PROCEDURE OF D/S ANALYSTS IN PREPARING SERVICE OUTPUT AND INPUT ESTIMATES FOR NIE-65

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Content Type: OUTLINE

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PROCEDURE FOR D/S A1ALYSTS IN PREPARING SERVICE OUTPUT AND INPUT ESTIMATES
FOR NIE $
I0 General procedure for DDS analysts.
1 o First phases The deadline for completing this phase is 1 August 1952
for 3/TR, S/Cord, and S /EP., and 29 August 1952 for S/CONa
The substantive contribution by the analysts will consoiat of the
following %
(a) Estimates of Soviet service outputs for as many service categories and
subcategories as possible for each year from 1927/28 through 1951. For
those intermediate years in which no estimates are available the use of
interpolated figures is suggested. On account of the heterogeneous nature
of service activities, individual reporting requests have been established
for each D/S branch? These special procedural suggestions will be found In
the latter portion of this appendix,,
(b) Estimates on Satellite and Chinese economic activity,, Although the
main interest in this study is the DSSRO estimates of production by Satellite
and Chinese sources should be included and differentiated if they comprise
a significant portion of the total o
2 a Second phase -3
After service output estimates have been furnished by 1)/S analysts., A/EC
will use the submitted materials to construct indices of output. The various
time series will be , plotted to provide a basis for extrapolating activity
trends. The extrapolation process will require extensive cone' ltation
between A/EC and functional analysts, in order that 1951 activity in each
service industry can be estimated in ranges,, With probable upper and lower
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Appendix B:, f/S
;limits being set in accordance wi h our knowledge of expected developments
in the industry,,
3c, Third Phase: The deadline for completing thin phase is 15 August 1952
for S/TR,, S/CONS, and S/EPa and 12 September 1952 for S/CON0
After 1957 outputs have been derived., the functional analysts will be
requested to participate in establishing input requirements for these
activity totals where it is possible for input analysis to be improved
over the work done in 0RR #11051, Responsibility for determining the
amount of effort which should be devoted to input analysis rests with
Chief., fl/S,,
T14 eo aa1 noted a for A S bra ,ches.
1- Procedure far S/b Analystas `,he deadline for completing all phases
of S/L contribution is 15 August, 3952
(a) General Population Estim-itess (1) Estimate total population of
the present. territory of the USSR from 1945 through 19511 (2) make estimates
of total USSR population for each year from 3952 through l957; (3) estimate
total population of each E opean Satellite and China from 1945 .to 1951;
(4) estimate total population for each European Satellite and China for
each year from 1952 to 19P.
(b) Labor Force Components: (1) For the USSR for the period 1917
through 1951 estimate annual labor force breakdown into the following
categories z a agricultural ware= rs, b unskilled urban workers,,
c skilled urban workers, c professional -managerial group. (2) Extrapolate
those figu s on an annual basis from 1952 through l957? (3) If possible,
make the same component breakdown for the European Satellites and China for
1947a1.951~ and 1952-1957.
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Appendix 13, D/S
(c)
Manpower Industrial Sector Distributions (1) For the USSR for
the period 1947 through 1951 indicate size of labor force in as many
industrial and service sectors as possible; (2) project these estimates
on an annual basis from 1952 through 1957
5. Procedure for S TR ~&Ml Estes
(a) For the USSR list total tc;n/kilosueter?s of freight hauled by your
type of carrier for each year from 1926/27 through .195x.6 The war period
may be omitted if figures are unav ;,ilable.
(b) For the .European Satellites and China list similar information
for the same time period, except in the cases of Poland and East Germ
limit estimates to the period from 1946 forward.
(c) For the USSR detail the information requested in 5. (a) by as
detailed a co dity breakdown in ton/kilometers as possible. If it is
not possible to present a detailed list of freight traffic, rough percentage
indications as to division of total freight traffic together With average
length of haul for each component will suffice.
(d) For China and the Europear Satellites the procedure suggested in
section (c) may be followed,
(e) Input coefficients for trcnsport industries are requested only if
they represent revisions or additions to those submitted for ORR 11110-51,
6. Procedure for Sp'C M A.na1
(a) For the USSR for the year& 1926/27 through 1951 list annual estimates
of communications traffic for each major communications medium. If it is not
feasible to provide traffic estimates for certain years, a subst:i tuta series
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Appendix BO Ys-
listing listing total physical facilities of a communications medium will be
acceptable
(b) For the European Satellites and China list similar information
for the same time periods, except in the cases of East Germany and Poland
confine estimates to the period since 1946a -
(c) At a later stage you will be requested to provide input requirements
necessary to sustain 1957 activity levels of communications facilities.,
The total possible list of inputs is comprised by the ORR classification
of Economic Activities,
7. Procedure for 5/EP A2Q firsts
(a) For the USSR for the years 1926/27 through 1951 list annual estimates
of electric power generated in term, of kwhm
(b) For the European Satellites and China list similar information
for the saw time periodj, except in the cases of Poland and East Germ
limit estimates to the per.od from 1946 forward*
(c) If possible., break down USSR power output estimates by economic
regions. If this requirement cannot be fulfilled rough percentage divisions
of power generation by regions will suffice a
(d) If possible, provide a percentage breakdown of power? usage by
type of consumer within the USSR,
(e) No new input data is required unless the new contributions represent
revisions of or additions to the material submitted for ORR #12O.51a
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Appendix B, D/S
tr.--
8 0 Procedure for SJCD I Ana1,ys?ear a
a. For the USSR for the years 1926/27 through 1951 list annual
construction activity estimates for as massy of the ORR industrial dassssifications
as possible. It is preferable to report this information in terms of
some physical measure of construction. If the heterogeneity and incomplete
nature of the data makes this unfeasible estimates in value terms will be
acceptable. War=time statistics may be omitted if they are too sketchy
to be of value.
b0 For China and the European Satellites provide all possible
construction information for the 1926/27 to 1951 period. For Poland and
East Germany restricit coverage to the years since 194.6 0
Co No new input information will be requested except that which
represents additions to or revisions of the material submitted for
project ORR J9110-510
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APPENDIX B
PROCEDURE FOR D/M AN._4LYSTS IR PREPARING PRODUCTION AND INPUT EST]11AT 'i FOR
NM-65
10 First]2hasaa The deadline for completing this phase 3s 13 June 19520
Before drawing up production time series. ?D/I and D,M analysts are
requested to note on the lists of products* those items for which Soviet
prices in different years are available0 A/j has acquired some 70 price
lists, mostly 1949 and 1950 prices, "and would be interested in exchanging
price .information,
2 a Second akaase s The deadline for completing this phase is 1 August 1952
for all branches except 14/C, and 29 August 1952 for 1 /C0
The substantive contributions by the analysts will consist of the
following's
(a) Estimates of Soviet output of individual products for each year
from 1927/28 through 1951. For those intermediate years in which no estimates
are available the use of interpolated figures is suggested. Because A/EC
already has extensive data on the period through 1935, analysts should
consult with A/EC before doing e;earch on the early period0
(b) Estimates on Satellite and Chinese economic activity, Although
the main interest in this study is .the USSR., estimates of production by
Satellite and Chinese sources should be included ,and differentiated if
they comprise a significant portion of the total,
30 Third Phases
After output estimates have bosn furnished by D/h?~i analysts,, A/l7C will
use the submitted materials to construct indices of output, The various
tiaee series will be plotted to provide a basis for extrapolating production
trsnds,> The extrapolation procesr will require extensive cons,tiltation
The list of products to be covered will be issued under separate cover.
SSE 5L. Responsibility for determining the amount of effort which
should be devoted to ' input analysis rests with Chief, fl/Mn
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