COMMODITY AND INDUSTRY STUDIES

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
8
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 8, 1999
Sequence Number: 
22
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 10, 1951
Content Type: 
MF
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9.pdf224.52 KB
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Approved For Relea 2000/08/29: CIA-RDP79-01157000100040022-9 . MEWWWWW 10 February 1951 i,L,ORA JUL` FOR ALL DIVISION DIi_ECTORS, RR FLOL:: Assistant Director for Research and Reports SUPJECT: Coi modity and it hi Itry Studies 1? Attached are some embryonic ideas on an .outline for commodity and i u ?y studies which were stimulated by some proposals of the Industry Division, 2,. Liy tentative notion of how we might proceed is somewhat as follows: These studies should be run through very hastily, once for a wide range of industries and comtaodities using only knowledge already in the heads of analysts or easily available data now in the shop, Where all we are reasonably sure of is a range of data, we should indicate it ("somewhere between and Where we have no data we should say so. Parts of the outline will be more relevant to some ite...s, other parts to others,, Parts not important for an item should be omitted, b? This outline was drawn with the USSR proper in Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 Approved For Release 2000/O8l Q.- ~m f ?x?79-01157A000100040022-9 04 mind0 It could also apply to the Orbit as a ::hole ore with modifica- tions, to Satellites or groups of satellites. ca Tentative conclusions should be stated for all iteias as in Section V of the outline on the basis of this quickie analysis. d 0 These conclusions should be the basis for selecting what look life the most important items for further study, and tho most important problems relating to those items, e. Lore intensive studies should then be made of the priority ite.:izs exhausting in so far as possible, relevant material available in the government, f. These studies will reveal critical gaps in our information, which can be the basis for designing priority require- ments for fur-titer data collection, 3. Outlines of a similar character but differing in detail could be drama up for the service functions of transport, coiumunicationse potter, etc? Ito Will you circulate this outline among your analysts, Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : C 4&-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 aaw"Poo Approved For Rele J 2000/08/29 : CIAIRDP79-0115F7A000100040022-9 collect their ideas as to the wain elements in it, and prepare to discuss them at an early meetinC0 LAX F. LILLIKATI Encl, 1 Approved For Release 2000/08/21 C4LRDP79-01157A000100040022-9 Approved For Rele s, 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79-0115Z1 000100040022-9 DPJ.FT OUTLI-.E FOF II DUtiTEY AND CO:_LODITY STUDIES I. Inter rduct2Z A. General description of nature and uses of product,, B. History in USSR. Co General description of tocluiolor now employed. D. Summary of location and capacity of facilities, E. Organization of the industry. F.. Vihy is it important to know about this industry or resource? II. Rem ,cirri ants A. Domestic civilian requirements. (By category) B. Export requirements. 1. To support economies of satellite or occupied areas. 2. For potential economic warfare purposes; e.g., dumping, offers of assistance to countries on the fence, etc. 3. To secure essential imports a. Ly barter b. Ly sale for dollars or otlier exchangeable currency. C. Liilitary r e:suui.rements for 10 i:aintenance of stand.-by forces 2. Limited operations, e..". a. Indo-China b. Yugoslavia C. Western Germany Approved For Release 2000/08/29 ?C A'RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 SECRET Approved For R ;1ea` t1(Pl bY6'?SG C17'95b0Ia157A000100040022-9 3 ;that disadvantages would this ,,ai ? 1210 Supplies A. Doiectic productive capacity - USSR - latest figures 1. (For industries) Number, location, and characteristics of. plants (with maps). (For raw materials) quantities and locations of original deposits. 2. Capacity output under sustained normal operation, by regions. 3. Emergency maximum output. B, Actual production, by region, with historical trends, C. Trends 1, Recent rate of Growth of output 2. (For industries) potential increases of capacity SECRET Approved For Release 2000/08/29 CIA-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 Approved For Releasq 2000/08/29 : CIALR-DP79-0115,7000100040022-9 aan Z;y new plant construction b. By diversion of plant from other uses, 3, (For raw materials) potential expansion of supplies a, By more intensive exploitation of known reserves b. By discovery of new reserves D. Stocks 1, Workin inventories 2, Strategic reserves. E, External sources (to L'SSFr) I- Supplies avz:ilable from satellites (derived from similar studies of satellite position). 2. Availability from outside iron curtain a. Principal sources b. Recent volume of imports c. Supplies available from countries potentially subject to US1 conquest. d. Effect of western control measures N. In ut use and reSuirera?nts (each for various levels of output indicated in Tr ) A. Principal raw materials required B, Fuel and power requirements C, Transport requirements for both inputs and outputs. D, Manpower requirements and supplies 1. Total employment -- numbers of people, hours of works number of shifts, etc, 2, Skill distrii.ution, with specialabtention to skills Approved For Release 2000/08/29 81A-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 SECRET Approved For Rele 2000/08/29 : C:IA- RDP79-01157000100040022-9 :.1Yird I.~J.&. believed to be in short supply. 3, L'anagerial. personnel to Technical and scientific personnel, including dependence, past or preterit, on foreign experts., US and other,, and technical assistance. Probable use of Ger..ian personnel pre-war II. Va Sura~l Lry-qLeL nif ica~u conclusions yrith res ect to: A, Capabilities - lo Assuring allied economic warfare no more vigorous than at p.tasent., is this item now a limitation on any cours of action by USSR? Which? Short run? Long run? 2? If yes, wh.t are key factors limiting future expansion of supple. as in US.3R? B. Vulnerabilities, What steps (cold or hot) taken by us would most effectivE.)y restrict supplies available to USSR? How long mould. it take to feel the pinch? CO, Intentions, If we had s.ccurate knowledge of actual and potential supplies, ti rc1d it tell us anything conclusive about intentions? VJou.d different levels of types of output clearly indicat: different probable courses of action? VI. Appendix: V re outside CIA Lportant work being done on this item and hj whom? Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : Cl -RDP79-01157A000100040022-9 SECRE` r- Approved For ReleaV 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79-01157 00100040022-9 Ao Other IAC agencies 13o Non-IAG aCeneies of gov-td C. Private Universities, industrial research labs,, research institute s9 etc, ? Approved For Release 2000/08/29 q-CRDP79-01157A000100040022-9