COMMODITY AND INDUSTRY STUDIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01157A000100040022-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 1999
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: February 10, 1951
• Content Type: MF

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MEWWWWW
10 February 1951
i,L,ORA JUL` FOR ALL DIVISION DIi_ECTORS, RR
FLOL:: Assistant Director for Research and Reports
SUPJECT: Coi modity and it hi Itry Studies
1? Attached are some embryonic ideas on an .outline for
commodity and i u ?y studies which were stimulated by some proposals
of the Industry Division,
2,. Liy tentative notion of how we might proceed is somewhat
as follows:
These studies should be run through very hastily,
once for a wide range of industries and comtaodities using only
knowledge already in the heads of analysts or easily available
data now in the shop, Where all we are reasonably sure of is a range
of data, we should indicate it ("somewhere between and
Where we have no data we should say so. Parts of the outline will
be more relevant to some ite...s, other parts to others,, Parts not
important for an item should be omitted,
b? This outline was drawn with the USSR proper in
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04
mind0 It could also apply to the Orbit as a ::hole ore with modifica-
tions, to Satellites or groups of satellites.
ca Tentative conclusions should be stated for all
iteias as in Section V of the outline on the basis of this quickie
analysis.
d 0 These conclusions should be the basis for
selecting what look life the most important items for further study,
and tho most important problems relating to those items,
e. Lore intensive studies should then be made
of the priority ite.:izs exhausting in so far as possible, relevant
material available in the government,
f. These studies will reveal critical gaps in our
information, which can be the basis for designing priority require-
ments for fur-titer data collection,
3. Outlines of a similar character but differing in detail
could be drama up for the service functions of transport, coiumunicationse
potter, etc?
Ito Will you circulate this outline among your analysts,
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collect their ideas as to the wain elements in it, and prepare to
discuss them at an early meetinC0
LAX F. LILLIKATI
Encl, 1
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DPJ.FT OUTLI-.E FOF II DUtiTEY AND CO:_LODITY STUDIES
I. Inter rduct2Z
A. General description of nature and uses of product,,
B. History in USSR.
Co General description of tocluiolor now employed.
D. Summary of location and capacity of facilities,
E. Organization of the industry.
F.. Vihy is it important to know about this industry or resource?
II. Rem ,cirri ants
A. Domestic civilian requirements. (By category)
B. Export requirements.
1. To support economies of satellite or occupied areas.
2. For potential economic warfare purposes; e.g.,
dumping, offers of assistance to countries on the
fence, etc.
3. To secure essential imports
a. Ly barter
b. Ly sale for dollars or otlier exchangeable currency.
C. Liilitary r e:suui.rements for
10
i:aintenance of stand.-by forces
2. Limited operations, e..".
a. Indo-China
b. Yugoslavia
C. Western Germany
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3 ;that disadvantages would this ,,ai ?
1210 Supplies
A. Doiectic productive capacity - USSR - latest figures
1. (For industries) Number, location, and characteristics
of. plants (with maps). (For raw materials) quantities
and locations of original deposits.
2. Capacity output under sustained normal operation,
by regions.
3. Emergency maximum output.
B, Actual production, by region, with historical trends,
C. Trends
1, Recent rate of Growth of output
2. (For industries) potential increases of capacity
SECRET
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aan Z;y new plant construction
b. By diversion of plant from other uses,
3, (For raw materials) potential expansion of supplies
a, By more intensive exploitation of known reserves
b. By discovery of new reserves
D. Stocks
1, Workin inventories
2, Strategic reserves.
E, External sources (to L'SSFr)
I- Supplies avz:ilable from satellites (derived from
similar studies of satellite position).
2. Availability from outside iron curtain
a. Principal sources
b. Recent volume of imports
c. Supplies available from countries potentially
subject to US1 conquest.
d. Effect of western control measures
N. In ut use and reSuirera?nts (each for various levels of output
indicated in Tr )
A. Principal raw materials required
B, Fuel and power requirements
C, Transport requirements for both inputs and outputs.
D, Manpower requirements and supplies
1. Total employment -- numbers of people, hours of works
number of shifts, etc,
2, Skill distrii.ution, with specialabtention to skills
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:.1Yird
I.~J.&.
believed to be in short supply.
3, L'anagerial. personnel
to Technical and scientific personnel, including
dependence, past or preterit, on foreign experts.,
US and other,, and technical assistance. Probable
use of Ger..ian personnel pre-war II.
Va Sura~l Lry-qLeL nif ica~u conclusions yrith res ect to:
A, Capabilities -
lo Assuring allied economic warfare no more vigorous
than at p.tasent., is this item now a limitation on
any cours of action by USSR? Which? Short run?
Long run?
2? If yes, wh.t are key factors limiting future expansion
of supple. as in US.3R?
B. Vulnerabilities, What steps (cold or hot) taken by us would
most effectivE.)y restrict supplies available to USSR? How
long mould. it take to feel the pinch?
CO, Intentions, If we had s.ccurate knowledge of actual and
potential supplies, ti rc1d it tell us anything conclusive
about intentions? VJou.d different levels of types of
output clearly indicat: different probable courses
of action?
VI. Appendix: V re outside CIA Lportant work being done on
this item and hj whom?
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Ao Other IAC agencies
13o Non-IAG aCeneies of gov-td
C. Private Universities, industrial research labs,, research
institute s9 etc, ?
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