NEAR EAST/AFRICA DIVISION INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 8 NOVEMBER 1949

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000100050019-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 13, 1999
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: November 8, 1949
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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NOV 8 1949
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NEA 2 EAST/AF.ICA DIVISION
INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY Vol. IV No. 44
For Week Ending
13 November 1949
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Turke
Devaluation still postponed ... ? .......................... i
Export volume may determine date
Pre-election maneuvers ............................... 1
Balloting may be put off again
Egypt
Farouk steps in .......................... Y ...... ? .... 2
Falb. of coalition gives King freer hand in elections
25X6A
25X6A
Hajir's assassination .......................... ? ? . ? ? . ? ?
Assailant linked with religious opponents of regime
Noted in Brief
25X6A
Turkey, India, Pakistan, Liberia, Southern Rhodesia ........ 3
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1%W 11"~
NEAR EAST/AF:a.ICA INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
TURKEY
net.- Devaluation of the Turkish lira may not
take place for some months. Apart from the government's reluctance to
decide upon so unpopular a move, the Turks may be able to hold out for
some time, taking advantage of the preset: situation to effect some foreign
debt reduction at devalued exchange rates, thus providing economies for as
long a period as devaluation of the lira remains postponed. There is a
further advantage in postponement: if the Turks can manage to wait until
after sales from the 1949 tobacco crop have been made to US buyers, their
holdings of precious dollar exchange will be somewhat greater than if de-
valuation were to precede the sales. (There is no indication yet that US
tobacco buyers may hold off entering the tobacco market in anticipation of
a Turkish decision to devalue.)
The principal test of the Turkish Government's ability to keep on
deferring the decision to devalue will be the volume of Turkey's export
trade. If the national economy is not to collapse, Turkey must export.
Exports to the sterling area are of great importance. Only if Turkey can
maintain an acceptable volume of such exports despite the great increase
in Turkish prices in terms of devalued sterling currencies, can devalua-
tion of the lira be put off indefinitely.
Y"
fie- .kc ' n m2jeuvers: Preparadons for Syria's parliamentary elections,
which are now scheduled for 15 November, have become increasingly complicated
by the intrigue in which various political and military groups have been
engaging. The Nationalists, who dominated the old, pre-Zaim parliament,
are apparently determined to forego the elections entirely so as to
strengthen later attacks on the validity of the results and on the new regime.
They have persistently refused to participate despite the additional time for
the announcement of candidates which the government has provided and
despite the attempts at last-minute compromise which the populists, who
hold the principal posts in the present interim cabinet, are now making.
Meanwhile, one of the various army cliques, disturbed lest the Populists
curb army influence in the government, has reportedly asked former Prime
Minister Jamil Mardam (now in Egypt) to re-enter the political arena against
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them--a step which might presage another resort to the technique of the
coup d'etat. Under the circumstances, the date of the balloting, already
postponed from 5 November, may be put off again in the probably vain
hope that the political broth might then simmer down.
EGYPT
25X6A
Farouk sin: With the fall of Prime ester Sir?ry's coalition cabinet
on 3 November, Egypt's three leading political parties have lost their
chance to exert any major crun rol over the coming elections. Following the
inclusion of the majority Wald Party in the government last July for the
first time since the war, the parties have demonstrated increasing unwill-
ingness to compromise with one another or the arrangements for the fortk, -
~'afclists are reluctant because of their
coming parliamentary elections. The
confidence that they would gain a resounding victory if there were an open
contest in all districts; the Saadists axnd Liberal-Constitutionalists wish
to hold back because of their secret fears that they would suffer a subst , iai
defeat at the polls and a considerable loss in political influence unle s certain
districts were reserved for them alone. Meanwhile, King Farouk, despite his
sponsorship of the multi-party coalition last July and his support for the new
cabinet on several critical occasions, had apparently become increwdngly
disturbed by the difficulty the parties were having in reaching a compromise
agreement and by the fear that a clear Wald victory might take place, thus
diminishing royal prestige and influence. The recent Wafdist demand that
the election lists be revised apparently shook the Sirry Cabinet sufficiently
to give the King his chance. He promptly appointed a completely non-
partisan cabinet, again under Sirry, and is now in a position to exercise his
control over the elections without major party interference. He will now
find it easier to maintain his dominant position in Egypt's affairs by setting
up the elections so as to strengthen the minority parties and prevent a Wafd
landslide.
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25X6A
Hair's assassination: The recent assassination of Minister of Court Hajir,
right-hand man of the Shah, appears to have been inspired by certain political
and religious leaders hostile to the present regime, The assailant, Sayyid
Hosein Emami, has been indenttified as a follower of Abol Qasem Kashani,
influential religious leader who was :arrested after the attempt on the Shah's
life last February and subsequently allowed to leave the country. Kasha.i's
name figures among those receiving the highest number of votes in the
Tehran elections for the Senate, and he is classed with the political opposi-
tion. Kashant and certain other religious leaders, eager to restore the
former prestige and influence of the orthodox faith, are determined to obtain
strong representation in the new Parliament and have displayed bitter
hostility toward alleged government interference with the elections. Emami,
in his confession, implicated certain other opposition candidates, and
some eleven have been arrested.
'DOTED IN BRIEF
The Turks may get 50 000 tons of Syrian wheat, according to a statement
by the Syrian Finance Minister, under an agreement which should be satis-
factory to the Turks. It appears that Turkey will not be required to settle
in sterling but in Turkish bank credits for the purchase of Turkish goods.
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4.
The Turkish .Democratic Party, principal opposition group, has finally out-
lined its own version of what the new electortal law should be. The Demo-
crats are likely to struggle to the bitter end for their main contention-
that the conduct of elections be supervised by the judiciary.
Th& m t a number of. Turkish officers from the armed forces,
which has been expected since the appointment of General Gurman as Chief
of the General Staff, is now taking place. With the consequent promotion
of younger officers to higher posts, there is good promise of improvement
in leadership of the Turkish military establishment.
25X6A
With UNCIP expected to complete b 15 November what will probably be its
final report to the Security Council attempting to rally 25X6A
US support for the principle of arbitration in Kashmir to which it feels the
25X6A US are firmly committed. India will 25X6A
attemp s stitute partition for a plebiscite when the Security Council
takes up the Kashmir question, have indicated their belief that India's
objections to the present arbitration proposals can be met without Involv-
ing the surrender to Indian pressure which abandonment of the arbitration
principle would, in Pakistani eyes, represent.
India has arentl recognized at last the need for a more practical
approach to the vital problem of achieving economic stability. Recently
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the government drastically curtailed its grandiose plans for the develop-
ment of multi-purpose power and irrigation projects in order to concen-
trate on a few urgent projects and has liberalized its attitude toward
foreign capital investment. By following its present plans for improving
food production in certain criticial areas through its own strenuous
efforts, allowing foreign concerns to supply the other consumers' goods
required by the Indian people, the GOI may be able to lessen the economic
and political unrest which at present seems to be growing in the country.
Al Communist-&gQAW AU dia r e Union s has
announced that an All India Peace Conference, sponsored by various
Communist front organizations, would be held in Calcutta 24-27 November,
the conference may not take place as planned. Inasmuch as the West Bengal
Government has banned the Communist Party, permission for such a
gathering of fellow-travellers in Calcutta may not be forthcoming. More-
over, there is a possibility that the Indian Government may decide to ban
the meeting entirely or that Paul Robeson, who has been asked to preside,
may not receive official permission to make the trip. Others invited to
attend Include Mine. Sun Yat-Sen, Louis Saillant of the WFTU, and Mme.
Joliet-Curie ca the World Congress of Defenders of Peace.
Pakistan's re orted designation of an ass or 12 ft 5 . evidently
represents a reluctant yielding to pressure from the Soviets, who have
been attempting to obtain the appointment ct a Pakistani envoy to Moscow
before Prime Minister Liaquat All Khan makes his long-scheduled visit
to the Soviet capital. By refusing to announce the date of the visit (scheduled
for some time in November) and by recalling four top-ranking members of
a Soviet trade delegation in Pakistan on the eve of completion of a Soviet-
Pakistani trade agreement, Moscow has shown that it can use both political
and economic means to obtain its ends. Liaquat All Khan must go through
with his much-touted visit to save his face, and Pakistan must have Soviet
goods to bolster its economy, which is suffering from the trade war with
India.
Completion of the St. Pa "v r ri a in i rig., connecting the Western
Province with the port of Monrovia, marks the first major step in
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construction of the railroad to the lmi Hills iron deposits, which are
expected to provide a supplementary source of iron ore for the US upon
completion of the railroad.
Southern Rhodesia. has decide abandon its wartime 121anned economy
in favor of a return to free competition, as the politically most feasible
way of adjusting to devaluation of the pound sterling. Increased exports
tc the US of strategic chrome and asbestos could partially compensate
for the higher import costs which have resulted from devaluation, but
such increase will be restricted by limited port and railway capacity.
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