NIE-40

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01157A000200090032-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: May 3, 1952
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/01/3 - 1157A000200090032-2
FOR#
,ty Ass
SECURITY INFORMATION r MAY 1952
Director (iii
UP=
The C Working pup has alrr+ dy transmitted. to your office
the sector papers and the revised conolueions of its contribution to
.0. Enclosure A contains the final to this gontributiono
Although this estimate has been concurred in by the working
pup representatives of the tributiaa agencies,, there were several
questions n the petroleum sections relating to Western Nero that
were not completely resolved. Tn on Mort to obtain expert advice on
those sections CC consulted with its Petroleum Intelligence
Advisory Croup. The vims of the Chairman of this group are in the
attached letters (enclosure B). In addition hese sections were
ed by the Petroleum Consultants Panel. b to ORR.
cialiets believe that residsal oil cemirution could not be cut by
3. While there were some differences of opinion and fact on
various aspects of this subject, the major item of interest to the
Office of National Estimates is the general difference between the
conclusions of some cf the petroleum specialists and those of the ETC
Working Crop on the quest-Lon of residual oil. Some of the petroleum
50 per cent without reducing the levels of production
coned inF the contribution to WIP 4iQ. T 'he IC Vorkin Group, on
expected to convert from oil-burning to coal-burning
troleum specialists on the O RR Consultants Panel
conversion time of 12 to 18 months while the Working
conversion time on the order of 6 moths, Neither
'f tcient evince for an authoritative estimate. That
could be collected only though a large-scale effort in Western
The Working Group's opinion is based on statements from to
up of top petroleum experts
or Defense; Munitions Board; Mutual Security Agency;
to and CIA*
includes a
25X1A5A1
The rya Point at issue is the speed at which Western European
other h nd belie "s that conception could be out by 75 per cent.
ration),
3
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64; -
 Approved For Release 2006/01/11-1- P79-01157A000200090032-2
tuCes in m
bility be en
the s s.ested ease
40
the ee Qr Of 'W
:-by coal furn.a ea are ; . ln1. in
using residual oil for fuel and that
Do constructed as to facilitate convertip
petroleum specialists are skeptical
hility.
by the EXC Working Group. If' the vi o
is than that anvisag l
he enoc ontxbution of a Soviet-ocovped snt
lQftP* would be Wirer than outlined in the contribu
ialiste are correct
ntal eetern
ion to AtIO,
kfort ately, no data have been presented to suggest the mounts by
which production in different econ: c sectors zu3A be reduced.
One other difference arose on the question of whether the
draw on captured stocks of , or would hold there
Nation really could not be awnrl unless the ci:rcum-
ocpation period were known. In preparing HIE-40 it
eat that O indicate the possibility of both courses of
6. M suggests that ONE fully consider the footnote on
page 19 which states the assumption that there will be no irlrts of
crude oil or petroleum products into the 113 4 R from Iran, with the
exception of 30 000 tons which could be mo'ed by rail. Tt is now the
opinion of OR R that in one year or lose., the Soviets could construct
#Ad place in operation a 20-inch products pipe line from the Abadan
axea,to a Caplan ?fit, and that if the Abadan refine were not
Wooed, 200#000 bb, a day of products could be delivered to -tankers
and barges on the pien by this means. :"Icreov?:r, the presumption
that no sig'tifi" xt amounts of L could be moved b f pipe line to tb
tureen 6ea arid from there by water to the ports of Southern
BaWe and the Danube basin sees entirely cxnrealistic in the face of
the tic hypothesis that the Soviets would occupy the Near East and
the Iberia= Peninsula*
Enclosures:
25X1A9A
Tab A - Corrigenda, Cover Sheets for
Annexes 1&6Annex 2?
25X1A2G Tab B
25X1A9A
nrn
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MISSING PAGE
ORIGINAL DOCUMENT MISSING PAGE(S):
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