DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES BY ECONOMIC SECTOR 1951-55

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000800080004-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 5, 2002
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: February 21, 1955
• Content Type: IR

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PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES
BY ECONOMIC SECTOR
1951-55
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
CIA/RR PR-101
21 February 1955
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS" 793 AND 79)+, THE
TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
CONFIDENTIAL
DOCUMENTNG.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. C]
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO:
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DATE:f_ 2 FIEVIEWER; 006514
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FOREWORD
Modifications of Soviet production plans since the death of Stalin
have caused changes in the distribution of the working force, particu-
larly in the direction of expanding employment in agriculture and
consumer goods industries. The figures presented in this report are
the result of several calculations designed to bring earlier figures
down to date and refine the occupational distribution.
Figures for the grand total of workers and employees, as well
as the estimates of the number of those employed in industry and in
education and health, are comparatively firm down to 1 January 1955
because periodic Soviet announcements either quote these figures
directly or state percentages of increase over figures for previous
perio.s from which 1955 estimates can be accurately computed. The
breakdowns of employment~in state agriculture and of employment in
the subcategories within industry and in the service occupations
are subject to greater error.
The original effort by CIA to refine these categories was
published in April 1952 (CIA/HR PR-14, The Distribution of Workers
in the USSR). In this report the initial projection to 1951 of
employment as reported in the 1941 Plan was undertaken. This
publication, in common with the 1941 Plan, suffered because the
reporting of number of workers was by ministries rather than by
employment in the production of specific products. In addition,
the total employment in industry was only partially distributed,
leaving a residual which was composed of employees in the adminis-
trative organs of government, the concealed defense industries,
and some small miscellaneous categories.
In the following year, further extension and refinement of the
estimates were facilitated by a stul-,q the early operations of
the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) and by'"a,nanalysis of ancillary
reports. The results were included in the materials contributed
to NIP, 65 and published separately in May 1953 (CI/RR PR-32,
Postwar Trends in Manpower in the USSR and European Satellites).
These estimates were subject to the same weaknesses as the 1951
analysis, although to a lesser degree.
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corogWN#iaL
Further refinement of the estimates made during 1953 was made
possible by additional announcements of p1.9p fulfillments and by
extensive additional research in which considerable progress was made
in associating employment with specific groups of products rather than
with ministerial administration. The range of products analyzed in
this study was not complete, and gaps in the information remained. At
the same time, the composition of the agricultural labor force was
analyzed more closely, making it possible to secure a better estimate
of employment in state agriculture. Finally, the relation between
production and productivity data was reviewed in CIA/RR PR-68o The
revisions made as a'result of these studies and an analysis of the
newly emerging trends in expansion of the production 'of consumer gods
are presented in this report.
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CONTENTS
Page
1. Total Employment in the National Economy . . . . 1
2. Employment in State Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3. Employment in Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
4. Employment in Service Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . 3
5? Changes in Distribution of Employment . . . . . . . . . 3
Appendixes
Appendix A. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Appendix B. Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 11
Tables
1. Estimated Employment of Soviet Workers and Employees
by Sector?As of. 1,:LTanua ?y 1951-55- 4
2. Comparison of 1951 and 1955 Est-imates of Employment
of Soviet Workers and Employees by Sector o . . . . . 8
1n
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=/M m4bi
(ORR Proje'lt 45.548)
DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES
BY ECONOMIC SECTOR*
1951?55
1. Total Employment in the National Economy.
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55), as originally announced,
provided for only a modest increase in workers and employees** through
1955. The number was to grow by 5.8 million, or 15 percent. l/***
During the first 4 years of the Plan, however, the increase was 7.8
million, or 20 percent. In other words,as shown in Table 1,**** the
whole expansion planned for 5 years was exceeded in 4 years.
The increase of 7.8 million in 4 years was possible because of an
increase of about 10 million in the population in the age group from
15 through 69 years of age, 2/ because of the transfers of large
numbers of amnestied forced laborers into the "free", labor force, and
because of the transfers of many collective farmers into the Machine
Tractor Stations (MTS's). J By utilization of these resources, the
USSR was able to maintain a rate of increase in workers and employees
greater than that planned and, at the same time, to keep a fairly
constant labor force on collective farms and continue to expand school
enrollment.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 1 January 1955.
** "Workers and employees" is a technical term used by the Soviet
government. It includes workers in heavy and light industries;
workers in state agriculture; and workers in such other nonindustrial
services as transportation, construction, trade, communications,
education, health, and art, as well'as employees of state and public
institutions. The term does not include workers on the collective
farms (kolkhozy), members of the armed services, workers in forced-
labor camps, or independent artisans.
*** Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed
in Appendix B.
**** Table 1 follows on p. 4,
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2. Employment in State Agriculture.
This change in labor policy is reflected in the distribution of
workers and employees in a number of ways. The most notable shift has
been into state agriculture, where there was an increase in employment
of 2.5 million from 1951 to 1955. Part of this increase was in accord
with original plans, but the major influence was the wholesale trans-
fer of collective farmers, not classified as workers and employees, to
the MTS's, where labor is so classified.' There were also transfers
from other industries into the MTS's. These trends are expected to
continue through 1955, when the program of opening new land should be
about complete.
3. Employment in Industry.
Employment in industry and mining,which was originally planned to
expand by 1.8 million, or 1.3.3 percent, L/ had, at the beginning of
1955, increased 1.9 million over 1951. The originally announced Five
Year Plan was predicated on a small increase in industrial employment,
13 percent, and a large increase in industrial productivity, 50 per-
cent (8.5 percent compounded annually). 5/ The reverse has taken
place. Increases in productivity have been slower than expected and
increases in employment faster. Part of the lag in productivity is
attributable to the shift of production in the direction of lower
valued consumer goods, 6/ and part is attributable to the dis-
organization following the death of Stalin and the difficulty in
adjusting unexpectedly large numbers of employees to new jobs.
Table 2* shows that within industry employment in the heavy-
industry category increased by only 12 percent as against an
increase in light industry of )+l percent. It is recognized that
the light-industry category is inadequately represented by the two
groups included (textiles and food processing) and that many
products of light manufacture are produced along with machines, but
the spread is considered indicative of the genuinely increased
interest in consumer goods. The machine-building industry maintained
a faster rate than heavy industry as a whole, but its increase was
offset by slower, increases in timber and mining.
Table 2 follows on p. 8
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By 1 January 1955, Soviet employment in mining and manufacturing
(heavy and light industry combined) was estimated to be 16,550,000.
As compared with a US figure of 18.2 million in similar categories in
1953 7/ It is probable that by 1 January 1956 Soviet employment in
mining and manufacturing will approach that of the US, although total
nonagricultural employment will be somewhat smaller in the USSR.
4. Employment in Service Occupations.
The 4-year increase in employment in the service occupations
(9 percent) was slower than the total worker and employee increase
(see Table 2), but the increases in the social services (health,
education, and art) amounted to over 18 percent, or nearly the same
increase as for the total workers and employees. Since the popu-
lation increased only by about 7 percent, it appears that a sub-
stantial advance in per capita expenditure for health and education
services was accomplished.
5. Changes in Distribution of Employment.
The net effect of the changes described in the preceding sections
is given in Table 2, which shows the changes in distribution between
broad sectors of the economy.
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Estimated Emplpyment of Soviet Workers and Employees
by Sector
As, of 1 January 1951-55
1951
1952
1953
1954
Total workers'and employees J
39,200
40,800
41,700
44,8oo
47,000
Industrial
13,700 9/
14,400 lo/
14,900 a/* 15;700 a/
16,550 a/
Total heavy industry b
19,600
10,000
l0,40o
10,500
10,750
Coal (and peat) c/
1,267
1,28o
1,317
1,355
11390
Electric power d7
330
330
330
330
330
Petroleum e/
189
195
208
224
20
Nonferrous metals f/
341
348
371
392
412
Ferrous metals g/
472
496
514
529
543
Chemicals h
330
3.33
339
346
352
Timber, 1 woodworking,
paper
1,203
1,295
.1,324
1,342
1,302
Machine construction
3,950
4,16o
4,400
4,655
4,888
Heavy industry
(not elsewhere classified) k/ 1;518
1563
1 597
l 327
l 293
Total.light industry J
4,loo
4,400
4,5o0
5,200
5,800
Textiles and allied m/
1,900
2,000-
2,100
2,200
2,450
Food and allied n
2,200
2,400
2,400
3,000
3,350
Nonindustrial o
25,600
26,400
26,800
29,100
30,450
State agriculture 23
2,900
3,000
3,100
4,500
5,400
Railroad transport
1,760
1,730
1,760
1,776
1,776
.
Water transport q/
640
673
706
741
778
Other transport.r~
3,150
3,180
3,210
3,240
3,280
Footnotes for Table 1 follow on p. 5.
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Estimated Employment of Sovi-et Morke-rs and Employees
by Sector
As of 1 January 1951-55.
(Continued)
Thousand Workers
1951 1952 19.53 19 1955
Voaindustriai' o/ (Continued)
3,925
4,000
4,075
4,075
4,100
Construction-, LS/
800
2
900
2
2,950
3,000
3,083
Trade`~
,
600
,
600
boo
600
600
counu.ications,I_//
3
200
3,400
3,465
3,b65
3,865
Education
,
1
500
1.550
1,600
1,700
1,800
Health
,
250
250
250
250
250
Art public :institutions -and services
State and p 4775
117
5
5,084
5,553
5,518
(not elsewhere classified)yJ ,
,
Estimated from index of employment derived from indexes of production andw s?70cpercent of
b. Based on-Mal-enkov announcement that employment in heavy industry in 1953
all industrial employment-1.2 This relationship was assumed to have been relatively stable in
1-951-52. Estimates for 195V--55-were based an increases planned in light industry subtracted from
total industry increment,
c, Estimate for 1952 was derived by calculating the number of production workers from estimates
of production and output per worker. 13 Employment figures were expanded to include non-
production workers by relationship in 1941 Plan. Estimates for 1951 and 1953-55 were calculated
from production and productivity increases announced in the respective annual reports of plan
fulfillment. (Probably includes some forced labor.)
d. Held level because of lack of basis for estimatingrate-crude oil extraction, which were
e. Estimate for 1952 calculated from employment figures
based on estimates of production and output per worker. 14 Estimates for 1951 and 1953-55 were
calculated from production and productivity increases announced in the-respective annual reports
of plan fulfillment. calculated from production
f. Employment for 1952 estimated. Figures for 1951 and 1953-55 were
and productivity increases announced in the respective annual reports of plan fulfillment.
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Estimated Employment of Soviet Workers and.Employees
by Sector
As of 1 January 1951-55
(Continued)
g. Estimate for 1952 was derived from estimates of production and output per worker. 15
Estimates for 1951 and 1953-55 were calculated from production and productivity increases
announced in the respective annual reports of plan fulfillment.
h. Employment for 1952 calculated from estimates of output per worker, 16 production index,
and 1941 Plan employment.
i. Logging employment calculated from estimates of output per worker on the basis of 283
days per annum, and the production of industrial round wood per annum. 18 (Probably includes
some forced labor).
j. Estimates- rer-e calculated from production and productivity increases announced in the
respective annual reports of plan fulfillment. 19/
k. Residual within the category of heavy industry. Probably includes 550,000 workers in the
construction materials industry (from 1941 Plan employment plus increases calculated from pro-
duction and productivity increases-announced in the annual reports of plan fulfillment 20/).
1. Residual, Total industry minus heavy industry.
m. Calculated from production and productivity increases announced in. the annual reports of
plan fulfillme-nt. 21
n. Calculated from production and productivity increases announced in the annual reports of
~
plan 1 fU11 u f it11,1.CfLejlt ? G nnG/l
o. Residual. Total workers and employees minus industry.
p. Estimated from output per worker and ton-kilometers. 24
q. Rate of increase of employment estimated at one-half the rate of increase of ton-kilometers. 25
r. Motor vehicle transport employment based on estimate of number of motor vehicles in 1951
(at 50 percent in operation) and service and driver ratios (4 per vehicle). 26
s. Calculated from production and productivity increases. announced in the annual reports of plan
fulfillment. &7/
t. Employment in 1954 announced. 28 Employment estimates for 1955 based on planned
increments. 29 Employment reported to be 2.5 million in 1948. 30 Employment for 1951-53
interpolated.
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Table 1
Estimated Employment of Sovie=t-Workers and Employees
by-Sector
As of 1 January 1951-55
(Continued)
u. No basis for estimating changes.
v. 1952--estimated. V1 Other years calculated from.employment increases announced in the
annual reports of plan fulfillment.
w. 1952 estimated . 32/ Other yeara.c.alculated from,emplo wentincreasesannounced'in the
annual reports of plan fulfillment.
X. 1952 estimated. 33 Other years calculated from. employment increases announced. in the
annual reports of plan fulfillment.
y. Residual.
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Table 2
Comparison of 1951 and 1955 Estimates of Employment
of Soviet Workers and Employees by Sector W
1951
1955
Change
Sector
Number
(Millions)
Percent
Number
(Millions)
Percent
in Percent
of Total
Heavy
industry
9.6
24
10.8
23
-1
Light
industry
4.1
10
5.8
12-.1
+2
State
agriculture
2.9
7
5.4
11.5
+4
Economic services 12.9
33
13.6
29.0
-4
Social services 5.0
13
5.9
12w6
Negligible
Other 4.8
12
5.5
11.7
Negligible!
a. Derived from Table 1.
b. As of 1 January.
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APPENDIX A
GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE
The Soviet sources cited are for the most part plan-fulfillment
announcements and official speeches. Some of these cited precise
figures and some gave increases in production and productivity from
which employment could be estimated with some accuracy. Inasmuch
as the 1941 Plan was the point of departure for calculating sub-
sequent increases, and inasmuch as this Plan was assumed with minor
adjustments to represent 1940, some errors have arisen.
Still other error is involved in the listing of figures as of
1 January each year. This date is convenient to use because
announcements of the plan resultA relate to that date. If., however,
the figures are derived from production-productivity increases, the
announcements presumably refer to a full year of operation. The
derived labor figure , ib'i .therefore, more of an annual average of
man-years rather than employment at any specific date. Estimates
for 1 January were derived by averaging two of the successive man-
year requirement figures. Thus seasonal fluctuations, part-time
employment, and unemployment during transfer periods are not
sufficiently accounted for.
Total employment in the critical defense industries is still
largely concealed in the "machine building" and "not elsewhere
classified" groups. At the present time, not enough information
is at hand to make it possible to break down the large groups
classed in '"Machine building." k
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The Soviet system of administering and reporting construction
activity is so complex that the estimate for employment in construction
is subject to a wide range of error. This uncertainty is further
aggravated by the lack of information as to how much construction
activity is carried on by slave labor rather than by workers and
employees.
As pointed out in the text, the manufacture of consumer goods is
i-iadequately represented by only two industries, textiles and food.
Information is lacking on which to base separate estimates for boots
and shoes, household furnishings, and household equipment.
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