EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION COOPERATIVE EXCHANGE PROGRAM/ VLADIMIR ISAAKOVICH KEYLIS-BOROK/EXPANSION OF EARTH SCIENCES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-00798A001000100014-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 1999
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: September 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

URECTORATE OF
OPERATIONS
oved For Release 20009
Foreign Intelligence Information Report
JNTRY USSR DCD REPORT NO.
JECT Earthquake Prediction Cooperative DATE DISTR.
Exchange Program/Vladimair Isaakovich
Keylis-Borok/Expansion of Earth NO. PAGES
Sciences
E OF INFO. September 1975
THIS lS UN Vfy;.L'+Al,E.D lf` : ,\] AT'10N
253C1A
1. The US/USSR cooperative agreement on earthquake prediction, Area IX
of the`10 topics under the Environmental Agreement, is the most active
and successful portion of this agreement in terms of the actual exchange
of information and experience which is afforded. US scientists leading
the program believe it is working out very well because the Soviets
have committed a great deal of time and manpower to earthquake predic-
tion research, and their data are enhanced by the use of US equipment.
2. In the fourth quarter of 1975 and throughout 1976, US geologists will
continue observations of earthquakes in the Garin region of Tadj ikistan
which brag an in 1974. This work will be carried out jointly by Soviet
and US specialists and with Soviet and US apparatus. The seismic net-
work in Garm records small. earthquakes. During this same period, seismo-?
logists from the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory will study earth-
quakes which are caused by reservoir impoundment at the Nurek Dam.
Observations to record the spectra of earthquakes using a field digital
recording system were begun in Garm in July .1975. Soviet scientists
will visit the US during 1976 to study computer applications in the
evaluation of seismic risk, prediction using stochastic analysis of
deterministic models of earthquake occurence, and statistical techniques
for studying correlated earthquake events. Soviet scientists will also
attend meetii.gs in the US to examine the current seismic design of
masonry structures, A proposed joint: research project in masonry design
is to be considered which may include analysic modeling, model tests,
shaking table experiments, and explosition tests.
3. The principle problem in the exchange is that the US wishes to send
scientists to the USSR for study, but the Soviets have not provided
aerial, photography which geologists typically need for preliminary study.
Such maps are presumably available in the US, but US directors of the
program do not wish to undertake any exchange work unless the Soviets
acknowledge that these maps should be provided. The geologic portion has
therefore been somewhat held up. The Soviet scientists are sympathetic
to the US request, but appear to have been restrained by a Soviet
bureaucratic rule prohibiting the provision of aerial photographs of
the USSR to foreigners.
4. The majority of earthquake research in the USSR is carried out under the
direction of Dr M A Sadovskiy, Institute of Physics of the Earth, Academy
of Sciences. He and Dr Vi:achnir Isaacovich Knvlis-'Borok, Head of the
Department of. Computational Geophysics, Institute of Physics of the
'ARNING ,NOTICE--SENSITIVE
1I ;~.L G i~,C ; OURCES AND
M 1dOi)S INVOLVED
sSe4,:NAAPPrA9YP,.f F9-' rRP:l e-19P9P{PA/PAH,1Pl -f! ??itq;P9
Classified iuy_00,795_._,
c:cnnruI duclcsi~ii;utlon 'ciicdu~u r s.o. 11:::,:,
L-P on u,i.',ocy 5G!2). Im;rut:a Ia uawc?
mina c:a;u of a ,)muh1;. uack.,:~Lc.u,c-1, 1
 C-O--N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L 1
Approved For Release IA- DP79-00798A00100010 4-1
Earth, attended the International Union of Geodosy and Geophysics
(IUGG) meeting in Grenoble, France. A number of US scientists with
whom Keylis-Borok had worked regard him as one of the most brilliant
geophysicists in the world, and have been concerned by his absence
at international meetings. He is an outspoken individual, and there
was apprehension that his candor may have gotten him into political
difficulty. Conversations with him we::e exclusively of a professional
nature.' He seemed at ease, and satisfied with his work. He is work-
ing on a joint project which includes two US scientists comparing
algorithms for the mathematical prediction of earthquakes and computa-
tion of seismic risk. These cover parts of the western US and seismi-
cally active parts of the USSR. This work concerns the use of pattern
recognition techniques for determining the relationship between earth-
quakes and other features eg, rugged topography, geothermal areas,
active faults, etc. The research which Keylis-Borok and his US asso-
ciates have done on this project is to be presented in a paper at the
Meeting of an American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, California,
in early December 1975. It is hoped that Keylis-Borok will attend the
San Francisco meeting.
6. The US delegation took a train from Moscow to Barok, about three hundred
kms north of Moscow, to the Institute for Biology of Inland Waters,
Academy of Sciences. Sadovskiy was spending the summer there and-her.snai-
caLeththet---t,he Soviets are going tb:move a group of scientists from Moscow
to -the.I:stitute=-in Barok to conduct rock magnetism research. The only
study group previously located at Barok was a geomagnetic observatory,
staffed by only a few individuals monitoring instruments.
O N-F--I-D-F-N-T-I-A-L
4Vl.II:~ING NOTICE, -? SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES AND METHODS INVOI VEj
Approved For Release 2000/09/06 : CIA-RDP79-00798AO01000100014-1
rdsnL1T( r snu, E 1 T 1 0 N B