DCI SUBSTANTIVE INTELLIGENCE OBJECTIVES FOR FY 1976

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4
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RIPPUB
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S
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23
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December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 14, 2000
Sequence Number: 
28
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Publication Date: 
August 18, 1975
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REPORT
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Approved ForRelease 200t1 J~a1 L2~. A-RDP78Z02 A000100050028-4 Nwl~ ./5' F' 75 uCI SUBSTNidTIVE: IiiTELLIGEHCE O3JECTL S FOR FY i976 PROVIDE RELIABLE AND TIMELY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS, ASSESSMENTS, AND ESTIMATES TO THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE US GOVERNMENT INVOLVED IN POLICY FOF,` ULATION, INTERNA- TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS, AND MAJOR OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ON: SU.6ST Aid T IVE OBJECTIVE d0. i Soviet policies, intentions, and capabilities for the execu- tion of political, security and economic programs, with particular reference to: -- changes in Soviet leadership and the dynamics of and factors affecting Soviet decision making. -- providing early warning of scientific and technical. advances which could significantly affect the US na- tional security or national welfare. -- major developments in Soviet military RDT&E of weapon systems, deployment, and order of battle. -- Soviet compliance with the Strategic Arms Limita- tion agreements, the Limited Test Ban Treaty, possible Mutual Balanced Force Reduction agree- ments, and the observance of cease-fire or peace treaty arrangements; Soviet perception of US and Allied negotiating positions and force capabili- ties with respect to these issues. -- Soviet extension of political influence and mili- tary power outside of the USSR. KEY INTELLIGEivCE OUESTIOrdS SOVIET POLITICAL DYNAMICS 1. What are the prospects for progress, stagnation, or cooling in bilateral Soviet-US relations? Approved For Release 2001 ,E J (b. RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 20012' F6iA-RDP78Z027 A000100050028-4 Include how the USSR evaluates the ['S as both adversary and partner. particularly in arms control negotiations, economic relations, and comoet_tion in major regions of the wcrld? 2. How are the political alignments and policy. priorities of the Soviet hierarchy and key interest groups dev-loping as the USSR undertakes the 25th Party Congress and looks toward a post-Brezhnev era? Consider what difference the eventual departure of the Politburo seniors might make in Soviet policy- making. 3. What are Soviet objectives and curren': nol i.c, the following areag A Western and Southern Europe -- with special atten- tion to Portugal . ^ 6JLXI" 2.1rPF --_ "f nc~w e~ e 7 c> Ct (~'~ ?-rte The Middle East, including attitudes and tactics tilities; bilateral Soviet dealings with the major a Lac k 1 H Qc E?q Lt regional states; the Persian Gulf ~IvO4~(~E~ctS(, ~aV~~eaSt LZuG~ EOLA) AsiaAin the post-Vietnam period. 4. In the Sino-Soviet relationship, what are the capa- tilities, intentions, and expectations of the two sides -- - 2 - Approved For Release 200f%2R-iii-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release CIA-RDP78Z0W7A000100050028-4 conflict, confrontation, accommodation, or continued uneasy stalemate? 5. What is the importance to the Soviets of imported Western technology, and how successful are they in acquiring it? Particular importance attaches to technology having possible strategic utility. SOVIET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES 6. What are Soviet objectives, policies, deployment plans and perceptions relating to strategic weapons and the strategic balance? Give particular attention to how the Soviets rationalize their strategic weapons programs and what goals they have set for themselves in the area of strategic weaponry vis-a-vis the US -- such as catching up, or attaining some sort of superiority. 7. What doctrine, strategy, and plans do the Soviets have for the command and control and use of strategic nuclear forces, including limited employment of nuclear weapons? SOVIET MILITARY R&D AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY 8. What progress are the Soviets making in early research and development and advanced technologies which could lead to significant qualitative improvements in existing weapons systems, or to the development of weapon systems based on novel technical means? - 3 - Approved For Release 200~LOEq'A-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2O174/2' 5i: IA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 v' 9. What progress are the Soviets making toward strategic applications of lasers and beam weapons? NEW. What are the prospects that Soviet dependency on space systems for support of military and intelligence operations will deter them from interference with similar US satellite systems? Consider how, and under what circumstances, they might attempt to neutralize any such US systems. SOVIET ICBM SYSTEMS 10. What progress are the Soviets making, and what are their objectives, in increasing the countersilo capability of their silo-based ICBM forces? Give particular attention to the accuracies of the Soviet SS-X-16, 17, 18 and 19 ICBM systems.' 11. What progress are the Soviets making in improving the survivability of their ICBM forces? Consider whether the Soviets are developing and deploying land-mobile ICBMs, and if so, what progress is being made. SOVIET NUCLEAR WEAPONS 12. What are Soviet objectives in nuclear weapons technology, and what progress are the Soviets making in 5 Approved For Release 200 / 25 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 1 1Ft/ ...,n ~ 1 +. r.., v Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100050028-4 SOVIET CRUISE MISSILES 13. What are Soviet intentions and progress in the development of long-range cruise missile systems for use against land targets? SOVIET LONG RANGE AVIATION 14. What is the intended size, role and armament of the Backfire force? 15. What progress have the Soviets made in development of improved tankers, a follow-on heavy bomber, or a stand- off carrier for air-to-surface missiles? SOVIET NAVAL SYSTEMS 16. What programs and plans do the Soviets have for the development and deployment of ; A~ SLBM systems, including modifications to existing systems? Include any changes made in SSBN operational practices and patrol areas, and command and control capabilities. 17. What progress have the Soviets made in development o f OKW&2A antiship missile systems? Include the characteristics of the guidance systems. 18. What progress are the Soviets making toward acquisition of an effective capability for trailing submarines, and for detecting and localizing them in the open ocean? Approved For Release M9 @R/0 CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 20701'15'" CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 19. What is the status of Soviet RDT&E, and what progress is being made toward deployment of, and reporting improvements in, a satellite-borne ocean surveillance system? SECRET Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100050028-4 SECRET SOVIET STRATEGIC AIR AND MISSILE DEFENSES 20. What progress are the Soviets making in ABM development, and what are their plans for further deployment? 21. What progress are the Soviets making in development and deployment of defenses against bombers and missiles attacking at low altitudes? SOVIET DEFENSE COSTS 22. What are the costs of Soviet and Warsaw Pact weapons systems and defense programs? include information on how they are financed; how they influence defense planning and overall economic planning and performance; and on how the Soviet weapons research and development and acquisition processes work. ARMS LIMITATION NEGOTIATIONS 23. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact objectives and positions in arms limitations negotiations? 24. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact intentions and actions with respect to adherence to arms limitations agreements with the United States? EUROPE: WARSAW PACT - NATO - MBFR 25. What are the size and composition of the Warsaw Pact and NATO forces in the NATO Guidelines Area (NGA)? Approved For Release 200 C~$T2 ` ' -RDP78ZO2997A000100050028-4 SECRET Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78Z02 97 -000100050028-4 4 26. What are the capabilities, yd-the strengths and weak- A nesses, of the Warsaw Pact forces for conducting a war in the central region of Europe without prior reinforcement? 27. What are Warsaw Pact views, plans and doctrine for con- ducting war in Central Europe, including readiness, mobilization e c and reinforcement of Pact forces? 28. What are Warsaw Pact. capabilities to fight a sustained non-nuclear war in Europe, including critical stockpiles and the operation of the rear services? 29. What are the strengths and weaknesses of non-US NATO forces for war in Europe and the intentions of these forces to .react in the event of war with the Warsaw Pact? EASTERN EUROPE 30. How are political forces in Yugoslavia evolving, from the standpoints of internal cohesion and international align- : ment in the post-Tito period? v~--~~Vr Approved For Release 2001/08 5:LTA-} P78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/08/2?F"&)T78Z02997A000100050028-4 1"K N-W~ IBC I SUBSTA July 23, 1975 (Revised) PROVIDE RELIABLE AND TIMELY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS, ASSESSMENTS, AND ESTIMATES TO THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE US GOVERNMENT INVOLVED IN POLICY FORMULATION, INTERNA- TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS, AND MAJOR OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ON: SUBSTANT yE OBJECTIVE. NO, 2 Developments within and policies, intentions, decision- making processes, and capabilities of the People's Republic of China in key political, military and economic areas which impact on important interests of the United States, its allies, the USSR, the rest of Asia and the more influential underdeveloped countries. KEY INTELLIGENC QUESTIONS: CHINA: INTERNAL POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY 31. What major trends and changes are likely in Chinese foreign and military policies relating to the US and the USSR. Include Chinese policy towards use of nuclear weapons and its general forces' offensive and defensive postures. 32. What are the internal stresses and alignments within the central leadership and at the key regional levels and how are these likely to affect the main lines of China's foreign policy and its economic and military policies? Consider how these policies are likely to be changed by the successors to Mao and Chou. 33. Will China maintain its economic development, and to what extent will it rely on the West to support its economy especially in areas related to its Military Industrial complex? Approved For Release 2001/08/2 & P78Z02997A000100050028-4 SECRET Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78ZO299000100050028-4 34. What are China's policies and activities towards main- taining and expanding its influence in the Third World, and do these policies contribute to disorder or stability? Pay particular attention to those PRC activities detrimental to US interests. 35. What are Peking's objectives towards these four key countries in East Asia; Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Japan? 36. Will Chinese and Indian relations with respect to the Himalayan States and Pakistan lead towards military confrontation or accommodation? 37. What will be Chinese tactics against and negotiating position on Taiwan? Also consider Taiwan's policies (particularly military) towards Peking. CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITIES 38. What progress are the Chinese making towards acquiring nuclear capabilities against the US and the USSR, and what is the status of their nuclear R&D technology? Emphasize locations and capabilities of delivery vehicles, and the numbers and types of weapons in stockpile. Approved For Release 2001/08123 - P78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001 /084Rrff $P78ZO2997A000100050028-4 July 23, 1975 (Revised) DCI SUBSTANTIVE INTELLIGENCE OBJECTIVES FOR FY 1976 PROVIDE RELIABLE AND TIMELY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS, ASSESSMENTS, AND ESTIMATES TO THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE US GOVERNMENT INVOLVED IN POLICY FORMULATION, INTERNA- TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS, AND MAJOR OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ON: SUBSTANTIVE OB_ JECTIV NOS Political and military developments and trends (including terrorism) in potentially volatile international situations of strategic concern to the US. KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIOBS THE MIDDLE EAST 39. What are- Arab (especially Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, Saudi and Palestinian) views on and strategies toward the major issues of a peace settlement? 40. What are Arab military capabilities, plans 25X6 and intentions? 41. How are the major inter-Arab bilateral and multilateral relationships evolving? Consider the implications of to changes in Iranian- Arab relations. / 42. What is the possibility for and implications of serious political and economic problems within the key Middle East coun- tries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Libya,.1,r'a'~ and Iraq) ? 25X6 10 - 4. U Appoved For Release 2001/ j j DP78Z02997A000100050028-4 SECRET 'Approved FoRelease 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78Z029977AA000100050028-4 SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 43. What indications are there of internal and regional instability in South Asia? Pay special attention to India, and the roles of Iran and the major powers involved in the area. 44. What is the interplay in Southeast Asia among China, the USSR, and the Communist states of Indochina? . Include the strategies and objectives of the Communist states; North Vietnamese and Chinese support to insurgencies, particularly in Thai- land; differences and rivalries among the Com- munist states; and the reactions of the South- east Asian countries. 45. What are the prospects for stability in the countries .of Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and for relations with the US? Include implications for US base rights and intelligence facilities, progress toward re- gional cooperation, and the impact of changes in national policy. SECRET Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 'Approved For Release 2001/08 C RPP78Z02997~A~000100050028-4 Noe 47. What developments --,domestic or international -- are likely to seriously undermine the political or economic sta- bility of either North or South Korea, alter the essential military balance on the peninsula, and increase the possibility of hostilities? WESTERN EUROPE 48. What international forces are affecting the larger West European states and the Community? Consider how familiar European policies and European relationships (in Europe, with the USSR, with the Third World and with the US) are being affected by: -- the energy and raw materials problems; -- international monetary and trade relationships; -- the course of detente and East-West relationship generally -- including MBFR and CSCE; -- conflicts of interest and uncertainties in North- South issues -- i.e., between Western Europe as Approved For Release 2001/08MC, P78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/ 2C ldf JRDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 World; part of the industrialized world and the Third rth European policiqs~oward Southern Euro -- the search for European unity versus national- istic forces; and -- problems within the Atlantic Alliance and with the US arising from the above and other factors. 49. What domestic forces are affecting the policies of the larger West European states and the Community? Include the economic, political and social forces within the European states that are affecting familiar patterns of European relations with the US, policies toward NATO, toward the East, intra- European relations and European policies toward the Third World. This question includes such widespread European domestic phenomena as infla- tion and its social, economic, and political ef- fects, the narrow political margins of most incum- challenges to governing moderates or conservatives bent governments, generational differences ,the Approved For Release 2001/08M .FDPA 9ttAO'O 000 28-4 Approved For Release 2001/08M P78Z02997A000100050028-4 N"WNWO from the left or splinter parties (including altered strategies of the Wes European commu- nist parties) and e? tab 1 ck,. important interest groups in labor, industry, students, intellectuals, and the media. 50. What signs of instability are there in Southern Europe? Address the present and prospective uncertainties in Iberia, Italy, and in.the Greece-Turkey-Cyprus triangle. These problems differ widely in origin and effects, but they add up to a situation of continuing volatility across the southern tier of Europe, with manifold challenges to US interests. They present dangers cwf]complicat to our tor Egropeary lies, and o~portun>i'ties /as well dilemmas to th tI8'R. Iberia -- The policies and politics of the AFM, the role of the Portuguese Communists and the other po- litical parties, Portugal's economic problems, and the questions of Angola and the Azores. -- The policies and politics of establishment and opposition in Spain as the transition nears. Approved For Release 2001/OfVEG %DP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/08/,;(3P78Z02997A000100050028-4 -"owl 'NW Italy -- Prospects for the PCI gaining influence and/or entering the government, the postureeof thecen- ter-left parties on this issue, and the implica- tions for NATO and US interests. Greece-Turkey-Cyprus -- Domestic and external developments affecting relationships among these states and between them and the US, other NATO states, and the USSR. LATIN AMERICA 51. What political, economic, and security developments seriously affect important US interests, particularly in major countries? Include blocs or alignments being formed among Latin American states and indicators of insta- bility of major governments. 52. What are Cuban attitudes and interests regarding the normalization of relations with the US? 53. What will the Panamanian government's attitudes and actions be during the course of negotiations for a new canal Approved For Release 2001 /08/2$ECJ - + 78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/08 2 6r 1 P78Z02997A000100050028-4 treaty and, if a treaty is signed, during the ratification process? Include willingness and/or ability to accept delay or breakoff of negotiations, or delay or rejection of a treaty, and plans for pressure tactics against the US, particularly a resort TERRORISM 54. What are the composition, intentions, and capa- bilities of foreign terrorist or extremist groups? Include their sources of funds and equipment, the possibility of seizure or production and use of weapons of mass destruction (BW-CW as well as nuclear), their impact on government policy and stability in their host countries, and any evidence that Communist or other coun- tries are influencing them, or rendering direct support. Approved For Release 2001/0$c/iIP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/08/ C~P78ZO2997A000100050028-4 NUPF July 23, 1975 (Revised) JC SUBSTA~JTIVE I T T Ei I IGENCE OBJECTIVES FOR EY 1O 6 PROVIDE RELIABLE AND TIMELY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS, ASSESSMENTS, AND ESTIMATES TO THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE US GOVERNMENT INVOLVED IN POLICY FORMULATION, INTERNA- TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS; AND MAJOR OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ON: SUBSTANTIVE OBJECTIVE -JO , 4 Policies, intentions and capabilities of foreign states other than the USSR and the PRC to develop nuclear weapons, chemical and biological weapons, and delivery systems and to employ them. KEY INTELLIGEAE QUESTI011 55. What are the objectives, programs and capabilities of countries other than the US, USSR, UK, France and the PRC for de- veloping or acquiring nuclear weapons and delivery systems? Include policies and actions of other countries (in- cluding nuclear powers) toward assisting the non-nuclear states in acquiring a nuclear capability. - 17 - Approved For Release 2001/0 lt I Pf P78ZO2997A000100050028-4 S.ERT Approved For Release 2001/ 4 22fDP78Z0297A000100050028-4 July 23, 1975 (Revised) DCI SUBSTANTIVE INIELLIGENC.f OBJECTIVES FOR EY 297E PROVIDE RELIABLE AND TIMELY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS, ASSESSMENTS, AND ESTIMATES TO THE PRESIDENT AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE US GOVERNMENT INVOLVED IN POLICY FORMULATION, INTERNA- TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS, AND MAJOR OPERATIONAL DECISIONS ON: SU STANTIV OBJ .GAVE NO-L-5 Major foreign economic developments and trends relevant to US international policy decisions and negotiations, particu- larly those related to energy, raw materials, food resources, and to international trade arrangements. KEY INTELL~GFNCE QUES IO S PROSPECTS FOR INFLATION AND RECOVERY 56. What changes in measures of economic performance are ex- pected for the major non-Communist industrial nations, especially Japan, Germany, Italy, the UK, France and Canada? Include these governments' domestic and foreign eco- nomic policies and the likely effect of these policies on the future performance of these economies and the US economy. MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS 57. What are the principal objectives of the major economic powers (especially France, Germany, Japan, the UK, Italy, Canada and Brazil) in the forthcoming multilateral trade negotiations? - 18 - Approved For Release 2001/08 l -4 pP78Z02997A000100050028 ? Approved For Release 2001/gARDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 Include their possible negotiating tradeoffs and the electoral and intra-governmental factors that affect these objectives and tradeoffs. Appraise the con- sequences of alternative trade agreements to the US foreign trade balance. ACTIVITIES OF MAJOR OIL EXPORTERS What are the changes in amounts and composition (by loca- tion, currency, type of asset and maturity) of the foreign assets of the major oil exporting countries, and what are their policies with respect to placement of surplus funds? 59. What are the policies, negotiating positions and vulner- abilities of the major petroleum exporters with respect to the production and marketing of oil? Include the effects on these policies and vulnerabilities of prospects for the development of new energy sources, particularly non-OPEC oil. POLICIES OF PRODUCERS OF IMPORTANT RAW MATERIALS OTHER THAN PETROLEUI' 60. What changes in production, marketing and pricing policies are the major producers of important raw materials or primary prod- ucts considering either individu- ally or in concert? Approved For Release 2001/O WDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 SECRET 'Approved For Release 2001/08/25 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 -WWI, NNOOF FOREIGN DEMAND FOR US AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 61. What is the likely demand (especially by the USSR, China,. India, Japan) for imports of wheat, soybeans, rice, corn and cotton? Consider the capabilities of countries other than the US (especially Canada, Argentina, Australia, Brazil) for supplying these commodities to the world market. 25X6FOREIGN TRADE OPPORTUNITIES LAW OF THE SEA 63. What are the negotiating positions and bargaining vul- nerabilities of key countries on the form and content of a Law of the Sea treaty? Give particular: attention to issues on which the attitudes and intentions of these countries are likely to be so contentious as to jeopardize pros- pects for a treaty even minimally acceptable to the United States. d Li. CLA~. ~_G ado. 4 ioG or Release 21/08/25 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 EApproved For Release 2001/08/?7 78Z02997A000100050028-4 culy G.i, 19 /5 (Revised) ADDITIONAL KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS NARCOTICS 64. Who are the majorr producers, traffickers, and financiers involved in illicit narcotics? Include their methods of operation, the location of their production areas, labora- tories, storage and transportation facilities, and how and by what routes and timing they move illicit narcotics to the United States. 65. How effective are the anti-narcotics programs of the countries in categories 1 and 2 designated by the Cabinet Committee on International Narcotics Control as of priority interest to the US Government's international narcotics con- trol programs?* Include the willingness of these governments to cooperate with and commit resources to US efforts to expose and prosecute producers, traffickers and their collaborators. Also, identify individuals in the respective gov- ernments who protect and facilitate illicit narcotics traffic. A li_At present, these two categories include Mexico, Thailand, Bur- ma, Turkey, France, Pakistan, and Colombia; consideration is being given to adding Ecuador, India, and other countries. It should be noted that countries may be added to or dropped from these categories by the Cabinet Committee on International Nar- cotics Control as circumstances dictate. Approved For Release 2001/08/W.gNR- ~78Z02997A000100050028-4 Approved For Release 2001/5> 1 tRDP78Z02997A000100050028-4 LESS DEVELOPE "COUNTRIE 66. How w'11 t e demands of the many LDCs whose economic prospects have b seriously retarded by increased costs of imports (manu ctured oods and energy), and whose export earnings ( articularly om primary products) have declined, t" Approved For Release 2001/081!(tFAMP78Z02997A000100050028-4