WEEKLY SUMMARY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
37
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 29, 2008
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 20, 1969
Content Type: 
SUMMARY
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8.pdf1.72 MB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE IVEEKLY SUMMARY State Dept. review completed. Secret 4 3 20 June 1969 No. 0375/69 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET C O N T E N T S (Information as of noon EDT, 19 June 1969) Far East THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE VIETNAM The Communists stepped up their attacks against allied military targets this week while continuing to prepare for another upsurge of offensive action. The Communists' announcement of a provisional revolu- tionary government has encouraged ambitious South Vietnamese politicians to begin promoting themselves as an alternative "third force." CAMBODIA AGREES TO RE-ESTABLISH RELATIONS WITH THE US One of Sihanouk's main purposes in agreeing to re- establish diplomatic relations probably is to place Cambodia in a better position to put further pressure on the Vietnamese Communists. COMMUNIST MILITARY ACTIVITY IN LAOS LESSENS Heavy rains have brought a lull to the ground war but government forces are planning new initiatives. PEKING SHOWS FURTHER SIGNS OF NORMALITY Government ministries are beginning to function more normally in the wake of the ninth party congress held last April. Basic policy and staffing problems have not, however, been resolved. COMMUNIST CHINA PREPARED FOR BIRTH CONTROL A nationwide contraception program appears feasible for the first time since the Chinese began experiment- ing with birth control more than a decade ago. SECRET Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Page 1 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET OPPOSITION TO ANOTHER TERM FOR PRESIDENT PAK GROWS 9 Opponents of a third term for South Korean President Pak are becoming more confident. Europe THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE USSR CONSIDERS NEW POLICY INITIATIVES IN ASIA The deterioration in relations with China and the scaling down of the Vietnam war evidently have led Moscow to consider new policy directions in Asia. THE WORLD COMMUNIST CONFERENCE ENDS The conference ended with adoption of the main docu- ment on the "imperialist" threat and the "unity" of the Communist world. GOVERNMENT CRISIS THREATENS IN ITALY Factionalism within the two major coalition parties is once again threatening the stability of the center- left government. SECRET Page ii WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET INSTABILITY INCREASES IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA Party first secretary Husak returned to Prague on 18 June to face an intensifying feud between party fac- tions and a population increasingly alienated from his leadership. NEW FRENCH PRESIDENT FACES SERIOUS DOMESTIC PROBLEMS Pompidou will be acutely aware that his most pressing problems during his first few months will be in the domestic rather than the foreign policy sphere. Middle East - Africa SUEZ CLOSURE SPEEDS DEVELOPMENT OF OVERLAND TRADE ROUTES Railroads, highways and oil pipelines are assuming increasing importance for shipments between Europe and Asia as the closure of the Suez Canal enters its third year. GREEK GOVERNMENT CRACKS DOWN ON DISSIDENTS In the past two months the Greek Government has begun a wave of trials and arrests of many of its opponents within the country. RHODESIAN FRONT'S PROPOSALS WILL WIN APPROVAL Prime Minister Ian Smith's constitutional proposals and his plan to declare white-ruled Rhodesia a re- public are certain to pass on 20 June, although it is unclear by how wide a margin. SECRET Page iii WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET Western Hemisphere THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE 25 OPPOSITION TO PERU'S MILITARY GOVERNMENT GROWS The unpopularity of the government's policies and actions is creating a situation in which important changes in the government may occur. ARGENTINE CABINET REORGANIZED President Ongania has completed his new cabinet, which now must deal immediately with several major problems, with student and labor unrest heading the list. COPPER AND POLITICS MIX IN CHILE As negotiations continue between the Chilean Govern- ment and a US copper company, politicians are drawing up legislation that would nationalize the copper in- dustry in whole or in part. RULING DOMINICAN PARTY FACES SPLIT Vice President Lora's public refusal to support Pres- ident Balaguer if he seeks re-election next May in- creases chances for an open break in party ranks. SECRET Page iv WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET Battle lines for future political confrontation between the Saigon gov- ernment and the Communists have hardened in the wake of the Communist announcement of a provisional revolutionary government and President Thieu's recent efforts to line up his political support. At the same time, ambitious politicians in Saigon have been encouraged by the Communist move to disassociate themselves from either side and promote themselves as an alternative "third force." Communist forces increased their attacks against allied military targets this week while continuing to prepare for another upsurge of offensive action. Enemy shellings of allied bases and field positions were accompanied by some follow-up ground attacks. Government ministries in Communist China are beginning to function more normally in the aftermath of the ninth party congress, but basic policy and staffing problems have not been resolved. Peking has been insisting that many cadres purged during the Cultural Revolution must now be restored to active roles, suggesting that those with the greatest interest in order and national development are now influential enough to put the radicals on notice that obstruction of cadre rehabilitation will not be tolerated. Political disunity and sporadic violence continue to erupt in several provinces, and meaningful progress toward normal governmental operations is likely to be slow at best. Heavy rains have brought a lull to the ground war in Laos, but government forces are planning new initiatives. Except for inroads in the northeast, the Communists brought neither substantial new territory nor great numbers of additional people under their control during the recently ended dry season. SECRET Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 I Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET VIETNAM Communist military forces stepped up their attacks against allied military targets throughout South Vietnam this week while con- tinuing to prepare for another upsurge of offensive action. Enemy shellings of allied bases and field positions were accompanied by some follow-up ground attacks. South Vietnam- ese infantrymen and US Marines were targets of several heavy ground attacks in the northern provinces and allied forces throughout III Corps were struck. The largest attack was an abortive assault against the Thai base camp in Bien Hoa Province where 212 of the enemy forces were killed. More than 1,800 of the enemy have been killed in western Kontum and Pleiku prov- inces, where intense fighting has continued since early May. The three Communist infantry reg- iments in this area, however, have been brought up to strength with newly infiltrated North Vietnamese troops and are in a position to maintain the recent high level of combat. areas. Evidence now, indicates that the Communists' "suarrner" campaign is to be limited an moderate in intensity, and will emphasize harassment of scatt red allied installations in or e:r to limit Many Communist military units are in the final stages of combat preparation and have been actively engaged in reconnaissance operations. Some appear to be deploying toward intended target U 50 10 O _.... .~ 45758 6-69 CIA__ _.~..~..._ _ MI L.F5 ...... SECRET Page 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY 2 0 Jun. :6 9 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 W Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET losses of Communist forces and materiel. Shellings and limited ground probes will probably be concentrated in I and III Corps and at present there does not appear to be any appreciable threat to Saigon. Political Developments With their military units poised for attack, the Communists are examining the impact of their new provisional government in the political arena. The Communist announcement last week, coupled with President Thieu's recent efforts to line up his political support, has hardened the battle- lines for a future political con- frontation. It has also encour- aged ambitious politicians in Sai- gon to disassociate themselves from either side and promote them- selves as an alternative "third force." Several of the most important opposition groups in South Vietnam met on 15 June to discuss the establishment of some sort of opposition group to Thieu and his National Social Democratic Front. The major figures involved were Senator Tran Van Don, former chief of state Phan Khac Suu, Hoa Hao leader Phan Ba Cam, Nguyen Ngoc Huy of the National Progressive Movement (NPM), plus emissaries from Father Hoang Quynh and the An Quang Buddhists. The cement holding these disparate forces together appears to be their belief--shared more or less by Thieu--that South Vietnam needs to organize a nationalist opposi- tion party to provide an alterna- tive for those who might otherwise turn to the Communists. Such political luminaries as Don, Suu and even Cam demonstrated consid- erable vote-getting ability in the 1967 elections, while the NPM is partly made up of the politi- cal organizations which supported Truong Dinh Dzu's strong run for the presidency. At the other end of the op- position spectrum is leftist lawyer Tran Ngoc Lieng, who has publicly called for the immediate investiture of a "government of conciliation." He reportedly envisions an alliance of neutra- lists, antigovernment nationalists and militant Buddhists collabo- rating to force out the present government by forming a temporary one which he fancies would in- clude such influential personali- ties as Senator Don and General "Big" Minh. Lieng allegedly ad- vocates cooperation with the Communists' provisional govern- ment in an interim coalition that would hold elections in South Vietnam. Lieng's grandiose scheme fits the standard Communist scenario demanding the ouster of the present government and the establishment of a peace cabinet. As a result, the government has SECRET Page 3 I Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET already taken steps to put the lid on Lieng's nascent organiza- tion by calling in various members for questioning. Thieu had warned on his return from Midway that he would not tolerate the open advocacy of a coalition government. Meanwhile, there appears to be increasing displeasure with Prime Minister Huong's conduct of office, although there is no indi- cation that President Thieu has soured on him. Page 4 Oppostion to Iuong within the military establishment may also be increasing. The prime minister has never'received much support from military leaders but many officers reportedly are now concerned by the government's inability to do anything about the rising cost of living and believe that conditions will not improve until the.IHuon cabinet is replaced. SECRET Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8 SECRET CAMBODIA AGREES TO RE-ESTABLISH RELATIONS WITH THE US One of Prince Sihanouk's main purposes in declaring that he is ready to re-establish diplo- matic relations with the US prob- ably is to place Cambodia in a better position to put further pressure on the Vietnamese Com- munists. In his statement on 10 June to the Council of Ministers, Si- hanouk argued that establishing relations with the US would en- able Cambodia to avoid becoming "too isolated." He implied that an official American presence would improve Cambodia's ability to resist pressures from both local and Vietnamese Communists, and would strengthen his hand in present military and diplomatic efforts to limit Vietnamese ac- tivity in Cambodia. Sihanouk cited the predomi- nant US influence in such inter- national programs as the Mekong River basin development and the International Monetary Fund, and claimed that improved relations with Washington would make avail- able more resources for Cambodian development. Attracting foreign investment has been a major theme in Phnom Penh's current plan to revitalize the country's lethargic economy. Sihanouk rejected, how- ever, the idea of asking for di- rect US aid unless free of "con- ditions." The quickness with which Sihanouk recognized the Vietnamese Communists' re- cently declared Provisional Re- ingness to meet them half way indicates his continuing will- volutionary Government Page 5 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927A007100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET COMMUNIST MILITARY ACTIVITY IN LAOS LESSENS Heavy rains have brought a lull to the ground war but government forces are planning new initiatives. Communist forces appear to be moving into a defensive posture after one of their more restrained dry seasons in recent years. For several weeks enemy forces have been consolidating their hold over portions of southern Xieng Khouang Province they had lost to government guerrillas in late April. There have been tenuous signs that some North Vietnamese forces are being withdrawn from Laos as part. of the routine wet season op- erational standdown, but so far most of the troops that entered the coun- try last fall are still there. The burdens of mounting overland mili- tary operations in the wet season probably will cause the Communists to refrain, as they have in past years, from any substantial mili- tary initiative over the next sev- eral months. Meanwhile, Elements of three government battalions have recently taken Sala Den Din in preparation for an assault against Tha Thom, a supply center that the Communists captured last year. Farther north, Meo leader Vang Pao intends to ex- tend government holdings near the Plaine des Jarres and increase harassment against Route 7. Vang Pao's preoccupation with this area apparently rules out any early ef- fort to re-establish the govern- ment's presence in tribal areas farther north. Except for inroads in the northeast, the Communists brought neither substantial new territory nor great numbers of additional people under their control during the dry season. The exodus of large numbers of a progovernment tribal population from the northeast, com- bined with the lobs of Na Khang, an important government staging base, will, however, add significantly to the government's ',increasing diffi- culties in operating behind the enemy's lines in''Samneua Province. In the south, Thateng, on the north- eastern edge of the Bolovens Pla- teau, was the only important govern- ment position to fall into enemy hands this year. The alarmist reaction of the government leaders to these limited losses was the most noteworthy fea- ture of the past., dry season. It suggests that the will of the lead- ership to withstand future Communist threats may be s li. in . territory Contested territory SECRET CAMBODIA Page 6 WEEKLY SUMMARY 2 0 Jun 6 9 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET PEKING SHOWS FURTHER SIGNS OF NORMALITY Government ministries are be- ginning to function more normally in the wake of the ninth party congress held last April. Basic policy and staffing problems have not, however, been resolved as Peking has concentrated on quell- ing resistance to its drive to restore political unity and re- habilitate some cadres. Without publicity, Peking has taken some steps toward deal- ing more responsibly with press- ing domestic problems. New atten- tion, for example, is being de- voted to the urgent problem of birth control--largely ignored during the Cultural Revolution. The clearest move toward more con- ventional operations is in the post-congress conduct of foreign affairs; 12 of China's 45 ambas- sadors have returned to duty. Despite these indications of a more businesslike approach, the party congress evidently failed to act on basic economic and social policies. Instead its Page 7 energies were taken up by divi- sive political issues, especially cadre "rehabilitation," which have broad implications for every group in the power structure. Peking on 8 June broadcast its most authoritative pronounce- ment to date on restoring politi- cal unity at all levels. This statement insisted that many cadres who had been purged during the Cultural Revolution must now be restored to positions of au- thority and excoriated "leftists" who are blocking progress in this field. This suggests that ele- ments in China's leadership with the greatest interest in order and national development--pri- marily the central and regional military leaders--are now influ- ential enough to put the radicals on notice that obstruction of the 25X1 rehabilitation process will not 25X1 be tolerated. Peking has a long way to go in solving this problem, however, as political disunity and sporadic factional violence continue to erupt in several provinces. Hence, meaningful progress toward normal governmental operations is likely to be slow at best. SECRET Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET COMMUNIST CHINA PREPARED FOR BIRTH CONTROL A nationwide contraception program now appears feasible for the first time since the Chinese began experimenting with birth control more than a decade ago. The loop seems to have been se- lected over other contraceptive methods, and medical personnel needed to administer such a pro- gram have been sent to the coun- tryside, the locus of the problem. After three years of offi- cial silence on the subject, pragmatic voices in the govern- ment appear to have overcome ide- ological opposition by arguing the obvious need for population control. Earlier this year Pre- mier Chou En-lai devoted most of an interview 25X1 to a discussion of China's population problem. The influence of the opposition, however, can be discerned in the almost total absence of press propaganda on the subject. Intra-uterine devices appar- ently have been adopted as the -type of contraceptive because they are effective, yet cheap and simple to manufacture and require a minimum of medical skills to administer. The necessary medical per- sonnel to administer a loop pro- gram are probably now in the countryside, where 85 per cent of China's population lives. during the past year personnel from urban medical centers have been transferred en masse to the communes, partly for political reform. The presence of most of China's doctors, nurses, and med- ical technicians in the country- side means that. for the first time the competence for adminis- tering a contraceptive program is now available in rural areas. The greatest remaining bar- rier to effective birth control in China is the resistance and lack of sophistication of the peasantry. Rural medical treat- ment centers being set up to serv- ice a new medical insurance pro- gram may help :Lh gaining the peasant's acceptance of birth control. People lured to the centers by prospects of inexpen- sive medical cafe could become promising subjects for conversion if the program is administered adroitly. No action that can be envis- aged at this t:LIne, however, is likely to reduce China's popula- tion growth by more than a mar- ginal amount during the next few years. Peking has always avoided coercive methods to enforce birth control. Although the leadership acknowledges that the population is now as much hs 750 million, it is probably Moser to the 825 million estimated by Western de- mographers. No matter which figure is closet,, it is probable that the population will grow by at least 15 million annuall in the near future. SECRET Page 8 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET OPPOSITION TO ANOTHER TERM FOR PRESIDENT PAK GROWS Opponents of a third term for South Korean President Pak are becoming more confident. Leaders of the major opposi- tion party, which has 46 assembly seats, are also showing more con- fidence that the amendment can be defeated. In an unusual dis- play of unanimity, the party at its annual convention last month re-elected its president by ac- clamation on a platform pledged to defeat the proposed amendment. Supporters of Pak have been predicting victory. The govern- ment party's secretary general assured the press on 3 June that the amendment would pass when it goes befcre the assembly--report- edly late this year or early next. Although the party's annual con- vention has reportedly been set for August, President Pak never- theless has not publicly committed himself to the amendment and the activities of the regime's se- curity apparatus belie the confi- dence expressed by the amendment's proponents. Public attention probably has been temporarily diverted from the third-term issue by the re- cent successes of the much im- proved internal security forces in frustrating seaborne infiltra- tion attempts by North Korean agents. On 8 June three North Korean agents were ambushed as they attempted to land on the east coast in the same general area where some 120 agents landed successfully last November. Four days later, a 75-ton agent boat was destroyed in a trap off the southwestern coast. Again on 14 June, three Communist agents were killed after they came ashore near the US air base at Kunsan on the central west coast. Anti - third-term activity by students threatens to claim the spotlight, however. Possibly encouraged by the success of a student sit-in early in the week, about 500 students at each of two leading Seoul universities held meetings on 19 June against abol- ishing the no third--term rule. The sit-in was the first since the student demonstrations during the South Korean - Japanese treaty negotiations in 1964-65. The apparent flurry of student activ- ity may be intended to probe the limits of official tolerance in preparation for off-campus demon- strations, reportedly planned to follow the students' return to school this fall. SECRET Page 9 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET SECRET Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET The international Communist conference ended with approval of the main conference document by most of the 75 attending parties. Moscow could be pleased that the conference was held at all, that wording was found to win at least the grudging support of most of the parties, and that many speakers backed party chief Brezhnev's attack on China. The final document is vague and propagandistic on doctrinal points, however, and falls far short of providing an action program for the Communist world. The divergent views, so apparent before and during the conference, have hardly been reconciled, and each party can find support for its position in the rhetoric of the conference documents and proceedings. A consultative meeting of 39 nonaligned countries will open in Belgrade on 8 July, the first such gathering of the so-called uncommitted countries since 1964. Yugoslav leader Tito hopes the gathering will lead to a third nonaligned summit, an enthusiastic view not shared by many of the others who will be attending. Czechoslovak party leader Husak continues to balance on a tightrope between the demands for change by the Soviet leaders and the needs of the Czechoslovak populace, which fears a return to heavy repressive policies. In Moscow at the international conference, Husak tried to assure his confreres that he had the situation under control at home. He returned to Prague to find the internal party struggle for power intensifying and the population more alienated from his leadership than ever. The most urgent problems of newly elected French President Pompidou are domestic rather than foreign. Chiefly, the government must find a way to cope with deep-seated labor unrest without causing an inflation that will threaten the franc. The stability of the Italian Government is threatened by factionalism within the coalition's Christian Democratic and Socialist parties. The leader- ship of these parties is being contested in meetings later this month against a background of debate as to whether the Communist Party is a worthy coalition partner. SECRET Page 11 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Iq Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET USSR CONSIDERS NEW POLICY INITIATIVES IN ASIA The continued deterioration in relations with China and the belief that the Vietnam conflict is scaling down evidently have led Moscow to consider new policy initiatives in Asia. The Soviets seem to be thinking in terms of proposing some kind of regional cooperation or loosely defined "collective security" arrange- ments for various Asian countries. Moscow's recall this month of most of its ambassadors to Asian countries, is probably connected with a general policy review. The Soviet effort appears to have gotten under way in May when Premier Kosygin made separate trips to India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, only one of which had been long-planned. In each country, Kosygin placed consid- erable emphasis on the China "menace" and the need for those countries to solve their differ- ences peacefully and to work to- ward regional cooperation. He evidently followed up these talks with at least one concrete pro- posal. On 16 June Indian Prime Minister Gandhi said her govern- ment had responded favorably to Kosygin's suggestion to discuss freer trade and transit with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. On 28 May, an Izvestia ar- ticle suggested for the first time that Moscow would favor an all-Asian security arrangement. In his speech before the world Communist conference on 7 June Brezhnev noted that "the course of events" was creating the need for 1a system of collective se- curity in Asia," but he did not amplify on these remarks. The recall of Moscow's am- bassadors to Asia probably means that Moscow's ideas are still being formulat:od. The meeting, which was apparently called in some haste, was probably also prompted by the return to some semblance of normalcy in Chinese diplomacy follbwing the Chinese Communists' n:Ljth Congress and by a desire to :review the pros- pects for settling the Vietnam conflict. if a "col'l'ective security" system for Asia is under consid- eration, it might contain at least some of the same features as Moscow's European security proposals. This might mean pro- posing an allHAsian security con- ference at which all nations would agree to stay out of military blocs, solve their differences peacefully, a.r4d. work toward better political, economic, and cultural relations. Even by proposing a "collec- tive securitarrangement for Asia, Moscow would be able to portray itself as interested in Asian peace a#id harmony in con- trast to the Chinese who could be expected to denounce it. Mos- cow could also present it as a constructive alternative to exist- ing regional organizations which Moscow claims'; are dominated by the US. SECRET Page 14 WEEKLY SUMMARY 2 0 Jun 6 9 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET THE WORLD COMMUNIST CONFERENCE ENDS The world Communist confer- ence of 75 parties ended on 17 June with adoption of the main document on the "imperialist" threat and the "unity" of the Communist world. Sixty-one par- ties signed the document without reservation, but five did not sign and nine others gave quali- fied or partial approval. The document that emerged from the conference was the re- sult of revisions up to the last moment. It retains its bellig- erency toward imperialism but is rather bland on the controversial subject of relations among Com- munist parties. It balances a defense of "proletarian interna- tionalism," with statements de- voted to the autonomy of indi- vidual parties. The nonsigners were the Do- minican Republic and the Cuban and Swedish parties, which were present only as observers. The British and Norwegian delegates withheld their signatures, pend- ing a decision by their central committees. The parties of Aus- tralia, Italy, and San Marino agreed to sign only one of the four sections of the document, that on anti-imperialism. The parties of Switzerland, Sudan, Romania, Spain, Reunion and Mo- rocco are reported to have signed with reservations. By contrast, other documents which issued from the conference ran into little opposition. The conference endorsed appeals on the centenary of Lenin's birth, Vietnam and peace. It issued statements in support of the Arabs against Israeli aggression, and solidarity with Communists under repression in several coun- tries. The conference unanimously adopted a proposal to convene a world anti-imperialist congress open to non-Communists, and it set up a commission of 13 parties to prepare it. The conference as a whole was dominated by the tide of de- nunciations of China--stimulated by the Soviets--that arose from the floor. In a rough box score of speeches by the 75 delegations, 51, including the Italians, con- demned the Chinese leadership by name. Two parties, including Romania, adopted a neutral stance. Nineteen avoided the issue, though several alluded to it by condemn- ing "left opportunism." Soviet party chief Brezhnev, in a speech to delegates at a re- ception following the conference, stated that the conference had successfully completed its work. Moscow, with fairly limited goals, got a good deal of what it set out for, but only at the cost of demonstrating the divergent opin- ions that exist in world Commu- nism. Each party, whether faith- fully supporting the Soviet line or not, will find words and phrases in the conference documents and proceedings to support its views. The end result, therefore, may be less, not more, discipline in in- ternational Communism. SECRET Page 15 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET GOVERNMENT CRISIS THREATENS IN ITALY Factionalism within the two major coalition parties, the Christian Democratic and the So- cialist, is once again threaten- ing the stability of the center- :Left government in Italy. Both parties will face struggles over leadership posts at meetings later this month, and an important faction of the Socialists threatens to form a separate political party. The issue--divisive for both par- ties--of whether the Italian Com- munists are worthy of eventual consideration as a coalition partner may become sharper fol- lowing the Italian party's rela- tively independent stand at the Moscow conference. Last month an effort to ex- clude right-wing leaders from the controlling group of the So- cialist party led the right wing- ers to threaten to walk out of the party. This action still threatens and may occur at the Socialist Central Committee meet- ing beginning on 23 June. The conservatives are considering re-forming the old Social Demo- cratic party, which united with the Italian Socialist party in 1966. They believe that their opponents in the Socialist party are too willing to open a dialogue with the Italian Communists, look- ing toward eventual political co- operation. The Christian Democrats will also meet shortly, in a national congress during the last week in June. Left-wing leaders are press- ing for a role in the party lead- ership which is now in the hands of a coalition of center and con- servative factions. Resolution of this problem could well result in major shifts in the party lead- ership which could in turn lead to a government shake-up. In recent months the govern- ment has made important progress in its domestic program. It has put into effect the new Social Security Pension Law, which calcu- lates pensions at a relatively high percentage of working income. It has also gorse forward with a variety of other legislation, ranging from university reform to a divorce bill. The govern- ment of Mariano Rumor hopes to keep up legislative momentum de- spite the prevalent political in- fighting and thus improve pros- pects for long-term government stability. The leaders fear, however, that legislative prog- ress may be cut short by an early government crisis and that the problem of the democratic parties' relations with the Communists may then become acute. SECRET Page 16 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jura E19 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET INSTABILITY INCREASES IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA Party first secretary Husak last week tried to assure the in- ternational Communist conference in Moscow that his regime had the domestic situation under control. He returned to Prague, however, to face an intensifying feud between party factions and a population in- creasingly alienated from his lead- ership. Husak's remarks to a press conference in Moscow dispelled pop- ular hopes of a Soviet troop with- drawal and a substantial loan from the USSR in the immediate future. He further implied that these is- sues would require protracted ne- gotiations at various levels. He emphasized that Prague and Moscow would continue to work out the problems of "normalization," sug- gesting that the two respective in- terpretations must still be recon- ciled. While Husak was in the USSR, pro-Soviet conservatives stepped up their campaign to return the country to a more orthodox politi- cal system. The Czech party bureau, dominated by hard liners, is plan- ning sweeping personnel changes in the middle and lower levels of the party in Bohemia and Moravia. The conservatives also have weakened Husak's program to rehabilitate political prisoners unjustly con- demned during the Stalinist era. The party's official rehabilita- tion report--which would incriminate many hard liners--has been shelved, and the party rehabilitation com- mission, now chaired by a conserva- tive, is rejecting one half of all applications for reviews. The hard liners are also urging more repressive measures--hinting that arrests might be necessary-- against still defiant groups of in- tellectuals and workers, many of whom are openly opposing Husak's cooperation with the conservatives. Open protest is still possible be- cause police terror has not been reinstated as an instrument of pol- icy and because Husak and his hard- line protagonists have been preoc- cupied with gaining control of the party. Earlier this month, progressive workers held unsanctioned meetings in the industrial towns of Ostrava and Kladno. In these and other places, a production slowdown is spreading among factory workers who are politically disenchanted and ap- prehensive about economic belt-tight- ening measures. The mass media have been si- lenced, but the liberal intellec- tuals are now getting support from some Czech party politicians who are demanding that the dissident Czech writers' and journalists' unions be permitted new journals to replace those that have been banned. Per- haps as a sop to the disaffected writers, Husak declared in Moscow that censorhip will be abolished af- ter an undefined, but probably lengthy "transition period." Husak probably will relax press restric- tions once he is assured that the editors will voluntarily eschew anti-Soviet and antiregime arti- cles. SECRET Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET NEW FRENCH PRESIDENT FACES SERIous DOMESTIC PROBLEMS Georges Pompidou officially took power yesterday as the second President of France's Fifth Re- public. In choosing a prime min- ister and putting together a new cabinet, Pompidou will be acutely aware that his most pressing prob- lems during his first few months in office will be in the domestic rather than the foreign policy sphere. The labor front has been un- usually quiet since March. Union leaders were anxious to deny-- first to De Gaulle during the referendum campaign, and then to Pompidou during the presidential campaign--any opportunity to ex- ploit fears of instability. Such fears had greatly aided the Gaul- list party in the parliamentary elections of June 1968. Deep- seated unrest persists, however, and labor, after allowing Pompidou a brief honeymoon until the August vacations are over, probably will renew agitation for increased wages to meet the rising cost of living. In fact, given the ex- tremely weak position of the par- ties of the left in the National Assembly as well as the remote- ness of new parliamentary elec- tions, strikes and demonstrations will be the only effective way that the left can influence the Pompidou regime. In dealing with labor unrest, government decisions will be shaped in large measure by fear of another financial crisis on the scale of last November's. Evidence of an, overheating of the economy has ben accumulating since early sp~:ing. This will put heavy preslsure on prices, and thus have a negative impact on France's trade;: balance. In these circumstances,; any large infla- tionary labor; settlement would almost certainly trigger another round of speci4lation against the franc, a deve]rcpment the govern- ment will definitely try to avoid. Many observers in Paris be- lieve the only man with suffi- cient stature; to deal effectively with France's; complex economic dilemma is Antoine Pinay, former Fourth Republ~c prime minister during the fist years of De Gaulle's rule'. Pinay's appoint- ment to a cab,,inet position would, in the short term, bolster the confidence o~, the French in their currency andeconomic future, but a far-reaching program for coping with France'4' economic ills will be necessary' This program could include deva cation, new austerity measures, an tighter exchange controls. Fortunately for Pompidou, prospects ace brighter on the student front. He is likely to continue thef controlled experi- ment in university reform, be- gun after last May's crisis, with the reasonable expectation that these changes will keep student dissidence t. a low level when classes res ie late in the fall. SECRET Page 18 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET Efforts by Jordan's King Husayn to persuade Iran and Iraq to open negotiations in Amman on the Shatt al-Arab dispute have fallen through, at least temporarily. The Iraqis apparently attached conditions to beginning discussions which the Iranians found unacceptable. The Jordanians had hoped the talks would start this week. In Pakistan, merger talks involving four minor parties have begun. A successful union of these parties probably will not simplify the political spectrum, now cluttered by a dozen or more parties and factions, because two more new parties reportedly are being formed. President Yahya Khan has warned that elections are unlikely until the plethora of parties has been significantly reduced. Student demonstrations in Kabul have abated, and the first significant dialogue between alienated university officials and the government has taken place. Rumors persist, however, that a cabinet shuffle may be in the offing, with the government adopting firmer measures to maintain law and order. In Africa, the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) continues to publicize its cause by acts of sabotage outside Ethiopia. For the second time, the ELF has inflicted damage on an Ethiopian Airlines jet, this time in Karachi on 19 June. Relief flights into secessionist Biafra have now virtually ceased, at least temporarily remains essentially stalemated, but a Biafran air attack on 18 June on an oil installation in federal territory underscores the increasing threat to the continued flow of Nigerian oil. SECRET Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET SUEZ CLOSURE SPEEDS DEVELOPMENT OF OVERLAND TRADE ROUTES The closure of the Suez Canal, now two years old, has accelerated the development of overland trade routes between Eu- rope and countries of the Middle East and South Asia, although most of the trade continues to move by way of the longer sea routes. Routes between Iran and western Europe are being improved, Turkey is promoting its transit role in trade between Europe and points east of Suez, and several oil pipelines are under construc- tion or have been proposed. Shipments between Iran and Europe via the USSR--primarily through the port of Leningrad-- have increased to the point of overtaxing Iranian customs, rail, and port facilities. Soviet technicians are working with the Iranians, however, to improve the congested railroad facilities at Jolfa, to modernize the Joifa- Tabriz railroad, and to expand Iranian ports on the Caspian as well as build a large new harbor. These programs also will facili- tate the USSR's use of Iranian railroads and ports in its trade with the Middle East and South Asia. The scheduled opening next year of the Central Treaty Organ- ization railroad, which will link Iranian railroads, including lines to the Persian Gulf ports, with Turkey will provide an alternative to the trade routes through the USSR. Together with its neighbor- ing countries, Turkey is trying to increase the use of an existing rail link across its territory from Europe to Iraq. The spur joining Baghdad with Basra, re- cently completed with Soviet as- sistance, has extended this line to the Persian Gulf. In addi- tion, truck transport to Europe via Turkey and Lebanon is in- creasing as highways are improved. Closure of the canal has also lent impetus to the growing role of crude oil pipelines in the Middle East. Israel is work- ing on a 42-inch pipeline from Eilat to the Mediterranean; the line's annual capacity will be 20 million tons when the first stage is completed later this year. Faced with the competitive threat of this pipeline, Egypt probably will proceed with its plans to construct a pipeline with an initial annual capacity of 50 million tons from Suez to Alexandria to move Egyptian and Middle East oil to the Mediter- ranean. SECRET Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET Odessa . lzmai of Overland Trade Routes Between Europe and Asia PROPOOEO'" Suez HA Baghdad New' Delhi SECRET Continued Closure of Suez Canal Accelerates Development Railroad Highway Oil pipeline Trade route 95352 6-69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET GREEK GOVERNMENT CRACKS DOWN ON DISSIDENTS In the past two months the Greek Government has begun a wave of trials and arrests of many of its opponents within the country. The regime appears securely en- trenched, and its leaders appar- ently feel able to cope with any foreign criticism certain to be aroused by such actions. The opposition elements pri- marily center around a small group of retired officers, ex- politicians, imprisoned Commu- nists or Communist supporters, intellectuals, and a few students. Those opposing the regime, how- ever, are not against the govern- ment for the same reasons, nor do they work together. There is no determined pattern of opposi- tion, and the many resistance groups remain fragmented and largely ineffective. Beginning early last spring, the government brought to trial many Communists and Communist supporters who had been in prison for several months. The trials were interrupted, from time to -time, by the defendants who charged that they had been tor- tured. The government has coun- tered these accusations by point- Lng to the recent escape and re- arrest of the would-be assassin, Alexander Panagoulis, citing his escape as proof of the leniency with which the government has treated such a criminal. Even though the trials were open to the public, they were almost to- tally ignored by the local press. Although these incidents have so far caused no loss of life or extensive damage, they have be- come increasingly dramatic and could cause a drop in tourist travel to Greec ' SECRET Page 2 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 65 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET RHODESIAN FRONT'S PROPOSALS WILL WIN APPROVAL The referendums on 20 June on Prime Minister Ian Smith's con- stitutional proposals and his plan to declare Rhodesia a repub- lic are certain to be approved by the country's overwhelmingly white electorate. Because many voters are apparently still undecided, however, and opposition to the proposals has increased slightly, it is unclear how large a major- ity they will get. A recent poll, although based on an extremely limited sampling, indicated that perhaps as many as 30 percent of the voters were still undecided. This number may in part represent voters who were puzzled at the outset by the need for a new con- stitution and whose doubts appar- ently have not been dispelled by campaign rhetoric. The passage of Smith's pro- posals, moreover, will lead in- evitably to a final break with Britain, and some Rhodesians still seem reluctant to take such a step. Nevertheless, the Rhodesian Front will win, because it has based its appeal squarely on white self-interest and continued white-minority rule. Smith's constitutional proposals are a clear example. Theoretically Africans could, under Smith's terms, obtain representational parity in the legislature as their income tax contributions increased and finally matched those of the whites. Even if they could do so, however, only half their number would be popu- larly elected, the other half would be tribal chiefs, the only African group that has consist- ently supported the Smith gov- ernment. Parity itself, however, is virtually impossible to obtain. In order for Africans to increase their legislative representation by even two, from 16 to 18 in a house initially to be composed of 66 members, their income tax contributions would first need to exceed 24 percent of the to- tal. In 1967-68 Africans con- tributed less than one percent. Thus, as Smith has claimed, his proposals will ensure that gov- ernment remains in "responsible hands." At best, the Centre Party, Smith's main opponent and an ad- vocate of settlement with Brit- ain, has made a few inroads into the Front's strength, including drawing to its side the former SECRET Page 23 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET commander of the Rhodesian Army lead earlier this week in cai and some low ranking Front offi- ing on the UN Security Council cials. to condemn the'Front's proposals. Meanwhile, to pre-empt the the African states and keep the initiative, Britain took the SECRET Page 2 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET This week Governor Rockefeller began the third of his four fact-finding trips to Latin America. In sharp contrast to the last trip, this one has been very quiet-at least so far. During his three-day stay in Brazil, the Governor encountered practically no hostility, mostly because of the heavy security precautions imposed by the Costa e Silva administration. Paraguay, where the Governor arrived on 19 June, is also expected to be quiet, but there probably will be demonstrations in Uruguay, the Governor's last stop. The final trip will begin about the first of next month and will include Argentina and the Caribbean countries. Argentina's President Ongania has completed the reorganization of the top echelon of his administration with the appointment of a new defense minister. The new minister is a brother of a key general on active service, and his appointment may be in response to a desire by high military officers to have a greater voice in the government's decisions. The Ongania regime will probably make some move to alleviate the student and labor unrest that has been prevalent since May, but the level of tension is likely to remain high for some time. Chilean Foreign Minister Valdes is continuing to promote the idea that Cuba should be reintegrated into the inter-American system. In conversa- tions with US officials last week, Valdes took the line that ending Cuba's isolation would reduce its threat as a source of revolution. He has often said in the past that Latin American nations, acting as a group, should resume trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba, but he has usually qualified his statements by asserting that Cuba must first stop "exporting" revolution. Valdes' attitude seems to have aroused little enthusiasm elsewhere in the hemisphere. In Panama, Bolivar Urrutia was installed as acting president following the heart attack of President Pinilla on 10 June. Urrutia, the former deputy commandant of the National Guard, will preside over the government in form only. Current guard commandant, General Torrijos, remains the coun- try's strong man. The Peruvian Government's heavy-handed methods of dealing with its opposition are giving rise to increasing public resentment. At the same time, the resignation of the minister of agriculture and growing opposition in business circles to the government's economic policies may be creating a group that has both the means and the desire to oust President Velasco.1 SECRET Page 25 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET OPPOSITION TO PERU'S MILITARY GOVERNMENT GRQW'S The Peruvian Government's heavy-handed methods of dealing with its opposition are giving rise to increasing public resent- ment. At the same time, the res- ignation of the minister of agri- culture, General Jose Benavides, and the growing opposition to cur- rent economic policies in business circles may be creating a group that has both the means and the desire to oust President Velasco. The Lima press has been highly critical of the government for deporting the editor of a weekly news magazine and then closing down the publication. The action has been attacked by the leftist-leaning Lima Bar As- sociation, of which many of the President's closest advisers are leading members, as well as by the National Federation of Jour- nalists. The federation report- edly has decided to file a pro- test against this latest viola- tion of the freedom of the press before the United Nations human rights commission and interna- tional journalist organizations. Most of the political parties, too, have gone on record publicly denouncing the government's ac- tion, marking the first time since the October coup that so many in- fluential groups have publicly opposed the military government. The government's harsh reac- tion to student protest demonstra- tions has also created an issue on which its opponents believe they can take a stand without be- ing labeled as traitors. The brutal police action at Catholic University in Lima following a minor student demonstration has drawn loud protests. The batter- ing down of the university's front gate, which is considered a na- tional monument, throwing of tear gas into orderly classrooms, and the use of night sticks and cat- tle prods on students and faculty alike, prompted the primate of the Peruvian Catholic Church to issue a communique expressing his "most energetic condemnation and protest" against these "intoler- able outrages." I-se was joined in his protest by a good many of the political and ',journalistic groups that have supported the Velasco government. Businessmen's disenchantment with the administration is also growing. The food price controls announced this week and the agrar- ian reform law thot is expected are beginning to scare wealthy Peruvians. The food price con- trols, however, should be popular with the man in 1-be street who is beginning to fee:L'the pinch of higher prices and increasing un- employment. Even some of the President's closest advisers are unhappy with some,, of the govern- ment's policies, such as the pro- posed reorganization of the judi- ciary. SECRET Page 2 6 WEEKLY SUMMARY 2 0 Jun 6 9 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET The President apparently still has at least the tacit support of most of the army, and could probably head off any move against him at this time. This could change overnight, how- ever, if civilian opposition con- tinues to mount and if an effec- tive and capable leader presents himself to those in and out of the army who would like to see Velasco removed. ARGENTINE CABINET REORGANIZED Argentine President Ongania has completed the reorganization of the top echelon of his admin- istration. The new cabinet must deal immediately with several ma- jor problems, with student and labor unrest heading the list. On 18 June, Ongania filled the last post in his five-man cabinet. The key post of economy minister went to Jose Maria Dag- nino Pastore, a young Harvard- trained economist who had been serving as chief of the govern- ment's national development coun- cil. Outgoing minister Krieger Vasena reportedly recommended Dagnino Pastore, and there will probably be no great variation from the current economic program in the near future. The new min- ister is likely to grant some benefits to labor in order to al- leviate the unrest among workers, but these measures probably will not come close to meeting the de- mands of the militant unions. The new interior minister is retired General Francisco Imaz. He moved to the cabinet from the governorship of Buenos Aires Prov- ince, where Dagnino Pastore had served as his economy minister. There was some military opposition to the appointment of Imaz because of his alleged strong nationalist SECRET Page 2 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET and pro-Peronist orientation, but the exact degree and extent of this dissatisfaction is not clear. Ongania appointed Juan Mar- tin, a prominent livestock grower and proponent of increased trade, to head the Foreign Ministry. Martin held a number of public posts under the Frondizi adminis- tration, and has just been the ambassador to Japan. Another key position--that of secretary of education--was given to Dardo Perez Guilhou, rector of the National University of Cuyo in western Argentina. Perez, who will become education minister when that post is for- mally established, will have the difficult task of responding to the demands--some of them legiti- mate--of militant students, while at the same time preventing future disturbances like those that erupted in May. The appointment of Jose Ra- fael Caceres Monie as defense min- ister may be in response to a de- sire by high military officers to have a greater voice in the government's decisions. He is a brother of thedirector of the national param4]Litary police or- ganization, ani served briefly as secretary g;neral of the pres- idency in the Iilitary-backed Guido administration in 1962, following the overthrow of Fron- dizi. The fact that there were discussions in:high military cir- cles about Ongania's cabinet choices--and some opposition to them--suggests that the armed forces chiefs have begun sitting in judgment on'the government's decisions. This process of "de- liberation" is, one Ongania has worked hard to:eliminate during his three years in office, and its reactivation appears to indi- cate some decline in the Presi- dent's personal power and pres- tige. SECRET Page 2 8 WEEKLY SUMMARY 2 0 Jun 6 9 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET COPPER AND POLITICS #IIX IN CHILE As negotiations continue between the Chilean Government and the Anaconda Company over a basic revision of the tax and ownership arrangement agreed upon two years ago, politicians are rushing to introduce legislation in Congress that would national- ize the company outright. The government is attempting to work out an agreement whereby Chile would obtain majority con- trol in operations now wholly owned by Anaconda. In addition, a new tax procedure would be arranged with Anaconda, Cerro, and Kennecott to give the govern- ment a higher share in the reve- nues from the current high world price of copper. President Frei believes that unless he can come to an accept- able agreement with Anaconda and the other US companies, Congress will pass nationalization legis- lation. He does not wish to face the economic and political conse- quences of such action and is trying to gain popular support for his approach to full control over copper. Politicians, even those within his own party, are increasing the pressure on him, however. Nationalization is a very popular, emotional issue in Chile, and, with a presidential election only 14 months away, the political parties are trying to capitalize on it. The first official entrant in the nationalization sweepstakes was the Radical Party, which is trying to establish its leftist credentials so that the Social- ists and Communists will support a Radical presidential candidate. The Radical bill permits the gov- ernment to nationalize not only the Anaconda operations but also the private shares in the gov- ernment's joint ventures with Anaconda, Kennecott, and Cerro Corporation. The US Embassy cal- culates that the bill, as drafted, would leave Anaconda with nothing and the holders of shares in mixed companies with very little. A bill drafted by the Communists, Socialists, and break-away Chris- tian Democrats provides somewhat more but hardly adequate compen- sation, as does one submitted by moderate Christian Democrats for consideration by the party lead- ership. There is some disagreement within the copper workers' unions as to the benefits of nationali- zation. Copper workers always have received higher pay and more liberal fringe benefits than other groups. Many rank- and-file workers believe that nationalization would make them government workers and thus sub- ject them to lower rates of pay and increased bureaucratic in- terference. In spite of this sentiment, the leftist-controlled Copper Confederation probably will continue to support its recent resolution favoring na- tionalization becauseits leaders are solidly behind the position of the Marxist parties. SECRET Page 29 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 SECRET RULING DOMINICAN PARTY FACES SPLIT Vice President Lora's public refusal to support President Bala- guer if he seeks re-election next May increases chances for an open break in party ranks. Last week the vice president shattered any semblance of party unity by categorically refusing to accept second place on the Reformista ticket again. He fur- ther stated that he would not sup- port Balaguer's re-election "under any circumstances," a major depar- ture from his previous public position that he would respect the party's decision. Lora's declarations are an outgrowth of the intensive inter- nal party struggle under way around the country. Since the be- ginning of the year, Lora has been actively lobbying for his party's presidential nomination; supporters of Balaguer have taken countermeasures. In Santiago, the nation's second largest city, a municipal council meeting last month degenerated into a brawl between supporters of the two men that was broken up by police. Other city councils, including that in the capital, have suf- fered similar divisions. The President's own equivocal public stance has been partly re- sponsible for t:he: divisive infight- ing. Balaguer has hinted he will be "available" for renomination, but Lora is apparently convinced that substantial opposition will dissuade the President from seeking a second term. Although Balaguer has pub- licly characterized Lora as a "capable" candidate and qualified for the presidency, his actions belie that stat4ament. Lora's decision to shift the battle to the public forum probably reflects, in part, the success of Balaguer's backstage maneuvering. Opposition' parties on both the left and right, which have already focused; on "no re-election" as the overriding campaign issue, would be emboldened by a public split in Reformista ranks. Anti- Balaguer forces, both in the government and outside it, are apparently confident that they can demonstrate widespread public opposition to $alaguer's seeking a second term. The political unrest generated by their efforts will probably be accen- tuated as the elections approach. SECRET Page 30 WEEKLY SUMMARY 20 Jun 69 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2008/09/29: CIA-RDP79-00927AO07100070001-8