THE OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES AND COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 59
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 31, 1955
• Content Type: IR

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NOT. REL,~/k~ABIE TO
ti w
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
THE OUTPUT
OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IN THE .EUROPEAN .SATELLITES
AND COMMUNIST CHINA
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
`NOTE
:~~w F~?REI
.~ ,...
nvrvAtS
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zYARNINC3
1:'iwis materiaa-contain: information afpecting
they Ns.tional Defense of the [Jnited States
~G*i.thin the ~r~e~ning of .-.:the .espionage laws,
'ltitle Z8; 'USC, "Secs... 793 and :'794, the trans- ,
mission. or rerrelation of which 1n any manner
to an unautharfzed person is prahibitect by law.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
PROVISIONAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
THE OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IN THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES AND COMMUNIST CHINA
CIA~RR PR-125
(ORR Project 25.675)
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
FOREWORD
This report is a coordinated effort to present agreed postwar
statistics on the output of refined petroleum products in the Euro-
pean Satellites and Communist China. Because of existing gaps in
intelligence, these postwar estimates are provisional. As the gaps
are filled, revised estimates will be developed.
To provide for comparative evaluation, this report gives prewar
data for China and all of the European Satellites except East Germany
and Poland. Boundary changes have made prewar data on those two
countries of little value as bases for comparison.
During the period covered by this report the production of petro-
leum in Austria was confined to the Soviet Zone and was controlled
by Soviet officials. For that reason, the output of petroleum prod-
ucts in the Soviet Zone of Austria is considered as output by a
European Satellite.
Available data on the consumption of petroleum products in the
European Satellites and Communist China are inadequate to provide a
base for estimating output of petroleum products. The estimates of
output, therefore, are based on the quantities and qualities of crude
oil available for refining, on types of refining facilities, on re-
finery yield data, and on the production of synthetic petroleum
products.
Although North Korea is not included in the scope of this report,
the available data on the output of petroleum products by North
Korean plants are given. Although these data are very tenuous, they
serve to supplement the information on Communist China.
This report has been coordinated with AFOIN and the EIC Sub-
committee on Petroleum.
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CONTENTS
Summary
I. Introduction
II. Estimated Output
1
5
6
A. Rumania
6
B . East Germany
6
C. Soviet Zone of Austria
10
D . Hungary
10
E. Czechoslovakia .
12
F . Poland
15
G. Albania
16
H. Bulgaria
17
I. China
18
J. North Korea .
20
III. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions
21
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology
23
Appendix B. Gaps in Intelligence
~+3
Appendix C. Source References
45
1. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in the European
Satellites, 1936 and 19+6-5~+
2
2. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in the European
Satellites, by Type of Product, 1936 and 19+6-5~+
3
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3? Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Rumania,
1931-39 -and 1946-54
7
4. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany,
1846-54
9
5. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in the Soviet
Zone of Austria, 1932-37 and 1946-54
11
6. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Hungary,
13
1933-38 and 1g46-54 .
7. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Czechoslovakia,
14
1932-36 and 1947-54 .
8. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Poland,
16
1946-54 .
g. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Albania,
1952-54
17
10. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Bulgaria,
18
1935 -38
11. Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in China, 1931-37
and 1946-54
1
9
12. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in
24
Rumania, 1948-54 .
13. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in the
26
Soviet Zone of Austria, 1948-54
14. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in
Hungary, 1948-54
30
' 15. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks and
Output of Synthetic Oil Products and Benzol in
Czechoslovakia, 1948-54
31
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16. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks and
Output of Synthetic Oil Products, Benzol, and Natural
Gas Liquids in Poland, 1948-54 37
17. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in
Albania, 1947-54 .
18. Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in
China, 1946-54 41
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CIA~RR PR-125 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 25.6
5)
THE OUTPUT OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IN THE EUROPEAN SATELLITES AND COMM[JNIST CHINA
1}~e output of refined petroleum products in the European
Satellites and Communist China has increased substantially during
-the postwar years. Refining capacity has kept pace with the in-
crease in the production of crude oil in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, and
refinery output has been adequate, in general, to meet the require-
ments of the expanding petroleum economy of the Bloc.
The output of petroleum products in the European Satellites has
increased from 6.3 million metric tons~~ in 1948 to about 15.4
million tons in 1954. This 7-year increase of about 140 percent is
equivalent to an annual growth rate of slightly more than 16 percent.
In 1954 the output of petroleum products in the European Satellites
was about 24 percent of the total output of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
Of the total 1954 output of petroleum products in the European
Satellites, about 8.( million tons, almost 60 percent, were produced
by Rumania. East Germany produced about 15 percent of the total;
the Soviet Zone of Austria, about 10 percent; and Hungary, about 8
percent. Czechoslovakia and Poland produced most of the remainder,
in about equal portions, and Albania and Bulgaria produced negligible
quantities. The estimated output of petroleum products in the Euro-
pean Satellites in 1936 and 1946-54 is shown in Table 1.-~-~
During the 1948-54 period the output of petroleum residuals in
the European Satellites increased at a greater rate (about 180 per-
cent in the '7-year period) than did that of other petroleum products.
The output of diesel fuel increased slightly more than 140 percent
during the period, and the output of gasoline, kerosine, and lubri-
cating oil had a considerably slower rate of growth. The estimated
output of petroleum products in the European Satellites, by type of
product, in 1936 and 1946-54 is shown in Table 2.-~~~~-
~ The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 1 September 1955?
~~ Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
-~~~ Table 1 follows on p. 2.
~~~~ Table 2 follows on p. 3.
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Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in the European Satellites
1,936 and 1g46-54
Soviet Zone
Year
Rumania
East Germany
of Austria
Hungary
Czechoslovakia
Poland
Albania
Bulgaria
Total
1936
7,886
b/
125
c/
lg3 ~
283 a/
b/
0
23
8,510
1946
3,840
350 c/
620
620
N.A.
120
N.A.
0
5,600
1847
3,240
570 ~
670
4'70
280 e/
170
N.A.
0
5,400
1948
3,goo
620 c/
690
450
430
220
N.A.
0
6,300
1949
4,200
880
870
450
500
240
N.A.
0
7,100
1950
4,800
1,32c
940
460
570
260
N.A.
0
8,300
1951
5,goo
1,510
1,100
650
770
400
N.A.
0
10,300
1952
7,000
1,850
1,300
850
840
450
40
0
12,300
1953
7, goo
2,100
1,400
1,000
940
630
40
0
14,100
1954
8,700
2,260
1,500
1,300
810
840
4o
N.A.
15,400
a. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sum of the rounded data shown.
b. Data for East Germany and Poland are not included. On the basis of prewar boundaries, production in Germany
was 2,251,000 tons and in Poland, 450,000 tons. 1/~ If these data were included, the total would be 11,211,000
tons. Prewar data for Germany include the entire country; information cannot be isolated for East Germany alone.
c. Excludes residual products.
d. Includes only limited amounts of residuals (wax).
e. Includes.. only output from synthetic oil products and benzol added as motor gasoline blending component; data
far output of natural petroleum products are not available.
~ For serially numbered source references, see Appendix C.
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Z~h.e output of refined petroleum products in Communist China in-
creased from x+00,000 tons in 1951 to about 715,000 tons in 195-?
Increased production of petroleum residuals and kerosine accounted
for a major part of the 100-percent growth. Because of the lack of
major sources of crude oil in Communist China, domestic output of
petroleum products provides only about one-third of the total require-
ments of the country. The remainder is imported, primarily from
other countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
The postwar rate of expansion of petroleum refining capacity in
the European Satellites and Communist China and the plans for the
development of the refining industries indicate that the output of re-
fined petroleum products in these areas will continue to keep pace
with the growth of the petroleum economy of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
Except in Rumania,- however, the output of petroleum products is
dependent upon imports of stocks for processing. To the extent that
transportation of these imports is subject to curtailment or stoppage,
the petroleum refining industries of the European Satellites and
Communist China are vulnerable,-but because trade in petroleum charge
stocks is largely intra-Sino-Soviet Bloc, the vulnerability is rela-
tively slight.
Increased emphasis on imports and stockpiling of jet fuel and
aviation gasoline or major increases in the output of those products
at the expense of illuminating .kerosine and motor gasoline might
indicate preparations for military activity. The present patterns of
trade, stockpiling, and refinery yield in the European Satellites
and Communist China, however, do not indicate such preparations.
~ It is assumed that with-the signing of the Austrian peace treaty
the Soviet Zone of Austria ceased to exist and can no longer be con-
sidered as a major factor in the petroleum economy of the Sino-Soviet
Bloc.
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This report presents an estimate of the output of refined petroleum
products in the European Satellites and Communist China in the postwar
years where bases for estimation are available. Adequate data on the
consumption of petroleum products are not available for any of these
countries. Hence this preliminary effort to establish yield patterns
for petroleum refineries is based on the quantity and quality of crude
oil available for refining, synthetic oil operations, the general type
of equipment available for refining, and immediate postwar refining
yields published in official statistics. Each country is considered as
an entity, and yields are obtained independently. Data covering prewar
years are given for purposes of comparison where applicable.
Crude oil storage is not presented as such, because there is no re-
liable information to indicate the percentage to be included. To intro-
duce this factor would involve an error of 2 to 3 percent in the figures,
which already contain an error of minus 5 percent to plus ZO percent,
The increment to the estimates, however, has been considered.
The output of refined products is presented in five categories
throughout this report, as follows: gasoline, kerosine, diesel fuel,
lubricating oil, and residuals and others. The yield of natural gas
liquids has been included in total products for Poland alone, based on
estimates of postwar production 3~ and projection through 1954. Post-
war data on natural gas liquids are not quantitatively available for
Rumania. Preliminary estimates of production of natural gas liquids
for Hungary are available, but no consumption or distribution patterns
have been determined, so these data have not been incorporated in this
report.
Data for 1946 and 194` in many instances were from official publi-
cations of the countries concerned. Definite gaps appear, however, in
the output figures for these 2 years for East Germany, Czechoslovakia,
and China.
For methodology, see Appendix A.
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II. Estimated Output.
The output of .petroleum products by Rumanian refineries reached
near-peak levels in 1936 but had begun to decrease before World War II,
when much of the refining capacity was severely damaged by Allied
bombing attacks. After the war the Western powers assisted in restoring
this capacity to about one-half of the 1936 rate.- No official statis-
tics-are available after 1947, but estimates of production of crude oil
show accelerated increase after 1950. ~ In 1953 total output approxi-
mated that of 1936, although the yield pattern varied. A marked increase
in the yield of gasoline and lubricating oil is noted in 1953 as com-
pared to 1936, with somewhat smaller decreases in kerosine, diesel fuel,
and residuals. Planned goals for 1955 Provide for a 30-percent increase
in gasoline yield over 1950. ~ The estimated output of petroleum
products in Rumania during 1931-39 and 1946-54 is shown in Table 3.~
The yield of petroleum products from Rumanian refineries has
represented approximately 60 percent of the total production of the
European Satellites during 1948-54. This fact indicates the signifi-
cance of the Rumanian position in the petroleum economy of the European
Satellites.
Although previous estimates of refinery capacity in the Soviet
Bloc had indicated insufficient capacity to produce the total products
estimated for 1953 and 1954, a recent revision of estimates on Ru-
manian refining capacity ~ presents figures for 1953 and 1954 which
are in line with the estimates of output of petroleum products given
in this report. Refinery expansion planned and under way in Rumania,
however, makes necessary a revision of estimates of refining capacity.
The 195.5 Plan calls for an increase in refining capacity of 226 per-
cent over 1950, ~ but there are no firm data available to quantify
these estimates.
B. East Germany.
Because East Germany has no known indigenous supply of crude
oil, it must depend primarily upon its highly developed synthetic oil
industry to fill its requirements for petroleum products. Synthetic
oil products are obtained by the processing of coal by various
~ Table 3 follows on p. 7.
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hydrogenation and tar distillation processes. Some crude oil is also
imported for the production of lubricating oils, and increasing
amounts of crude oil are being processed at the synthetic oil instal-
lations because of the shortage of coal tar for hydrogenation.
The estimated output of petroleum products in East Germany in
1946-54 is shown in Table 4. These estimates were prepared for a re-
port on the petroleum industry of East Germany. 16 earlier postwar
data are incomplete and are so indicated in the table. Prewar data are
not presented because there is no valid basis for comparison in view
of boundary changes.
Table 4
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in East Germany
1946-54
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel
Lubricating
Oil
Residuals
and Others
Total J
1946 ~
180
N.A.
150
20
N.A.
350
1947 ~ cJ
310
N.A.
220
40
N.A.
570
1948 ~ d/
310
N.A.
260
50
N.A.
620
1949 ~
320
l0
300
50
200
880
1950 e/
480
10
410
100
320
1,320
1951 ~
550
60
48o
ilo
320
1,510
1952 of
630
ll0
540
loo
470
1,850
1953 J
700
90
670
120
520
2,100
1954 ~
770
80
730
150
530
2,260
a. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
b . 1'T
c.
d. 19
e. 20
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The output of petroleum products in East Germany has increased
from about 10 percent of total output of the European Satellites in
1948 to about 15 percent in 1954. The most significant increases in
output have occurred in the categories of gasoline and diesel fuel.
Plans for the expansion of facilities and improved processing
methods seem to insure a continued increase in East German output of
petroleum products.
C. Soviet Zone of Austria.
Although the Soviet Zone of Austria is not generally included
in estimates for the Soviet Bloc, it ranks third in the output of
petroleum products among the European Satellites and is an important
exporter of crude oil to its Satellite neighbors. It contributed
approximately 9 to 12 percent of the total output of petroleum products
by the European Satellites in 1948-54, with the percentage decreasing
in recent years.
The actual increase in output of petroleum products between
1948 and 1954 was approximately 120 .percent. Major increases occurred
in the output of gasoline, diesel fuel, and residuals, while the yield
of kerosine declined.
The estimated output of petroleum products in the Soviet Zone
of Austria in 1932-37 and 1946-54 is shown in Table 5.~- Postwar esti-
mates are based on yield patterns for refined petroleum products
established for 1948 and 1953, which were interpolated for the inter-
vening years.
D. Hungary.
The petroleum industry in Hungary was not an important factor
in the petroleum economy of the European Satellites until 1952, at
which time crude oil imports increased markedly. This was followed
by a significant rise in indigenous production of crude oil in 1953?
In 195+ a continued increase in Hungarian production of crude oil was
reported, and imports were maintained at the high level of 1952. Thus
there has been considerable increase in the output of petroleum products
and a trend toward self-sufficiency in meeting domestic demands.
~ Table 5 follows on p. 11.
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Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in the Soviet Zone of Austria
1932-37 and 1946-54
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel
Lubricating
Oil
Residuals
and Others
Total a/
1932 b/
68
34
14
N.A.
N.A.
116
4
1933 c/
81
41
18
N.A.
N.A.
1
0
1934 c/
So
36
lg
N.A.
N.A.
135
124
1935 d
77
36
11
N.A.
N.A.
1936 ~
80
38
7
N.A.
N.A.
125
8
21
5
N.A.
N.A.
5
146 f
40
60
130
40
350
620
184.7 ~
40
70
140
50
370
670
1948 g/
70
80
190
50
300
690
1949 ~
go
100
240
70
370
870
1950 ~
i2o
100
250
70
400
940
1951 ~
160
90
300
60
500
1,100
1952 f/
180
80
35o
So
630
1,300
4
1953 f/
230
50
380
80
700
00
1,
1954 f/
240
50
390
80
710
1,500
a. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
b . 21
c. 22/
d. 23
e.
f. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section 4.
g? 25/
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The estimated output of petroleum products in Hungary in 1954
exceeds the latest estimate of refining capacity. This estimate,
however, was made in 1953, 26 and actual capacity may, in the mean-
time, have exceeded this estimate. Some crude oil of inferior quality
is processed at various refineries, necessitating process modifica-
tions which will result in greater output of petroleum products.
The estimated output of petroleum products in Hungary in 1933-38
and 1946-54 is shown in Table 6.* These data reveal a sizable increase
in production of diesel fuel and residuals, with a somewhat smaller
increase in the yield of gasoline.
The Hungarian contribution to the total output of petroleum
products by the European Satellites decreased from approximately 7 per-
cent in 1948 to less than 6 percent in 1950, but subsequently in-
creased again to more than 8 percent in 1954. Internal output of
these products increased by approximately 190 percent during 1948-54.
E. Czechoslovakia.
Czechoslovakia is deficient in petroleum and depends largely
upon its synthetic oil industry and upon imports of crude oil and
residuals to fill most of its requirements for petroleum products.
No data were available on the output of petroleum products in
1946 and 1947, so that figures for both Czechoslovakia and the Euro-
pean Satellites as a whole are incomplete for these 2 years. Figures
on Czechoslovak production from synthetic oil operations in 1947 were
available 27~ and are shown in the estimated output for that year.
The output of refined petroleum products from the processing
of crude oil is estimated by applying the yield pattern shown in
the 1949 Plan to figures on imports of crude oil and residuals. 28
With these data the straight run yields are postulated and the total
output of refined products are estimated.
The estimated output of petroleum products in Czechoslovakia
in 1932-36 and 1947-54 is shown in Table 7.*~
~- Table follows on p. 13.
~-~ Table 7 follows on p . 14.
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Table 6
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Hungary
1933-38 and 1g46-54
Thousand Metric Tons
Diesel
Lubricating
Residuals
9/
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Fuel
Oil
and Others
Total ~/
1933 b/
46
55
23 c/
8
4 d/
136
1934 b/
44
57
27 ~/
9
6 ~
143
1935 J
56
60
44 c/
13
6 d/
179
1936 e/
6o
b7
31
6
29 d/
193
193 f/
66
67
81 c/
13
8 d/
235
1938 f/
77
71
79 ~/
14
3 a/
244
1846 g/
210
120
100
N.A.
200
620
1g4~ g/
160
100
g0
N.A.
120
470
1948 n/
150
90
80
l0
120
450
1949 ~
150
8o
go
10
120
450
1950 ~
150
80
100
l0
120
460
1951 h/
170
loo
140
20
220
650
1952 ~
190
110
Igo
40
330
850
1953 h/
220
100
260
40
400
l,ooo
1954 ~
270
140
320
50
490
1,300
a. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
b. 29
c. Includes fuel oil.
d. Data incomplete; covers only production of wax.
e. 30/
f . 31/
~? 32
h. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section 5.
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Table 7
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Czechoslovakia
1932-36 and 1g47-54
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel
Lubricating
Oil
Residuals
and Others
Total a/
1932 b/
206
71
27
28
1 J
333
1933 a/
156
70
25
23
1 c/
275
1934 ~
132
67
32
27
4 J
262
1935 e/
136
69
30
25
5 c/
265
1936 ~
151
73
30
24
5 c/
283
lg4'7 ~ g/
140 h/
20 h/
70 ~
50
N.A.
280
1g48 J
.180 ~/
40
120
60
40
430
lg4g i/
170 ~/
30
120
90
80
500
195o i/
lgo ~/
40
160
90
loo
570
1951 i/
220 j/
60
210
120
160
770
1952 J
230 ~
60
220-
160
160
840
1953 i/
25o j/
60
240
200
lgo
goo
1954 if
260 ~
60
220
150
ll0
810
a. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
b ? 33/
c. Data incomplete; covers only production of wax.
d. 34/
f . 35/
g? 37
h. Includes output of synthetic oil production and motor benzol only.
Data are not available on output of petroleum products from crude oil.
i. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section 6.
j. Includes refined benzol ,used as a blending agent for motor
gasoline.
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Refined benzol is used as a blending agent in motor gasoline
in Czechoslovakia and the estimated amount added to the estimated
yield of gasoline.
The yield of petroleum products in Czechoslovakia amounts to
about 5 percent of the total production of the European Satellites. It
is not anticipated that Czechoslovakia will increase in importance in
this field because of its dependence upon imports and the limited pos-
sibilities for the development of indigenous production of crude oil.
F. Poland.
Poland is also limited in possibilities for the expansion of
crude oil production and consequently must depend largely upon imports
of crude oil and of petroleum products to satisfy civil demands. The
synthetic oil industry -- which was so prominent during World War II
under Germany -- was incapacitated, partly by Allied bombing and
partly by Soviet dismantling immediately after the war. This indus-
try is gradually being rebuilt, however, and became an increasingly
important source of distillate fuels in Poland beginning in 195-.
Data on Polish refineries were available for 1946 and 194'7, and
the yield pattern thus obtained was projected through 1950. After
this date, imports of crude oil became significant, and the quality
and quantity of these imports were taken into consideration in estimat-
ing the output of refined petroleum products through 1954. Poland
also utilizes refined benzol as a blending agent in motor gasoline,
and an estimate of this quantity is included in the estimated output
of gasoline.
The estimated output of petroleum products in Poland in 1946-54
is shown in Table 8.~~- From 1948 to 1954, total output increased ap-
proximately 280 percent. Because of the expansion of the synthetic
oil phase of the refining industry, it is anticipated that Poland will
continue to contribute at least 5 percent of the total output of petro-
leum products by the European Satellites.
~ See Methdology, Appendix A.
~ Table 8 follows on p. 16.
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Table 8
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Poland
1946-54
~
Diesel
Lubricating-
Residuals
and
,
~
Year
,,
Gasoline a1
Kerosine
Fuel
Oil
Others
,
Total J
1946 c/
50
20
30
20
10
120
1947 c/
70
30
30
40
l0
170
1948 ~
90
30
40
40
30
220
1949 ~
loo
30
40
30
40
240
1950 ~
ll0
30
50
30
40
260
1951 ~
13o
So
80
40
ll0
400
1952 ~
140
~0
90
50
120
450
1953 ~
170
70
130
60
190
630
1954 ~
230
90
180
60
280
840
a. Includes natural gas liquids ~ and benzol used as a blending agent
for motor gasoline.
b. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
c. 39
d. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section 7.
G. Albania.
There were no petroleum refineries in Albania before World
War II. After the war, some small refineries were installed to sat-
isfy local needs, but before 1952 the output is believed to have been
insignificant on the basis of the crude oil available for refining.
Beginning in 1952, however, production of indigenous crude oil and
natural bitumen increased and exceeded the available capacity for re-
fining. The estimated output of petroleum products in Albania in
1952-54 is shown in Table 9.~- Total output during 1952-54 is esti-
mated at about 40,000 tons per year.
Table 9 follows on p. 17.
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Table 9
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Albania a~
1952-5~+
e
li
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel
Lubricating
Oil
Residuals
and Others
Total
Year
n
Gaso
1952
7
~-
9
2
20
40
~
195 3
7
~+
9
2
20
+o
~
195
7
4
9
2
20
+o
a. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section All estimates have
been rounded to one significant figure. Crude oil available for
refining is in excess of refining capacity. The output reflects
approximate crude charge capacity of 50,000 tons per year.
A new refinery was under construction in Albania and should
have been in operation in early 1955? ~0 The estimated capacity of
150,000 tons per year should establish Albania as an exporter of
petroleum products as well as of crude oil. The output of petroleum
products in Albania is unimportant in the petroleum economy of the
entire Satellite area, however, and there is little possibility that
its significance will increase.
H. Bulgaria.
The estimated output of petroleum products in Bulgaria in
1935-38 is shown in Table 10.x' Until 1954, Bulgaria contributed
nothing to the postwar output of refined petroleum products in the
European Satellites. Production of crude oil was begun in late
1953, however, and Bulgaria may become an exporter of this raw ma-
terial. There were some limited refining facilities during World
War II (appro.ximately 25,000 tons per year at Ruse), but no reliable
information is available concerning their operation in any postwar
year. With the increase in production of crude oil, however, it is
~ Table 10 follows on p. 18.
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Table 10 '
Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in Bulgaria
1935-38
Thousand Metric Tons
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel Lubricating
F1ze1 Oil
Residuals
and Others
Total
.
1935 J
3
2
2 0
7
14
1936 ~
~
7
3 0
9
23
1937 ~
~
5
3 0
1938 ~
6
8
~+ 0
8
26
probable that these facilities will again be placed in operation. The
construction of new refineries may also be undertaken to help Bulgaria
attain some degree of self-sufficiency in meeting its requirements
for petroleum products.
I. China.
The estimated output of petroleum products in China in 1931-
37 and 1946-54 is shown in Table 11.-~
Information on the postwar output of the petroleum industry is
extremely limited, and estimates have been computed on the basis of
quality evaluations of the estimated availability of indigenous and
imported crude oil and shale oil. The yield patterns thus established
have been used throughout the postwar period for lack of more adequate
data.
Although the output of petroleum products in Communist China
almost doubled between 1951 and 1954, China probably will continue
to depend upon imports of crude oil and products to meet its needs
at least until 1960. The natural crude oil resources of China are
~' Table 11 follows on p. 19.
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Estimated Output of Petroleum Products in China a/
1931-37 and 1946-54
Year
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel
Fuel
Lubricating
Oil
Residual
and Others
Total b/
1931 J
6
3
3
N.A.
41
53
1932 c/
7
4
3
N.A.
47
61
1933 c/
9
5
4
N.A.
59
77
1934 c/
6
3
3
N.A.
37
49
1935 c/
12
6
6
N.A.
78
102
1936 ~
12
6
6
N.A.
81
l05
1937 c/
14
7
7
N.A.
g2
120
1946
20
1C
10
N.A.
30
70
1g47
10
10
10
N.A.
30
60
1848
20
10
10
N.A.
30
70
194g
20
to
l0
5
40
85
1950
25
20
20
5
75
145
1951
go
55
55
20
180
400
1952
105
65
65
20
225
480
1953
135
90
90
25
280
620
1954
155
100
100
30
330
715
a. See Methodology, Appendix A, Section 10.
b. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree
with the sum of the rounded data shown.
c. 43/
favorable for significant increases in production, but transporta-
tion difficulties and the shortage of refining capacity impose re-
strictions on the expansion of the industry.
Advances in technology may be expected in petroleum opera-
tions because of Soviet assistance to Corrnnunist China. It is not known
to what extent refining capacity can be expanded, but it is doubtful
whether it will exceed wartime capacity of approximately 1 million tons
per year, including synthetic oil operations, within the next 5 years.
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J. North Korea.
There is no indigenous production of natural crude oil in North
Korea and there are no serviceable facilities for refining crude oil.
In 1935 the Japanese built a refinery at Wonsan designed to process an
estimated 150,000 to 250,000 tons of crude oil annually. 44 There
is no evidence that this plant ever produced at a rate corresponding
to its capacity.- In 1944 the refinery was reported to have produced
approximately 50,000 tons of refined products. During the years 1846
through mid-1948, production of petroleum products-was negligible. In
late 1948, approximately 10,000 tons of crude oil from Sakhalin was
reported to have been refined. During 1949 not more than 50,000 tons
of crude oil was processed; and in February 1950 afire at the refinery
reduced operations, and not more than about 25,000 tons was refined
before the plant was demolished by UN bombings in August. 45~ It is
doubtful whether this refinery can be rehabilitated during the fore-
seeable future.
The Japanese also built synthetic oil plants at Yongan and Aoji
to produce petroleum products from the processing of coal. The Yongan
plant was a low-temperature carbonization plant built in 1933 with an
annual capacity of approximately 12,000 tons of refined petroleum
products. 46 There is no evidence that this plant ever produced more
than 5,000 tons of refined products in any year. It was reported that
this plant was damaged by the Japanese and~or the Koreans at the end
of World War II, and that it remained in a state of disrepair through
the end of 1949. 47 This plant was demolished by UN bombings in
1950. 48 No reliable information is available to indicate that re-
construction has begun.
The Aoji plant consisted of low-temperature carbonization and
hydrogenation facilities for the processing of coal to produce alcohol,
petroleum products, and semicoke. It was built in 1938 and subsequent-
ly expanded and attained its maximum production of 15,000 tons of
petroleum products in 1942. 49 Production gradually decreased to
4,000 tons in 1945 and continued to decrease during the postwar years
under the Russians. The plant was reported idle during the period
1947-49 50 _and was demolished. by UN bombings in 1950. 51 There is
no evidence of any significant restoration.
~ Based on a conversion factor of 7.5 barrels per ton of crude oil.
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III. Capabilities) Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
With the expansion of refining capacity since World War II, the
output of petroleum products in the European Satellites has in-
creased steadily from lg~I-8 through 1954. The average annual rate
of growth has been more than 16 percent during this period, as com-
pared with approximately 12 percent in the USSR for the same period.
Reports of increased production of petroleum in Rumania, Hungary,
Albania, and Bulgaria indicate a trend favorable to further expansion
of refining capacity in the European Satellites, although the rate of
growth may be somewhat lower than in the last 6 years. The facili-
ties in this area represent a source of refined petroleum products
which would be vital from a logistic point of view in any military
operations which may be undertaken.
In Communist China there has been a significant increase in the
contribution of the petroleum industry to the economic potential of the
country during the past 5 years. As yet, however, this industry
does not represent an important factor in the GNP of China. Most
Chinese requirements for petroleum products will have to be met by
imports for several years.
A major vulnerability of the petroleum industry in the European
Satellites is the dependence upon imports both of raw materials for
processing and of finished products. The curtailment or elimination
of these imports would cause a disruption in the supply of petroleum
products in more than half of the Satellite countries. Another sig-
nificant vulnerability is the shortage of adequate transportation facil-
ities for internal and intra-Bloc movement of charge stocks and prod-
ucts. In Hungary and East Germany there have been several instances
of a shortage of tank cars for the transportation of petroleum stocks.
In Poland, reports of sabotage of railroad lines have indicated delays
and the rerouting of trains carrying petroleum products.
The dependence of Communist China upon imports of petroleum and
petroleum products is even more critical than that of the European
Satellites. The problem of transportation is complicated by great dis-
stances as well as by lack of equipment.
As of 1954 the yield patterns of refineries in the European
Satellites and Communist China do not reveal any indication of pre-
paredness for military operations. Any change in these yield patterns
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which would emphasize the output of jet fuels and~or high octane
aviation gasoline at the expense of illuminating kerosine and~or
motor gasoline would indicate increased military preparations. An
increase in the imports and~or Stockpiling of strategic petroleum
products would also indicate an increased threat of military
operations.
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S -E-C -R-E-T
APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
1. General.
Data are very limited, when available, on the actual output of
refined petroleum products in the European Satellites and Communist
China after 1848. In this report the following bases were utilized,
where applicable, to estimate the net output of petroleum products
in each country:
a. Indigenous production of crude oil.
b. Crude oil losses before arrival at refineries. A loss
of 3.5 percent was assumed for each country. There is no firm evi-
dence for this assumption. It is based, however, upon Soviet practice,
for which the loss from wellhead to refinery is established as 4 per-
cent, plus an additional 1 percent for use as fuel in the field.
Since the distances over which crude oil is transported for processing
are shorter in the Satellites, and no significant quantities of crude
oil are consumed in the field, a loss of 3.5 percent is postulated.
c. The import-export balance for crude oil.
d. Residual imports, when intended for further processing.
e. The output of products from shale oil and~or synthetic oil.
Lack of reliable information prevents the accounting for storage
of crude oil as such in these estimates. .Although no specific estimate
on storage has been made, this increment has been considered. In the
case of Rumania -- the largest producer of crude oil among the Euro-
pean Satellites -- an increment of 10 to 20 percent of the increase in
production since World War II might be added to storage. To do so,
however, would create an error of approximately 2 to 4 percent in
estimates which already contain an error of minus 5 percent to plus 10
percent. The factor of storage, therefore, has not been propounded
as a separate item.
For several countries rather firm data on the yield of refineries
were available for 1946 and 1947. Where the lack of any recent infor-
mation precluded an estimate of the current pattern of refinery yields,
the data for 1946 and 1947 were projected to 1954 with minor modifica-
tions. Data on the quality of indigenous and imported crude oil were
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considered, where available, to reflect changes from the yield patterns
of 1846 and 1947.
A separate discussion of the methodology employed for each country
is given to indicate the steps undertaken to obtain the estimate of
output. Methodology is discussed by country in order of importance.
2. Rumania.
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks in Rumania
in 1848-54 is shown in Table 12. These are the basic statistics used
to estimate the output of petroleum products in Rumania. There were
no known exports of crude oil before 1953? There is some very meager
information which indicates that a small quantity of crude oil was ex-
ported during 1953 and 1954. This amount has not been confirmed,
however, and for the purposes of this report it is neglected. At most
this export figure would introduce an additional error of not more
than 2 percent.
Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in Rumania
1948-54
ar
Y
Crude Oil
Production
Crude Oil Loss
(3.5 Percent)
Crude Oil
Exports
Refinery Charge
e
1848
4,417 a~
155
0
4,262
1949
4,815 J
16g
o
4,646
1950
5,465 a/
191
0
5,274
4
1951
6,728 a/
235
0
6,
93
1952
7,987 of
280
0
7 707
1953
9,046 a/
317
N.A.
8,729
195 4
lo,ooo ~
35o
N.A.
g,65o
a. 52
b. 53
-24-
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From official Rumanian statistics reported for 1946 and 1947 (as
shown in Table 3~) the approximate refinery yields from crude oil
charged were established. These percentage yields were as follows~~:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
29
Kerosine
13
Diesel fuel
12
Lubricating oil
2.5
Residuals and others
34
Gas and loss 9.5
Although an increase in Rlur~a,nian production of gasoline was
planned for 1955 as compared with 1950, 54~ there are no firm data on
which to base estimates of output of any product after 1947. An in-
crease in cracking capacity was also planned in the postwar years 55~
which may have altered the yield pattern. In view of the lack of
any reliable information, however, the yield pattern of 1846-47 is
projected through 1954 to obtain the estimates shown in Table 3.
There are no current data available on the yield of natural gas
liquids in Rumania during postwar years, so that this contribution
to total output of products has not been considered in this report.
3. East Germany.
There is no known indigenous production of crude oil in East
Germany. The entire output of petroleum products in East Germany is
obtained from the processing of imported crude oil and residual
stocks and from the processing of coal and coal tar. The synthetic
oil products are produced primarily by coal and coal tar hydrogenation
processes (Bergius and Fischer-Tropsch) and tar distillation. The
synthetic oil industry in East Germany is the largest and most highly
developed in the world.
Available data on East Germany for 1946 and 1947 provided only the
estimated output of gasoline and diesel fuel, with some production of
lubricating oil also reported. It was not possible to ascertain the
output of residuals through 1948.
~- p. 7, above.
-x-~ All tabulations on the yields of refineries are in terms of weight
percentages.
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The .output figures for 1949 through 1954 were obtained as the re-
sult of a comprehensive plant analysis study of the East German petro-
leum industry, the results of which appear in another report. 56
4. Soviet Zone of Austria.
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks in the Soviet
Zone of Austria in 1948-54 is shown in Table 13.
Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks
in the Soviet Zone of Austria
1948-54
Year
Crude Oil
Production
Crude Oil Loss Crude Oil
(3.5 Percent) Exports
Refinery Charge
1948
960.aJ
34 105 b/
821
1949
1,250 J
44 179 ~
1,027
1950
1,500 a/
52 340 d/
1,108
1951
2,30o a/
80 926 J
1,294
1952
2,800 J
98 1,175 ~
1,527 -
1953
3,200 ~
112 1,423 ~
1,665
1954
3,l0o iJ
108 1,3oa
1,692
a. 57
b. ~
~? 59
d. 0/
e. .~1
f . 62
g. 63
h .~
i. 65/
- 26 -
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The Austrian output of refined products in 1948 was reported as
shown in Table 5.~- These data establish the yields of products ob-
tained from the crude oil available for charge stock to the refineries
in 1948. These yields~~ are as follows:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
8.2
Kerosine
10.2
Diesel fuel
23.1
Lubricating oil
6.5
Residuals and others
36.0
Gas and loss
16.0
In 1953 the Austrian output of refined products was also reported. 66
The yield data thus obtained were applied to the estimated refinery
charge in 1953? The percentages derived are given below~~-:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
14
Kerosine
3
Diesel fuel
23
Lubricating oil
5
Residuals and others
42
Gas and loss
13
In order to estimate the yield pattern for petroleum products for
19~~-6 through 1953 using the two existing data points (19+8 and 1953),
a graph of Austrian requirements for petroleum products for 1946 to
1951 67 was plotted. This plot indicated the change in demand for
petroleum products by the Austrian economy and was used in estimating
refinery yields in 1946 and 1947. A linear straight-line relation-
ship between the refinery yields of 1948 and 1953 was applied to ob-
tain approximate percentage yields for intervening years. The re-
finery yields estimated for 1946 and 1950, which illustrate the chang-
ing trend, are as follows:
~- P. 11, above.
~ Derived from unrounded data.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Percentage Yield
Product
1~~+6
1950
Gasoline
6
11
Kerosine
8
9
Diesel fuel
17
23
Lubricating oil
6
6
Residuals and others
47
36
Gas and loss
16
15
For lack of more recent data, the yield pattern for 195+ is
assumed to be the same as that for 1953?
5. Hungary.
The output pattern for Hungarian ref fineries was established for
19+6 and 19+7 (as shown in Table Fes) with an approximate product
yield of 9~+ percent on crude charge for essentially straight-run and
vacuum distillation operations. This yield was extremely high through
the distillate range from a good grade of Hungarian crude oil. The
approximate yields were as follows:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
31
Kerosine-
19
Diesel fuel
16
Lubricating oil
and residuals
28
Gas and loss
6
This yield. pattern continued generally through 1950,with minor adjust-
ments in the output of kerosine and diesel fuel. The approximate
yields in 1950 were:
p, 13, above.
- 28
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
30
Kerosine
16
Diesel fuel
20
Lubricating oil
3
Residuals and others
25
Gas and loss
6
In 1951 Hungary began to import crude oil from Austria. This
crude oil averaged about 45 percent distillates and 45 to 50 percent
residuals with a rather low gasoline and kerosine content. These
imports increased from 181,000 tons in 1951 to 355,000 tons in 1954.
In 1953 and 1954 Hungary also exported small quantities of crude oil
to East Germany. It is assumed that the exports to East Germany were
from the recently discovered Nagylengyel field. This oil is of in-
ferior quality, with only 20 percent distillates (on straight-run
distillation), but the residual portion is suitable for hydrogenation.
New producing fields in eastern Hungary which yield a good grade
of crude oil were reported to have been discovered in 1953. 68/ Thus
the yield pattern for 1953 was estimated from the quality of the
various types of crude oil available and from a projected trend of
consumption requirements available for 1951. 69 The yield for 1953
was assumed as follows:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
20.0
Kerosine
9.5
Diesel fuel
23.5
Lubricating oil
4.0
Residuals and others
37.0
Gas and loss
6.0
In 1953, therefore, by processing the poorer grade Nagylengyel and
Austrian crude oils -- which represent about 40 percent of the
available charge to the refineries -- Hungary reduced the output
of gasoline and kerosine and increased the output of diesel fuels
and residuals. This trend is probably in line with the current
pattern of demand for petroleum products in Hungary. The yields
in 1954 are assumed to be approximately the same as in 1953.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks in Hungary
in 1948-54 is shown in Table 14.
Table 14
Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in Hungary
1948-54
Year
Crude Oil
Production
Crude Oil
Loss
_(3.5 Percent)
Crude Oil
Imports
(from Austria)
Crude Oil
Exports
Refinery
Charge
1948
499
17
o
N.A.
482
1949
497
17
o
N.A.
480
1950
511
18
0
N.A.
493
1951
535
19
181 ~
N.A.
697
1952
570
20
35o b/
N.A.
900
1953
83o c~
2g
32o a/
28 ~
1,093
1954
1,118 J
39
355
60
1,374
a. 70
b . 71
c. 72
d? 73
e.
6. Czechoslovakia.
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks and output of
synthetic oil products and benzol in Czechoslovakia in 1948-54 is
shown in Table 15.*
Data on the output of refineries in Czechoslovakia for 1946 and
1947 are not available. The total output of products from the syn-
thetic oil plant at Most, however, as well as the total production of
lubricating oil, is available for 1947, as shown in Table 7.~~ The
* Table 15 follows on p. 31.
~ P. 14, above.
Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
yield pattern utilized for the production of synthetic oil in Czecho-
slovakia for 1946 through 1954 is found in the 1949 Plan. 9roximatel
yields of liquid fuels from coal tar hydrogenation are app Y
as follows:
Product Percentage Yield
Gasoline 55
Kerosine 10
Gas oil 35
For the years 1948-54, indigenous crude oil and imported crude oil
and residuals are assumed to have been processed by Czechoslovakia
according to the 1949 Plan. 93 Petroleum distillates are also im-
ported but, as stated in the 1949 Plan, they are processed at the
synthetic plant at Most, so that this category is absorbed in the
total output of synthetic oil and does not appear as an entity in
calculations of yield.
The yield of products from Czechoslovak crude oil is as follows:
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
1.4
Kerosine
3.3
Diesel fuel
25.0
Lubricating oil
50.3
Residuals and others
10.0
Gas and loss
10.0
Residuals imported from Austria show the yield of products to be
as follows:
product
Percentage Yield
Diesel fuel
5
Lubricating oil
45
Residuals and others
34
Loss
16
~ This yield does not include gas and loss because only the esti-
mated output of liquid fuel is estimated and loss on coal charge has
no significance in calculating the output of petroleum products.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S -E-C -R-E-T
The reported yield of products obtained from Rumanian residuals
is as follows:
Product
Percentage Yield
Diesel Biel
10
Lubricating oil
40
Residuals and others
34
Loss
16
Crude oil imported from Austria is estimated to be primarily
asphalt-base from the Matzen fields. The yield pattern is assumed to
be as follows-94
Gasoline
5
Kerosine
10
Diesel fuel
25
Lubricating oil
10
Residuals and others
45
Gas and loss
5
It was reported in 1954 that the output of liquid fuels from the
synthetic oil industry is the mainstay of the Czechoslovak fuels
industry, 95 so that figures on production apparently are aligned
in the correct order. It was estimated that the synthetic oil plant
at Most produced 94 percent of the motor gasoline. output and 69 per-
cent of the kerosine and distillate fuels in Czechoslovakia in
1951. g6
Estimated production of benzol, which is added as a blending
agent to motor gasoline, is included in the total yield of gasoline.
These data were obtained from a revised estimate of previously pub-
lished information on the Czechoslovak chemical industry. 97
7. Poland.
Data on Polish output of refined petroleum products in 1946 and
1947 are given. in an official Polish publication g8 and provide a
yield pattern as follows:
-34-
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Product
Percentage Yield
Gasoline
28.1
Kerosine
18.0
Diesel fuel
16.8
Lubricating oil
20.9
Residuals and others
8.4
Gas and loss
7.8
These data reveal that paraffin-base crude oils were being pro-
duced and processed in Poland. This yield pattern is followed gen-
erally through 1948 and 1911-9 for refining indigenous crude oil.
Minor adjustments were adopted which effected a reduction in output
of kerosine and an increase in production of diesel fuel. Output of
lubricating oil was also decreased, with a corresponding increase in
residuals.
Crude oil from the Middle East was imported during 1848 and 19+9?
The pattern of refinery yield for this charge stock was assumed to be
similar to that for the crude oil imported from the Middle East by
Czechoslovakia in 1948. The percentage yields utilized, as deter-
mined from 1949 Plan data, were as follows 99
Product
percentage Yield
Gasoline
20
Kerosine
13
Diesel fuel
18
Lubricating oil
20
Residuals and others
19
Gas and loss
10
Poland began to import crude oil in 1951 in significant quantities
from Austria and Albania. Austrian crude oil imported is primarily
from the Matzen fields, on the basis of data on shipments since 1952.
Estimates of straight-run distillation yields from Albanian and
Austrian crude oil imported by Poland are as follows:
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Percentage Yield
d
n Crude Oil 100
i
Alb
Austrian Crude Oil 101
uct
Pro
an
a
Gasoline
13
5
Kerosine
7
10
Diesel fuel
18
~5
Lubricating oil
~+
10
Residuals
~+0
~+5
Gas and loss
18
5
The yield of refined products from all crude oil sources in Poland
for 1953 and 195+ is estimated as follows:
For the first time since World War II, the synthetic oil industry
began limited operations in 1950, when the plant at Oswiecim (Dwory)
went on stream. 102 Production of synthetic oil through 1952 pro-
ceeded very slowly, but in 1953 other facilities began initial opera-
tions. The output of the synthetic oil industry has been estimated on
a preliminary basis at 250,000 tons of petroleum products in 1954,
with the Odertal plant in full operation. There are indications that
this source will represent a significant factor in the output of
petroleum products in Poland.
Refined benzol for motor gasoline blending is also included in the
case of Poland. Data were obtained from a revised estimate of the
benzol production in Poland. Bases for the calculations which give
the yield of refined benzol are found in source 103. The estimated
availability of refinery charge stocks and output of synthetic oil
products, benzol, and natural gas liquids in Poland in 19+8-5~+ is
shown in Table 16.-~
~ Table 1 follows on p. 37.
- 36 -
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79- 1093A001000030001-4
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Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
8. Albania.
Before World War II, no crude oil was refined in Albania. All
crude oil was sent to Italy for processing. 115
During World War II, the Germans set up three portable refineries
at Kucove (Stalin), which were damaged duxing the withdrawal of the
German troops. In 1947 one of these refineries was in operation,
along with a small Italian refinery. These refineries, which supplied
only local needs, may have processed a crude oil charge of approxi-
mately 15,000 tons to 20,000 tons a year. At most, 10 percent of the
normal production of crude oil was required for local consumption.
Thus crude oil became a principal item for export in Albania. 116
In 1952 an excess of crude oil became available, over and above
exports, for refinery charge. The refining capacity through 1954 is
estimated to be not in excess of 40,000 to 50,000 tons. per year, and
estimates of output in 1953 and 1954 are based on this assumption. A
new refinery at Cerrik should have begun operation in early 1955. 117
This will add an additional 150,000 tons per year to Albanian refin-
ing capacity and provide for the processing of this excess crude oil.
In view of the increase in Albanian production of crude oil and
the reduction in exports, this surplus of crude oil probably was
planned. With the construction of the new refinery, Albania will
become an exporter of refined petroleum products.
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks in Albania
in 1947-54 is shown in Table 17.E
9. Bulgaria.
Before World War II, .Bulgaria produced very small quantities of
petroleum products, obtained primarily from the topping plant at Ruse.
No firm data were available on the postwar operation of this
plant at Ruse, but it may have had the capacity to refine 25,000 tons
per year in 1953. 118 There has been no evidence, however, that
crude oil was produced or imported for refining in Bulgaria before
1954. It is estimated, therefore, that there was no output of re-
fined petroleum products from 1946 through 1953?
Table 17 follows on p. 39?
-38-
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 17
Estimated Availability of Refinery Charge Stocks in Albania
1947-54
Thousand Metric Tons
Crude Oil Exports
Crude Oil
Crude Oil Loss
Refinery/
a
ti
d
5 Percent
(3
USSR
Poland
Yugoslavia
Charge
Year
on
uc
Pro
.
9
48 b
1
g8
3
35 ~
0
40 ~
20
1849 %
132
5
loo
20
0
7
i95o b/
132 ~
5
70
50
0
7
A
N
1951 ~
125 f/
4
30 ~
145 ~
0
.
.
82 %
8i
1953
169 ~
6
0
0
106
1954
198 ~
7
0
85
0
a. l~
b. Unknown quantit~.es of natural bitumen are included in the crude oil
production figures for 1947-49 and in export figures for 1947-51.
c.
120
d.
121
e.
122
f .
123/
g ?
~/
h.
125
j.
127/
k .
12~/
1.
129
In 1954 it was reported that Bulgaria had begun the production of
indigenous crude oil. 130 As of March 1955, no data were available
to indicate the quantity, if any, being refined in Bulgaria. It is
possible that the entire amount is exported and that refined products
still are imported.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
10. China.
There is no positive intelligence on which to base estimates of
the output of refined petroleum products for the postwar years in
China. The following factors were used to estimate output from the
indigenous crude oil and shale oil produced, considering the type of
raw material and refining equipment available for processing.
Percentage Yield
Product
Natural
Crude Oil
Shale
Oil
Gasoline
22
10
Kerosine
15
5
Diesel fuel
15
5
Lubricating oil
5
p
Residuals and others
33
65
Gas and loss
~ 10
15
The estimated availability of refinery charge stocks in China in
19+6-54 is shown in Table 18.x- These data are used as the base fig-
ures for determining the output of refined products in China. Crude
oil has been imported from the USSR (primarily Ekhabi crude oil from
Sakhalin) since 1950. No reliable data are available on imports of
crude oil before that time, although refined products were and still
are imported. Quality data on Ekhabi crude oil are available, 131 and
the yield from crude oil charged to the refinery equipment available
in China is assumed to be as follows':
* .Table 1 follows on p. ~+1.
-~+0-
S-E-C-R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
r-{ O
.~ .~
o -,-~
rd rd
~ O
U P-i
N ~ u~ ~ `O Lt\ ~ O\ \O
CO ~D L M u1 _~ -~' '`- O\
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N o0 O ~ '~ u~ C- a\ `O
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m .~ .~- ~

Statistical Yearbook of Poland 1 +8, op. cit.. (39, above .
CIA.. FDD Special Translation , op. cit. ~, above),
p. 12 and 13, SUS ONLY. Eval. RR 2.
Interior, Petroleum Administration for War. Petroleum
Resources of Albania, by F. Reeves, Dec 52, p. 5, R?
25X1A2g
25X1A2g
CIA.. ORR Project -51-II WP , The Coal-Tar Chemical
Industry
Ib'd
in Poland, 15. Jun 53, p. 2 and 2 , S.
i .
CIA. ORR Project 25.194, op. cit. (3, above), p. 13,
SUS ONLY.
CIA. CIA~RR PR-107, op. cit. (64, above), p. 13, S~NOFORN_
CIA. CIA.~RR PR-17 (II-D , op. cit. (60, above
54, "Prerequisites for
25X1A2g
25X1A2g
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
25X1 A2g 117. 25X1 A2g
118. CIA.. ORR Project 25.195, op. c (26, above), p. 9s
S/US ONLY.
119. CIA. ORR Project 25.194, op. cit. (3, above), p. 8,
S/US ONLY.
120. State, Belgrade. Dsp 20, 21 Feb 49, Yugoslav Petroleum
Industr info 1947-48, S. Eval. RR 2. 25X1A2g
25X1A2g 121,
122. State, OIR. Intelligence Rpt 049, 31 Dec 52, Albania's
Five-Year Economic Plan, 1951-55, info May 52, p. 12,
25X1 A2g 123. 25X1 A2g
124.
FOIAb3b1 125.
126. CTA.. CIA/RR IM-375, oP? cit. (62, above).
127. Interior, Petroleum Administration for Wax, op. cit.
FOIAb3b1
100, above).
FOIAb3b
131. CIA. ORR Project 25.193 Research Aid), Part 1, Specifi-
cations for Crude Oil in the USSR, 1 Nov 54, infoo 19~+~,
p. 102, C.
132. CIA. ORR Project 25.194, op. cit. (3, above), p. 17,
SUS ONLY.
133. UN. Statistical Yearbook, 1854, New York, 1954, p. 118, U.
Eval. RR 1.
134. CIA.. ORR Project 25.194, op. cit. (3, above), p. 17,
SUS ONLY.
- 52 -
S -E -C -R-E-T
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 :CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4
25X1 A2g 135
136. The Oil Forum, Apr g, p. 1 5-~_~, U. Eval. RR 2.
137. State, Hong Kong. Dsp 838, 17 Nov 5~+, The Economy of
Communist China: Third Quarter 195-, p. 15 and 1 ,
U OFF USE ONLY.
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 Approved For Release 1999/09/02 CIA-RDP79'-01D93A001000030001-4
SECRET
NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
'' NOT RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN NATIONALS
Approved For Release 199~~J/'d~T CIA-RDP79-01093A001000030001-4