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December 21, 2016
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December 5, 2007
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July 11, 1975
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Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Iq State Dept. review completed Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Secret Weekly Summary DOS review completed Secret No. 0028/75 July 11, 1975 Copy No 64 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 heWEEKLY SUMMARY, Issued every Friday morning by the Office of Current ntelllgence, reports and analyzes significant oevFalopments of the weer through non on Thursday. It fre- :ntly includes material coordinated with or prepared by the ce of Economic Research, the Office of Strategic earth, the Office of Geographic and Cartottrafattic :arch, and the Directorate of Science and Technology. sics requiring more comprehensive treatment and ro published separately as Special Reports are listed CONTENTS (July 11, 1975) MIDDLE EAST AFRICA EAST ASIA PACIFIC 1 Spain: Government Responds 2 Cyprus: Relations Worsen 25X6 3 UK: Wary Cooperation by Unions 4 Portugal: Bypassing the Parties 5 CSCE: Summit Delayed 6 USSR: Joint Mission Next Week 7 India: No Challengers 8 Persian Gulf: Different Tunes 9 Spanish Sahara: Possible Deal 10 Bahrain: Two-Year Grace 12 Japan: Miki's Diet Difficultie25X1 25X1 16 OAS: Rio Treaty Conference 16 Argentina: Wage Settlement 18 Chile: Backtracking on Rights 19 Mexico: Campaigning Abroad 20 Venezuela: Nationalization Debated WESTERN HEMISPHERE Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 ?..? SECRET V4W SPAIN: THE GOVERNMENT RESPONDS Madrid is moving to defuse tensions in Spain's Basque provinces. At the same time, the Arias government is likely to face new problems with labor following the recent nationwide labor elections, in which opposition candidates soundly trounced the government-supported incumbents. In response to a "unanimous outcry" from the press associations, the government has announced its decision to lift restrictions on news reporting of disturbances in the Basque area. Madrid also hopes to improve its image among the Basques by declaring disaster zones of areas of Vizcaya Province recently hit by torrential rains, thus making them eligible for special aid. Prime Minister Arias and his interior min- ister have met with parliamentary and church leaders from the Basque area to discuss a solu- tion to Basque unrest. The information minister told newsmen that in his personal view the three-month state of emergency imposed on April 25 would not be extended unless there are new developments before it expires. Terrorist incidents in the Basque area have decreased in the past several weeks. Meanwhile, the government suffered a serious setback in the nationwide labor elections held last month. Nearly complete tabulations reveal that more than 75 percent of the 360,000 incumbent shop stewards-the lowest echelon of worker representation in the Spanish syndical system-were voted out. Indications are that most of the winners are members of illegal labor organizations, including the Communist- dominated Workers' Commissions. The marked gains by the leftists in the elections sets the stage for a battle over loosen- ing the government's tight control of the Syndical Organization. Many of the winners favor radical changes in the system, which at present places workers and management together in one organization dominated by management and government. Page 1 WEEKLY SUMMARY /-4 Although the winners are opposed to the government, it is by no means certain that the majority of them are communists. In fact, the government eliminated the most radical candi- dates through strict eligibility rules and might invalidate the election of known communists, as it has in the past. The labor elections will resume in the fall when posts are filled at the local, provincial, and national levels in the Syndical Organization. Labor representatives in the Cortes also will be chosen at that time. The results of the first round will make it more difficult for the ap- pointed syndical hierarchy to manipulate these elections. Prime Minister Arias favors limited reform of the syndical system to meet worker discon- tent, but he has been blocked by the conserva- tive syndical bureaucracy, supported by u l trarightists with ready access to Franco. Failure to respond to demands for change at the grass-roots level will lead to heightened tensions between the government and labor. The government also moved on July 4 to quell speculation that Franco will announce his retirement this month. The information minister told the press that there would be no excep- tional political announcements on July 18-the anniversary of the outbreak of the Civil War. Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 SECRET This is a date often used by Franco in the past for important announcements. There have been rumors that Franco would turn over some of his power to Prince Juan Carlos or would strengthen the Prince's position by making him a captain general-Spain's hi hest military rank now held only by Franco. CYPRUS: RELATIONS WORSEN 5-1- 7 Relations between the two ethnic com- munities on Cyprus worsened last week follow- ing the expulsion of some 800 Greek Cypriots from the Turkish zone. The expulsions were in retaliation for rough treatment received by some of the 48 Turkish Cypriots apprehended by Greek Cypriot police while trying to make their way to the north. The Greek Cypriots' discovery of a large-scale resettlement of mainland Turks in northern Cyprus has also contributed to increasing tensions. The Makarios government has lodged protests with UN Security Council members, charging that the expulsions and the coloniza- tion were part of a Turkish effort to achieve de facto partition and modify the island's popula- tion ratio in order to reinforce the Turks' claim to the two fifths of the island they now control. Fewer than 8,000 Turkish Cypriots remain in the south, with an equal number of Greek Cypriots in the north. The Turkish side wants complete separa- tion of the two communities in a biregional federation. The Greek side, on the other hand, has called for a multiregional federation in which the two communities would remain inter- spersed in several regions. Except for hardship cases, the Makarios government has generally discouraged Greek Cypriots in the north from moving south and has refused to permit Turkish Cypriots in the Greek Cypriot zone to move north. Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash earlier had threatened to expel the remaining Greek Cypriots unless all of his countrymen in the south were allowed to move north, but he was persuaded by the UN special envoy to Cyprus to halt the expulsions in return for transfer to the north of the injured Turkish Cypriots and their families. There are indications, however, that the Turks have now embarked on a campaign to secure release of the rest of their kinsmen in the south- The inhabitants of several Turkish Cypriot villages in the Greek Cypriot zone have already petitioned the UN for transfer to the north. The expulsions and the colonization, along with the poor prospects for the talks, have increased the frustrations of Greek Cypriots at a time when both sides are planning large-scale demonstrations marking the first anniversary on July 15 of the coup against Makarios and the Turkish invasion five days later. These demon- strations are likely to raise feelings along the cease-fire line to fever pitch and could lead to outbreaks of violence before or during the anniversary week. The growing tensions have dimmed the prospects for the next round of intercommunal negotiations, set to begin in Vienna on July 24. Denktash, who has adopted a tougher stance than Ankara in recent months, has yet to present proposals on the powers of the central government or to elaborate his plan for a joint 25X1 provisional government as he has promised earlier. He hinted last week that the talks may have to be postponed.[ Page 2 WEEKLY SUMMARY Jul 11, 75 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 SECRET NOW UK: WARY COOPERATION BY UNIONS Leaders of the Trades Union Congress and weeak the Confederation of British Industy this week opted to cooperate with the government's pln to limit wage increases voluntarily during the coming year. By restraining wage demands the Wilson government hopes to reduce Brtain s annual rate of inflation from 25 perc sometime highest in Europe-to 10 percent by so next year. The key to the success of the govern- ment's anti-inflation program, however, is the assent of individual unions and their members rather than the TUC. The National Union of Mineworkers gave for the government the first glimmer of hope voluntary restraints when the miners decided this week to "seek" rather than "demand" pay increases of over 60 percent. The miners did not set a deadline for the increase. statutory miners had controls refused to abide by the imposed by the Heath government, and their recalcitrance was one of the leading factors in the Tory defeat in the election of February 1974. Despite the miners' apparent cooperation for immediate on wage hikes, their demand rkweek suggests negotiations for a four-datrouble by early that the government may face y next year. Chancellor of the Exchequer is has said privately that the government planning to stockpile coal in anticipation of a strike. The general council of the Trades Union Congress-by a vote of 19 to 13-decided to limit weekly wage increases to $13 during the coming year. This amount is within the significant suggested by Healey and a sig reduction from the amount the union leaders price had discussed earlier. As their ov- operating, the TUC leaders have asked the with h ernment to deny pay raises 5 000, to work annual income exceeding l nd to h k diligently to reduce unemployment, down prices for six months. Jack Jones, head of Britain's largest union, has repeatedly addresses National Union of Mineworkers failure to cooperate with Prime Minister Wilson could result in the government's defeat. The union leaders, while not enthusiastic about any kind of wage co troleandareal~ e that) it is ilot in to statutory their interests to topple the government. The Confederation of British Industry, for its part, is unenthusiastic about the govern- ment's plan, because it believes the onus for implementation is being placed industry. The government has said that it does not intend to take legal action be- cause for violation of the wage guidelines, such sanctions generally result in labor disputes and would negate efforts to solve the country's economic ills. The government will that s to set up take legal action u against elinescbup it plan guidelines, adhere to the aid private employers who d t o an insurance fun resist strikes aimed at breaking the wage uide- l i nes SECRET Page 3 WEEKLY SUMMARY Jul 11, 75 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 The 240-member armed forces general as- sembly has issued proposals detailing the estab- lishment of direct links between the people and the Armed Forces Movement. The plan, clearly a compromise between extreme left-wing, Com- munist, and moderate views, will easily enable the Movement to bypass political parties and retain full military control of public assemblies. The new governing system, as described by the assembly's document, will include three parallel structures: the military, the government, and the popular assemblies. The popular as- sembly structure is envisioned as a pyramid, building from the local level to the municipal, district, regional, and national levels. The re- organization will begin with the already numer- ous "popular organizations" formed on the local level. The Movement assures that it will control the process by determining which worker and neighborhood organizations will be recognized. Each phase of the process will be carried out only after the next lower level has been com- pleted and will involve the participation of Movement delegates. Although the document states the Move- ment has "no intention of ignoring political parties devoted to the construction of social- ism," moderate parties see little hope for their existence over the long term if the Movement's plan is implemented. According to the docu- ment, the Movement expects the parties gradu- ally to merge with the popular committees "for the correct consolidation of the political van- guard of the revolutionary process." The moderate parties have reacted nega- tively, with the Socialists announcing their re- fusal to accept any system of popular commit- tees and calling on party militants to mobilize in protest against this latest "threat to democ- racy." The center-left Popular Democrats have accused the Movement of violating the pact signed last spring between the parties and the military, while the center-right Social Demo- cratic Center has complained that the parties should have been consulted before such wide- reaching reforms were proposed. The Communists and their allies, on the other hand, quickly approved the proposals. They are probably encouraged by the similarity between the assembly's plan and the "commit- tees for the defense of the revolution" advo- cated by the Communist Party. The Commu- nists are probably also pleased that decisions within the committees will be made by a "show of hands," and not by secret ballot as the mod- erates would prefer. The Communists, who have already made progress organizing on the local level, are planning to intensify their efforts in order to gain a strong foothold in the new structure while staying on the good side of the military. The armed forces assembly's document, which apparently did not precipitate a power struggle between factions, recommends tighter government control in the form of extensive state control of industry and a global economic policy, while at the same time advocating decen- tralized decision-making through the popular as- semblies. The proposal will be presented for final approval in the Revolutionary Council, where moderates have shown increasing strength. The Revolutionary Council, however, is having a difficult time both in making decisions and then following through on them. The coun- cil was perturbed by a wave of social unrest, labor strikes, and street demonstrations last week but was unable to take decisive action against extreme leftists responsible for the trou- ble, apparently out of fear that internal security forces, sympathetic to the far left, would refuse to carry out the orders. After ordering extre- mists occupying the church-owned radio station to return the facility to the control of the Cath- olic hierarchy, the council reversed the decision in response to left-wing street demonstrations and called for nationalization of all radio and television stations. Leftist workers are still oc- cupying the offices of the Socialist newspaper Republica-in defiance of the military govern- ment but with the support of the security forces. The workers announced they would be- gin publishing their version of the newspaper Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 SECRET m" Prospects for concluding the European security conference this month with a meeting of the heads of state, as the Soviets desired, have virtually disappeared because of the partic- ipants' failure to resolve differences on several issues. The Finns announced that they will require three weeks' notice to complete the complex arrangements necessary for a summit in Helsinki. This requirement almost eliminates the possibility of a July date. Given the Finnish requirements and delays caused primarily by Malta and Turkey, it now appears that the summit cannot be held until August. Moreover, if agreement is not reached soon, the meeting may have to be postponed until after the start of the UN General Assembly and the holding of Finnish elections in September. Considerable progress was made in this week's negotiations, but agreement on a summit date is still held up by the demands of several states. Turkey and Malta are firmly opposed to setting a date, and Romania, West Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain also have objections. Tentative agreement was reached on most outstanding East-West issues. Seeking to speed up a conclusion, the Soviets have gen- erally compromised on most points and now expect the other participants to reciprocate. Despite strong divisive pressure from the Warsaw Pact countries and disagreements behind the SECRET Page 5 WEEKLY SUMMARY Jul 11, 75 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 SECRET scenes, the NATO states-and the EC in par- ticular-have maintained a united front on the conference floor. The participants have worked out a fragile compromise on follow-on procedures for the conference. The French--who had been holding out-agreed to permit additional follow-on meetings of senior officials and an eventual second conference. Difficult neqotiations remain on a number of minor points, however, and at midweek several smaller countries were threatening to withdraw their earlier approval. Agreement was reached in principle last weekend between the British, representing NATO, and the Soviets on military-related con- fidence-building measures. Advance notification of military maneuvers will apply to the territory of all European participants in the security con- ference and to a 250-kilometer zone along Soviet frontiers with other participants, as well as along the Baltic and Black Sea coasts. Final agreement was made possible when the West Germans gave up their demand for a 275- kilometer zone. USSR: JOINT MISSION NEXT WEEK Preparations for the Soviet portion of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project seem to be proceeding smoothly. The joint mission plan calls for launch of the Soyuz spacecraft at 8:20 a.m. EDT on July 15. About noon on the 17th, the US Apollo spacecraft is to dock with the or- biting Soyuz, and various crew exchanges and joint scientific experiments will begin. Final separation of the two spacecraft is planned for about 11 a.m. EDT on the 19th, and the Soyuz spacecraft is scheduled to return to earth at about 7 a.m. EDT two days later. The remaining provisions of the agreement place the threshold for notification at 25,000 troops, with amphibious and airborne troops to be counted in any combined exercises with regular ground forces. Notification is to be given 21 days in advance of maneuvers. All three provisions will be voluntary, however, as the Soviets have insisted. The Turks' demands for a special clause exempting them from certain provisions of mili- tary-related confidence-building measures, and for Turkish Cypriot representation at the Helsinki summit, remain major obstacles to a final agreement. Ankara wants a reduction in the area of notification for military maneuvers in the southern region of Turkey, as well as a lower threshold for notification of all amphib- ious and airborne troop maneuvers. Western delegates believe that most of the resistance to confidence-building measures originates with the Turkish military. During talks in West Germany this week, Bonn pressed the chief of the Turkish armed forces, General Sancar, to show more flexibility on this issue, and several other NATO members made strong demarches in Ankara. The Turks want to shift discussion of these issues from Geneva to Brussels, but the NATO allies fear that such a move would merely prolong the negotiations. France and Canada led several attempts this week to break the impasse over the summit date. They sought to establish the end of July as a target date, while giving the participants another week to work out their differences on the most important issues. Maltese Premier Mintoff's demands for the inclusion of a special declaration on Mediterranean security in the conference, however, prevented agreement on a July 30 date. Since all conference decisions must be by consensus, Malta thus has succeeded in blocking agreement on a summit date, despite intensive efforts by the EC to work out promise. Page 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 -33 Prime Minister Gandhi continues to tighten her control over the nation in the wake of the proclamation of a state of emergency on June 26. The transition to a more authoritarian regime has been surprisingly smooth, with peaceful acquiescence in all but three of India's 22 states. The chief potential trouble spots for the government are the states of Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, which are not ruled by Mrs. Gandhi's Congress Party, and Bihar, the home state of jailed reform leader J. P. Narayan. So far the month-old Gujarat government has carefully avoided antagonizing New Delhi, lest it be dis- solved. The autonomy-minded government of Tamil Nadu in south India is taking that risk by making only a limited effort to enforce the emergency regulations. Moreover, leaders of the state's ruling party are openly critical of Mrs. Gandhi's actions. She could dismiss the state government and impose rule from New Delhi, but only at the expense of fanning latent feel- ings of separatism that have long existed in Tamil Nadu. This month, as schools reopen, students may try to demonstrate against the suppression of civil liberties. Mrs. Gandhi will not hesitate, however, to use the sizable and effective secu- rity forces at her disposal to crush any protest. Tight press censorship will continue to limit public knowledge of events that could embarrass the government. Parliament has been convoked for the week of July 21 to approve the emergency proclama- tion; the constitution requires such action within 60 days. The Congress Party's large majority ensures easy passage. Government of- ficials claim the proceedings will be valid, despite the fact that opposition leaders are now in jail. Mrs. Gandhi has been anxious to emphasize that she is operating entirely within constitutional limits. The Supreme Court is scheduled to take up next week Mrs. Gandhi's appeal against her re- cent conviction of illegal campaign practices in 1971. Although the court is unlikely to render a full written decision before late summer, an oral judgment could be issued earlier. Some segments of society are showing approval for Mrs. Gandhi's authoritarian moves. Her apparent determination to press for greater national productivity, for austerity among the middle and upper classes, and for a crackdown on racketeers, smugglers, and hoarders has been well received by much of the public as well as the military. This week the Prime Minister also secured promises of cooperation from industrialists and labor union leaders. Some businessmen maintain that Mrs. Gandhi wants tangible economic improvements to justify her emergency actions and that she may not hold national elections until there is enough economic improvement to compensate for the curbs on political freedom. The majority of the population will focus on Mrs. Gandhi's sweeping promises to improve economic conditions for the poor-many of these promises being reminiscent of campaign pledges made five years ago. One way the Prime Minister could demonstrate that she now means business would be to start implementing long-sought economic measures, such as land reform, that would hurt some prosperous supporters of the Congress Party. Another would be to strengthen central government control over the economic affairs of the states. Since independence, legal and political considerations have allowed the states to pursue agricultural and financial policies that give priority to local rather than national goals. Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 Approved For Release 2007/12/05: CIA-RDP79-00927A011100090001-1 SECRET 3 ?-3~ PERSIAN GULF: DIFFERENT TUNES Iran's Shah is unlikely to realize soon his ambition to be the architect of a comprehensive Persian Gulf security pact. Sharp differences have developed between Tehran and Baghdad over the scope of the proposed arrangements, and Saudi Arabia's rulers are clearly wary of any formal multilateral scheme. The Shah has long been promoting an area defense accord that would be directed against both externally mounted threats to regional peace and subversive efforts against local regimes. He had apparently come to believe that Baghdad, following the rapprochement between Iran and Iraq last March, was thinking along the same lines. Last month, however, the Iraqis began making it known that their idea of regional security cooperation was limited to an agreement to ensure freedom of navigation in the gulf and the narrow Strait of Hormuz. Persian Gulf security was one of the topics discussed during the visit to Tehran last week by Saudi Crown Prince Fahd. A Saudi official who accompanied Fahd described the talks on the subject as "useful." According to the final com- munique, the two sides agreed that the gulf should remain a "peaceful, secure, and stable region, free from foreign interference and for- eign bases." Although Fahd thus agreed with the Iranians that foreign activity in the Persian Gulf should he opposed-a Position spelled out previously in Saudi Policy statements-he ap- parently displayed little enthusi r_ - . asm agreement on security arrangementsishould be worked out in bilateral contacts before any such conference is held; othe i rw se thell smaer states might be forced to accept Positions with which they do not agree. In fact, the Saudis almost certainly oppose the Shah's concept, fearing that such an accord would mean a stronger Iranian role on the Arab side of the gulf. The disparity of views among these three key countries would seem to rule out any serious discussion of a regional security pact whstatesen thmeeetfoireign ministers of the Persian Gulf informally in Saudi Arabia this week during the Islamic foreign ministers' conference. The Iranians themselves may now feel con- strained to back off from the project, at least for the present. The Shah's foreign minister, in a statement to the press while Fahd was still in Tehran, denied that a regional defense accord is under discu