WEEKLY SUMMARY

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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'' ``" Secret
25X1
Weekly Summary
Secret
Cl WS 76-014
No. 0014/76
April 2, 1976
-Copy N2 67
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The WEEKLY SUMMARY, issued every Friday morning by the
Office of Current Intelligence, reports and analyzes signifi.
cant developments of the week through noon on Thursday, it
frequently includes material coordinated with or prepared
by the Office of Economic Research the Office of Strategic
Research, the Office of Geographic and Cartographic
Research, and the Directorate of Science and Technology.
SECRET
CONTENTS (April 2, 1976)
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
1
Lebanon: Truce Still Elusive
4
Israel: Arab Disturbances
8
Spain: Growing Polarization 25X6
9
Portugal: Calm, But Uneasy
12
UK-USSR: Gromyko's Visit
12
EC: Considering Concessions
14
USSR: Fusion Research;
WESTERN
HEMISPHERE
15
Argentina: Coup in Perspective
17
Panama: Setback for Torrijos
18
Guyana: No Cubans
EAST ASIA
PACIFIC
19
Thailand: Facing the Test
19
Japan: Waiting for the Facts
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 LEBANON: TRUCE STILL ELUSIVE
Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt (I) with Yasir Arafat following meeting to discuss Lebanese situation
2- 1
A -r
recent military successes, to withdraw his aid and
persuade jumblatt to accept a truce. Although
Arafat wants to protect his close ties with Jumblatt
and his allies-Muslim radical leader Ibrahim
Qulaylat and renegade army officer Ahmad
Khatib-the Palestinian leader is worried
Damascus will cut off supplies to Fatah and that
defiance of Syria at this point could lead to a
direct confrontation with Syrian troops or, worse
still, intervention by Israel. Arafat met with
Jumblatt several times this week in an apparent
effort to rein in his ally. Arafat would have to end
all aid from Fatah, however, to halt the leftist
military advance.
Lebanese leftist Muslim forces under the
leadership of Kamal Jumblatt continued their
drive this week against Christian strongholds in
defiance of Syrian efforts to negotiate a truce.
After some initial panic triggered by President
Franjiyah's flight from the presidential palace to
Juniyah on March 25, the Christians stabilized
their hold on the core area, but they are clearly
on the defensive and eager to accept a Syrian-
brokered cease-fire. Damascus, having failed in
attempts at direct mediation, has cut off arms to
the leftists in hopes of slowing their offensive and
bringing jumblatt to heel, but the Syrians still
appear reluctant to risk an Israeli reaction by in-
troducing large numbers of Syrian troops in
Lebanon.
The Syrians have been pressing Fatah chief
Yasir Arafat, whose increasingly active support to
the leftists has been largely responsible for their
Leftists Want Decisive Advantage
jumblatt's forces have made inroads against
the Christians in Beirut's hotel district and in the
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Kafir
Matta
aubayyah
A
MFFVrFkRAt`EEA'J ?Tripoli
Zaghorte
Syria
*Damascus
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mountainous area east of the capital, and are
threatening Christian villages on the periphery of
the Christian core area. They have put especially
heavy pressure on the Christian city of Kahhalah,
and are fighting in other previously uncontested
Christian territory.
The Christian forces are roughly equal in
numbers to the 15,000 to 20,000 leftists under
Jumblatt's umbrella command, but are inferior to
them in supplies and equipment. Christian
leaders are worried that they cannot hold off a
combined leftist-Palestinian drive for more than a
few months.
Most Christians are now willing to accept
Franjiyah's departure from office, but are hoping
that it can be arranged through a Syrian-proposed
formula that would provide a facade of con-
stitutional legality.
Syrians Still Hope for Mediation
The Syrians, although still deeply suspicious
of Arafat, are banking heavily on him to salvage
their mediation effort. They are trying to arrange
an immediate truce to be followed by a quick
amendment of the Lebanese constitution and
election of a new president within a matter of a
few days. The Syrians may believe they can police
a new cease-fire-at least temporarily-without
sending additional troops to augment those
already there.
President Asad has probably not made a final
decision on whether he can risk openly interven-
ing in Lebanon. He would probably face strong
opposition in Damascus if such intervention
appeared aimed at preventing the leftists from
scoring a military victory, especially at the risk of
sparking an Israeli reaction. Asad probably
believes he can delay a decision if Arafat
cooperates and the leftists begin losing their
momentum on the ground.
Syrian military forces remained on alert
throughout the week, although at a slightly lower
level than the week before.
Syria may have move
some units into the southern Golan Heights
area-possibly as a precaution against an Israeli
reaction to any military move Damascus may
make in Lebanon.
If Syria does decide to intervene, it could
probably use at least a division of regular
troops-mainly mechanized infantry and armor
personnel, supported by field artillery, conven-
tional antiaircraft artillery, and antitank units. The
mission of the force would be to interpose itself
between the warring factions-possibly by es-
tablishing a corridor in Lebanon along the
Beirut-Damascus road. The Syrians would
probably keep out of southern Lebanon to avoid
provoking the Israelis.
Israel Remains Calm but Wary
So far, Tel Aviv has not appeared to be overly
concerned about the recent Syrian military
measures. It has stated publicly, however, that it
would take steps if Damascus openly sent regular
armV units into Lebanon ~
Israel is ready to begin
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mobilizing very quickly if
threat from Syria.
it perceives a direct
Jordanians on Alert
In reaction to the deteriorating situation in
Lebanon, Jordan's King Husayn ordered his
military forces placed on a low-level alert prior to
his departure for the US on March 28, but so far
the alert has not been fully implemented. Jordan's
fighter aircraft have reportedly been armed and
put into protective shelters, and antiaircraft ar-
tillery units have been moved into combat
positions near Jordan's two principal fighter
bases. Amman may have also strengthened its
forces in northwestern Jordan as a precaution
against a possible Israeli move there if fighting
should break out between Israel and Syria
because of Lebanon
t's ---- ~_ 6
Gaza,
GAZA,
s rafp (
k Y)
ISRAEL: ARAB DISTURBANCES
Violent demonstrations by hundreds of
Israeli Arabs shook northern Israel this week. The
demonstrations reflect growing resentment, par-
ticularly on the part of young Israeli Arabs, over
continuing neglect of their problems by the
Jewish majority. The Arabs' willingness to assert
themselves in this way is a further manifestation of
the increased pride and-self-confidence they have
gained following the Arab-Israeli war in 1973.
The demonstrations centered on the villages
of Sakhnin, Arraba, Kafr Kanna, and Et Tira. Seven
demonstrators were killed, nearly 70 wounded,
and approximately 300 arrested by Israeli security
forces attempting to maintain order. Dozens of
Israeli policemen and soldiers were injured by
young Arabs throwing rocks and fire bombs.
The disturbances were an outgrowth of an
earlier call by Israel's small Rakah Communist Par-
ty for a nationwide strike on March 30. Rakah call-
ed on Israel's 537,000 Arabs to protest the
government's decision to expropriate land in
Galilee for several development projects design-
ed in the long run to increase northern Israel's
t seporatio
eb.~
GALILEE I GOL, J
) fwlap4'
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Israeli police corner Arab demonstrator during recent disturbances
Jewish population. Approximately one third of
the land in question is Arab-owned.
The strike itself was only partially effective,
with most Arabs showing up for work. Some
Israeli employers had threatened to dismiss any
Arab employee who heeded the strike call. There
were widespread sympathy strikes on the
Israeli-occupied West Bank, but no major
violence.
The government and most Israelis were sur-
prised . by the violent nature of the
demonstrations and the numerous casualties.
Nevertheless, a Rakah motion of no confidence
on the government's handling of the disturbances
was overwhelmingly defeated in the Knesset.
Prime Minister Rabin echoed the sentiments of
most Israelis when he charged during the debate
that Rakah was responsible for inciting the
demonstrators and that the Communists sought
to disrupt the fabric of cooperation painstakingly
created over the years between Jews and Arabs in
Israel.
Rakah no doubt called the strike with a view
to rallying additional Arab support to its banner
and keeping the national political attention it
gained last December when it won an
overwhelming victory in the Nazareth municipal
elections. The party-which controls only 4 of
the 120 Knesset seats-probably has no more than
2,000 members. In recent years, however, it has
significantly improved its standing among Israeli
Arabs who have increasingly come to regard it as
the only legal and credible spokesman for their
grievances.
The government's effort to maintain order
received widespread public support, although
several Israeli commentators warned against
simply blaming Rakah for Arab unrest. The com-
mentators suggested that the government re-ex-
amine its policy toward the country's Arab
minority to better take into account Arab sen-
sitivities. The government will probably make a
special effort to avoid provoking further
demonstrations, but it is unlikely to initiate far-
reaching programs to help the Arabs attain a
greater measure of equality.
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%"r SECRET 'S
INDIA: NEW BUDGET
India's budget for the year beginning April 1
appears mildly expansionary, yet unlikely to
rekindle inflation.
India had a good year in 1975, primarily
because of a record food-grain harvest and falling
domestic prices. But growing industrial produc-
tion has outpaced demand and inventories have
risen. New Delhi hopes that its new tax cuts in the
budget will pick up demand and production.
Continued economic expansion, however,
depends less on fiscal measures than on the im-
pact of weather on agriculture. A poor summer
monsoon season would quickly depress India's
currently buoyant economy.
The current favorable economic climate has
helped greatly in sustaining widespread public
support for the repressive national emergency
that Prime Minister Gandhi imposed last June.
Her willingness to edge away from ideologically
oriented economic policies toward more
pragmatic ones reflects the political importance
of responding to the expectations she has rasied
for improved living standards for the masses.
Gandhi's son Sanjay, an increasingly influential
figure in New Delhi, is among those urging a
better performance by the sluggish public sector
and consideration of a larger role for the long--
suppressed private sector.
The budget sets the highest priority on com-
pleting ongoing projects in agriculture, energy,
and industry. Defense expenditures are up about
12 percent. As a percent of total expenditures,
defense dropped to 19 this year from about 21 last
year. Spending on family planning will increase
about 10 percent. Total planned spending is up
about 20 percent from last year's proposed
budget, but only 3 percent compared to the revis-
ed budget. The budget is regularly overspent by
10 to 20 percent.
This year's spending plan is being attacked by
the Indian left because the program continues
Gandhi's trend away from past socialist tax
policies. Her uneasy ally, the Communist Party, is
unhappy with the personal income tax cuts and
the incentives for the private sector. Business in-
terests, on the other hand, are reportedly disap-
pointed at the small reduction in excise taxes and
the absence of changes in basic corporate taxa-
tion.
New Delhi's new fiscal measures are unlikely
to produce a major step-up in economic growth.
The country still suffers from insufficient savings
and investment. Fear of renewed inflation will
mean continued restrictive monetary policies.
Economic growth for 1976 and beyond will
probably not reach the government's target of 5.5
percent and will remain tied closely to each year's
agricultural performance.
STAT
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SPAIN: GROWING POLARIZATION
The movement toward a leftist-oriented
alliance of opposition parties in Spain is provok-
ing belligerent responses from Spanish rightists,
who have raised the specter of a "nationalist"
coalition to oppose the left.
The two major coalitions of the Spanish op-
position-the Communist-dominated
Democratic Junta and the Socialist-led Platform of
Democratic Convergence-have apparentlyy
hammered out a joint program after a week of in-
tensive negotiations. The formation of the
alliance, referred to as the Democratic Coordina-
tion, is still subject to ratification by some of the
parties involved, however, and the major Chris-
tian Democratic party in the Platform
coalition-the Christian Democratic Left-is bad-
ly divided over the issue of cooperation with the
Communists. The party may have to choose, at its
congress on April 3 and 4, between the new op-
position alliance and a merger of two of the major
Christian Democratic parties, which had
appeared to be imminent. Should they back out
of the alliance, the Socialists might also recon-
sider.
In any case, the merger of the coalitions ap-
parently would not represent a true popular front
and, more likely, would turn out to be an overall
coordination structure designed to put pressure
on the government. F_ _J
The creation of even such a temporary
organization would contribute to the increased
polarization of political forces in Spain.
The maneuverings of the left are already
stimulating rightist political groups to think of
forming their own coalition. Earlier this month at
the annual congress of the 500,000-strong National
Confederation of Civil War Veterans-officially
nonpolitical, but potentially one of the most
powerful pressure groups in Spain-some of the
delegates reportedly advocated forming a
"National Front" to counterbalance the incipient
"Popular Front" forming on the left. A bid to
transform the confederation into a political
association, Spain's current version of a political
party, was defeated-in part because the armed
forces continue to oppose an overt political role
for the organization.
Spurred by the increasing level of violence in
public demonstrations and by the apparent grow-
ing unity of the left, Spain's right wing seems to be
seeking an open confrontation with the left. The
Confederation of Veterans declared its intention
to organize a march in Madrid on April 4 to
protest the government's relaxation of political
restrictions, knowing full well that the rightist
march would clash with a previously announced
demonstration by the opposition. The govern-
ment has banned both rallies.
Further to the right is Bias Pinar, leader of the
Francoist "New Force." He told 2,000 or more of
his followers on March 28 that King Juan Carlos
had betrayed Franco's legacy by allowing the op-
position to organize. Bias Pinar referred scathing-
ly to the spectacle of liberals, Marxists, and
democrats openly embracing in the streets-with
the blessings of certain members of the
church-and warned that his group stood ready
to enforce the laws even if the government would
not. After his speech, several hundred of his sup-
porters demonstrated in Madrid to demand the
government's resignation.
More extreme rightists-like the violence-
prone Guerrillas of Christ the King-have already
taken matters into their own hands on several oc-
casions. They have been especially active in the
troubled Basque country, where recent terrorist
violence has inspired a renewed campaign of
counter-terrorism, including several bombings
and attempted assassinations of suspected
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PORTUGAL: CALM, BUT UNEASY
Portuguese military leaders last week reaf-
firmed their pledge to hold a legislative election
on April 25, despite technical difficulties that
threatened a delay. The announcement was
designed to quell rumors that the election might
be postponed, or possibly even canceled, and to
reassure an uneasy public that the military still in-
tends to turn power over to a predominantly
civilian government.
One of the principal arguments advanced for
postponing the election was the likelihood that
the constituent assembly would be unable to
complete a draft constitution before the official
campaign begins on Sunday. The Revolutionary
Council, in reaffirming the election date, urged
the assembly to complete its work as quickly as
possible. A final impasse on amending the con-
stitution was settled early this week. It is now
scheduled to be promulgated by President Costa
Comes on Friday at the closing session of the
assembly.
The military's intentions were opened to
question when key leaders began to emphasize
the disruptive potential of the campaign, which
has already been marred by civil disorders and a
flood of coup rumors.
Armed forces leaders have expressed par-
ticular concern in recent weeks over the threat of
labor disorders and have made it clear they will
deal severely with politically motivated strikers. In
one instance, the government threatened striking
nurses with conscription if they did not return to
work. In another, a strike by construction workers
was called off after Communist Party leader
Cunhal was warned that the government would
publish information definitely linking the Com-
munists with the leftist military uprising on
November 25. Scattered strikes are continuing,
but Cunhal is now claiming that the right is
fomenting the labor unrest and trying to put the
blame on the Communists.
Intensified rivalries among the political par-
ties has also drawn the ire of the military. In a ses-
sion with Revolutionary Council representatives
4CT
two weeks ago, the part;es agreed to tone down
their rhetoric, and Prime Minister Azevedo sub-
sequently met with Communist, Socialist, and
Popular Democratic leaders in an effort to settle
some of their differences. Violent campaign-
related incidents, nonetheless, are on the rise.
Seven persons were injured when leftist
demonstrators tried to break up a Popular
Democratic rally last weekend in the traditionally
Communist Alentejo region southwest of Lisbon.
There have been several clashes between
Communists and members of a small extreme
left-wing group over the use of the hammer and
sickle logo. The most recent incident-in which
three persons were hospitalized-occurred last
Saturday. after the Supreme Court decided that
the Portuguese Communist Party did not have the
exclusive right to the emblem. The decision is a
blow to the Communists' prestige, but could
provide them with an excuse for withdrawing
from the election if they want to avoid a poor
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