CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4
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RIPPUB
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S
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17
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December 15, 2016
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May 6, 2004
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1
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Publication Date: 
October 8, 1954
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REPORT
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A On= d For,,Dlease 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-0092 ,Q,A00 14 jF?'E,4T*' OCI NO. 0627 8 October 1954 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY. AUT DATE EVIEWER:.1 NEXT REVIEW DATE: DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLAS Cl ' DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE .SE comrwriw DIA and DOS review(s) completed. Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fd%j1elease 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-0092W00300240001-4 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly has been prepared prima- rily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and conclusions represent the im- mediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Forgolease 2004/060FA - ~-RDP79-0092WO0300240001-4 THE SOVIET WORLD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4 VIET MINH ARMY UNDERGOING EXTENSIVE REORGANIZATION AND INCREASING ITS FIRE POWER . . . . . . . . . . . Page 6 The Viet Minh army is undergoing an extensive reorganization e reorganization is being accomplished largely through a reclassification of personnel already under arms and is made possible only by the continued heavy flow of illegal arms shipments from Communist China. The Viet Minh may hope to use its armed forces to influence the elec- tions scheduled for 1956, and in any event would be in a favorable position for a rapid conquest of the entire country. NEHRU'S FORTHCOMING VISIT TO PEIPING . . . . . . Page 7 Indian prime minister Nehru's visit to Communist China in mid-October is unlikely to result in any formal agreement other than a joint communique reit- erating the desire of the two countries to live peace- fully side by side. CURRENT SOVIET ATTENTION TO CHINA . . . . . . . . . . Page 9 The Soviet Union has utilized the fifth anni- versary of the founding of the Chinese People's Republic to make its most lavish demonstration to date of friendship and regard for China. The atten- tion showered on Peiping would seem to indicate Soviet willingness to grant China the prestige of a great-power ally. In their public statements, how- ever, the Soviet leaders give no indication of in- creased military and economic support. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 2 wr vrv ~~ir ttl m 3ar r l IA L 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For Ijtease 2004/06/2g-;,C&RDP79-00927A&90300240001-4 FRENCH PERSONNEL CHANGES TEND TO FAVOR COMMUNISTS AND HOBBLE PRO-AMERICANS . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 11 While the current extensive reshuffling of key French government personnel appears to be primarily an effort by the Mendes-France regime to entrench itself, it has resulted in the transfer of many pro- American officials to relatively unimportant posts. There is also evidence that the government has fol- lowed a soft policy toward Communists. Current disclosures of Communist infiltration, however, will probably force Mendes-France to come to grips with the problem of Communist influence in the government. EGYPT FACES CRITICAL TEST OF ITS INFLUENCE IN THE SUDAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 13 A decline in Egypt's prestige and serious dis- sension within the governing National Unionist Party in the Sudan confront the Nasr regime with a critical test of its influence during the transitional period before the Sudanese vote on whether to join Egypt or become independent. COMMUNIST CHINA'S NEW GOVERNMENT . . . . . . . . . . Page 14 The choice of the men who will fill the princi- pal positions in the new Chinese Communist government discloses significant changes in the relative stand- ing of the Chinese leaders, although the top four officials are not affected, Among those whose fortunes have risen are Peng Teh-huai, new minister of national defense; Teng Hsaio-ping, new Politburo member; and Li Fu-chun, new chairman of the State Planning Com- mission. Those who have apparently fallen from favor include Kao Kang, Li Li-san, Ja.o Shu-shih, and An Tzu-wen. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 3 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For please 2004IO, / t;, lP-RDP79-00927A&0300240001-4 THE SOVIET WORLD The Soviet Union's initial comment on the London agree- ments described them as an "attempt to bring back EDC under another name," criticized British and French leaders for ig- noring the wishes of their people on the German rearmament question, and depreciated the "sensational concessions by Britain" committing troops and a tactical air force to the Continent. For the benefit of German listeners, Moscow in- sisted that the London agreements are incompatible with German reunification. As the Western Allies worked out their London agreement on West German rearmament, the USSR rapidly developed its campaign to frustrate Western community defense plans. Mos- cow's immediate aim seems to be to generate French public and parliamentary pressure to defer ratification of the Lon- don agreement pending further four-power talks. The Soviet leaders so far have chosen to offer as bait ostensible modifi- cations of their earlier terms for world disarmament and an Austrian treaty. Vyshinsky's UN disarmament proposal on 30 September was intended to appear as a substantial concession, with France as the principal target, Molotov gave a copy to the French ambassador the day before Vyshinsky's speech, and remarked that "account must be taken of the German problem," Moscow?s motivation in introducing the apparent con- cessions in its disarmament plan was also revealed by the French Communist press treatment of the subject. Communist dailies in Paris developed the theme that it is no longer essential to remilitarize Germany since with the Soviet dis- armament concessions general disarmament will now be possible. The Soviet press carried extensive reports on the French re- action to Vyshinsky's proposal and attempted to create the impression that the French non-Communist press believed the proposal to be a step forward, caking the rearming of West Germany unnecessary. Moscow is keeping any new proposals on Germany in re- serve, although past propaganda hints have suggested that specious concessions on the principle of free all-German elections may be forthcoming. The routine character of Mos- cow's initial comment on the London conference suggests that the Soviet leaders are still studying the situation created 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 4 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fc elease 2004/~fL24RET-RDP79-0092 -C000300240001-4 by the London agreements and may withhold any major counter- initiative until the moment of greatest impact on the French assembly's debate on ratification. Moscow apparently is counting on strong opposition in the assembly to forestall early implementation-of the London decisions. The Soviet press hinted at assembly rejection by quoting a French Communist paper to the effect that "it is one thing to draw up plans, but another thing to bring them to realization and to obtain the approval of public opinion." During the London conference, the Paris Communist daily L'Humanitd hopefully predicted that "popular action" would render any decisions of principle reached at London a "dead,: letter, as the EDC is a dead better." Meanwhile, Moscow is strongly hinting through propaganda and its officials in Austria that it is ready to accept treaty limitations on the size and locations of its forces to remain there after the conclusion of a treaty. This small concession is well calculated to encourage the eagerness of Austrian lead- ers for a resumption of treaty discussions. The most recent Soviet propaganda on this new line flatly states, for the first time, that Austrian participation in the USSR's proposed Euro- pean security pact would result in the withdrawal of all Soviet occupation forces. Soviet efforts to normalize relations with Yugoslavia moved one small step forward with the conclusion of trade talks on 1 October 0 Representatives of Soviet foreign trade organizations and the Yugoslav Chamber of Foreign Trade signed in Belgrade an "arrangement" providing for about $2,500,000 in trade each way. Twelve commodities are to be exchanged, the bulk of them by the end of this year.. A Yugoslav government official subsequently disclosed to the American embassy that the USSR had proposed further trade talks on a government rather than a state enterprise level. He said that the USSR indicated during the recently concluded trade talks a desire to develop extensive trade with the Yugo- slavs. It is doubtful, however, that such trade would include any significant quantities of wheat, which Yugoslavia needs. Increased domestic and Satellite demands are likely to preclude the export of Soviet wheat in substantial quantities. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 5 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fo;9elease 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-0092?Q 00300240001-4 SECRET VIET MINH ARMY UNDERGOING EXTENSIVE REORGANIZATION AND INCREASING ITS FIRE POWER The Viet Minh army is undergoing an extensive reorganization made possible by continuing illegal arms shipments from Communist China. Following the Geneva truce agreement of 22 July, the Commu- nists embarked on an accelerated program of reorganization and training designed to develop a more modern army, one of greater fire power and capable of large-scale operations The reorganization is being accomplished largely through a reclassification of personnel already under arms. Militia forces are being converted to regional and regular.status, new battalions are being formed from regional companies, and inde- pendent battalions and regiments are regrouping to form new divisions. Although there has as yet been no significant numerical increase, some increment of the over-all strength is to be expected with the incorporation into the armed forces of Viet Minh war prisoners freed by the French and some Vietnamese army deserters and prisoners still held in northern. Vietnam. Without the continued flow of arms shipments from Communist China--in direct violation of the Geneva agreement, which pro- hibits the introduction of additional war materiel except on a replacement basis--a reorganization of this scope would not be .possible.. Since the cease-fire, this aid has resulted in a 50-percent increase in Viet Minh artillery weapons and has included enough mortars and recoilless rifles to equip five infantry Gdivis,ions Ammunition, shipments have also been, heavy. The'American army attache in Saigon has pointed to the possibility that the Viet Minh hopes, through a significant strengthening of its armed forces' capabilities, to influence the vote in'the.elections scheduled for July 1956 in all of Vietnam. However, if the elections are canceled, or if the Communists lose them, the Viet Minh would still be in a f avorable,,position for a rapid military conquest of the entire country. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 6 SECRET 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For4jelease 2004/09/2 ,I,P RDP79-009274Y900300240001-4 NEHRU'S FORTHCOMING VISIT TO PEIPING Indian prime minister Nehru's visit to Communist China in mid-October is unlikely to result in any formal agreement other than a joint communique reiterating the desire of the two coun- 25X1 tries to live peacefully side by side. The publicity given by Nehru and Chou to the five princi- ples of nonintervention and coexistence in the preamble of the Sino-Indian treaty on Tibet strongly suggests that Nehru con- siders this an adequate declaration of the peaceful intentions of both countries. His coolness toward another Colombo powers meeting and a conference of African and Asian powers supports the belief that he feels the principles have been; sufficiently dis- cussed. His apparent difficulty in evolving satisfactory work- ing details for carrying out the principles is possibly one of the strongest factors militating against the idea that a new pact may come out of Peiping. An opening of diplomatic rela- tions between China and Nepal., which may be announced after Nehru's return, could not be considered a result of the visit since India reportedly has already expressed itself in favor. In addition, Nehru may feel that another bilateral or multilateral nonaggression or Locarno-type treaty with China could be interpreted as a leftward shift in India's orienta- tion--an interpretation'he would take pains to avoid. India now has no political commitments to Western nations other than those in the Commonwealth, and a pact with China would unbal- ance this situation. Nehru's sensitiveness on the question of neutrality was illustrated as recently as late September by his unwillingness to have China invited to the conference of African and Asian nations proposed by Indonesia Nehru's uneasiness over China's real intentions in Asia is illustrated by the fact that in June both he and the Bur- mese prime minister indicated to Chou their fears of Chinese aggression. 4;hou is said to have reassured them. In addi- tion, Chou supposedly promised to look into the question of dual nationality of Chinese residents in Burma and Indonesia. 8 Oct 54 , CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 7 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For"'Re1ease 2 0 0 4 / 0 -4 China has not acted as yet, however, and Chinese activi- ties and propaganda aimed at Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thai- land have not been calculated to eliminate fear. In early Sep- tember, Nehru expressed perturbation over the Chinese Communist shelling of Quemoy Island. Nehru is unlikely to enter into an agreement with China until he can satisfy himself as to China's intentions, especially if he is beginning to fear China's mili- tary might, since this. might preclude his later seeking assist- ance from the West. While Nehru publicly deplores the Manila pact, there is no sign he willLmake it a major issue either domestically or internationally or that he'will seek a treaty with China to counteract it. Indonesian piemier Ali Sastroamidjojo's fail- ure when he was in New Delhi from 22 to 25 September to gene- rate enthusiasm for a Locarno-type pact or even for a confer- ence of Colombo or Afro-Asian powers is indicative of Nehru's unwillingness to be pushed at this time. Nehru, probably better than All, recognizes the lack of support in Asia for a new nonaggression treaty. Pakistan is already committed to the Manila agreement. The Ceylonese gov- ernment is sympathetic toward it. Even in Indonesia, there are strong objections to a nonaggression pact. The prospect for any firm agreement evolving from Nehru's visit to Peiping there= fore appears to be dim. 8 Oct 54 , CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 8 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved ForZelease 2001 d,ET-RDP79-0092WO0300240001-4 CURRENT SOVIET ATTENTION TO CHINA The Soviet Union utilized the fifth anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Republic to make its most lavish demonstration to date of friendship and regard for China. The Soviet delegation to Peiping, headed by Khrushchev, and including his fellow Presidium members Bulganin and Mikoyan, the editor of Pravda and the minister of culture, was the high- est level delegation to leave the USSR since Malenkov and Zhdanov went to the opening of the Cominform in 1947. This is the first time Soviet leaders of such stature have made a public visit to China. In Moscow the remaining six Presidium members, including Malenkov and Molotov, attended the Chinese ambassador's reception. This unprecedented attention climaxes a growing Soviet acknowledgment over the past 18 months of the role of China in the Communist world. With the end of the Korean war, Moscow stepped up its promotion Of China's stature as a world power whose recognition is essential for world peace and used the Geneva conference to reinforce this thesis. Since the death" of Stalin, Moscow has also begun to recognize Mao as a Marxist theoretician, and this year accorded him the un- usual honor of including him in the official philosophical dictionary, the only living Communist leader-so listed. This trend has been accompanied by Soviet economic aid to China which, although it has included key industrial and military equipment, has been modest in scale. There has been little emphasis by the USSR of its military commitment to Peiping under the Sino-Soviet treaty. Moscow has stressed instead, particularly since the Korean settlement, that China is the "stabilizing factor" for peace in the Far East. Peiping has always been far more eager to make explicit the joint obligations of the Sino-Soviet treaty than has Moscow, China's recent moves against Formosa and the offshore islands have evoked little official response from the USSR. Soviet media have been cautious in reporting Chinese claims, initiating little independent comment and relying largely on quoting Chinese statements. Any mention of Soviet commit- ment under the Sino-Soviet treaty has been scrupulously avoided. This general Sovi,et;pattern was followed by Khrushchev in his address~,n? Peiping on 2 October. The Soviet party leader paid great tribute to China's accomplishments in 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 9 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For,gelease 2004/05bcRrDP79-0092154000300240001-4 preparing for Socialism, reaffirmed the inviolability of Sino- Soviet friendship,and'reiterated the current Soveit stress on peaceful coexistence. He commended Chou--En-lei's call for con- sultations among Asian powers based on his five principles of nonaggression. Although Khrushchev gave the first general pledge of support by a top-ranking Soviet leader to Peiping's desire to "liberate" Formosa, he avoided the question of the kind, degree and timing of Soviet support. He made no mention of the Sino-Soviet treaty in connection with Formosa. Ambassador Bohlen,in commenting on these points, noted that the Khrushchev speech seemed to put the USSR behind the Chinese position on Formosa, but that he found it difficult to believe Moscow was prepared to run a serious risk of in- volvement in a major war on this issue. He further reported that in Moscow,Malenkov, Molotov, and Voroshilov rather point- edly ignored any reference to the liberation of Formosa in their replies to the Chinese ambassador's toast to China's determination to achieve this goal. Bohlen found further evidence of the USSR's desire to soft-pedal the degree of its commitment to the Formosa cam- paign in an unusual procedure employed by the Soviet censor in dealing with the Moscow AP correspondent's story on the Khrushchev speech. The censor pointed out that the journalist had incorrectly quoted Khrushchev as stating that the "Soviet Union supported China's determination'.' on the Formosa issue, whereas Khrushchev had merely said that the "Soviet people" supported this. In his speech, Khrushchev failed to repeat the long- standing Soviet,boast of:'having played the major role in defeating Japan in World War II. He acknowledged for the first time that the Soviet army came "to aid" the Chinese people after the USSR had defeated Hitler. He also went beyond any previous Soviet spokesman by explicitly crediting the Chinese Communist Party'with having evolved the "brilliant strategy and tactics" of the Chinese revolution. He stated that the "Chinese people are advancing along the correct road of their own." Prior to Stalin's death, Soviet theore- ticians had shown great reluctance to acknowledge the success of Mao's early tactics, which were at times in direct contrast to those proclaimed by the Comintern under Stalin. Khrushchev spoke of future Soviet economic aid mainly in the form of assistance to the 141 projects announced in 1953 as the Soviet contribution to China's first Five-Year Plan. But the Chinese were assured "that the Soviet people will continue to be their trustworthy, true friends9! and will support future Chinese development. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 10 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved ForL (ease 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927 00300240001-4 SECRET FRENCH PERSONNEL CHANGES TEND TO FAVOR COMMUNISTS AND HOBBLE PRO-AMERICANS While the current. extensive reshuffling of key French government personnel appears to be primarily an effort by the Mendes-France regime to entrench itself, it has resulted in the transfer of many pro-American officials to relatively unimportant posts. There is also evidence that the government has followed a "soft policy" toward Communists. The replace- ment of pro-American officials apparently springs from a desire for "more independent" policies; current disclo- sures of Communist infiltration, however, will probably force Mendes-France to come to grips with the problem of Communist influence in the government. Personnel shifts in the Foreign Ministry have already removed from several key spots officials who were close to former foreign minister Bidault. While numerous transfers could be expected during what amounts to the first drastic administrative shake-up under the Fourth Republic, even the French press is speculating that the premier is deliberately shifting pro-American officials to relatively remote or in- active spots. Among the most important changes has been the replace- ment of outspokenly pro-EDC Herve Alphand, permanent delegate to NATO, by Maurice Couve de Murville, former ambassador to Egypt, who in the past has not hesitated to undercut Bidault's pro-American policies. Pro-American Guy de la Tournelle, since 1950 director of political affairs and third-ranking official in the Foreign Ministry, has been appointed ambas- sador to Spain. Pierre de Leusse, who resigned last year. as head of the Foreign Ministry's press section in protest against Bidault's pro-EDC policy, has just been appointed ambassador to Warsaw. The significance of this move may become clear if Pierre Charpentier, who is scheduled for a post abroad when his present office is set up as a new Ministry of Foreign Trade, is also assigned to an Orbit country, Charpentier is known to favor expanded East-West trade, has worked for a reduction in strategic trade controls, and claims to have Mendes-France's support for continued trade with north Vietnam. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 11 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fo) .lease 2004/ L24-- C1A:RDP79-0092'PM00300240001-4 SEET Considerable concern has been expressed in the press and among the opposition over the government's move to tighten control over channels of information. The recent appointment of a new direotor of the semiofficial Agence France Presse has been explained publicly by a government spokesman as a move to give the agency "a greater independence in its in- formationo" The new director is a close associate of Interior Minister Mitterrand, who has been regarded as lenient toward Communists. The appointment of a new director of the nation- alized radio is also planned. Mendes-France has already shown his willingness to manipulate the press. Just prior to the assembly vote on EDC, the government ordered AFP to withhold news of Britain's clarification of its stand on the defense community. Even in the early weeks of the Mendes-France regime, when the premier was occupied at Geneva, there were indica- tions the new government would follow a 14soft policy" toward. Communists. The reappointment of an avowed Communist to the National Center of Scientific Research in early July was noted by the American embassy in Paris as reversing the trend of previous governments toward removing Communists from sensitive positions. Most recently, political adversaries of the premier have seized on the dismissal of police inspector Jean Dides, head of an anti-Communist section, as another indication of Mendes-France's bad faith and pro-Communist leanings. The subsequent revelation of information leaks by key defense officials to Communists has, however, removed the finger of suspicion from Mendes-France in this matter, although the extent of Mitterrand's involvement is still not clear. The leaks of secret defense information, described in the press as "France's biggest postwar scandal," have already led to the questioning of top Communist leaders. An aroused public opinion will. probably compel Mendes-France to give attention to the problem of his own relationship with the Communist Party. This may result in friction between the premier and some of his closest advisers. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 12 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fo elease 2004/NtRwt RDP79-0092%MO0300240001-4 EGYPT FACES CRITICAL TEST OF ITS INFLUENCE IN THE SUDAN Egyptian prestige in the Sudan has been impaired by re- cent developments in Cairo and by serious dissensions within the governing National Unionist Party in the Sudan. Popular support for the pro-Egyptian Unionist Party is threatened by growing coolness toward the Nasr regime among leaders of the important Moslem Khatmia sect. As the majority of the Union- ist Party deputies belong to this sect, Prime Minister Azhari's prounionist policies may face new difficulties when the Suda- nese parliament reconvenes in November. Differences between Nagib and Nasr, further dissension within the Revolutionary Command Council, and the Cairo re- gime's policy toward the Moslem Brotherhood have lessened Su- danese desire for political union with Egypt. Many of the Khatmia initially supported the Egyptian-dominated Unionist Party solely as a means of ending British administration of the country. This element now resents Egypt's efforts to ex- tend its influence and to manipulate Sudanese politics. The Unionist Party won its victory in the November 1953 elections for the first Sudanese self-governing parliament, thanks largely to the popular support of the Khatmia. Prime Minister Azhari has accordingly sought to maintain a balance inthe cabinet between Khatmia and prounionist politicians. All Mirghani, head of the Khatmia, is considered the most influential figure on the Sudanese political scene. The grow- ing friction between Mirghani and the Nasr regime constitutes a serious threat to Azhari's prounionist government. It also lessens the prospect that the Sudanese will choose political union with Egypt rather than independence when they vote on their future status at some date before January 1957. Major Salah Salim's sudden and unexpected visit to Khar- toum on 30 September to confer with Unionist Party officials suggests that the Nasr regime is concerned over the split with- in the party and Egypt's declining influence among tae Khatmia. If Major Salim is unable to effect a reconciliation between the two factions, Egypt may expect a further loss of influence in the Sudan and increasing opposition to union of the two coun- tries. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 13 SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Fotelease 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00921 000300240001-4 SECRET COMMUNIST CHINA'S NEW GOVERNMENT The choice of the men who will fill the principal positions in the new Chinese Communist government discloses significant changes in the relative standing of Chinese leaders, although the top four officials are not affected (see chart, p. 16). The election conducted in the Chinese National People's Congress in September supports indications of the past several years that the big four, in order, are Mao Tse-tung, Liu Shao-chi, Chou En-lai and Chu Teh. Mao, who is to be chairman of the Republic for four more years, will almost certainly remain in over-all control, although his activity may be reduced by ill-health. Liu, as chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, will be in a position to exercise power second only to Mao's and, appar- ently, to assume primary authority on Mao's death or incapacita- tion. Chou En-lai will continue as premier and foreign minister in the number three job. Chu Teh, as the only vice chairman of the Republic, will be the formal successor to Mao's office, although not to his authority. Administration of government affairs is in the hands of the State Council, consisting of 35 ministers and commission chair- men and presided over by Chou En-lai. In nearly all cases, ministers who were replaced were named vice chairmen or members of the Standing `Committee . of,. 1tus. tcong'es ",;:,where they will be under the supervision of Liu Shao-chi and will not have a direct hand in the daily administration of the government. Peng Teh-huai, until recently commander of Chinese Communist forces in Korea, has apparently assumed direct control of the armed forces in place of former commander in chief Chu Teh. Peng was named as the new minister.. of national defense, a position he is expected to fill aggressively and well. Both Peng and Chu are among the15,vice chairmen of the new National Defense Council, as are all field army commanders. Since there is no direct command channel: between this body and the new Ministry of National Defense, the council will probably function largely as an advisory body to Peng and to Mao Tse- tung, who heads the council. The rapid rise of Teng Hsiao-ping in recent years was confirmed during the congress, as Peiping identified him for the first time as a member of the Chinese Communist Party 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 14 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved Forelease 2004/0994.'R RDP79-009200300240001-4 politburo. Teng retained his position as a vice premier and was also appointed a vice chairman of the National Defense Council. A similar rise in the stature of J.i Fu-chun was confirmed by the congress, which named him to replace Kao Kang as chairman} of the important State Planning Commission, one of the two-or three top jobs in the Chinese Communist economy. Li, who may like Teng be a new member of the politburo, was formerly second in importance to Kao Kang in Manchuria. The congress appeared to confirm the fall from favor of Kao Kang, long the party's boss in Manchuria and until this year one of Communist China's big five. Kao, who has been out of the news since January of this year, was not mentioned in any way during the congress session and has apparently been disciplined sharply for challenging the party leadership. Li Li-san, onetime leader of the Chinese Communist Party and rival of Mao Tse-tung, was also dealt a blow by the con- gress, in that he was not retained as minister of labor or named to any other post. Li had been made the scapegoat in 1931 for the failure of the Comintern line in China in previous years., and was ordered to Moscow for, reindoctrination. He returned to China in 1945, reportedly as a Kremlin-supported check on Mao, and was re-elected at that time to the party's central committee, but he never regained anything approaching his former power. Two other major figures seem to be in trouble, judging from the proceedings of the congress. Jao Shu-shih, who had been director of the party's highly important organization department and the regime's top official in East China, was completely ignored by the congress. An Tzu-wen, a theorist who had been Jao's deputy in the organization department, lost his job as minister of personnel for the government when that post was eliminated by the congress, and he was not given any other job. 8 Oct 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY Page 15 SECRET Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4 imp GOVERNMENT OF COMMUNIST CHINA Mao Tse-tung, Chairman of the People's Republic of China Chu Teh, Vice Chairman of the Republic STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL DEFENSE COUNCIL NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS STATE COUNCIL Chairman Chairman Premier Mao Tse-tung Liu Shao-chi Chou En-lai Vice Chairmen Vice Chairmen Vice Premiers Chu Teh. Hsu Hsiang-chien Peng Teh-huai Nieh Jung-chen Lin Piao Yeh Chien-ying Liu Po-cheng Cheng Chien Ho Lung Chang Chih-chung .Chen Yu -Fu Tso-yi Teng Hsiao-ping Lung Yun Lo Jung-huan 81 Members Soong Ching-ling Huang Yen-pei Lin Po-chu Peng Chen Li Chi-shen Li Wei-han Chang Lan Chen Shu-tung Lo Jung-huan Dalai Lama Shen Chun-ju Saifudin. Kuo Mo-jo 65 Members Minister of Internal Affairs: Hsieh Chueh-tsai Minister of Foreign Affairs: Chou En-lai Minister of Defense: Peng Teh-huai Minister of Public Security: Lo Jui-chung Minister of Justice: Shih Luang Minister of Supervision; Chien Yung State Planning Commission; Li Fu-chun National Constr. Commission: Po I=po Minister of Finance: Li Hsien-nien Minister of Food: Chang Nai-chi Minister of Commerce: Tseng Shan Minister of Foreign Trade: Yeh Chi-chuang Minister of Heavy Industry: Wang Ho-shou 1st Mine of Machine Building: Huang Ching 2nd Min. of Machine Building: Chao Erh-lu Minister of Fuel Industries: Chen Yu Minister of Geology: Li Ssu-kuang Minister of Building: Liu Hsiu-feng Chen Yon Ho Lung Lin Piao Chen Yi Peng Teh-huai Ulanfu Teng Esiao-ping Li Fu-chun Teng Tzu-hui Li Hsien-nien Minister of the Textile Industry: Minister of Light Industry: Minister of Local Industry: Minister of Railways: Minister of Communications: Min. of Posts & Telecommunications: Minister of Agriculture: Minister of Forestry: Minister of Water Conservancy: Minister of Labor: Minister of Culture: Minister of Higher Education: Minister of Education: Minister of Public Health: Physical Culture and Sports Comm.: Nationalities Affairs Comm.; Overseas Chinese Affairs Comm.: Secretary General of State Council: Chiang Kuang-nai y Chia To-fu Sha Chien-li Teng Tai-yuan Chang Po-chun Chu Hsieh-fan Liao Lu-yen Liang Hsi Fu Tso-yi Ma Wen-jui Shen Yen-ping Yang Hsiu-feng Chang Hsi-jo Li Teh-chuan Ho Lung Ulanfu Ho Hsiang-nung Hsi Chung-hsun People's Supreme Court President: Tung Pi-wu Procurator General: Chang Ting-cheng Approved For Release 2004/06/24: CIA-RDP79-00927A000300240001-4