WEEKLY CONTRIBUTIONS 38-50(Sanitized) 19 SEPTEMBER 1950

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01090A000200050038-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2002
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: September 19, 1950
• Content Type: PERRPT

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Wee4y Contributions 36-50
19 September 1950
CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
GENERAL: Recent progress an the ratification of fundamental inter-
American instruments has been encouraging (p. 2).
NORTHERN AREA: In Mexico, Ommunists have intensified their prtpaganda
campaign (p. 2). Important Mexican labor unions have taken anti-Communist
action (p. 2).
CENTRAL AREA: In Colombia, recent government decrees against Protestant-
ism will aggravate this religious issue (p. 3). The recent illness of
Colombia's president, Laureano G6mez raises the question of whether he
will serve his full term (p. 3).
SPECIAL SUBJECTS
The Current Situation in Venezuela .
The Current Situation in Chile . aPs r 0?41.4a ?a*
a
State Dept. review completed
DocliMENT NO. _
Nu .:IANGF IN cLASS.
cHANi,D To. Ts c
_
? /6 ? 47r. .
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Weekly Contributions,
(IA Working Paper)
34-50 19 September
GENERAL: 1.1:2kzemtrantlattification oftInter-American Instruments
Encol_ .ri'mzeea
Reient-Wiodress on the ratification of fnndamental intee-
American instrunents has been encouraging. The Rio treaty has aao
been ratified by all but three Latin American countries, and of
these, Ecuador and Guatemala have already initiated the ratificat Lon
process in their respective legislatures. Although obstacles It
be placed in the way of ratification in both countries, it is aa-
pected that they will be overcome. It is also exTrted that Pint
will ratify the treaty in the not too distant future now that
newly elected legislature is functioning. The Charter of the (
vas ratified by Bolivia --following its ratification of the RI.
treaty Wkly, 5 Sep 50) -- thus reducing the number of non
ratifying to olevere Inasmuch as the US has likewise recently
ratified the Charter, SOVO or all of these countries will probab2a
be encouraged to take similar action.
DEXI00; Communist_ImmEda Intensifisd
Propaganda attackeITCo s an uomiUnist syrpathizere
against the president himself since the outbreak of hostilities in
Korea represent a distinct departure from Mxican political custom.
Previously, the Communists, like other critics of the eovernmeet,
have gone along with the accepted practice of showing considerable
respect for the office of the president, and have directed their
attacks only at other government officers such as members of the
cabinet, The attacks on Alemin are largely directed against the
administrationl's support of the UN position, The Peri (Lexican Com-
amnist Party) claims for example, that the wishes of the people nave
been disregarded and that the government is serving the Interests of
"Yankee imperialism"; "Peace Committee" attacks, and those of indi-
vidual. Communists and sympathizers have followed the same line. Even
though these attacks have increased in intensity, it is not expected
that the government will take extreme meaaures of suppression. It
vill? however, continue Its anti-Comunist campaign through pro-
admanistration labor groups, and rith other non-Communist groups,
Anti-Communist Drive by ImE2rtantjebor Unions
Etioxiesuna's-fiatrn?figan "ualiFFei6;;S: by soxoe
the mare important unions in rlexico is a favorable development fer
US as well as for Lexican security interests. Unions in strategic
industriee? including railroads, mines and oil installations, utich
formerly have evidenced considerable tolerance for Communists in
their ranks, have expelled individual Communist leaders and have
disciplined local section for following Communist principles or tac-
tics, This dgvelopment appears to be largely the effect of the gov-
ernment,s influence on labor leaders, but it also reflects to a degree
increased awareness by Mexicen labor leaders of the dangers of loo.
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Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
36-50 19 SepteMber 1950
Communist action in the event of a mar involving the usat, This
trend also would, if continued, lessen considerably the danger of
sabotage of strategic installations and therefore reduce the nuener
of military personnel needed to implement industrial defense plans,
COLOEBIA: Recent Government Decrees WM A avate 1011.1 Iseee
e?
lm-7.76-aa1owarezarmrcrea----an g agInt
Protestantism in the Department of Boyaci and in the Comisaria
Caquetg can be expected to increase resentment of G6mez in Colerela
and to cause continuing friction in US-Colombian relations, L.
Iated acts against Protestants and Protestant missionaries toner
part of the disorders of the pr od
I
The Foreign 1]inister has derenej
the barring or any religion waneI than Catholicism from the Comisaria
of Caqueta on the grounds that the Colombian concordat with the
Vatican prohibits missions other than Catholic from functioning in
Intendencias and Comiaaeias (somemnat conparable to US federal ter-
ritories), The defense is. qnestf,.onable since the decree refers tAD
practice of religion While the concordat refers only to mission
activity, The government has not as yet presented any defense of
the recent decree (effective in the Department of Boyacg) imposing
compulsory attendance at Bass on all rectors, students, etc.,
whether Protestant or Catholic.
Since Colombia has adhered to the principle of freedom of
religion not only in its constitution but also in the OAS Charter,
in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, and in the final. Act of the
Uinth Inter-American Conference at Bogota, US protests cannot be
eetracerily rejected ao unwarranted interference in Colonbia#s intee-
nal affairs. On the other hand, US pretests will probably not be
completely effective, and anti-Protestant actions will probable be
a continuing source of friction in Colombian-US relations, Further-
more, since the recent government decrees are likely to please only
those Colombians mho already favor Gomez, the present policy may
well tend to prolong current unrest and dissatisfaction with the
government, and may, conceivable, revive the bitterness of the 19th
century religious controversye
Illness Enda
s G6mez Continuance in Office
on a cornet on o rial hyper-
tension which caused Laureano Gomez to collapse on 17 September It a
luncheon (according to the usually reliable France Pros so radio serv-
ice), brings to the fore the problem of stnc=n?coM presidency?
While 05mez has reportedly recovered from the recent attack, his
condition is such as to put his cervival of four years in the presin
dency in serious question. The normal successor to the presidency,
the Des q.2, is elected by Congress each two years, and the incumbent
unt
ugust 1951 is Dr, Eduardo Santos, the Liberal leader who has
? most strenela opposed any cooperation with the amez administration,
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25X1 Weekly Contribution% 38-50 19 September
(CIA Working Paper)
Situation Memorandum 55-50
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The Current Situation in Venezuela
(Sunma The political situatien has been calm following
t s urbances of May, The economic outlook has improved
because of good prospects for a sustained high level of oil
production, Venezuelan Communists have been relatively
quiet of late. Influence of the US Military Mission con-
tinues to increase, Continued support of the US. position
vis-a-vis the USSR is almost certain.
Recent developments are generally favorable to
US interests.
Political
past three nonths the political tension, which reached a high
point during the oil strike of 3-13 MNya appears to have subsided, and
prospects are good for continued stability of the government during the
next feromonths and probably beyond, while the possibility of an elIi-
ayes for revolutionary purposes between Acci6n Democr4tica and the Cor
munists cannot be altogether discounted, the likelihood that any such
coalition could be effectively organized is remote. The success of any
revolutionary scheme still remains contingent upon disunity within the
junta and the armed forces, and of thin there is no clear evidence.
Promulgation of the electoral statute has probably been retarded
by the general apathy with which the draft statute was met, Mile both
the URD and NMI parties approve the statute and favor the peompt hold-
ing of election% their rival campaign as chanpions of free elections
has engendered little enthusiasm, among the publica Which appears to be
divided chiefly between those who are content with the statue quo and
those who feel that the elections would be a farce
Under these circumstances, it is uniteeay
that the government will try to accelerate preparations for elections.
Economitl
economic outlook has improved, largely because the Korean sit-
uation appears to have removed the threat of restrictions by the US
Congress on oil import% and also because Venezuelans anticipate an
Increased demand for petrolcura particularly in the event of war. In
preparation for such an amatnality? the Minister of Development has
asked the oil companies to report on the possibility of eapanding oil
production 25 percent. It is also reported that Creole has canceled a
contract for the disposal of 07 million of surplus drilling eqeipment,.
While an increase of only about 10 percent would bring Venezuelan oil
production from the current record level to that currently estimated
by tae RSRD as satisfying Venezuela is contribution to US wartime require-
ment% it is nevertheless favorable for US interests that planning for
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Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
'Situation Memorandum 55-50
36-50 - 2 - 19 September 1950
?
expansion should, be initiated nows in advance of actual needs in view
of the probable time lag before maximum requirements could be met.
Another repercussion of the international situation is the in-
creased consciousness of Venezuela's dependence upon imports as re-
flected in the government's decision to stockpile certain essential
commodities, beginning with automobile tires, and in the added impetus
towards achieving self6-8ufficiency in certain basic agricultural prod:-
vets, notably rice and sugar. While careful advance planning to meet
a possible supply emergency would favor not only internal economic and
political stability's but US interests as wells there is some danger of
panicky stockpiling of perishable commodities as wall as of indulgence
in uneconomic, overambitious projects aimed at self-sufficiency. The
government's program is not yet sufficiently formulated to permit any
judgment of its soundness.
The serious epidemic of foot and mouth disease has caused consider-
able criticism of the governments and particularly of Amenodoro Rangel
Lams, Minister of Agriculture, who is vulnerable to charges of negli-
gence. The removal of the control commission from the jurisdiction.of
the agriculture ministry, and the appointment of Dr. Arnaldo Gabaldon
(a man justly distinguished for his conduct of the anti-malarial campaign)
as director of the now autonomous commission probably signifies not only
that the junta lacks confidence in the Minister of Agriculture, but also
that the campaign to control the epidemic will henceforth be more vigor-
ous and efficient,
kilitar
A number of plans now under consideration in the ministry of defense
indicate the increasing influence of the US Army Mission; if adopted,
these plans should eventeally improve the efficiency of the Venezuelan
armed forces, Among the projects being discussed is a radical reorgani-
zation of the armys which among other things would increase army strength
from approximately 16,000 to 20,000 and would group the infantry battal-
ions (now the largest organized unit) into three brigades, each comparable
to a small infant- division. Also being considered are plans to establish
three recruit training centers; to combine the first two years of instruc-
tion for cadets of all the services; and to request a US officer to advise
the G-2 section. Further evidence of military cooperation is the signing
of a four-year agreement for a US Naval Mission to replace the contract
ehich expired this spring.
Venezuela continues to be eager to purchase US military equipments
and has urgently requested forty-M-24 tanks, and spare parts for F-147
planes. Negotiating arms purchases and discussing the spare parts and
replacement problem uere the principal objects of the recent official
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Weekly Contributions,
(CIA Working Paper)
Situation Memorandum 55-93
38-50 - 3 19 September 1950
visit to the US of Lt, Col, Felix Roan floreno, Chief of Staff. While
Venezuela will probablercontinue some purchases from non-US sources
whenever the price differential is great (as in the recent contract
with British Vickers for two destroyers), US-Venezuelan military coop-
eration has increased.
Subversive
-"---UBEETnist capabilities in Venezuela have declined somewhat as a
result of the dissolution in May of the "red" Communist Party, but it
is as yet too early to estimate with any accuracy the extent of the
cline,. During the past three months the Communists have remained rela-
tively quiet, and it is believed that their primary objectives at this
time are to strengthen and preserve the underground organization, and to
establish a policy upon ehich future cooperation with AD elements could
he based, The Stockholm peace petition has begun to be circulated, but
apparently on a minor scale and covertly. Party-line propaganda on Korea
has been limited by the unavailability of legal media and the apparently
infrequent appearance of clandestine publications. There has been some
slight evidence of withdrawal of labor support from the Communists, It
is possible that the junta may dissolve the renaining legal Communist
Party (the smaller but also Soviet-oriented Partido Revolucionario del
Proletariat? - Comunista? also known as the "black" Communist Party),
International
-----Mntinuing support by Venezuela of the US position vis-a-vis the
Seeiet Union is practically assured, Official and to a great extent
unofficial reaction to the Korean situation has been favorable to the
US. It is believed that Venezuela's stated reason for withholding direct
military assistance is valid in that the armed forces are undoubtedle
needed for the protection of the petroleum industry.
Relations between Venezuela and the USSR will probably continue to
be maintained at a min.isaunt level, since it is unlikely that the Vene-
zuelan government will permit the exchange of ambassadors for some time.
In these circumstances it is possible that, while the Soviet Embassy in
Caracas continues to function, international Communist interests are being
handled chiefly through the Czechoslovak legation, whose commercial attache,
Richard Falbr, seems to devote most of his time to Communist Party rather
than commercial affairs,
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eohly Contributicns,
() IA orking Paper)
Situaticn remerendum 56-50
78-50 19 September 1950
The Current Situaticn in Chile
(Summa -- The Gonzalez Videla governnent appears reasonably
&blo despite political struggles over economic planning,
religious education, and the Bolivian corridor issue* The
economic position has been generally favorable, but prospects
for the future are uncertain. Loyalty, efficiency, and train-
ing of the armed forces remain at a satisfactory level; morale
is gradually improving* Chilean Communists are becoming more
militant and more active mmeeg labor groups. EXcept for a
temporary setback vis-a-vis Peru and Bolivia, Chiles relations
with other Latin American countries remain basically unchanged:
that country continues te support the US in matters involving
the East-'ioot strugtle.
-- The increased labor uneasiness believed largely
attributable to the Communists ecnstitutes a potential danger
to US security interests in Chile.)
Political
The Gonsillez Vieela government appears reasenably stable despite a
series of political tensions thet have arisen during the recent quarter
concerning Finance Tanister Vial's economic projects, the religious educes-
tion bill, and the Bolivian corridor issue* The "Vial Plan" -- which
proposed that wage increases for the .public employees, armed forces,
judiciary, and teachers be financed by increased taxes -- met ouch eerious
opeosit'on in the conservative senate that the government was forced to
compromise with the opposition and remove a series of direct taxes in
order to assure its passage. Furthermore, Vial's new exchange rates
schedule provoked the resignation of the rinister of Economy and a near
cabinet crisis* In this ministerial feud the Presidents support of Vial,
a Social Christian Conservative and former personal enemy, over a member
of Gonzalez, own Radical Party has enhanced the prestige of Vial -- who
was originally expected to have a short-lived political career -- ad has
demonstrated once again
Of shorter duraticn, but no loss serious a threat to tae
unity of the coalition, was the bitter controversy that arose from the
advancement or legislation to require religious instruction (Catholic) in
the public sohools The pigeenholing of the bill for this session of
congress- has averted open conflict on this delicate issue and helped the
President, who is both a Catholic and a ason, save faces Repercussions
from the "Bolivian corridor controversy" -- that regarding Chile's ceding
to Bolivia a corridor to the sea in exchange for access to certain Bolivian
lakes which could be used for irrigating Chile's arrid north -- appear to
have suboided somewhat insofar as the basic issue is concerned. Instead,
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Sitnation Memorandum 66-60
the opposition is attaching great importance to Foreign Minister Valor's
secret exchange of notes with Bolivia on the subjeot of the corridor in
SU effort to prejudice Walker's -- and therefore the government's --
ohaeeec of filling a senatcrial vacancy created by the death of Arturo
Alecsandri. While such a naneuver may succeed in keeping Walker from
becoming a candidate, it is believed that it will Pall short of its
desired objective of depriving the government of the much-needed sena-
torial post.
It is not expected that any substantial change in deovernment sta-
bility-el/1 occur during coming months. It is true that the government's
opponents will continue to attack its economic polities and that adverse
economic developments and continued labor unrest may jeopardize the nenee
too-strong administration control of the government. Bowser, numerous
attacks on the administration have failed to impair the cohesiveness of
the eovernment coalition, aed it maybe expected that the administration
will benefit from eased pressure when congress adjourns, probably this
monan,
Eboeomic
-"Chile's economic position during the recent quarter has been generally
favorable, but prospects for the future are uncertain. A sustained demand
for copper at highly renunerative prices -- despite the reimposition by
the US of the copper import tax -- has remained the most favorable factor,
slightly outweighing the unfavorable effects of oontinued monetary inflae
tion? reduced production and income resulting from continuous strikes,
and genera/ economic uncertainty caused by lengthy legislative oonsidera-
tion of economic measures. While it is too early to note the impaot on
the economy of the various economic measures adopted during the last
quaeter? it is estimated that they will not measure up to the government
expectations. The implementation of the "Via/ Plan" will mean an increase
be government expenditures of almost 29% over the budget figure of 15.7
billion pesos for 1950, only part of which will be finanoed by taxation.
Moreover, the wage increases and addition/al social security benefits
established by this bill and the former one benefitting private employees
mill probably cause in other sectors similar demands for wage increases
and special security benefito. Furthermore, the adoption of now multiple
exchange rates not only shelves the plan for establishing a single exchange
rate but also foreshadows further price increases because of the upward
shift in the rates for most imports. Unless the receipts from major
exports -- particularly copper -- can be stepped up substantially and
farther taxation can be enacted before the end of the year, the prospects
for a budgetary deficit this year are very strong.
sOrganised labor (both Communiat and non-Communist) is becoming
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(CIA Workina: Paper)
Situation Memorandum 56-50
increasingly powerful and will probably continue to exert considerable
influence on governmental economic policy and legislation. A now, still
loosely formed, labor federation (Nevimiento Unitario Nacional de Trabw.
jadores NUNT) appears to be a potentially powerful group since it claims
the affiliation of twelve important federations of labor unions in addition
to the support and cooperation of both tho Socialist and Communist CTCh ?
and the ;one-established but politically dormant confederation the Carr-
federacion General de Traba'adoros (CGT). Continued pressure from or
groups appears e y ur e ialance of the year.
!Anton'',
Loyalty, efficiency, and training of the armed forces remain at a
satisfactory level; morale is gradually improving as a result of the salary
increase of approximately 35 percent recently Granted the army, navy, air
force, and carabinoros (national police). Congressional authorization to
augment the-TallariTge from 20,000 to 25,000 is considered a WOG to meet
the needs of riFaiarpopulation rather than an indication of an imminent
stepping-up of polio? activities. Chilean air force training is expected
to improve when the 27 reconditioned training planos recently purchased
from the US -- but grounded during a congressional investigation -- are
put into service.
Subversive
Digliig the past three months Chilean Comnuniste have improved their
position. They suffered somewhat, it is true, when they stirred up some
popular indignation against themselves by stoning the US EMbassy. Commu-
nists have, however, continued to enjoy the increased measure of freedom
which they Gained after the present cabinet -- which has a more leftist
makeup than its predecessor -- came into office. They have continued their
political activities, have made them more overt and militant, and have also
instigated or prolonged strikes in the nitrate and copper industries. Commu-
nists have made slight gains in labor influence and have enhanced their
potential for creating labor disturbances by penetration of the now labor
organization (ruNT) and to a certain extent the white-collar workers' federa-
tion (JUNECH). The Ceramists have continued to fight against the Defense
of Democracy Lau and maybe expected to go on with the campaign, though
their chances for success in the irLediate future appear to be remote. In
other respects Communists may be expected at least to hold their own during
the coming quarter.
International
cop for a temporary setback vis-a-vis Peru and Bolivia over the
Bolivian corridor issue and a slight improvement of relations with Haiti
accompanying the renewal of relations with the military junta, Chile's
relabions with other Latin American countrias remain basically unchanged.
Chile continues in general to follow US policy and to support the US in
international organizations. Popular and official cement -- except among
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(CIA :.-orking Paper)
Situation Lemorandum 56-50
Communists -- has been highly laudatory of the US response to the UN call
for aid in Korea. In matters involving the East-'Test strugzle Chile is
expected to continuo to support the US and to uphold her promise to take
steps to maintain the flay of copper and nitrates to the US. The most
recent evidence of Chile's animosity towards the USSR has been a stiff
note to the Dose= governrant in which Chile denounced all Soviet claims
to Antarctic territory.
RET 10.
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