WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0
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June 19, 2006
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1
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September 27, 1968
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SUMMARY
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Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A0066001000ret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY ~,o j CO DS CF TER I'ITMEDIATELY AFTER JOB ?~ S-3 Secret 43' State Dept. review completed 27 September 1968 No. 0040/68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 :&rJ9-00927A006600100001-0 (Information as of noon EDT, 26 September 1968) Europe MOSCOW LOSING PATIENCE WITH CZECHOSLOVAK LEADERS Moscow's forebearance with the stubborn Czechoslovaks may be coming to an end, and the Soviets could be on the verge of a move against liberal Czechoslovak leaders. SOVIET PEOPLE QUESTION INTERVENTION IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA The Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia appears to have had a broad impact on the Soviet population. Reactions have varied, but the regime's inability to justify its policy in cogent and consistent terms has led many people to feel uncertain about their lead- ers' actions. BALKAN COMMUNIST REGIMES ADJUST TO NEW REALITIES The Rumanian and Yugoslav regimes, uneasy about So- viet plans for the Balkans, have moved to adjust their policies to meet the new realities of Moscow's enlarged presence in Eastern Europe. The Bulgarians, however, seem to have found new confidence in their own hard-line policies. SECRET Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 Approved For Releas 0 / 8 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 USSR SUSTAINS TENSIONS IN BONN AND BERLIN Soviet propaganda attacks are sustaining West tensions already heightened by the Czechoslova crisis. The tone seems more menacing in the w the Soviet invasion, but the content suggests rily an effort to justify that move. erman ke of brima- DECLINING BIRTH RATE AROUSES SOVIET CONCERN The falling birth rate of the 1960s is not lily to be reversed in the near future, and the regim may be forced to reconsider policies that encouraged the decline. Far East VIETNAM Communist attempts to mount offensive operations in several target areas were again largely frustt ated last week by allied spoiling actions. In the polit- ical war, both Saigon and the Communists are aking steps to strengthen their positions in the co ntry- side. PHILIPPINES MOVES TO EASE RENEWED TENSION OVER SA AH Philippine President Marcos, apparently alarm d by Malaysia's strong response to Philippine legi lation referring to Manila's sovereignty over Sabah, has sought to halt further escalation of the dispte. SECRET Page ii WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08SPLA pFj79-00927A006600100001-0 DISAGREEMENTS IN PEKING HAMPER FOREIGN MINISTRY Efforts to improve China's image abroad are proceed- ing despite continuing political turmoil and policy differences in Peking. Middle East -- Africa MOUNTING CASUALTIES MAY PROVOKE ISRAELI RETALIATION Border incidents resulting in many casualties con- tinue to plague the Israelis. Tel Aviv has shown un- usual restraint to date, but retaliatory strikes can- not be ruled out. TUNISIA SENTENCES STUDENT AGITATORS The Bourguiba regime has cracked down hard on dissi- dents among university students and faculty by meting out relatively long prison sentences to the ring- leaders of disorders that occurred last March. NIGERIAN FEDERAL TROOPS CLOSE IN Federal military forces are continuing to move on the Biafran capital of Umuahia, but are sustaining heavy casualties in strong Biafran counterattacks. There are indications that some Biafrans are begin- ning to think of surrendering, although Ojukwu shows no signs of giving up. RHODESIA LEAVES DOOR AJAR FOR NEGOTIATIONS Smith's constitutional proposals--passed despite the strong opposition of his party's right wing--are in- tended to keep open the possibility of a negotiated settlement with Britain. WIDESPREAD LABOR UNREST IN INDIA A series of disruptive local and national strikes have erupted in recent months, and little improvement in the situation seems likely in the near future. SECRET Page iii WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 SECRF 9' I Western Hemisphere THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE HONDURAN GENERAL STRIKE BROKEN The Honduran Government has successfully broke the general strike prompted by new taxes endorsed t the Central American summit meeting in July, but tle strike may slow approval of the tax mea-sure in other Central American nations. URUGUAY MOVES AGAINST AGITATORS President Pacheco has closed the schools, imposed restraints on the press, and expelled three members of the Soviet Embassy. VIOLENCE GROWS IN MEXICAN STUDENT CRISIS The hard positions on both sides, evident in he almost daily violence between students and police, have dimmed prospects for quieting the distur ances before the Olympics start on 12 October. POLITICAL TENSIONS RISING IN PERU Dissatisfaction over the government's recent ettle- ment with the US-owned International Petroleum Com- Pany is giving rise rumors of military plo ting I GUATEMALAN MILITARY GROWING RESTIVE There is no evidence of coup plotting thus fa a move in that direction is increasingly like , but Y. SECR1:'I" Page iv WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Se~ 68 Approved or Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-009 7AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : J 7j9-00927A006600100001-0 The unpleasant realities of the Soviet occupation of Czechoslovakia and of Moscow's enlarged presence in Eastern Europe became more evident this week to many Europeans, both East and West. The Soviets and their allies remained dissatisfied with the Prague regime as it continued to go its own way and failed to reimpose limits on Czechoslo- vak political behavior. Moscow, apparently close to losing its patience, seemed on the verge of using its military presence to oust top Czechoslovak liberals, impose a conservative regime, and repress any dissident opposition forces. In the Balkans, the Rumanians and the Yugoslavs remain uneasy about Soviet plans for the area while the Bulgarians seem to have gained a new sense of confidence with the return of Larder Soviet policies. Soviet Marshal Yakubovsky, commander in chief of the Warsaw Pact, was on tour this past week, consulting with defense ministers and other leaders in Sofia, East Berlin, and Warsaw. The purpose of his trip possibly is to make general soundings prior to another Moscow-Prague confrontation. West German and West Berlin nerves, already taut because of the Czechoslovak crisis, have been further tightened by what they consider to be menacing Soviet and East German propaganda, threatening to West Berlin and to West German access to the city. Chancellor Kiesinger seems certain to focus on this problem during his talks this weekend with President de Gaulle. By late this week, 37 Communist delegations had arrived in Budapest for the third preparatory committee meeting of the World Communist Con- ference, only two less delegations than attended the second conference in June. Reportedly scheduled to begin 30 September, the meeting will almost certainly decide if the World Conference-planned for November and appar- ently still being pushed by Moscow-should be postponed, as proposed by several West European parties. As Portuguese leader Salazar lingered in a coma, all reports indicated that President Thomaz has decided to name a former cabinet member, Professor Marcelo Caetano, as the prince minister's successor. This choice reassures those who want the authoritarian system to continue, but does not rule out some eventual liberalization of internal political and economic SECRET Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release ggOCIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 Moscow LOSING PATIENCE WITH CZECHOSLOVAK Moscow's forbearance with the stubborn Czechoslovaks may be coming to an end, and the So- viets could be on the verge of a move against liberal Czecho- slovak leaders. On 25 September, the Soviet Union implicitly charged Czecho- slovakia's leadership with act- ing in direct contradiction to the Moscow agreement of 26 Au- gust and with supporting coun- terrevolutionary elements in the country. TASS, the official Soviet news agency, issued a statement sharply critical of the Dubcek regime for failing to remove from control of the news media the "same people" who before and after the invasion have been attacking the Commu- nist Party, the Communist system, and the USSR and its allies. TASS implied that nothing was being done to control the anti- Communist "underground," which it claimed was perpetrating acts of terror and subversion, and was circulating illegal litera- ture. The statement charged that the "truth" about such antiso- cialist activities had not yet been told to the Czechoslovak people. Publication of the TASS broadside climaxed a rising crescendo of Soviet press cri- ticism, and coincided with the repositioning of Soviet troops and armored cars in downtown Prague. It also came a few hours after the East German party's main daily, Neues Deutschland, re: attacks on Czecl chief Dubcek, a]] was not really i a "Social Democ3 German sense." had for some dal charges of dupl: of Czechoslovak From their the Soviets have concern. The Di been daily tryii viets to their interference in while at the sai been proceeding courses unaccep Thus, while som as former forei have resigned, of their depart coupled with ne of pro-Soviet o Moreover, accede to Sovie Kuznetsov's urg the government. dent Svoboda iE threatened to r the entire lead insists on suct party presidium ommended the re those--even at no longer enjoy of the people. duals are old i Prague ha poned some eco in a manner cl put the onus o SEC RE' 1 Page 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY umed personal oslovak party leging that he Communist but at in the West The Polish press s been printing city on the part leaders. point of view, good reason for ~bcek regime has ig to hold the So- >romise of non- domestic affairs, ie time it has on a number of :able to Moscow. liberals, such In minister Hajek, :he announcement ire has been is of the ouster _ficials. Prague has yet to t special envoy ings to revamp Indeed, Presi- said to have esign, along with ership, if Moscow changes. The has instead rec- signation of all lower levels--who the confidence Many such indivi- riends of Moscow. temporarily post- omic reforms, but any designed to the Soviets. Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-009;7A006600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : 9IACRR1Wt00927A006600100001-0 Czechoslovak economists are stoutly defending the government's decision to proceed with other aspects of the economic reforms-- including the controversial work- ers' councils--in the face of attacks from Moscow. As planned before the invasion, non-Commu- nists are to share in the manage- ment of social, economic, and "other processes," despite in- sistent demands from the oc- cupiers for restoration of the Communist Party's control. Revised party statutes, which emphasize "democratization"-- now synonymous to counter rev- olution in the Soviet lexicon-- will remain largely valid. Censorship is ineffective and Premier Cernik has even de- fended the news media, adding that the government will not punish anyone for his political views. In addition, the Czecho- slovak population seems intent on erecting a growing shield of acclaim to protect Dubcek from Soviet ire. Towns are being re- named in his honor, "Dubcek fan clubs" are springing up, and ])ubcek pins are prominently worn. Nevertheless, the Soviets 25X1 have withdrawn one of the three division's that moved into Czecho- slovakia from Hungary. SOVIET PEOPLE QUESTION INTERVENTION IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA The USSR's intervention in Czechoslovakia appears to have had a broad impact on the Soviet population. Reactions have var- ied, but the regime's inability to justify its policy in cogent and consistent terms has led many people to feel uncertain about their leaders' actions. The liberal intelligentsia have been the most critical of the invasion. Many liberals viewed the Czechoslovak example of reform as the future hope of Communism. Nationally minded ele- ments among the Ukrainians, Balts, and other Western-oriented minori- ties, believing that their own hopes for greater independence from Moscow hinged on the success of the Czechoslovak experiment, have undoubtedly been similarly discouraged. Already bearing the SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 Approved For Releas 8 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 brunt of an ideological crackdown begun last spring, however, these groups have made only weak at- tempts to demonstrate their dis- approval. When they have done so, authorities have responded quickly with arrests and trials that ef- fectively kept the protest move- ment-from growing. There is some evidence of support for the intervention, especially within the USSR's work- ing class. Propaganda themes on the West German menace, the danger of losing Czechoslovakia to the West, and the Czechoslovak's in- gratitude for Soviet sacrifices have found a response among some elements of the Soviet population. Many people nevertheless are confused by shifts in the official line. One group of workers in Moscow, for example, would not be- lieve that Dubcek--portrayed by Pravda after the invasion as a traitor--was taking part in the Kremlin talks until they were shown a favorable new reference to him in Pravda. During a month's travel around the Soviet Union, a British journalist found not one person who appeared con- vinced by the regime's propaganda. The average Russian was able to recognize that the Soviet press was not giving the full story. Similarly, an American studying in Moscow found Soviet students ill-informed and, in their con- fusion, suspicious that their gov- ernment was guil y of something reprehensible. Popular ske ticism is prob- ably reinforced y the jamming of foreign broadcas s in Russian, which was abrupt y resumed after the invasion. T e jamming has not been entirel effective, how- ever, and even t e Soviet news media have been forced to report some of the Czec oslovak people's opposition to th those who are ob able to learn ab Czechoslovakia a criticism voice Rumania, and th nist parties. The seemin of Soviet actio any clear, high of policy are p est causes of p top Soviet lead jar address, pu lished, on Czec July. The news the leadership' ing repeatedly doctrination of the masses, but specific line. organized from tee to the fact unanimous appro April report an apreement, the elaborate ritua invasion or the agreement. invasion. Thus, ervant have been ut conditions in well as the by Yugoslavia, Western Commu- inconsistencies s and the lack of level exposition obably the great- pular unease. No r has given a ma- lished or unpub- oslovakia since apers indicate concern by call- or improved in- party members and do not define a Although meetings he Central Commit- ry level gave al to Brezhnev's to the Bratislava has been no such to endorse the subsequent Moscow SEC R E`1' Approved For Release 2007/03/08: CIA-RDP79-009 7A006600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : ?If-00927A006600100001-0 BALKAN COMMUNIST REGIMES ADJUST TO NEW REALITIES The regime of Rumanian leader Ceausescu seemed more relaxed last week despite rumors of possible Soviet military intervention. The Yugoslavs, even as they try to divine Soviet intentions, are ex- changing polemics with Moscow, while the Bulgarians sustain their strong support of Soviet policies. The Rumanians are seeking to work out a new relationship with the Warsaw Five, with Ceausescu hoping to follow a policy of con- ciliating his allies while adher- ing to his own national Communist course. The Rumanian press con- tinues to refrain from criticizing the Warsaw Five. It is publishing only brief factual reports on Czechoslovakia, and is stressing Bucharest's long-standing policy of "friendship with all." The Rumanians undoubtedly are influenced by reports of a Soviet military build-up near the Ruma- nian border. Thus Bucharest's re- cent efforts to call attention to the danger of Soviet intervention probably are in part a pre-emptive tactic against the Russians. At the same time, the Ceau- sescu regime recently announced the posthumous rehabilitation of the arch-Stalinist Vasile Luca. Several national Communists, most of whom appear to be Jews and eth- nic Hungarians, also were reha- bilitated. Luca's reinstatement can be considered a gesture to Moscow, while the others seem de- signed to supplement Ceausescu's drive for closer party and na- tional unity. He carried forward the drive this week on a speech- making tour through western Tran- sylvania. Yugoslav leaders are preoc- cupied with determining the USSR's future intentions. They are espe- cially apprehensive about Bulgar- ian threats toward Macedonia and possible Soviet economic repris- als. Belgrade is already look- ing for further means to diversify its foreign trade. Deputy Premier Kiro Gligorov will arrive in the US on 27 September to discuss the expansion of bilateral trade. Meanwhile, Yugoslav military forces remain on alert, and the .Population has been warned to guard against attempts to split them along nationality lines. Bulgarian party boss Todor Zhivkov went to Moscow on 16 Sep- tember and concluded an economic aid agreement of considerable ad- vantage to Bulgaria. Three days :Later, Soviet Marshal Yakubovsky, Warsaw Pact commander in chief, visited Sofia and later East Ber- :Lin and Warsaw, ostensibly to discuss "strengthening the War- saw Pact." His visit aroused new apprehensions among Bulgaria's Balkan neighbors. Sofia has of- ficially denied, however, that S C oviet troops are stationed in Bulgaria and there is no evidence that Bulgarian troops have moved toward the Yu os 1 ian borders. 25X1 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 Approved For Releas% &?8 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 i USSR SUSTAINS TENSIONS IN BONN AND BER.IN Soviet propaganda attacks are sustaining West German ten- sions already heightened by the Czechoslovak crisis. Izvestia has now warned against Bonn s-"en- croachments" on West Berlin and has repeated--in the face of Al- lied counterarguments -Moscow's claim that the UN charter and Potsdam agreements empower the Soviets to intervene in German affairs. The Soviet press has stressed the danger of a resur- gent German militarism, but the charges included no specific threats and did not go beyond the position Moscow set forth in a memo to Bonn last July. The tone of Moscow's propa- ganda seems more menacing in the wake of the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, but the con- tent suggests an effort to jus- tify that move. Soviet propa- gandists continue to portray the invasion as a defensive move necessitated by sinister NATO de- signs and by the threat of West German "militarism and neo-Na- zism." Moscow probably hopes to divert attention from the Czech- oslovak issue, and perhaps also to help forestall the strengthen- ing of NATO called for by Bonn. Privately, Soviet diplomats have given assurances in the West that Moscow contemplates no moves against West Berlin. A Soviet Embassy officer in Berlin report- edly told a West recently that Mo beyond propagand sponding to Bund meetings in the tober or to the vember. Moscow has t that such demons ties with Berlin but the Russian { that only a plen Bundestag would tolerance level. is not now under added that propa would include th access--the mode West German offi to avoid East Ge and would be "su a permanent effe rale," suggestin be strident inde None of the however, preclud East Germans, wh timate that they unspecified acti Berlin. The mee lin this week be leader Ulbricht Yakubovsky, chie Pact, probably f situation, but B have been discus Both the So Germans will be SEC RE]' Page 6 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-009 Berlin official cow would not go attacks in re- stag committee ity late in Oc- hristian Demo- in early No- arned in the past rations of Bonn's are "provocative, fficial indicated ry session of the xceed Moscow's Such a meeting consideration. He anda attacks question of air of travel most ials use in order man harassment-- ficient to leave t on Berlin mo- that they would d. Soviet assurances, s action by the continue to in- will take some in against West .ing in East Ber- ween East German nd Soviet Marshal ' of the Warsaw cused on the Czech rlin could well ed. iets and East rovided with an- Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : gIAep00927A006600100001-0 other target for at least a prop- aganda barrage if the Berlin branch of the National Democratic Party, the "neo-Nazi" group es- pecially odious to the Communists, holds its party congress in the city as planned on 18-19 October. The Allies are taking up the mat- ter with the West Berlin Senat, hoping it will ban such a meeting so that direct Allied action is not required. The West Germans are con- cerned over Communist intentions, but they are not contemplating any major concessions. Bonn leaders do not plan to cancel any of the meetings scheduled for the Bunde- stag committees and the Christian Democrats, but they share Allied reservations about allowing the National Democrats to meet in West Berlin. SECRET Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927A006600100001-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 I Approved For ReleaseIiIEGE : CIA-RDP79-OO9~7AOO66OO1OOOO1-0 DECLINING BIRTH RATE AROUSES SOVIET CON After relatively little change in the 1950s, the Soviet birth rate fell by almost one third during 1960-67. This down- ward trend is not likely to be reversed in the near future, and the regime may be forced to reconsider policies that en- couraged the decline. The Soviet birth rate drop- ped from 24.9 per thousand popu- lation in 1960 to 17.4 in 1967. This decline, combined with a small increase in the death rate, produced the lowest rate of population increase in the post - World War II period. The Soviet birth rate had exceeded that of the US in 1960, but since 1963 has remained below the US rate. The most important cause of this decline is a trend to- ward fewer children per family. In the Soviet Ui mainly from urb employment anion. shortage of hou, care facilities shortage of con government, more permits abortio has made divorc tain. In addit been a drop in women in prime ages (20-34 yea the low birth r War II. The low bi to continue wel decade. The nu the prime child will remain at level until the over, the main the drop in fer urbanization an of employment a even intensify future. Soviet demo result, are con future supply o the Soviet Unio: share of world -spite certain a short run--less care, education facilities, for declining birth that in the lon persons will be ing age. After ber of people j SECRET ion, this results nization, greater women, the ing and child and a general umer goods. The over, freely s, and since 1965 s easier to ob- on, there has he number of hild-bearing -s), a result of .tes during World th rate is likely into the next ber of women in bearing ages bout the current mid-1970s. More- nfluences on ility, such as the high rate gong women, may n the near graphers, as a erned about the manpower and 's decreasing opulation. De- vantages in the strain on child 1, and housing example--the rate means er run fewer reaching work- 1980, the num- oining the labor Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-009$7AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 bJ)Ck-Rqff9-00927AO06600100001-0 force will be increasingly offset by those reaching retirement age. If the birth rate continues to decline, the USSR may have difficulties meeting its rising civilian and military manpower requirements. Faced with a serious manpower problem in the early 1960s, the regime reduced the size of the armed forces and the number of full-time students, and encouraged housewives to take jobs. Today, with a smaller army, increased emphasis on edu- cation, and a higher percentage of women already employed, the regime would find it more diffi- SECRET Page 11 WEEKLY SUMMARY cult and costly to mobilize new sources of manpower. The largest potential source for industrial and urban needs is the agricul- tural labor force, but large in- vestments in farm mechanization would be required. So far, Soviet leaders have not publicly voiced concern over the economic implications of the decline in the birth rate. -if the decline continues, how- ever, the regime might resort to changes in its policies af- fecting marriage, birth control, and the employment of women. 1 -1 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 SO RlDPIl9-00927A006600100001-0 Allied ground operations and B-5:! attacks in South Vietnam continued to keep Communist forces off balance and to exact a heavy toll of enemy casualties and weapons losses. Even where Communist main force units managed to get themselves set for major ground assaults, they were beaten off, for the most part with heavy losses. The enemy's inability thus far in this campaign to deal heavy blows to urban centers and allied military positions has been partially offset by his apparent continuing success in extending political control in large areas of the countryside. There is a growing body of evidence that so-called "libera- tion" or "revolutionary" administrations are being widely established, mostly at the village level. The Communists have also significantly stepped up their assassination program against government officials in the country- side. The extension of the Communist ,iolitical apparatus is aimed not only at helping mobilize resources for the current war effort, but also at strength- ening the Communist position in the negotiation and implementation of any peace settlement. In China, Chou En-lai seems to be :making new moves to consolidate his authority over foreign nolicv_ his exclusive preserve before the Cultural ere will probably continue to be occasional aberrations, however, stimu- lated by militant Maoists in Peking, until the Cultural Revolution runs its course. After the latest flareup, both Malaysia and the Philippines seem anxious to prevent further escalation of the Sabah dispute. A major stumbling block to the resumption of a dialogue is Malaysia's refusal to discuss further the Philippines' claim to Sabah. Another factor that will make it difficult to keep tensions within bounds is the tendency of leaders of both countries to play politics with the issue Malaysia both have national elections next year. SECRET, Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Releas* 14Qj /Q3708 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 VIETNAM That phase of the current Communist offensive calling for large-unit attacks on allied strongpoints and urban centers continues to flounder in the face of allied spoiling opera- tions and stiff defensive actions. The Communists, however, demon- strated that they remain near the urban centers of the country by ~NORTN VIETNAM Demiflarized Zone "Rockpile= f~=G1O Linh i T # r 'Quang 1.. Hue* PHNOM PENH CAMBODIA Incrrrased enemy pressure f.4 ?J'H`~ *SAIGON Nha 25X1 SOUTH VIETNAM staging a series of rocket and mortar attacks throughout all four corps last week. Enemy main force units, how- ever, took heavy casualties in several ground engagements along the north-central coast from Da Nang to Binh Dinh Province. The impact of such casualties was re- flected in a captured notebook that detailed the failure of the North Vietnamese 21st Regiment to draw defenders away from Da Nang. Battalion-sized or larger North Vietnamese units also lost heavily during unsuccessful as- saults against allied targets of secondary importance in Tay Ninh Province, northwest of Saigon. Although the North Vietnam- ese have the equivalent of three divisions in the Demilitarized Zone area, allied spoiling opera- tions have effectively stymied their efforts to get in position for an offensive, dealing them heavy losses in terms of both personnel and supplies. In the eastern Demilitarized Zone area, for example, South Vietnamese Army forces this week reportedly killed more than 100 members of the North Vietnamese 27th and 138th regiments, raising collec- tive casualties to these regi- ments in the Gio Linh sector to 350 killed since 13 September. Meanwhile, along the west- ern anchor of the Demilitarized Zone, the discovery this week of a mass grave with more than 200 enemy bodies provided further evi- dence of the effectiveness of SECRET Page 14 WEEKLY SUMMARY 27 Sep 68 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO06600100001-0 Approved For Release 2007/03/08SI4fP1379-00927A006600100001-0 B-52 strikes in disrupting planned activity by the North Vietnamese 320th Division near the allied strong point at the "Rockpile." Moreover, in the past two weeks alone, the allies have cap- tured more than 1,000 weapons and 136 tons of munitions during sweep operations along the formerly neutral buffer zone--enough to equip an enemy regiment for sev- eral months. Allied spoiling operations have also undercut the enemy's capability to mount a sustained offensive along the northern coastal plains from Hue to Quang Tri city. In addition, the damaging effects of recent heavy rains and flooding from Typhoon Bess have made the enemy's already critical rice shortage still worse as well as causing wide- spread sickness among his troops and destroying many of his forti- fications. In the III Corps area, major elements of three Commu- nist divisions have been gen- erally unsuccessful in their campaign to weaken Saigon's de- fenses by forcing large-scale allied deployments to secondary targets under siege in the out- lying provinces. The increased enemy presence in Tay Ninh and Phuoc Long provinces, however, has worsened the security situa- tion there and further eroded the pacification programs. The Page 15 Communists this week made their first rocket attack in more than