PETROLEUM IN EAST GERMANY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 60
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 1999
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: August 29, 1955
• Content Type: IR

elease 1999/9-912,
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NOT R SABLE TO
FOR NATIONALS
119
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PETROLEUM IN EAST GERMANY
CIA/RR PR-121
29 August 1955
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
25X1 C^
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This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794,? the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
CONTINUED CONTROL
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PETROLEUM IN EAST GERMANY
CIA/RR PR-121
(ORR Project 25.473)
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
Office of Research and Reports
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
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CONTENTS
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
II. Prospecting, Exploration, and Production . . . . . . . . 4
III. Refining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
A. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
B. Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
C. Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
D. Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
IV. Civil Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
A. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
B. Non-Soviet Bloc Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
C. Intra-Soviet Bloc Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
VI. Supply-Demand Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
VII. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions . . . . . . 26
A. Capabilities 26
B. Vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
C. Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Appendixes
Appendix A. Petroleum Plants in East Germany . . . . . . . . 29
Appendix B. Distribution and Storage of Petroleum Products
in East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
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Page
Appendix C. Methodology . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Appendix D. Gaps in Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Appendix E. Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1. Estimated Production of Petroleum Products in East
Germany, 195 0 - 5 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. Estimated Civil Consumption of Liquid Fuels and
Lubricants in East Germany, by Major Consuming Sector,
1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3. Estimated Civil Consumption of Liquid Fuels and
Lubricants in East Germany, by Product, 1950-54 . . . . 11
4. Estimated Total Civil Consumption of Liquid Fuels and
Lubricants in East Germany, 1950-53 . . . . . . . . . . 12
5. Estimated Total East German Trade in Petroleum and
Petroleum Products, 1950-55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
6. Estimated East German Exports of Petroleum Products to
Non-Soviet Bloc Countries, 1950-55 . . . . . . . . . . . 17
7. Estimated East German Exports of Petroleum Products to
Soviet Bloc Countries, 1950-55 . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
8. Estimated East German Imports of Petroleum and Petroleum
Products from Soviet Bloc Countries, 1950-54 . . . . . . 23
9. Estimated Petroleum Supply-Demand Balance in East
Germany, 1950-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
10. Location and Estimated Annual Output Capacity of
Petroleum Plants in East Germany, 1954 . . . . . . . . . 30
0_V_n _'R_F_m
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11. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1950 .......................... 32
12. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1951 ..........................
34
13. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1952 .......................... 36
14. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1953 ..........................
38
15. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1954 .......................... 40
16. Major Inputs to Ten Petroleum Plants in East Germany,
1950-52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
17. Estimated Total Major Inputs to Petroleum Plants in East
Germany, 1950-52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
18. Identified Petroleum Product Storage Installations in
East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
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CIA/RR PR-121
(ORR Project 25.473) - - - _ - -
PETROLEUM IN EAST GERMANY*
Summary
East Germany is the third largest producer of petroleum products
in the Soviet Bloc.** Because East Germany lacks substantial natural
petroleum resources, production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural
gas liquids is negligible, and the petroleum industry is based pri-
marily on the costly synthetic production of petroleum products from
indigenous coal. East Germany supplies only a small part of the
total output of petroleum products in the Soviet Bloc, but its prod-
uction of aviation gasoline and jet fuel is significant in the
over-all petroleum economy of the Soviet Bloc.
The 28 plants in East Germany that manufacture petroleum products
have a total annual output capacity estimated to be about 2.4 million
metric tons.xxx In 1954 these plants produced about 2.3 million tons
of products comprising a relatively complete line of distillate and
residual fuels, lubricating oils, and miscellaneous products such as
solvents, greases, and waxes. Only the plant at Boehlen produced
aviation gasoline, and only the plants at Boehlen and Schwarzheide
produced jet fuel.
In 1954, about 640,000 tons of crude oil were imported -- largely
from the Soviet Zone of Austria -- and processed, principally at the
3 refineries at Luetzkendorf, Herrenleite, and, Leuna. The imported
crude oil provided for the manufacture of certain products which
cannot be economically produced by synthetic processes. The plants
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 1 June 1955.
** The Soviet Bloc includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East
Germany, Hungary, Poland, Rumania, and the USSR. For the purposes of
this report, the Soviet Zone of Austria is included as part of the
Bloc because during the time period covered by this report the produc-
tion of petroleum in the Soviet Zone of Austria was controlled entirely
by the USSR.
xxx Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
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at Boehlen, Leuna, Zeitz, and Schwarzheide produced about -two-thirds
of the total East German output of petroleum products in 195+.
The petroleum industry in East Germany appears capable of sup-
plying enough petroleum products not only to satisfy the domestic
demands of East Germany but also to provide substantial exports.
During the 1950-53 period, East Germany was a consistent exporter of
petroleum products to both Soviet Bloc and non-Bloc countries, and in
195+ total exports amounted to about 620,000 tons, 25 percent of the
total plant output. In addition, the industry provided considerable
quantities of aviation gasoline and jet fuel to the Soviet forces
based in East Germany.
No significant increases in plant output of petroleum products
from synthetic sources are anticipated in East Germany during the fore-
seeable future, but increases may accrue if additional quantities of
crude oil become available.
The most important factor in maintaining current levels of produc-
tion in the petroleum plants of East Germany is the condition of
plant equipment. The present state of disrepair of the plants -- the
result of neglect and local shortages of replacement equipment and
spare parts -- is the industry's most significant weakness. The
concentration of about 96 percent of the productive capacity in 12
plants and, more specifically, the concentration of about two-thirds
of the total output capacity in only 4 plants represent a potential
vulnerability.
Unusual activity in the rehabilitation or expansion of existing
petroleum plants or in the modification of plant operations to permit
increased production of aviation gasoline and. jet fuel might re-
flect the military intentions of East Germany or the Soviet Bloc.
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I. Introduction.
East Germany has an area of about 109,000 square kilometers J* and
an estimated population of about 17.9 million. It includes the terri-
tory of the five provinces of Brandenburg, Mecklenburg, Thuringia,
Saxony-Anhalt, and Saxony, and the Soviet Sector of the city of
Berlin. In 1952 these provinces were divided into 14 administrative
districts (Bezirke) and 211 counties. / The country has a well-de-
veloped transportation network of railroads and an extensive inland
waterway system composed of the Elbe and Oder Rivers and their con-
necting canals. J
The production of crude oil in Germany as a whole has never reached
significant proportions. This lack of native resources has made it
necessary for Germany to import most of its petroleum requirements.
When economic sanctions were applied to Germany before World War II,
the loss of imports forced Germany to resort to the costly expedient
of manufacturing petroleum products from local coal resources. This
is analogous to the Japanese attempt to offset the denial of imports
of petroleum by constructing the synthetic petroleum plants in Man-
churia. Experience in the US has shown that the production of petro-
leum products from raw materials other than natural crude oil is too
expensive to be commercially practicable, and it is probable that
Germany developed the synthetic plants as a matter of military
necessity.
There is insufficient evidence to indicate whether or not the
industry in East Germany at present requires heavy government subsi-
dies and is a liability to the East German economy. Continued
search for natural crude oil resources suggests that an attempt is
being made to provide a substitute for the costly synthetic processes.
The production of liquid fuels in East Germany is presently under
the administration of the Ministry for Heavy Industry and is closely
related to the chemical and coal industries. J East Germany has
the largest and most highly developed synthetic petroleum industry
in the world and is the third largest producer of petroleum products
in the Soviet Bloc. J The industry is largely dependent on indi-
genous brown coal resources. It is estimated that in 1952 the
industry consumed approximately 30 percent of the total brown coal
briquettes available in East Germany.
For serially numbered source references, see Appendix E.
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II. Prospecting, Exploration, and Production.
Although there are scattered reports concerning petroleum pro-
specting, test drilling, and production in East Germany during
recent years, the actual production of natural crude oil, natural
gas, and natural gas liquids is estimated to be negligible.
Significant activity related to petroleum prospecting, explor-
ation, and production in East Germany is limited to the following
locations:
1. Waddekath (near Salzwedel, 52?51' N - 11?09' E).
Information covering the period from 1952 through 1954 de-
scribes indications of large petroleum deposits, the availability of
new Soviet drilling tools, test drilling, and the daily yield of
about 30 tons of light oil from 2 wells. J
2. Langensalza (51006' N - 10?39' E).
Information covering the period from 1952 through 1954 de-
scribes continuation of gas borings which had been started before
World War II, the supply of natural gas to Langensalza from three
wells, and the use of Soviet equipment to conduct test drillings.
Some production of crude oil is reported in this area. 8
3. Falistein (west of Magdeburg, 52?10' N - 11040' E).
One report indicates production at a rate of about 350 tons
per year by 1953. The oil is produced from an old well drilled in
the 1930's and rehabilitated, probably in late 1952. Drilling oper-
ations in the area are continuing. J
1. Weimar (50?59' N - 11019' E).
The discovery of gas traces in April 1954 and the reported
daily production of 12 tons of crude oil from a single well consti-
tute the only known activity in this location. 10
There is available no information which would indicate that the
production of natural petroleum in East Germany will reach commercial
proportions in the foreseeable future.
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III. Refining.
A. General.
The total annual output capacity of the 28 plants in East
Germany that manufacture petroleum products is estimated to have
been approximately 2.4 million tons in 1954.* About 96 percent of
this total capacity is concentrated in 12 plants. The remaining
plants are engaged in the production of small quantities of such
miscellaneous products as grease, wax, and special gasoline; in the
production of lubricating oils; and in the reclamation of used
lubricating oils.
Boehlen is the only plant in East Germany which manufactures
aviation gasoline. Boehlen and Schwarzheide are the only installations
which manufacture jet fuel.
Because there is no production of crude oil in commercial
quantities in East Germany, brown coal is the principal raw material
used in the manufacture of petroleum products. Crude oil is im-
ported to supplement the raw material locally available and to pro-
vide for the manufacture of certain products that cannot be econom-
ically produced from synthetic sources. The Soviet Zone of Austria
is the principal supplier of crude oil. Total imports of crude oil
have increased from 120,000 tons in 1950 to an estimated 640,000 tons
in 1954.
The refineries at Luetzkendorf, Herrenleite, and Leuna process
most of the imported crude oil, and lesser quantities are processed
at Boehlen and possibly at Espenhain.
The two principal processes for the production of liquid
fuels in East Germany are the Bergius hydrogenation process and the
Fischer-Tropsch hydrocarbon synthesis process. The four plants
employing these processes produced approximately two-thirds of the
total 1954 output.
The hydrogenation process was first developed by a German
chemist, Professor Bergius, in 1913. The original process was de-
veloped and improved, and in 1926 the first commercial plant was built
at Leuna by the I.G. Farben industries. ll/ Three of the plants now
in operation in East Germany employ this process -- Leuna, Boehlen,
and Zeitz.
* See Appendix A.
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The Fischer-Tropsch process was first developed in 1926 by
the two men for whom it is named. The process produces liquid fuels
from gaseous mixtures of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. L2/ The only
plant employing this process in East Germany is the one at Schwarzheide.
In addition to these principal processes, there are several tar
distillation plants in East Germany. These plants produce liquid fuel
from tar produced by the carbonization of coal. 1
Production goals for liquid fuels during the First Five Year
Plan (1951-55) are generally announced for only two broad categories
of products, gasoline and diesel fuel. Aviation, motor, and special
gasolines probably are included in the goal for gasoline; and kerosine,
jet fuel, and diesel fuel may be included in the diesel fuel figure.
The announced goals are revised so frequently that it is impossible to
identify the final annual plan. Similarly, there is no official announce-
ment on plan fulfillment.
In December 1954 the Ministry for Heavy Industry announced that
the 1954 production of gasoline was approximately 750,000 tons, 101.6
percent of the 1954 goal, and production of diesel fuel was 725,000
tons, 94.4 percent of the goal.* 2,41 By comparison with the estimated
plant output, gasoline in this reference is interpreted as includ-
ing all types of gasoline, but the diesel fuel production is inter-
preted as excluding kerosine and jet fuel. The same announcement indi-
cated that the 1955 goals would be as follows**:
Gasoline . 79 percent of the 1954 output (1955 estimate --
600,000 tons).
Diesel fuel: 94 percent of the 1954 output (1955 estimate --
68o,000 tons).
Jet fuel . 139.4 percent of the 1954 output (1955 estimate
90,000 tons).
C. Production.
Estimated production of petroleum products in East Germany in
1950-54 is shown in Table 1.*** Because crude oil and other raw
* The quantities are at slight variance with estimates shown in
Table 1, p. 7, below.
** See Table 1, p. 7, below.
*** Table 1 follows on p. 7.
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Table 1
Estimated Production of Petroleum Products
in East Germany a/
1950-54
Product
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Aviation gasoline J
107
113
151
84
88
Motor gasoline
399
466
513
631
702
Jet fuel
4
50
102
87
66
Kerosine
8
6
6
7
17
Diesel fuel
408
480
536
670
729
Lubricating oils J
101
111
102
115
146
Residual fuel oils /
84
102
145
172
146
Other
167
185
249
314
334
Solvents 1Y
38
N.A.
44
20
33
Total ?
1,320
1,510
1,850
2,100
2,260
a. See Appendix A, Tables ll through 15, pp. 32-41, below.
Esti-
mated margin of error, plus or minus 10 percent.
b. Includes alkylate, a component of aviation gasoline.
c. Does not include the following quantities (in metric tons) of
reclaimed lubricating oils: 1950, 3,000; 1951, 4,000; 1952,
5,000; 1953, 7,000; and 1954, 6,000.
d. Includes kogasin, which is a mixture of kerosine, diesel fuel,
and wax and is used as fuel oil.
e. Includes miscellaneous products such as liquified petroleum
gas, wax and slack wax, electrode coke, greases, and candles.
f. The semifinished product is further processed into motor
gasoline, kerosine, and/or jet fuel.
g. Component data have been rounded to units of 1,000. Totals
are rounded to 10,000.
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materials are processed concurrently in some plants, there is no
practical means by which the product yield from imported natural crude
oil can be identified.
D. Quality.
In an effort to meet local demands for petroleum products of
suitable quality, as well as to render such products competitive in
foreign markets, a meeting of representatives of East German gasoline
and diesel fuel manufacturing plants was held at Leuna in 1953. 15
The representatives established standards of manufacture and agreed
to sacrifice profits, if necessary, to insure the maintenance of high-
quality petroleum products. There is a report 16 that Soviet stand-
ards for petroleum product specifications have been adopted for use in
East Germany.
Except for small quantities of specialty lubricating oils
that cannot be economically produced locally and are therefore im-
ported, the petroleum product output of the manufacturing plants in
East Germany now appears to satisfy the qualitative requirements of
the local civil and military consumers. It should be noted, however,
that the qualitative standards for most civil consumers of petroleum
in Europe are generally lower than those in the US.
IV. Civil Consumption.
Civil consumption of petroleum liquid fuels and lubricants in East
Germany increased from approximately 600,000 tons in 1950 to about
1,030,000 tons in 1951+?
The Central and Land governments which control the allocation of
petroleum products for public service operations as well as for private
consumers represent the largest consuming sector. Industry, agricul-
ture, and forestry account for about one-half of the civil consumption.
Estimated civil consumption of liquid fuels and lubricants, by
major consuming sectors, in 1950-51+ is shown in Table 2.* Available
information does not permit a breakdown of the major sectors.
* Table 2 follows on p. 9.
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Estimated civil consumption of liquid fuels and lubricants in East
Germany, by product, in 1950-54 is shown in Table 3.
Estimated Civil Consumption of Liquid Fuels and Lubricants
in East Germany, by Product a
1950-54
Product
1950
1951
1952
1953 b/
1954 /
Motor gasoline
286
286
306
354
405
Kerosine
9
18
14
18
21
Diesel fuel
220
268
275
343
393
Lubricating oils
42
82
160
135
155
Residual fuel oils
46
86
6o
50
57
Total J
600
740
820
900
1,030
a. See Table 2, footnote a, p. 9, above.
b. See Table 4, p. 12, below.
c. The 1954 figures are derived by applying the average annual in-
crease of the totals (14.5 percent) for the years 1950-53 to the
1953 figures.
d. Component data have been rounded to units of 1,000. Totals are
rounded to 10,000.
Estimated total civil consumption of liquid fuels and lubricants
in East Germany in 1950-53 is shown in Table 4.*
A. General.
Foreign trade in petroleum and petroleum products is admin-
istered in East Germany by the Intra-German and Foreign Trade Agency,
Chemical Division, of the Ministry for Foreign and Intra-German
Trade 19/ under the jurisdiction of the East German State Planning
Commission. 20
* Table 4 -follows on p. 12.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
In the 1950-52 period, exports exceeded imports. In 1953 and
1954 the pattern changed, and imports exceeded exports. Although ex-
ports of petroleum to other Soviet Bloc countries have remained fairly
constant, the imports in 1954 -- principally crude oil from the Soviet
Zone of Austria -- were slightly less than six times those of 1950.
Exports of petroleum products to non-Bloc countries -- consisting
principally of diesel fuel and motor gasoline, in that order -- have
increased significantly during 1950-54. Estimated total East German
trade in petroleum and petroleum products in 1950-55 is shown in
Table 5.
Table 5
Estimated Total East German Trade
in Petroleum and Petroleum Products a/
1950-55
Thousand Metric Tons
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
Exports J
Aviation gasoline J
81
119
147
94
95
Motor gasoline
112
98
109
137
234
Jet fuel
0
20
20
21
0
Diesel fuel
213
159
163
197
293
Lubricating oils
20
13
5
3
3
Total J
430
410
440
450
620
640
Imports f/
Crude oil
120
260
275
474
64o
Aviation gasoline
N.A.
N.A.
25
20
20
Lubricating oils
N.A.
N.A.
20
17
20
Residuals
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
6
6
Total
120
260
320
520
690
a. Estimated margin of error, plus or minus 10 percent.
b. Only total 1955 exports can be estimated.
c. See Tables 6 and 7, pp. 17 and 20, respectively, below.
d. Includes alkylate, a component of aviation gasoline.
e. Component data have been rounded to units of 1,000. Totals are
rounded to 10,000.
f. See Table 8, p. 23, below.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
S -E-C -R-E-T
B. Non-Soviet Bloc Trade.
West Germany and, to a lesser extent, Sweden have been the most
significant and consistent importers of East German fuels and lubri-
cants. Switzerland and the Netherlands began trading in petroleum
with East Germany in 1954.
There is no indication that foreign exchange is involved in
this type of East-West trade. Trade with West Germany is conducted
under the terms of the Inter-Zonal Agreement, and credits for the
petroleum trade are established in "clearing units" which are subse-
quently debited against similar units generated from trade in other
commodities and services. 25 Trade with other non-Soviet Bloc
countries is conducted on a barter basis. L6/ Estimated East German
exports of petroleum products to non:-Soviet Bloc countries in 1950-55
are shown in Table 6.*
Before 1954 the USSR was the principal importer of East German
petroleum products. In 1954, exports to Poland exceeded those to the
USSR. Gasoline, including aviation grade, continues to be the princi-
pal product exported to other Bloc countries. Estimated East German
exports of petroleum products to Soviet Bloc countries in 1950-55 are
shown in Table 7.**
The Soviet Zone of Austria provides almost all of the natural
crude oil imported by East Germany. In addition to the crude oil im-
ported as a supplemental raw material for East German refineries,
Hungary were also imported in 1954 for the same purpose 27 /Small
quantities of miscellaneous special lubricating oils co inu to be
imported from the USSR and Hungary. Estimated East German -imports
of petroleum products from Soviet Bloc countries in 1950-54 are
shown in Table 8.*
Table 6 follows on p. 17.
Table 7 follows on p. 20.
A topped crude oil similar to mazut, or residual fuel oil.
*XXX Table 8 follows on p. 23. Text continued on p. 25.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
VI. Supply-Demand Balance.
East Germany manufactured an exportable surplus of certain petro-
leum products in the years from 1950 through 1952. In 1953 and 1954
the total imports of crude oil and exports of petroleum products were
almost in balance. The estimated petroleum supply-demand balance in
East Germany in 1950-54 is shown in Table 9. The domestic demand in-
cludes aviation gasoline and jet fuel which are consumed by the Soviet
forces stationed in East Germany. The total domestic demand in 1954 is
estimated to be twice the demand in 1950, and the new supply of petro-
leum in 1954 represents an increase of approximately 75 percent over
1950.
Table 9
Estimated Petroleum Supply-Demand Balance in East Germany
1950-54
New supply
Domestic output a/
(includes yield from
quantity of imported
crude oil shown) b/
Imports of products b
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954
1,320 1,510 1,850 2,100 2,260
(120) (260) (275) (474) (640)
N.A. N.A. 45 43 46
Total J
1,320
12510
1,890
2,140
2,310
Demand
Exports of products b
430
410
440
450
620
Domestic d/
890
1,100
1,450
1,690
1,680
Total J
1,320
1,510
1,890
2,140
2,310
a. See Table 1, p. 7, above.
b. See Table 5, p. 15, above.
c. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of rounded data shown.
d. Total new supply less exports.
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VII. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and :Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
The petroleum industry in East Germany has been designed to
function on locally available raw materials and appears-to be rela-
tively self-sufficient. With the exception of small quantities of
specialty lubricants, the industry can supply, independent of imports,
the quantitative and qualitative domestic demands. The industry's
ability to manufacture high-quality aviation gasoline and allied com-
ponents and significant quantities of jet fuel makes East Germany an
important contributor to the petroleum economy of the Soviet Bloc.
The imported natural crude oil provides some of the specialty
lubricants which could not otherwise be economically produced from
synthetic sources and utilizes available refining capacity by supple-
menting indigenous raw materials. There is no evidence to indicate
that commercial quantities of natural crude oil will be produced in
East Germany in the foreseeable future.
It is conceivable that the specialty lubricants now imported
directly or produced from imported crude oil could be manufactured by
synthetic processes if necessary. It is unlikely that production of
petroleum products from synthetic sources will increase significantly
without extensive plant expansion and reconstruction. Refining facil-
ities are capable of processing additional quantities of natural crude
oil, however, and increased plant output could occur if additional
quantities of crude oil were to become available.
Although imports and exports of petroleum and petroleum prod-
ucts are presently about in balance, the rate of increase of imports
has been more rapid than the rate of increase of exports. A contin-
uation of this trend to the point where imports significantly exceed
exports and continue to do so would indicate an inability on the part of
the East German government to maintain its current self-sufficient
position with regard to petroleum.
In view of the fact that the East German petroleum industry was
designed to function independently on locally available raw materials
and facilities, its vulnerabilities are generally restricted to in-
trinsic shortcomings. The greatest immediate weakness of the industry
S-E-C-R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
S-E-C-R-E-T
lies in the results of lack of maintenance and repair of plant equipment.
Efforts to accomplish production goals have forced continuous opera-
tion of equipment and thus have precluded proper maintenance and repair.
Similarly, reported shortages of seamless steel pipe, boiler tubes,
welding rods, and spare parts limit the extent of repair and rehabili-
tation which could be effected. It is anticipated that plant failures
and shutdowns will continue as a result of these deficiencies. In
addition to these inherent weaknesses, the loss of electric power and
water, which are essential to the operation of the East German petro-
leum plants, represents a potential vulnerability.
About 65 percent of the total output capacity is concentrated
in 4 plants, and the denial of any or all of these plants would
seriously reduce the industry's ability to serve the East German economy.
C. Intentions.
Although there are few activities related to the petroleum
industry in East Germany which would reveal exclusively military in-
tentions, such intentions might be included in the results of any of
the following pursuits:
1. Augmenting or intensifying the degree of security surround-
ing, or efforts to conserve, electric power and fresh water resources
intended for use by the petroleum manufacturing plants.
2. Any precipitant effort to rehabilitate or expand existing
petroleum manufacturing plants.
3. Any activities directed toward an unusually large in-
crease in the output of aircraft fuels.
4. A significant decrease in the quantity of petroleum exports
and any increase in the quantity of military end-item petroleum im-
ports from non-Soviet Bloc countries.
5. Any persistent attempts to import petroleum or petroleum
products from non-Soviet Bloc countries.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX A
PETROLEUM PLANTS IN EAST GERMANY
1. Description.
The location and estimated output capacity of the petroleum plants
in East Germany in 1954 are shown in Table 10.x- Except as otherwise
indicated, the plants are subordinate to the Main Administration for
Liquid Fuels in the Production Area for Chemistry of the East German
Ministry for Heavy Industry. 46
2. Petroleum Product Output.
The estimated output of petroleum products in East Germany in
1950-54 is shown in Tables 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15.** In a few cases
the plant output exceeds the estimated plant capacity by small quan-
tities. Such discrepancies are considered to be within the estimated
margin of error of plus or minus 10 percent for plant output.
The category described as "Residuals and Others" includes such mis-
cellaneous products as liquefied petroleum gas, wax and slack wax,
electrode coke, greases, and candles.
3. Major Inputs.
There are scattered reports of the inputs of certain commodities
into various East German plants which manufacture petroleum products.
Although there have been few such reports in recent years, available
reports covering 1950, 1951, and 1952 provide information on the inputs
of electric power, water, labor, and investment for approximately 10
plants. Major inputs to these 10 petroleum plants in East Germany are
shown in Table 16. These plants manufacture about 50 percent of
the total output of petroleum products and are considered to include
types of plants representative of all the plants in East Germany.
Estimated total major inputs to petroleum plants in East Germany are
shown in Table 17.****
Table 10 follows on p. 30.
Tables 11-15 follow on pp. 32-41.
Table 16 follows on p. 42.
Table 17 follows on p. 43-
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/26 : CIA-RDP79-01093A000900150006-8
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