CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0
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S
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December 16, 2016
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January 13, 2005
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1
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Publication Date: 
December 22, 1955
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SUMMARY
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Approver Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79- 27A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY COPY N O. & OCI NO.9430/55 22 December 1955 DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ['] F-3 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH? H DATE, REVIEWER:4 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE State Department review completed 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 Approved For R Ge 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-00927AG '00060001-0 THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. The Current Intelligence Weekly Summary has been prepared primarily for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does not represent a complete coverage of all current situations. Comments and conclusions represent the immediate appraisal of the Office of Current Intelligence. Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 ApprovedKiar Release 20044 :CTA-RDP79-07A000700060001-0 T H E W E E K .I N B R I E F INDONESIAN CRISIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1 President Sukarno is apparently determined to bring about the fall of Prime Minister Haraha.p's Masjumi cabinet. He is giving strong support to Air Force Chief of Staff Suryadarma, who engineered a show of arms by air force per- sonnel on 14 December to prevent the installation of a new 11arahap appointee as deputy chief of staff. Harahap's position may have been further weakened by the 15 December constituent assembly elections; early returns show the Masjumi party running poorly. F_ I FR ail..F ELECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page In the campaign for the 2 January French election, no group appears thus far to be showing significant gains in support. The numerous candidates and alliances for the 2 January election and the similarity of the programs cloud the issues. State aid to church schools is the only clear is- sue separating the two non-Communist blocs. CYPRUS w . . . . . ? ? . Page 3 Terrorism continues on Cyprus as Greece seeks a more explicit promise of self-determination than that of ~Br.it- ain''S latest formula for a provisional settlement. Twelve British soldiers have been, killed recently and three Americans were injured on 18 December by a bomb tossed into a Nicosia apartment house dining room. ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION . . ? . ? . . . . Page 3 The Syrian-Israeli frontier remains tense. There have been.minor incidents on the Egyptian-Israeli border. UN truce chief General Burns appears to have made little progress in bringing Israel and Egypt to any agreement on truce proposals for the border regions of Gaza and El Auja. The Israeli "package" compromise publicized on 19 December as 25X1 25X1 25X1 an inducement for Egypt and the other Arab states tiate peace settlements with Israel contained no to new nego- elements and is certain to be rejected by the Arabs. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved- Release 20059ffJA-RDP79-OQ A000700060001-0 22 December 1955 JORDAN AND THE BAGHDAD PACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4 The resignation of Jordan's Majali cabinet on 20 December is a setback for the British drive to engineer Jordan's ad- herence to the Baghda-..tct . The caretaker government of "elder statesman" Hashim, head of the Senate, has promised to take no action on the pact pending the outcome of the parlia- mentary elections to be held within four months. 25X1 POSTPONEMENT OF SUPREME SOVIET SESSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . Page 4 The postponement of the USSR Supreme Soviet session from 23 December to 26 December may indicate that a plenum of the party central committee is convening during the intervening period. The calling of the central committee into session at this time could mean that there are disagreements within. the party presidium over foreign and domestic policies. The So- viet budget for 1946 and the Khrushchev-Bulganin trip to South Asia are possible subjects of controversy. 25X1 PARAGUAY . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5 The military rebellion which broke out in Paraguay on 21 December was precipitated by President Stroessner's order for the arrest of Epifanic Mendez Fleitas,.Central Bank president and a controversial leader of the ruling Colorado Party. In back of the outbreak is a, conflict among the various Colorado factions and continuing efforts of the party's civilian leaders to challenge the military's traditional dominance of the govern- NOTES AND COMMENTS Berlin Situation: Communist pressure against West Berlin con inues7Uut the legal steps necessary to incorporate the Soviet sector of the city into the German Democratic Republic have not been taken. Such action would termi- nate the four-power status of the city. East Germany, despite the aggressive statements of several of its leaders, still appears intent on maintaining its posi- tion in Berlin without openly challenging the Western powers there. E__ I . . . . . . . . . . . Page 25X1 SECRET ii Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN. BRIEF SECRET Approvor Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79=27A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 Khrushchev-Buiganin Tour: Three documents issued. at the conclusion of the Soviet leaders' visit to Afghanistan provide for further extending political, economic and cultural ties between Afghanistan and the USSR. Moscow probably hopes the visit, and the promises of additional aid, will cause the Afghans to stand up more boldly against Pakistan and the West. As a result of the visit Prime Minister Daud's domestic to have been further strengthened. Page 3 Effects of UN Membership Increase: The admission of 16 new members into the on 14 ecember has, by promoting the principle of universal membership, probably improved Peiping's prospects for admission. While the increase in Soviet bloc votes is minor, the Arab-Asian bloc may now be able to muster a two-thirds vote on colonial issues. . . . . . . . . ... . . . Page 4 The Soviet Shift on UN Membership: By its sudden shift on the UN membership question, the USSR laid the founda- tion for its tactics in next year's debate on Chinese UN representation. Moscow seeks to confront the United States with a choice between acquiescing in the seating of the Chinese Communists or continuing to support the Nationalists at the cost of Japan's exclusion. . t:.:::~-?: . . . Page 5 Japanese Reaction to Veto on UN Membership: The Japanese feel that the membership rebuff, along with other recent setbacks to their diplomacy, emphasizes their nation's weakness in international affairs and its over- dependence on the United States. This will strengthen the position of those within and outside the government who favor increasingly independent action to strengthen Japan's international position. The fact that Japan's accession to the UN depends on Soviet support also will increase pressures for concessions when the London treaty negotiations with the USSR are resumed in January. I. . . . . . . ., . . . . . . . . . Page 6 Buraimi: Since rejecting the Saudi Arabian proposals for renewed arbitration of the Buraimi dispute, the British have further alienated the Saudis by instigating a mil- itary campaign against a Saudi ally, the imam of Inner Oman. By taking this firm stand,Britain is attempt- ing to stop Saudi border encroachments into territory claimed by the British-controlled Persian Gulf rulers, and thereby maintain Britain's political and economic privileges in this area. I . . . . Page 7 SECRET iii Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF 25X1 25X1 ? Approve F,or Release 209qT1Q : CIA-RDP79- 27A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 Saar Election Outcome: The three pro-German parties won absolute control of the. Saar Landtag in the 18 December elections but fell short of the 75-percent majority needed to revise the constitution. Prospects are for a period of continuing agitation by the ambitious pro- 8 German extremist'leader'Schneider. . Page 25X1 New Soviet Five-Year Plana The draft of the Soviet Union's Sixth Five-Year an (1956-1960) will probably be made public a few weeks before it is presented to the 20th Party Congress next February. The next plan evidently will be an ambitious program for rapid growth of the USSR's maturing economy, and will be presented as a significant step from state socialism toward Communism. Basic to the fulfillment of the plan will be the success of the industrial modernization effort in'raising labor productivity and the achievement of the agricultural and 25X1 livestock goals. . . . . . . . . . . Page 9 Bulganin Defends the Cominform: Marshal Bulganin's defense of the Cominform in a press conference in New Delhi on 14 December indicates that the USSR is prepared to accept the diplomatic embarrassment which the existence of the Cominform entails to preserve it as a weapon in the "peaceful open competition of capitalist and socialist systems" advocated by Moscow. 25X1 I I ? ? ? ? . . . . . 4 . . ? . . Page 10 Soviet Objectives in the Antarctic: Participation in the International eophys ca ear (1957-58) provides the USSR with an opportunity to become entrenched in the. Antarctic, The scientific gains accruing to the USSR from a program of continuous work in the Antarctic would secure it a leading position in polar geophysics, polar flying, guided-missile development and polar land, sea and submarine operations. . Page 11 25X1 Soviet Party Membership Increased Significantly: The addi- tion o a million new members to the Soviet Com- munist Party since May 1953 indicates a reversal of the postwar policy of restricting party membership. This expansion, which brings the membership to 8,000,- 000, appears to reflect the views of Party First Secretary Khrushchev. It is in line with the campaign he initiated in the fall of 1953 to bolster party cadres in agriculture. . . ? ? . Page 1225X1 SECRET iv Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF Approved ,q r Release 200c: g CTA-RDP79- 7A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 Soviet Military Promotions Since Stalin's Death: The re- cent promotion o our aovie army genera is brings to 41 the number of known promotions to three-star rank and above in the Soviet military since Stalin's death. The contrast between this number in two and a half years and the 12 such promotions in the eight-year postwar period under Stalin is indicative of the greater recognition now accorded military leaders, particularly operational commanders. ? ? ? ? Page 25X1 Laos: The Laotian election campaign, now in its final stages, has been generally calm. Present political leaders are expected to return after the 25 December voting with a working majority in the assembly and roughly the same balance of power in the cabinet. The Patbet Lao has confined its activities to propa- ganda urging abstention from the polls; only one Pathet sympathizer is regarded as having a chance of election. 1 1 . . . . . . . . Page 14 Malaya: Preliminary arrangements have been completed for a meeting during the last week of December between Malayan: chief minister Abdul Rahman and Secretary Gen- eral Chin Peng of the Malayan Communist Party. Rahman has reiterated that when he meets the Communist leader, he will do no, more than explain the government's 8 September amnesty and listen to Communist suggestions regarding the government's offer. . Page 15 25X1 Sudanese Independence: The Sudanese parliament's ""declara- on:1 o independence on 20 December has been accepted by Britain and Egypt. Uncertainty remains whether the move will make unnecessary the convening of the interna- tional commission which was to supervise the process of .Sudanese self-determination. . . Page 15 25X1 Constitutional Crisis in Gold Coast: The Gold Coast, Brit- ain's West African colony w eb is to attain commonwealth status by early 1957, is faced with internal dissension over its future constitutional structure and the role of tribal authorities. . . . Page 16 25X1 Greece: Political maneuvering is intensifying in Greece in anticipation of a royal proclamation dissolving parlia- ment and a call for national.elections. Elections, which would be required within 45 days,may be held as early as February. Prime Minister Karama.nlis faces a hard pout ical fight. . . . . . . . . . . Page 17 SECRET v Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 CIA-RDP79-00$27A000700060001-0 'CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Disaffection Growing in Argentina: New large-scale arrests and a report on the existence of a new "revolutionary movement".in Argentina suggest that the Aramburu govern- ment's forceful program to crush all sources of Peron's former strength may be alienating part of its support from the military who served under Peron. Though Presi- dent Aramburu still seems to have control, the arrests tend to belie the communiques about unity within the regime which appears to be increasingly strained by interservice rivalries. . . . . Page 17 25X1 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES 25X1 25X1 THE RIGHT-CENTER COALITION IN THE FRENCH ELECTION . . Page In the three-cornered French election battle between the present government coalition, Mendes-France's Republican Front and the Communists, the conservative Independent-Peasant bloc which forms the right wing of Faure's coalition will probably gain the greatest number of seats. This group, basically con- servative, has shown considerable flexibility, particularly in. recent months on wage issues as well as in foreign affairs. TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES,IN BERLIN . . . . . . Page East German harassment again poses a threat to the vul- nerable road, rail and water communications lines on which West Berlin depends for its communications to the West. While the .Communists hope to. force recognition of the East German govern- ment by asserting control over these routes, West Berlin main- tains a six-to-nine-month stockpile of basic necessities, which in an emergency could be supplemented by airlift.. JAPAN DRIVES FOR COMMUNIST MARKETS 25X1 Page 9 The Ha,toyama government, moving cautiously, has put into effect a. number of policies during the past year to restore Japan's. trade with the nations of the Sino-Soviet bloc, es- pecially with Communist China. Exports to the bloc, however, still comprise only two percent of the total for all countries and imports little. more than three percent. By enlarging this trade, Japan hopesto achieve a self-sustaining economy, which it considers a prerequisite to a more independent role in Asia. SECRET vi . Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 THE WEEK IN BRIEF 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 Approved- Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00WA000700060001-0 SECRET President Sukarno is ap- parently determined to bring about the fall of Prime Min- ister Harahap's Masjumi-led cabinet. He is giving strong support to Air Force Chief of Staff Suryadarma, who engi- neered a show of arms by,air force personnel on 14 December to prevent the installation of a Harahap appointee as deputy chief of staff. Sukarno has never favored the present cabinet, which as- sumed office last July. It does not include the leftist National Party, which he pre- fers,. and it came into being as tr.e result of army pres- sure in defiance; )f his wishes. The lines are thus drawn in the current dispute as in ear- lier crises: the Masjumi, the army and Vice President Hatta on one side; Sukarno and the National Party, supported by the Communists, on the other. Prime Minister Harahap and Vice President Hatta maintain that Suryadarma's open insubor- dination cannot remain unpun- ished. Several parties in the cabinet, however, including the Nahdlatul Ulama, refuse to sanction punitive action be- cause Sukarno is publicly backing the air chief. Sukarno and his supporters undoubtedly hope that if the impasse is prolonged, the government will be compeiled to resign. Another disagreement has reportedly arisen between Sukarno and Prime Minister Har..Lap over the power to ap- point up to 18 representatives of racial minority groups to the new parliament which will be seated in April. The race between the Masjumi and the Na- tional Party in last fall's parliamentary election was so close that the racial minority seats may hold a balance of power. If a cabinet agreeable to Sukarno could be installed, the dispute over the right of appointment would become academic. Meanwhile, returns from the 15 December elections for a constituent assembly are tending further to weaken Harahap's position. These show the Na- tional Party, the Communists, and the Nahdlatul Ulama polling better and the Masjumi worse than at a comparable point in the counting of last September's vote. A continuation of this trend will undermine the support Harahap will receive from the small parties in his coalition when parliament convenes on 10 January. Already, at least three of them, including the Nahdlatul Ulama, have refused to support the government's de- cision to open the talks with the Dutch which began on 10 December. One of them broke openly with the cabinet and asked that the talks be suspended. The talks cover virtually the whole range of Dutch-Indo- nesian relations, but it was agreed beforehand. that each party would maintain its claim to sovereignty over west New Guinea, to which both maintain adamant claims. However, ap- parently with the hope of winning a foreign policy victory to help counter his domestic difficulties, Harahap asked the American em- bassy what the United States can do "with the Dutch or the Indo- nesians or both" to bring a solu- tion to the New Guinea issue. Approved For Release 2005/Q21'FURgx-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 1 of 5 25X1 Release 2005/O~Q,~F~JQ;2DP79-00274000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY In the campaign for the 2 January French election, no group so far appears to be show- ing significant gains in sup- port. It is estimated that 3,000 political meetings are being held daily, and most observers agree that the 2 January elec- tions are likely to arouse more popular interest than :many in the past. (Also.see Part III, p . l.. ) Depending on the weather, the massive registrations-- reportedly 1,200,000 higher than;, in 1951--could. result in a record-breaking vote. Accord- ing to a recent poll, 88 per- cent of those questioned in- tended to vote. The previous high was an 84-percent vote in 1936. The formal platforms of the two major non-Communist groups are similar. Both the Faure and Mendes-France blocs are asking for parliamentary reform to permit easier dis- solution of parliament, although Mendes-France goes further in that he is pressing for electoral reform as well. Both blocs are also trying to capture young voters with promises of short- ened military service. The only clear issue on which the blocs differ is the classic dispute between left and right on state aid for church schools. The Mendes- France vehicle, the Republican Front, which includes Radicals and Socialists opposed-to state aid, have made the Catholic Popular Republicans a major target. Mendes-France is at- tempting to create a foreign affairs issue by attacking Pinay for accepting the 19 De- cember NATO council statement on Soviet Middle East tactics. Much of the noise in the campaign so far has come from the Poujade antitax groups which are attacking both the Mendes- France and Faure blocs and at- tempting to break up their meetings by rowdyism. Pinay's Independent Party has reportedly canceled all meetings in one department because of Poujadist threats, and Mendes-France was shouted down at a week-end Re- publican Front rally. The large number of candi- dates and alliances continue to cloud the issues for the French voter. Numerous small parties that have no chance of. getting an. appreciable number of votes have entered into the campaign, particularly in the Paris area. A recent estimate gives the Pinay-Faure group 300 of the 596 seats at stake. (The election for 30 Algerian seats has been postponed.) The Min- istry of Interior had estimated earlier, however, that no group could get a really workable majority. The Communists are expected to gain 35-40 seats, because of the split within the center and right which would give them about 135 of the 596 in the assembly. Approved SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST Page 2 of 5 25X1 Approve Fc or Release 200510 DP79-00927A000700060001-0 ,w, . SE ET Terrorism continues on Cyprus. Twelve British soldiers have been killed recently and three Americans were injured on 18 December by a bomb tossed into a Nicosia apartment house dining room. Greece wants a more explicit guaraiitee of self-determination for Cyprus than that contained in Britain's latest formula for a provisional settlement. This, Britain seems willing to concede. Greece also desires a rephras- ing of the formula to exclude Turkey from a role in determining The Syrian-Israeli fron- tier remains tense. There have been minor incidents on the Egyptian-Israeli border. UN truce chief General Burns ap- pears to have made little prog- ress in bringing Israel and Egypt to any agreement on truce proposals for the border regions of Gaza and El Auja. The Is- raeli "package" compromise publicized on 19 December as an inducement for Egypt and the other Arab states to negotiate peace settlements with Israel contained no new elements, and is certain to be rejected by the Arabs. There is genuine fear in Israel that the country faces either annihilation by Egypt's growing military strength or a "Munich type" peace, according to the American embassy in Tel Aviv. The embassy believes the island's ultimate status, which London will probably re- fuse. Curtailment of normal ac- tivities on Cyprus as a result of public insecurity is causing economic distress and is strengthening the position of moderate Nationalists. Rumors that Archbishop Makarios may ask the terrorists for a Christ- mas truce suggest he may be preparing to exert his influ- ence against continued terror- ism and toward reopening nego- tiations with British governor Harding. public opinion would generally approve Israeli preventive mili- tary action against Egypt "be- fore it is too late." The em- bassy also reports that the government apparently decided in late October to adopt an arms procurement program in- stead of attacking Egyptian divisions in Sinai. However, if an arms program were to fail, preventive war waged against the Arab states might be linked with some controversial border issue in which Israel could avoid being blamed. The large-scale reprisal attack of 11-12 December against Syria suggests that Israel in- tends to show the Arab states and the world that it is still in a position to negotiate peace from a position of strength. SECRET Approved For Releaa~ 2g ?d19 l9 A1 9-9 927A00070006$001 3 of 5 25X1 25X1 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Approve Four Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79- ,927A000700060001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY JORDAN AND THE BAGHDAD PACT The cabinet of Jordanian prime minister Majali, who was appointed only a week ago for the purpose of linking Jordan to the Baghdad pact, resigned on 20 December in the face of widespread demonstrations against the pact. The care- taker government of "elder statesman" Hashim, head of the Senate, has promised to take no action on the pact pending the outcome of parlia- mentary elections to be held within four months. These developments are a serious setback to the British drive to engineer Jordan's ad- herence to the Baghdad pact. POSTPONEMENT OF SUPREME SOVIET SESSION The postponement of the USSR Supreme Soviet session from 23 to 26 December may in- dicate that a plenum of the party central committee is con- vening during the intervening period. The calling of the central committee into session at this time could mean that there are disagreements within the party presidium over foreign and domestic policies. The Soviet budget for 1956 and the Khrushchev-Bulganin trip to South Asia are possible sub- jects of controversy. It is also possible that disagreements have emerged within the party presidium that need to be reconciled before the Supreme Soviet convenes but which do not necessitate call- ing the central committee into session. Resolution of high- level controversies might result in important changes in the party hierarchy. Since Bulganin and Khru- shchev did not return to Mos- cow until late on 21 December, it is also possible that more time is required to prepare a full report on the foreign aid program for South Asia to which they have committed the USSR. 25X1 Postponement of a meeting of the Supreme Soviet has oc- curred at least twice since Stalin's death. In March 1953, a session was delayed to enable the central committee to accept Malenkov's resignation as party secretary. A meeting scheduled for 28 July 1953 was postponed to 5 August, presumably to allow Malenkov time to secure accept- ance fnr the "new course" eco- nomic policy which he presented at that session. 25X1 SECRET PART I Approved For Rele 2RW41e1; f I J JR0927A00070006~age 4 of 5 Approved For Release 2005//~~OR CI -RDP79 7A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 PARAGUAY The military rebellion which broke out in Paraguay on 21 December was. precipitated by President Stroessner's order for the arrest of Epifanio Mendez Fleitas, Central Bank president and a controversial leader of the ruling Colorado Party. In back of the outbreak is a conflict among the various Colorado factions and continu- ing efforts of the.party's civilian leaders to challenge the military's traditional domi- nance of the government. all members of the cabinet offered their resignations on 14 December to give Stroessner a free hand, and Stroessner, along with Romero, has since been holding conferences with military and civilian leaders. The meetings are probably related also to the Colorado Party's recent efforts to conciliate its dis- sident factions. Pressure for the removal of officials considered to be pro-Peron, such as Mendez, re- portedly is being exerted also by, the Argentine government as a prerequisite for the Argentine co-operation Paraguay urgently. needs--trade between the two countries having virtually ceased since the overthrow of Peron in September. As com- mander in chief of the armed forces, Stroessner has an ad- vantage in any military showdown with Mendez. The latter, however, has acquired considerable sup- port among younger army of ficers and the police. 25X1 25X1 25X1 SECRET PART I Approved For Rele e 2 /I1~ l j ffj j9 ff 927A000700060~age 5 of 5 Approved- or Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-089000700060001-0 *AW SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 NOTES AND COMMENTS Berlin Situation Communist pressure against West Berlin continues, but the legal steps necessary to in- corporate the Soviet sector of the city into the German Dem `ocratic Republic (GDR) hale not been taken. East Germany, despite the aggressive state- ments of several of its lead- ers, still appears intent on maintaining its position in Berlin without openly chal- lenging the Western powers there. (Also see Part III, p.4.) First Secretary Neumann of the Socialist Unity Party (SED) organization in Berlin, in an open threat of direct Communist action against the Western sec- tors, said on 17 December that "in West Berlin, it is now a question of liquidation of the occupation statute and setting aside the power of big business and militarists so that normal relations with the government of the GDR can be created." Neumann apparently views West Berlin as a part.of the GDR capital where East Germany is unable to enforce its laws. The East German Foreign Ministry in early December, however, was reported to be preparing a legal opinion which would define the Soviet sec- tor of Berlin as the capital and part of the GDR and which would imply that the Western sectors were West German ter- Neumann also attacked the proposed law now pending in the West Berlin Senate which would allegedly bring West Berlin under the laws of the Federal Republic. Continued propaganda charges by East Germany against this law may be used to justify the enactment of similar legis- lation by the GDR which would place East Berlin under East German law. At present, East German law is applicable in East Berlin only on re-enactment by the municipal legislature, indicating that Communist au- thorities recognize the existing legal situation despite their frequent claims that East Ber- lin is part of the Democratic Republic. The only recent Communist actions against movement be- tween East and West Berlin-- the closing of exits to West Berlin on two elevated stations on the intersector border on 17 December and the arrest of 20 East German passengers the next day--apparently were de- sighed to cut down on Christmas shopping by East Berliners in the Western sectors. Except for the recent con- fiscation by the East Germans of 12 trucks loaded with scrap metal, traffic between West Ger- many and Berlin continues to move normally. However, West German foreign minister Von Brentano, in his conversation with Secretary Dulles in Paris on 17 December, said he ex- pected the GDR to place in- creasing obstacles on traffic and transport to Berlin as part of its campaign to obtain rec- ognition.., West Germany, according to Von Brentano, can see no adequate means for countering such moves except through con- certed Western action. State SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 1 of ?18 Approve or Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-04927A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELISEME'A'EEKLY SUMMARY Secretary Hallstein of the Bonn Foreign Ministry believes stop- ping trade with East Germany would do more harm to the Fed- eral Republic than to the GDR. He said that the Federal Re- public was partially dependent on East Germany, particularly as regards brown coal, for which there is no other source of supply. Steel exports from West Germany to the GDR, in his opinion, were so small that an embargo on their shipment could not be used as a means of pressure. 25X1 25X1 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART 11 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page Approve For Release 200SEV IA-RDP79-Oq A000700060001-0 25X1 Khrushchev-Bulganin Tour Three documents issued at the conclusion of the Soviet leaders' visit in Afghanistan provide for a further extension of political, economic and cul- tural ties between that country and the USSR. While the Afghan tour was less spectacular than the visits to India and Burma, the Soviet leaders apparently were successful in giving the Afghans greater confidence in Afghanistan's ability to follow a "neutralist" course, inde- pendent of its neighbors who are members of the Baghdad pact. Prime Minister Daud ap- parently has not yet committee himself tc accepting any specif- ic project. 25X1 Moscow probably hopes the visit, and the promises of ad- ditional aid, will cause the Afghans to stand up more boldly against Pakistan and the'West. As a result of the visit, Prime Minister Daud's domestic'po- sition seems to have been fur- ther strengthened. The most important result of the visit was the Soviet offer to Afghanistan of $100,- 000,000 in long-term credits. Final terms are to be negotiated at a later date. Apparently So- viet and Afghan officials will hold discussions on the number and type of projects in which Soviet aid could be used, in- cluding the development of agri- culture, construction of hydro- electric stations, irrigation projects and the reconstruction of the Kabul airport. Prior to the announcement of the Soviet offer, Communist credits in Afghanistan amounted to $11,800,000, of which $5,000,- OOO.was extended by Czecho- slovakia, $6,800,000 by Moscow. While Kabul has committed only $1,500,000 of the $5,000,000 Czech credit, the entire $6,800,- 000 Soviet credit has been spent on such projects as grain ware- houses and roads. Improvement of the poor trade routes to the Soviet border will probably be stepped up, linking the Afghan economy even more closely with that of the USSR. The joint declaration signed at the end of the visit emphasized Soviet-Afghan agree- ment on a number of interna- tional issues. Joint drafting SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 3 of 18 Approved. For Release 2005/02/10 CIA-RDP79-0097 4000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY was apparent in the phrasing of the declaration. It did not go beyond an implication of Soviet support for Afghan- istan on the Pushtoonistan is- sue, and omitted the condemna- tion of military blocs included in the declarations the USSR had signed with Burma and India. Effects of UN Membership Increase The admission of 16 new members into the UN on 14 December, which focused atten- tion on the principle of uni- versal membership, has probably improved Peiping's prospects for admission. While the in- crease in Soviet bloc votes is minor, the Arab-Asian bloc may..new be able to muster a two-thirds vote on colonial issues embarrassing to the West. The endorsement by the General Assembly of Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Rumania negates the previously held theory that the UN should confer membership only on the basis of individual merit. The abandonment of this prin- ciple will enable many coun- tries to support the admission of the Peiping regime. In this connection, the admission. of Spain,despite a 1946 reso- lution condemning its conduct, will probably make it diffi- cult to cite the 1950 aggres- sor resolution as a bar to Peiping's entry. Although the increase in the USSR's voting strength to nine is not expected to reduce the West's dominant position in the UN, the growth in strength of the Arab-Asian bloc will add to the diffi- culties of the Western nations, particularly on The Soviet and Afghan foreign ministers also signed a protocol prolonging for ten years the Soviet-Afghan treaty of neutral- ity and nonaggression of 1931, but apparently added no new provisions Con- curred in by ORR) colonial and economic matters. The Arab-Asian bloc picked up six new members, bringing their total to 23. While in the past the bloc has not exhibited much unity or strong leadership, it is significant that this year the bloc was whipped into line on the touchy Algerian question by India's Krishna Menon. Should the bloc develop cohesiveness under a strong leader, its anticolonial bias, which the Latin American bloc shares, will involve the UN in other explosive "colonial" issues and further exacerbate rela tions between underdeveloped countries and colonial powers. The two largest blocs in the UN, the Arab-Asian and the Latin American, can claim 43 members, only eight votes less than two thirds of the total membership of the General Assembly. With the USSR's nine votes, these blocs could muster two-thirds major- ity control of the 76-member assembly. These blocs are composed primarily of small, underdeveloped nations, which usually enthusiastically sup- port any financing scheme accruing to their benefit at the expense of the big powers. The USSR can be expected to appeal to this tendency and to court bloc votes by supporting large-scale UN financing, SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 4 of 18 25X1 Approve For, Release 2005/02/ ,,;~ - P79-00~9277A000700060001-0 I 1'1, CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 price parity and technical assistance programs. Britain and the United States are currently financing the larger share of such UN programs now in operation. Western Europe increased its influence and representa= tion in the UN with six new members of which Italy, Spain Soviet Shift on UN Membership. By its sudden shift on the UN membership question, the USSR laid the foundation for its tactics in next year's debate on Chinese representa- tion. The proposal made on 14 December apparently re- versed Moscow's earlier maneu- ver to bring about the collapse of the entire membership effort by forcing the Chinese Nationalists to veto Outer Mongolia. The Soviet leaders had earlier appeared confident that they could throw the blame for the failure of the prolonged negotiations on the Chinese Nationalists and the United States and that this failure would spark immediate efforts to expel the National- ists from the UN. Deputy Foreign Minister Kuznetsov had strongly endorsed the Canadian 18-nation plan on 17 November, insisting that "18 or none" must be admitted, after the American delegate had declared that Outer Mon- golia "cannot make the grade." Soviet diplomats throughout the world made strenuous efforts to ensure that Outer Mongolia would receive the re- quired number of votes in both the Security Council and the assembly so that the Chinese Nationalists would have no choice but to veto Outer Mongolia. Soviet delegate Sobolev's statements at the 13 December and Portugal are strong sup- porters of the West who will probably aid the colonial powers in restraining the anticolonial groups. Austria and Finland, motivated by a desire not to offend the Soviet bloc, most likely will attempt to maintain a neutral position in the UN. Security Council session which defeated the 18-nation plan gave no indication of the next day's about-face. He accused the United States of wrecking the Canadian plan by insti- gating the Chinese Nationalist veto after earlier pressures on other delegations to induce them to withhold the necessary votes for Outer Mongolia had failed. Sobolev urged the council to ponder the situation when "one person, who repre- sents only himself," could obstruct the will of the United Nations, and to con- sider what could be done about it. Peiping's premature com- ment on the failure of this plan seems to indicate that the Chinese Communists were not given advance warning of the new Soviet plan excluding Japan. The American consul general in Hong Kong has sug- gested that it may have come as a surprise and even a shock to Peiping, which has been courting Japan with more emphasis on the carrot than on the stick. Moscow may have decided that the overwhelming support of the great majority of UN members for some solution of the membership deadlock at this session made its original tac- tics too risky. It therefore devised the 16-nation "compro- mise" plan which would have SECRET Approved For ReleasR ~JO ~ 179-00927A000700060Page 5 of 18 25X1 25X1 ApprovedWEQX, 2005/02$1yDP79- 90427 000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 the twin advantages of enabling the USSR to claim credit for resolving the deadlock and, at the same time, continuing to use Outer Mongolia's candidacy as a lever to force the expul- sion of the Chinese National- ists and the seating of the Chinese Communists--the main objective of its entire member- ship maneuver. While the USSR may origi- nally have hoped that the defeat of the membership effort by the collapse of the 18-nation plan would lead to the immediate ex- pulsion of the nationalists, its new plan has prepared the ground for a showdown battle on the Japanese Reaction To Veto on UN Membership The Japanese feel that the UN membership rebuff, along with other recent setbacks to their diplomacy, emphasizes their nation's weakness in inter- national affairs and its over- dependence on the Unites States. This reaction will strength- en the position of those, both within and outside the govern- ment, who favor increasingly in- dependent action to bolster Japan's international position. In seeking to improve its position, Tokyo probably will direct a primary effort toward developing closer ties with the Asian-African bloc. The belief that a self-sustaining economy is a prerequisite for an independent position also will prompt the Japanese to continue their drive to expand trade with the Soviet bloc. A concomitant development proba- bly will be a, decrease of the question of Chinese representa- tion next year. The USSR, in making Japan's admission con- tingent upon the simultaneous entry of Outer Mongolia, has in effect served notice on the UN and on the Japanese that Japan's admission is possible only if the United States agrees to admit Peiping and unseat the Nationalists, because the latter will never accept Outer Mongolia. Moscow's reversal is thus designed to confront the United States with a choice between acquiescing in the seat- ing of the Chinese Communists or continuing to support the Nationalists at the cost of Jaan's continued exclusion. government's resistance to leftist pressures for norma.li-? zation of relations with the Communist nations. Although the Soviet Union's second and third vetoes last week directed Japanese resentment toward the USSR as the primary obstacle to Jap- anese membership in the UN, press and official criticism was less than might have been expected, considering the extent of the Soviet actions. In fact, these actions have incited some grudging respect for Moscow's tough position and astute tac- tics. SECRET 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 DART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 6 of 18 Approve For, Release 2005/~ U?gT-RDP79-R09`227A000700060001-0 The Japanese appear to believe that a direct deal with the USSR in the peace treaty talks offers the best means for securing Soviet support for Japan's accession to the UN. Pressures for making concessions at the London talks are likely to grow and strengthen Prime Min- ister Hatoyamats inclination to concede on the territorial issue. Since the rejec- tion on 21 November of the Saudi Arabian proposals for renewed arbitration of the Buraimi dispute, the British have further alienated the Saudis by instigating a mil- itary campaign against a Saudi ally, the imam of Inner Oman. By tak- ing this firm stand, the British are at- tempting to stop the Saudi border encroach- ments into territory claimed by the British- controlled Persian Gulf rulers, and thereby maintain their politi- cal and economic priv- ileges in this oil rich area. On 12 December the sultan of Muscat and Oman initiated, with British support, a campaign to subdue his nominal subordi- nate, the imam of Inner Oman. The imp+ materially assistee by the Saudis.; SECRET Approved For Rele 8 SQ0Wel1 bkCMAE-NRfDP79-00927A0007000600000g1-o of 18 The Japanese are convinced, however, that the USSR intends to make their entry to the UN contingent on representation for Communist China and that no concessions, however expen- sive, will make Moscow drop its scheme. This conviction and natural Japanese reluctance to make concessions probably will enable the Foreign Ministry to maintain its present position temporarily when the suspended talks reopen. 25X1 British controlled territory. US companies have oil concession. UK-SAUDI DISPUTE British controlled territory Iraq Petroleum Co.(IPC) 2 US oil concessions Arabian-American Oil Co. (ARAMCO) Cities Service.. Richfield 25X1 Approve4lor Release 2005 ~CRET CIA-RDP79-Q2 , A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 25X6 has been asserting his inde- pendence for some time. The Saar Election Outcome The three pro-German parties won absolute control of the Saar Landtag in the 18 December elections but fell short of the 75-percent mandate needed to revise the constitu- tion. This may facilitate French agreement to a defini- tive settlement of the Saar problem in French-German ne- gotiations scheduled to begin in January. The outcome of the vote has eliminated the danger that an overwhelming pro-German victory might make the Saar a major issue in the French e- lections and thus tie Paris' hands in forthcoming negotia- tions. There is still the pos- sibility, however, that the ultranationalist Saar leader Schneider and his sympathizers in West Germany can sour the current French disposition to rely Bonn's good faith in fur- ther negotiations. At the moment, Paris seems prepared to relinquish all its claims to political authority in the Saar and to loosen its formal economic ties, provided basic French economic "rights and interests" are protected. French foreign minister Pinay and West German foreign minis- ter Von Brentano worked out such an agreement just before the Saar election, but the de- tails are being kept secret until after the French elec- tions. Paris will in any case insist on maintenance of the present economic union pend- ing a definitive solution. According to the agreement, Paris recognizes that the final stage of a definitive Saar set- tlement will not involve main- tenance of the French-Saar cus- toms and monetary union. one Quaff d'Orsay official now frank- ly envisages the prospect of the re-incorporation of the Saar into West Germany. Pend- ing a definitive solution, how- ever, France will insist that the present economic union re- main unchanged. The formation of a new Saar government will be delayed at least until 5 January, and the current "nonpolitical" caretaker government under Heinrich Welsch is expected to continue its duties until then. Meanwhile, an effort is be- ing made with the encourage- ment of Chancellor Adenauer SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 8 of 18 Approve Release 2005/ 0g'f' cll-RDP79-QQ 27A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 and the neighboring West Ger- man bishops to form one strong predominantly Catholic bloc by a merger of the dominant pro-German Christian Demo- cratic Union party with the Christian People'-s^Party? cif former premier Hoffmann, which held a surprisingly strong third place despite being at- tacked as pro French. Both are comparatively moderate groups;combined, they would control a slight majority of Landtag seats and could bar- gain to shunt Schneider into a subsidiary cabinet post. The draft of the-Soviet Union's sixth Five-Year Plan, for the years 1956-1960 will probably be made public a few weeks before it is presented to the 20th Party Congress next February. As the first Five-Year plan to bear the imprimatur of the "collective leadership," it can be ex petted to reflect its view of the Soviet ec.onomy'.'s poten- tials and problems. Its main outline is clearly indicated in recent policy speeches of Premier Bulganin and Party First Secretary Khrushchev.. Soviet industry will prob- ably in general follow the broad program laid downt)y Premier Bulganin in his speech to the Industrial Conference last May and his report on industry to the central com- mittee in July. The impq.rtance of heavy industry as the only "correct" base for continuing the development of the Soviet economy will be reaffirmed. The planned rate of,growth of industrial output over the next five years is unlikely to exceed that of the original fifth Five-Year Plant which has been substantially over- fulfilled. Schneider, however, is reported to be ambitious to figure on the West German political scene. Having called the nationalistic tune in the pre-election campaign, he also retains a powerful lever over the other pro-German groups, which still maintain their ties with each other. He is refusing to participate in forming a new Saar government except on his own terms. Pros- pect;e are for a period of con- tinuing agitation which will tend to foment trouble between According to current es- timates, production of all five basic commodities of Soviet industry--steel, pig iron, coal, electric power and petroleum--could within the next five years reach or surpass the long-range goals for the early 1960's an- nounced in 1946 by Stalin. ANNOUNCED GOALS FOR 1960-85 ESTIMATED 1960 1955 SET BY STALIN PRODUCTION PRODUCTION IN 1948 CAPABILITY F metric tone or 1 on owa ttt hours] Steel 45 80 61-84 Iron 33 50 50 Coal 391 500 600 Electric Power 168 260 275-300 011 70 60 125-135 The basic need for rapid- ly increasing the productivity of labor to compensate for a diminishing rate of growth of the industrial labor force has finally forced the Soviet Union to face the problem of obsoles- cence. Emphasis will be placed on ,automation and other techno- logical innovations. For the first time, large-scale mod- ernization of aging indus- trial installations will be included in the plan. In ad- dition, the first major ad- justment of wage rates and production norms since World War II can be expected as a result of work done by the 25X1 SECRET PART II Approved For Rele, OT:RfJ04j@W1(tpQWaRIPB79-00927A0007000p%, 1-fl) of 18 Approved Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-0 9,?A000700060001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY State Committee on Problems of Labor and Wages, headed by Kag- anovich. Other industrial programs to be stressed are: speeding up the industrialization of Siberia; increasing industrial specialization, wherein indi- vidual plants will concentrate on the production of fewer items; and increased authority for economic administrt,tors at lower levels. The 1960 goals for agri- culture have been laid down by Khrushchev in his speeches on the "new lands" and livestock programs, the latter calling for an eightfold increase in acreage of fodder corn. These twin schemes are at the core of plans to increase, grain production.by 50 perce"c or more, to double state output of meat and other livestock products, and to increase wool production by 80 percent. De- spite some early disappointments, Khrushchev has claimed that these goals can be met well be- fore 1960. The plan will Bulganin Defends the Cominform Marshal Bulganin authorita- tively reasserted Soviet support of the Cominform in the course of his New Delhi press confer- ence on 14 December. His some- what rhetorical defense was in effect a direct rejection of Western and Indian suggestions that the Cominform should be abolished as a concession to coexistence.. Bulganin argued that the Cominform has a right to exist as an international, nongovern- mental organization comparable to the Socialist International or "capitalist international monopoly associations," implying that each of the three types of organizations was a legitimate international spokesman for a particular economic class. He probably devote substantial re- sources to agriculture,. but it is expected that the targets will be missed by wide margins. The rate of growth in the production of manufactured con- sumer goods will be high, with those industries not dependent on agricultural raw materials showing the greatest gains. Textile production, for-ex- ample, is to increase only about 50 percent, according to the Soviet press, but much higher targets will be set for durable consumer goods. Recent Soviet statements indicate that the Sixth Five- year Plan will be an ambitious program for rapid growth of the USSR's maturing economy, and will be presented as a significant step from state socialism toward Communism. Basic to the fulfillment of the plan will be the success of the industrial moderniza- tion effort in raising labor productivity and the achieve- ment of the agricultural and (Prepared by ORR5 livestock goals. restated the Soviet claim that the Cominform exists for ex- change of information and ex- perience between Communist parties, the spokesmen for the working classes. Bulganin's statement was especially significant because it runs counter to Prime Min- ister Nehru's publicly ex- pressed opinion that the activ- ities of the Cominform are inconsistent with the Chou- Nehru "five principles" which India and the USSR have re- affirmed during the Bulganin- Khrushchev visit. It is also the most specific public de- fense of the Cominform made by a top Soviet official in recent years. The statement indicates that the USSR is pre- pared to accept the diplomatic embarrassment which the SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 10 of le 25X1 SECRET Approved Release 2 5/02/10: CIA-RDP79-( OA000700060001-0 25X1 existence of the Cominform en- tails to preserve it as a'weap- on in the "peaceful open com- petition of capitalist and so- cialist systems" advocated by Moscow. Bulganin's justification of the Cominform does not elim- inate the possibility that the USSR is considering new organi- zational forms embracing more Communist parties and perhaps some Socialist parties as well. Soviet spokesmen discreetly proposed to representatives of the Norwegian and Austrian So- cialist parties in.late Novem- ber that direct relationships be established between each of Soviet Objectives in the Antarctic Participation in the In- ternational Geophysical Year (IGY) (1957-58) provides the them and the Soviet Communist Party. Khrushchev, in accepting a Norwegian Socialist counter- offer of an exchange of journal- ists, expressed the hope for party relations "when the neces- sary conditions mature." Since the Yugoslavia, visit by Soviet leaders last May, Soviet and Satellite parties have also gone on record in favor of re- establishing relationships with the Yugoslav Communists. The possibility of expand- ing the Cominform to include non-European Communist parties is suggested by increased empha- sis in the Cominform journal on Asia., Africa, and Latin America. 25X1 USSR with the opportunity to become entrenched in the Ant- arctic. PLANNED SOVIET ANTARCTIC STATIONS 1956 -1959 ? Sites proposed-Sept. 1955 ? Sites proposed-Dec. 1455 Polar Station SECRET Judging by the number of scientific workers scheduled for participation, the variety of scientific activities planned, the air-hop method of operation, and the advance start on the work, the Soviet pro- gram of IGY observa- tions and non-IGY ex- ploration and mapping appears to be more comprehensive than that planned by any other participating country. More than 70 specialists will arrive in the Antarc- tic in late January on the specially out- fitted vessel Ob. A second ship, the Lena, has also left the USSR for the Antarctic. With the arrival of these ships, work will begin on establishment of the PART II Approved For Ref 6 J00k/' if"-P79-00927A000700060,00g 1- 11 of 18 Approve F io Release 2005/&E16R&,T-RDP79-qW2 A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY "first Soviet observatory in the Antarctic" and the main Soviet coastal station, Mirnyy. As soon as possible in 1956, this expedition will be- gin exploration to determine the sites for two inland sta- tions, Vostok and Sovetskaya,. and will begin limited geo- physical observations, All stations are to be completed and a full observation program under way by January 1957, six months prior to the official beginning of the IGY. The USSR hopes to estab- lish an intercontinental air route between Antarctica and the USSR via Australia, India and Indonesia. It has already made a formal request to Aus- tralia for airport. and mari- time facilities. If the Aus- tralians grant these rights, the movement of scientific per- sonnel, equipment and supplies will be expedited. The USSR has never.. offi- cially claimed any part of the Antarctic, but continued occu- pation of Soviet whaling or sci- entific bases following the IGY could lead to "effective occu- pation." Recent Soviet state- ments on the importance of the Antarctic for long-range. weather forecasting and the announcement of plans "to study the question of supply bases" for whaling suggest the arguments the USSR will use to maintain this foot- hold. If challenged, the USSR would be likely to defend its rights on the basis of its a- chievements in the exploration, and its surveying and mapping of previously unexplored areas. It may further claim that as a leader in polar research, it would make major scientific con- tributions of value to the whole world if it continued its effort after 195.8. It may also attempt to emphasize the weak foundation for the claims of the various countries and to disclaim them as opportunistic and of no benefit to mankind as a whole. Such a position might be difficult to dispute since so much of the Ant- arctic, particularly the area of Soviet activity, is still un- explored. The scientific gains which would accrue to the USSR from a program of continuous work in the Antarctic could secure it a lead- ing position in polar geophysics, since it has been the leader in Arctic scientific work for many years. This research and experi- ence could have significant mili- tary implications in polar flying, guided--missile development, and polar land, sea and submarine oper- ations. Prepared jointly by ORR n";;~= 25X1 Soviet Party Membership Increased Sig nificamy According to a recent speech by N. D. Khrushdhev to the. Indian Parliament, the Soviet Communist Party now has 8,000,000 members, 1,000,000 more than it May 1953. This is a significantly more rap- id rate of increase than prevailed. in preceding postwar years and:Ap- parently marks a reversal of the postwar policy of restricting party membership reaffirmed by Malenkov at the 19th Part! Con- gress in October 1952. The main emphasis under that policy had been on improving the quality of the party. From 1947 to 1952 the net increase in membership was only about 582,000. The present expansion of the party membership appears to reflect the views of First Sec- retary Khrushchev and may he re- lated to the campaign he initiated in the fall. of 1953 to bolster col- lective and state farms with party cadres. 25X1 SECRET Approved For Releass f/0A :9 J?-00927A000700060$Oa1--O g 12 of 18 Approved Release 2005/$E4R1A-RDP79-O6 f?A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE: WEEKLY ?S MARY 22 De.cemle"r 1955 Soviet MilitaryPromotions Since Stalin s Dead The promotion of four.So- viet army generals revealed in press accounts of the October Revolution celebration. brings to 41 the number of known'pro motions to three-star rank and above in the Soviet military since Stalin's death. The con=trast between this number in two and a half year:s.and the 12 comparable promotions in the, eight-year postwar pericVd coder Stalin reveals the greater rec- ognition now accorded milit.Ty'.. leaders, particularly operational commanders. Stalin's dis- trust of professional military officers was probably a pri- mary factor in his slighting of mil- itary leaders. The more numerous pro- motions since Sta- lin's death prob- ably includemany long-overdue advance- ments and reflect a desire of tfie `p"re?erit re?;ime to improve morale and efficiency within the higher ranks of the pro- fessional officer corps. The promotion of A. S. . zfadov to army .;general suggests the influence of Marshal Konev, under whom he served for several SOVJLT MILITARY PROMOTIONS iJNDER? STALIN and A. V. Gorbatov, commander .of the Baltic MD adjacent to the Baltic Sea. All served under- Defense Minister Zhukov duri.ng the storming of Berlin, an'd'd two of them--Gorbatov and Fedyuninski--remained in Ger- many with him after the end of hostilities. L SOVIET UNION POST-STALIN 1953 -1955 lillif fffffffffff iliftlll No military district or fleet commander was promoted under Stalin. Of the four of ficers whose promotions to the rank of army general were re- vealed on 7 November, however., three are military district commander-s whose---new- -r4n-k-.is_._.---:; commensurate with their respon- sibilities in exposed peripheral areas of the USSR,. These of- ficers are: A. A. Luchinski,, commander of the Turkestan MD which touches on the Iran-Afghan- istan border; 1, 1, Fedyuni.nsk,i, commander of the Transcaucasus MD bordering on Turkey and Iran; years during and after World War II. 25X1 The 41 promotions to three- star rank or above include those of four individuals who have been promoted twice since Stalin's ----d.ea.th,.: bu.t-. do.. -not include that of KGB chairman Serov to army general. Of the 41 officer's pro- moted, 22, including 1,1 military district commanders and four fleet commanders, were in oper- ational commands at the time of promotion. The other 19, of SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 13 of 18 SECRET Approved%FmoV Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY which four are air force officers, were in Moscow in administrative or staff capacities. Of those officers advanced under Stalin, only four were in operational commands, while eight were in Moscow. None of the men promoted since Stalin's death are po- litical officers. One--Fleet Laos The campaign for the 25 December national assembly e- lections has been relatively calm. The Pathet Lao, which is not participating in the e- lection because of failure to reach a political settlement with the royal government, has confined its activities to prop- aganda urging voters to stay away from the polls. The two leading parties-- Premier Katay's Progressives and Foreign Minister Phoui's independents--have formed a loose alliance aimed at block- ing the election of any Pathet- supported candidates. These parties now have 28 of the pres- ent' 34 deputies and are each expected to win about one third of the assembly seats. Four Pathet sympathizers have been recognized among the 228 candi- dates for the assembly's 39 seats. With one possible ex- ception, their prospects for election are poor. Ngon Sananikone, commerce minister and brother of Phoui, anticipates that the balance of Admiral N. G. Kuznetsov--is a full member of the party central committee and seven are candi- date members of the committee. TWO of the officers elevated under Stalin--Marshal Bulganin and Admiral S. E. Zakharov-- were political officers and both were full members of the central committee. power in the cabinet will re- main substantially the same, with Phoui agreeing to leave the-premiership to Katay. The apparent victory of Katay over Defense Minister Souvanna Phouma for control of the Progressive Party and the reported willing- ness of Phoui to continue to co-operate with Katay indicates that rivalries among the three leaders will not precipitate a postelection repetition of last October's cabinet crisis. The government is pre- paring for voting to take place in the areas it controls in the disputed northern prov- inces. The government will probably declare that the elections constitute the po- litical settlement envisaged in the Geneva agreements and call on Pathet Lao troops to accept reintegration into the national community. If, as anticipated, the Pathets re- fuse to comply, the govern- ment may step up military and political pressure to break Pathet control of the two northern provinces. SECRET 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES.AND COMMENTS Page 14 of 18 Approved Release 2005&O4F8FR-RDP79- A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Malaya Preliminary arrangements have been completed for a meet- ing during the last week of December between Malayan chief minister Abdul ,ahman and Sec- retary General Chin Peng of the Malayan Communist Party. Rah- man, who lately appears to have taken a more determined stand against the Communists, is re- ported to be losing interest in seeing Chin Peng but has said he is willing to do so in a "final effort to knock sense into him." Rahman has reiterated that in any meeting with the Com- munist leader, he is willing only to explain the government's 8 September amnesty and to lis- ten to Communist suggestions on the government's offer. A Malayan official informed the American consulate general in Kuala Lumpur that Rahman plans to seek official approval from his own party--the Alliance which holds 51 of 52 elected seats in the Legislative Coun- cil--for the resumption of all- out war against the Communists if Chin Peng officially refuses to accept the amnesty. This resumption was ordered on 1 December by the Malayan gov- ernment without reference to Sudanese Independence, The Sudanese parliament's "declaration" of independence on 19 December has been accepted by Britain and Egypt in whose name the country has been gov- erned since 1899. Uncertainty remains, however, whether the move will make unnecessary the convening of the international commission which was to super- vise the process of Sudanese self-determination. the party after a heavy Com- munist. attack in central Malaya. A Communist press release of 17 November demanded a re- drafted agenda for the Rahman- Chin Peng talks and rejected the amnesty as set forth,. Rah- man, however, apparently has chosen to ignore this move in favor of a more official re- fusal. The Communists' efforts to arrange the talks despite a clear conflict with the govern- ment on the purpose of the meet- ing indicate their continued desire to achieve some sort of recognition and thereby acquire greater scope for political activity and subversion. Re- gardless of the outcome of present arrangements, Communist efforts in this direction may be expected to continue. Rahman leaves for London on 2 January for talks on self- government. The British high commissioner in Malaya an- nounced on 30 November that progress toward self-govern- ment need not be retarded by Communist maneuvers. The declaration--a resolu- tion requesting Britain and Egypt to recognize the inde- pendence of the Sudan--was passed unanimously after Prime Minister Azhari proposed to introduce it as a device to add prestige to his weakening cabinet. Opposition parties, however, are expected to con- tinue to press for Azhari's removal in favor of a "national" coalition government. SECRET Approved For Rele 5/ 10 ? -RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 AND G~?MMENTS Page 15 of 18 25X1 25X1 Approves Release 2005/O t ' -RDP79- TA000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY S.UMEARY Constitutional Crisis In Gold Coast On the threshold of inde- pendence, the Gold Coast, Britain's West African colony, is faced with internal dissen- sion over its future constitu- tional structure and the role of tribal authorities. Recent legislation has intensified de- mand's of the opposition coali- tion for a decentralized fed- eral, system and has also ap- parently stalled the efforts of a. British adviser to work out a, compromise. Tension has been mounting since September 1954, when the National Liberation Movement (NLM) was launched to press for a. federal system of govern- ment. The native council of the important Ashanti region, the principal source of NLM support, threatened violence in November when the Legislative Assembly voted to bring sub- ordinate chiefs more directly under the control of the cen- tral government con- trolled by Prime Minister Nkrumah's Convention. People's Party (CPP). Explo- sions occurred at the residence of the prime-minister in Accra, and excitement ran high throughout Ashanti. The wide- spread disorders and an Ashanti se- cession attempt feared by the_.Amerioan_.. consul general did not materialize, how- ever, and by the end of the month the situation was report- ed somewhat eased. Nevertheless, press sources indicate that sporadic vio- lence is continuing in Ashanti at a higher than normal rate. Meanwhile, an important Northern Territories tribal council has declared it would oppose self-government for the Gold Coast and might even secede if the peoples of the Northern Territories are not given special arrangements to manage their own affairs. The fundamental issue be- hind the bitterness over fed- eralism is the character, organi- zation and direction of the new Gold Coast state. The most in- fluential and articulate of the diverse opposition elements are traditional tribal authorities and conservative African middle- class leaders who, with inde- pendence now in sight, are in- creasingly concerned over their future status in a unitary state SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 16 of 18 25X1 ApprovetloW Release 200 2( 0-,IA-RDP79-OfiWA000700060001-0 SECR CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 25X1 dominated by the CPP. They dislike CPP leaders, whom they consider "upstarts," and fear the impact of the CPP's Western-inspired concepts of political and social organiza- tion on traditional values and institutions. The attempts of the British constitutional expert invited by the Gold Coast government to facilitate discussions on the expansion of regionalism have so far failed. Since the passage of the controversial November legislation, the NLM and the Ashanti council have completely boycotted these consultations. London, which has had high hopes for the Gold Coast's Greece Political maneuvering is intensifying in Greece in an- ticipation of a royal proclama- tion dissolving parliament and a call for national elections. Elections, which would be re- quired within 45 days, may be held as early as February. Prime Minister Karamanlis faces a hard election fight. Karamanlis, without a popu- lar mandate, has been unable to exploit the almost universal approval his appo*ntmAnt - ceived in October. Disaffection Growing in Argentina New large-scale arrests and a report on the existence of a new "revolutionary move- ment" in Argentina suggest that the Aramburu government's force- ful program to crush all sources early accession to Commonwealth membership, is concerned over the present situation. How- ever, Britain considers itself no longer in a position to in- terfere in Gold Coast internal affairs and thus is unlikely to intervene unless there is a complete collapse of the author- ity of the central government. If some reconciliation of basic issues is not made soon and the government persists in acts which inflame the opposi- tion, the position of the seri- ously weakened CPP regime is likely to deteriorate further. Such a development could en- danger the transfer of full sovereignty, which is widely anticipated by the beginning; of 1957. Victory in the elections for Karamanlis' new party is still probable, but its ma- jority may be narrow. Develop- ments on the Cyprus issue and the unresolved Greek-Turkish wrangle may seriously affect the prime minister's prospects. of Peron's former strength may be alienating part of its sup- port from the military who served under Peron. Though President Aramburu still seems to have control, the arrests SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 17 of 18 25X1 25X1 SECRET ApprovedeFeW Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY tend to belie the communiques about unity within the regime which appears to be increasing- ly strained by interservice rivalries. 5X1 able popular support. Although Ara.hiburu still appears in control, disunity within the regime could be exploited to force new changes among top government officials. ;vioreover, the government may be losing the psychological battle for popular support in view of the many rumors of possible antigovernment action by pro-Peronista.s as well as by elements favoring Lona,rdi, who apparently retains consider- SECRET 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART II NOTES AND COMMENTS Page 18 of 18 SECRET Approve' Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-O'A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES THE RIGHT-CENTER COALITION IN THE FRENCH ELECTION In the three-cornered French election battle between the present government coalition, Mendes-France's Republican Front, and the Communists, the conserv- ative Independent-Peasant bloc which forms the right wing of Faure's coalition will prob- ably gain the greatest number of seats. This group, basically conservative, has shown consid- erable flexibility, particularly in recent months, on wage issues as well as in foreign affairs. The conservative elements, which were in almost complete disrepute following the Liber- ation, had regained their old parliamentary pre-eminence by the end of the 1951-55 assembly. In 1946 and early 1947, France had been ruled by an uneasy Leftist alliance of Communists, Socialists and Popular Republi- cans. In mid-1947, when the Communists moved into open op- position and the Gaullist Rally branched off to the right, the Socialists and the Popular Republicans had to rely on the Radical Socialists to continue governing. From then on the dominant parties of the prewar era slowly regained influence. As Radical prestige reasserted itself, the Socialists slid gradually into the opposition, and the Popular Republicans, despite their social and economic af- finity for the Socialists, found themselves increasingly pris- oners of the conservatives. The 1951 election resulted in a big cut in Communist repre- sentation, but the non-Communist left was also weakened. The conservative forces held a major- ity, and it was only a matter of time until the Gaullis.ts ac- cepted cabinet responsibility. The government was then clearly dominated by the right. Pinay's Conservative Bloc In Faure's coalition, the conservative bloc, now headed by Foreign Minister Pinay and including his own Independent Party as well as the Peasants, Independent Peasants and the Gaullist Social Action Republi- cans, has consistently increased in strength and prestige,in the outgoing assembly. The group, including a considerable number of the strongly conservative elements, such as rightist Peasant Antier and ex-Gaullist Barrachin, has been sufficiently flexible on major issues to ad- just to coalitions shading slightly to the right or slightly to the left. Mendes-France's attempts in the present cam- paign to make a clear division between non-Communist left and right have had the effect of further strengthening the bloc. Pinay's economic policies, which have tended to lead his party and the whole bloc away from outright standpattism, have been called the right cen- ter's answer to Mendes-France. While Pinay's approach differs in method and is more conserva- tive in tempo than that of Men- des-France, it is also directed at the eventual realization of a dynamic free-enterprise system. Pinay is trying to com- pete with Mendes-France's ap- peal to youth. He has advo- cated a cut in military con- scription, and suggested the possibility of granting young married couples state loans which could be partially amortized through special allowances for the birth of children. In for- eign affairs, he backs the At- lantic Community and the Euro- pean integration concept. The right wing of the Independents, as well as the SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 1 of 16 Approver Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-GQ 7A000700060001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SCARY 22 December 1955 more deeply conservative groups with whom they have allied, balk at some of Pinay's views. The Extreme Right The extreme right of the Faure coalition is made up of the ex-Gaullist Social Action Republicans. Pinay induced the latter to break with De Gaulle's Rally in 1952, and they have since participated in all the right-center govern- ments. The other of the two ex- Gaullist groups, the Social Republicans, leans much farther to the left in economic policy, but still clings to Gaullist concepts in its opposition to European integration and its strong nationalism. Although it is at odds, therefore, with the Faure-Pinay.foreign policy, three fourths of it is now al-- lied with the government co- alition for the election. The outlook is not bright; for either Gaullist party in this campaign: Although many dISTS PROGRESSIVES REPUBLICANS -c I n Gaullist deputies have personal followings, they depended to a large extent in 1951 on De Gaulle's prestige, and much of their support is expected to be spread over all the non- Communist groups, the bulk of it going to the Independents. All elements of the con- servative bloc, but particularly the right wing, will probably lose votes to the many electoral lists being run by the Poujade antitax movement and by extreme nationalists. These groups are expected to be strong enough in 15'or 20 districts to block a Pinay-Faure majority, thereby making proportional representa- tion mandatory and assuring the Communists some seats they would otherwise have lost. This ex- treme right, however, will prob- ably win no more than 12 or 15 seats itself and will probably not prevent substantial gains. by the Pinay forces. The right-wing Radicals, who under Premier Faure are SECRET ~t'i OF THE RE4UBLICAN LEFT - 0.A DEMOC AND SOCIALISTTUN ON OF THE RESISTANCE UQ$ _-_ Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 2 of 16 Approor Release 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP727A000700060001-0 SECRET CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 aligned with the conservatives, are generally in accord with the Pinay program for economic reform. Faure, himself an ad- vocate of a program similar to that of Mendes-France, moreover is closely identified with the country's present wave of pros- perity. He has already played on this as a promise of a better living standard in an effort to win support for parliamentary reform permitting easier dis- solution of the assembly to ensure government stability. Faure's strong position on the Atlantic Alliance places him very close to Pinay on foreign affairs, and the premier seems to have won Pinay over to the government's present North Af- rica policy. The position of the Rad- icals in the right-center co- alition has been weakened, however, by the split between Faure and Mendes-France. The party has long used to advan- tage its lack of cohesiveness and its consequent ability to represent standpattism in some areas and enlightened reform in others. The split, however, formalizes the left-right dif- ferences within the party and, for this election at least, has resulted in two separate parties. The Radical strength in the next assembly will depend on whether the split is patched up, but Mendes-France's bitter attacks on right-center foreign policy and the business inter- ests supporting the conserva- tives may have permanently alienated his own right wing. Personal antagonisms resulting from his expulsion of Faure, Rene Mayer and other prominent Radicals will make future party solidarity more difficult. Popular Republicans From a -postwar position of strength comparable to that of the Communists, the Popular Republicans have lost ground consistently,;especially?to the Gaullists. They have had the continuing problem of try- ing to "face toward the left" and participate at the same time in right-center coalitions On economic issues they mesh more easily with the So- cialists, but they line up with the right and the Gaullists in support of state subsidies to church schools. Moreover, their continued participation in right- ist-dominated governments leaves them open to the charge of slid- ing to the right. To counter these charges, the Popular Republicans in their congress last May directed their efforts toward conciliating the Socialists. The church-school issue was soft-pedaled and a secretary general known to fa- vor a rapprochement with the Socialists was elected. Al- though they have been unable to make any alliances with the Socialists in this campaign, The Popular Republicans have refrained from aligning a- gainst them in some areas in the hope of avoiding a com- plete break with the left. The party's platform calls for political and economic re- form aimed at "reconstruction of parliamentary prestige" and expansion of the economy with state aid. In foreign affairs "independence within inter- dependence" for North Africa is the slogan, along with a re- vival of European integration and the preservation of the East-West detente through diplo- matic negotiation. George Bidault, the Popu- lar Republican' leader most directly identified with the party's domination over for- eign policy in the present assembly, appears to be in near eclipse as a prominent party figure. Robert Schuman, its other former foreign min- ister, seems to have regained considerable prestige after a temporary eclipse, but the SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 3 of 16 Approver Release 20SEC 05/02/1 RC lA-RDP79 7A000700060001-0 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY 22 December 1955 party's chief spokesman now appears to be Pierre Pflimlin, finance minister in the Faure cabinet. General Prospects The inconsistencies in policy aims and programs that appear within the right-center coalition will probably prevent it from realizing a workable majority in the elections. Its inability to form broad al- liances is causing Pinay con- siderable concern, and is ex- pected to contribute to an in- crease in Communist strength. It appears, in any event, that the coalition will move more clearly into a moderate rightist position in the new assembly since its strength will rest on the gains made by the conservative bloc, par- ticularly Pinay's Independ- ent . Party. It will still, how- ever, be unable to govern without some support from the non-Communist left, the sit- uation which was responsible for the instability of the outgoing assembly. TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES IN BERLIN West Berlin, situated 110 miles inside the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and thus subject to complete or partial Communist interdiction of its vulnerable supply lines from the West, is again being subjected to intermittent harassment by the East Ger- mans. While the USSR has notified Western powers that in practice the USSR will continue to assume responsi- bility for free access to West Berlin of Allied garri- sons and their supplies, GDR spokesmen assert control over all other. movement by road, rail, and waterway between Western Germany and Berlin. Their immediate objective appears to be initiation of East-West German talks at cabinet-minister level as a form of de facto recognition. percent (2,604,000 metric tons) of all goods taken in- to West Berlin and 54 per- cent (528,000 metric tons) of that coming out was carried on the highways. There are four roads des- ignated for interzonal high- way traffic within East Ger- many between West Berlin and the Federal Republic. All are in good condition, with the exception of one bridge over the Elbe at Dessau, which is under repair. The main high- way connection is the Helm- stedt Autobahn, which extends from West Berlin past Potsdam to Brunswick and Hanover in the German-Federal Republic., Other routes used are Highway No. 5 to Hamburg, and the Hof and Wartha-Herleshausen Auto- bahns. Buses and trucks are the most important of the various means of transport between West Germany and Berlin. In 1954, when access was rela- tively free of harassment, 41 Of these four routes., only the Helmstedt Autobahn is clearly mentioned in an Allied- Soviet agreement as available. for Western use. The other three are avai~able for the West only by sufferance of the Communists. The four SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 4 of 16 Approved Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79- A000700060001-0 __ ECRET... CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUBARY WEST GERMANY Hannover 46isfel _.e ECT ID---GERMAN PORT ION ROUTES Rothensee ship lift Brandenburg P0 BERLIN instruction interzonal highways are under control of the East German police. The border check points of the Helmstedt Auto- bahn, however, are under Soviet control. . In 1954, 941,644 West Ger- man vehicles used the four highways--of which 312,091 were trucks, 41,652 buses, 433,314 passenger cars and 154,587 motorcycles--with 57 percent of them traveling the Helmstedt Autobahn. East Germany taxes all these vehicles and exer- cises a direct control over the flow of traffic by its border checks. The second most important transport medium, the railroads, 1 a MILES accounted for 35 percent (2,256,000 metric tons) of the tonnage brought in- to Berlin and 24 percent (236,000 metric tons) of that taken out in 1954. German passen- ger trains to West Berlin move over four specified rail routes. Allied trains and all freight trains are restricted to the Helmstedt-Marienborn line, and empty cars are returned to.the Federal Republic via Oebisfelde. Locomotives are in short supply in East Germany and are mostly of ancient vintage. This lack of adequate equip- ment affects Western traffic since all trains from the Federal Republic, including Allied passenger and freight trains, are moved by East German locomotives while in. the GDR. Rails in East Germany are worn and un- even, and wooden ties in the roadbed have been burned and weakened in many places by the inferior type of brown coal which slips through locomotive fire grates. There are 13 freight trains from'the Federal Republic to Berlin daily, authorized by a 1945 agreement between the Western Allies and the USSR. These 13 trains include all Allied military freight traf- fic. There are also 10 German, two American and one British passenger trains a day and two French military trains per week. The 13 inbound freight trains have a maximum carrying capacity per train of 800 tons. SECRET PART III Approved For Ilysp 2005/02/10: CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 T RNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 5 of 16 Approver Release 2005~A,2/.ZQ,- f-'L -RDP79 7A000700060001-0 SET' CURRENT INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Since 1948, East Germany has been building an outer freight ring avoiding West Berlin, to permit its trains to go around instead of through the Western sectors. At the present time the ring is prob- ably adequate for most of the freight traffic to East Berlin that would normally have used the West Berlin yards, even though the ring has not been completed and one detour must still be used. In addition to the rail lines themselves, ex- tensive shunting facilities are being developed to replace the Western sector freight yards normally used by the East German railroads in Berlin. Water transportation in 1954 accounted for 23 percent (1,425,000 metric tons) of the tonnage brought into West Ber- lin and 19 percent (181,000 metric tons) of that taken out. Greater Berlin Water transportation is used primarily for bulk goods such as fuels; building materials, iron and grain. The average transit time from the Ruhr to Berlin via the Mittelland sys- tem is about six days for self- propelled craft and 12 days for barges under tow. The volume of barge traf- fic is subject to wide seasonal fluctuations because of freez- ing of waterways, high water in spring and low water from Sep- tember to December. In 1954, 10,647 barges moved between West Berlin and the Federal Re- public. During the same year, 13,327 East German barges car- ried 2,843,270 tons of goods through West Berlin. The principal canals con- necting the Elbe and Oder Rivers pass through the Western sectors of Berlin, thus provid- ing through access to many points of East and West Germany, Autobahn Highway Railroad --Elevated railroad Subway Canal 25X1 TRF ELa SPanda;q~ Shin Cana( SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 6 of 16 Approved Release 2005/ gEitRDP79-Q09A000700060001-0 the North and Baltic Seas, Po- land and Czechoslovakia. The principal routes are the Havel and Elbe Rivers, and the Mittel- land Canal system. Eastern water connections are made either through the Havel River and the Hohenzollern Canal or via the Spree River and the Oder-Spree Canal to the Oder River, which forms part of the border of Poland. The East German authorities built the Paretz-Niederneuen- dorf Canal in 1951-52 to bypass Berlin to the West. However, barges used by East Germany range from 500 to 1,500 tons in size, and this canal can accommodate only those displac- ing 600 tons or less. The larger barges must use water- ways within Berlin, including the Upper and Lower Havel and the Spree Rivers, the Teltow and Landwehr Canals, and the Spandau and Neukoelln ship canals. The most important lock on the East German waterways is the Rothensee Shiplift, which has been the site of serious interruptions in water transport. It has been closed from time to time (once for nearly a year) on the pretext of needing repairs, effectively disrupting barge traffic on the Weser-Elbe portion of the Mittelland system. The East German canal sys- tem is under the control and supervision of the GDR Inland Waterways Directorate, which charges anchorage fees for all vessels in these waterways. East-West German barge move- ments have been subject to con- trol procedures agreed to be- tween Great Britain and the Soviet Union in 1951, the basic waterways agreement being renewed each year until December 1954 when the USSR turned the matter over to the East Ger- mans. At present, 1,600 West German barges are licensed for interzonal transport. Air transport is used for 3 percent (33,000 metric tons) of the goods moved from West Berlin to the Federal Republic. The city's air connections with the West are of particular sig- nificance because they are the only means of transport not susceptible to East German con- trol. All flights between West Berlin and the Federal Republic must use three air corridors established by agreement of the four powers in 1945. All West- ern commercial lines presently use Tempelhof, which is located in the American sector of Ber- lin and is the largest of the Berlin airports. Other fields are Gatow, used by the British, Tegel, a French airfield, and Schoenefeld, located outside of East Berlin. The use of the corridors and the Berlin circle--the area around Berlin in which aircraft maneuver for landing-- is restricted to planes of. the Allied powers and is subject to procedures and rules estab- lished by the quadripartite Air Safety Center, the only four-power body still function- ing in the city. The supervi- sion of operations in East German air space outside the three corridors is legally in the hands of GDR authorities, and nonmilitary , carriers such as the Czech, Polish, Bulgarian and Soviet airlines are licensed to operate and land at Schoene- feld. For all practical pur- poses, however, the Soviet authorities control the air space. In addition to military air traffic of the three West- ern powers, three airlines (American, British and French) provide service between Berlin and the Federal Republic, cur- rently operating a total of 230 passenger flights a week out of Tempelhof. SECRET Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 PART III PATTERNS AND PERSPECTIVES Page 7 of 16 Approver Release 2005W nmENTIAL Transportation In Berlin After the po- litical split of Berlin in the fall of 1948, the city transport company (BVG) was divided into Eastern and -RDP79Qpi7A000700060001-0 WATERWAYS 23% tions on 1 July 1949. East-West bus trans- portation was dis- continued at that time, and in January 1953, streetcar service between the two parts of the city was stopped, leaving only the subway and elevated trains on- erating between the sectors. ROADS 41% 1954 millions of tons 2 F1 The elevated system is in- dependent of the BVG, being under the East German railway directorate. It extends out- side the city into East Ger- many, and serves 125 stations within Berlin, 74 of which are in the West sector. East Ger- man Transport Police claim con- trol over these 74 stations and have from time to time ex- ercised their authority. .When the BVG was split in 1949, about 60 percent of the subway trains and streetcars and 75 percent of the buses. were kept by the BVG in West Berlin. In 1954, the $VG West served 566,600,000 passengers, of which 50 percent traveled by streetcar, 23 percent by subway and 27 percent by bus. Surface transportation includes 40 separate street- car lines with a total of 270 miles of track in the Western sectors. The BVG West has 405 double-decker and 50 smaller buses, serving 44 lines in West Berlin which total 305 miles in length. The only BVG service which operates between East and West Approved For Release 200 PART III PATTER WEST GERMAN - BERLIN COMMERCE NII TAIL 2/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 AND PERSPECTIVES Page 8 of 16 Berlin is the subway, and the control and operation of the track and service is divided between the two administra- tions, depending on the loca- tion of the line. The subway system is constructed roughly in the shape of a square and comprises five lines which total 47 miles in length, of which about 68 percent is in the Western sectors. The sub- way car pool totals about 800 units, of which approximately 714 are.in use. Motor traffic within the city of Berlin has become in- creasingly heavy during the past years, and in 1954, 100,- 599 vehicles were registered in the West sectors. These motor vehicles move between East and West Berlin with rela- tive freedom, being subject to control and search by both West Berlin and Communist customs authorities and border police. Other Utilities in Berlin The gas, water, electric power and telephone lines operate independently in East and West Berlin. The East and West sectors use a common sewer system. Other matters, such as police controls and fire 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0 Approved For Release 2005/02/10 : CIA-RDP79-00927A000700060001-0