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December 20, 2016
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March 10, 2006
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August 4, 1967
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Approved For Re'IrrSe 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A0~8i4000700 -2 S1ecret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Secret 50 4 Aug 1967 No. 0301/67 State Department review completed Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A005900070001-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Re1e 2007/03/1 4 F F D}'79-00927A0B'00070001-2 VIETNAM Attacks on Marine units near the Demilitarized Zone, and rocket attacks on US and South Vietnamese Army positions north of Saigon interrupted the general lull in military activity in South Vietnam this week. In Saigon, the ground rules for the presidential cam- paign have been laid out. Hanoi has been forced to seek administrative and technical manpower among its heretofore distrusted middle class. NEW COMMUNIST MILITARY PRESSURE IN LAOS The most serious attacks have occurred in southern Laos against government bases supporting increased intelligence and harassment operations into the vital infiltration corridor. PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGES IN BURMA Popular enthusiasm over the government's stand against Peking, even though subsiding somewhat, gives No Win a face-saving opportunity to make additional changes in the regime's doctrinaire and generally unsuccess- ful socialist economic policies. SINO-CAMBODIAN RELATIONS UNDER STRAIN Relations between China and Cambodia appear to be go- ing through a particularly difficult period, although both countries are probably anxious to avoid an open dispute. PEKING IN CONFLICT WITH REGIONAL COMMANDERS Maoist leaders are engaged in a major effort to bring recalcitrant military commanders into line. The con- flict is far from resolved, and violent incidents con- tinue to erupt throughout the country. SECRET Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79- 0927A005900070001-2 Ask 1b Approved"For Release 200$I@/1j4 + lA-RDP79-0092 A005900070001-2 Europe SOVIET MARSHAL STRESSES ROLE OF CONVENTIONAL GROUND FORCES A Red Star article, probably politically inspired, by the new Warsaw Pact chief, Marshal Yakubovsky, is the most explicit Soviet statement to date on the import- ance of ground forces in the USSR's defense planning. SOVIETS AGAIN PROMOTING WORLD COMMUNIST PARTY CONFERENCE They want to keep the idea alive but realize that such a meeting cannot be arranged anytime soon. POLITICAL TROUBLES IN POLISH MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT There are signs that opposition to the regime's pro- Arab policies reached upper military echelons and led to the dismissal of at least three high-level officers. SECRET Page ii WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Re'se 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A0'00070001-2 Middle East - Africa THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 19 THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION Arab states are holding a foreign ministers' confer- ence this week in an attempt to salvage what they can from their humiliating defeat by Israel. They--espe- cially the radical states--will also try to set the stage for a summit conference. In Israeli-annexed Jerusalem, Arab discontent is running high and an explosive situation is developing. Soviet military aid to the Arabs is slowing down, and Soviet naval activity offshore continues. Meanwhile, Britain is planning to sound out UN members about a Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Suez Canal. FEDERAL FORCES INCREASE PRESSURES IN NIGERIAN WAR Federal troops have recaptured Nsukka in Biafra's northwest and are beginning to expand their foothold on the southern coast. TANZANIAN PRESIDENT TIGHTENS CONTROL The purge of pro-Communist radicals may bring a slight lull in the regime's steady leftward drift, but will not significantly improve relations with the West. Western Hemisphere THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 27 CUBA IMPROVES ITS DEFENSIVE MILITARY CAPABILITY Recent Soviet military shipments to Cuba, while in- tended primarily for materiel maintenance and replace- ment, have improved the defensive capability of the naval, air, and air defense forces. SECRET Page iii WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 SECRET Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved For Release 200 `$ diA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 BOLIVIAN GUERRILLA ACTIVITY Recurrent guerrilla successes against poorly trained and equipped army units continue to point up the government's inability to cope with a serious in- surgency problem. The Bolivian Army's inept perform- ance is beginning to worry neighboring governments. PERU'S UNRESOLVED CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS Peru's most serious constitutional crisis in recent years remains unresolved, with the President and Con- gress both seeking strong bargaining positions. INVASION JITTERS HIT HAITI President Duvalier established a nationwide curfew on 29 July following reports of an imminent invasion of the north. SECRE+I' Page iv WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Ree 2007/03fbP79-00927A00i00070001-2 FAR EAST Maoist leaders are engaged in a major effort to bring China's recalcitrant military commanders into line. A Red Flag editorial admitted that the Wuhan commander's open defiance of Peking last week was "by no means an isolated phenom- enon." Although attacks on the Wuhan leader are continuing, there are indications that the Maoists have been obliged to make concessions. Their failure to deal cleanly with the Wuhan authorities may reflect pressure from other key military leaders. In an apparent effort to prevent further open defiance, Maoist lead- ers have been conferring with regional mili- tary officials in Peking. The South Vietnamese presidential campaign opened officially on 3 August amidst signs of friction between the supporters of Thieu and Ky. Partisans in each camp have accused the other of undermining their joint campaign com- mittee. The long-standing rivalry between the two men has been exacerbated by Thieu's sus- picion that Ky is trying to project himself as the real leader of the ticket. These frictions, however, have not reached the point of jeopardiz- ing the ticket's prospects for victory on 3 Sep- tember. Communist forces in Laos are increasing pressure against government positions. The most serious attacks have occurred in southern Laos against government bases supporting recently stepped-up intelligence and harassment opera- tions into the vital panhandle infiltration corridor. This upsurge in Communist activity probably is also aimed at offsetting gains by government forces in the last six months. 25X1 SECRET Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved or Release M /M/A4f' CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 VIETNAM Military activity continues at a slack pace in most of South Vietnam, although several sig- nificant engagements occurred during the past week. US Marines of Operation KING- FISHER suffered more than 200 casualties when attacked several miles north of Con Thien while returning from a sweep into the southern half of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). This sweep had been the first major allied penetra- tion of the DMZ since last May, and its purpose was to locate and destroy enemy artillery, mor- tar, and rocket positions which have shelled allied field posi- tions in northern Quang Tri Prov- ince almost continuously. Page 2 Throughout South Vietnam's III Corps, the activities of enemy forces reflected implementation of their rainy season offensive plans. These plans include selec- lated areas, interdiction of vital supply routes, and attacks on friendly outposts and base areas all of which showed an increase last week. Well-planned mortar and 122-mm. rocket attacks were directed at three US and South Vietnamese Army positions north and east of Saigon last weekend. The attacking force probably con- sisted of subordinate units of th Viet Cong 9th Light Infantry Di- vision, elements of which have previously participated in simi- lar rocket attacks in the same general area. To the south, the Communists are suffering heavy casualties as the result of allied operation in the Mekong Delta. More than 225 enemy soldiers were killed during a series of battles early this week near My Tho, in south- ern Dinh Tuong Province. More than 7,500 US and South Vietnamese troops in a combined SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 SECRET Approved For Rel*e 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A00070001-2 NOR ti-I" 1 VIETNAak ,p,,, ho = route 4 N H:~A) SECRET Cfa Trang IM RANH Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79- 0927A005900070001-2 CORPS Approved For ReleaseS,2~07Aa14 : CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 operation nicknamed CORONADO II, are scouring the area along Na- tional Route 4 in search of sev- eral Viet Cong main force bat- talions--one of which, the 263rd, was identified in the combat this week. These enemy units have re- cently intensified their harass- ment of traffic on Route 4, the vital ground link between the delta and Saigon. During a ten- day period in late July, there were over 52 Viet Cong mining incidents and ambushes along a 25-mile segment of this road. This recently intensified enemy activity in the eastern portion of Dinh Tuong Province may be a diversionary action to cover the movement of supplies and re- inforcing personnel into a large Viet Cong base area suspected to be in the western part of the province. Saigon Elections The presidential campaign of- ficially began on 3 August and will continue, under the super- vision of the newly formed Cen- tral Election Campaign Committee, until the day before the election on 3 September. The committee, composed of two representatives of each ticket, outlined the ma- jor features of the campaign in late July. These include arrange- ments for 24 joint public appear- ances by the candidates through- out the country and in Saigon be- tween 6 August and 1 September. There will also be two joint press conferences and three television appearances, during which each Page 4 candidate may speak for five minutes. A 15-minute radio talk during the first week of the cam- paign is also scheduled for each candidate. This schedule is not com- pulsory and the candidates are free, to a certain extent, to make their own arrangements. They may, for instance, hold in- dependent press conferences in private homes and restaurants, but not in public buildings or government offices. They are also free to talk to individual journalists at any time. Little is known of the spe- cific campaign plans of the two major civilian candidates--Tran Van Huong and Phan Khac Suu-- but both probably have the trap- pings of a campaign organization down to province level at least in the delta and around Saigon. According to press reports, both intend to do most of their per- sonal campaigning from Saigon and will send representatives on the government-arranged cam- paign tour. As for Chief of State Thieu and Premier Ky, there are grow- ing indications of friction and poor working relations within their campaign organization, al- though both appear to be gaining support as individuals, if not a a team. SECRET 4 Aug 67 pprove or eTease 2OQT103T14 CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved For Reese 2007/03/14I %Ci, .kdP79-00927A0 00070001-2 Although the joint campaign group may not be working well as a team, supporters of either Thieu and Ky individually appear to be having some success in lin- ing up support for their own man--a development which may serve to improve the joint ticket's chances for victory. Hanoi Soliciting "Bourgeoisie" Hanoi has found it necessary to call upon the country's mis- Page 5 trusted middle class for adminis- trative and technical manpower, according to a 9 July radiobroad- cast. The North Vietnamese Govern- ment recently revised its employ- ment policy for "bourgeois" in- dividuals in an effort to assure them jobs commensurate with their capacities and training, and to guarantee them pay scales and other incentives comparable to those received by "workers" in state enterprises. In the past Hanoi has discriminated against individuals who had worked in managerial and technically skilled positions under the French, pre- ferring to employ less experienced but more politically reliable young Communists trained in the more advanced bloc countries. Although there are few indi- cations that the war has imposed any general manpower shortage on Hanoi, the new incentives offered the "bourgeois" suggest that there is a shortage of certain skilled workers in critical areas. This suggestion is reinforced by Hanoi's decision to step up its foreign training program. Beginning in 1967, the USSR and East European countries have agreements with than triple the namese students study. SECRET signed Hanoi long-term which more 25X1 number going of Viet- abroad for 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For ReleasiNMW[ 4 : CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 NEW COMMUNIST MILITARY PRESSURE IN LAOS The Communists are increasing pressure against widely separated Laotian Government positions. The most serious attacks have occurred in southern Laos against govern- ment bases supporting increased intelligence and harassment opera- tions into the vital infiltration corridor. North Vietnamese troops in estimated battalion strength destroyed a Royal Laotian Army (FAR) command post at Thateng on a libel Mikdahan !son as a result of the improved I performance of government forces and the increased effectiveness = of tactical air support.! SECRET Page 6 27 July and inflicted heavy casu- alties on the defenders before withdrawing, The FAR's tactical position at Thateng was further weakened by the loss of a key heavy weapons position a few miles northeast on 28 July. These attacks are the most intense the enemy has made in the Bolovens Plateau area since friendly troops were driven out Aof Ban Phone on 19 July. They emmrotio Li- pay presage a concerted effort to push government forces from The government has moved reinforcements into Thateng and another key position at Lao Ngam, but its defensive capability has been hampered in recent weeks by poor weather which has limited tactical air support. The enemy, moreover, has increased pressure against government positions farther south near Attopeu, in what may be an effort to draw off government reinforcements from other contested areas. The upsurge in Communist :activity during the current ;wet season may be an attempt to Phona`redress tactical setbacks suf- 4 Aug 67 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved For RelbAe 2007/03/143 ]C(A&4]DI 79-00927A0 00070001-2 PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGES IN BURMA Further modifications of the "Burmese Way to Socialism" could occur despite the ruling Revolu- tionary Council's recent reaffir- mation of basic economic policies following an intensive review of the economy. The Burmese Government has been retreating, albeit cautiously and quietly, over the past several months from its drive toward state socialism. A number of commodi- ties were restored to private wholesale and retail trade last September and several others have been decontrolled since then. The most significant step was taken on 23 June, when the government partially decontrolled the rice trade. The failure of the state monopoly in rice trade to procure adequate supplies had resulted in an acute internal rice shortage and a further decline in rice exports, which account for an estimated 70 percent of Burma's foreign exchange earnings. The government may go even further if, as expected, the 23 June de- cision encourages farmers to market the stocks they have ac- cumulated because of the govern- ment's unrealistically low price. Burma's strained relations with Peking following the anti- Chinese disorders in Rangoon in late June have not only provided the Burmese Government with a face-saving opportunity to effect further economic changes but have brought the nation's economic plight into sharper focus. The opportunity derives principally from a wave of unprecedented popular approbation ensuing from Peking's diatribes against the "fascist" Ne Win regime, although time may be running out since much of the enthusiasm generated in the early stages of the dis- pute probably is now waning. For its part, Peking is showing no disposition to relax its propaganda offensive. The Chinese have recently increased their broadcasts to Burma and now are emphasizing Burma's economic difficulties. These broadcasts could aggravate an already serious dissidence problem among Communist and tribal minority groups, es- pecially if Burma's downward economic spiral is not reversed. F7 I SECRET Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved `For Release fffl& I: CIA-RDP79-009 7A005900070001-2 SINO-CAMBODIAN RELATIONS UNDER STRAIN Relations between Cambodia and Communist China appear to be going through a particularly dif- ficult period, although both 25X1 countries are probably anxious to avoid an open dispute. The Yugoslav ambassador in Phnom Penh told a US official that anti-Chinese sentiment there is reaching serious proportions and could erupt in violent attacks against the Chinese community. He claimed that "patriotic" Cam- bodians are increasingly disturbed over Chinese domination of the economy and particularly the role the Chinese are playing in smug- gling to South Vietnam. He stated that the situation was aggravated by the Chinese Communist Embassy's "heavy-handed" interference in the local Chinese school system, which he claims has included organization of Red Guard units. Although these statements may be somewhat overdrawn, there has been an upsurge in leftist activity in Cambodia in recent months. Sihanouk has reacted by declaring that "Red Guard - type" activity will not be per- mitted in Cambodia, and by dis- couraging, apparently with some success, the display of Maoist badges and literature. At the same time, Sihanouk has made it clear he does not want the crackdown on the Cam- bodian left to result in a breach with Communist China. He has taken pains in his public remarks to absolve Peking of responsibil- ity for the activities of over- zealous leftists. He reacted mildly to the sacking of the of- fices of an anti-Chinese news- paper. He also refrained from public comment on the offensive behavior of a Chinese military aid group which insisted the Cambodian pilots could not fly properly because they had been trained by "imperialists." The Chinese, for their part, appear equally reluctant to worsen relations. Their reaction to Sihanouk's campaign against the left, which has included the deportation of the two leading pro-Peking businessmen, has been mild. The Peking regime's public response to Cambodian press crit- icism of its propaganda activities has been couched in defensive and generally noninflammatory lan- guage. Finally, Peking has in- vited the Cambodian foreign min- ister to visit China, probably to try to work out some of these problems. SECRET Page 8 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For F ase 2007/03/SC P79-00927AVt900070001-2 PEKING IN CONFLICT WITH REGIONAL COMMANDERS Maoist leaders are engaged in a major effort to bring China's recalcitrant military commanders into line. The conflict is far from resolved, and violent inci- dents continue to erupt throughout the country. Peking broadcast revealed that the leaders of the "million-man army"--an anti-Maoist organization responsive to Wuhan Military Re- gion command--would also "be given a chance to redeem them- selves." Growing frictions between Maoists and military leaders culminated in an open act of de- fiance on 20 and 21 July when Chen Tsai-tao, commander of the Wuhan Military Region, arrested two important officials from Peking. After the two were re- leased on 22 July, Peking mounted frenetic demonstrations in the capital and several regional cities against the commander for several days, and announced the beginning of a drive to purge military leaders. On 30 July, however, a Red Flag editorial said that pro-Mao revolutionaries" should exercise extreme caution in dealing with errant military leaders, suggest- ing that the Maoists were giving ground. The editorial asserted that in some localities the con- flict between military and "revo- lutionary" forces is "only a mis- understanding." In such areas, it said, pro-Mao forces should be lenient. Peking took another step backward on 1 August, when a Maoist leaders are probably under strong pressure from mili- tary leaders to moderate their policies. For the past week Maoist leaders have been confer- ring with representatives from regional military commands in an extraordinary session in Peking. Three regional military officials appeared at a Peking rally on 25 July. Nine of them, repre- senting six of the ten major com- mands, showed up on 31 July for the rally celebrating the 40th anniversary of the founding of the army. This is the only time in recent years that so many out-of- town military men have gathered in the capital at one time. They normally celebrate even major anniversaries in their own pro- vincial capitals. The event was not attended by either Mao Tse-tung or Defense Minister Lin Piao. The signifi- cance of their absence is still unclear. The keynote speech, delivered by the acting chief of SECRET Page 9 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Aft SECRET Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 TSINGHAI _ 7 H I Peek n K I A N C `-. - SHENS?F-., WUHAN MILITARY RE61 .rte ANA F VUNNAIN vv 4011 K,icmrtPr., I!QRTH %%,_ VIETkA 1 ~ SECRET 1 11AINAN EASTk CHINA SEA Approved For Rel a 2007/03/14 S: U- UP79-00927A0i '0070001-2 staff, praised both men in the usual effusive terms. on a broad scale, and little ap- parent action has been taken to prevent them. One major goal of the mili- tary leaders probably is the restoration of order. They may have pressed Mao and Lin for a clear mandate to the military to impose order and bring to an end those Red Guard activities which have produced near anarchy. This, however, would mean abandoning the main thrust of the Cultural Revolution to which both men are committed. There is no evidence as yet that Maoists have given up on this issue. On the contrary, violent clashes and transport disruptions are still occurring The interruption of rail traffic may be causing signifi- cant delays in the distribution of foods and raw materials to urban areas. There is no direct evidence to indicate extensive backlogs of materials, however. The effect on Soviet aid shipments for North Vietnam is 25X1 uncertain. These shipments probably receive special atten- tion in transiting China. SECRET Page 11 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved For Release 28K0,4-4TCIA-RDP79-0t927AO05900070001-2 SECRET Page 12 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Relydse 2007/03IfAECRb079-00927A05900070001-2 EUROPE All but the most urgent matters will be held in abeyance for the next few weeks as Europe's leaders close up shop for their traditional August vacations. All three of the Soviet Union's top leaders have left Moscow. Moscow, however, remains wrapped up in the Arab- Israeli problem. The Soviets are also looking at the turmoil in China and this week made a provocative plea to the Chinese Army not to let Mao exploit it. Pravda took an indirect shot at Castro's Latin American "sol- idarity" meeting by reprinting an article by a Chilean Communist which takes issue with Cuba's philosophy of revolutionary violence. President de Gaulle, after an unusually long cabinet meeting, has retired unrepenting to his country place following his extraordinary Canadian trip. He will be back in Paris on 10 August, how- ever, for a television appearance to promote forth- coming decrees to effect socioeconomic reforms. The decrees are expected to arouse considerable public and parliamentary opposition. The West Germans and Czechs have concluded pro- tracted negotiations on trade. An agreement will be signed shortly providing for expanded trade and an exchange of permanent trade missions which will have certain consular functions SECRET Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-90927A005900070001-2 25X6 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Rise 2007/03/14-F&AU4b'P79-00927A(Q000070001-2 SOVIET MARSHAL STRESSES ROLE OF CONVENTIONAL GROUND FORCES A top member of the USSR's high command has published the most explicit statement to date on the importance of ground forces in Soviet defense planning. The author was Marshal Ivan Yakubovsky, recently appointed commander in chief of the Warsaw Pact forces. Writing in the 21 July issue of Red Star, Yaku- bovsky was careful to acknowledge the great impact of nuclear weap- ons but noted a wide range of circumstances calling for ground forces employing only the "class- ical" means of warfare. He implied that the USSR is making substan- tial efforts to improve its capacity to conduct nonnuclear operations. The Soviet Army and Navy are large and reasonably well equipped for conventional warfare. The recently developed huge AN-22 transport aircraft and Alligator- class landing ships will enhance the mobility of Soviet forces. Several new aircraft displayed in the recent Moscow air show are designed to improve air support to ground troops. The form and timing of Yakubovsky's article suggest it was inspired by the desire of the new high command to influence policy matters, particularly defense allocations. Preliminary decisions regarding the 1968 plan probably are being taken now. To underscore the political as well as economic implications of the policy he was propounding, Yakubovsky cited the recent cen- tral committee theses stressing the importance of strengthening defenses. SECRET 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A005900070001-2 Approved ,For Release 2093 t*PIA-RDP79-00 !"A005900070001-2 SOVIETS AGAIN PROMOTING WORLD COMMUNIST PARTY CONFERENCE The Soviet-sponsored idea of a conference of the world's Com- munist parties is in the air again. A Pravda editorial on 23 July, echoing an earlier statement by the East German party, said that bilateral and multilateral meet- ings of Communist parties are paving the way for a new inter- national conference. Subsequent pronouncements have put the Bul- garian, Hungarian, Danish, Brazil- ian, and Uruguayan parties on record as advocates of such a conference, though with differing degrees of enthusiasm. The obstacles to a world Com- munist meeting are such that the Soviets are unlikely to try to arrange it before their 50th anni- versary celebrations in November. The Pravda editorial took note of these obstacles, mentioning "nationalist moods" and "internal difficulties" in the Communist movement. For one thing, Moscow is aware that Tito's participation in multilateral consultations on the Middle East does not mean that he has abandoned Yugoslavia's inde- pendence in the Communist move- ment. A Soviet diplomat in Bel- grade recently conceded that the alliance with Belgrade over the Arab-Israeli crisis was only tem- porary. Moreover, Moscow will have noted the Rumanian's silence about Pravda's suggestion of a conference. T ey ignored the op- portunity for comment provided by their well-publicized parliamen- tary session last week in which foreign policy discussions pre- dominated. The Soviets thus seem to be no closer to achieving a demon- stration of unity on the issue than they were in April, when several parties--notably Yugo- slavia's and Rumania's--boycotted the Karlovy Vary conference of European Communists. Nevertheless, the Soviets hope to keep the sub- ject alive and look upon lesser bilateral or multilateral meet- ings--such as Karlovy Vary and the get-togethers on the Middle East-- as serving that purpose. There are tenuous indications that some such gathering may be in the offing. If any such meeting were held before November, it would be a limited one intended to demonstrate to foot-draggers the momentum and inevitability of the move toward a full-scale international con- ference. SECRET Page 16 WEEKLY SUMMARY pp ovedd I-or'}e - 4 Aug 67 Approved For Rel1"e 2007/03/4`& 79-00927A0q D0070001-2 POLITICAL TROUBLES IN POLISH MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT There are signs that opposi- tion to the Polish regime's pro- Arab policy reached upper mili- tary echelons and that, for a while after the Mid-East war, the regime was in doubt about the political reliability of some segments of the armed forces' leadership. In a widely publicized speech on 21 July, Defense Minister Spy- chalski-?-a close friend of party boss Gomulka--implied that the political attitudes of the mili- tary failed to pass the "acute test" of the Mid-East war and that this was reflected in Polish military performance during the period of crisis. Spychalski also seemed to indicate that some of- ficers, fearing involvement in the war because of Warsaw's support of Moscow's policy, questioned the value of the alliance with the USSR, as well as the worth of Soviet weapons, equipment, and training. The defense minister's stress on ideological attitudes as basic to combat readiness suggests that the military es- tablishment will be brought more closely under party con- trol in an effort to ensure its reliability in any future crisis. Spychalski's address is virtual confirmation of reports that the air defense commander and two of his deputies have been purged for refusing to prepare and circulate within the air force an evaluation of the Arab-Israeli conflict based on false and tendentious regime propaganda positions. Since none of these officers is Jewish, their purge was not related to Gomulka's anti-Semitic policy statement of 19 June. Soviet Marshal Yakubovsky-- on his first official trip since his appointment as Warsaw Pact commander--made a protocol visit to Warsaw on 24 July, pos- sibly reflecting uneasiness on the part of Soviet leaders over the situation in the Polish armed services. Despite rumors in Warsaw that a wider cleansing--involv- ing foreign service and foreign trade personnel--is being pre- pared, it is not likely that military purges will be exten- sive. There are good domestic reasons for avoiding a sweeping change, mainly that it would en- courage factionalism and pos- sibly threaten the political balance Gomulka has constructed between dogmatic and relatively liberal elements in I the regime. SECRET Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q 0927A005900070001-2 Approved- Release 20&7WBtEWIA-RDP79-0M927AO05900070001-2 SECRET Page 18 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Reise 2007/0 4pgB DP79-00927A0Q&900070001-2 MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA The Arab foreign ministers are conferring this week in an attempt to establish some unity between the radical and moderate regimes, but there is little prospect for any real achievement. They will also try to set the stage for a later summit conference--a forum which the radicals es- pecially are seeking. Meanwhile, increasing Arab discontent in Israeli-annexed Jerusalem is creat- ing an explosive situation there. Elsewhere in the Middle East, both Jordan and Iraq have had cabinet reshuffles and some re- alignment seems to be in progress in Syria. None of these regimes is expected to make any major policy changes, however. The Congress Party in India suffered another setback on 29 July when the Mishra government fell in Madhya Pradesh. It was the third Congress state regime to collapse since March, and Congress now controls only seven of the 17 states in India. Events are moving slowly in Africa's current, top trouble spots--Congo and Nigeria. The mer- cenaries in northeastern Congo have left their Punia stronghold and are on their way to Bukavu. The Belgian cabinet, meanwhile, decided on 28 July that its presence in the Congo and the amount of aid granted will depend on what guarantees of safety the Mobutu government can provide Belgian citizens there. In any event, some cutback in aid is inevitable. in Nigeria, federal troops consolidated their successful seaborne invasion of Biafra's oil terminal and now control the secessionists' main outlet to the sea. Other moves against Biafra's southwestern area are probably under way, and Nsukka in the northwest has again fallen SECRET Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A005900070001-2 Approved For Release ~ /M CIA-RDP79-0 AO05900070001-2 THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION The Arab foreign ministers' conference opened in Khartoum on 1 August with a call for unity among Arab regimes. The agenda is apparently still under consideration in closed sessions. Proposed points for discussion probably include calling for Israeli withdrawal from Arab territories, continu- ing the oil embargo, and the elimination of foreign military bases in Arab countries. Ahmad Shuqayri, head of the Palestine Liberation organization, told the press that the foreign ministers would also discuss such measures as severance of diplomatic relations with the US and UK and total boycott of trade. Such extreme measures would prob- ably touch off bitter debate be- tween radical and moderate Arab states, and the outcome is un- certain. Jerusalem and the West Bank Arab resistance to the Is- raeli occupation of Jerusalem and Jordan's West Bank is rapidly in- creasing to the point where seri- ous incidents are likely. Apart from the mere fact of alien occu- pation, the opposition reflects the Arabs' resentment of inept and sometimes calculated Israeli moves against their economic and religious interests. Israeli interference in the religious rights of the Arab Christians and Muslims, especially the latter, is probably the touch- iest issue. The application of Israeli religious laws to the Old City and especially, the placing of Christian and Muslim religious matters under the supervision of the Israeli Ministry of Religious Affairs headed by a rabbi has been regarded by the Arabs as adding insult to injury. On 2 August the Israelis, in a probably futile attempt to assuage Arab indigna- tion, placed the supervision of Muslim religious activities under Defense Minister Dayan. Forced closure of all business establishments one day a week is bitterly resented. Some Israeli tourists have offended Muslim and Christian sensibilities by their dress and actions in holy places. Latin ecclesiastical authorities have responded by closing their shrines, including the Holy Sepul- chre, when not being used for re- ligious services. Israeli-imposed restrictions on both Muslim and Christian religious courts have aroused religious leaders. Cen- sorship of Muslim sermons, another sore point, has ceased. A number of Old City judges and lawyers have signed a protest petition and have refused to act SECRET Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Reuse 2007/03/ `CtA=R679-00927AOQM 00070001-2 on cases. Arab doctors are considering refusing to partici- pate in the Israeli health insur- ance scheme. Other professions have joined the doctors' and law- yers' protests. Teachers in Na- blus have threatened to strike if the school texts are replaced by Israeli ones, and many merchants have closed their stores. The majority of the unemployed will not register at the Israeli labor exchange. The Old City council has re- fused to participate in an Is- raeli-amalgamated city-wide coun- cil protesting that this would be recognition of the annexation of the Old City by Israel, which they have denounced. Half a dozen anti-Israel leaflets have been distributed warning Arab residents against cooperating with the Is- raeli authorities. One leaflet originated with the Israeli Com- munist Party. A boycott of Is- raelis is reportedly planned by the Old City Chamber of Commerce and Muslim leaders as part of a general civil disobedience cam- paign aimed at heading off meas- ures designed to detach Jerusalem from the West Bank. On 30 July the Israeli cabi- net spent considerable time dis- cussing the situation in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israeli of- ficials have now indicated that the "policy of moderation" toward the Arab population has not worked and that much sterner action is planned for the future. An in- dication of this new policy was the 31 July arrest and exile to Israeli towns of four prominent West Bank political leaders, in- cluding the former governor of the Jerusalem district. Soviet Political Activity Soviet efforts to find a so- lution to Middle East problems have aroused resentment and anxi- ety among some of the Arabs. So- viet Foreign Minister Gromyko in turn has given vent to his own frustrations at the UN. His re- marks have almost certainly of- fended the sensitive Arabs, who are becoming more distrustful of Soviet intentions. At home the Soviets are try- ing to put the best possible face on their actions in the Middle East. Various Soviet news articles have discussed the possibilities of a future role for the Communist parties in the Middle East as long as "objective conditions pertain for the development of the social- ist trend." A recent Pravda arti- cle emphasized that the release of political prisoners in Egypt would enable the "cooperation of all genuinely progressive forces... which undoubtedly has broadened the revolution's social base," im- SECRET Page 21 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-90927A005900070001-2 Approved Foy' Release 2g~'(6-L4TCIA-RDP79-0A005900070001-2 implying that the Soviet Govern- ment expects a more important role for Egyptian Communists. In an earlier article, Pravda attributed Egyptian military failures to the bourgeois nonrevolutionary officer corps, with the implication that the fault did not lie with the chief beneficiary of Soviet aid, President Nasir himself. Soviet Military Aid Three additional Soviet arms carriers docked at Middle East ports in the past week. With their arrival, about 42,000 tons of military equipment have now been delivered by 18 ships since 5 June--when hostilities began. It would require some 80 addi- tional voyages, however, to get Arab military arms inventories near prewar levels. The Egyptian military dele- gation left Moscow on 29 July. An agreement on Soviet equipment to be provided as part of the resupply effort was probably con- cluded. Iraq's defense minister, who has been in Moscow since 21 July, is also negotiating for additional military equipment. Soviet Naval Activity Soviet submarine and surface ship deployments in the Mediter- ranean remain at a high level. Several ships at sea since early June probably have been replaced by other units including two land- ing ships and four submarines. Three SAM-equipped combatants, a destroyer, and three landing ships are probably continuing to lend support to Nasir by remaining in or near the ports of Alexandria and Port Said. United Nations Britain, concerned about the effects of a prolonged closure of the Suez Canal, is planning to consult the USSR and the Middle East countries on a Security Coun- cil resolution aimed at reopening it. London has in mind a resolu- tion much like that agreed upon privately between the US and the USSR toward the end of the special General Assembly session. This resolution provided for withdrawal of troops and an end of belliger- ency. The UK, however, would strengthen the provisions on free- dom of passage. The UK also in- tends to propose to Secretary Gen- eral Thant that he pay a personal visit to the Middle East, followed by a possible appointment of a special representative to the area. SECRET Page 22 WEEKLY SUMMARY pprovve ooz a ease 4 Aug 67 Approved For Reldvilb 2007/03/1AR~-11IP79-00927A00'00070001-2 FEDERAL FORCES INCREASE PRESSURES IN NIGERIAN WAR The Nigerian federal gov- ernment continues to press its month-old military campaign against the seceded former East- ern region, Biafra. Troops of the landing force that seized Bonny last week are reportedly moving cautiously Western upriver toward Port Harcourt accompanied by two naval patrol boats. The first federal goal is likely to be the refinery near Port Harcourt. On the northern front, federal forces have recaptured Nort~ter j~ Makurdi EAST-CENTRAL Scene of Nigerian Civil War BENUE PLATEAU TH-EASTERN e? Calabar _NGERIA Eastern Region (BIAFRA) Boundary of former region New state boundary decreed by Gowan SECRET Benin City Mid-Western MID-WESTERN WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug: 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927AO05900070001-2 Approver Release Zq$!X11I41 : CIA-RDP79- 7A005900070001-2 Nsukka, although the situation there appears to remain fluid. Biafran Governor Ojukwu still appears confident of ulti- 25X1 mate victory, and there does not seem to be any significant decline 25X1 in morale. Additional problems may arise for Biafra after the fed- eral government gets delivery of 25X1 six jet trainers it purchased from Czechoslovakia. Two of these transited Morocco last weekend on their way to Lagos. Biafra, on the other hand, has received no heavy military Page 24 equipment and probably is short of foreign exchange needed to purchase such equipment. The federal seizure of Bonny has apparently caused the oil companies--especially Shell-BP and SAFRAP, which have producing wells in the East--to have second thoughts about royalty payments to Ojukwu. In a further attempt to influence Shell-BP, Ojukwu is holding the company's manager hostage in Enugu and has asked the company to suspend all opera- tions. He said Biafran security forces would guard the instal-, lations for safekeeping. Shell,-BP does not appear to be disturbed by Ojukwu's action, however, and is now maintaining that its original agreement with Lagos called for royalty payments only once a year. I SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 Approved For Re4Wse 2007/030W_bP79-00927AOiii+900070001-2 TANZANIAN PRESIDENT TIGHTENS CONTROL President Nyerere has taken a still firmer grip on the Tanzanian Government in the face of increasing resistance to his socialist policy. The purge of such pro-Communist rad icals as Oscar Kambona, minister of regional administration and sec- retary general of the country's only party, may bring a slight lull in the regime's steady leftward drift, but will not significantly improve relations with the West. Kambona's flight to London last week removed Nyerere's most likely challenger and settled a long power struggle between the Kambona fac- tion and those party leaders allied with Vice President Kawawa. Kawawa's colleagues resented the ambitious Kambona, who was studying in England while they were building the party prior to independence, and have been maneuvering for years to oust him as secretary general. In June Kambona resigned from both his cabinet and party positions after Nyerere assumed personal jurisdic- tion over the country's 17 regional commissioners and left Kambona with no real authority. Kambona's position had stead- ily eroded since 1963 when he was minister of both external affairs and defense and second only to Nyerere in political power. He lost the defense portfolio after the army mutiny in 1964 and external affairs in 1965. Nyerere found Kambona to be an ineffective and undependable administrator of questionable loyalty, but had been reluctant to curb him openly. His latent suspicions about Kambona's Page 25 long-time Communist contacts may have been finally aroused by recent revelations about his foreign bank accounts and East German financial support. In the last two weeks, five of Kambona's followers have been arrested for subversive activity which included contacts with the army and efforts to form an opposi- tion party. During the past six months new resistance to Nyerere's socialist policies has come not only from con- servative businessmen but also from radical politicians who strongly object to his decree that they may not have outside income. This op- position is fragmented and lacks any common bonds of doctrine or friendship, but is likely to accel- erate Nyerere's authoritarian trend. The government shake-up in June removed several other radicals from the cabinet and left more able, con- servative administrators in charge. Nyerere has no intention of abandon- ing his socialist ideals but the changes appear designed to restore investor confidence and prevent the radicals from forcing too fast a socialist pace. Despite the apparent swing to- ward moderation, Nyerere's fixation with "imperialists" and his mili- tant support for southern Africa's nationalists would seem to preclude any significant improvement in Tanzania's relations with the West. The government press remains viru- lently anti-American and those leaders who favor closer relations with Communist China are now in firm control. SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927AO05900070001-2 Approved I-oi- Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-O A005900070001-2 SECRET SECRET Page 26 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved or e e - 4 Aug 67 Approved For Re a 2007/09i1&iKTRDP79-00927A0%W00070001-2 WESTERN HEMISPHERE The Latin American Solidarity Organization (LASO) meeting in Havana this week has given Fidel Castro a forum to call for the creation of "many Vietnams" in the Western Hemisphere. Speaking at the opening ceremonies on 31 July, Cuban President Dorticos lashed out at "Yankee imperialism" and stressed that armed struggle is the only way to achieve true liberation. Dorticos implied that this doctrine of revolutionary violence is primar- ily a reaction to "imperialism's repressive meas- ures" in Latin America, a line apparently accepted by the pro-Moscow Communists at the conference. Revolutionary slogans and anti-US tirades can be expected to continue for the balance of the con- ference, which probably will culminate in a fiery closing speech by Castro on 8 August. Venezuela's interest in pressing the organi- zation of American States to meet soon and take up its complaint against Cuba took a back seat last week because of the devastating earthquake that rocked Venezuela and Colombia on 29 July. The OAS is still trying to find an acceptable date for the meeting, with most governments now apparently favor- ing late September. In Peru, a dispute between the ruling and oppo- sition coalitions over the leadership of the Senate plunged the country into a serious constitutional crisis. President Belaunde, however, is quietly seeking a negotiated compromise and the military, while it is following the dispute with interest, is following a hands-off policy. Bolivia's hapless mil- itary forces reportedly suffered more casualties this week in new encounters with the guerrillas and, as the week closed, Brazil faced the possibility of new student disorders protesting the govern- ment's determination to keep an illegal extremist- led national student organization from meeting in Sao Paulo. F7 I SECRET Page 27 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A005900070001-2 Approved Release 209V3/-fIA-RDP79-00927A005900070001-2 CUBA IMPROVES ITS DEFENSIVE MILITARY CAPABILITY The defensive capability of the Cuban armed forces has been improved by new equipment deliv- ered by the USSR over the past 11 months. Since last September, Cuba has received 19 major military aid shipments, and at least one more is en route. Although these de- liveries appear intended primarily to replace materiel worn out or expended in training, some of the equipment is more modern and sophisticated than that being replaced. For example, the Cubans have received at least 23 MIG-21FL jet fighters, the Soviets' standard export model with a limited all- weather capability. These are replacements for an estimated 30 to 40 earlier model MIGs. The newer SA-3 surface-to-air missile system, designed primarily for protection against low-flying aircraft, may be introduced shortly. The SA-3 would comple- ment the SA-2 system which has been established throughout Cuba since 1962. While no SA-3 mis- siles or related equipment have yet been seen in Cuba, aerial 25X1 photography showed what appeared to be an A- site under construction in a Havana suburb, less than three miles from air defense headquarters. If the system is indeed to be deployed in Cuba, it will be the first time outside the USSR. The Cuban Navy's force of 12 Komar guided-missile patrol boats, Cuba's most potent weapons afloat, has been increased to 18. In addition, four SO-1-class submarine chasers have arrived in the last six months, bringing the total of this class to ten. These acquisitions considerably enhance the navy's ability to defend coastal waters and prevent illegal emigration. The Cuban ground forces ap- parently have received only one new type of equipment, the BMD-20. This 200-mm., truck-mounted rocket launcher was first displayed in the Soviet Union in 1954. An es- timated 25 to 30 have arrived in Cuba since December. The Castro regime is contin- uing extensive construction of underground shelters for personnel and equipment 5X11 S EC: R E"I' Page 28 WEEKLY SUMMARY pproved ore ease - 4 Aug 67 Approved For Relate 2007/03/14~bfA-Ikb~79-00927A000d0070001-2 BOLIVIAN GUERRILLA ACTIVITY Recurrent guerrilla suc- cesses against poorly trained and equipped Bolivian Army units again point up the army's con- tinuing inability to cope with an insurgency that has become in- creasingly troublesome since it broke out last March. Encounters with small guer- rilla groups have been more fre- quent since 19 July, the end of a brief lull in activity. An BOLIVIA r ~1 SALT FLAT N.A. RAILROAD o NATIONAL CAPITAL ... DEPA RTAMENTO BOUNDARY J1E0 MILES O 130 KILOMETERS C o-iCY RLJ Ate; army patrol, in a sweep operation in the guerrilla zone around Naca- huasu, engaged a small band of insurgents on 21 and 23 July. No army casualties were reported, but the Bolivians claim that two guerrillas were captured and three killed. On 23 July at Yerba Buena, north of the guerrilla zone, an- other band reportedly stormed a small army garrison at a farm, seizing arms and food supplies. SECRET Page 29 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-90927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Release 200~1044'~IA-RDP79-7A005900070001-2 According to Bolivian press re- ports, the guerrillas met with little resistance and easily evaded army support units which arrived later on the scene. Moving southward, the band engaged army units in sporadic clashes from 27 to 31 July in the rugged Duran area--about 54 miles north of Nacahuasu. Gov- ernment forces are said to have suffered some dead and wounded without inflicting any confirmed guerrilla casualties. The army's recurrent demon- strations of its inability to cope with the guerrillas--who seem able to roam at will through the area--and increasing evidence that local garrisons lack aggres- siveness will further weaken the Barrientos government in the long run. The present situation has spurred contingency planning by the governments of neighbor- ing Paraguay and Argentina to take action if the situation de- teriorates. PERU'S UNRESOLVED CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS Peru's most serious consti- tutional crisis in recent years remains unresolved, with Presi- dent Belaunde and Congress both seeking strong bargaining posi- tions. On 28 July the opposition- controlled Senate, allegedly using fraudulent tactics, voided the election of the government's candidate as presiding officer of the Senate. The government senators, incensed at this tactic boycotted further meet- ings--thereby preventing any activity by either house of Con- gress. Each side now is accusing the other of violating the consti- tution. An opposition party spokes- man met with Belaunde on 29 July to discuss the impasse. Although no agreement was reached, both appeared eager for a compromise. Belaunde's relations with Congress, never warm, have been deteriorating steadily for months. Recent actions of Con- gress have challenged his govern- ment's handling of several im- portant issues. Belaunde is under consider- able pressure from hard-line elements within his own party to deal firmly with the opposi- tion parties. SECRET Page 30 WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927 Approved For Rel' a 2007/03/15111 d1-ti6179-00927A0QO0070001-2 INVASION JITTERS HIT HAITI Haitian President Duvalier established a nationwide curfew on 29 July following reports of an imminent invasion of the north. Duvalier's action was ini- tiated in response to "invasion" reports reaching him from his representatives in Washington and Miami. He acted characteristically in tightening security controls while investigating activities which had aroused his suspicions. The US ambassador reports that Port-au-Prince is calm even though rumors of an invasion have been heightened by the curfew. Anti-Duvalier exiles are consid- 25X1 ered to have little capability for mounting a serious invasion attempt at this time. Page 31 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 4 Aug 67 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927A005900070001-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927AO05900070001-2 Approg6f? feleatmP2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-00927A005 70001-2 Secret Approved For Release 2007/03/14: CIA-RDP79-Q0927AO05900070001-2