LIVESTOCK NUMBERS AND MEAT PRODUCTION IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000300110002-2
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• Document Page Count: 77
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 20, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 17, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE. REPORT
LIVESTOCK NUMBERS AND MEAT PRODUCTION
IN THE USSR
CIA/RR PR-28
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
17 June 1953 COCUME
Ol DECLASSIFIED
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
LIVESTOCK NUMBERS AND M EAT PRODUCTION IN THE USSR
CIA/RR PR-28
(ORR.Project 53-51)
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Additional data or comments
which may be available to the user are solicited.
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This report is a preliminary appraisal of livestock numbers and
meat production in the USSR, based substantially on Soviet statis-
tics, which may reflect deliberate Soviet propaganda as well as
Soviet errors in collection and interpretation of the raw data.
Primarily descriptive rather than analytical, this report is designed
to serve as a base for further analytical study rather than as an
end in itself.
There are several specialized analytical studies now under way
which will provide a check on Soviet statistics on livestock numbers
and a means to determine production and consumption of meat in the
USSR. These studies include the following:
1. A provincial approach to Soviet livestock numbers, which will
serve as a means of checking over-all Soviet livestock numbers claimed
in the past and planned for the future and as a basis for estimating
the production of livestock products;
2. An input-output approach to the Soviet meat-packing industry,
which will examine that portion of total meat production which is
processed and distributed through government channels, in order to
provide a means for estimating over-all meat production and consump-
tion, including stockpiles;
3. An analysis of the relationship of feed, including roughages
and concentrates, to livestock numbers as a means of evaluating the
reliability of data on numbers claimed in the past and planned for
the future. In this study an attempt will be made to examine live-
stock numbers in terms of animal units based on the feed require-
ments of the various categories of livestock.
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1D~.N~IAL
CONTENTS
Page
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Development of the Livestock Industry .. . . . . . . . . 3
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. Prewar Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. World War II Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
4+. Postwar Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
5. Reliability of Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
II. Distribution' of Livestock by Ownership Category . . . . 11
III. Geographical Distribution of Livestock . . . . . . . 12
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2. Horses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3. Cattle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4. Swine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5. Sheep and Goats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
6. Over-All Pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
IV. Slaughter Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1. Production and Imports in 1951 . . . . . . . . . . 22
2. Per Capita Availabilities in 1951 . : . . . . . . . 24
3. Production in 1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4. Production under the Fifth Five Year
Plan (1951-55) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
VI. Capabilities and Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1. Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2. Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
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Appendixes
Page
Appendix A. Summer and Winter Livestock Numbers . . . . .
29
Appendix B. Livestock Numbers in Specified Republics,
Oblasts, and Krays, 1 January 1938 . . ? ? .
33
Appendix C. Livestock Feeding Practices . . . . . . . .
45
Appendix D. Statistics on Meat Production . . . . . . . .
63
Appendix E. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67
Appendix F. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . .
69
Appendix G. Sources and Evaluation of Sources . . . . . .
71
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CIA/RR PR-28
(ORR Project 53-51)
~AL
SECURITY INFORMATION
LIVESTOCK NUMBERS AND MEAT PRODUCTION IN THE USSR*
Summary
Livestock numbers in the-USSR have fluctuated periodically.
Losses from 1916 to 1921 resulting from civil war and drought were
more than made up by gains from 1923 to 1928 under the New Economic
Policy. These gains were canceled by losses from 1928 to 1933
resulting from forced collectivization under the First Five Year
Plan (1928-32). The losses in part were made up by 1938. The last
drop in Soviet livestock numbers, suffered during World War II, has
been largely offset by postwar gains. Even so, there was virtually
no net gain in total livestock numbers from 1916 to 1951, allowance
being made for differences between summer and winter numbers.
Since World War II, livestock numbers in the USSR have been
differently distributed by category than before World War II, as is
reflected in a comparison between 1952 and 1938 numbers for each
category included in this report (horses, cattle, swine, and. sheep
and goats). In 1952, horse numbers (15 million) were much lower
than in 1938; cattle numbers (59 million) were about the same; swine
numbers (27 million) were much lower; and sheep and goat numbers
(107 million) were very much higher.**
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) envisions further increases
in all categories of livestock. The over-all goal for the end of
1955 for livestock is too high to be realistic. Of the specific
increases required during the last 4 years of the Plan (1 January
1952 to 1 January 1956) in order to meet the Plan goals, only that
for horses (3 percent) is entirely feasible. Those for cattle
(15 percent), for swine (31 percent), and for sheep and goats (47
percent) are less likely of attainment. Although all the planned
increases are biologically feasible, it is believed unlikely that
This report contains information available as of 15 December 1952.
The figures given above represent numbers as of the beginning of
the year indicated (winter census).
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the availability of feed-grains and the expansion of ranges, pas-
tures, and other sources of roughage will be sufficient to support
all the planned increases. One or another of the planned increases
could, however, be achieved at the expense of other classes of
livestock. Although the figures of the Fifth Five Year Plan will
generally not be met, the total livestock numbers can be expected
to increase gradually until there is a poor year for pastures and
crops.
Since the beginning of collectivization, under the First Five
Year Plan (1928-32), the relative importance of the socialized
flocks and herds owned by state farms or by collective farms has
been increased at the expense of the privately owned flocks and
herds of members of collective farms, of private farmers, and of
urban workers. By 1 January 1938, in spite of a temporary relaxa-
tion of the collectivization drive, the socialized sector accounted
for 73 percent of the horses, 31 percent of the cattle, 29 percent
of the swine, and 41 percent of the sheep and goats. Preliminary
estimates as of 1 January 1952 indicate that the socialized sector
then accounted for nearly all of the of the horses, 61 percent of
the cattle, 76 percent of the swine, and 78 percent of the sheep
and goats. Under the Fifth Five Year Plan the socialized sector is
scheduled to increase at a more rapid rate than the rate for the
livestock industry as a whole.
Meat production in the USSR has been increasing yearly since
19)+7. The total meat production in the USSR in 1951 is estimated
to have been 3,1+60,000 metric tons. This amount was still 13 per-
cent less than the 3,980,000 metric tons estimated to have been
produced in the USSR in 1938. Meat production for 1952 is esti-
mated to have been 3,715,000 metric tons, an amount 7.1+ percent
greater than 1951 production but still below 1938 production. The
main reason why meat production has not regained 1938 levels is
that swine numbers and the slaughter of swine are still considerably
below prewar levels.
The USSR has been supplementing its production of meat with im-
ports from the European and Asiatic Satellites. The total annual
domestic production of meat in 1951 was 17 kilograms per capita.
When imports from all the Satellites are added, the total per capita
meat availabilities for 1951 add up to about 19.2 kilograms as com-
pared with 21.1+ kilograms for 1938. Per capita meat production is
not likely to increase significantly during the period of the Fifth
Five Year Plan.
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Deliveries of livestock to government slaughterhouses repre-
sent about 30 percent of the total slaughter of livestock. The
rest of the livestock is slaughtered on collective farms or pri-
vately. The meat which is processed by the government is con-
sumed mainly by the military forces and by other favored groups.
The Fifth Five Year Plan calls for an 80 to 90 percent increase
in government meat production. The bottleneck will be in the con-
struction of the required refrigeration facilities.
The only meat available in the USSR for stockpiling is that
processed in government meat-packing plants. The primary limitation
on stockpiling is the availability of adequate refrigeration.
I. Development of the Livestock Industry.
1. Introduction.
Livestock numbers in the USSR have fluctuated periodically.
Losses from 1916 to 1921 resulting from civil war and drought were
more than made up by gains from 1923 to 1928 under the New Economic
Policy. These gains were canceled by losses from 1928 to 1933 re-
sulting from forced collectivization under the First Five Year Plan
(1928-32). These losses in part were made up by 1938. The last
drop in Soviet livestock numbers, suffered during World War II, has
been offset by postwar gains, allowance being made for differences
between summer and winter numbers. Even so, there was virtually no
gain in total livestock numbers from 1916 to 1951. J*
2. Prewar Numbers.
According to the 1916 summer livestock census** in tsarist
Russia, which covered an area only slightly greater than the present-
day USSR, there were 35.8 million horses, 60.6 million cattle, 20.9
million swine, and 121.2 million sheep and goats. J
* Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed in
Appendix G.
** The summer census of livestock numbers is usually taken at the
end of June after the spring births. Inasmuch as there is very
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When the Bolsheviks came into power in 1917, they inherited
a Russia minus Finland, the Baltic States, Rumanian Bessarabia,
Congress Poland, and certain other Polish territories (those now
incorporated in western Belorussia and western Ukraine). During the
years in which the German armies occupied the western and southwestern
regions of Russia, which were important livestock-producing areas,
the numbers of horses, cattle, swine, and sheep and goats had been
reduced. Livestock numbers had been further reduced during the civil
war as a consequence of slaughter by the contending factions endeavor-
ing to live off the land. Successive droughts in 1920 and 1921 also
took their toll. The summer census of 1922 indicated 24.1 million
horses, 45.8 million cattle, 12.1 million swine, and 91.1 million
sheep and goats.* 3/
Under the relatively stable political conditions which pre-
vailed in the USSR from 1923 to 1928, the period of the New Economic
Policy, the Soviet livestock industry gradually recovered. With the
breakup of the large estates, many small holdings were increased in
acreage, and numerous additional small holdings were formed. The
government policy was that every farm household should have its own
livestock. This policy, coupled with the high prices then obtainable
for livestock products, encouraged the recently augmented independent
peasantry to increase their flocks and herds. Under the system of
free enterprise thus established, horse numbers had reached 33.5.
million by the summer of 1928. These numbers were almost as great
as in the larger territory of tsarist Russia in 1916. At the same
time, the number of cattle, swine, and sheep and goats compared as
follows with those found on farms in the former empire of the tsars:
70.5 million cattle, a 16-percent increase over 1916; 26 million
swine, a 2)+-percent increase; and 1+6.7 million sheep and goats, a
21-percent increase. J
During the period of the First Five Year Plan the livestock
industry of the USSR received a severe setback. The wide-scale
little slaughter before June, summer livestock numbers usually repre-
sent the maximum number of livestock in the year. (Summer numbers
are given in Table 4, Appendix A.) No summer figures are available
for Soviet livestock numbers for years after 1938.
* Because of territorial changes, these data are not comparable
with the census of 1916 but rather establish a starting point for
an understanding of the livestock industry in the USSR.
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introduction of collectivization in the early 1930's was accompanied
by violence on the part of government agencies and retaliation in
the form of slaughter of private livestock by the peasant owners. In
addition to mass slaughter, other factors contributing to the great
losses in livestock numbers during this period were the increase in
the incidence of disease resulting from the concentration of large
numbers of livestock in the socialized herds of the newly formed
collective farms, poor handling and feeding of the animals, and in-
adequate housing.. By 1933, the low year of the collectivization
drive, horse and cattle numbers had decreased by almost 50 percent
as compared with 1928, swine numbers by over 50 percent, and sheep
and goat numbers by almost 66 percent. In the summer of 1933 there
were in the USSR (as then constituted) 16.6 million horses, 38.4 mil-
lion cattle, 12.1 million swine, and 50.2 million sheep and goats. J
All categories of livestock, except horses, showed substantial
increases in numbers from 193+ to 1938, as a consequence of government
encouragement of individual ownership of livestock by collective farm
members and of a series of good harvests, with the exception of that
of 1936. J Another important factor of a purely statistical nature
which accounted for a large part of the reported increase in livestock
numbers was an improvement in the method of collecting statistical
data. This improvement made possible the enumeration of a greater
proportion of actual numbers on farms. J Despite the very large
increase in livestock numbers during the 193+-38 period, precollec-
tivization totals had not been attained by 1938, except for swine,
which showed a significant increase. The summer livestock census of
1938 indicated 17.5 million horses, slightly over half the 1928
total; 63.2 million cattle, 90 percent of the 1928 total; 30.6 mil-
lion swine, almost 118 percent of the 1928 total; and 102.5 million
sheep and goats, somewhat over 66 percent of the 1928 total. 2/
The 1938 summer census was the last Soviet census giving the
summer numbers for livestock. Subsequently, the USSR has published
only a winter census of livestock numbers.* The winter census of
1 January 1938 gave the following numbers: horses, 16.2 million;
cattle, 50.9 million; swine, 25.7 million; and sheep and goats,
* The winter census normally represents the minimum number of ani-
mals during the year, since the heaviest slaughter of livestock
takes place in the fall and births take place in the spring. (Win-
ter numbers are given in Table 5 and 6, Appendix A.)
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66.6 million. These figures showed substantial increases over the
low point of 1 January 1934, except for horse numbers, which regis-
tered only a 5-percent gain over the 1934 figure of 15.4 million.
Cattle numbers were over 50 percent greater than the 1934 figure
of 33.5 million; swine numbers, almost 125 percent greater than the
1934 figure of 11.5 million; and sheep and goat numbers, 82 percent
greater than the 1934 figure of 36.5 million. LO/
Despite grandiose Soviet plans for increasing livestock num-
bers under the Third Five Year Plan (1938-42), 1i total livestock
numbers showed relatively slight changes between 1938 and the Ger-
man invasion of 1941. Horse numbers and sheep and goat numbers
increased as compared with 1938, whereas cattle and swine decreased.
There were 17.6 million horses, almost a 9-percent increase over 1938,
and 83.0 million sheep and goats, a 25-percent increase over 1938.
Cattle and swine numbers, on the other hand, were less than in 1938.
There were 49.5 million cattle, a 3-percent decrease, and 22.6 mil-
lion swine, a 12-percent decrease, as compared with livestock num-
bers on 1 January 1938. L2/
3. World War II Numbers.
The Soviet livestock industry again suffered severe losses
during World War II. The areas occupied by the Germans included
such important Soviet livestock regions* as the Ukraine (Region
III), Belorussia (Region Irb), the Lower Don-North Caucasus (Re-
gion IV), and the Volga (Region VI). The occupied area may have
lost more than 50 percent of its cattle and as much as 75 to 80 per-
cent of its swine and sheep and goats because of evacuation to the
east and destruction by the rival armies moving back and forth over
this area. The loss of horses was even more severe.
Decreases in the never-occupied areas,*? though not so large
as in the occupied areas, were still considerable. These decreases
* The term region in this report refers to the economic regions
defined and numbered on CIA Map 12048, 9-51, USSR: Economic Regions.
** Never-occupied USSR includes all of Asiatic USSR and that part
of European USSR lying north of the oblasts of Stalingrad, Voronezh,
Orel, and Kursk and east of Smolensk Oblast. It also includes the
unoccupied parts of Kalinin and Leningrad oblasts, and of the Karelo-
Finnish ASSR, as well as Dagestan ASSR and the former Chechen-Ingush
ASSR in the south.
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were caused primarily by diminished feed supplies, an increase in
.the incidence of disease, and mismanagement and poor animal hus-
bandry practices. The last-mentioned factors reflected losses of
equipment and of experienced personnel.
In 1939 and 1940, considerably larger numbers of livestock
were placed at the disposal of.the Soviet authorities by the seizure
and annexation of the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania; of certain eastern districts of Poland; and of Rumanian
Bessarabia, together with the northern part of the Bukovina and
several thousand square miles of Finnish territory. In 1945,
additional livestock were acquired by the USSR with the acquisition
of a segment of German East Prussia (Kaliningrad Oblast) and of
Czechoslovak Carpatho-Ukraine (Trans-Carpathian Oblast). Postwar
boundaries include all the above areas in addition to the territory
held by the USSR in 1938.
In all these areas, however, as in. the prewar territory of
the USSR, there were significant wartime losses. In the entire area
included in postwar USSR, livestock numbers reached their low point
in the winter of 1943-44.
It is estimated that as of 1 January 1944 there were in this
area 11.5 million horses, 42 percent below the comparable 1938 fig-
ure of 19.9 million*; 40.5 million cattle, 32 percent below the com-
parable 1938 figure of 59.2 million; 8.2 million swine, 74 percent
below the comparable 1938 figure of 31.6 million; and 67.8 million
sheep and goats, 7 percent below the comparable 1938 figure of 73.1
million.**
4. Postwar Numbers.
Livestock numbers increased slightly during 1944 and 1945,
but decreased with the drought of 1946. Since 1947, livestock
The range of decline in horse numbers becomes 51 percent if the
low} point of 10.5 million in 1946 is compared with the 1, January 1941
figure of 91.3 million.
** The decrease in sheep and goat numbers shows an even greater
loss, 26 percent, if 1 January 1944 numbers are compared with the
1 January 1941 estimate of 91.6 million sheep and goats.
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numbers have increased steadily. As of 1 January 1952, estimates
indicated 14.7 million horses, 58.8 million cattle, 26.7 million
swine, and 107.5 million sheep and goats. 13
Since the end of World War II the trend in livestock owner-
ship has been toward the enlargement of the socialized flocks and
herds at the expense of the privately owned flocks and herds, espe-
cially those privately owned by individual members of collective
farms. Livestock in the socialized flocks and herds on collective
farms has increased absolutely and relatively as compared with
total Soviet numbers, whereas livestock in private hands has been
decreasing annually both absolutely and relatively. (See Table 1*
for distribution of livestock by ownership category.) The Fifth
Five Year Plan (1951-55) proposes to continue the trend toward in-
creases in the socialized flocks and herds on collective farms at
the expense of privately owned livestock.
The Fifth Five Year Plan calls for the following percentage
increases from 1 January 1951 to 1 January 1.956: horses, 10 to 12
percent; cattle, 18 to 20 percent; swine, 45 to 50 percent; and
sheep and goats, 60 to 62 percent. 14 These percentages applied
to the 1 January 1951 estimates give the following, planned numbers
for 1 January 1956: horses, 15.1 million; cattle, 67.5 million;
swine, 35 million; and sheep and goats, 158.4 million.
The fulfillment of the plan to increase horse numbers offers
no particular difficulties. It involves an increase of only 3 per-
cent over 1 January 1952, the.latest date for which estimates are
available. The Plan figure would still be 25 percent short of the
1938 level. It is unlikely that the 1938 level will ever be re-
gained. Because of the replacement of horses by mechanical power,
horse numbers in the USSR probably will continue a long downward
trend similar to that which has taken place in the US since 1918.
The planned cattle numbers for 1 January 1956 represent a
15-percent increase over numbers on 1 January 1952, which amounts to
an annual increase of 3 to 4 percent. This increase in any one year
is very possible. The attainment of the goal, however, will depend
on continued favorable weather for the next 3 years and will require
increases in summer pastures and in roughage for carrying the cattle
through the winter. As indicated in Tables 10, 11, and 12 of Appendix
C, hay, straw, and chaff, together with potatoes and feed-roots,
account for most of the caloric intake of cattle. Even cows, which
* P. 13, below.
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are generally better fed than other types of cattle, receive rel-
atively little grain, oilcake, or concentrates.
The planned increases in swine numbers are higher than those
for cattle, representing a 31-percent increase over estimated num-
bers on 1 January 1952. The over-all increase amounts to an annual
increase of 7 percent. There is a question as-to whether the avail-
ability to feed, particularly grain and potatoes, will support an
increase of these proportions. Swine (see Table 13, Appendix C)
are fed chiefly grain and potatoes. It is very doubtful that over
one-third more grain and potatoes could be made available to make
possible a swine increase of 31 percent in 4 years, particularly in
view of the demands for grain and potatoes by the increasing popula-
tion in the USSR. Grain has been in shorter supply than before the
war, and, although other feeds for swine can be substituted for grain
and potatoes, the substitutes. are not generally available in suffi-
cient quantities to permit the rise of 31 percent.
The planned increase in numbers of sheep and goats is the
highest of all. The planned sheep and goat numbers represent a
47-percent increase over estimated numbers on 1 January 1952. This.
increase amounts to an annual increase of over 9 percent. Although
both sheep and goats subsist almost exclusively on pasturage, sup-
plemented by relatively small quantities of hay, straw, and chaff,
the total number of sheep and goats is already at record or near-
record levels, and there are insufficient ranges and pastures in the
sheep areas to maintain such a high level. It is claimed by the USSR
that irrigation projects which are proposed or under development will
increase pastures and allow tremendous increases in sheep numbers.
Some of these irrigation projects,- however, will not be completed
until the late 1950's.. Thus the increases which will be possible in
sheep numbers by 1956 probably will not be so large as planned.
Although they are biologically feasible, it is unlikely that
all the increases projected in the Fifth Five Year Plan will be
achieved. These increases are related directly to the availability
of feed-grains, concentrates, and roughages, which probably will not
be sufficient to support all the increases projected. One or more
of the planned increases could be achieved at the expense of other
categories of livestock. In any event, the total livestock numbers
for the USSR can be expected to increase gradually until there is a
poor year for pastures and crops, when the winter census of livestock
will show a decrease.
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5. Reliability of Statistics.
Most of the figures on livestock numbers in this report are
drawn from official Soviet sources. These figures may reflect delib-
erate Soviet propaganda as well as Soviet errors in the collection
and interpretation of the raw data.
The figures may be too high or too low, depending upon the
impression which the Russians were trying to give. For example,
during and immediately after the collectivization drive, attempts
were made to minimize the extent of the losses and to maximize the
number of animals still alive. By 1938 the collectivization furor
had died down, and it was no longer necessary to conceal the losses
incurred in 1930-33. Furthermore, if the advantages claimed for
collectivization were to be made manifest to the Soviet people, it
was essential that the 1 January 1938 livestock numbers following
the year of maximum Soviet effort under the Second Five Year Plan
(1933-37) be larger than the 1933 numbers, the low numbers under
the Communist regime. Consequently, 1933 numbers published in 1938
and later were much lower than earlier published. numbers for 1933.
(Statistics on summer numbers are given in Table 1+, Appendix A, and
statistics on winter numbers are given in Tables 5 and 6, Appendix A.)
The reliability of the Soviet estimates of livestock numbers
is limited. During the 1920's livestock estimates were based on a
small sample. In the early 1930's, livestock numbers were estimated
on the basis of information gathered from tax records. l5/ The
taxes on farmers at that time were based on adult animals. The tax
collectors, therefore, were not too interested in the number of
young animals. The farmers, on the other hand, tended to under-
estimate.or conceal some of their adult animals, although they were
quite willing to reveal considerable information regarding young
animals and annual births. Thus it is likely that statistics for
this period were generally on the low side in the reporting of adult
livestock numbers. Even during the middle 1930's, when improvements
were made in the gathering of livestock statistics, the efforts of
farmers to have their livestock numbers underestimated continued.-'
By 1935 and 1936, Soviet collection of data on livestock
numbers as well as Soviet estimating techniques had begun to improve.
Since World War II the Soviet government has attempted to strengthen
its control over agriculture. One facet of this control is mani-
fested in the increased numbers of people employed in the collection
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and presentation of livestock data for official consumption. Thus
published statistics are currently less likely to be affected by
error than by bias. As recently as July 1952, however, the Soviet
press carried considerable criticism of the keeping of livestock
records by collective farms and district organizations. L7/
II. Distribution of Livestock by Ownership Category.
Since the beginning of collectivization in the USSR, there has
been a trend toward improving the relative position of livestock
in the socialized flocks and herds at the expense of the privately
owned flocks and herds. In the early period of collectivization,
during the early 1930's, the socialized flocks and herds were built
up by virtual confiscation of the livestock of peasants who were
then being forced onto collective farms. Independent farms were
stripped of livestock by excessive taxation. At the beginning of
the First Five Year Plan (1928-32), forced collectivization was
attended by excessive slaughter of animals owned by peasants who
resented turning their livestock over to the collective farming
groups. In order to build livestock numbers up again, the govern-
ment later discontinued confiscation and advocated the policy of
"a cow for every peasant household." By 1 January 1938, 27 percent
of the horses, 71 percent of the swine, 69 perce'ht of the cattle,
and 59 percent of the sheep and goats were privately owned by
members of collective farms, urban workers, and a few private
farmers. With the virtual disappearance of the private farmer as
a source of additional animals to build up the socialized flocks
and herds on collective farms, the government turned primarily to
the livestock owned by individual members of the collective farms.
World War II accelerated this tendency, which continued through the
Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50). By the end of the Fourth Five Year
Plan the livestock ownership situation as it existed in 1938 was
nearly reversed. On 1 January 1951, virtually all of the horses,
over 56 percent of the cattle, 67 percent of the swine, and nearly
78 percent of the sheep and goats had been socialized. Preliminary
estimates as of 1 January 1952 indicate that the socialization of
the herds of cattle and swine had continued during 1951 to the ex-
tent that 76 percent of the swine total and 61 percent of the cattle
total had been brought into the socialized flocks and herds. On
the other hand, horse numbers on collective farms, relative to total
horse numbers, increased only 1.5 percent over 1951, and the ratio
between privately owned and socialized sheep and goats remained
static.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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Livestock winter numbers for the various ownership categories
for 1938, 1951, and 1952 and the planned numbers for 1956 are com-
pared in Table l.* It gives the changes in numbers for each cate-
gory from one period to the next in percentage terms. The 1938
figures represent present boundaries and, consequently, include
the livestock of peasant farmers in formerly non-Soviet territories
which were subsequently acquired by the USSR.
The Fifth Five Year Plan calls for the following increases in
livestock in the USSR (1 January 1951 to 1 January 1956) in all
categories of ownership: horses, 10 to 12 percent; cattle, 18 to
20 percent; swine, 45 to 50 percent; and sheep and goats, 60 to 62
percent. In the socialized herds on collective farms, horses are
to be increased 14 to 16 percent; cattle, 36 to 38 percent; swine,
85 to 90 percent; and sheep and goats, 75 to 80 percent. Cattle
on state farms are to increase 35 to 40 percent; swine, 1+0 to 45
percent; and sheep and goats, 75 to 80 percent. 18 In all cases
the socialized flocks and herds on collective farms are planned to
increase at a more rapid rate than indicated for the USSR as a
whole. These relatively larger increases in the socialized live-
stock on collective farms will require a marked reduction in the
percentage of animals slaughtered for meat; or a decrease in the
percentage of animals in the privately owned sectors; or both, since
planned livestock numbers on state farms, the only other source for
additions to collective farm herds, are to remain generally constant
in relation to total numbers.
III. Geographical Distribution of Livestock. 1/
1. Introduction.
In 1938 the area now included in European USSR accounted for
the following percentagesxxx of the total livestock numbers in the
area now included in the USSR: 75 percent of the horses, or 15 mil-
lion; 68 percent of the cattle, or 40 million; 85 percent of the
swine, or 27 million; 61 percent of the sheep, or 38 million; and
38 percent of the goats, or 3.7 million.
Table 1 follows on p. 13.
This distribution applies to the year 1938 for all categories
of livestock except sheep and goats, for which additional years are
considered, as will be seen in the text.
XXX Percentage figures for geographical distribution of livestock
are rounded.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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 Approved For Releasq 1 P99/0 /02 : CIA-RQP79-Q'p93AQ903OO11 OOO2-2
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093A000300110002-2
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000300110002-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
In 1938, Asiatic USSR accounted for the following percent-
ages of the total livestock numbers in the area now included in
the USSR: 25 percent of the horses, or 5 million; 32 percent of
the cattle, or 19 million; 15 percent of the swine, or 4.6 million;
39 percent of the sheep, or 25 million; and 62 percent of the goats,
or 6 million.
These variations in the proportion of livestock in European
USSR and Asiatic USSR can be explained by the differences in the
type of agriculture practiced and in the crops raised. The very
large percentage of swine in European USSR is closely related to
the production of feed-grains, potatoes, and feed-roots. Seventy-
five percent of the horses are found in European USSR because much
of the cropland is in this area and because the horses are needed
as draft power.
Although the bulk of the cultivated land is in European
USSR, there are large areas of land in Asiatic USSR which serve as
ranges and pastures for livestock and for hay production. For this
reason, Asiatic USSR has a higher proportion of the animals which
consume only roughage cattle, sheep, and goats -- than of swine
and horses. (See Tables 9 through 15, Appendix C, for the feeding
rates for livestock.)
A parallel to this is to be found in the US, where 68 per-
cent of the swine numbers are concentrated in the north central
states,* 21 and 76 percent of the corn production is also in these
states.*- 22 There are relatively few swine in the western and
southwestern range areas of the US, which, however, support large
numbers of beef cattle and sheep.
2. Horses.
Horses have been used widely in pulling agricultural machin-
ery, in hauling loads, in the transportation of both people and
freight, and for communication. In the many areas of the USSR
where mechanical power has not yet taken over these functions, horse
numbers are closely related to such needs. In 1938 the distribution
Based on the average number of swine on farms from 1 January
19+1 to 1 January 1950 by states and for the US as a whole.
** Based on the average production of corn for all purposes,
1939-48.
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of horses in the present area of the USSR was as follows: the
Ukraine (Region III) had 4.6 million head,. or 23 percent; Central
European USSR (Region VII) had 4.1 million, or 21 percent; the
Baltic (Region IIa) and West Siberia (Region IX) each had 1.4
million, or 7 percent (see Table 2*).
3. Cattle.
The distribution of cattle is closely related to the
availability of pastures, hay, straw, chaff, and other roughage
and, in some cases, is related to the need for draft power. In
1938 the distribution of cattle in the present area of the USSR
was as follows: the Ukraine (Region III) led the economic regions
in percentage of total cattle in the USSR with 11 million head, or
19 percent; Central European USSR (Region VII) had 9.6 million, or
16 percent; West Siberia (Region IX) had 5.1 million, or 9 percent;
and the Lower Don-North Caucasus (Region IV) had 4.4 million and
the Transcaucasus (Region V) had 4 million, about 7 percent each.
4. Swine. L3/
Distribution of swine in the USSR is based upon three fac-
tors: climate, available feed-grains and feed-roots, and the reli-
gious and social customs of the people.
Climate represents a direct factor because swine are not
readily adaptable to conditions of extreme heat, cold, drought,
or excessive rainfall. Climate also plays a role in the particular
feed-grains which may be grown and which, in turn, affect the abil-
ity of an area to sustain owine.
Very few swine are found in the extensive semiarid zones of
Astrakhan' Oblast, Kazakh SSR, and the Central Asiatic republics,
where the environmental conditions are more suitable for sheep and
goats. Likewise, in the very cold tundra and taiga regions of
Siberia and in the northern'parts of European USSR the harsh climate
and the lack of feed have ruled out the breeding of swine.
In certain areas of the Transcaucasus, Kazakh SSR, and
Central Asia, large segments of the population are Mohammedans and
will neither eat pork nor raise swine.
* P. 19, below.
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The greatest concentrations of swine are in the Baltic
States, Belorussia, Kaliningrad Oblast, and the western parts of the
Ukraine -- all areas acquired by the USSR since 1939. Large numbers
of swine are also found in the remainder of the Ukraine and in Cen-
tral European USSR. Of the total swine in the USSR in 1938, the
distribution in the present area of the USSR was as follows: 9.5
million, or 30 percent, were in the Ukraine (Region III); 6.3 mil-
lion, or 20 percent, in Central European USSR (Region VII); 3.2
million, or 10 percent in the Baltic (Region IIa); and 2.9 million,
or 9 percent, in Belorussia (Region Iib).
5. Sheep and Goats.
In the USSR, as well as in the US, sheep-raising tends to be
concentrated on land which is of little use for raising crops. Sheep
subsist mainly on pastures, ranges, and the necessary roughage for
carrying them through the winter. In 1938, the distribution of sheep
in the present area of the USSR was as follows: Central European
USSR (Region VII) had 11.1 million, or 17 percept, of the sheep; the
Lower Don-North Caucasus (Region IV) had 6.9 million, or 11 percent;
the Ukraine (Region III) had 6.4 million, and Central Asia (Region Xb)
had 6.2 million, about 10 percent each; West Siberia (Region IX) had
5.7 million, 9 percent; the Volga (Region VI) had 5.1 million, 8 per-
cent; and Kazakh SSR (Region Xa) had 4.5 million, and the Transcau-
casus (Region V) had 4.3 million, 7 percent each.
Of the 9.7 million goats in the USSR in 1938, the distribution
in the present area of the USSR was as follows: 3.1 million, or 32
percent, were in Central Asia (Region Xb); 1.3 million, or 13 percent,
were in the Transcaucasus (Region V); and 1 million, or 10 percent,
were in Central European USSR (Region VII). The remainder were scat-
tered-in small percentages throughout other parts of the USSR.
The results of a preliminary study of sheep and goat num-
bers in Kazakh SSR (Region Xa) have indicated the utility of research
on livestock numbers on a regional basis. Regional studies of this
type will indicate the distribution of livestock, the trends in
distribution, and the production of livestock products in the USSR
for any given period. It should also be possible to obtain more
accurate totals of current and future livestock numbers in the USSR
by adding the regional totals. A knowledge of the capacity of the
particular region to produce feed and roughage will serve as a check
on the reliability of regional estimates.
- 17 -
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In Kazakh SSR (Region Xa), sheep and goat numbers increased
from 5.3 million head in 1938 to 14.6 million on 1 January 1949, or
an increase of 9.3 million head. For the same period, sheep and
goat numbers in the entire USSR increased by 12 million. Thus a
major redistribution of sheep and goat numbers becomes apparent for
this period. In 1949, Kazakh SSR had 17 percent of the USSR sheep
and goat numbers as compared with slightly more than 7 percent in
1938. The recent increases in sheep and goat numbers indicate that
Kazakh SSR again leads the USSR in. the production of sheep and goats
as it did in the days before collectivization. While Kazakh SSR has
gained in sheep and goat numbers, other economic regions have suffered
relative and actual losses. A whole new pattern of sheep and goat
distribution, land use, and production of sheep and goat products
emerges. 24+
6-. Over-All Pattern.
The Ukraine (Region III) is the leading livestock region of
the USSR. In 1938 the Ukraine had 23 percent of the horses, 19 per-
cent of the cattle, and 30 percent of the swine in the areas now in-
cluded in the USSR. This region had more horses, cattle, and swine
than any other economic region but was third in number of sheep and
ninth in number of goats. Large numbers of these livestock were in
the areas which were formerly Polish territory.
Central European USSR (Region VII) is the next most important
livestock region. In 1938 it had 21 percent of the horses, 16 per-
cent of the cattle, 20 percent of the swine, 18 percent of the sheep,
and 10 percent of the goats in the areas now included in the USSR.
The Baltic (Region IIa) had 7 percent of the horses, 6 per-
cent of the cattle, 10 percent of the swine, but only a small pro-
portion of the sheep and goats in the areas now included in the
USSR. Belorussia (Region IIb) had 6 percent of the horses, 5 per-
cent of the cattle, 9 percent of the swine, and. less than 5 per-
cent of the sheep and goats. West Siberia (Region IX) had 7
percent of the horses, 9 percent of the cattle, 5 percent of the
swine, and 9 percent of the sheep. (The percentage breakdown for
all of the economic regions is given in detail in Table 2.* Live-
stock numbers for specified regional areas are given in Table 7,
Appendix B.)
* Table 2 follows on p. 19.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000300110002-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
IV. Slaughter Practices.
From a Western point of view, livestock marketing in-the USSR
is insignificant. It is restricted to a few animals sold locally
in the market places designated for the use of peasants or workers
near large population centers.
Although an appreciable percentage of the livestock is delivered
annually to the Ministry of the Meat and Dairy Industry for slaughter
in government slaughter houses, the bulk of the livestock is slaugh-
tered on collective farms. On the average, the total slaughter com-
prises about 30 percent of all cattle (including calves); 100 percent
of all swine; and about 60 percent of all sheep and goats, as of
1 January for the year under consideration. In the prewar period the
quotas for deliveries to the government were apparently based on a
percentage of the estimated live weight of the total number of animals
to be slaughtered, but they are now assigned according to agricultural
land, with a variable quota per hectare.* 26 These deliveries may
average about 30 percent of the total slaughter, being somewhat higher
for swine and lower for cattle. As the trend toward collectivization
of livestock continues, greater numbers of livestock will be made
available for delivery to government agencies. The meat thus ob-
tained goes into a complicated system of government storage instal-
lations. Government stockpiling needs get primary consideration,
followed by the armed forces and, finally, by the nonfarm sectors
of the civilian population, with key industrial workers and Party
members being given preference in these sectors.
The bulk of the remaining 70 percent of the livestock is slaugh-
tered on the collective farms or privately. The meat from the animals
in the socialized herds of the collective farms is utilized by the
collective farm to pay its members or is sold directly to consumers
for cash on the various peasant markets. The meat from the animals
slaughtered by the individual members of collective farms is usually
eaten by the owner and his family.
Most of the government meat-packing plants obtain their slaugh-
ter animals from nearby rural areas. Some of the largest meat-pack-
ing plants, however, such as the Mikoyan Meat Combine in Moscow, may
receive live animals from as far away as Kazakhstan. L7/ Ukrainian
meat-packing plants obtain swine from Hungary and Rumania, 28 and
* One hectare equals 2.472 acres.
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the meat-packing plant in Ulan-Ude, in eastern Siberia, imports swine
from Manchuria and cattle, sheep, and goats from the Mongolian Peo-
ple's Republic. 29
For the first 9 months of the calendar year the government meat-
packing plants are usually able to slaughter the livestock as re-
ceived daily from government procurement agencies. However, because
about 50 percent of the annual slaughter input is received by the
plants during the 3 months from 1 October through 31 December, the
number of animals received during the peak period is in excess of
the daily slaughtering capacities. The excess animals are held on
farms or feeding lots controlled by government meat-packing plants
until they can be slaughtered. In the case of the larger meat-
packing plants, such as the Mikoyan Meat Combine in Moscow, the
livestock farms controlled by the plants are located in the rural
areas outside the city proper. 30 The principal government meat-
packing plants and collection points for livestock in the USSR are
located in Moscow, Leningrad, Ulan-Ude, Bryansk, Baku, Leninakan,
Semipalstinsk, Chkalov, Alma-Ata, and Petropavlovsk. 31 In the
past, there has been considerable criticism of the care and feeding
of the animals awaiting slaughter.
V. Meat* Situation.
1. Production** and Imports in 1951.
The total meat production in the USSR in 1951 is estimated
at 3,1+60,000 metric tons as compared with 3,980,000 metric tons
estimated to have been produced in the same area in 1938 (see
Table 3).xxx 32
A breakdown of meat production by categories of livestock
indicates considerably less production of pork and pork fat in 1951
than in 1938; a slight decrease in the production of beef and veal;
and a substantial increase in the production of mutton, lamb, and
goat meat. The 1951 production of pork and pork fats was 28 per-
cent less than the 1938 production. Beef and veal production in
* Only meat coming from cattle, swine, sheep, and goats is
considered in this report.
X For the purposes of this report, weight of meat is reported in
terms of carcass weight (bone-in) and includes all body fats.
xxx Table 3 follows on p. 23.
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Table 3
Estimated Livestock Numbers and Meat Production in the USSR
1938 J and 1951 33
Livestock Numbers
Meat Production
(Million Head)
(Thousand Metric Tons)
Livestock
1938
1951
Meat
1938
1951
Cattle
59.2
57.2
Beef a/
1,497
1,429
Swine
31.6
24.1
Pork b/
2,018
1,451
Sheep and
Goats
73.1
99.0
Mutton, Lamb, and
Goat Meat
465
580
Total Meat
3,980
3,460
a. Present boundaries.
b. Includes veal.
c. Includes lard.
1951 was almost equal to the 1938 production. The production of
mutton, lamb, and goat meat in 1951 was almost 25 percent greater
than in 1938. (See Tables 16 and 17, Appendix D. for estimates of
meat production for 1928-51.)
Between 1938 and 1951, there were changes in the relative
importance of the various meats to total meat production. In 1951,
pork represented only 42 percent of total meat production as com-
pared with over 50 percent in 1938. The production of beef and veal
in 1951 was 43 percent of the total as compared with 38 percent in
19J8. Mutton, lamb, and goat meat accounted for almost 17 percent of
the total meat production in 1951 as compared with 12 percent in 1938.
The USSR. supplements its domestic meat supply with imports
from the European 34 and Asiatic 35/ Satellites. It is estimated
that at least 450,000 metric tons of meat were imported from the
European and Asiatic Satellites during a period of 12 months begin-
ning with the summer of 1951 and ending in the summer of 1952, with
the European Satellites contributing an estimated 300,000 metric
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tons and Communist China and the Mongolian People's Republic prob-
ably contributing at least 150,000 metric tons in addition.*
2. Per Capita Availabilities in 1951.**
Meat production in the USSR on a per capita basis reached
a very low level during and shortly after World War II. (See Ta-
ble 18, Appendix D, for statistics on the per capita meat production
in the USSR and the US.) The annual per capita production of meat
in the USSR in 19+7 was 11 kilograms but had increased to an esti-
mated 17 kilograms in 1951, as compared with a per capita production
in the US of 72.4 kilograms in 1951 and an average of 76.8 kilograms
for the 1938-51 period. 36
If the supplement of 450,000 metric tons of imports is added
to the 1951 indigenous meat production of the USSR, a total of
3,897,000 metric tons is obtained. This quantity of meat distributed
over an estimated population of 203.8 million 3J indicates a total
annual per capita supply of 19.2 kilograms, of which 17 kilograms
represents indigenous production and 2.2 kilograms may be attributed
to imports. In 1938 the meat availabilities of the USSR were esti-
mated at 21.4 kilograms per capita per year for a population of
186 million, 38
3. Production in 1952.
Meat production in the USSR in 1952 is estimated at
3,715,000
metric tons. 32 The estimated composition is as follows:
1,470,000
metric tons of beef and veal; 1,600,000 metric tons of pork;
and
6+5,000 metric tons of mutton, lamb, and goat meat. According to this
preliminary estimate, meat production in 1952 showed a 7.4-percent
increase over the 1951 estimated meat production but was still only
93-3 pet'rc_ of t"c 1938 production estimated for the areas
., y ellt of U~i. meat
presently included in the USSR.
The above estimate of 1952 meat production is based mainly
on the livestock numbers at the beginning of 1952 and on a general
estimate of 1952 current weather, crop, and pasture conditions. In
* Imported largely on the hoof via Ulan-Ude.
This excludes consideration of stockpiling, which will be taken
up in a subsequent report on the meat-packing industry of the USSR.
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1952, better than average conditions seem to have prevailed for the
country as a whole. Although indications are that pasture conditions
and hay production have been slightly below average in Belorussia
(Region Irb), the Baltic (Region IIa), part of the Ukraine (Re-
gion III), and the eastern Urals (Region VII), pasture conditions
and hay production elsewhere seem to have been much better than
average. The country as a whole may be able, therefore, to carry
more livestock through the winter of 1952-53 than through the winter
of 1951-52. This probable increase in livestock numbers should result
in a lower meat production than would be the case if livestock numbers
remained steady or declined during 1952.
4+. Production under the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55).
The total meat production in the USSR can be expected to show
only gradual increases, in line with gradual increases in livestock
numbers and possible increases in productivity per animal. When
there is a poor year for pastures and crops, however, livestock herds
will generally show a decrease, which will be reflected in increased
meat production for a short period of time.
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) calls for an 80 to 90 per-
cent increase in government meat production. 40 An increase of this
size depends upon the availability of animals for slaughter and upon
meat-processing facilities. With the continued expansion of livestock
in the socialized sector, enough additional animals could be made
available to the government for slaughter in government meat-packing
plants to meet the planned increase. It appears doubtful, however,
that government processing and storage facilities could be increased
sufficiently to handle twice as many animals as are now processed.
Lack of refrigeration, as in the past, is expected to remain a
significant drawback. 41
VI. Capabilities and Intentions.
1. Capabilities.
Soviet capabilities for increasing livestock numbers will
depend primarily upon the availability of summer pastures and
particularly upon the availability of roughage which can be stored
for use through the winter for horses, cattle, sheep, and goats.
An increase in swine numbers is contingent upon the availabilities
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of feed-grains and other concentrates. A possible additional source
of concentrated feed for all livestock may be found in the relatively
large oilcake surplus at the disposal of Communist China. L2/ If
large enough quantities of this oilcake could be diverted to the
USSR, a more balanced ration and thus a more efficient use of total
feeds would be possible. This would result in improved capabilities
for increasing livestock numbers.
The only meat available for stockpiling in the USSR is that
produced in government packing plants. Of the meat processed by
government meat-packing plants, only that quantity which can be
effectively stored can be stockpiled. The :Lack of adequate refrig-
eration capacity to store meat awaiting processing or meat already
processed is a serious restriction in the meat industry. Although
many plans have been made to increase refrigeration capacity, this
was still a major problem in 1951. 43 An increase in processing
facilities, such as canning, smoking, and curing, would tend to
alleviate the refrigeration problem by providing products that
could be stored without refrigeration.
To meet the demands of an increasing population, it may be
necessary for the Soviet government to divert meat from stockpiling
requirements. It is believed, however, that the Russians would
allocate fewer supplies of meat for consumption by the civilian
population rather than divert meat intended for stockpiles.
2. Intentions.
Although meat and animal fats constitute less than 7 percent
of the total caloric intake in the Soviet diet, meat is an important
source of protein, and fats are concentrated sources of energy
particularly needed for the array and industrial workers. Increased
production of livestock at the expense of food crops, particularly
grain, would indicate a shift in the long-term policy motivated by
a desire on the part of the Soviet government for an eventual in-
crease of meat production.
If the Russians do increase livestock numbers when sufficient
feed is available, such an increase would, for a short term, have to
come at the expense of meat production. Conversely, if the Russians
increase slaughter of livestock and meat production, they cannot
increase livestock numbers to any appreciable extent. An effort by
the USSR to increase livestock numbers at a greater rate than meat
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production would seem to indicate more concern for long-term plan-
ning than for the present. On the other hand, increased slaughter
and meat production, not caused by natural factors such as disease
or drought attended by feed shortages, would indicate a more-imme-
diate concern for the current meat supply.
In some instances it may be possible to raise any of several
categories of livestock on the same feed supply. For example, horses
and cattle may live on roughly the same diet, and in range country,
sheep and cattle are to some extent interchangeable. Under these
circumstances, allocation of feed to one category of livestock rather
than to another would indicate intentions. Diversions of feed from
cattle to horses with the ultimate aim of increasing horse numbers
at the expense of cattle numbers would indicate willingness to
sacrifice meat and dairy products for draft power.
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APPENDIX A
SUMMER AND WINTER LIVESTOCK NUMBERS
Table 4
Summer Livestock Numbers in the USSR, a 1921-38
and in Tsarist Russia, 1916 LITJ
Year
Horses
Cattle
Swine
Sheep
and
Goat s
1916
35,800
6o,563
20,900
121,200
1921
29,600
50,800
19,400
110,900
1922
24,100
45,800
12,100
91,100
1923
24,600
52,900
12,900
95,300
1924
25,700
59,000
22,200
109,000
1925
27,100
62,100
21,800
122,900
1926
29,200
62,500
21,600
132,500
1927
31,600
68,000
23,200
139,700
1928
33,500
70,541
26,000
146,700
1929
34,600
67,100
20,400
147,000
1930
30,200
52,500
13,600
108,800
1931
26,200
47,900
14,400
77,700
1932
19,600
4o,700
11,600
52,100
1933
16,600
38,380
12,100
50,200
1934
15,700
42,400
17,400
51,900
1935
15,900
49,244
22,560
61,o64
1936
16,649
56,691
30,457
73,657
1937
16,700
57,000
22,800
81,300
1938
17,500
63,200
30,600
102,500
a. Prewar boundaries.
b. No summer numbers are available after 1938.
-29-
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Table 5
Winter Livestock Numbers in the USSR J 45
1932, 1934-41, 1943
Beginning
of Year
Horses
Cattle
Swine
Sheep
and
G
t
oa
s
1932
21,700
38,300
10,900
47
6oo
1934
15,400
33,500
11,500
,
36
500
1935
14,932
38,869
17,116
,
40
771.
1936
15,514
45,960
25,904
,
49,897
1937
8
15,884
47,492
20,o44
53,777
193
16,221
50,921
25,716
66,595
1939
17,100
47,900
20,500
67
500
1940
17,800
48,400
22,900
,
000
74
1941
17,600
49,546
22, 612
,
83
037
1943
11,500
35,169
12,391
,
51,986
a. Prewar boundaries.
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Table 6
Winter Livestock Numbers in the USSR / L6/
19A 1941-52, 1956
Beginning
Sheep
and
of Year
Horses
Cattle
Swine
Goat s
1938
19,900
59,200
31,600
73,100
1941
21,000
54,500
27,500
91,600
1942
14;500
46,500
20,000
85,100
1943
.12,900
41,000
14,000
71,300
1944
11,500
40,500
8,200
67,800
1945
10,800
43,300
9,000
69,000
1946
10,500
46,900
10,4oo
69,400
1947
10,800
46A00
8, 600
69, loo
1948
11,300
50,000
12,000
74,500
1949
12,000
54,000
15,000
85,100
1950
12,700
56,000
19,000
89,700
1951
13,700
57,200
24,100
99,000
1952
14, 700
58,800
26J00
107;500
1956 b
15,100
67,500
35,000
158,400
a. 1938 and 1941-45 figures adjusted to present boundaries.
b. According to the Fifth Five Year Plan.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000300110002-2
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX D
STATISTICS ON MEAT PRODUCTION
Table 16
Meat Production in the USSR a/ 57/
1928-1+0
Thousand Metric Tons
Year
Beef and Veal
Pork
Mutton, Lamb,
and Goat
Total
Meat
1928
1,779
1,396
766
3,9+1
1929
2,287
1,303
963
1+,553
1930
1,658
683
874
3,215
1931
1,1+33
551
596
2,580
1932
1.9083
640
420
2,1+3
1933
673
547
230
1,1+50
1934
680
570
259
1,509
1935
657
846
266
1,769
1936
835
1,325
31+0
2,500
1937
1,020
1,000
350
2,370
1938
1,295
1,569
444
3,308
1939
1,200
1,070
+0
2,710
1940
1, 200
1.,26o
1+80
2.,94o
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Meat Production in the USSR a/ 58/
1938 and 1941-52
Year
Beef and Veal
Pork
Mutton, Lamb,
and Goat
Total
Meat
1938
1,497
2,018
465
3,980
1941
1,360
1,650
64o
3,650
1942
1,160
1,200
600
2,960
1943
1,025
840
500
2,365
1944
960
500
433
1,893
1945
1,030
540
440
2,010
1946
1,230
645
445
2,320
1947
1,150
533
427
2,110
1948
1,230
748
46o
2,438
1949
1,330
930
521
2,781
1950
1,406
1,134
535
3,075
1951
1,429
1,451
580
3,460
1952 b/
1,470
1,600
645
3,715
a. 193 amend 199k1-45 figures adjusted to present boundaries.
b. CIA. preliminary estimate.
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Table 18
Per Capita Meat Production in the USSR and the US
for Selected Years 59/
1928,
1938, 1946-51
Kilograms
Year
USSR a/
US b/
1928
26.3 c/
69.9
1938
21.4
63.2
1946
12.3
79.9
1947
11.0
80.5
1948
12.6
72.6
1949
14.1
73.2
1950
15.3
73.4
1951
17.0
72.4
a. Based on total meat production and 1 January
population estimates.
b. Based on production from all slaughter, includ-
ing farm slaughter, and on 1 July population esti-
mates, which are adjusted for underenumeration of
children under 5 years of age.
c. 1928 Soviet figure not adjusted to postwar
boundaries.
d. Present boundaries.
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APPENDIX E
METHODOLOGY
Estimates for livestock numbers for the years through 1938 are
based almost entirely on Soviet published statistics. Estimates
for 1939-45 are based partially on Soviet statistics and partially
on observations in the field by one of the authors of this report.
To obtain 1946 livestock numbers, the planned goals given by the
Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50) were divided by the percentage in-
creases, as indicated in the Plan, envisaged over 1946. The USSR
has published 1 January totals for 1947 and 1951 and the increase
during 1951. This increase added to 1951 gave 1 January 1952. The
years 1948-50 represent preliminary CIA estimates based, in part,
on published and unpublished estimates of the Office of Foreign
Agricultural Relations, US Department of Agriculture. The 1956
planned increases are based on percentages given in the Fifth Five
Year Plan. In every case the low figure of the planned range was
accepted as the 1956 planned figure.
Estimates for meat production are based primarily on Soviet pub-
lished figures for the years prior to 1938. Estimates for 1938 and
1948-51 are preliminary CIA estimates based on published and unpub-
lished estimates of the Office of Foreign, Agricultural Relations, US
Department of Agriculture, while 1941-47 and 1952 represent pre-
liminary CIA estimates based on the relation between meat production
and livestock numbers as indicated in the years prior to 1938.
Figures for Table 4 on the distribution of livestock by owner-
ship categories break down livestock totals for 151, 1952, and
1956 by collective farms, state farms, and private owners. Figures
for state and collective farms were calculated by the application
of percentage increases on known bases. Private holdings repre-
sented the residual after collective and state farm numbers were
subtracted from over-all livestock totals.
The estimates for Tables 5 and 6, which are Soviet regional and
oblast distributions of livestock for 1938, present boundaries, are
based upon Soviet published statistics for the prewar boundaries of
the USSR. To these prewar Soviet territories are added these terri-
tories acquired by the USSR from 1938 to 1946, including areas under
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Polish, Rumanian, Czechoslovak, Finnish, German, Lithuanian, Latvian,
and Estonian jurisdiction in 1938. CIA estimates were then made for
the acquired territories based on official livestock statistics for
Poland'. Rumania, and the Baltic States and on unofficial data for
the other countries.
In Table 18, in order to obtain the Soviet annual per capita
meat production, annual total meat production was divided by annual
total population.
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APPENDIX F
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
The principal gap in information on the Soviet livestock indus-
try is in regard to livestock products, especially meat. Information
is needed on production, consumption, and stockpiling of meat.
Based on materials on the Soviet meat-packing industry already
exploited, it is anticipated that continuing research may reveal
much more about the meat-packing industry in the USSR and, as a
consequence, may furnish clues which will ultimately result in the
determination of Soviet meat production figures and consumption
patterns.
Another gap in the Soviet livestock picture is the current re-
gional distribution of the various categories of livestock. It is
believed that a historical treatment of regional livestock numbers
will ultimately fill the current gap on regional distribution,
which in turn may make possible the determination of meat production
and consumption on a regional basis.
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APPENDIX G
SOURCES AND EVALUATION OF SOURCES
1. Evaluation of Sources.
Overt Soviet sources including books, journals, and newspapers
have furnished the basis for most of the material contained in this
report. Of these Soviet sources, the most valuable were publications
of the USSR State Planning Commission, including both general studies,
such as Demidov's book on the postwar development of Soviet agricul-
ture, and statistical data, published either as results of plan ful-
fillment or as projected plans. Two basic works on the Soviet
livestock industry by Sautin and Nifontov were the primary sources
for most of the pre-World War II data. Studies by the US Departments
of State and Agriculture were the basis for wartime data, and inde-
pendent studies by Otto Schiller, Naum Jasny, Lazar Volin, and Frank
Lorimer supplied useful background material, especially for the early
postwar years.
The reliability of Soviet statistics and all foreign sources,
official and unofficial, which depend primarily on published Soviet
material, is suspect as a consequence of the official Soviet state
policy restricting the dissemination of information about all phases
of Soviet activity. Statistics, when published by the Russians,
frequently take the form of vague percentages set up on unknown bases
and are often misleading.
Secondary Western sources can be no more reliable than the Soviet
sources quoted. The background, knowledge, intellectual integrity,
and political bias of the secondary Western source, however, tend to
qualify the reliability of these official and unofficial studies.
Additional sources used were official Polish and Rumanian publi-
cations and the International Yearbook of Agriculture (for the prewar
Baltic States). These sources are generally reliable, limited pri-
marily by the statistical techniques used by a given country. The
captured German documents which were used are reliable, but again
within the limitations of the Soviet sources on which they were based.
Prisoner-of-war interrogations of Germans repatriated from the USSR
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25X1 C5b
furnished some information on Soviet meat-packing plants. Interro-
gations, although not too reliable in isolation, were apt to give a
reliable picture, when available in sufficient numbers, to permit a
median picture of an individual installation. A very intelligent
supplied some useful infor-
mation on slaughter turnover at the rayon level. Completely reliable
US statistics were furnished by the US Department of Agriculture for
comparative purposes, and a fairly reliable report from the US mil-
itary attache to Taipei, Formosa, filled in a gap with regard to the
Tuvinian People's Republic. Information on Chinese oilcake avail-
ability was obtained from Shen's book on Chinese agriculture, a gen-
erally reliable book based on pre-Communist China.
2. Sources.
1. CIA/RR, IP-229, 5 Nov 1951. S.
2. I.V. Sautin, Zhivotnovodstvo SSSR za 1916-1938 (Animal Hus-
bandry of the USSR during 1916-193b), Gosplanizdat, Moscow
and Leningrad, 19)+0, p. 4. U.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Otto Schiller, Die Krise der Sozialistischen Landwirtschaft
in der Sowjet Union (The Crisis of'Socialist Agriculture in
the Soviet Union), Paul Parey, Berlin, 1.933, p. 27. U.
6. Sautin, op. cit.
7. Lazar Volin, A Survey of Soviet Russian Agriculture, US
Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 1951, p. 152.
U.
Naum Jasny, The Socialized Agriculture of the USSR, Plans
and Performance, Stanford University Press, 1949, pp. 556-
55 . U.
8. V.P. Nifontov, Proizvodstvo zhivotnovodstva v SSSR (Production
of Animal Products in the USSR), Moscow, 1937, pp. 101-103.
U.
9. Sautin, op. cit.
10. Ibid.
11. USSR State Planning Commission, Tretiy pyatiletniy plan
razvitiya narodnogo khozyaystva soyuza SSSR, 193 -19 2 (Third
Five Year Plan for the Development of the National Economy of
the USSR, 1938-19+2), Moscow, 1939, p. 82. U.
USSR State Planning Commission, Gosudarstvenyy planrazvitiya
narodnogo khozyaystva SSSR na 1971 State Plan for the Develop-
ment of the National Economy of the USSR, in 19+1), American
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Council of Learned Societies reprint, Baltimore, 1951,
pp. 4-5. U.
12. Louis G. Michael, The 1943-44 and 1944-45 Meat Situation in
the Soviet Union in Relation to Lend-Lease Supplies (Includ-
ing Livestock Worksheets)., American Embassy, Moscow, Feb 1945?
U.
13. CIA ORR, D/M consultation with US Department of Agriculture,
Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, Washington, D.C. R.
14. Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
15. V.P. Nifontov, Proizvodstvo zhivotnovodstva v SSSR, Moscow,
1937, p. 102. U.
16. Ibid., pp. 102-103.
17. Sotsialisticheskoye zemledeliye (Socialist Agriculture),
9 Jul 1952, as reported in The Current Digest of the Soviet
Press, Vol. IV, No. 28, p. 2U. U.
18. Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
19. Main Administration for Statistics of the.Republic of Poland.,
Statystyka rolnicza (Statistics of Agriculture), Polish
Statistics Series C, No. 104, Warsaw, 1939. U.
Main Administration for Agricultural Economics, Rumanian
Ministry of Agriculture for Provinces, Statistica:
Animalelor domestics pasarilos de curte si stu ilor cu
albine pe anul 1937 Statistics: Domestic Animals, Poultry,
and Beehives for the Year 1937), Bucharest, 1938. U.
International Institute of Agriculture, International Year-
book of Agriculture Statistics. 1938-39, pp. 61, 97, 100,
390-7390., 394, 0 U.
Sautin, o . cit., pp. 4-107.
GMDS X-67 c 12-44/244, AGO, USA, German State Statistical
Office, Die Landwirtschaft der Sowjet Union (The Agriculture
of the Soviet Union), Berlin, Nov 19 2. C.
Volin, . cit.
USARMA, Taipei, Formosa, ID 866885, Report No. R-1-52,
2 Jan 1952, p. 7. U.
Bol'sha a Sovetskaya entsiklo edi a (Great Soviet Encyclo-
pedia., Ogiz, Moscow, 1947, p. 934. U.
S.F. Demidov, Razvitiye sel'skogo khozyaystva v poslevoyennoy
pyatiletke (The Development of Agriculture in the Postwar
Five Year Plan), Gosplanizdat, Moscow, 1946, p. 122. U.
Sotsialisticheskoye zemledeliye, Moscow, 17 Apr 1951. U.
20. Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
Sautin, op. cit., p. 108.
21. US Department of Agriculture, Livestock on Farms January 1,
Released 14 Feb 1952. U.
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25X1A2g 22. US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics,
1951, p. 38. U.
23.
24. Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, Information from FDD files of Pravda
and Kazakhstanskaya Pravda.. C.
25. Main Administration for Statistics of the Republic of Poland,
21. cit.
Directorate of Agricultural Economics, Rumanian Ministry of
Agriculture for Provinces, off. cit.
International Institute of Agriculture, c)p. cit.
Sautin, op. cit., pp. 4-107-
State Statistical Office, Germany, oa. cit.
Volin, op. cit.
USARMA, op. cit.
Bol'shaya Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, op. cit.
Demidov, oa. cit.
Sotsialisticheskoye zemledeliye, op. cit..
Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
26. CIA OR., D/M interrogation of a foreign national.
Jasny, op. cit., pp. 378-379.
27. My'asnaya industriya SSSR (Meat Industry of the USSR), Main
Administration for Meat, People's Commissariat of Food
Industry, Moscow, Sep 1936. U.
28. CIA IR 7019107. S-
29. CIA IR 70+1O57. S-
30. Nfyasnaaya industriya SSSR, 1936, various issues, especially
Sep 1936. U.
31. CIA IR, Median of Plant Files. S.
32. CIA ORR, D/M consultation with US Department of Agriculture,
Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, Washington, D.C.
R.
CIA ORR estimate.
33? Ibid.
34. CIA IR 7019107. S.
35. CIA IR 70'+1057. S.
36. US Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics,
The Livestock and Meat Situation, Washington, D.C., May-Jun
1952. U.
37. CIA ORR estimate.
38. Frank Lorimer, The Population of the Soviet Union: History
and Prospects, Geneva, 1946. U.
39. CIA ORR estimate.
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40. Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
41. Myasnaya industriya SSSR, No. 1, 1949. U.
Myasnaya industriya SSSR, No. 1, 1952. U.
42. T.H. Shen, Agricultural Resources of China, Ithaca., 1951,,
p. 243. U-
43. Myasnaya industriya SSSR, No. 1, 1949. U.
Myasnaya industriya SSSR, No. 1, 1952. U.
44. Sautin, op. cit., pp. 1-5.
45. Ibid.
Jasny, op. cit., p. 797, partly based on V.S. Nemchinov,
Sel'skokhozstvennaya statistika s osnovami obshchey teorii
Agricultural Statistics with the Principles of General
Theory), Moscow, 1945, p. 130. U.
Michael, op. cit.
46. Main Administration for Statistics of the Republic of Poland,
OP. cit.
Directorate of Agricultural Economics, Rumanian Ministry
of Agriculture for Provinces, op. cit.
International Institute of Agriculture, op. cit.
Sautin, op. cit., pp. 4-107
State Statistical Office, Germany, op. cit.
Volin, oa. cit.
USARMA, op. cit.
Bol'shaya Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, op. cit.
Demidov, op. cit.
Sotsialisticheskoye zemledeliye, op. cit.
Pravda, Moscow, 20 Aug 1952. U.
47. Ibid.
48. V.A. Chuvikov, Spravochnik redsedatel a kolkhozov (Handbook
for Chairman of Collective Farms), Moscow, 19W, p. 437. U.
49. V.P. Nifontov, Zhivotnovodstvo SSSR v tsifrakh (Animal Hus-
bandry of the USSR in Figures)., Gossotsekizdat, Moscow and
Leningrad, 1932, pp. 128-143. U-
50. Ibid.
:51. Ibid.
52. Ibid.
53. Ibid.
54. Ibid.
55. Ibid.
56. Ibid.
57. Ibid., p. 155.
V.P. Nifontov, Proizvodstvo zhivotnovodstvo v SSSR, Moscow,
1937, pp. 101-103. U.
Sotsialisticheskoye sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR (Socialist
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Agriculture of the USSR), Moscow and Leningrad, 1939,
p. 73. U.
USSR State Planning Commission, op. cit.
58. US Department of Agriculture, Office of Foreign Agricultural
Relations, Washington, D.C. R.
CIA ORR preliminary estimates.
59. US Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agriculture Economics,
The Livestock and Meat Situation, Washington, D.C., May-
Jun 1952. U.
Lorimer, op. cit.
CIA ORR estimate.
76
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