WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9
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Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE State Dept. review completed WEEKLY SUMMARY Secret 5 November 1971 No. 0395/71 Copy Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 CONTENTS (Information as of 1200 EST, 4 November 1971) India-Pakistan: The Developing Crisis . . . . . . . . . y`. . . . . . . . . 1 Soviet Globetrotters: Another Chapter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Communist China: Legacy of a Purge .,, 6 Finland: The Government Parties amble 17 Poland Emphasizes Brighter Aspe is of Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Yugoslavs Resist New Stabilize ' n Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Mexico-US: Talks Begm 19 Canada: Where to Tur . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Venezuela: An Issue r the Opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Guatemala: An Endo Emergency Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Tunisia: Split idens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Israel: Govefnment Takes Hard Line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Mauritius: ,,Government Shaken . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 NOTES:, Philippines, Peru, Turkey; Syria-Jordan SECRET Page i WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 25X1 25X6 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 India-Pakistan: The Developing Crisis India and Pakistan traded artillery exchanges and charges of border and airspace violations this week. The exchanges have heightened tensions and helped create an atmosphere in which either country could trigger a war. At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Gandhi on her current for- eign tour has sought-so far without great suc- cess-to generate international support for her position that Pakistan must be forced to negotiate with the leaders of Bangla Desh for a real, as opposed to a "cosmetic," solution to the crisis. For its part, Islamabad may be having some suc- cess in efforts to win international sympathy by seeming to show greater flexibility and receptivity to suggestions for resolving the crisis than has New Delhi. On 31 October, Indian Defense Minister Ram said that war was "imminent" and asserted that, if attacked, India would drive the Pakistanis deep into their own territory. The following day, Defense Secretary Krishnamurthi admitted that regular Indian forces, as distinct from the para- military Border Security Force, had been in a 24-hour battle against Pakistani gun positions near the East Pakistan border. The defense secre- tary did not deny that Indian troops had crossed the border, stating only that they had been suc- cessful in silencing the guns which, he said, had been firing on the village of Kamalupur in the eastern state of Tripura for 11 days. The Indians may have publicized the encounter-probably the most serious clash involving regular troops of the two countries since the trouble began last March- in order to put their version of the incident on record in case a Pakistani counterattack was provoked. Mrs. Gandhi is adopting a firm and uncom- promising position during her foreign tour. Most Pakistani units are based fairly close to the border even in peacetime, but some important Indian units are hundreds of miles distant. Given the tense situation, Mrs. Gandhi maintains that an Indian withdrawal would put her troops at a great disadvantage. While Mrs. Gandhi continues to assert that New Delhi will not initiate hostilities, the Indians appear to be relying primarily on a show of force to achieve their ends. The Soviets, in effect, are cooperating in this effort by sending numerous diplomatic and military representatives to New Delhi for "consultations" under the terms of the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty. The Soviets may hope that their highly visible diplomatic activity will help stabilize the situation by acting as a warning to Pakistan and China, and as a domestic boost for Mrs. Gandhi, who is increasingly vul- nerable to criticism for "vacillation" in the face of Pakistani provocations. Though Moscow is still advising moderation, it may be becoming more resigned to the pos- sibility of war. T-He gigin New Dealt has told--US asst'-o-fftcials that the Soviets-are iq -tF a paces of pr?vtctirsg bst ntial arms de- SECRET Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 S.LUKr;'1' Yahya this week claimed a somewhat similar Chinese commitment to Pakistan. Chinese leaders, however, attempting to avoid heightening ten- sions, have played their support to Islamabad in low key. Peking hopes to improve its relations with India while maintaining its present high level of influence in Islamabad. The Pakistanis have reacted to Indian pres- sure with diplomatic initiatives designed to cast New Delhi in an unfavorable light and contrast its attitude with Islamabad's conciliatory approach. President Yahya has offered to consider troop withdrawals, and he has made several appeals for UN mediation. Islamabad has been suggesting for some time that it may raise its problems with India in the Security Council once Peking is seated. Recently, the Pakistanis have again been sounding out council members on the possibility of such a meeting even though they recognized that it would produce no more than bitter verbal exchanges. On 30 October, Yahya made another appeal for all refugees to return to their homes and in contrast to India's negative position on the subject, suggested posting UN observers on both sides of the border. Page 2 The Indians may have decided that, in order to retain their present level of control, they will have to increase support and guidance for a more active guerrilla program. During his visit to New Delhi last week, Firyubin reportedly refrained from advising the Indians to curtail support to the guerrillas. Q ~.g .tQQ:-o.Yugoslav::char.ge, the Sati s ,.recognized that India views the Mukti B i as the . rfnci aI ''forcin- factor','.:to solve iu di mma. ecently, the Bangla Desh governmer25X1 announced that it had set up-with "expert advice from some friendly countries"-a mechanism to control a "liberation war" and to guide political and economic activity in "liberated areas." Meanwhile, the effectiveness of guerrilla op- erations deep inside East Pakistan is growing. Guerrilla activities have disrupted most land trans- port and have made water transport dangerous and expensive. Consequently, the jute and t25X1 industries are operating well below normal. Many basic consumer goods are in short supply in the cities and nonexistent in the countryside. / SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Soviet G o e ro ers: not er apter The mome,um of Soviet Westpolitik last week carried Party`'ecretary Leonid Brezhnev to France. He probably r'agards the visit as successful despite the fact that th M"Principles of Coopera- tion" concluded between''\the two nations fell short of the friendship treaty'e sought. Brezhnev performed competently, if no ?vjpectacularly, his first visit to the West as Si viet leadexR He emphasized Moscow's current peacpro ism and polished his new image as protagonis detente, to counter that of author of tfle 4 rezhnev Doctrine. French President Geor s Pompidou succss- fully enhanced the Franc=Soviet special relatio#,- ship as a balance to thttention being given West\ German Ostpolitik. ompidou managed to sur- round the visit h an atmosphere of good will and accomplisl ent while giving no ground on basic politic'issues. His statements and those of Foreign Mfhister Debre carefully placed France within tkhe Atlantic Alliance and indicated Paris' willingfiess to moderate the pace of detente. Although offering little change in basic posi- tions, the "principles" provided Brezhnev with the trappings of success, allowing him to return to a' number of sectors; the moderniza- 11 t in of Soviet light industry by Frech companies is singled out for par '"cular consideration. It seems doubt ul that the new pact adds sig nifican Jy to a comprehensive Franco- Soviet epoperation agreement that has been in ffect for five years; imple- mentationtstill depends on particular projects ag'r ed to by French firms and Soviet ererprises. The agreement whereby Renault will supply $216 million worth of machinery and engineering services for Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Moscow with a advance the Fra call for more expansion called document purporting to b-Soviet relationship. Clauses ateral meetings and for further exchanges on several levels. The uniqug focused largely on Europe and Conference on European Security. No mention was made in either of the docu- ents regarding the linkage of Bonn's ratification of its treaties with Moscow and Warsaw with the final signing of the Berlin accord. A Quai spokes- man did state, however, that the two countries had reached an agreement in principle to support the simultaneous signing of the treaties and the accord. Both leaders extracted domestic political gain from the visit. Soviet media gave extensive coverage to the visit, and lauded the party secre- tary personally. Pompidou advanced his own domestic political objectives by rolling out the ed carpet for Brezhnev. It will now be more d ,ficult for the French Communists to criticize go rnment policies effectively and to encourage the arty's trade union arm to agitate for strikes again the regime. On result of the meetings was the signing of a ten-yea .agreement that provides for each coun- try to he build industrial plants in the other. Prospects fc11cooperation are deemed favorable in Approved For Release 2008/05/07 the ma truck plant in the USSR reporte ly was signed under pressure from t e French Government. A Renault s okesman has said that the company h neither the men nor the capacity to i,yolve itself heavily in the project. Franco-Sov N trade, which is slated to double tween 1969 and 1974, nevertheless witremain a small part of the over-all co nerce of both countries. The primary factor restrict- ing an appreciable incree in this trade is the limited ability ! either country to provide what tli other CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 friendliness that appeared to characterize all aspects of the five-day visit, it seems probable that the talks between the two.,46aders did not fully resolve long-standing dispe1eements relating, for instance, to proper reydlutionary tactics in Latin America or to Cubans' management of Soviet economic assistance. hese matters have per- sistently troubled ations between Moscow and Havana, though , ey may be less pressing than when relatiop were at a low point during Ko- In what was probably a dual effi Xt to get a better reading on the state of the int 'rGerman talks and to assure the East Germans th. t they had not been forgotten in his round of meetings with Brandt, Tito, and Pompidou, Brezhnev stopped in East Germany for two days on his w'@y home. The Soviets have shown impatience witt the slow progress of the inter-German negotia- tions, and the Soviet leader certainly stressed Moscow's desire for a prompt windup. East Ger- man leader Honecker demonstrated Pankow's de- fensiveness on this issue by stressing in a formal toast to Brezhnev that East Germany was doi "everything it can" to bring about a po ive conclusion of the talks. Consistent with e ef- forts of the junketing Soviet leadership sewhere, the final communiques called for th arliest pos- sible convening of a European curity confer- ence. The unusually I Vg joint Soviet-Cuban com- muniqu> issued on 1 November described Ko- sygin's visit to Cub from 26 to 30 October as an unqualified success. Despite the warmth and Page 4 sygin's visi -our years ago. ere is reason to believe that the Kosygin may, have been the product of last-minute The communique di .indicate, however, that an earlier invitation to Cato to visit the Soviet Union had been reiterated by, Kosygin and was "gratefully accepted. No hint' were given con- cerning the timing of the visit, which would be SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Castro's third trip to thUSSR and his first since The communique men ns "US-encouraged hostile actions," including vi lations of airspace .uaai.q"&gests that he is no closer to ob such backing than he was before. It there remains unlikely that Castro will provoke an in cident by moving against the base or by attempt- ing to intercept a reconnaissance aircraft. I n addition, the c -nique pressed sympathy with the " "ving of the Panamanian people to exe QI lull sovereignty over the whole off thy, ional territory." This statement may and may reflect the work of Panama's Communist Party, whose exiled leaders have been working industriously to get Soviet and East European Communists to focus on the canal treat is sue. SECRET can military base at Guantana Page 5 WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 :r,)xr, I Communist China: Legacy ofaPurge The impression that a struggle involving Lin Piao and other top-ranked military leaders is be- deviling the ruling politburo has been reinforced. When Yang Cheng-wu was purged in 196 he was accused, among other things-.of plot ing to oust several of China's major military, regional commanders. The charge was also lh,At Yang was acting on behalf of a still higher 15 thority, whose identity has never been revealed: it is possible that/an effort to bring down Lin Piao by linking him' with Yang Cheng-wu may have reached some sort of climax in August or September, creating a Page 6 crisis at the top of the military structure. The prospect that the Yang Cheng-wu affair is an important clue in the current leadership mystery gains some support from the fact that two of the 25X1 ranking military figures whose political positions have been in question in recent months-the com- mander of the air force and the political com- missar of the navy-worked closely with Yang Cheng-wu during the radical phase of the Cultural Revolution. The current chief of staff, Huang Yung-sheng, has also been out of the public eye for some; time now and his future is equally China Pictorial Cover: A Distribution Problem SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET questionable. He succeeded Yang Cheng-wu as 25X1 chief of staff. the orthtdox formula calling for unity around the parfy central committee ''with Chair- man Mao Ts0-tung as head and Vice Chairman Lin If the long-simmering disputes within the Piao as ,,the deputy" has been amended by omit- politburo indeed took a more serious turn lately, ting ,ire reference to Lin. There also have been no they do not appear to be settled. An English- ref-0'rences to Lin's name in the Chinese press language edition-but not the?,Chinese-language .since 8 October, and foreign governments, acting version-of China Pictorial beating Lin Piao's under guidance from the Chinese, are no longer picturE on the cover and containing pictures CAF citing Lin's name in messages of greetings or in nearly all of the missing Chinese leaders-ba Aud- toasts to the health of Chinese leaders. denly appeared in Hong Kong. Local Comp'fu,jists appear to be calling attention to its avaijability. T -le peculiar treatment accorded the dis- tribution of the magazine probably does not indicate that the missing lders-including Lin- have been exonerated, bud`rather appears to signal 25X1 that there may be several political cross-currents still flowing in Peki"fig. Furthermore, the possi- bility That Lin's alth was a precipitating factor in the present uation is still open.\ While the political maneuvering seems to go on backstage, the position of Premier Chou En-lai has -been stable as have the policies associated with hiri. SECRET Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET Indochina FAR EAST South Vietnam: The Viet Cong Takes Stock The Corirnunists have made a realistic assess- ment of their failure once again to manipulate or even significantly~,influence the elections in South Vietnam. A seriespf reports suggest that they are thinking seriously A put new ways to rekindle an effective opposition ow that the elections are over and President l`t ieu appears to be in a stronger position than before. The first hint that the Communists recognizld the need for a new political approach came fegm a provincial level briefing of Communist cadre in South Vietnam in early October. the brieting tool< pessimistic tone on the postelection situation, ack1 pwledging poor Communist performance in the elections for both the Lower House and the presidency. It warned dent T1 lieu from consolidating his pos-ttion. Tye Viet Cong hierarchy was even considering Ahe creation of a new political front as one pVs 1bil- ity, according to this source. authoritative article in the party jour-\ nal from Hanoi have taken a si tlar line. The article analyzed the current tion as one in which diplomacy and politics ould contribute significantly to Communistijectives in South Vietnam and appeared to c for new and more imaginative political initiat'. es. It talked at length about the need to take vantage of dissension within "enemy ranks" a borrowed heavily from the prescriptions of p ty leader Le Duan to re- mind cadres that the, must not "wait passively for contradictions t?+?'develop." a[ I o the reports point to rene e efforts by the Communists to ally themselves with important non-Communist opposition forces in South Vietnam. The possibil- ity that the Communists are thinking about creat- ing a new front organization cannot be ruled out. The Viet Cong are great believers in the value of reorganization, even if the reshuffling really does not result in more effective strategy, and postelec- tion tactics could take this route. The past failures of the Liberation Front and the National Alliance to generate any effective or widespread political opposit; n to the Saigon government, however, mightwell discourage the Communists from trying ~Ifis approach again. In spite of talk about noVC sanding idle and waiting for oppor- tunities, ommunist leadership probably rec- ognizes Tat without some radical change in the over-all/political or military situation in South Vietn,m, a new "front" has little chance of mak- ing ny more mileage than its predecessors. The thane that runs consistently through all the re- rts is Communist recognition that the recent -selections constitute a watershed-a real setback to declining Communist political fortunes. The Com- munist response appears to be renewed deter- mination to come up with new ways to make their presence felt politically in South Vietnam. President Thieu's inauguration last weekend went off smoothly despite the threats of some radical opposition groups to try to disrupt the ceremony. The radicals apparently were discour- Vged by heavy government security precautions. T ese precautions probably also were responsible inart for the failure of the Communists to try to harks either the inauguration or the National Day cerernies the following day. With Thieu beginning his second term, South Vietnamhe politicians are speculating about a possible g6tyernment reorganization and changes in policy. Rumors continue to circulate about high-level shifts in the government and military, and a cabinet reshuffle may be in the offing. But no one knows with certainty when Thieu will act or precisely what appointments will be made. Leaders of several political parties are reas- sessing their positions vis-a-vis the government, and most would be receptive to an overture from SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET Thieu. Some of these politicians were alienated bi .Thieu's election tactics, but in recognition of Thieu's.. relatively strong postele they are",Willing to commit t President, hod+g they can p in the new gove realize they have Ii opposition. The the political f Saigon pol peace y speculation in the repa+~ off an~ar nt+tr rewires #haL an-. Other effects of the flood a been largely brought under control. By October the coun- try's main rail arteries re back in service but there was still consi able damage to secondary road systems. Mo industrial operations probably were resume ell before the end of September, although ew plants were idle due to transporta- tion tlenecks. The regime appears to have act quickly and effectively to stem hazards t -the-out-break of epidemics.. North Vietnam: Flood Damage Assessed The effects of the floods may hamper agri- cultural output for the next year and increase Hanoi's dependence on food imports. It is now clear that the regime views agricultural prospects with much less optimism than was the case a month ago. To make up for rice losses, the minis- ter of domestic trade has announced the planting of a "winter crop" in addition to the spring and autumn crops. The winter crop will consist largely of secondary crops that can be harvested in 50 to 80 days. Success will depend in part on the extent to which the regime can use miracle rice strains, which can be planted some two months later than traditional rice strains, for the regular spring crop. side e e ort wi a 'red--to , - store the irrigation system. A large nq.mbijr of pumping stations appear to h a e-~b-edn damaged, and aerial photography boW'extensive breaching and silting of irri ri canals. Reconstruction of irrigation facilities may take up to a year, in whiehase both the fifth- and tenth-month rice crow, .. &7-otifd be affected. - keg .+rger}cy of Cambodia: Tug of War on Route 6 The fighting along Route 6, north of Skoun, has entered the second week with the Com- munists maintaining pressure against a number of Cambodian positions scattered along the highway. Although they have taken some heavy casualties and have been plagued by supply problems, most government units have stood up well in the face of the attacks. Most of the action has centered on the sec- tion of Route 6 between the villages of Prakham and Rumlong where, in the first days of the fighting, the Communists isolated eight Cam- bodian battalions and gained control of a four- mile stretch of the highway. Intense ground fire and poor weather complicated initial attempts to resupply these units, particularly those in the vicinity of Rumlong. In addition to their attacks and ground probes, the Communists staged their first gas attack of the war, which temporarily incapacitated 100 men in one Cambodian bat- talion. SECRET F n position selves to the an important role the same time, they eal leverage with Thieu ng alliances with the Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY play both sides of Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 bt UKJ'1* Kompong Thom spond= ing to the situation. A Khmer Kronelief force accompanied by armored personf carriers had moved from Skoun through P ham and Tang Kouk to within a few miles P:Rumlong. At that point, however, its advae was halted by an enemy ambush. A se O d Khmer Krom relief column from Kom ng Thmar ran into even stiffer enemy opp. ition as it tried to push down Route 6. Inveral days of sharp fighting on Rumlong's r rthern outskirts, these forces had 30 killed and 200 wounded-extremely high casual- ties fo>Kthe Cambodian war. Communist losses repe atso `high. The government's ability to move reinforce- ments and supplies overland from Phnom Penh to the Route 6 front is being severely hampered by an extensively damaged bridge on the highway, some 12 miles south of Skoun. Cambodian en- gineers have estimated that it will take a month to put the bridge back into operation. I n the mean- time, a makeshift ferry of limited capacity is being used as a substitute. The current round of attacks along Route 6 probably is motivated in part by the Communist desire to re-establish control over the highway to facilitate the movement of supplies to forces west of the road now that better weather is ap- proaching. They probably would like to under- mine Phnom Penh's morale by inflicting sharp setbacks to what has been the Cambodians' best- organized military operation. It is possible, more- over, that the Communists are seeking to pre- empt any government operations in the direction of important enemy bases and supply points east of Route 6 or into the nearby Communist-con- CAMBODIA: Route 6 Area Page 11 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 25X6 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 SECRET EUROPE Moscow Adjusts to Peking at the UN The USSR is wasting no time in preparing for the arrival of the Communist Chinese delegation to the UN and its affiliated organizations. Remarks made by Soviet officials in New York and Geneva indicate that Moscow is supporting full Chinese participation in UN-sponsored activities, hoping thereby tc prevent an extension of the Sino-Soviet dispute to the halls of the world forum. Whatever its private views on the desirability and consequences of Peking's entry into the UN, Moscow's public posture is that the vote of the General Assembly on 25 October marked a victory for common sense and a defeat for the US. The Soviet deputy permanent representative to the UN observed on 28 October that Peking's entry created a "new situation for all of us." He suggested that meetings of the Security Council and the Four- Power talks on the Middle East should be delayed until the arrival of the Chinese. He explained that the Soviets did not want to prevent meetings over any long period of time, but since neither the Se- curity Council nor the Four Powers were dealing with urgent matters at this time, the Chinese should be given the courtesy of a chance to participate. In this way, the Soviets hope to delay reactivation of the talks, from which Moscow expects little, as well as to make a gesture toward Peking. TJ; the-US aic S-R-as co-chairmen of the.conferencc. Moscow apparently does not want:e~cert-fissure on Peking to join t,.-? ,,,,,tJ~as~arr? ament forum but is prepared to room for the Chinese to share the ,.participate. Soviet Permanent Representative Roshchin mentioned that the Chinese would have to be consulted regarding the Soviet proposal for a World Disarmament Con- ference. Soviet news media have welcomed the seating of China as a "step toward realism." Although the Soviets voted for the Albanian resolution, they did no active lobbying to line up supporters. During the debate, Malik spoke in favor of seating Peking, but he acknowledged that Soviet-Chinese relations have assumed at times a "sharply ideological and political character." Indeed, Soviet support for Peking's entry has been rather phlegmatic over the past several years L The Soviets are probably concerned that Peking will attempt to engage in polemics with Moscow at the world forum and undercut Moscow's relations with the Third World nations there. When Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko learned of the UN vote, he commented that "it had to happen, but from now on we won't have an easy time" in the General Assembly and the Security Council to procedtres~j;kie-T1 erence of the Committee neva -panic-uI-ar#y the roles of on Pt~ar e PHILIPPINES: President Marcos' Nacionalista Party is expected to score a landslide victory in the 8 November senatorial and gubernatorial elections. If the landslide becomes an avalanche, it will stimulate charges of fraud and increase public disaffect-to with the regime. The opposition Liberal Party's campaign has been severely handicapped by a lack of funds and, in many local elections, the party has not even been able to field candidates. Primary interest centers on the eight senate seats up this year. There are rumors that Marcos may try to engineer a Nacionalista sweep since he would like an overwhelming victory .in order to strengthen prospects for extending his own tenure. The combination of Marcos' increased attempts to accumulate power and the Liberals' despair ` over their inability to compete through established pttht.ical channels may prompt them to seek an accommodati.Qn with the radical left. The result could be greater ~ol'tical turbulence. SECRET Page 13 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 5E( yRET Finland: The Government Parties Gamble On.-_29 October, President Kekkonen appointed Finland's--fourth government since the March 1970 elections, a government of experts to run the coun- try until early elections can be held on 2-3 January. Its predecessor, a four-party center-left coalition, fell when the two principal members refused to compromise on next year's. agricultural price sup- ports. More to the point, both parties-the Center and the Social Democrats-concluded that the time was opportune to increase their strength at the polls. Although eight parties are repres ted in the Finnish parliament, governments normal have to be formed around the Center and Social De cratic parties. Parties of the right are unacceptablet'dqhe USSR, which is still granted a veto by the Finns, a the Communist Party is so divided that it is unable to impose discipline on its members for key"parlia- mentary votes. The Communists were members of the govern- ment coalition from July 1970 until March 1971. They dropped out when the- party's liberal leader- ship, under attack from a..st'rong conservative minor- ity, decided that it could no longer accept co-re- sponsibility for the government's economic deci- sions. A nominal Communist is in the new caretaker government, however, and the Center and the Social Democrats-as well as President Kekkonen- probably=would like the party to join the next government. Finland's economic stabilization pro- gram must be renegotiated early next year, and the Social Democrats, who are also currently battling the Communists for control of Finland's largest trade union, would particularly like their rivals on the left to share the onus for whatever is decided. The Center Party aving just staunchly de- fended the interests, its agricultural constituency, is optimistic aboixt'a new election that will focus on economic issue's. Politicians predict that Finland's desire for.,arh arrangement with the European Com- munitioS,fa sensitive item in Helsinki's all-important relations with Moscow, will also be a major issue. The government parties' election hopes may be ill-founded. The electorate moved dramatically to the right in 1970 in protest against the policies of arties, but it ended up with a government of the sa since the dustrial strik' recently took f the streets in the belief that they are being made economic stabilizatio victims of the government's rogram. The Communists, approaching a party cori fractious than ever and u ss in the spring, are more jkely to profit at the polls. The electorate may, votes to the parties of the rig refore, give added Finland's limited political o tions, reap only more political instability. Poland Emphasizes Briqhter Aspects of Economy Premier Jaroszewicz last week was optimistic about Polish economic developments in a speech to parliament. He apparently was hoping to demon- strate prior to the December party congress that the Gierek regime has begun to replace promises of a better fLture with concrete achievements. The speech did contain a frank admission of continuing shortfalls and thereby acknowledged it would take a long time to narrow the gap between the expecta- tions of the populace and the economy's ability to satisfy them. Page 17 Jaroszewicz stressed particularly improvements in the lot of the consumer, claiming achievement of above-plan increases for national income, real wages, and consumption. He also cited improvements in market supply and the achievement of price stabil- ity. The premier admitted, however, that supplies and assortment of consumer goods and particularly of meat have failed to match consumer demand, that butter remains in short supply, and that prog- ress in housing construction is marred by inadequate quality and rising costs. SECRET parties. Domestic tensions have increased the country has suffered its largest in- Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SJ GKJ '1' Progress in agriculture, a sector crucial to the Polish regime's future, has been uneven. Jaroszewicz claimed a record grain harvest, but Warsaw still will have to import 3 million tons of grain next year. This is due partly to the regime's need to com- pensate for a sharp decline in output of potato and forage crops, and partly to the increased require- ment for feed to support record numbers of hogs. If adequate feed supplies are not available, farmers will prematurely slaughter meat animals, thereby nul- lifying measures introduced in the past year to boost long-term as well as current meat production. Mar- ket supplies of meat were up on the strength of record imports in the first nine months of 1971, and incentives to increase domestic production should have a favorable impact on supplies, particularly pork, in coming months. Yugoslavs Resist New Stabilization Measures Belgrade's current attempts to strengthen its attack on liquidity problems-the inability of indus- tries and banks to meet current obligations-are run- ning into difficulties. Some of the republics, which gained increased budgetary authority in last sum- mer's decentralization, appear determined to amend, if not kill, the new federal stabilization proposals. This will be the first test of Belgrade's ability to promulgate a unified program under the decen- tralized system. Ultimately the collective presidency may be called in as a court of last resort to resolve the clash of interests. The latest in the series of stabilization measures was presented to the Federal Assembly this week. The draft legislation focuses on the continuing prob- lem of illiquidity by providing for forced settlement of outstanding debts. The problem also will be tackled by requiring enterprises and government or- ganizations to maintain reserve funds and by increas- ing the reserve requirement of banks. Remaining measures are concerned with al- leviating inflationary pressures. Attempts to reduce demand, which in turn should ease import require- Jaroszewicz seemed to contradict his assertions about full employment by disclosing that in certain regions women are having a difficult time finding work. In addition, his assertion that the nation's long-term indebtedness has not increased does not seem accurate in view of the known increases in imports of consumer goods and grains. Nevertheless, the regime is predicting a positive trade balance this year. The leadership has been quick to take much of the credit for positive developments in the Polish economy, although giving the usual nod to the USSR for helping Poland to meet its economic requirements. The government is well aware that the population expects further improvement, and probably will step up efforts to upgrade working and living conditions rather than risk the consumers' 25X1 ments, include additional restrictions on credit and a reduction in the growth of the money supply. Price controls, slated to expire on 29 October, have been extended "until further notice." Longer term economic measures to be incor- porated in the new five year plan are being prepared by special working groups of the Federal Executive Council. This legislation will include revisions of the price system, modifications of taxes, and new for- eign trade and exchange regulations. Proposed ac- tions must be coordinated with republic authorities. Coordination will be difficult to achieve, how- ever, because the various republics differ on the central issues of exchange rates and retention of foreign exchange earnings. The two wealthiest re- publics, Croatia and Slovenia, already have taken public exceptions to the federal program. In addi- tion, the Federal Executive Council and the Federal Assembly are squabbling over control of the stabili- zation drive. Trade unions also have some reserva- tions about the recent stabilization measures. The trade union leadership is trying to exert pressure on the government to give more consideration to the plight of the worker. Page 18 SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SJ UKt"1' WESTERN HEMISPHERE Mexico-US: Talks Begin Mexican and US negotiators are once again tackling the major outstanding issue between the two governments, the salinity of the Colorado River water being delivered to Mexico. Long a difficult, technically complex, and politically sensitive issue, the matter has been complicated by a lack of coordination among Mexican officials and by Foreign Secretary Rabasa's apparent de- sire for a personal triumph in wresting dramatic concessions from the US. Meetings, begin on 8 November to seek a new, practical solution to replace the one that expires this month`.. In 1961, largely because of a new drainage system in the Wellton-Mohawk irrigation?region of Arizona, water released into the Col' rado downstream became so salty that Mexico San Diego Colorado River ARIZONA :Mohawk .Wellton 71 tested that it was unacceptable under the 1944 Water Treaty and contaminated under interna- tional law. Mineral concentrations in the river increase as the water ,moves downstream through salt-permeated soils, This natural concentration, along with the increase in salinity resulting from the addition of s1fine groundwater washing back after irrigation,poses a serious water quality threat to all Colorado River water users. The US in 1961 tooKmeasures to reduce salinity and by 1965 concluded the agreement with Mexico which last 'year was extended to 15 November 1971. I f`exico's position on salinity has continually hardlned under the Echeverria administration, at leaf as that position has been presented by the f9feign secretary. Rabasa has insisted that Eche- erria's political requirements in the important agricultural area southwest of Arizona demand a better deal than that offered to Diaz Ordaz, and ,,,that the juridical aspects of the issue are funda- hental to an acceptable solution. He has in effect maintained a threat of international litigation if theS balks at demands for further concessions. His c nterproposal last month was reasonable on the su t ce but was designed to damage the US legal pos ion. p~. It is ber-.oming evident, however, that Rabasa is not above`,misrepresenting Echeverria's view. Perhaps eggedn by rumors of Echeverria's dis- pleasure with his foreign minis r, Rabasa has been trying to squeeze an extra measure from the US on the salinity issue as a display of his diplomatic skill. He has not even kept the minister of hydraulic resources informed orr, the coming talks. More- over, last week President Echeverria told Ambas- sador McBride that technical rather than legal problems were paramount on the salinity issue. The President reportedly seemed relaxed about the matter, and was confident that this one major bilateral difficulty can be solved amicably with- out resort to third-party juridical proceed- ings. SECRET Page 19 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 lawWivei Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET Canada: Where to Turn? Ottawa is irritated with Washington over a considerable list..of issues, the most important of which stem from-the, new US economic policy. The government has instituted a review of its relations with its southern neighbor but it is not likely to find an easy alternative.` The catalog of Canadian complaints `is fairly extensive. Canada has failed to obtain relief fro.L1 the surtax. It is concerned that US congressional approval of the Domestic International Sales Cor- poration and of the "buy American" provisions of the investment tax credit will "export" jobs from Canada to the US. It fears that Canada will as a result be turned into merely a supplier of raw materials for US industry. Ottawa is op- posed to the Amchitka nu~lr test. A white paper'Iast year stated that if Canada were to thrive,as an independent state, it must exercise "judicious" control over its economic relations with the US and expand its contacts with other nations. Under Prime Minister Tru- PERU: The government has taken two major steps in recent`-weeks to further its policy of seeking a leading rOle-in the third world. On 2 November, it established'?-di~lomatic relations with Communist China, with whith--i had opened trade relations. Peking reportedly will to 200,000 tons of fishmeal, a commodity that Pe has had difficulty marketing recently. In addition, Peru has sold 105,000 tons of fishmeal to Cuba and sponsored Cuban membership in the "Group deau, Ottawa has displayed this independent ap- proach mostly in the realm of foreign affairs. It has been constrained on the economic front by the advantages of its special relationship with the US and by resistance in -some provinces to stronger national policies. Now, the Trude-ad government is moving to reduce Canada's 6pendence on the US. In a policy review Lander way, Canada can be expected `tQ seek to diversify its export markets and find nd ou c-Ts of technology and capital. It is likely to fi that alternatives are severely limited and tlt atte is to reorient the economy are costly 'm terms o rowth and development. External thirds of Canadian exports. Affairs Ministe Sharp and Industry, Trade, and Commerce Minis Pepin have already indicated25X6 that it is unlikely ada can in any significan way replace the US m et, which absorbs two The prime minister has an eye on the ex- pec ed federal elections in 1972, and will doubt- less wish to be seen as an effective protector of Canadian interests. of 77," now meeting in Lima to prepare for the UN Conference on Trade and Development sched- uled for Chile next year. At this meeting, the Peruvians have cast themselves in the role of spokesmen for the developing countries vis-a-vis the developed world. Peru can be expected to continue this policy, charting a course inde- nt of major powers while attempting to keep co relations with as many countries as possible. SECRET Page 20 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET Venezuela: An Issue for the Opposition The Caldera administration has opened itself to heavy criticism by issuing an arrest order for Senator Miguel Angel Capriles, owner of Vene- zuela's largest (and most sensationalist) chain of newspapers and magazines. Though the order was obviously provoked by Capriles, it has brought the government under attack for violating the principles of press freedom, congressional im- munity, and political asylum. The administration's patience with the un- scrupulous senator, whose papers have repeatedly cost it embarrassment, ended a month ago with the reprint in Capriles' afternoon daily, El Mundo, of the text of a secret Ministry of De- fense memorandum purporting to describe Colombian war preparations against Venezuela. Compounding the insult to the military, the paper claimed that the document was leaked to the press by insurgent penetrations of the armed forces. The government charged Capriles with of- fenses against national security so that the case would be tried before a military court. Senator Miguel Angel Capriles Page 21 Both civilian and military officials are con- cerned with Capriles' irresponsibility. His vicious anti-Colombian propaganda brought Colombia and Venezuela dangerously close to war this sum- mer, and his stories that Venezuela planned to annex Curacao nearly torpedoed Caldera's trip to that island in September. Active support of Caldera during the 1968 presidential campaign earned Capriles a senate seat, but he has since been on the outs with the government, particularly after cabinet changes last spring again failed to include any of his men. Capriles has long felt that his service in the close presidential race deserved higher recognition. Pur- suit of his political ambitions recently took Capriles to Spain, where he offered ex-dictator General Marcos Perez Jimenez support for the next presidential elections in December 1973. Despite the length of time before elections, maneuvering by announced and potential can- didates is already in progress. Many are eyeing a deal with the old dictator, who polled 11 percent of the congressional vote in 1968 and whose popularity is rising. Although Perez Jimenez has as yet struck no deal, the Capriles news chain has given him favorable copy while intensifying its anti-Caldera line. Capriles has seemed determined to provoke government action against himself so that he, like Perez Jimenez, might be depicted as a "victim of suppression" Caldera has taken on a formidable enemy in Capriles. His papers are widely read by the lower classes, and his ability to influence popular opin- ion is considerable. Capriles has taken asylum in the Nicaraguan Embassy SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 vLV1~L i Guatemala: An End to Emergency Measures The government of President Arana, having squeezed.,all possible political mileage out of its "get tough'with the terrorists" campaign and con- cerned with its -deteriorating international image, is making plans to:,lift the year-old state of siege. The government has been relatively pleased with the success of its anti-i`t-surgency program and has little to lose from such a'move. It will probably announce the step before thd-and of the year. General Arana, who made his reputation as a ruthless guerrilla fighter, ran for the pf_sidency in 1970 on a campaign that stressed law iid order. He promised to write the final chapter a de- cade of political violence that has cost thous nds of lives. Nevertheless, he began his administratsn on a conciliatory note, attempting to project thy`, image of a moderate and focusing on socioeco- nomic reform. The new Arana was a shocking disappointment to both left and right. The forme saw little profit in allowing the government play at reform and resumed terrorist activity ' 'an effort to provoke repressive action in the pope it would be so excessive and so poorly foc $d as to hasten the polarization of Guatemal society. The right, for its part, was itching f a no-holds- barred counterterror campaign tqAt might com- pletely destroy the Communist paratus. On 13 November 1970, Arana finall/ yielded to these pressures and imposed a state f siege. Government efforts over the past year to combat insurgency II9ve met with mixed results. The scatter-fire tacres adopted by security forces and right-wing vigilante groups have caused a number of Unj*. stified killings. On the positive side, however., the two major insurgent groups- the Cuba-orl'ented Rebel Armed Forces and the action arr of the Communist Party-have been severely ,-hurt and their tactical losses already exceed any strategic gains they might have hoped to make.. Nevertheless, the government has not dealt a death blow to the insurgent movement, and it retains a significant operational capacity. Political violence has, ecome so much a part of life in Guatemala that-Ahe increased level since the state of siege wa imposed had not, until recently, penetrated, opular apathy and indif- ference. Indeed, thigh the state of siege restricts political activitie -, nd suspends certain constitu- tional guarante , it impinges little if at all on the average Guato., alan. There is, for example, no curfew. Re "ntly, however, restiveness has been growing a ng students, professors, Catholic and Protesta church officials, the bar association, and political opposition. Even some of Aran -s own supporters have begun to suggest tha as change in policy might be useful. In September, Arana indicated that he ould not restore constitutional guarantees until tMe pacification program was completely success- ful. j The President, nevertheless, is sensitive to critic" in the foreign press and, having estab- lished hl self as a "forceful leader," may now agree that ntinuation of the state of siege is of more valuerthe left as a symbol of repression than it is to thgovernment in dealing with the Communists. Th .re are already indications that Arana is beginnin to discourage the extralegal use of force by his sporters and some evidence that he will end the s> to of siege and perhaps even amnesty political pi' oners as soon as he can do so without appearing\}:to yield to his op- Once this is done, the presNre will shift to the insurgents. If they do not demonstrate their strength by mounting a spectacular, operation, they lose face and Arana can declare his pacifica- tion efforts a success. If they mount the opera- tion, however, Arana will have demonstrated to his critics the need for a continued and a ssive antiterrorist program. SECRET Page 22 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 bhUXEY Tunisia: Split Widens President Bourguiba's ec!sion o ignore e grounds`Ovell for liberalization of the party and the administrattion has caused considerable polariza- tion of the two principal party factions. has stirred fern -ent within the normal l , pofrtrcal military and polie@ forces. Th i "now lining up behind either th lib' b?rals;who desire to infuse more democrat .-1narty and state institutions, or the c e1Vatives, tra itionalists who support horttar-ian.ru e.- The liberals are led by former interior minis- ter Ahmed Mestiri. They clearly ominated)he unexpectedly free and d l:L. a:___ _ e er month's congress of the ruling Destour _N ist Party. They won a majority of theseats party central committee. Mestiri then presse _ . election by the congress of the`_' political bureau the party's executive body, and came out strongly for a constitutional amendment providing for the national election of a, president in case a vacancy occurs before Bourguiba's term expires in 1974. Ignorarg the developing consensus and argu- ing once" 'again that the Tunisian people are still too immature politically to be trusted with de- Page 24 MIDDLE EAST-AFRICA mocracy, tiourgui a announce e w Id name the political bureau and stated that Prime Minister Hedi Nouira, in whom he has often ex- pressed confidence, should succeed to the presi- dency. W-hen--Po ttrT p6Ze freely -to-the foreign. press, Bourguiba syyt~s ended him from rty 6';25X1 ties. The Prsient appar t as persuaded, however, t ( cal e bitter domestic press campa Bourguiba also ,presented a slate of 20 party stalwarts to the central committee from which it selected the 14-member political bureau. Although Prime Minister Nouira had hoped to avoid a governmental crisis, the liberals were able to force one by resigning en masse. This complicated the task of Nouira who sought to rm a broadly representative government. A new a inistration council of ministers was invested late I S-1. It is composed largely of long-time supporte of Bourguiba, and includes two ex- ponents of a liberal point of view as well as both leaders of conservatives. Fir tFTd'fi s me, mi-fia} 't5fficers have be~ gun openly ,.to discuss?pctd,:ticajalornents. SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 SECRET Senior officer are general) Ding themselves with the conserva unior officers support the liberals. Noui d i defense minister can be expe to watch closely or any signs of politic ctivism within the military. Already, po e officials known to be close to or sym- T13Th Y: Military pressure on the Justice Party has caus'd-fit to "postpone" a decision to with- draw five of`'itt..,members from Prime Minister Erim's cabinet. The`arynouncement early in Octo- ber by Justice Party leader, Demirel that he was pulling out these cabinet m ers was followed by Erim's offer to resign-reject y President Sunay-and the threat of renewed mi1T'taQ inter General Tagmac, chief of the General Staff, in a speech on the 29 October- Republic Day celebrations commented pointedly that the armed forces would not allow,,.-the present dangerous situat'on to continue,afid that they supported the government "with all their strength." Two days earlier, top .military officers are said to have SYRIA-JORDAN: Syria has eased sombwhat its rest ric:tions=on 4111 border with Jordan, which was closed last July as a g aeR rian support for the fedayeen. Jordanians with vaii in ea- also ensuring that the fedayeen do nt4"tart trouble on the border. Last montfD-, a'`Jordanian commercial delegation and the foreign minister visited Syria. Both were assured that the border closure would soon be lifted. On 28 October, a newspaper in Amman reported that the Syrian foreign minister had asserted that matters pending between Syria and Jordan would soon be settled. Page 25 pathetic with Mestiri are being tran~red out of national, 4pcurity headquarter.,5,-to" outlying areas. Inasmuch as??t e y have ite'to convoke a party disciplinary co_ e, Bourguiba and Nouira may be bac aw from further action to denigrate mart rize~ tiri agreed that the politicians sho be given an- other chance to make pa i entary government work and that mi ry intervention could be avoided only by (fiving Erim full backing. Meanwhile, Erim has sharply attacked Demirel, accusing him of showing financial fav- oritism toward his brothers when he was prime minister. This tactic appears designed to split the m ity Justice Party by strengthening the fac- tion o ed to Demirel's leadership. The way party cabinet wit stice Party members of his own choice, as he had nded, and try to push his reforms through a arliament still dominated by the Justice Party. Syria has tied a reopening of the border to an accommodattven Jordan and the feda- yeen. TICtr 'ices for such an agreement still are n have reached a common position regarding Jordaniations with the fedayeen, the Pal- estinians remain-as. as ever. Yasir Arafat and other moderates softened their stand, sensing that they must acc Amman's terms if the fedayeen movement in Jor is to survive. The radical groups, on the other nd, have de- nounced an negotiations with Jorda as a defeat- ist course. SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 sraeI:. Government Takes Hard Line Israeli, concern over relations with the US was made 6yident in a major policy speech by Prime Ministr Golda Meir to the Knesset last week. In her speech;wMrs. Meir recalled her state- ment on 9 Februaryt at Israel was ready to hold discussions on openinthe canal, and she noted that on 19 April Israel .,:ad presented to the US detailed proposals on an %terim agreement. She quoted US spokesmen as saying that Israel's view- point could serve as a basis r continuing talks and said that Secretary Roger? dispatch of As- sistant Secretary Sisco to Cairo apr his May visit to Israel indicated that Rogers di 1 not find the Israeli proposals unreasonable per se. Mrs. Meir said that since March titre have. been "disturbing changes" in the US appri ch td3 several aspects of the canal settlement. The rUn, and of a symbolic crossing of the Suez Canal b' Egyptian forces, even mentioning number Secre- tary Rogers had said that an interirp` S ez Canal agreement would be only a step/to `ard imple- mentation of Security Council Res, ution 242 of November 1967. Secretary Rors, Mrs. Meir . 94 added, had also spoken of Ise'li withdrawal to the international boundary. y departing from the limits of good offices.'`' i id offering proposals of its own, Mrs. Meir sa the US risks bringing about a stalemate and 'arming the chances for negotiations. On the ques on of the supply by the US of Phantom aircra to Israel, Mrs. Meir said, "We cannot the fact that in recent months, there has b n an interruption in the supply of planes to "rael. This upsets the balance of arms... and it courages the Egyptian rulers in their preparations to violate the cease-fire and com- menc 'military operations against Israel if it does not," ey their dictates." "intensified discussion" of t opening the canal, liminary discussions statements by other the US supply of P ment. In a radio Prime Ministe wish to co not agree two subjects, Israel would Israel's Position on an Interim Agreement Egypt must clear, open, and operate the canal for the ships and cargoes of all nations, including Israel, within six months of the effective date of the agree- ient; he cease-fire must be unlimited; e Israel Defense Forces will withdraw to adis- tance; east of the canal to be determined in the agree nt; Egyp.;'an civilian technicians will be allowed on the east bank f the canal; no Egy 'an armed forces, regular or irregular, will cross the ca I Egypt will Vin out its forces west of the canal as specified in th; rout ways and mea of control will be agreed upon; the line to w h Israel withdraws will not be regarded as final; an the interim agreemit will not prevent the parties from continuing negoti ons under Jarring. SECRET Page 26 WEEKLY SUMMARY e engaging in an e arrangement for would require pre- the SUS. Subsequent ocials have linked ntom /o Israeli willingness tiatior 'on an interim settle- nterviv on 30 October, Deputy Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927A009200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Mauritius: Government Shaken Tie settlement of a recent labor dispute on terms favorable to the leftist opposition party, Mauritian Militant Movement, is having serious repercussions for the coalition government and especially for Prime Minister Ramgoolam himself. After a series of strikes that began two months ago, the Movement won its key demand that its dockworkers union be recognized instead of a government-backed organization. By con- centrating on economic issues and the present government's ineffectiveness, the Movement had already won a series of electoral victories over the past two years, and its leader, Paul Berenger, now Paul Berenger Leader of Leftist opposition has a stranglehold on the island's sugar-based economy. The government was further discredited by the inept way it handled the strikes. Formed in 1969, the coalition has held in check the island's internecine communal strife, but has made almost no progress toward solving pressing problems of poverty, unemployment, and overpopulation. Ramgoolam has apparently decided that negotiation is the best way to deal with Berenger. Meetings between the two have led to speculation that Ramgoolam might consider a deal whereby he would resign in favor of a more popular leader from his own Labor Party who would then call general elections. Ramgoolam's receptiveness to the Mauritian Militant Movement is not shared by most Labor Prime Minister Ramgoolam Party members. His overtures to Berenger-who himself is not keen about joining forces with Ramgoolam-are therefore likely to intensify the efforts of Labor Party dissidents to force the prime minister's early retirement.Fii Page 27 SECRET WEEKLY SUMMARY 5 Nov 71 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2008/05/07: CIA-RDP79-00927AO09200030001-9