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Approved For Release 19992191as2piakRDP79-01093A000500020002-0 UPIIIlTIAL PROVISIONAL xfiriaLwartrE REPORT THE 1953 SOVIET STATE BUDGET CIAIER PR-51 (MR Project 14.126) 12 Earth 1954 ENTNO. NO CI N CLASS. El DECLASS!.. NEXT REVIEW DATE: L1F47r CLP:3S. CHANG.i_-1D T AUTH? IR 70-21,4 DAT /07 VEVIEWER: 372044 o 8 s NOTICE The data and conclusions in this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORB and should be regarded as provisonal only and subject to revision. Comments and additional data which may be available to the user are solicited, WARNING THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAW, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGELtY Office of Research and Reports Approved For Release 1999/09/ Egg! 00050002 Approved For Release 1999/09/0 ? -01093A000500020002-0 Ekr;i'DENTIAL FOREWORD This analysis of the 1953 Soviet state budget is issued at this time as backgronmi for use in connection with the 1954 Soviet state budget, which probably will be announced, as usual, in the early spring, -T Approved For Release 199 09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/0W,Vd_916ARDP79-01093A000500020002-0 columns Page Summary and Conclusions . ? . , . . . . . . . . . , 1 I. Introduction . . . ............,.. 2 al. Sources of Revenue 004?40?004144444444aL 4 A, Turnover Taxes . . .. 9?a?404444049. 4 B. Deductions from Profits . .?....?........ 4 :C. Direct Taxes . .; . . .....?..... 7 D. State Loans 4.1400400944 7 E. Secondary Sources 044/44?VO? ? 40 0 0 644 L 4 8 III, Expenditures fia? 444?0?04444404004004 9 A. Financing the National Economy . a . a a 0 i t 0 a a a a 9 1, industry and Agriculture - , . a a . . ? ? . 0 L 4 9 2, Transport and Communicational Trade and Procurement, and Municipal Economy . . 4 0 a , 9 0 0 0 4 13 3. Investment . . . . ... . 4 a a 0 0 4 4 4 a a a a 13 B. Social-Cultural Activities ? ? C. State' Administration .a. D. Defense a a a a p a a p 0 P . E. Residual Expenditures . . ? 4 4 4 ? 4 4 4 a a 15 0 .9 40004 ,04 15 "olg O44,404?400t COW, 44060044 16 Sources oaOaa a . ?a*NaO*40a.0t a 0 P. 4 0 , 0 a 17 Tables Table 1. Budgetary Revenues of the USSR 1949-53 . a P Table 2. Profits of the National Economy of the USSR, 1949-53 40440004440004 404 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/091024; CAIDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Table 3. Direct Taxes in the USSR, 1949-53 . ne pea _age 8 Table 4. Table 5. Budgetary, Expenditures of the USSR, 1949-53 . . capital Formation in the Econany of the USSR, 10 1949-53 a coo ?Po? ,?900a0C? 0 9000 14 'Ttble 6.; Defense Appropriations in the Budget of the USSR, 191O_53 ? ?See 7?4 0 000..0 la 444 0 16 -vi -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 CIA/RR PR-51 (ORR Project 14.126) Al 1953 SOVIET STATE BUDGET* Sunmyinp.nd Conclueions - Although the 1953 Soviet state budget, like its predecessorss stressed maintenance of a high level of military preparedness and investment for increasing production capacity) it introduced a number of striking innova- tions. Among these the most noteworthy were the following: (1) inclusion of the "cost" of the 1953 price reductions in the state budget; (2) a new emphasis upon increaaing agricultural production by means of raising pro- curement prices) greater investment in Machine Tractor Stations, and re- duction of the agricultural income tax; and (3) an increase in consulter purchasing power through reducing the average turnover tax rate and state loan subscrlptions by the population, Explicit planned allocations for defense in 1953 were slightly below the 1952 planned level, although they exceeded actual 1952 expendituree iesti- mated) in this category by about 1.5 percent. The small change in 1953 defense appropriations represented a sharp leveling off from the rate of growth of the defense sector in 1951-52. In view of recent price reduc- tions, however, the purchasing power of the 1953 defense allocations was greater than that of corresponding ruble sume in 1952. Total planned investment in fixed assets in the Soviet economy continued to increase in 1953 at approximately the rate prevailing in 1952, Following the announcement of the 1953 Soviet state budget, the 3oviet government released figures on investment in the consumer sector of the economy which suggested that thP decision to increase the output ard sa1n of consumer goods was not deeigned to affect greatly the traditional Soviet rate of aggregate investment or growth of heavy induatry, Additional re- sources for the coneumer goods sector were to come primarily from increments to the national product, with explieit appropriation to deer ee being some- what aboye the 1952 level, - estimate and conclusione contained in this report repr .ent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 16 rebruary 1954. -E-1; 4I-E-T ???? Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 1. Introduction, The Soviet state budget for 1953 was presented by Finance flinister Arseniy Zverev at the Fifth Session of the Supreme Soviet on 5 August 1953. The annual budget message and the "debates" which follow have become in recent years virtually the only source of aggregative information on the performance- and plans of the Soviet economy, especially in its finaacial aspects. Zverev's 1953 message was less generous in dispensing. factual information than his 1952 message but the published 1953 budget contained more specific figures than the 1952 budget, and Premier Ueorgiy Malenkov's speech on 9 August 1953 added a number of hints regarding the present position of the Soviet economy and the plans for future development. The Soviet budgets, which is presentee in consolidated form for all level's If government, finances the activity of all noneconomic organs such as administratten eefense? police, educations and health)a transfer pezrznt-Lt?. to individuals (such as pensions and maternity aid), and the bulk of caples formation in the Soviet economy, Its main source of revenue is the margin between the cost of production and distribution of consumer goods and their retail value. Part of thia margin, however, is not indluded in the stete budget but remains with the economic enterprises and is uced by them to supplement budget sources of capital investment and for expansion of working capital. As a rule, economic enterprises are independent accounting entities, and their activities appear in the budget on a net beets, appearina as their net losses, a tax on their net profits, and new investment needs, The Machine Tractor Stations (NTS's.1 are an exception to this rule and it the budget on a groas basis. 1/* . The most striking point in the 1953 budget Is theinclusion for the fir time of expenditure and revenue entries concerning retail price reductions, These items raise both sides of the budget by about 43 billion rUbles and render comparison with previous total budgets difficult. Zverev and Nalenko7 both stated that the retail price rednrtions were reflected in thl- 1953 hudget. The fact that they- bad not been included in the budgets of previous years but had represented a loss to the state is evident from a comparieon of stateMents by Zverev in 1951 and 1953 concerning the relation of the price reductions to the state budget, n rootnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed in the Appendix. - G-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Th 1951,Zverev said, "'..-11a reduction of State retail prices for mass con- sumer goods, on an annual plan, will reprecent 27.5 billion rdbles. This suz epratTt a pure loss for the atate budget and, at the same time, ie pure profit for the population." 2/ In 1953?, Zverev said, "The USSR State Budget for 1953 allocates napravIl et, the same word used for other allocationg- 43.2 illion rubles for lowering as from 1 April, the state retail prices for foodstuffs and industrial goods, which repro seats for the population an estimated annual gain of over 46.0 billion ruhles." -fln other words, only the: loss in turnover tax receipts was entered as an item in ths 1951 budget, whereas it would seem that in 1953, bides a loss in rIanned turnover tax receirts due to price reduction, there ware two budget entriee, one credit and one debit, which accounted for the price reduction and raised by this amount both sides of the budget. Disregarding the inclusion of price reduction costs,* the 1953 budget an compared with that of 1952 was much like the 1950 budget as-, compared with that of 1949, In the light of these similarities, it seemr that acme attempt to stabilize the economy and benefit the consumer was begun by the Otalin regime in 1950y interrupted for 2 years by the Korean War and the fear of general war, and resumed again? but more extensively, in 1953 after Stalin's death.** Total comparable planned revenues in 1950 and 1953 were lightly lest; than those in 1949 and 1952, respectively, and total com- parnble planned expenditures were only slightly higher. The slump in the planned revenue in 1950 is attributable to large retail and wholesale price reductions and to the abolition of the turnover tax on some basic commodities in connection with the program for abolishing subsidiet in industry and transport. 5/ In 1953, likewise, retail and wholesale price reductions were large, although not so large as those of 1950; the statn loan was less than it had been in 1952 by about 14 billion rubles; and tha planned agricultural tnx receipts decreased by 4 billion rubles because of a change in the tax, To do this, 43.2 billion rubles must be eubtracted from total expeuditnres and a balancing item of., say, 43.2 billion rubles must be auttracned from total revenuers. * Savings to the nonsumer resulting from current price reductions amonnted to 80 billion ruble in 1950 as against 23 billion rubles in 1951 and f--7.5 billion rubles in 195P- 4/ - 3 - S-E -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 -R-E , Sourcee of Revenue, - Total revenue in the 1953 Soviet budget wae planned at 544.3 billion rubles, as compared with 5o9,9 billion rubles planned in 1952. This reveoue however, includes 43.2 billion ruble hich represent 'revenue allocated to, the lowering of state retail prices carried out beginniag 1 April. 1953, ,y This is simply a bookkeeping entry and total revenue is thug only 501.1 billion nibbles, which is only slightly above the realized 497.7 billion rubles in 1952. A breakdown of budgetary revenues for the years 109-53 ia given in Table 1.* Probably the main reason for inclusion of the price re-. duetions in the budget VVA to present a much. larger apparent incresee in revenue. 2or purposes of analysis, ali sources of revenue nre divided into two groups -- primary and secondary eources. Ihe primary eonrcee include turnover taxes, deductions from profits, direct taxes "taxes on the popu- lation"), and state leans. Secondary sources include the income of NTS's, eocial insurance funds custome and reparations, revenues not claseed ms taxes, the income tax on cooperative enterprises, and local taxes. A, Turnover Taxes. Turnover taxes, 'which are excise taxes levied almoet exclusively on consumer goodse** were scheduled to yield 241 billion rUbles in. 1953, or 19.7 billion rubles lese than planned for 1952. In the absence of statistics as to the change in the cost components of retail prices, it has been aeeumed that the 1,953 reduction in retail prices were accounted for by decreaeee it! turnover tat rates The relation between planned turnover tax receepte ia 1952 and 1953 id somewhat like that in 1949 and 195a. B. Deductions from Profits. In the 1953 Soviet budget the state was to receive 80.6 billion rublee in transfers from profits of state enterprises, as against 58.4 billion rublle actually received on this account in 19520 an increase of 22.2 billion rubles. IL The sharp increase in this category is primarily a reflection of the projected increase in economic activity.but may also indicate -wider planaed margins of profit.- The profits of the national economy of the USSR are shown in Table . Table 1 follows on p. 5. ** The only exceptions are petroleum product,, which a/so are eubject to the turnover tax. *** Table 2 follows on p. 7, - 4 - S-E-C, $-E- Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Rele a se 999/?N LC\ Lf? rt1C0 ;(3, CV CO CIA041gbI6-0143A000500020002-0 0 +3 I 0 ri 3r41.0 0 0 c0 CO C?,3 0 Q, 90 tA1cn r11 rl 0 0 0 1,7%, ON CO t*-- 0 O. 9 -*, f..4.3. C3i 1 01 rrl o or) 0 ON L'N r-i VD CU J CY) en 31 .6.1' 01. 4. cri {3.1 C4 4,1,1 re't 44 ix% ONCO 0 Lc% 0; Approved For Relea e 1999/09/02 0 0 P 0 ON 0 \O M.?, on fe) U1 CO 140 0 0 1 0 1 CO CO sr; 0\ ,40 cii cx. 1 = 44 ct 4aso v40 Cu .--1 ae, se E 2 .._. 0 . 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P., a) C.) to -c.., cw "- 1-1 - aCE p ?, Cl., II) 0 f?11.1 O '0 11 k ti) a) 0 0 ?, U) al d H i6ill ?/".' 0 ,r.; Cu t+a it V ti-+ 0 H-) 4-) k 0 if) ),I -1-4 N E.1 4) 4,0 S4 0 O TO El 0 ipul 41 0 4) 4.) 0 re ?,) 0 E.*t fl 0) H cl 0 w. 0 e t99/04140: pp, , FC19-01 9M060g0000 m, (? _ e34 0 P? f P4 0 1-4 cri a) *-4 $.4 0 r-4 tO cYU) " H 4-> 40 0 !A &It 0 r-1 41.1 O0) 0 ?,9 \-0 ) tZt r..41 at Ci 4261 CO P. 4) rtr) : ->) rid 4 *.r\ A' H *5.0 ? H O 1:1I P4 H co 03 w Cle $.4 0 0 +) c.) O g A .o ?43 ? +) ,f5 4-? tO O 4.) 04 UN k fl) F..;? 4010 44 +) CD 0 b.0 ..0 0 ,c1 0 $r0 0) v g 6 o ? C) 0 ? NA 4-) W O 4)4) 0 0.) gcl PA 2 r,:zi r.10 - * 1.4 r0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02: CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 kab1e frofits of the 1%tionoll_ liconomy of the ',km y 1A9-5,3 tllth Lurrant a Profits Paid into audget i..-8,;L; 4c)4 56)4, 80.6 CAhlance 14.eta1nf..,J 4,4 30 3 L19,1 30.9 i 1 , f ' = : 1910 L950 1951 1952. i953 Plan 69.6 70.7 88,1 1ue5 ... ...ev +Aw.- ...-.04. ???? *.O. .+-,..-.... 4r...4 ...? ...?, ?.., ....,....,, , ? ..... a, The figur I es n Chis table arc taken from budget report:; of th- c;p-,-:,cified years, ; Direct Taxes: 6oviet plantind revenur? in 1953 from direct taxen ol pbptIt lation"), consisting chiefly. of the' nonagricultural income tt a tht, cultural tax. WM; giv,E7n by Zverc:nr at 46-1 billion rubles, 1,3 billion. rubIt-; than planned in 195 k. hown in ;9.1)1.e; 3,h thi4 relatioa planned revenuks in and 1953 is onc,?. again similar tn tho bk-Attlen planned. revenuer, in 1949 and. 1950, rlanned 7"ekAI:J;P.T;!''ti, Cle, -Jere underfulfilield in 1949 by 29 billion rubles; 1950 planned 7)-eipt from direct taxas verf: less thau 1949 planned receipts fro ts.E Vy 0,2 billion rubla; In 199, planned receipts fro . direct taxos dereased over 1952 planmd receipts by 1.73 billion rubles; Actual. recelp. for 1.95 were not discIoA. 1,t both 1.95 and 195, receipts from direct , ! taxes roe over the previous year, and the differenzc bc,tven acual and 1;14 in 1951 reduction in the. agricultural ta* r;;;?es paanty- for 1953 was cw of thy:. incentivez, offered by the go`varratvnt to ,;1A, to increase tha prodmtion on private plot and probably bocauas of underfulfht of the 1952 plan, - 7 D, Loann, _ _ iivenue from stsl,e loans in the 1953 budgot wne rcducc-d markethy la: comparison with reductiou In state loans t3hou1.b have - i?on-Aultx purchasing power, which planned to bu absor:f-d by a'rl incre of con.,amer goods on the market, aorrowing from the population E. pd t iable follows on p, Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 - 3 '4-axen in the 0Sak, a/ 4.953 Currv.nt. * ar klann.d Acttua-7. - ,944.9 366 33,7 ' 1950 36,4 195i 43,4 1.952 47.4 192 L. The figura7s in this tabL Wi.7c, froi budget reports of the r2.17.(77ilified yearn ; 16,7 Wilton rubies, 8/ Additional public borrowing from nubl:!.r. bank as-planned at am amount of about 117 billion .Yotal public borro4ing planqed for 1953 ia thus estimated at ?13,14 billlo rubles as against 42.5 billion rubies planned for 19!)2, E, Secondary Sourcee, AfT,er subtracting 326,1 billion rubeli., of primary sourco; of rovenues from total plf,,,nned revgaw for 1953, there rer.i.n 146 2 bii:nol rubies coming from otherour:2es ia the 1953 budget. WitLin thic 1.3,2 billion rUbIes represent tht- retail pricp reduvtions, and 10'5 billion: ruble6 comprise various uecondary sourec', By ,,ri.suming then tqa-e secondav:ii ourcet would at least bav mAintsined the 1952 pan.d leve.1 of .:,ccom, 97 b111ion rub) a$ are accounted for, 1.,LNw1n3 only 7.7 biLIior rb1T c ped out of the 105 billion rUblee total- itiOnaiublic borrowing in, 1953 is ,:lstimated on thk? basis of thcs bud4T., .ipe(,-ch! by 1, Khokblov,, rhairmen. of the Budget Commi5ion, eouni."4 of Mtion.1 allties, Xhokhlov stated that 1953 receipts from dirqt taxta decrease by 15.3 billion rubles in relation to th preceding yar zicd constitute 14,1 percent of total plmlned revenue as compered it: 185 pemtt of actual revenue in 195. This sac that th., 1953 reverrus fro .sour.les was planned at 76,7 billion. rubles (14.1 percent of 544.3 billion - rub14?s, planned 1953; or 18.5 percent of 497.7 billion rubles actual 1952 15,3 billion rUblenV Ihe difference between KhokTlIovbq figura thf,t of Maltnkov (65 billion ru.b31, ie 1.17 billion rub 74/ rcprenrl borrowing from Flavings barkD and publIc organizations not innud-d 1i_ Naljyrnkov't, figure, 2/ 41-E 4 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 EApeldituro6 6chii?.du1td budgotary allocar,10n3 .11 i93appeamd to inCrFEVA" tact 5?L!: 4vbut if the 43.. billion rUbkies fuloc:at ce ed to pri rcdu ol r7ti hr. dedu4.: ? increaae ? much WM mo&t tamountcd to 5,9 perctmA, ovvr and parce211. owr the .1.95F- ..* p hv OV le budget elm init-Yo.yr% for firiateSAlf thc.,. tot ;.-Ion.t alturul activicika, otate administratiou and n br.,..kdoan of planned and af7.tual expeddiTurv yrt planned expeo._nditurc for 1953, t ri c? tual revenue :xwnditure in avolomy, Foc!ia1 .eb1,0 4* give-s 949-52 and of P4- Financing the i!:I.tional EConau AT4 largert item on the expendituma side a the budA f411,3f0 the eotional economy, which ln, 1953 was scheduled at I925 bliliOl rubl(A, or! 36.3 percent of total budgetary expenditures.** The 1952 budget allocated 180.4 billion rUbles for tht an parpoaG, but actual expwlditarl emountcA f,o 1789 billion rublez.., or 38.9 peroat of total acAua1 zxk7:nditur, planed 1ncr?,a64, in 1953 nt thun 7,1 Dement over 195,?: actuai Tha4 budgc,t%ry 6.o13rcea of financing t1r.! uationaI ocoacmy aut:parsd ! budg:7ttary nourttea, retaiw...d current profit E of cuArpriciekl, prexiatioe atiowarceE., and thy fund of colLIv?tive fftirm ! itcordIng to Nalenkov' ItTel,.,:ch on 9 Auguot 1953, these rzlon.budgetary gourets of financing th,.." eo.onomy in arcaunt0 for 98 rtbe,: 10/ I, andulAry and Apricuiture. iiyrwo compon,..nte wrmentiolovd by Zverev under thr-7 catpgory Vinancilg and kiationta Thconomy, atated thnt andustry vouId rcalve 8,6 billion rublza, as compared with 80,6 billion rdbles vproprivt,cd aud that the' allocatiott. to agriellature and agr1culture proeurem,.!& anount to 399 biAion rilbit:L8 FigainE?t 34,7 rub to f),griculture alone in 1.952. Ybe bndeg-t 1aw stcted thr2t th i9 tuvlyt mada provi&ion for additional stat expenditures on agriculture ar.4, redu4lti3 tvenu*: from the agricultural-tax lv.ied Ltiv farnerr amount of 13,6 billion rubles. 11/ An amalyai of thre- fumttonal elloce ion of th:Gc-: 13 rublt;:a. show& that only 8,9 billion ruble f.Aln b aseifted pnditurE.'., bringing th total budgetary appropricialou to proeurtment up to 48.8 billion ruble4, ale budget law given t1-* breakdown of 13,0 billion rubies. out of 13,6 billion ruble8 (a') of highr procumment pri.?.11:8 on IlvestOck products and veg6tablen rubles, (t) operational axpeues and new equipment for WtVa 2 Tublez;, and (6 reduction of !.t.griultural tax levied on coaectiv pLiots (4,1 billion rubIe), it is evident. thatitems? expenditure item and that item L!.) i6 a reduction in rewnue itr followsoi p., 10, l'..clentages of total 1953 c:cp2nd1thres given below refer to the arinouriesci total, including 43,2 billion rubles related to 1953 price reductionf, . - 9 ; -E -C -R-E -T _ Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500020002-0 f Approved RI -;$ 0 N. le 43 '?k)1 e 1999109/02 rCIA- \ID ce) Tr) si . , r.,--It(A,cia )1') 1 0 0 0, 0 Ll' 0i 0 "a N r---I OA r N (1, .,-.4 , a-, , i ,..-4 e i L\?) a ,N.D (Al 1:11\ 0 0 i-Ci t Cr, ' ?.1 -11 co ; P79-0-1093A000500020002-0 f C4ri Cu 1 1 C..Cu ? tri Cu Cu : I CI\ 0,) rr:21 c0 t.-- ;--6 C rt?, ZPN r-1 CY\ 9 u ,, , , c., Cu 1'I44 e-4 U.