INTELLIGENCE PANEL OF THE NSCIC WORKING GROUP

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CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2
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RIPPUB
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S
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19
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December 12, 2016
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December 17, 2001
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5
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March 10, 1975
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MIN
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Approvedtr Release 2002/dZ[3-RDP78ZR2&997A000100200005-2 NSC Declassification/Release Instructions on File INTELLIGENCE PANEL OF THE NSCIC WORKING GROUP Third Meeting, 1400 hours, 10 March 1975 Minutes Members present: Lt. Gen. Samuel V. Wilson, D/DCI/IC, Chairman Mr. George Carver, D/DCI/NIO Dr. Edward Proctor, DDI/CIA Mr. Arthur McAfee, DD/INR/State Lt. Gen. Eugene F. Tighe. Jr.- nn/DIA NSA/CSS) DCI/IC/CS, e u ive 3ecre ary 1. General Wilson reported on activities to date of the NSCIC Working Group, emphasizing the effort has been primarily educational in nature and has focused on the elicitation of comments from Working Group members. He described the difficulties involved in initiating an active Working Group program as stemming from a number of factors, including the inactivity of the NSCIC itself. General Wilson emphasized that efforts are still under way to develop a constructive program under the "guidance and feedback" mission of the NSCIC. 2. General Wilson invited members of the Panel or their deputies to attend the 12 March meeting of the NSCIC Working Group, indicating the main purpose of their presence would be to enable them to raise questions and offer explicit comments where appropriate. 3. General Tighe thought Panel attendance at at least one Working Group meeting would be a good idea, and he wondered whether the difficulty the Working Group was having in getting a program under way might really stem from the heavy work schedules which each of the members had. It. Dr. Proctor asked whether there was a clear under- standing of the role the Working Group was to play, and General Wilson said such role may be only partly understood. He pointed out it had been decided to defer consideration of Terms of Reference until after the Group's program was Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-R SEIET ExF'1' Pc'.lat ['C1SS![IC,'.1'U)N SCIU'[tuL,r. C,. (.1. SI t ''.'?ii.P~.`3l ':.;.If.c(}'til': )PTZO299 A000.10020Q0O5, or +nnre) -1mpo2;;-1ble to Determ1 n 25X1A 25X1A nrAn Approvor Release LfflEf 5. Mr. McAfee noted the average policy maker is so overrun with responsibilities he has no time to ponder guidance--but might respond to initiatives from the Intelli- gence Community. 6. Dr. Proctor said he felt it was important to tell consumers how they can make the intelligence machinery work for them--where to go and what levers to push or wheels to turn. 7. General Tighe commented that about every six months someone suggests a return to the Eisenhower days of regularly issued policy guidance, but he considered this a vain hope. He wondered if the Working Group might be stirred to action by using them as a sounding board to elicit support in problem areas involving FOIA and the Congressional Select Committees. 8. Mr. Carver doubted that, given the personality and operating methods of its chairman, the NSCIC would really become a functioning entity, and he noted the limitation this posed to the effectiveness of a Working Group. Agenda Item 1: Guidance from the NSCIC to the DCI 9. General Wilson referred to the IC draft paper, "Proposed Guidance from NSCIC to the DCI," which had been sent to panel members on 20 February. He noted this was a strawman. 25X1A 10.1 1 provided a redraft prepared by NSA and General ig e als771uted a complete revision of the paper. 11. Dr. Proctor was convinced neither the paper nor its revisions would fly. He considered the real question was how the Working Group can be used. How can consumers help the Intelligence Community? They can be told how to use intelligence--so they can then tell the Community what is wrong with the product. He felt it was up to the Community to raise with the Working Group the problem which the Community wanted fixed. Dr. Proctor suggested the draft guidance paper not be raised at the Working Group meeting. 12. General Wilson agreed, and said he would not further pursue the paper. 2nda Item 2: A proposed program for the NSCIC Working Group 13. General Wilson distributed copes of a memorandum for NSCIC Working Group members, "Proposed Program for the Working Group," and described the three basic elements of the paper--action projects, informational papers and briefings. Approved For Release 2002/0517 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 mmi Approves r Release 2002/O --IP.RDP78ZQ2997A000100200005-2 14. "The explicit expression of uncertainty in intelligence estimates" was the first information paper listed, and General Wilson noted that Working Group members had indicated strong interest in this topic. Mr. Carver thought the topic worth raising, but he noted there are pressures both for and against quantification of uncertainty. He felt it would be worthwhile to alert the Working Group as to the difficulties involved in the phrasing of estimative judgments. General Wilson agreed, and felt the paper should be primarily descriptive in nature. General Tighe said that at some high levels quantified judgments are not acceptable, and he wondered whether any paper on this subject might not end up more confusing than helpful. General Wilson said the paper would respond to questions which the Working Group had raised, and he asked if there was any objection to preparation of such a paper. No objection was raised. 15. "A Handbook on Production responsibilities in the Intelligence Community" was the second of the proposed informational papers. Mr. McAfee asked if this had not already been done for the Select Committee, but it was agreed it had not. Dr. Proctor referred again to his automobile example--"Just tell them what levers to push and what wheels to turn." Mr. Carver was concerned that any effort in this field would "hurt rather than help." Dr. Proctor, however, felt that a paper, not more than 5 pages long, might be useful. It could cover matters such as what an NIL is for, and who is the focal point; what the NID is for and who is the focal point; if a customer is not certain what he wants, how does he contact the proper intelligence office, etc. General Wilson said a paper would be prepared to cover the subject in a "gross, broad sense." 16. "U.S. Foreign Intelligence Priorities," the third informational paper on the list, had been proposed as a descriptive summation of the intelligence priorities presented, worldwide, in the just completed revision of the Attachment to DCID 1/2, but the Panel discussion immediately turned to the kind of reports consumers might be provided on what the Intelligence Community is producing. I Isaid he 25X1A thought there would be interest in a report as to what E guidance documents are produced and on what schedule. Mr. Carver said NIO issuances cover what estimates have been issued and what are being worked on, but he wanted to avoid being put in a strait-jacket through a future-projection of planned estimates. He said the present NIO reports were deliberately designed for a particular audience and he doubted their usefulness to a body such as the Working Group. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 Approv or Release 20 0 J TCIA-RDP78z 997A000100200005-2 17. It seemed to Dr. Proctor that each Working Group member wanted to know if his needs were being taken care of, but he was not really interested in what was being done for others. This being the case, each should ask for what he wanted, and if the Community is not already responding then there can be a discussion as to what can be done. He noted that DDI used to put out a monthly report, but discontiz2ued the effort because only specialists were interested. He felt that if a special report were prepared for the Working Group it would be "looked at and lost." 18. General Wilson said if he were the Joint Staff Director or a State official, he would like to see a listing of what the Intelligence Community is publishing so he could note what he was interested in and could ask questions if he needed something else. He asked if this would give the NIOs problems, and Mr. Carver said no because the NIOs maintain liaison contacts which meet this need. Mr. McAfee said the INR office directors meet with the Assistant Secretaries of State on matters like this. Mr. Carver said that dissemination of the NIO monthly report could be expanded. 19. General Wilson said he did not envision a new or separate report being required, but he was concerned about a proper response to the Working Group. General Tighe doubted that the Working Group actually was a cohesive group as regards interest in intelligence products, and he hoped it would be possible to avoid institutionalizing any new report. Mr. Carver expressed concern that any such report could become a FOIA item and unnecessarily involve the NIOs. 20. No Panel decision was taken as to what the next step should be. 21. The fourth of the listed informational papers was "A Handbook on the U.S. Intelligence Community." General Wilson said the IC Staff had this under way, and General Tighe said both CIA and DIA had packages which might prove useful. 22. The fifth proposed informational paper, "The compartmented intelligence classification system" had been suggested by RADM Hilton, but General Wilson indicated he did not know why the topic had been raised for Working Group consideration. Dr. Proctor wondered if the Working Group really were interested in whether compartmentation really involves differences in communication. channels, in couriers, etc. General Tighe said J-2/J-3 had collaborated on a JCS paper on compartmentation, but J-5 does not consider the system satisfactory, and he wondered If RADM Hilton was looking for support for the J-5 thesis that compartmentation Is not really needed. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 tI e"a e~ n w4 + Approver ,pr Release 20SrDUETClA-RDP78Z0O29997A000100200005-2 Noe 23. General Wilson said he would advise RADM Hilton no paper would be prepared on this topic. 24. Dr. Proctor asked if it was intended the papers which had been discussed would go forward to the Working Group as briefings or as papers. General Wilson said he intended to provide the Group with papers, and back this up with briefings and/or discussions as appropriate at meetings of the Group. 25. Turning to the list of proposed action projects, General Wilson first noted that the Working Group had raised the possibility of its becoming involved in the development of KIQs, but that he had said it was the Group's role to express needs, but then to let someone else turn these into intelligence requirements. The first of the proposed action projects, "Inputs to Key Intelligence Questions for FY-1976" was intended to define a proper role for the Working Group. 26. General Tighe objected to any Working Group involve- ment in the actual drafting of KIQs, and Dr. Proctor noted any such involvement would really be by staff members rather than top level consumers. Mr. Carver said he would welcome a statement as to what policymakers needed, but if they were invited to express their needs it must be understood "their prose" may not be reflected in the KIQs which result. He welcomed suggestions and would give review and full consider- ation to any statements of interest which the Working Group provided. 27. General Tighe said, however, the suggestions should come forward officially from organizations and not through the Working Group as a corporate body. To General Wilson this posed a dilemma since the NSCIC is charged with providing guidance, yet it was being argued the guidance should come only from the separate organizations. As General Tighe viewed it, if the Working Group took itself really seriously it could become a super-USIB, and unless that was what was desired, care should be exercised in getting the Group too deeply involved in the expression of needs for intelligence. Dr. Proctor said that if he felt the inputs would "reflect true needs" he would favor it, but he was confident that would not prove to be the case. 25X1A 28. noted the Panel had been convinced any request for policy guidance would not fly, and to him any request for statement of needs was merely another approach to the same problem. Approved For Release 2002/05/4 7 CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 Q n Approve or Release 200 29WTlA-RDP78 0?897A000100200005-2 29. General Wilson said that if the Working Group could not do something in this area, it would have no reason to exist. General Tighe said the approach assumed the Group members function as individuals and riot as a corporate body. General 'Vjilson again asked--if the Group members cannot come up with an outline stating the areas of greatest intelligence interest which should be considered in the KIQ system, then why have the Group? ' 30. Dr. Proctor asked why the Group could not be asked to comment on KIQs after they had been formulated. General Tighe thought this would be worthwhile. Dr. Proctor said that if "intelligence needs" were requested, as in the proposal, each Working Group member would feel he had to come up with a listing of ten. Mr. Carver questioned whether, in fact, the real needs of senior levels would be reflected, but that if a list of 50 such needs were assembled and then cut back to 20 or 30 in priority order it would be valuable. 31. General Wilson said the Group might be asked how they would change last year's KIQs in preparation for next year. Mr. Carver said this is how the revision of the KIQs works. Each NIO has an inter-agency group, which examines this year's KIQs, discusses the need for changes, talks with both consumers and Community elements, and then is ready to go to the DCI and USIB. 32. General Wilson asked if there was any problem involved in providing the FY-1975 KIQs to the Group for their review. No objection was raised, and General Wilson said the Project, as stated in the proposed memorandum to the Working Group, would be "turned around." 33. The second proposed action topic, "Provision of Consumer Guidance to the Intelligence Community,' led Dr. Proctor to ask if this were not already being taken care of in the KIQ project. Mr. Carver said that since channels for consumer guidance now exist, care should be taken to ensure the NSCIC actions were additive and not duplicative. He felt detailed comments on this year's KIQs would be a helpful 25X1A type of consumer guidance. I mnoted that both DTA and NSA had different sets o consumers not represented on the Working Group. 314. General Wilson indicated he wanted to talk on the subject of provision of consumer guidance when the Working Group met. Mr. Carver wondered whether the men who sat on. the Working Group actually could speak for their NSCIC member, e.g., could Richard Ober actually speak for Dr. Kissinger. Approved For Release 2002/0 /17 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 SFrrwr Approved For Release 20 CIA-RDP78 ;2997A000100200005-2 35. Re the third proposed action project, "Critique ,of Intelligence Estimates,_ the consensus was that such an effort could prove useful. Mr. McAfee said that if the views of "top people" were desired, the less formal the project the better. General Wilson said the PRD/IC considered there is a need for a specific contact in each organization from whom feedback could be elicited. General Tighe doubted that any principal actually would analyze an estimate, 'he would have his staff do it for him. General. Wilson thought that if readers could score the estimate with an "academic grade" it might prove helpful. Several panelists thought marginal notes would be useful. General Wilson said IC would work something out on this. 36. Mr. Carver wondered whether this third project and the fifth one, "Systematic Consumer Evaluation of Current Intelligence Products" should be separately handled, but it was agreed they should be. 37. The fourth proposed action project, "Policy guidance re collection activities against friendly countries," was mentioned only briefly and the panelists agreed this was not a suitable project for the Working Group. 38. General Wilson asked if there were any additional ideas for possible Working Group projects. There were none, and the meeting adjourned with an understanding the memorandum, "Proposed Program for the Working Group," which had been discussed would be revised in the light of the discussion prior to being presented to the Group on 12 March. tive Secretary Approved For Release 2002/05/1j7 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 25X1A RE Approved FapRelease 2002/05/17' M - P78Z02WA000100200005-2 NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, WORKING GROUP Minutes of the Twelfth Meeting 1030 Hours, 12 March 1975 White House Situation Room Chairman: Lt Gen Samuel V. Wilson, D/DCI/IC Members present: Mr. Leslie H. Brown, Dept. of State (representing Mr. George S. Vest, Director, Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs) Mr. Robert F. Ellsworth, Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Affairs) Mr. William N. Morell, Special Assistant to the Secretary on National Security, Department of the Treasury RAdm Robert P. Hilton (representing Lt Gen John H. Elder, J-5 (Plans and Policy), JCS) Mr. Richard Ober, NSC Staff, Executive Secretary of the NSCIC Briefers: Mal General Lincoln D. Faurer Others Present: Lt General Eugene F. Tighe, Jr., Intel Panel Mr. Paul Walsh (for Dr. Proctor), Intel Pane]. (for Mr. Carver), Intel Panel VADM Earl ec anus., with Mr. Ellsworth RADM Donald Harvey, with RADM Hilton Captain Gerald N. Dyer, with RADM Hilton with Lt Gen Wilson kith Lt Gen Wilson Agenda Item 1? Approval of the Minutes of the 29 January Meeting 1. The draft minutes were approved subject to changes Mr. Ober proposed in paragraphs 27, 29, 31, and 33. Revised pages 6 and 7 of the 29 January meeting are being provided each member. 25X1A CLASSIFIED r.Y _.. L.iSSIPICA.TUIN EXEMPT 1 ;:'.r4 G' A.'L 01 CATI GOaY: b Sgl l , ( ~.I r M ,;IV of motif) Approved For Release 2002/05 EC LA~~ RDP78Z 29J76aQ A0KY2Dcte.rmi. nc (unle+. tmpuvvi6ly, Imitil dek: or event) Approved For- elease 2002/05/1 $.W~IP78Z02A000100200005-2 Agenda Item 2: Improvements in the Handling of Warnin.. Information 2. General Faurer's a er on "Changes in the Strategic 25X1?A Warning Mechanism" and paper on "Small-w Warning" had been distr u e previously. 3. General Faurer reported his Strategic Warning Staff of 10 analysts was still being assembled. The CIA, DIA, Army, and Air Force analysts are on duty; and the NSA, State and Navy analysts are expected shortly. 4. It is planned a report will be issued the last Tuesday of each month as a synthesis of warning indications. General Faurer said contributions were welcome and informal coordination should surface any differences in interpretation, but he wanted to avoid having to present the least common denominator in order to effect coordination. 5. During the month as subjects suggest themselves the Warning Staff will prepare special reports if it appears the Staff can make a contribution beyond that-of the individual current intelligence agencies. In a typical month, General Faurer expected "only a handful" of such reports to be dis- seminated. His Staff will also issue research reports not substantive in nature, but dealing with the methodology of warning. He also will issue Strategic Warning Notices, purpose of Which is self-explanatory, focus of which will be on the "Big-W" problem, but his Staff will be alert for any Soviet or PRC activities relating to "little-w" warning. 6. Mr. Ellsworth said he hoped the system for providing warning to users would err on the side of fast reaction and under coordination. He also hoped there would be a system for follow-up to Alert Memoranda and regular reporting on development related to the alert. 7. General Faurer agreed. He said the Alert Memorandum goes beyond the "Big-W" problem. It is his intention to recognize a warning need to follow-up, to monitor the situation, and to turn the reporting off as appropriate. He said that within DIA "little-w" problems would be handled the same way. 25X1A 8. Isaid an Alert Memorandum must be issued quicKly wnen, tor instance, the development is 15 percent likely rather than 50 percent. He noted that once the Alert Memorandum is issued, regular current intelligence reporting will provide a follow-on. He felt any "De-alert Memorandum" would be beyond the fact. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : ?:IA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 or_rr SECRET Approved For release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z0299,Z&000100200005-2 9. Mr. Ellsworth said the consumer might not be aware the problem situation was over, and he would still like to ;know when this had occurred. 10. Mr. Walsh said the reporting probably would indicate when the crisis was over, but if a special collection effort had been mounted, there would be an obligation to turn off' this effort. 11. General Wilson said that careful consideration must be given to situations in which "pulling down the flag" would be useful, and it probably would be better to err on the side of issuing such a report. 25X1A 12. I thought a summary-Alert Memorandum would be mos e y when the crisis situation changed direction or intensified rather than abated. 13. General Wilson emphasized that the present arrange- ment for the handling of warning was not easily arrived at. He noted there had been some sensitivity on the .part of ? civilian elements of the Intelligence-Community to having the Strategic Warning Staff in the NMIC alongside the NNCC. The advantage was that this put the Staff at the hub of indications activities and, in the event the situation escalated to use of U.S. forces, next to those who would act. The disadvantage was that political and economic aspects would be particularly important in some situations. It was to ensure that the Strategic Warning Staff was properly balanced that provision was made for providing civilian analysts to augment the NMIC Staff. He felt that if State, CIA and NSA provided the proper kind of analysts, there need be no concern about the handling of political and economic indicators. General Wilson said that when time is of the essence, General Faurer may issue strategic warning notices directly to the President and the NSC, with concurrent dissemination of the DCI and USIB Principals, but that normally the strategic warning notices are to go to the DCI, who will notify the President and NSC and take such other action as he deems necessary. 14. Mr. Morell asked if the group would look at the time involved in production as well as the time involved in field reporting and in dissemination. He said he had noted delays in field reporting, and in Washington needed data may not reach the analysts quickly. He felt the Working Group should pay attention to this. General Wilson suggested discussion of this matter be deferred until consideration of the Group's working program. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 :ILIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 Rrnnrr SECRET Approved Felease 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z029,A000100200005-2 25X1A 15. said the "Small-w" warning problem and function Involves the entire Intelligence Community and timeliness of reporting is an across-the-board problem. He felt overseas reporters should be sensitive to the timeliness of the information they were dealing with. 16. Mr. Morell considered that production analysts were more aware of developing situations than field reporters and that the analysts should alert the field elements as to situations which are being closely watched in order to encourage timely responses. 17. Mr. Walsh said delay in reporting on a recent OPEC meeting was an example, but an aberration. He said that CIA alerts overseas stations when there is interest in a particular situation. There may be delays in Washington, but analysts need time to question the facts and to make the data more meaningful to users. 18. Mr. Morell said he was thinking of the flow of raw material to analysts, and Mr.. Walsh said that the automatic cable dissemination systems under development would help.. General Faurer said he was surprised with the frequency with which telephones are used to convey first impressions, par- ticularly with attaches. Mr. Walsh said he felt DIA was ahead of CIA in this. Mr. Morell said Treasury finds telephone 25X1A contact useful. 20. Mr. Brown asked how "Little-w" and current intelli- gence connect. He noted State officials get daily briefings which cover the same material he felt Alert Memoranda might deal with. He asked if questions of timing or of the use of separate groups were involved. General Wilson said the same people may be involved, but the Alert Memorandum belongs to the NIOs and current intelligence is a responsibility of the DDI. u Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 SECRET Ap -m- -A Ear a 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z029000100200005-2 25X1A 21. said the principal difference between the Alert emorandum and normal current intelligence reporting is the matter of focus. The NIB may cover 15 or 20 situations, but the Alert Memorandum is a vehicle by which the DCI can inform senior officials of particular matters on which-he considers they should focus. Mr. Morell said that at the NSCIC meeting, Dr. Kissinger had indicated he needed something like an Alert Memorandum. Mr. Walsh said the Alert Memoranda serves as a means of focusing analyst attention on warning 25X1A implications. I ladded.it also enables a clearer accountability, an o r. Ober and Mr. Walsh noted that the Alert Memorandum would facilitate post-mortems on intelli- 25X1A gence performance in crisis situation. D and planned cable dissemination improvements. 0 23. Mr. Walsh said the Machine Assisted Dissemination (MAD) Program enables analysts to "eyeball" computer printouts and request what they want. The Automatic Cable Dissemination system, expected to be available in about 18 months, will enable analysts to receive cables without waiting for them to be indexed, as is now the case with MAD. Another develop- ment, several years off, will provide analysts cathode ray tube (CRT) support. 24. Mr. Morell asked.if this would be anything like the NSA system for electronic interrogation of files. 25. Mr. Walsh said that such developments are technically 25X1A feasible, as indicated by the NPIC files and progress being made with COINS, but compartmentation still poses problems. 25X1A 27. As related ents, General Wilson also 25X1A briefly described the system, in which seven--soon to be 11--watch officers can e on-line at the same time, and the meet-me-bridge being developed for secure voice interface among intelligence analysts. I Iwill be an extension 25X1A of this conferencing technique, so at a combination of printer and CRT can be used for analyst conferencing on text. He said these developments were intended to assist in the handling of intelligence during crisis periods and the handling of crisis situations by enabling more rapid coordination. 5 Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 SECRET CBET Approved Fsor Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78ZOZWA000100200005-2 A enda Item 3: DCI Objectives for the Intelli eg.nce Community for FY-l97 28. General Wilson said the substantive Presidential intelligence objectives for FY--1976 were essentially an NIO document, with inputs from a number of sources----major among which would be the comments of the Working Group. He invited comments. 29. Mr. Ellsworth said he had a number of specific suggestions, mainly relating to more detailed guidance to meet planning needs of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He submitted a set of written comments, and then noted that, in general, these comments requested that all material relating to the USSR be combined in a single objective, that specific reference be made to the need for intelligence on decision making in the Soviet Union, that weight be given to intelligence on the Middle East, that there be specific mention of Spain and Portugal, that nuclear proliferation and CW/BW be addressed, and that attention be given to Soviet knowledge of U.S. and Allied negotiating positions affecting SALT, LTBT, and MBFR. 30. General Wilson recognized the validity of these points, but wondered whether they might more properly be KIQs. 31. Mr. Ellsworth said he felt the objectives paper would be improved if it became more concrete. and less. vague in nature. 32. Mr. Morell said he shared the general thrust of Mr. Ellsworth's comments. On economic matters, he felt oil and the recycling issue should be addressed separately. In his view, Portugal, the Middle East, oil and recycling were all buried in Objectives 5 and 6, which he described as 'tcatch ails." He said he would be more comfortable if submitted the economic items. 33. Mr. Brown said he had struggled with the problem of relating objectives and KIQs and that State preferred to focus on the KIQs. Enlargement of the objectives list would involve a large number of "e.g.'s." State had organizational problems in preparing its comments, but he was more concerned with packaging aspects of the objectives than with their substantive content. 311. Mr. Ober said the NSC staff did not object to the general nature of the Objectives, accepted the format, and expected to focus primarily on the KIQs. lie said he would specify word changes for the Objectives. 25X1A Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 RET Approved ? or Release 2002/0 CIA-RDP78Z02WA000100200005-2 35. Mr. Walsh said that if a general list, such as the present Objectives, was tailored to become a "want list" of everyone, it would lose its value. Ile preferred keeping the Objectives general, using the.KIQs for matters of detail. 36. RADM Hilton questioned what was meant by "security" in, Objectives 1, 3 and 5. If the word meant "military," it should be so stated. He would put all the Soviet items in one objective, and the PRC'items in one. He wondered how Western Europe should be treated. Though much of the needed material comes from open sources and the countries are traditionally friendly, they could well be intelligence targets. 37. General Wilson said "security"-and "defense" were synonymous, and this would be clarified. He said the comments made at the meeting would be provided the personnel who would redraft the objectives and he would ensure the Group was kept current on developments. 38. VADM Rectanus said the comments he.had provided Mr. Ellsworth related primarily to re-formatting although there were several specific additions to the list. 39. RADM Hilton wondered why "strategic" was singled out in Objective 14, when what seemed to be meant was "military." 140. Mr. Ober said the NSC staff was interested in getting something on the leadership in China into the list. 141. General Wilson said he would be back in touch with the Group if any real problems arose in revision of the Objectives. Mr. Ober added that he would run the OSD comments through the NSC staff. 42. General Wilson commented that the Resource Management Objectives for FY-1976 relate to the substantive objectives, but address different problems. He noted there was close collaboration in resource matters between the DCI and the ASD(I). 143. Mr. Ellsworth suggested that the DCI task himself to survey the response of users to intelligence products, and Mr. Morell said he strongly supported this. He noted this had been discussed at the USID, and Dr. Proctor had made the point that procedures are in use to check with consumers. RADM Hilton said he thought this would be part of the Working Group action program. Approved For Release 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78ZO2997A000100200005-2 SECRET Approved F%-.,,Release 2002/05/1~g DP78Z029Qir000100200005-2 44. The Admiral also noted that not all of the resource management objectives related to resource management. In No. 5, he suggested that "provide" be changed to "coordinate." 45. Mr. Walsh said there was a difference between the DCI responsibility to "provide" something and his coordination role. As regards No. 5 (which relates to responding to Presidential and Congressional reviews and investigati&ns), the DCI must be in a position to "provide" the data. 46. Mr. Brown said this raised a problem, since in his view Congressional investigators would not accept indirect Community responses. 47. Mr. Walsh (after re-reading the objective) said that "coordinate" would not bother him. 48. Mr. Morell noted that No. 3 addressed "foreign economic intelligence guidance," but did not address political or military intelligence guidance. 49. General Wilson said the specific items under Objective No. 3 were those which had "burbled" to the top. The list was not meant to be all inclusive, but to highlight undertakings on which focus would be given. 50. Copies of the FY-1975 KIQs were provided members of the Group for reference, and Mr. Ellsworth said Defense would like a month to review the FY-1976 KIQs when the draft is circulated. Agenda Item LI: DCI Perspectives for Intelligence, 1976-1981 51. General Wilson noted that the draft before the Group included only Parts 1 and II of the Perspectives. Part III is still being written, and the DCI has asked that a Part IV be added to "take a 20-year bite." This poses difficult problems, but since technical systems now being evaluated will have a long life, it is important that a look be made far into the future so the Community does not acquire capabilities which will not be useful after 1981. 52. VADM Rectanus commented that 20-year forecasts are being made in other areas, without the benefit of an intelli- gence input. Approved For Release 2002/05/1 CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 EGE1 T Approved ~ Release 2002/0 RDP78Z02Yi7A000100200005-2 53. General Wilson asked whether the major areas of concern to Group members were reflected in the draft, which had been prepared by the Intelligence Community Staff and was still under review by the NIOs. The "Perspectives" is a DCI paper, but at this stage is open to change. 54. Mr. Ellsworth submitted some written comment and said he considered the draft so general it provided only broad orientation with respect to the USSR, PRC and Western Europe. He thought it would be helpful to have a clear statement of the need of intelligence on decision making in foreign governments. The paper made no mention of the need to understand the workings of foreign governments. He felt there was need for more attention in the-document in areas such as the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. Also, attention should be given to important functional areas, such as nuclear proliferation and arms trade. Mr. Ellsworth also said it would be useful if the DCI would disseminate a paper indicating the review cycle and draft schedule for his planning and guidance documents. 55. Mr. Brown asked what review the Perspectives document went through. He said there was objection in State to one or another of the paragraphs. He asked whether the paper represented a distillation of Community products or was a CIA view of the world. explained the "Perspectives" was not a direct distillation from existing estimates. It was written in the Intelligence Community Staff, coordinated with the NIOs, then submitted to USIB for coordination and, after DCI approval, submitted to the NSCIC for review. 56. Mr. Brown said he was still in the process of obtaining responses in State, but that some of the statements send State officers "up the wall." 57. General Wilson invited submission of the State comments. 58. Mr. Walsh said that the Perspectives represent a "new art form" and the mechanics to date may have been faulty. He welcomed the idea of a considerable number of people carefully reviewing the draft. 25X1A Approved For Release 2002/05/ i DP78Z02997A000100200005-2 SEUf Approved F,Release.2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z029W000100200005-2 59. VADM Rectanus asked if it was again intended the "Perspectives" would be submitted to the NSCIC, and General Wilson affirmed this. Mr. Walsh noted, however, that by then it is too late to do much about changing the paper. 60. General Wilson admitted the Group was addressing the paper while it was still in rough form, but this was being done in the interest of obtaining substantive suggestions at a time when they could best be used. 61. RADM Hilton said that if the "Perspectives" are the DCI's views as head of the Intelligence Community, they should reflect the views of the Community. General Wilson replied that the paper is considered by.the USIB, and he noted that last year the NSCIC passed the "Perspectives" to the Working Group to see if any policy issues could be identified. 62. Mr. Ober said the paper seemed overly pessimistic, and he wondered how much time was available for its review. He said that two weeks was not enough to permit full consider- ation in the NSC staff. He asked if informal communication with the NIOs could be used as a means of providing inputs. 25X1A 63. said the DCI wanted the "Perspectives" out by th L n rch, but General Wilson commented that it might be`possible to back this off. 64. Mr. Brown asked who was reviewing the paper other than the Working Group. Mr. Morell replied that the paper was really moving along two tracks--the Working Group and the USIB arena. He thought only one or the other should be used, but RADM Hilton commented that Mr. Morell was the only member of the Working Group who sat on the USIB. RADM Hilton felt that the fact the Group had been reconstituted as a "users group" was proof of the need for a users' input. 65. General Wilson described the "Perspectives" as the DCI's personal document, in which he expressed himself on matters with which he is concerned. The USIB principals respond on the paper to the DCI as their chairman. In addition the paper will go to the NSCIC via the Working Group. General Wilson admitted this is not "a clean and tidy process," but the Working Group had an opportunity to make the document as useful as possible. 10 Approved For Release 2002/05/17 ? 78Z02997A000100200005-2 Approved Fo J Qelease 2002/05/1 $ 6i DP78Z0299j&000100200005-2 66. RADM Hilton noted a semantic problem in that in one place the PRC is described as the "second most important" intelligence target, and in another place Western Europe is described as "most important next to the USSR." He felt it would be useful to include something on the impact of nuclear proliferation and nuclear power. He also considered terrorism was treated as an isolated event, but that sometimes it is a multi-country coordinated threat. 67. Mr. Morell asked how much time was available to comment, and would the Group meet again to consider the paper. General Wilson said he would speak with the DCI and be back to the members by telephone. Agenda Item 5: Report by the Chairman on a Proposed Work Program for the Group 68. Copies of General Wilson's memorandum, "Proposed Program for the Working Group," were distributed. The General said this was a preliminary thrust, aimed at pertinent and feasible selections in the context of the NSCIC charter. He described the program as consisting of action projects, informational papers and briefings. 69. He noted that action is under way in the Intelligence Community Staff to prepare all four of the information papers described in the memorandum. He said the fourth paper would be accompanied by a briefing. (These four are: "Handbook on the U.S. Intelligence Community;" Consumer Contact Points with Production Elements of the Intelligence Community;" "The DCI's 'Family' of Intelligence Guidance Documents;" and "The Problem of Expressing Uncertainty in Intelligence Estimates.") 70. Only brief comments were made on the four proposed action projects. a. Comments on Key Intelligence Questions for FY-1976 General Wilson said the NIOs were using the FY-1975 KIQs as the base list for FY-1976 KIQs so a review of the 1975 listing would provide a foundation for addressing the 1976 KIQs, which are expected to be available from the NIOs for review by the Group about 15 May. Approved For Release 2002/05/111CIA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 LU iII Approved FOelease 2002/05/17 : CIA-RDP78Z029000100200005-2 b. Critique of Intelligence Estimates General Wilson asked if the 15 April deadline for submission of the five requested critiques was "too tight," but no member so indicated. (NOTE: Paragraph 6b(2) of the memorandum inadvertently omitted paragraph (c) which read as follows: (c) The individual critiques would serve as annexes to a summary report to be prepared under auspices of the Chairman. The report and its annexes would be submitted to the NSCIC with a recommendation that it be sent to the DCI for dissemination as guidance to the appropriate pro- duction organizations of the Intelligence Community." c. Systematic consumer evaluation of current intelligence products Mr. Morell noted that much of what Treasury receives as intelligence products is not referenced in either the project on estimates or the one on current intelligence, and he wondered if critiques could be prepared on other products. General ]ilson said he was of an open mind on this. commented that if 25X1A something is working well, Mere is no need to study it. d. Provision of consumer guidance to the Intelligence Community General Wilson briefly described the project and asked Mr. Ober if he would be willing to chair the subcommittee which would present a proposed method of approach and study outline at the next meeting of the Group. (Mr. Ober nodded.) General Wilson said that he would be back in touch with the members on this project by telephone in order to tie it down. RADM Hilton said he had ideas concerning this project since there were various documents used for OSD/JCS dialogue which might be useful to the Intelligence Community. The meeting adjourned at 1217 hours. F e cutive Secretary CIC Working Group 25X1A Approved For Release 2002/05/17 :1CA-RDP78Z02997A000100200005-2 U-PUT