PROCEDURE FOR D/I ANALYSIS IN PREPARING PRODUCTION AND INPUT ESTIMATES FOR NIE-65

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100017-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 17
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100017-7
Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100017-7
 Approved Fojr Rjelease ,w 0a. CIA-RDP79-011 7 00200100017-7
~r 60 ~a
APPENDIX B
PROCEDURE FOR D/I ANALYSTS IN PREPARING PRODUCTION AND INPUT ESTIMATES FOR
-65
1a First 12haases The deadline for completing this phase is 13 June 1952-
Bef or?e drawing up production terse series, D/I analysts are requested to l
(a) Submit to A/EC a list of the product outputs for which output
.estimates can probably be provided, Include both industrial sector and
reportable product varieties within these cectoraa The purpose of this
initial request is to enable A/EC to fill in the official ORR industrial
classification and to enable it to exploit its extensive price datao
(b) Note on the lists of reportable products those items for which
Soviet prices in different years are availablea A/EC has acquired some
70 price lists$ mostly 1949 and 1950 prices, and would be interested in
exchanging price inforr^ration,
20 Second s The deadline for completing this phase is 29 August 1952?
The substantive contributions by the analysts will consist of the followings
(a) Estimates of Soviet output of individual products for each year
from 1927/28 through 1951. For those intermediate years in which no
estimates are available the use of interpolated figures is suggested.
Because A/EC already has extensive data on the period through 1935, analysts
should consult with A/EC before doing research on the early period,,
(b) Estimates on Satellite and Chinese economic activity, Although
the main interest in this study is the USSR,, estimates of production by
Satellite and Chinese sources should be included and differentiated if they
comprise a significant portion of the total,
Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100017-7
 Approved FQr l elease 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-011 qZ,4000200100017-7
S mE-C-R?E-T
Appondix B, D/I
3, Third Phase I
After output estimates have been furnished by It/I analysts, A/EC
will use the submitted materials to construct indices of output. The
various time series will be plotted to provide a basis for extrapolating
production trends. The extrapolation process will require extensive
consultation between A/EC and functional analysts, in order that 1957
production in each industry can be estimated in ranges, with probable upper
and lower limits being set in accordance with our knowledge of expected
developments in the industryo
4- Fourth 121ase s The sire for completing this phase is 12 September 1952
for I/CG, I/SH, VPE, and I/EEi aid 26 September 1952 for IN I/AIR,, and
I/wa
After 1957 outputs have been derived,. the functional analysts will
part
icipate in establishing input requirements for these production totem
where it is possible for input aru1ysie to be improved over the work done
in ORR #11o551. Responsibility for determining the amount of effort which
ahomId be devoted to input analysis rests with Chief, D/10
V=2~
Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100017-7