NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 7 SEPTEMBER 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 13, 1999
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: September 7, 1949
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For R lease 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0t 0A000100050010-5
4E &A E..ST/h r' A& 2.r~i(A y':}}`yy4, .tY~~"c
F x' E s.. i.Y.l. !{.E Phi Ye AND ESA ? M..S
E'I~.;A Z, `U L LW aNCE AGENCY
KING PAPER
NOTICE: This ddncuz:s eut is a wor tag lraper, not
an official CIA ssuaace., it bas been co-sardine -
ted within ORE, but not with the IAC Agencies.
It represents current thinking iay specialists in
C ltk , add des tgned for use by others engaged
iii similar or oveer pping studies. The opinions
aj::pxe ; ed rem, may ire revv Led before final
and offtci.1 publication. It is intended solely
the inforrna.i iorr oii: the addressee and not for
fc rt.her dissetn atim.
ENT NO
16
F- `
r.
fN CLASS
~----
.
CC tL"un8ft
?...
25X1A9a
try io
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5
 Approved For Rye se 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-01A000100050010-5
HEAI" 1" ,i T j E ; i- ANC 1i
1_,:.:..t(a ,Nc e r a Vol. IV No. 5
F'_)r Week 1,nd*ng
:tern Der
~jreek political strategy c~ ue 'rz 1a_EL- leui: in an effort to forestall
any Soviet attempt in the UNGA to o+`btB.in an advanta.geou n "settlement"'
of the Greek problem, Greece is takir steps toward the solution of
political aspects of the guerrilla problWWm and is re-emphasizing the
importance of international action to seal Greece's northern borders.
The Greek Government will soon announce a broad program which may
provide re-education and amnesty for all guerrillas except the hard
core and leadership, stays c execution for crimes connected with the
rebellion, and an early date for national elections. To prevent Communist
political resurgence, however, the government will reaffirm the illegal
status of the Greek Communist. Party and will probably deny civil and
political liberties to Cornmuni its and former guerrillas for some time.
On the other hand, the Greek Government, the press, and the radio are
giving wide publicity to the crucial role Albania played in preventing the
complete annihilation of guerrillas in the Vitsi and Grammos areas, and
Foreign Minister Tsaldaris has said that recent Albanian orders to dis-
arm and intern guerrillas are no more to be trusted than similar assur-
ances given a. year ago. With guerrilla, strength inside Greece reduced
to about 5,000 by successful Greek Army action in the Vitsi, Grammos,
Beles, and other areas, and with We Yugoslav border closure largely
effective, it is apparent drat continuation of organized guerrilla movement
within Greece will depend primarily on Albanian support in reorganizing ,
equipping, and committing the estimated 1:6,000 guerrillas now in Albania.
By stressing ttds fact and by setting up a framework for internal pacific.--
tion, the Greek Government apparently hopes to encourage UN efforts
to solve the border problem and to discourage any international attempt to
intrude in Greek domestic affairs.
TURKEY
Turks draft law to ern our a iorei investment: The Turkish Cabinet has
approved a draft bill designed to encourage foreign private capital invest-
ment in Turkish economic development projects. The draft bill seems to
be an attempt to meet accusations made both in the US and by the Turkish
opposition that the government is adhering too closely to the collectivist
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17: CIA-RDP79-01099OA000100050010-5
%ftfol
economy of ,,ti,is . Provisions for the transfer of both capital and profits
are included in the proposed bis1. The bill apparently makes no assurance,
however, as to the xg, at which either profits or capital may be with-
drawn and thus leaves unsolved two of the principal problems which deter
potential foreign investors: the security of their investment and its
amortization. As reported, the draft bill does not Include as many con-
e-essions as even a moderately cautious investor would require. It is
likely that future investors will be compelled to conclude individual con-
tracts with governmental acquiescence if not participation, even after
the bill is passed. 25X6A
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5
25X6A
JORDAN
Abdullah ink: King Abdul.l.ah s 11-d..ay visit in Spain., which was launched
with appropriate pomp on 5 September, promises to be a well-staged
publicity stunt. Although the two heads of state can be expected to corm-
misere over their common exclusion from the UN and to discuss such
matters as the status of Jerusalem and anti-Communism, the announced
purpose of Abdullah's visit was to discuss the nearly one million Arabs
in Spanish Morocco. Abdullah's show of interest in the Moroccan Arabs
will read well in the Arab press, whip: a display of particular cordiality
toward an Arab monarch is calculated to improve Franco's standing
among his Moroccan subjects.
A tASTAN
.s hxr i r,_qi_tuattor : There appears to be A ,nme possibility that India may
accept UNCIP's last-ditch proposal -which was strongly backed by
President Truman and British Prime Minister Atlee--that the questions
involved in a Kashmir truce be settled by Admiral Nimitz or some other
arbitrator. U Prime Minister Nehru's increasing awareness of the
deleterious effects which the dispute is having predominates over the
emotionalism which has hitherto characterized his approach to the
problem, he may decide to seize what may be the only method of
obtaining a peaceful settlement which would not involve a serious loss
of Indian prestige. The danger is that India may revert to its old tactics
and state its acceptance in terms which would seriously curtail the arbitra-
tor's powers or involve considerations not covered in the 13 August 1948 and
5 January 1949 agreements. Pakistan has reportedly already accepted.
NOTED IN 131; XF
The USSR has Presented a bill. amounting to about $14,000 to the Turkish
RA11lilIIFMMII/1llillq}tRgt61YM Government to cover hospPUital. expenses for Captain Fuat Guzaltan, Turkish
cotTier who recently died in the USSR. Although Soviet officials declared
that Guzaltan killed himself, Turkish authorities were highly skeptical
and Interred the body with full military honors and at considerable expense.
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050010-5
If the Turks were not so disinclined to treat a strained international
situation lightly, they might well consider sending a retaliatory in=voice
to Moscow to cover the full expense of Guzal.tan's costly funeral.
The most important test to date of the*Yfec .veness of US .-military to Turkish is now in progress, as the ur s arms orces commence
autumn maneuvers. Command post exercises some months ago proved
useful in revealing serious deficiencies, both in equipment and in
operations. The present maneuvers, which are being watched by US
observers, should further reveal weaknesses which require correction
and should indicate the degree of success already achieved by the US
military mission.
The difficulties with which theL i would be faced if they were given
trusteeship over their former territory of Somaliland are emphasized by
joint resolutions passed by the Somali Youth League and the Allied Hamar
Youth Group in Mogadi scio on 12 August. The resolutions called for
immediate independence for Italian Somaliland and union of all Somalia,
Including the Ogaden in Ethicpia and the northern frontier district of
Kenya, with the stipulation that a collective or single UN trusteeship of
up to ten years, from which Italy was excluded, would be acceptable.
British military intelligence sources estimate that between fifty and
seventy thousand Somalis would forcibly oppose Italy's return under
any scheme and that a quarter of a million Somalis would join the move-
ment if it were at all successful.
e nature of rob tactics in the general Assembly may well be
foreshadowed by the refusal of the Lebanese Minister and the Egyptian
Ambassador to the US to join the Arab UN delegation. The Arabs might
be planning to make statements about the US (and the UN) which would
be incompatible with the diplomatic status of the two Arab representatives
in Washington.
The dilator olio be' ursue b the new S Irian Government, which
is marking time pending the re -establ shment of constitutional govern-
ment following elections scheduled for mid-September, threatens the
stability of the state. Withdrawal of Hinnawi's support, further army
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-01090A00010?0500~i0-5
 Approved For R Lease 2000/04/17: CIA-RDP79-O'OA000100050010-5
5.
intervention, or rise of civilian disturbances could easily undermine the
none too secure foundations of the existing regime.
QLIgy and postponement appear to be becoming Standard Operational Pro
cedure (SOP) within the Arab League, and the September meeting of
the Leagueas political committee, already postponed from July, may well
be put ctf again. In view of these political differences between them, the
Arab governments have been unable to come to effective joint decisions,
and they may feel it wiser not to meet at all than to meet and indulge
in political wranglings.
An uprises of disgruntled logy tiara Army officers is not likely at present,
despite the currency of rumors on the subject and King Farouk's reported.
fears of a revolt. Although there has been dissatisfaction in the army
for some time, none of the reported leaders is particularly powerful, and
Egypt's internation situation is relatively stable at present.
The Shah of Iran a arentl alarmet b e rece t r'
has formed the 8,000-strong First Division c Tehran into a "guards
division" under his personal command as a precaution against any pos-
sible attempt to overthrow the royal dynasty.
'he Union of South . frjg& is experiencing the worst drought in it
history. In the eastern Cape Province, w.Aich was particularly hard-hit,
the native fields are burned powder dry , more than 2,000 natives have
died of starvation, and many thousands of sheep and cattle have perished.
Even the large seaports cf East London and Port Elizabeth have been
required to import water by tanker from Durban. The Union Govern-
ment, faced with popular demands for the importation of more grain and
meat, will probably be forced to relax its rigid import restrictions, thus
jeopardizing the program to curtail dollar and foreign currency spending
on which the country *s propspects for economic development and financial
stability depend. The expert of manganese, chrome, asbestos, and other
strategic minerals to tle US will not be affected.
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79-0109OA000100050010-5