COBALT IN THE SOVIET BLOC

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• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000600080008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 40
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2000
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: September 24, 1954
• Content Type: IR

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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
CIA/RR PR-76
(ORR Project 23.175)
24 September 1954
11 DECLA
hIE=?:T I?EVILW DATE:
RUTH: Ir 70-,
CLA CLIANGED
D ..~: Qr REVlEWEF1:_3(?g
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE
TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
Office of Research and Reports
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
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CONFIDENTIAL
Because of the strategic importance of cobalt in the production
of military end items, reliable information about the production and
use of cobalt in the Soviet Bloc is very scarce. The purpose of
this research aid is to present the data that are available, to
derive estimates from them,and to formulate conclusions based on the
data and the estimates and -- to some extent -- on US analogy.
US analogy has been a useful aid in deriving a quantitative
cobalt use pattern in the Soviet Bloc. For that reason, US data
are presented in some detail.
Quantitative estimates in this research aid should be considered
tentative.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary' .
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. Principal Uses of Cobalt . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1. Metallic . . . . 5
2. Nonmetallic . . . 6
II. Supply . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
A. USSR 6
1. Development of the Industry b
2. Reserves . . . . 7
3. Production 8
B. Satellites . 12
1. Reserves 12
2. Production . . . 15
III. Consumption and Requirements . . 15
A. USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
B. Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1. East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2. Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .? . 18
3. Other Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Co Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
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Pale
IV . Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
A. Intr.-Soviet Dioc '~ade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
B. East-west Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Appendix 14..
Appendix
Appendix
Appendix
Appendix
Appendix
Appendixes
Cobalt in. Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Cobalt-":searing Mineral Deposits in the USSR . . 25
Uses o Cobalt in the US . . . . . . . . . . 27
Methodolo8Zr . 29
Gaps in Intelligence 31
Sources and Evaluation of Sources . . . . . . . 33
Tables
1. Estimated Reserves of Cobalt in the USSR, 1939-54 . . . . 9
Estimated Production of Cobalt from Nickel Ores in the
USSR, 19 53 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . es . . . . 11
3. Estimated Production of Cobalt in the USSR, 1948-55 . . .
4. Production of Cobalt in the USSR as Compared with Other
Countries, 1952 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5. Cobalt Deposits in Communist China . . . . . . . . . . .
6. Cobalt Deposits in North Korea . . . . . , . . . . . a .
13
14
14
7. Consumption of Cobalt in the US, by Uses, 1949-53 . . . . 27
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CIA/RR PR-76
(ORR Project 23.175)
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COBPLT IN THE SOVIET BLOC*
Sunmary
The production of cobalt in the Soviet Bloc is limited almost
entirely to the USSR. Comunist China, North Korea, and East Ger-
many are reported to have produced small quantities, but Satellite
production in total has been negligible. Production of cobalt in the
USSR in 1953 is estimated at 1,300 metric tons,,; a production second
only to that of the Belgian Congo.
Production in 1951 is estimated
at about 2,000 tons, roughly 13 percent of the world's 1954 supply
of cobalt.
The reserves of cobalt-bearing ore -- largely nickel -- of the
USSR are estimated to be approximately 49,000 tons of metallic cobalt
content. Communist China and North Korea have some reserves, but
available data .do not support a quantitative estimate. At the 1954
production rate of about 2,000 tons of cobalt annually, the reserves
of the Soviet Bloc will permit production for a period of about 25
years.
Reliable estimates of trade in cobalt and cobalt-bearing ores
cannot be made. Available information indicates that intra-Bloc
trade consists primarily of shipments of metallic cobalt from the
USSR to the Satellites -- not more than 100 tons in 1953 -- and
small shipments . of cobalt-bearing ores from Communist China and North
Korea to the USSR. East-West trade in cobalt is, of course, pro-
scribed under CGCOM agreements., but by clandestine transshipment. the
Soviet Bloc imported an estimated 200 tons in 1953, largely from
,{lest Germany and France.
\ quantitative use pattern for cobalt in the Soviet Bloc cannot
be firmly established. The application of US a.nalo#;y to available
data, however, permits 1953 quantitative estimates which are signif-
icant, if not completely reliable.
't Me estimates and conclusions contained in this research aid
represent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of
1 July 1954.
4s, Throughout this research aid tonnages are given in metric tons,
unles^ otherwise specified.
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The aircraft engine industry in the USSR is the largest consumer
of cobalt. It is estimated that in 1953 about 2400 tons of cobalt were
used in the manufacture of vanes and blades for the VK-11` jet engine,
and the industry probably consumed some cobalt for other uses. The
electrical industry consumed about 130 tons of cobalt in the manufac-
ture of TMalnico'i magnets. About 80 tons of cobalt were consumed as
binder for cemented carbides, which are used in the manufacture of
High-speed cutting tools and the lil e. Other uses consumed some,
cobalt, but no firm data on those uses are available, and a quan-
titative estimate based on US analogy would have little significance.
Total 1953 consumption of cobalt in the USSR, then, is estimated at
about 600 tons. This estimate is definitely a miaimiun; it does not
include cobalt consumed for uses which cannot be identified and for
which quantitative estimates cannot be made.
The 1953 consumption of cobalt for all purposes in Communist
China and the European Satellites is estimated at not more than 300
tons. In all probability, a major portion of the end products con-
taining this cobalt is returned to the USSR. Of the total 300-ton
Satellite requirement the USSR supplied approximately 100 tans; the
remainder is balanced by the estimated 200 tons imported by the
loc from the 'eft and can be eliminated as a factor in the consump-
tion-to-production ratio.
The estimated consumption of 600 tons of cobalt by the USSR plus
the 100 tons egorted to the Satellites indicates that 700 tons of
the 1,800 tons produced in the Soviet Bloc in 1953 were actually
used. Even assuming that the 700-ton estimate of consumption by the
''loc is very low, there is still a wide gap between production and
consumption. This gap might well indicate an extensive stockpiling
program. 1,ltho..gh the is no firm evidence of. such a program, it
is logical to conclude that a metal of the strategic importance of
cobalt is definitely being stockpiled. Because there is no available
information on the historical background of the stockpiling program,
it is impossible to make a quantitative estimate of the present
Soviet stockpile.
The capability of the Soviet Bloc to increase long-term production
of cobalt is limited by the relatively short-term reserves. Sub-
~tantial increase of total supply by imports is presently limited
nr COCOM restrictions. The capability of the cobalt industry of
the Soviet Bloc in time of war, however, cannot be firmly evaluated.
There is no evidence to indicate that the Bloc could not increase
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short-term production within 6 months or a year of any given date,
and such an increase coupled with the probable stockpiled reserves
might well satisfy the immediate requirements of a wartime ecgnomy.
Three additional factors might affect the wartime capability of
the Soviet Bloc cobalt industry. (1) Should Soviet scientists
develop a satisfactory substitute for cobalt as an alloying metal, a
development which is possible but probably not imminent, the demands
on the supply of cobalt would be somewhat eased. (2) Soviet efforts
to conserve cobalt, demonstrated by the fact that -- contra.x^r to US
practice -- no cobalt is used in 'the manufacture of reciprocating
engines for aircraft, might extend the cobalt supply appreciably.
(3) In the event of war the USSR might take over the Finnish copper
mine at Outokumpu, the ore from which is cobalt bearing, and could
augment the prese;i!t total Soviet Bloc supply by about 21" percent.
All three of these f actors are affected, in' turn, by the fact that
increased supplies of cobalt would be partially consumed by addition-
al demands for new uses.
The cobalt industry of the Soviet Bloc is vu7 nerablo only to the
extent that production facilities are concentrated in four refineries
and to the extent that-the Bloc is dependent on imports from the
Jest.
A marked increase in Soviet efforts to purchase cobalt from the
West or a substantial expansion of the cobalt production facilities
of the Soviet Bloc would be indicators of Soviet military intentions.
Considering the- ?mown reserves of cobalt-bearing ores in the Soviet
Bloc and their possible augmentation by Finnish reserves, and
assuming that the USSR has been stockpiling cobalt in considerable
quantities since the beginning of Soviet production in 12)O, it is
probable that cobalt will continue to have nigh priority on the Soviet
list of critical metals.
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I. Introduction.
1. General.
'?ecause cobalt is an alloyinL; .metal ecsentia1 in the produc-
tion of a number of military end items -- notry.blzr ca?~;:; .res for jet
aircraft -- its production, supply, and utilis^.ton in the "Quiet
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Since cobalt is produced in the USSR largely as a bypro-
duct of nickel refining, there is a fairly stable relationship
between cobalt production and nickel production. This relationship
varies between the various nickel combines, chiefly as a result of
the different cobalt contents of their nickel ore supplies. Standard
grades of refined nickel in the USSR contain about 1 percent cobalt.
31/ Thus, by adjusting the cobalt-to-nickel ratios given in Table 1
for this 1 percent loss, it is possible to arrive at estimates of
cobalt production as a byproduct of nickel production.
Table 2 shows estimated production of cobalt from nickel
ores in the USSR, 1953.
Estimated Production of Cobalt from Nickel Ores in the USSR
1953
Plant
Production of
Nickel 32/
(Metric Tons)
Percentage Factor
Representing
Recoverable Cobalt
Production
of Cobalt
(Metric
Tons)
Percent
of Total
Monchegorsk a/
15,000
1.7
250
16
Verkhniy UfaTey
4,000
1.5
60
4
Orsk
15,000
4.0
600
38
Norilsk
8,000
8.1
650
42
Total
42,000
1,560
100
a.
Inc uudes production- rom Tech.enga ores.
Table 3* shows estimated production of cobalt in the
USSR, 1948-55.
Table 4*-f shows production of cobalt in the USSR as com-
paredwith other cobalt-producing countries in 1952.
Ta'61e o lows on p. 12.
Table 4 follows on p. 13.
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Table 3
Estimated Production of Cobalt in the USSR
1948-55
Year
Production of
Nickel 33/ _
Cobalt Produced
from Nickel Ores
Other Produc-
tion b/ 3L./
Total c/
19118
25,000
930
240
1,170
1949
29,000
1,080
240
1,320
1950
32,000
1,190
246
1,430
1951
35.'000
1000
240
1,540
1952
39,000
1,450
240
1,690
1953
42,000
1,560
240
1,800
1954
45,000
1,670
240
1,910
1955
49,000
1,320
240
2,060
a. Based on e caculations in ab2.` 3 produc ion o -cobalt
from nickel ores was 3.71 percent of production of nickel. This same
ratio has been applied to the other years,
b. Chiefly Dashkesan, for which a steady rate of production is
estimated.
c. Figures are maximum estimates and may be as much as .25 percent
high.
B. Satellites.
1. Reserves.
Communist China and North Korea are the only Satellites
with cobalt deposits worthy of mention.
a. Communist China.
Cobalt deposits in Communist China are located
mainly in Yunnan Province. Fukien Province has several small man-
ganese deposits which contain minor amounts of cobalt. There is
not sufficient information available to permit an estimate of
Chinese cobalt reserves.
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Table 4
Production of Cobalt in the USSR
as Compared with Other Countries a/
1952
Cobalt Production b/
Country (Metric Tons) Percent of Total
Belgian Congo
French Morocco
Northern Rhodesia
Canada
Us
Other
USSR
6,831
1, 000
585
592
379
613
1, 690
11"69o
58
9
5
5
3
5
15
a. Latest est year or which detailed data are avai ab e~5 for non-Soviet
Bloc countries. Non-Bloc production for 1953 is estimated at 12,000
metric tons by the US ;2ureau of Mines. Estimated Soviet production
in 1953 (Table 3) would thus be about 13 percent of world total.
b. See Table 3 for source of USSR estimate; for other countries,
35/.
Table 5* shows the location of the known cobalt
deposits in Communist China.
b. North Korea.
In 1946, US Army technicians estimated North Korea's
cobalt reserve at 1G22,0O0 tons of ore. averaging 0.1 percent to 0.2
percent of cobalt. 36/ It is believed that this estLmate does not
include the deposit in the vicinity of Tanch+on, which was to have
been exploited on a large scale. 37/
T, __Ta`b_Te__5_ T=ows on p. !4,.
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S E C R E T
i a.'ole ; 3 ;,/
Cobalt Deposits in Com-:1- nist China.
Deposit
P' ing-i
25?43' N - 104009'
E
Pu-min
25?14' N - 102?30'
E
Sun.-ming
25?22' N - 103?O1'
E
Hsun-tien
25034' N - 103?12'
E
Chan-i
25038' N - 103?38'
Ch'eng-kung
25?55' N - 102?49'
E
Chin-ring
24?44' N - 102?42'
E
Hsuan-.aei
26?14' N - 104?00'
E
Tu-nan
24?46' N - 103?l7'
E
Table 6 shows the location and type of known cobalt
deposits in North T orea.
Table 6 39/
Cobalt Deposits in North Korea
w_____ Deposit
Coordinates
42?25' N - 129?45' E
Type of Ore
Smaltite
Ioeryong - Cobalt Hoeryong-gun,
H arrl Tong-pukto
Unsong - Nickel Tanch'on-gun,
Hyangyo ng-namdo
dondong - Gold Kunhwa-gun,
Hwanghae-do
40?39' N - 129?01' E
38?16' N - 1.28?10' E
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Cobalt,
Nickel-bearing
Pyrrhotite
Cobaltite-
Erythrite
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2. Production.
a. Communist China.
Communist China produces small quantities of cobalt
ores and salts which traditionally have been used in the porcelain
industry. In recent years it has exported-small quantities of
cobalt pr.es arid-concentrates to the European S b ellites. The quan-
tity of these exports and the level of current production are un-
known.
Communist China has no known facilities for the re-
duction of cobalt metal. Successful experiments in extracting pure
cobalt metal from Chinese ores have been announced by the China
Academy of Sciences, 1i0/ and it is possible that cobalt-refinin
facilities may be established.
b. North Korea.
Prior to 1950, cobalt was produced at the Haeju
Smelting Works, National Ore Refinery, Haeju (37?51' N 125?42' E).
production early in 1950 was at the rate of 1 ton a month, all of
which was exported to the USSR. L1/ Haeju was bombed during the
recent hostilities. 42/ It is b1ieved that production of cobalt
will be restored at We earliest possible date, and that it will
be used to compensate the USSR for part of its aid.
c. East Germany.
1~lthoug East Germany has no 17nown deposits of
cobalt, small amounts have been recovered from other nonferrous
metal refining in recent years. Planned production in 1952 was
28.2 tons. L3/ It is not known whether this ?oal was attained.
Plans for 173 and 1954 did not call for the production of cobalt. Li/
III. Consumption and tequirements.
Only fragmentary estimates are available on consumption of
cobalt in the Soviet Bloc. These estimates are given as the best
available, even though they may contain sul,stantial errors.
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use of cobalt for norrianent mcgne-tts is so important
that an estimate of So?riet cons _artion for this purpose has been
:jade in spite of the involved `lethodolog,r required. .`_'he Bureau of
Mines has constructed coefficients for U5 cobalt consumption in
magnets for peacetime and for periods of mobilization. These
coe.f:Ficients were constructed by relating the cobalt input for magnets
to the dollar output of the electrical industry. It was recognized
that the peacetime coefficient, 0.2921 (pounds of cobalt per ;1,000
of production, 1947 dollars), included many noncritical uses. The
mobilization coefficient, 0.1619, based on 1952 conditions, was
considered the better one because it included a minimum of non-
essential magnet uses. The estimated value of 1953 production of
the Soviet electrical industry in terms of 1947 dollars was
?;,1, 740, 000, 000. 46/ The cobalt consumption derived by appl1ring
the mobilization coefficient to this figure is as follows:
l,740,000 3
- - 2 20 --- 128 tons
US consumption for the same year and. the same purpose was 1060 tons.
There is only one known use for high-temperature, cobalt-
containing alloys by the Soviet aircraft industry: the VK-lA
engine.* Consumption for this purpose is estimated as follows 48/:
Year
7-Ietric Tons::
1953
400
1954
85o';H-~
1955
1,500
1956
1, 800
The production of cemented carbides in the Lc-?R is estimated
at 360 tons a year. 49/ The average cobslt content of these carbides
is estimated at 22 percent. 50/ Based on these figures, the total
The Soviet aircraft industry probably does not use cobalt in
the manufacture of reciprocating engines. 47/
?., This estimate does not include possible use of cobalt in the
new Soviet bombers.
1954-56 estimates are based on the V'=-1.x'1 production at capacity
operation.
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estimate for this category is 79 tons a year. US consumption for
the same purpose was 276 tons in 1952 and 163 tons in 1953.
Consumption data for other uses are totally lacking, and
even US analogy would be meaningless. In the US these other varied
uses accounted for 25 percent of the total in 1953.
Soviet exports of cobalt to the Satellites are estimated at
100 tons in 1953. The remainder of the 300-ton Satellite require-
ment is balanced by the estimated 200 tons imported from the West. 51/
Total estimated consumption of cobalt produced by the Bloc
in 1953, then, is,, tons. On the basis of estimated production
of 1,800 tons in 1953, the USSR would appear to have much more than
enough cobalt for current needs. Every other indication, however,
is to the contrary.
It is possible that the estimate of production in 1953 is
somewhat high. The average nickel-cobalt ratio given in Table 1-,
is 21:1, whereas a Soviet book on cobalt lists it as 25-50:1. 52/
It is possible that this Soviet figure failed to take into considera-
tion the Norilsk deposit (Economic Region XI), where, although the
amount of cobalt per ton of ore is small, the cobalt-nickel ratio
is much higher than'the average for the rest of the USSR. In
Table 2',, the ratio of nickel to cobalt is 27:1 because of the 1
percent residual in the nickel.
On the other hand, consumption by the Soviet aircraft
industry may be higher than indicated. Production of the V;'-1A
engine covers only one use of cobalt by the aircraft industry,
and there may be others. In 1953, US consumption of high-temperature
alloys was 2,400 tons, 53/ or 6 times the estimate for the USSR,.
Py 1955, unless adequate substitutes are found, it is estimated that
VT'-lA production will. absorb 75 percent of the .Soviet supply of
cobalt.
It is also possible that the estimates ;riven for supply and
demand are close to the actual figures. In such a case, there is
only one conclusion: that the USSR is stockpiling 500 tons to 1,000
tons of cobalt a year, out of a production of approximately 2,000
P. 9,aove .
P. 11, above.
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tons. In corina.rison, the US consumes only about half of the cobalt
it imports each year.
I17ithout a substantial stockpile of cobalt the USSR would be
severe]., handicapped by lack of cobalt by 1956, and before that time
in the event of war. During the first year of a war, U.S consumption
would be expected to increase threefold over present consumption. 54/
P. Satellites.
..ost information concerning the consumption of cobalt in the
Satellites was obtained as secondary information listed in trade
documents.
1. Fast Germany.
The largest use of cobalt in East Germany is in the
iron and steel industry. Estimated requirements for 1953 were
25.3 tons. 55/ About one-fifth of this amount is used at Stahl and
'Talzwer':, Crandenburg, for producing high-speed cutting alloys con-
taining 56 percent cobalt. 56/
Cobalt oxide has been listed as a bottleneck by the
chemical industry, 57/ and " ovar,":;- by the electronics industry.
Planned requirement of the East German Secretariat for Chemistry
(7)H 7) for the second half of 1953 was 12.728 tons of cobalt oxide,
equivalent to about 4 or 5 tons of metal.
The 1954 Economic Plan for 7,iauid :ru