibly fourth genera- tion missile systems. STATUS OF OLDER SYSTEMS General In light of the significant deployment of single-silo configurations at both old and new ICBM complexes, we have examined sites as- 25X1 25X1 25X1 w 25X1 25X1 t t 1 25 1 Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 25X1 I I t 1 d FcTr?JPea&E fid9 26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A00030 010016-9 sociated with first and second generation ICBM systems for evidence of change or modification which might indicate a change in operational status. In particular, we searched for evidence that sites employing older systems are being deactivated or modified to accept newer mis- siles currently under development. A summary of our findings is presented in succeeding paragraphs. SS-6 Sites The SS-6 missile continues to be deployed at only 4 launchers at the Plesetsk Complex. These sites are active and there is no evidence of construction activity which might indicate replacement of the SS-6 system at this complex with a follow-on system. We cannot identify any ICBM system cur- rently operational or under flight test which might be compatible with SS-6 launch facilities. If retrofit were intended for these launchers, we would expect to see such retrofit preceded by firing of the new system from SS-6 facilities at Tyuratam. No such firings have been de- tected. We expect, however, that the SS-6 system will be phased out of the inventory when a more sophisticated system with equivalent or greater payload capacity becomes operational. SS-1 Sites CURRENT STATUS Construction starts for SS-7 soft and hard 25X1 sites terminated in I Further- more, 1 soft site and 4 hard sites, ranging in construction status from early to midstage, 25X1 were abandoned in 25X1 25X1 25X1 One hard site, Yedrovo Launch Site H(9), be- longed to the original group of 15 Type IIIA sites begun prior to Begun about I I this site was abandoned about fter having reached a mid- stage of construction. The other 3 abandoned hard sites, Gladkaya Launch Sites C(4) and E(6) and Kostroma Launch Site H(8), belong to the second group of 12 Type IIIA sites begun during the period All 3 were abandoned early in concurrent with the initiation of construction of the first single-silo sites. Construction of the abandoned Launch Site G(7) at Teykovo, a Type IID soft site, ceased in fallhile the site was in a very early construction stage. We have still been unable to detect any significant difference between the first and second groups of Type IIIA hard sites deployed in the field. Seven of the 9 sites remaining in the second group of 12 have instead of from 0.5 to 1.5 nm from the launch facility, as is the case of all other sites in the 2 groups. This feature, however, is probably related to improved handling procedures rather than a new or modified missile system. In previous revisions we have surmised that the second group of Type IIIA hard sites may be intended for the SS-9 rather than the SS-7. We based this postulation primarily on test range evidence associating Launch Site D2(9) at Tyuratam with the SS-9 missile system, since we could see no significant external dif- ferences between the 2 groups of Type IIIA sites in the field, or between Launch Sites Dl(4) and D2(9) at the rangehead. We had expected that the L-shaped guidance facility associated with Launch Site D2(9) at Tyuratam would also ap- pear in the field. To date, we have been able to identify a possible electronic facility at only 1 site, Launch Site B(2) at Olovyannaya. This suspect area consists of an L-shaped ground scar approximately 1,700 by 1,300 feet, located to the rear of the launch site (Figure 33). It can be negated in 1 ::1 No construc- tion activity is visible in the scarred area, and we cannot confirm or deny its association with 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved FQf ~e~asp2,.QQ31.0.9/~6 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 Approved-PE) Rees RIOT/ 9/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A000 1 b16-9 25X1 25X1 25X1 guidance at this time. We are particularly re- luctant to make an early judgment in this re- spect for 2 reasons: similar scars cannot be identified at any of the other 8 sites in this category; and an L-shaped ground scar has existed for some time at Launch Site B(2) at Shadrinsk (Figure 34), an early Type IIIA site begun late band completed about 0 We do not believe that the scar at Shadrinsk is related to a ground-based guidance facility. 25X1 If the sites in the second group of Type IIIA 25X1 hard sites are not provided a ground-based guidance facility, the obvious conclusion is that the associated missile system utilizes all- inertial guidance. The SS-7 missile utilizes an all-inertial guidance scheme and no guidance facilities have been observed at sites firmly associated with this system. While flight tests of the newer SS-9 missile indicate that it uses a radio-guidance link, we believe that it, like the SS-7, can be flown in an all-inertial mode without the requirement for a ground-based guidance link. In summary, while we are un- able to determine firmly whether the later group of Type IIIA sites is for the SS-9, we believe that this is the most likely possibility. Total deployment of site configurations identified with the SS-7 missile system con- sists of 64 soft sites (128 launchers) and 23 hard sites (69 silos) distributed among 15 complexes. All are currently operational. The later group of 9 Type IIIA hard sites was con- structed in from 17 to 20 months, a significant decrease in construction time over the first group of 14, which required an average of 22 to 24 months to build. RETROFIT We can find no evidence that SS-7 sites are being modified to accept a new missile system. There is no evidence that I 25X1 lat some early soft sites are being replaced with facil- ities identical to those associated with later versions. We believe that this change is re- lated to retrofit of early SS-7 warheads/nose- cones with later variations. We believe, however, that the SS-9 missile can be accommodated in launch facilities at deployed complexes currently associated with the SS-7. A variety of evidence indicates that the SS-9 has been fired from SS-7 facilities at Tyuratam. We cannot determine, however, the extent of modifications required to permit compatibility of the 2 systems. The best photographic evidence that SS-7 sites were being retrofitted for the SS-9 would be the construction of ground-based guidance facilities similar to the L's at Launch Sites D2(9) and H(8) at Tyuratam. No evidence of such facilities can be identified on available photography. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that the SS-9 will be deployed in an all-inertial mode with no requirement for ground-based guidance. We believe that our chances of detecting retrofit of the SS-9 missile at Type IIA and IIB soft sites would be better than at the later Type III) version, or at the Type IIIA hard sites. We base this belief on the fact that the SS-9 utilizes nitrogen tetroxide as an oxidizer. N204 is temperature-sensitive and requires storage facilities offering environmental pro- tection. We have firm evidence that Type IIA and IIB soft sites, unlike the other 2 de- ployment configurations, utilize mobile pro- pellant-loading equipment. Thus we would expect to see installation of fuel storage fa- cilities in the immediate launch pad area in conjunction with any retrofit program. We believe that Type IID soft sites and Type IIIA hard sites can be retrofitted for an SS-9 employing all-inertial guidance without detection based on outward change or modifica- Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 25X1 I t t t r I 25X1 t 25X1 Approved FolGPa R)T)/ tion of site facilities. Such modification did take place at Launch Site C(3) and Dl(4) at Tyuratam without photographic evidence of change. While we recognize the possibility that some SS-7 launchers may be retrofitted with the SS-9, we do not expect to see such a pro- gram occur at an early date. We base this judgment on the continued utility of the SS-7 system against many ICBM targets, the rel- atively large number of these missiles esti- mated to be in the inventory, and the apparent intent of the Soviets to accomplish a signifi- cant increase in the total number of operational launchers. SS-8 Sites CURRENT STATUS Construction starts for SS-8 sites, both soft and hard, ceased in the summer Four soft and 2 hard sites, all in early stages of construction, were abandoned and the Gladkaya Complex was converted to the SS-7 system beginning in The SS-8 system is currently deployed in 7 soft and 3 hard sites at 4 complexes in the USSR. The 23 launchers associated with this system are all operational. RETROFIT We can detect no activity at deployed SS-8 sites indicative of retrofit with a newer system. As is the case for the SS-6, we would expect retrofit of SS-8 test facilities and firings of the new system from these launchers Tyuratam to precede changes at deployed sites. There is evidence that a rail spur is being con- structed to service Launch Site E(6) at Tyuratam. It is too early to determine, however, whether rail service to this facility is associated with a new missile system. In any event, no firings of missiles other than the SS-8 have been detected from Launch Sites E(6) and F(5) at the test center. There is no evidence that the SS-10 has been fired from facilities other than Launch Site G1/G2(7) at Tyuratam, nor do we know the missile size or characteristics with any degree of confidence. Therefore we cannot determine the possibility of employment of this system at existing SS-8 sites. However, we believe that SS-8 missiles at deployed sites may be phased out during the next several years, because maintenance of the few sites deployed will become less desirable as more sophisticated missile systems become operational. 25X1 Approved FqT $eeagt 2yQQ3 yl 25X1 25X1 ApprovecT0 fRB eMf3/ 30UU1U'0'16-9 1 Approved For Release 2003 TOP SECRET 25X1 25X1 Approved Fo~&Pea~0OT9 126: CIA-RDP78T04757A000300 25X1 25X1 FIGURE 34. L-SHAPED GROUND SCAR, LAUNCH SITE B(2), SHADRINSK ICBM C LLX. 25X1 Approved Fob Releatt??Q(1$LQ8/ ApprovedTF FKe C9RECT3 5X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 TYURATAM MISSILE TEST CENTER Test Range Facilities Tyuratam is covered by poor- to-fair quality Highlight of this coverage is discovery of Launch Site K3(20), a Type IIID single silo located near the previously identified interferometer at Complex K(13). No significant change is visible at the 3 launch sites at Launch Complex A. A line drawing of Launch Site A3(15) is depicted in Figure 5. No significant change has occurred at Launch Site B1(2). At Launch Site B2(16), no change in the silo can be discerned (Fig- ure 6), but a 150- foot-long building has been constructed near the terminus of a road first the At Launch Site B3(17), a dome-like object approximately 50 feet in diameter is located in the center of the pad. No other change is identified on apparent at this facility since An artist's concept of Launch Site B3(17) is shown in Figure 35. No apparent changes in facilities can be discerned at Launch Complexes C(3), D(4), E(6), and F(5) since our last revision. No change or significant activity is ap- parent at Launch Site G1/G2(7). An artist's concept of this launch facility is shown in there is a vehicle on the pad near the gantry and 2 vehicles, each about 45 feet in length, are in front of the earth-mounded building on the right side of the center road. A line drawing and an artist's concept of this launch facility are shown in Figures 38 and 39. Construction continues at Launch Site G7(18), shown in Figure 8. The silo extends upward from the base of the excavation but is probably not up to ground level. The ditching is still open along the segments of the L-shaped electronic facility and the prob- able control bunker near the vertex of the L has not yet been backfilled. At Launch Site G8/G9(19), shows activity at both aprons surrounding the silos, and both silos may be open. The site apparently remains in a late stage of construction. An artist's concept of this launch facility is shown in Figure 21. No apparent activity or change in facilities is visible at Launch Complex H(8) since our last revision. construction at the single-silo launch site is continuing at Launch Complex 1(14), but dark- ness precludes detailed interpretation. A line drawing of this site is depicted in Figure 7. Launch Complex J is covered on I I This pho shows a rail car approximately 100 feet long on the rail spur serving Pad G4 at Launch Site G3/G4(11). In addition, there are 4 rail cars, each approximately 40 feet long, on the rail spur leading east of Pad G4. An artist's concept of the site is shown in Figure 37. Figure 36. both show the single gantry at Launch Site G5/G6(12) on Pad G6. The quality of the photography precludes a determination of wheth-_ 25X1 er or not a missile is in the gantry. tography (Figure 4,0) shows that the focal point of activ- ity is the large excavation first visible on 0 Qb fb016-9 The excava- tion is 2.9 nm north-northwest of Launch Site A1(1) and is the first firm indication of the location of a future launch position. The excavation is now hexagonal in shape with 2 earth cuts leading into the pit. There appear to be at least 3 levels within the excavation, but the bottom is obscured by darkness. The distance across the lowest level measures approximately 260 feet. Construction continues Approved For Release 2003/ 9/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRET I 25X1 I 25X1 I I 25X1 I 25X1 I 25X1 I 25X1 25X1 I t 25X1 Approved FTQPe&ECQElf~/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 I 25X1 on the massive 800- by 615-foot building east of the support facility. The low section, approximately 230 feet wide, is now completely roofed and roofing has started on the higher section. The rail embankment parallel to the main road has been extended to the point where the road curves toward the large excavation. I land com- parative review of previous coverage of Launch Complex K(13) revealed a newly identified sin- gle silo in a late stage of construction within the secured area containing the L-shaped elec- tronic facility. This silo and its associated interferometer have been designated Launch Site K3(20). The silo can first be identified under construction onl imagery and construction techniques appear the same as the silos at Launch Site G8/G9 (19), but the site signature is not the same. It closely resembles the center sites at Type IIID launch groups at the Tatishchevo and Olovyannaya Complexes. A line drawing and an artist's concept of this launch facility are shown in Figures 19 and 20. Construction continues at Launch Sites Kl and K2(13), which are depicted in Figure 9. Both silos extend upward from the base of their respective excavations, but neither appears to be up to ground level. Both have ramps extending across the excavations to the silos. Back-filling is not apparent and ditching, first identified and re- ported in our 16th Revision, is visible leading from these sites to Launch Site G7(18). Test Range Activity operations were noted at the Tyuratam Missile Test Range. n SS-7 missile was launched tote Kamchatka Impact Area, and on 30 January an SS-9 was fired 7,000 nm to a preannounced extended impact area in the Cen- tral Pacific. In addition, on an SS-9 missile experienced an early in-flight failure during an operation involving the extended-range Pacific Impact Area. Canceled ICBM operations 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For-Release 200 R 3/0 /26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 TOP SECr 25X1 Approved' f? pel8~e R@T/g9/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300 25X1 11 x t t t 25X1 I Approved For Release 2003/ 9/26 : CIA-RDP78T04757A000300010016-9 TOP SECRET t Approved FcTr(Da fpE GRf{T9 25X1 01 Qoj(-9 Approved Fyro a e2Q.QP91 25X1 25X1 Approved 1J fteeKee RE/Q 2 110016-9 25X1 t t I t I Approved For Release 2003/ TOP SECRET 25X1 t 25X1 Apprnme FipofleEflf~ Road ~c Fence Gantry track -;- Former ditch Drive-in bunker Earth mounded structure Unidentified object x Probable light pole Soo 0 Soo 1000 i i FEET (APPROXIMATE) 25X1 25X1 Approved F ease 20.0 16-925X1 \ TO LAUNCH SITE \ GB /G9 25X1 ApprovedfQ Pte,15Ke RUM 9/26: CIA-RDP78T04757A000 61 1b016-9 1 t t I Approved For Release 2003/I TOP SECRET 25 'bproved FcTrC9 TeOE R P 25X1 25X1 00& %16-9 Approved F?r. Ve azO.Q /?9/126: CIA-RDP78TO4757A000300010016-9 25X1 25X1 Appsl0rel IM RE ' 0002,O-9 10? 20` 30' 40` 50? 60 70? EUROPEAN AWA BARE g0ln NTS U.S.S.R.