WESTERN EUROPEAN SHIPBUILDING FOR THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE BLOC ECONOMY

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CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1
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S
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45
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November 9, 2016
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October 7, 1998
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1
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June 9, 1954
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IR
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eleasA 19,9 ~ 11P79-01093A00050011000?-1 CIA/RR PR-60 9 June 1954 OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS Approved For Release 1999/09/02: CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 FOR THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE BLOC ECONOMY NLY Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 WESTERN EUROPEAN SHIPBUILDING FOR THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE BLOC ECONOMY CIA /RR PR - 6o (ORR Project 35.244) NOTICE The data and conclusions in this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Comments and additional data which may be available to the-user are solicited. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports US OFFICIALS ONLY Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093AO005001 10001 -1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 This report examines the general economic effects on the Soviet Bloc, and, in particular, the economic relief afforded the Bloc shipbuilding industry, by Western European shipbuilding and ship repair for the Bloc. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Page Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 II. Shipbuilding in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc. . . 2 1. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2. Gross Registered Tonnage Constructed. . . . . . . . 3 3. Relative Importance of Western European Production to the Soviet Bloc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 4. Labor Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 5. Steel Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 6. Main Propulsion Machinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 III. Ship Repairs in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc. . . 14 1. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2. Labor Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 IV. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Appendixes Appendix A. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Appendix B. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Appendix C. Sources and Evaluation of Sources. . . . . . . . 31 1. Published Numbers and GRT of Vessels under Construction for the Soviet Bloc in Non-Bloc Countries. . . . . . . . 4 2. New Vessel Tonnage Delivered to the Soviet Bloc from Western European Shipyards. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T 3. Vessels Built and Delivered to the West and to the Soviet Bloc from Western European Shipyards, 1953 . . . . . . 4. Vessels Acquired, Built, or Under Construction in the Soviet Bloc, 1953-55 . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. Types of Soviet Bloc Vessels Constructed in Western European Shipyards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. Tonnage of Ocean-Going Dry Cargo Vessels Constructed in the Soviet Bloc, 1952-53. . . . . . ... . . . . . 9 7. Tonnage of Fishing Vessels Constructed in the Soviet Bloc, 1952-53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 8. Shipyard Labor Used in the Construction of Soviet Bloc Vessels in.Western European Shipyards. . . . . . . 11 9. Total Shipyard Labor in the Soviet Bloc Engaged in New Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 10. Estimated Man-years Required to Build Soviet Naval Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 11. Invoiced Hull Steel Used in the Construction of Soviet Bloc Vessels in Western European Shipyards . . . . . . . 13 12. Main Propulsion Machinery Used in Soviet Bloc Vessels Built in Western European Shipyards. . . . . . . . . . . 15 13. Marine Engine Building in the Soviet Bloc, 1953 . . . 16 14. Statistics on the Ship Repair Industry of Belgium . . . . 18 15. Ship Repairs for the Soviet Bloc in Belgium . . . . . . . 19 16. Shipyard Labor Expended on Repairs of Soviet Bloc Vessels in Western European Shipyards. . . . . . . . . . . 19 17. Breakdown of Western European Shipbuilding Costs. . . . . 22 S-E-C -R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T 18. Average Wage in the Shipbuilding Industry in Western Europe, 1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 19. Soviet Bloc Ship Repair Costs in Italy. . . . . . . . . 25 20. Comparison of Net Steel in the Hull as a Percent of Light Ship Displacement, Deadweight Tonnage, or GRT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For. Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000.500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 C IA/RR PR -60 T ^ -R F -m (ORR Project 35.244) WESTERN EUROPEAN SHIPBUILDING FOR THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE BLOC ECONOMY* Summary The building of Soviet Bloc vessels in Western European ship- yards is increasing from an average of 150,000 gross registered tons (GRT) of vessels delivered annually during 1950-53 to an estimated 208,000 GRT to be delivered in 1955. This tonnage amounts to about 20 percent of the total new tonnage of merchant ships acquired annually by the Bloc and is augmenting, particularly, the Bloc mari- time and fishing fleets. The construction of Soviet Bloc vessels in Western Europe during 1950-55, as measured in man-years, amounts to from 4 to 7 percent of the new construction labor force engaged in Soviet Bloc merchant and naval vessel production in 1952-53. The relief thereby afforded Bloc shipyards gave the Bloc the opportunity to construct an additional 10 to 50 minor combatant naval vessels (destroyers, submarines, and minesweepers) annually. The main propulsion machinery obtained from non-Soviet Bloc sources and installed in Bloc vessels built in Western Europe did not augment Bloc production to any great extent. Hull steel inputs in these vessels were insignificant compared to total Bloc steel production. Labor expended on repairs on Soviet Bloc vessels in Western Europe amounted, in 1952, to about 4 percent of the USSR shipyard manpower engaged in repairs to vessels. This adds materially to the relief furnished Bloc shipyards by Western European shipbuilding for the Bloc. * The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 1 May 1954. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 The continuing efforts of the Soviet Bloc to procure additional new vessels from Western European shipyards has received considerable publicity recently. In the last year the USSR has signed new trade agreements or placed orders in seven Western European countries other than Finland for ship construction amounting to over 130,000 gross registered tons (GRT)* of vessels to be delivered in 1954- to 1956. 1/** In Finland practically the entire output of the ship- building industry amounting to over 100,000 GRT per year is taken by the BlOc...xxx 2/ Thus the Bloc will obtain sizable adca.Ltions to its maritime and fishing fleets in the next 3 years withou,. inter- rupting the naval shipbuilding programs in which most of the larger Bloc shipyards are now engaged. II. Shipbuilding in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc. To evaluate the importance of Western European shipbuilding for the Soviet Bloc both the over-all amount of construction usually reported in GRT and the principal inputs in this building, shipyard labor, hull steel, and main propulsion machinery must be examined. Also, since the construction of a ship may extend over as long a time as 3 years, it is necessary to examine this building over a, period of years. The period 1950-55 has been selected for this report, since it includes not only the most recent Soviet Bloc ship- building orders but also an earlier wave of construction starting about 1950. The years 1953-55 have been used, however, when earlier years are not necessary to show the trend. * Gross registered tonnage is the total volume within the enclosed portion of the ship including deck houses (with certain minor exceptions), expressed in units of 100 cubic feet to a ton. ** Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed in Appendix C. *** All production has gone to the USSR except for one vessel con- tracted during 1954 for delivery to the Chinese Communists. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T 2. Gross Registered Tonnage Constructed. The amount of tonnage under construction in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc, as published in Lloyd's Register, increased rapidly in 1950. (See Table l.)* In September 1949, only 13 vessels totaling less than 10,000 GRT were reported as under construction, but by September 1950 the number of vessels under construction had increased to 49 vessels totaling 67,000 GRT. With some fluctuations this higher level of building has been continued through 1953, reaching a maximum of 55 vessels totaling 81,000 tons in 1951. These published figures have been found to be far from complete, particu- larly with respect to shipbuilding for the Bloc, because non-self- propelled tonnage was excluded and apparently incomplete reports were received from some countries. A more complete estimate of tonnage figures for each country has been compiled from classified sources and listed in Table 2.** Table 2 indicates that all Western European countries with ship- building industries (except Norway, Portugal, and Spain) are engaged in building for the Bloc. The tonnage delivered each year has amounted to over 125,000 GRT and in 1952 reached a peak of 175,000 GRT. With the recent trade agreements and orders, the tonnage delivered will exceed 200,000 GRT in 1955. 3.. Relative Importance of Western European Production to the Soviet Bloc. Shipbuilding for the Soviet Bloc amounted to less than 4 per- cent of the 1953 Western European shipbuilding total of over 3.5 million GRT. (See Table 3.)*** Shipbuilding for the Bloc was of national economics significance only in Finland`, where the USSR takes practically all of the ship production, and in Belgium and Denmark, where building for the Bloc amounted to 8 percent and 12 percent, respectively, of total production in 1953. The estimated total tonnage of newly constructed merchant vessels built and acquired by the Soviet Bloc amounted to over 750,000 GRT in 1953 and by 1955 will reach a total of over 1 million GRT, (Table 4).**** The shipbuilding for the Bloc in Western Europe accounts for a sizable proportion of this tonnage, averaging nearly * Table 1 follows ** Table 2 follows *** Table 3 follows **** Table 4 follows on p. 4. on p. 5. on p. 6 on p. 7. S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 UK Other British and Commonwealth Northern Ireland Countries Belgium Denmark Finland Italy Netherlands Sweden Us Total Year Quarter Number GRT Number CRT Number WT Number (RT Number ORT umber GRT Number GRT Number GNT Number GBT Number GRT 1946 1 2 2 292 2 3 3 600 R a/ 3 4 1947 1 3 600 R 3 600 2 4 2,800 C J 3 600 R 7 3,400 3 9 11,100 C 9 11,100 4 9 11,100 C 6 2,782 1 800 P J 16 14,682 1948 1 3 2,860 P 9 11,100 C 6 2,782 18 16,742 2 3 2,860 P 9 12,690 C 10 7,688 2 200 P 24 23,438 3 3 2,860 P 5 8,830 C 9 7,620 2 200 P 19 19,510 4 1 1,160 P 1 3,079 C 10 7,925 4 400 P 16 12,564 1949 1 1 1,160 P 1 3,079 C 10 6,323 2 200 P 14 10,762 2 10 7,745 1 600 11 8,345 3 1 Boo C 2 3,000 7 5,122 2 200 P 1 600 13 9,722 4 1 3,200 P 3 5,010 1 3,075 P 8 5,903 2 200 P 3 600 P 22 21,288 1 Boo C 3 3,100 1950 1 2 10,800 P 7 11,150 1 4,120 P 14 12,279 2 320 P 3 800 P 35 x+4,319 1 800 C 5 4,050 2 3 18,400 P 8 14,050 1 3,165 P 14 :0,202 160 P 2 600 P 36 52,027 7 5,450 3 3 18,400 P 7 12,380 1 3,165 P 13 9,939 2 6,900 2 2,000 4 8oo P 49 66,684 17 13,100 4 3 18,400 P 9 16,180 1 3,165 P 12 9,634 2 6,900 2 2,000 4 980 P 55 74,209 22 16,950 1951 1 2 15,200 P 8 14,510 15 14,740 2 6,900 3 3,000 3 400 P 56 71,900 23 17,150 2 6 10,940 2 10,360 11 10,858 2 6,900 4 4,000 3 510 P 55 64,088 27 20,520 3 5 9,040 2 10,360 11 11.179 2 7,350 7 22,000 1 190 P 27 20,920 55 81,039 4 3 5,470 3 11,880 9 7,545 1 3,450 7 22,000 1 190 P 42 64,701 18 14,166 1952 1 2 3,800 4 13,400 13 12,040 7 22,000 15 12,018 41 63,258 2 4 6,712 11 9,840 7 22,000 9 8,150 31 46,702 3 5 15,550 18 22,561 7 22,220 6 5,400 36 65,731 4 4 13,875 20 24,857 5 20,110 4 3,765 33 62,607 1953 1 1 3,100 3 12,197 24 27,815 7 24,910 3 3,015 38 71,037 2 1 1,711 2 10,360 25 26,302 9 28,310 1 950 38 67,633 3 3 5,122 1 8,840 27 31,609 10 30,010 1 925 42 76,506 4 4 6,823 25 36,946 11 31,065 1 925 41 75,759 a. Letters following the tonnage figures indicate the Bloc countries that have received the ve se1s. All tonnage not followed by C, P. or R was constructed for the USSR. C - China, P - Poland, and R - Rumania. - 4 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T New Vessel Tonnage Delivered to the Soviet Bloc from Western European Shipyards J Location of Shipyard 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Belgium 4,467 9,600 4,911 4,572 16,589 31,399 Denmark o 3,181 14,427 14,787 5,040 3,360 Finland 120,000 '(Estimated) 110,218 127,820 124,o86 114,892 93,292 France o 0 0 0 0 13,750 West-Germany 0 0 0 0 0 30,000 UK 3,219 0 0 0 2,450 7,350 Italy 2,440 4,362 4,394 0 470 17,16o Netherlands o 0 3,165 6,015 15,035 3,320 Sweden 3,193 16,003 21,186 5,086 5,450 7,900 133,.319 143,364 175,903 154,546 159,926 207,531 -5- Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S E C R E T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S E-C-R-E-T Vessels Built and Delivered to the West and to the Soviet Bloc from Western European Shipyards 1953 Country Total GRT Delivered to the West and1oathe Bloc in 1953 5 _ _// GRT Delivered to the Bloc in 1953 Percent of Bloc Deliveries to Total Deliveries Belgium 54,734 4,572 8 Denmark 126,813 14,787 12 Finland 128,586 124,086 96.5 France 235,121 0 0 West Germany 711,874 0 0 UK 1,250,263 0 0 Italy 164,513 0 0 Netherlands 305,648 6,015 2 Norway 107,737 0 0 Portugal 8,061 0 0 Spain 44,124 0 0 Sweden 468,776 5,086 1 Total . 3,606,250 154,546 4 a. All figures are based on Lloyd's Register and refer to self- propelled vessels over 100 GRT except for Finland. Finnish figures include both self-propelled and non-self-propelled vessels and are not based on Lloyd's. 20 percent of the total acquired by the Bloc in 1953 through 1955. The Bloc acquired only a negligible number of vessels from non-Bloc countries other than those in Western Europe. A breakdown by types of vessels built in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc is shown in Table 5* for the years 1953, 1954, and- 1955. * Table 5 follows on p. 8. S-E-C -R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 4 Vessels Acquired, Built, or Under Construction in the Soviet Bloc 6/ 1953 1954 1955 USSR 407,500 48o,ooo 512,000 Czechoslovakia 25,500 27,700 29,900 East Germany 120,000 131,000 134,000 Hungary 26,100 26,800 26,800 Poland 37,300 50,700 58,200 Albania N.A. N.A. 1,000 Bulgaria N.A. N.A. 7,200 Rumania N.A. 40,000 48,000 Total Soviet Bloc Production 616,400 756,200 817,100 Western European Production Delivered to Soviet Bloc 154,500 159,900 207,500 Total Bloc Acquisition 770,900 19 6,100 1,024,600 Western European Production for Bloc as percent of Total Bloc Acquisition 20.0 17.5 20.3 Of interest in this breakdown is the decided drop in non-self- propelled vessels from over 94,000 GRT in 1953 to 57,000 GRT in 1955, a drop from about 60 percent of the total tonnage in 1953 to less than 30 percent in 1955. The construction of dry cargo vessels increased from 15 vessels of 27,000 GRT in 1953 to 40 vessels of over 98,000 GRT in 1955 and of fishing craft from 31 vessels totaling 12,000 GRT in 1953 to 46 vessels totaling 27,000 GRT in 1955. This indicates an increased interest by the Bloc in these, two types of vessels. -7- S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Types of Soviet Bloc Vessels Constructed in Western European Shipyards 7/ 1953 1954 Type of Vessel Number GRT Number GRT Number GRT Tankers 6 14,452 7 10,705 7 10,705 Fishing Vessels 31 12,091 34 20,920 46 27,320 Dry Cargo 15 27,016 21 4o,648 40 98,065 Dredgers 1 1,055 1 1,055 0 Tugs 14 5,612 19 6,082 23 6,245 Icebreakers 0 1 4,000 2 8,000 Non-Self-Propelled 94,320 76,516 57,196 Total . 154,546, 159,926 207,531 The construction of dry cargo vessels in 1952 and 1953 in the Soviet Bloc (Table 6)* amounted to approximately 40,000 GRT per year. Thus the tonnage of new dry cargo vessels constructed by Western Europe for the Bloc amounted to approximately 40 percent of the total dry cargo tonnage built and acquired by the Bloc in 1953 and by 1955 probably will be over 50 percent of the total tonnage built and acquired by the Bloc. The construction of fishing vessels in 1952 and 1953 in the Soviet Bloc (Table 7)** amounted to approximately 65,000 GRT per year. The tonnage of new fishing vessels constructed by Western Europe for the Bloc was approximately 15 percent of the total fishing fleet vessels built and acquired by the Bloc in 1953. By 1955 this percentage will be doubled. * Table 6 follows on p. 9. Table 7 follows on p..9. S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 6 Tonnage of Ocean-Going Dry Cargo Vessels Constructed in the Soviet Bloc 1952-53 1952 1953 USSR 8/ 9,990 lo,o6o East Germany 9/ 5,965 N.A. Czechoslovakia 10/ 0 0 Poland 11/ 24,127 27,777 Other Satellites N.A. N.A. 40,082 37,837 Tonnage of Fishing Vessels Constructed in the Soviet Bloc 1952-53 USSR 12/ East Germany 13/ Czechoslovakia 14/ Poland 15/ Other Satellites -9- S -E -C -R -E -T '1952 1953 16,300 17,040 44,160 45,000 (Estimated) 0 0 3,353 5,246 N.A. N.A. 63,813 67,286 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved. For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T An indication of the importance the Russians attach to the acquisition of fishing vessels is seen in the fact that they are exchanging, among other things, manganese and chromium ores and pitchblende (uranium ore) for the fish factory vessels recently ordered in West Germany. 16/ 4. Labor Inputs. In judging the relief that Soviet Bloc shipyards receive from Western European shipbuilding for the Bloc, manpower inputs form a far better gauge than does GRT. For that reason, shipyard labor, both direct and indirect, required for Bloc ship construction in Western Europe has been computed and tabulated in Table 8.* The man- years of shipyard labor used in this construction increased from under 13,000 in 1950 to 15,500 in 1953 and reaches nearly 24,000 in 1955. The man-years of shipyard labor in the Bloc engaged in new construction of all types amounts to approximately 326,000 (Table 9).** Thus ship- building during 1950-55 in Western Europe for the Bloc involves a labor input equal to from 4 percent to 7 percent of the total new con- struction labor force available for all shipbuilding in the Bloc (1952-53). Practically all Soviet Bloc; shipyards capable of building ocean-going vessels are now engaged in the construction of naval vessels. An embargo of Western European building for the Bloc might have resulted in the curtailment of naval building of minor com- batant and auxiliary types in the Bloc. An indication of this is seen in the recent displacement of cruiser construction in Soviet shipyards to provide way space for tanker construction. 17/ Another indication is seen in the comment of one of the members of the Soviet Trade Delegation to Western Germany that the reason the USSR had been so anxious to place the contract for fish factory vessels in Western Germany was that the only Soviet ship- yard capable of doing this work was located at Leningrad and that the Leningrad Yard had at present such a backlog of orders for the Soviet Navy that it would not have been able to deliver the vessels before 1957. 18/ Table 8 follows on p. 11. Table 9 follows on p. 11. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1` Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T Shipyard Labor Used in the Construction of Soviet Bloc Vessels in Western European Shipyards 19/ 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Belgium 785 1,200 485 945 2,090 3,088 Denmark 300 1,041 1,685 1,065 800 415 Finland 9,000 9,700 10,930 10,790 10,065 9,160 France 0 0 0 200 1,500 1,795 West Germany 0 0 0 0 3,000 3,000 UK 300 0 0 0 1,150 3,450 Italy 1,020 950 630 450 1,850 1,506 Netherlands 50 288 650 1,333 801 200 Sweden 1,294 2,988 2,252 707 896 1,272 12,749 16,167 16,632 15,490 22,152 23,886 Table 9 Total Shipyard Labor in the Soviet Bloc Engaged in New Construction USSR 20/ 1952 Merchant Ship Construction a/ 72,860 1952 Naval Vessel Construction 137,190 Total 210,050 Satellites 21/ 1953 Construction Total a. Mostly inland and coastal vess s. - 11 S -E -C -R -E -T 115,950 326,000 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T A measure of the displacement which might have resulted from a complete embargo of vessels to the Soviet Bloc can be gained from comparing the Western European man-years of shipyard labor used for the Bloc construction (15,500 in 1953) with the estimated man-years used to construct various types of naval vessels in the USSR (see Table 10). Estimated Man-years Required to Build Soviet Naval Vessels 22/ Standard Displacement (GRT) Man-years Destroyer 3,000 1,390 Submarine (Ocean Patrol) 1,500 835 Submarine (Medium Range) 600 335 Submarine (Coastal) 400 220 Mine Sweepers boo 280 It may be seen that had the Bloc been forced to obtain the vessels furnished by Western Europe from Bloc shipyards, 10 to 50 minor combatant naval craft might have been displaced annually. 5. Steel Inputs. Invoiced steel inputs for Soviet Bloc vessels built in Western European yards are tabulated in Table ll.* The steel used dropped from over 50,000 metric tons in 1950 and 1951 to 20,000 tons in 1953 because the USSR provided the steel required for ships built in Finland. 23/ These values are insignificant, however, in comparison with a total Bloc crude steel production in 1953 of 48 million metric tons. 24/ There are indications that the Soviet Bloc is willing to provide steel for Western European shipbuilding. As noted above, the USSR is providing all steel required for ships built under the Table 11 follows on p. 13- S -E -C -R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A00050011 0001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Invoiced Hull Steel Used in the Construction of Soviet Bloc Vessels in Western European Shipyards 27/ Country 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 Belgium _ 7,080 4,170 1,000 8,735 9,240 4,793 Denmark 960 5,786 6,749 963 2,889 963 Finland 40,000 a/ 33,500 24,200 b/ 2,660 b/ 0 0 France 0 0 0 0 6,375 6,375 West Germany 0 0 0 0 9,130 9,130 UK 960 0 0 0 1,325 3,975 Italy 1,600 / 380 400 2,668 5,541 926 Netherlands 570 3,140 4,070 5,020 1,500 250 Sweden 3,525 6,390 4,485 0 1,875 2,750 Total 54,695 53,366 40,904 20,046 37,875 29,162 a. Estimated. b. The USSR has provided all steel for vessels built in Finland under trade agree- ments. Approved For Release 1999/0910 .CIS- DP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T trade agreements in Finland and also offered to provide Denmark with steel for the construction of tankers and refrigerated cargo vessels. 25/ Denmark finally obtained this steel from Western sources because the USSR objected to mall inspection of the steel by Danish inspectors. 26/ 6. Main Propulsion Machinery. The main propulsion units obtained from non-Soviet Bloc sources and installed in Bloc vessels built in Western Europe have been tabulated in Table 12.* Both steam and diesel units installed are comparatively small, averaging 890 horsepower (HP) per plant for the steam plants, with a range of from 150 HP to 10,500 HP. Diesel units average 873 HP per plant, with a range of from 200 HP to 6,900 HP. Available figures on main propulsion machinery built in the Bloc, summarized in Table 13,** indicate that the average annual diesel machinery HP installed in Bloc vessels in Western Europe from 1950 to 1955 amounts to approximately 8 percent of the marine diesel machinery produced in the European Satellites in 1953 and is thus only a small contribution to the diesel production of the Bloc. Production in the USSR is estimated to equal at least Satellite production. The average annual installations of steam plants in Bloc vessels in Western Europe amount to less than 2 percent of the HP of marine steam turbines produced in the USSR during 1951. III. Ship Repairs in Western Europe for the Soviet Bloc. 1. General. An increasing number of Soviet Bloc vessels have put in to Western European yards for repair in recent years. Repairs are usually extensive and the length of overhaul often extends over 6 to 8 months. Shipyard labor rather than material inputs is the principal input going into these repairs. Material inputs are negligible. * Table 12 follows on p. 15. * Table 13 follows on p. 16. S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Main Propulsion Machinery Used in Soviet Bloc Vessels Built in Western European Shipyards 28 Type Units Horse- power Type Units Horse- power Type Units Horse- power Type Units Horse- power Type Units Horse- power Type Units Horse- power Belgium Diesel 6 8,340 Diesel 6 7,720 Diesel 2 3,400 Diesel 6 8,340 Diesel 9 15,000 Diesel 8 20 060 Denmark Diesel 1 4,200 Diesel 3 9,500 Diesel 7 5,100 Diesel 5 8,100 Diesel 3 3,900 Diesel 2 , 600 2 Finland N.A. N.A. Steam 38 20,800 Steam 31 17,500 Steam 20 12,000 Steam 21 24,900 Steam 21 , 34,800 N.A. N.A. Diesel 26 5,850 Diesel 29 11,435 Diesel 25 17,575 Diesel 27 19,075 Diesel 25 12,675 France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Steam 2 9,000 Steam 3 500 13 West Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel 5 10,000 Diesel 5 , 10 000 UK Steam 1 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel 5 4,825 Diesel 15 , 14,475 Italy Diesel 5 5,100 Diesel 4 3,500 Diesel 8 2,000 0 0 Diesel 8 6,250 Diesel 10 3 500 Steam 8 1,200 Steam 8 1,200 0 0 0 0 Steam 3 9,000 0 , 0 0 0 Steam 4 3,200 Steam 4 3,200 Steam 2 1,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Diesel 1 7,000 Diesel 3 11,800 Diesel 4 14 200 0 0 Sweden Steam 8 7,900 Steam 19 13,850 Steam 16 11,600 0 0 Steam 6 , 4,8oo Steam 8 6 400 Totals Diesel 14 5,290 Diesel 20 7,340 Diesel 16 6,380 Diesel 3 1,330 Diesel 1 850 0 , 0 Steam 57 11,100 J 69 39,050 51 32,300 22 13,600 32 47,700 32 54,700 Diesel 26 22,930 a/ 59 33,910 63 35,315 42 47,145 62 74 100 65 63 310 , , Approved For Release I 999/041( 2 6I' TDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Marine Engine Building in the Soviet Bloc 1953 Diesels Diesels Steam Propulsion Under 750 Over 750 Plants USSR 29/ Satellites 30/ N.A. N.A. 1,900,000 (1951 Steam Turbines Only) Albania 0 0 0 Bulgaria 0 0 0 Czechoslovakia .144,000 a/ 6,000 b/ N.A. East Germany 94,000 6:000 N.A. Hungary 302,800 19,200 N.A. Poland N.A. 10,300 N.A. Rumania 0 0 N.A. Total At least 540,800 At least 41,500 At least 1,900,000 a. 480 units estimated to average 300 horsepower. b. 6 units estimated to average 1,000 horsepower. - 16 - S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T- One feature in connection with the lengthy stay of these Soviet Bloc vessels which cannot be discounted is the fact that they frequently enter yards which are near concentrations of NATO vessels for possible espionage purposes. 31/ 2. Labor Inputs. An analysis of the ship repair industry from which the total Soviet Bloc repairs can be separated is-available only from Belgium. Extracts from this analysis are listed in Table 14*, and indicate that during 1950-52 average Bloc repairs far exceed in cost the average of repairs for non-Bloc vessels ($39,000 for Bloc vessels compared to $7,500 for all vessels repaired). A further breakdown of these Belgian repair costs for the Soviet Bloc, (Table 15**) indicates that the average repair costs of Soviet vessels is $118,000 compared to only $14,000 for Satellite vessels. The high cost of USSR vessel repair implies major reconditioning of the vessels rather than an annual over- haul. In other Western European countries doing repair work for the Soviet Bloc, the usual information available lists only the name of the vessel, the GRT, and the length of overhaul. To use this, labor inputs have been estimated by developing a cost per GRT per day factor from which the estimates of shipyard labor used in the repair of Bloc vessels have been derived. A summary of these labor inputs is shown in Table 16.E The repair of Soviet Bloc vessels-in Western European shipyards utilizes only a very small percent (slightly over 1 percent in 1952 and less than t percent in 1951 and 19,53) of the 400,000 shipyard workers in Western Europe. 32/ Thus the impact of this repair on Western European yards is negligible. So far as the Bloc is concerned these repairs add materially to the relief afforded Bloc shipyards by the construction of Bloc vessels.**** The total labor force in the USSR in 1952 engaged in ship repair work was 102,000 with the majority of workers engaged in the repair of inland and coastal vessels. 33/ * Table 1 follows on p. 18. * Table 15 follows on p. 19. * Table 16 follows on p. 19. * See Section II, 3, above. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/ RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Table 14 Statistics on the Ship Repair Industry of Belgium 34/ Industry Wide 1951 1952 Total Repair Workers 4,417 6,929 5,725, Total Wages Dollars 5,611,760 10,571,320 11,313,660 Total Hours Worked Thousands 8,896 16,000 14,008 Average Wage per Hour Dollars .631 .660 .8o8 Cost of Repairs - All Vessels Dollars 17,093,580 2.9,110,000 34,1164, 000 3 Major Yards Total Number Vessels Repaired 2,149 1,601 2,623 .Total Cost of Repairs 8,593,587 (2 yards only) 19,011,940 26,240,338 (13,243,980 - Percent of Industry 50 2 yards only) 65 76 Bloc Vessels Repaired 37 38 34 Cost of Repairs - Bloc Vessels Dollars 1,029,177 2,241,045 957,558 Average Cost Repair per Vessel Dollars 4,ooo 8,270 10,000 Average Cost Repair per Bloc Vessel Dollars 27,800 59,000 28,200 Worker-hours Bloc Repair Hours 810,000 1,700,000 590,000 Man-years Bloc Repair Man-years 400 735 242 18 - S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T Table 15 Ship Repairs for the Soviet Bloc in Belgium 35/ Soviet Vessels Satellite Vessels Costs Costs Year Number (Dollars) Number (Dollars) 1950 10 885,514 27 143,663 1951 10 1,600,891 28 640,154 1952 6 579,741 28 377,817 26 3,066,146 83 1,161,634 Average Cost per Vessel 118,000 14,000 Shipyard Labor Expended on Repairs of Soviet Bloc Vessels in Western European Shipyards 36/ Man-years Country 1950 1951 1952 1953 Belgium 400 735 242 615 Denmark N.A. 103 336 188 France N.A. N.A. 458 N.A. UK N.A. 210 404 303 Italy N.A. 1,559 2,308 739 Netherlands N.A. 454 687 423 Minimum Total 4oo 3,061 4,435 2,268 Repairs in Western European yards for the Bloc amounted to approximately 4 percent of the total Soviet repair load in 1952. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T If shipyard work is required in Western Europe to relieve unemployment, it might seem more attractive to the West to repair Soviet Bloc vessels rather than build new vessels for the Bloc since ship repair labor costs usually amount to 50 to 70 percent of the total cost, whereas new construction labor costs are only 35 percent of the total. This comparison relates only to labor in shipyards. Also, repairs of Bloc vessels do not add to the size or reduce the average age of the Bloc fleets. IV. Conclusions. 1. Western European shipbuilding for the Soviet Bloc adds materially to the tonnage of new construction vessels of all types built and acquired by the Bloc, amounting to approximately 20 per- cent of the estimated total merchant tonnage acquired in the years 1953, 1954 and 1955. In 1953 the Bloc dry cargo vessels constructed in Western Europe amounted to approximately 40 percent of the tonnage of dry cargo vessels constructed in the Bloc, and by 1955 will probably exceed 50 percent. The Bloc construction in Western Europe has increased the number of vessels added to the Bloc fishing fleet by approximately 15 percent of the tonnage added to the fleet in 1953. By 1955 this percentage will probably double. 2. The relief afforded Soviet Bloc shipyards by shipbuilding in Western Europe as measured in man-years of shipyard labor amounts to from 4 percent (1950) to 7 percent (1955) of the total Bloc shipyard labor engaged in new construction in 1952-53. Had Bloc shipyards been forced to construct vessels built in Western Europe,'10 to 50 vessels in the Bloc naval construction program of minor combatant types (destroyers, submarines, and minesweepers) might have been displaced. 3. The main propulsion machinery obtained from non-Soviet Bloc sources and installed in Bloc vessels built in Western Europe did not augment Bloc production to any great extent. The hull steel inputs in these vessels were insignificant compared to total Bloc steel production. 4. Labor expended on repairs of ocean-going Soviet Bloc vessels, in Western Europe in 1952 amounted to about 4 percent of the Soviet shipyard manpower engaged in repairs to vessels of all types -- inland, coastal, and ocean-going. This added materially to the relief afforded Bloc shipyards by the building o Bloc vessels in Western Europe. - 20 - S-E-C -R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY I. Shipbuilding Costs and Labor Inputs. 1. Details of shipbuilding costs, from which labor inputs can be obtained, are most jealously guarded by shipbuilders and are not readily available. Such cost data as are released are often mis- leading since there is no standardization of accounting precedures among the various shipyards. Table 17* lists data found on costs in Western European yards. From these data it appears that 35 percent of the total shipbuilding cost is spent for direct and indirect labor. A per- centage of 35 percent has therefore been used in this report to break down total costs and obtain man-hours of direct and indirect labor (dividing the labor cost by the average wage). 2. Average wages used in this report in computing man-years of shipyard labor in the several countries are shown in Table 18.** 3. In those cases where no costs are available, man-year estimates were computed from estimated values of GRT per man-year for the several countries. 37/ II. Ship Repair Costs and Labor Inputs. 1. In order to estimate repair costs of Soviet Bloc vessels in Western European yards where only the GRT of the vessel and the length of stay in port are known, an average value of cost per GRT per day was developed which though undoubtedly unreliable in individual cases is believed to be accurate in estimating a number of overhauls. 2. In only one country, Belgium, was there a fairly complete analysis available of the ship repair industry. Tables 14 and l5*** have been extracted from this analysis for the years 1950, 1957.,.and 1952. It may be noted from Table 15 that the cost of repair of Bloc Table 17 follows on p. 22. Table 18 follows on p. 23. P. 18-19, above. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Breakdown of Western European Shipbuilding Costs Country Type Direct and Indirect Labor (Percent) West Germany 38/ Motor Cargo 175 LSD a/ 38 Motor Cargo 274 LSD 43 Motor Trawler 500 LSD 33 Steam Trawler 620 LSD 42 Motor Cargo 1,294 LSD 31 Motor Tanker 1,200 LSD 35 Motor Trawler 615 LSD 31 Motor Cargo 1,770 LSD 33 Motor Cargo 1,208 LSD 31 Motor Cargo 1,102 LSD 29 e Avera 34 6 g . Denmark 39/ Motor Cargo 6,700 GRT b 33 Netherlands 40/ Turbine Tanker 31,000 DWT c 36 West Germany Turbine Tanker 35,550 DWT 37 Netherlands 41/ Motor Cargo 6,165 GRT 40 Motor Tanker 12,054 GRT 35 Small Cargo 42/ 30 (Production in one plant) 43/ 36 a. LSD - Light ship displacement is the weight of the ship complete, in tons of 2,240 pounds, ready for service in every respect but without crew and their effects or any items of consumable or variable load. b. GRT - Gross registered tonnage is the total volume within the enclosed portion of the ship including deck houses (with certain minor exceptions), expressed in units of 100 cubic feet to a ton. c. DWT - Deadweight tonnage is the difference in tons of 2,240 pounds, between the full load displacement and the light displacement of a ship. This represents the carrying capacity of the vessel. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T Table 18 Average Wage in the Shipbuilding Industry in Western Europe 1952 Dollars per Hour Reported Wage Used Country for 1952 Other in Report Belgium 0.58 0.58 Denmark o.64 0.45 45/ 0.45 France 0.41 Metal Trades - 1952 1951-52 0.40 1955 0.45 Unskilled 0.327) Semiskilled 0.398)Average 0.394 Skilled 0.457) Germany 0.407 1951 - 0.415 46/ 1955 o.45 1953 - 0.43 UK 0.54 Average Shipbuilding 1950-52 0.524 and Repair 1952 0.516)Average 0.524 1953 0.565 1953 0.532) 1954-55 0.60 April 1952 0.535) After November 1952 0.565)48/ Italy 0.34 Engineering Trades - 1952 49/ 1950-52 0.264 Highly Skilled 0.17 to 0.284) Skilled 0.159 to 0.271) Average 0.208 Special Laborers 0.155 to 0.245) Other 0.150 to 0.232) Netherlands 0.37 All Metal Trades Q2/ 1951-53 0.36 1952 0.36 1953 0.368 Sweden 0.93 All Shipyard Workers 51/ 1950-53 0.565 0.80 1951 0.565 52/ - 23 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T vessels averages $39,000 per vessel over the 3 years compared to an average cost per vessel of all vessels repaired of $7,500. A further breakdown of the data indicates that the repair costs of Soviet vessels as a class are particularly high averaging $118,000 per vessel over the 3-year period compared to $14,000 per vessel for the Satellites. The cost per ton per day of all Soviet vessels, assuming an average over- haul of 2 months and an average GRT of 5,500 (the average of all Bloc vessels individually reported in 1952 and 1953), is $0.413. There are only two Belgian repair costs available on individual Bloc vessels. These indicated an average cost per GRT per day of $0.43. 53/ 3. In Italy, repair costs were reported on 14 Bloc vessels on which there are definite dates of arrival and departure, Table 19.* These costs average $0.425 per GRT per day. 4. In the Netherlands, repair costs were reported for one vessel, the SS Pskov, 7,176 GRT. The cost was $238,000 for an overhaul of 78 working days or $0.425 per GRT per day. 54/ 5. In Great Britain, one report 55/ indicated a repair.cost in excess of 100,000 pounds. Based on the rate derived from Italian data ($0.425 per GRT per day) the costs are $406,000 or 145,000 pounds. 6. In view of the Italian data and confirmation in other countries the rate of $0.425 per GRT per day has been used in this. report in computing overhaul costs. This compares with US values 56/: Type of Vessel Length of Overhaul Annually (Days) Cost per GRT per Day (Dollars) Cargo 18 0.77 Transport 20 + (2 x 7) - 34 0.535 Small Tanker 18 1.42 It also compares with values from a British shipping company which reported annual repair costs as $5.60 per GRT. 57/ Based on an 18-day overhaul period this amounts to $0.31' per GRT per day. . * Table 19 follows on p. .25. - 24 - S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S -E -C -R -E -T Table 19 Soviet Bloc Ship Repair Costs in Italy 58/ Repair Cost (Million Lira) Length of Stay (Months) GRT Parnis 850 10 6,492 Karaganda 66 2 5,627 Maxim Gorki 224 6 1,021 Timiresliev 44.5 2 6,094 Ismail 70 2 5,670 Belorussiya 46.5 3 6,o4o Lermartov 70 2 6,o77 Vostok 56 3 5,763 Krasnodar 60 5 4,168 Kolchoznik 41.5 11 7,148 Gen. Chemakovsky 3 T 6,121 Stalinabad 62 1 7,176 Andrew Suvarov 140 3 7,176 Bulgaria 51 22 4,191 1,856.5 48 78,764 Average Cost Average Time Average GRT 132.6 million lira $212,200 48 x 26 = 89 days l~- 78 764 = 5,626\ Cost per GRT per Day . $212,200 . 0.424 . 265 lira 89 x 5 ,6226 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T 7. The percentage of total repair cost used for wages is estimated to be 50-70 percent depending upon the length of overhaul. In this report the following percentages have been used: Length of Overhaul Labor Costs as a Percentage (Days) of Total Cost Up to 26 7o 26 to 52 60 52 to 78 50 8. It is interesting to compare the above values with Soviet percentages: Labor Costs as a Percentage of Total Cost Work Western Europe (Percent) USSR 59/ (Percent) New Construction 35 Repair Capital Repair 50 a/ 18 b/ Medium Repair to 24 Current Repair 70 32 a. Repair costs are 1.4 to -2 times new con- struction percentage. b. Repair costs are 1.5 to 2.7 times new con- struction percentage. These figures indicate that the labor cost percentages assumed for Western Europe and those reported for the USSR bear relatively the same relation to the new construction labor cost percentage. III. Steel Inputs. The net steel in the hull is derived from the displacement (light ship), the deadweight tonnage, or the GRT using the average percentages shown in Table 20.* Ten percent is added in each case * Table 20 follows on p.27. - 26 - S -E -C -R -E -T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T for wastage to obtain "invoiced" steel. In the case of dredgers and hopper barges, steel weights have been computed from tables in Kari. 601 Comparison of Net Steel in the Hull as a Percent of Light Ship Displacement, a/ Deadweight Tonnage, b/ or GRT 61/ Type of Vessel Percent of Light Ship Displacement Percent of Deadweight Tonnage Percent of GRT Small Tanker 66 26 40 Small Motor Cargo Vessel Shelter Deck 62 31 52 Full Scantling 62 31 36 Trawler 47 49 51 Small Tug 36 Non-Self-Propelled Vessel 90 a. The light ship displacement is the weight of the ship complete, in tons of 2,240 pounds, ready for service in every respect but without crew and their effects or any items of consumable or variable load. b. The deadweight tonnage is the difference in tons of 2,240 pounds, between the full load displacement and the light displacement of a ship. This represents the carrying capacity of the vessel. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 APPENDIX B GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE The principal gap is in information on the construction of non- self-propelled vessels in all countries other than Finland. There are indications that this construction amounts to considerable tonnage annually but no detailed information is available. Secondary gaps exist in detailed information regarding con- struction costs and also repair costs. C_Pi s_R_F.-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A00050011.0001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 APPENDIX C SOURCES AND EVALUATION OF SOURCES 1. Evaluation of Sources. The principal sources of information for this report were as follows: a. State Department reports. b. Naval Attache reports. c. Maritime Attache reports. d. Trade journals and newspapers. All these sources provided information which was evaluated as probably true. The facilities of the CIA Library were used to the fullest extent, and numerous documents on East-West trade and Western European shipbuilding were examined. The detailed com- putations from which tables of GRT, labor, steel, and main propulsion machinery inputs were compiled are on file in ORR. Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated "Eval.," have the following significance: A - Completely reliable Doc. - Documentary B - Usually reliable 1 - Confirmed by other sources C - Fairly reliable 2 - Probably true D - Not usually reliable 3 - Possibly true E - Not reliable 4 - Doubtful F - Cannot be judged 5 - Probably false 6 - Cannot be judged "Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff officer, all of which will carry the field evaluation "Documentary" instead of a numerical grade. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C-R-E-T Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document. 25X1A2g OCI, Current Intelligence Digest, No. 2245, 4 Feb 1954. S. Eval. RR 2. New York Times, 5 Feb 1954. U. Eval. RR 2. e Shipping World, 11 Nov 1953, p. 395. U. Eval. RR 2. State, Paris, Despatch No. 1575, 15 Dec 1953. C. Eval. RR 2. New York Times, 28 Feb 1954. U. Eval. RR 2. 25X1A2 2. State, Helsinki, Despatch No. 656, 13 Apr 1953. C. g Eval. RR 2. Eval. RR 2. 3. Lloyds' Register Shipbuilding Returns, quarterly, 1946-53. U. Eval. RR 2. 4. CIA ORR, I/SA Files. S. Eval. RR 2. 5. Lloyds' Register Shipbuilding Returns, 1953. U. Eval. RR 2. 6. CIA ORR, I S Contribution to Project No. 116. S, US OFFICIALS ONLY. CIA ORR, I/SH Contribution to NIE 108. S. 7. CIA ORR, I/SH Files. S. Eval..RR 2. 8. CIA ORR, WP 35-51, Input Requirements of the Submarine and Shipbuilding Industry of the USSR, 20 Feb 1953. S. 9. CIA ORR, Project No. 35-242, The Shipbuilding Industry of the Soviet Zone of Germany (unpublished). S. US OFFICIALS ONLY. 10. CIA/RR 31, The Shipbuilding Industry of Czechoslovakia, 19 Mar 195 S, US OFFICIALS ONLY. 11. CIA ORR, Project No. 35.241, The Shipbuilding and Ship Com- ponent Industries of Poland unpublished . S, US OFFICIALS ONLY. 12. CIA ORR, WP 35-51, op. cit. 13. CIA ORR, Project No. 35.272, op. cit. 14. CIA/RR 31, op. cit. 15. CIA ORR, Project No. 35.241, op. cit. 16. State, Hamburg, Despatch No. 291, 2 Feb 1954. C. Eval. RR 2. 25X1 A2g7 . State, Moscow, Despatch No. 191, 10 Dec 1953- C. Eval. RR 2. S. Eval. RR 2. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 S-E-C -R-E-T 18. State, Hamburg, Despatch No. 291, 2 Feb 1954. U. Eval. RR 3. 19. CIA ORR, I/SF! Files. S. 20. CIA ORR, I/SH Contribution to Project No. 0.4. S. 21. CIA ORR, I/SH Contribution to NIE 108. S, US OFFICIALS ONLY. 25X1A2g 22. CIA Estimate. S. 23. 25X1A2g 25. CIA Estimate. S. 26. State, Copenhagen, Despatch No. 817, 1 Apr 1952. S. Eval. RR 2. 27. CIA ORR, I/SIF Files. S. 28. Ibid. 29. CIA ORR, I/SH Contribution to Project No. 0.4. S. 30. CIA ORR, I/SK Contribution to NIE 108. S, US OFFICIALS ONLY. 31. Christian Science Monitor, 15 Mar 1953. U. Eval. RR 2. 32. State, Stockholm, Despatch No. 952, 9 Apr 1953. C. Eval. RR 2. 33? CIA ORR, I/SH Contribution to Project No. 0.4. S. 34. State, Antwerp, Despatch No. 41, 5 Aug 1953. U. Eval. RR 2. State, Antwerp, Despatch No. 454, 11 Jun 1952. U. Eval. RR 2. State, Antwerp, Despatch No. 455, 11 Jun 1951. U. Eval. RR 2. State, Antwerp, Despatch No. 188, 4 Dec 1950. U. Eval. RR 2. 35. Ibid. 36. CIA ORR, I/SH Files. S. 37. CIA Estimate. S. 38. State, The Hague, Despatch No. 319, 11 Sep 1952. C. Eval. RR 2. 39. State, The Hague, Despatch No. 320, 11 Sep 1952. C. 25X1A2g 40 Eval. RR 2. . 25X1A2g 41. State, The Hague, Despatch No. 1536, 6 Mar 1952. C. Eval. RR 2. 42. State, London, Despatch No. 2007, 1 Nov 1951. U. Eval. RR 2. 43. State, London, Despatch No. 5619, 23 May 1952. C. Eval. RR 2. 44. State, Stockholm, Despatch No. 952, 9 Apr 1953. C. 46. Maritime Administration, Rates of Wages and/or Earnings in Selected Countries, 7 May 1953. U. Eval. RR 2. 47. Ibid. 48. Fairplay, London, 13 Nov 1952. U. Eval. RR 2. 45. -33- S-E-C -R-E-T Eval. RR 2. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Rase 1999/09102 A RtDP79-01093A000500110001-1 49. Maritime Administration, op. cit. 50. Ibid. 51. Ibid. 52. The Shipping World, 26 Dec 1951. U. Eval. RR 2. 25X1 A29 53. 54. 55. State, Glasgow, Despatch No. 116, 26 Mar 1953. S. Eval. RR 2. 56. CIA ORR, I/SH Files. C. Eval. RR 2. 57. The-Ship ing World, 26 Aug 1953. U. Eval. RR 2., 58. Atlantic Command, Weekly Intelligence Summary, 8 Jan 1953. S. Eval. RR 2. State, Genoa, Despatch No. 185, 20 Jun 1952. S. Eval. RR 2. 25X1A2g State, Naples, Despatch No. 583, 12 Dec 1951. S. 59. Rechnoy Transport, No. 1, 1949. U. Eval. RR 2. 60. Alexander Kari, The Design and Cost Estimating of all Types of Merchant and Passenger Ships, London, The Technical Press, Ltd., 1948. U. 61. CIA Estimate'. C. Approved For Release 1999/09/02 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000500110001-1 Approved For Release 1999/09/02`' : CIA-RDP79-01.093A000500110001-1 US OFFICIALS ONLY US OFFICIALS ONLY Approved For Release 19'99/0 P79-01093A000500110001-1