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December 21, 2016
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May 22, 2008
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June 25, 1971
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Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY SUMMARY State Dept. review completed Secret 25 June 1971 No. 0376/71 Copy Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 SECRET CONTENTS (Information as of noon EDT, 24 June 1971) FAR EAST Page Indochina: MR 1-The Enemy's Summer Target . . . . . . . 2 Laos: On the Plaine Again . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Cambodia: Some Forward Military Motion . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Burma to Hold Party Congress . . . ..i . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 South Korea: Party Developments Following the General Elections . . . . . . . . 6 USSR: Spring Peace Offensive:Eontinues . . . . 7 Communist Imports of Free-World Oil Are Rising . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 East German Party Congress. uietly Closes . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Fluepean~tieilrvd?1~Ioaoritiols 13 . . . . . . . 14 Egypt-Israel: Pes/imism on an Interim Settlement . 15 Tanzania: Exodus of Asians . 16 Guinea: Arrests Continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Pakistan-India:; The Refugee Flow Slackens 18 Ceylon: Insurgency Situation Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 7 'SkR?Y`Ml'fiM"'Ma,"Y's , a Ith666 h e regretted the Asians lean hg=;because it would "damage. the'cobntr,he would not star7ri-ti titerr_W y. CHAD: The last of the special French military units sent two years ago at the government's request to counter the Muslim insurgency have left Chad. Some 2,500 French military advisers and regional intervention troops permanently stationed at Fort Lamy rerna'in in the country, however. With their helpv'and continued French financing, President,=Tombalbaye's weak regime will attempt to :provide security in the troubled Muslim regions and deliver promised administra- tive reforrrms and development projects necessary to help restore peace-a large order for resource- poor Chad. 25X The over-all level of dissidence has dropped markedly since 1969. Central Chfad, where a limited settlement has been eiifectecl, is partic- ularly calm at present, buVthe north and east remain more recalcitran;tThe Toubou tribesmen in the north appafly still receive modest aid from Libya, and``the impending rainy season in the central-"and eastern areas- could spark 25X1 renewed fighting there as government forces are immobilized. Guinea: Arrests Continue President Sekou Toure continues to sustain the tense atmosphere that has prevailed since the Portuguese-backed attacks of last November. His belief that new attacks from bases in neighboring states are now being planned with the connivance of traitors at home has led to a new spate of arrests and to tight restrictions on the movement of foreigners within Guinea. "Confessions" obtained from those already imprisoned have implicated a widening circle of Guineans. A sharp increase in new arrests and a further tightening of security measures have been noted since 15 June when a special investigative commission reported that only one quarter of an alleged fifth column had been rounded up. Toure's present "purification" campaign, like previous ones, has focused on businessmen, tech- nicians, and others who have come under sus- picion because of their close contacts with for- eigners-particularly Westerners. Hardest hit have been officials within the economic ministries that figured prominently in a cabinet reshuffle on 20 June. The normal functioning of the diplomatic community and of foreign technical aid missions has been hampered as Guineans avoid close con- tacts. One casualty has been the US Peace Corps program, renewed only last year after having been abruptly terminated in late 1966 during a strained period in Guinea-US relations. The current phase- out stems not from bad bilateral relations, but from Toure's obsession with security and his heightened mistrust of foreigners operating within the country. Although heads of the technical min- istries wanted the US program to continue, dominant influence now is wielded by party mili- tants in charge of internal security, who were opposed. Since the raid on Conakry last November, Toure has used almost every public and private SECRET Page 17 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 SECRET occasion to warn Guineans and friendly govern- ments of what he claims is a continuing threat of external attacks, particularly from "mercenary" bases in Portuguese Guinea. In addition to Por- tugal, he has singled out West Germany, with which he broke relations last January, as one of the main plotters. Two African states, Senegal and Ivory Coast, also are charged with aiding the "imperialists" by not denying use of their ter- ritory to anti-Toure elements. To help forestall the attacks he believes will come, Toure has threatened immediately to shoot those now imprisoned for complicity in last year's raid, and Pakistan-India: The Refugee Flow Slackens The Pakistani Government, attempting to present a more favorable international image, has now decided to allow foreign newsmen to travel freely in East Pakistan. Together with its earlier decision to let foreign relief officials enter the province, this could put restraints on further punitive action by the army. The average daily outflow of refugees has fallen to a little over 15,000 from a high of 100,000 a few weeks ago. President Yahya has publicly promised that members of the "minority community"-the Hindus-will be given full pro- tection if they return from India, and the govern- ment has set up several camps to handle re- turnees. Although a few thousand refugees have recrossed the border, it is unlikely that many of the nearly six million East Bengalis will leave India soon. In a further step to court international opinion, President Yahya is expected to announce on 28 June his program for eventually turning the government over to civilians. He may well, how- ever, delay implementation of his plans for some time. to take offensive action against Portuguese Guinea at the first sign of an invasion. Despite Toure's convictions, there is no inde- pendent evidence that foreign-backed attacks on Guinea are imminent. Portugal, however, prob- ably maintains contact with the elements of the anti-Toure National Liberation Front of Guinea (FLNG) who also were involved in the November operation. the organiza- significant move. tion would require substantia oreign financial and logistical support before it could mount any Islamabad's attempts to project a more favorable image have not yet had much interna- tional effect. The Western aid consortium has put off any decision on new economic commitments until prospects for a political settlement between East and West Pakistan improve. The donor na- tions were decisively influenced by a very nega- tive report from a World Bank/International Monetary Fund team that recently visited both parts of the country. The team reported wide- spread disruption of economic, commercial, and governmental processes, physical destruction and disruption of transportation and communications, food shortages, and a pervasive fear that is in- hibiting any return to normal conditions in East Pakistan. The UN high commissioner for refugees announced this week that sizable new financial aid contributions had been received. The UN's relief program continues to suffer from organiza- tional problems, however, and officials have been meeting to formulate an "action and coordination plan." In the meantime, India and Pakistan con- tinue to accuse each other of serious border SECRET Page 18 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 violations, and New Delhi has again warned that unless the refugee problem is solved soon, it will Ceylon: Insurgency Situation Report The government appears increasingly con- fident in its handling of the insurgency, but prob- lems still remain. Earlier this month, the nightly curfew was shortened from nine to six hours, and Prime Min- ister Bandaranaike announced a second and "final" amnesty period during which insurgents could surrender. The government claims that about 6,000 rebels gave themselves up during a similar period in early May. Only a few hundred insurgents, however, apparently did so during the second amnesty. Rehabilitating the 12,000 rebels now in detention centers may prove a serious problem. The government's indoctrina- tion program seems to have had little effect as yet, and officials seem uncertain of how to proceed. One reflection of the largely quiescent na- ture of the insurgency at present is the small number of incidents reported. Although the rebels occasionally attack government and police installations, most of their efforts consist of at- tempted robberies of individuals. The army com- mander recently estimated that there were only about 100 insurgents at large outside Colombo, and that they were scattered over five of the island's 22 districts. He did not consider this small number a threat, although he appeared concerned over the unknown but possibly large number of insurgents lying low in Colombo. The government has taken advantage of the emergency to widen its control of the press. Henceforth, a censor must approve any stories covering cabinet proceedings and actions or any matter "considered or alleged to be considered by any minister or ministry." Previously, the govern- ment had imposed censorship on all newspaper editorials, arousing protests from many papers, including those affiliated with the prime minis- ter's Trotskyite and Communist coalition part- ners. Presumably, nearly all of the Ceylonese press will be unhappy with the new regulations, which could in practice be extremely restrictive. Although Mrs. Bandaranaike can claim that the insurgency requires this increasingly stringent control, she probably views the current situation in part as presenting an opportunity to hobble some old enemies who have been critical of her in the past and who were partly responsible for the downfall of her previous government in 1964. Mrs. Bandaranaike is also considering eco- nomic reforms, such as ceilings on land holdings and incomes, that she believes would be respon- sive to some demands of the insurgents. Also, contemplated charges for the country's presently free medical and educational services would be a SECRET Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 SECRET small step toward improving the government's capability to pay for its massive social welfare expenditures, a prime ingredient of its budgetary problems. At this time, however, Mrs. Bandara- naike does not plan the politically volatile step of reducing the subsidized rice ration WESTERN HEMISPHERE Copper and Politics in Chile Copper and politics continue to be over- riding concerns in Chile, providing President Al- lende with both opportunities and problems as he moves to transform Chile into a socialist state as smoothly and quickly as possible. Exploiting the to control the country is preparing to take over ng-standing Chilean desire major resource, Allende ompletely and soon the. extensive copper mining o" owned and managed by erations still partially conda. Chile apparently will tions for compensation until t of begin negotia- operations are nationalized under a constitution that will become law on 12 July. In amendment effort to pvestors, demonstrate a selective approach to US Chile will probably announce at the same agreement to buy out the Cerro Corpora e an Allende has preferred tapproach copper nationalization carefully j "order to avoid alarm- ing potential Western sources of investment and credit, which Chile needs to replace US capital. Extremist Soc~a1 sts, however, objected to the terms of theCerro agreement, which Allende had approve,01 and have stalled its announcement since-,20 May. In turn, their more cautious Com- nru ist rivals in the Popular Unity (UP) governing ttcoaIition apparently feel obliged to come up with schemes to regain the initiative on this vital issue. A barrage of vituperation against Anaconda and Kennecott has become a daily feature of the progovernment media; both are accused of delib- erate mismanagement that nullifies any need for indemnification. The Communist daily is publish- ing a series recounting "twelve great copper scandals" allegedly perpetrated against Chile's interest by those companies and the United States. The opposition is unlikely to challenge Allende on the copper nationalization, although some congressmen have blamed the government for conditions that cause _coper production OppoOa:, '1=i parties are, however, taking an increas4 y ressive stance on issues where the Prt nt and his supporters are more vulnerable. The most telling criticism has been that the administration's coddling of leftist extremists has created an atmosphere of lawlessness with wide- spread effects, including the recent murders of ghristian Democratic Party (PDC) leader E4 ~ undo Perez Zujovic and several policemen. Acc ations by the UP that rightists and the US were irolved in the Perez shooting have boom- eranged, e~gecially with the revelation that one of the assassinas released last February under an amnesty granted,, to imprisoned leftists by Al- Another of those released by the President as "misguided idealists," despite criminal charges against them, is the chief of Allende's bodyguard. SECRET Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 SECRET Opposition spokesmen argue that this irregular security farce should be replaced by the regular police who., traditionally guard the president. A bill to augment the police forces with men of the government's, choice was recently defeated in Congress, but several high-ranking officers of the traditionally anti-Marxist uniformed police, the carabineros, were forced to retire. Efforts by the PDC and conservative op- position parties to~cooperat6 more closely are still plagued by mutual. distrust and personal ambi- tion. They plan tol support a single candidate against the UP candidate in the by-election on 18 July for a vacant legislative seat and have defeated the UP candidate inthe politically important elec- tion for rector of.' the 'University of Chile. The opposition majority's ouster of the UP leadership of the Chamberof Deputies,, however, foundered on 22 June when the conservative Nationalists broke with the PDC and Democratic Radicals to help re-elect a non-Marxist UP candidate as Cham- ber president. Leftist young Christian Democrats who want to work with Allende are 'also doing all they can to break up common opposition ac- 25X1 tivity. SECRET Me,tos eiancos (cernen xJ EI Lenient J s./Kennetoth~ Page 21 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 SECRET Brazil Cautiously Enforces the New Sea Law The government is continuing restrained en- ratitHarrY~`r"rskacorrfr._~rtation. Foreign forcement of its 200-mile territorial seas limit by craft, I zweacer, apparently continue to fish the area, warning fishing boats out of the area, rather than and a serious incident could easily occur. taking them into custody. Government officials have indicated that their policy is the result of an intention to apply the new law on the first occasion against fishing boats- op-erating within 12 miles-rather than 200-of the coast. They believe Brazil's exclusive fishing rights are more generally accepted within the narrower zone. The US, for instance, recognizes a three-mile territorial sea and a 12-mile fishing zone. A Na- tionalist Chinese boat seized on 16 June was re- leased with a warning because, although it was picked up when only 10 miles from shore, it was negotiations with the government of Trinidad, determined to have been fishing approximately 190_. whose shrimping industry is endangered by the new miles from the coast. Brazilian regulations, will reportedly begin in July. s s ftie Ias twa~ w k5`fta ri rg The French have also indicated an intention to harass ~Brarifkt-art-strips-arrdplana tf1 ' enter into bilateral negotiations in the near fu- U Lboats-- av - vvit t&4.w.rrAr?G t wate+ s4e tpo- to re. Panama: Priest's Disappearance Troubles'the Government The disappearance 'on 9 June of a popular young Colombian priest who had opposed the Torrijos regime has kicked up the biggest public outcry against the government in its two and a half years in power. The priest, Father Gallegos, was apparently kidnaped and killed by the National Guard. e t rH a ,::tile popular belief is that he had antagRon zed Lthe gov- ernment by casting officia.lj,-refs 'm efforts in a bad light or, alternativel; th tf he had offended mem- bers of Torrijos family who owned land in V_eagu srro~iceherehewo.rl?i. The_rreg r to ktas sed~l p essive,= easures ila t, et past=aga~t t ic`t mist =a wef a to-4Rtun idat :op- poaer4 In March 1970, fvzexaample, it arrested and exiled a Spanish Jesuit whetrams=rnae pad4o- brad>gcas er ticaJ o? :the regirrre Nevertheless rt has gengrallyy exercised some:.: degree of restraint 25X1 On the diplomatic front, the Brazilians are continuing to seek support and to encourage na- tions to negotiate fishing agreements. The Yugoslav vice minister of foreign affairs, on a visit to Brazil in late May, stated his support of the Brazilian position in principle, noting that every country has a right to determine its own territorial waters. The foreign minister of Ecuador, which also has a 200-mile claim, strongly endorsed a joint stand with Brazil during his visit to Brasilia last week. Fishing The government, surprised by the agitation over the incident, has gone to great lengths to deny its involvement. Its attempts, however, to portray itself as a friend of the priest and its halfhearted efforts to blame right-wing elements or the US have severely damaged its credibility with the populace. The incident comes at a particularly bad time for the government. Since April, Torrijos has tried to reinforce his leftist, populist image and has re- doubled efforts to mobilize support that could be used against the US in connection with canal nego- tiations. Having consistently portrayed itself as a revolutionary regime protecting the interests of the "little man" rather than the oligarchy, the govern- ment is particularly embarrassed at having handed the opposition a popular issue on which students, SECRET Page 22 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 SECRET goat, and in the future he may be more circumspect in the use of "extralegal" methods. The establishment by the Bolivian Labor Cen- tral of a "military command" and its announced intention to organize a national militia are certain to have an impact throughout: the armed forces. These actions could cause-even more military-men to.. feel---a- need- to move against Torres./- SECRET Page 23 WEEKLY SUMMARY 25 Jun 71 peasants, the church, and business can unite. Torrijos may have to come up with a suitable scape- Bolivia: Torres Hangs On Government denunciations of "rightist" coup plotting, the imposition of a state of emergency, and the reconvening of the extreme left's unofficial Popular Assembly provide the backdrop for Presi- dent Torres' continued efforts to secure extreme leftist support. Meanwhile, the political atmosphere in La Paz remains tense and uncertain. Torres is trying to establish an identity of interests between his regime and the extreme leftist-dominated labor and student groups that are behind the assembly by focusing attention on the common threat posed by "rightist" opposition con- spirators. The ingredients for a showdown between the "popular forces" and the government remain, however. The President has not yet reacted to re- newed claims of governing power by the Popular Assembly, which began meeting on Tuesday. The assembly's sessions also revealed internal friction among its sponsors, who remain divided by ideology and personal ambition. Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927A008900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2008/05/22 : CIA-RDP79-00927AO08900010001-5