PROCEDURE OF D/S ANALYSTS IN PREPARING SERVICE OUTPUT AND INPUT ESTIMATES FOR NIE-65

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CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6
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7
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December 20, 2016
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January 18, 2006
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18
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Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 rJ v It EwT PROCEDURE FOR D/S A1ALYSTS IN PREPARING SERVICE OUTPUT AND INPUT ESTIMATES FOR NIE $ I0 General procedure for DDS analysts. 1 o First phases The deadline for completing this phase is 1 August 1952 for 3/TR, S/Cord, and S /EP., and 29 August 1952 for S/CONa The substantive contribution by the analysts will consoiat of the following % (a) Estimates of Soviet service outputs for as many service categories and subcategories as possible for each year from 1927/28 through 1951. For those intermediate years in which no estimates are available the use of interpolated figures is suggested. On account of the heterogeneous nature of service activities, individual reporting requests have been established for each D/S branch? These special procedural suggestions will be found In the latter portion of this appendix,, (b) Estimates on Satellite and Chinese economic activity,, Although the main interest in this study is the DSSRO estimates of production by Satellite and Chinese sources should be included and differentiated if they comprise a significant portion of the total o 2 a Second phase -3 After service output estimates have been furnished by 1)/S analysts., A/EC will use the submitted materials to construct indices of output. The various time series will be , plotted to provide a basis for extrapolating activity trends. The extrapolation process will require extensive cone' ltation between A/EC and functional analysts, in order that 1951 activity in each service industry can be estimated in ranges,, With probable upper and lower S-E-C $ -E T Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 Approved For Release 6 3 yCIA-RDP79-0115 00200100018-6 low- Appendix B:, f/S ;limits being set in accordance wi h our knowledge of expected developments in the industry,, 3c, Third Phase: The deadline for completing thin phase is 15 August 1952 for S/TR,, S/CONS, and S/EPa and 12 September 1952 for S/CON0 After 1957 outputs have been derived., the functional analysts will be requested to participate in establishing input requirements for these activity totals where it is possible for input analysis to be improved over the work done in 0RR #11051, Responsibility for determining the amount of effort which should be devoted to input analysis rests with Chief., fl/S,, T14 eo aa1 noted a for A S bra ,ches. 1- Procedure far S/b Analystas `,he deadline for completing all phases of S/L contribution is 15 August, 3952 (a) General Population Estim-itess (1) Estimate total population of the present. territory of the USSR from 1945 through 19511 (2) make estimates of total USSR population for each year from 3952 through l957; (3) estimate total population of each E opean Satellite and China from 1945 .to 1951; (4) estimate total population for each European Satellite and China for each year from 1952 to 19P. (b) Labor Force Components: (1) For the USSR for the period 1917 through 1951 estimate annual labor force breakdown into the following categories z a agricultural ware= rs, b unskilled urban workers,, c skilled urban workers, c professional -managerial group. (2) Extrapolate those figu s on an annual basis from 1952 through l957? (3) If possible, make the same component breakdown for the European Satellites and China for 1947a1.951~ and 1952-1957. Approved For Release Q$/ 190 IA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 Approved For el ass 20QW LIftQE-VA-RDP79-01157200100018-6 Appendix 13, D/S (c) Manpower Industrial Sector Distributions (1) For the USSR for the period 1947 through 1951 indicate size of labor force in as many industrial and service sectors as possible; (2) project these estimates on an annual basis from 1952 through 1957 5. Procedure for S TR ~&Ml Estes (a) For the USSR list total tc;n/kilosueter?s of freight hauled by your type of carrier for each year from 1926/27 through .195x.6 The war period may be omitted if figures are unav ;,ilable. (b) For the .European Satellites and China list similar information for the same time period, except in the cases of Poland and East Germ limit estimates to the period from 1946 forward. (c) For the USSR detail the information requested in 5. (a) by as detailed a co dity breakdown in ton/kilometers as possible. If it is not possible to present a detailed list of freight traffic, rough percentage indications as to division of total freight traffic together With average length of haul for each component will suffice. (d) For China and the Europear Satellites the procedure suggested in section (c) may be followed, (e) Input coefficients for trcnsport industries are requested only if they represent revisions or additions to those submitted for ORR 11110-51, 6. Procedure for Sp'C M A.na1 (a) For the USSR for the year& 1926/27 through 1951 list annual estimates of communications traffic for each major communications medium. If it is not feasible to provide traffic estimates for certain years, a subst:i tuta series -3- Approved For Release 2UUBB1UT13Q"'CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 Approved For Rse 2006/01/30: CIA-RDP79-01157A~660200100018-6 S_B sC-R-E. z Appendix BO Ys- listing listing total physical facilities of a communications medium will be acceptable (b) For the European Satellites and China list similar information for the same time periods, except in the cases of East Germany and Poland confine estimates to the period since 1946a - (c) At a later stage you will be requested to provide input requirements necessary to sustain 1957 activity levels of communications facilities., The total possible list of inputs is comprised by the ORR classification of Economic Activities, 7. Procedure for 5/EP A2Q firsts (a) For the USSR for the years 1926/27 through 1951 list annual estimates of electric power generated in term, of kwhm (b) For the European Satellites and China list similar information for the saw time periodj, except in the cases of Poland and East Germ limit estimates to the per.od from 1946 forward* (c) If possible., break down USSR power output estimates by economic regions. If this requirement cannot be fulfilled rough percentage divisions of power generation by regions will suffice a (d) If possible, provide a percentage breakdown of power? usage by type of consumer within the USSR, (e) No new input data is required unless the new contributions represent revisions of or additions to the material submitted for ORR #12O.51a Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157AQ200100018-6 RV se -R-E T Appendix B, D/S tr.-- 8 0 Procedure for SJCD I Ana1,ys?ear a a. For the USSR for the years 1926/27 through 1951 list annual construction activity estimates for as massy of the ORR industrial dassssifications as possible. It is preferable to report this information in terms of some physical measure of construction. If the heterogeneity and incomplete nature of the data makes this unfeasible estimates in value terms will be acceptable. War=time statistics may be omitted if they are too sketchy to be of value. b0 For China and the European Satellites provide all possible construction information for the 1926/27 to 1951 period. For Poland and East Germany restricit coverage to the years since 194.6 0 Co No new input information will be requested except that which represents additions to or revisions of the material submitted for project ORR J9110-510 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6 smv~ APPENDIX B PROCEDURE FOR D/M AN._4LYSTS IR PREPARING PRODUCTION AND INPUT EST]11AT 'i FOR NM-65 10 First]2hasaa The deadline for completing this phase 3s 13 June 19520 Before drawing up production time series. ?D/I and D,M analysts are requested to note on the lists of products* those items for which Soviet prices in different years are available0 A/j has acquired some 70 price lists, mostly 1949 and 1950 prices, "and would be interested in exchanging price .information, 2 a Second akaase s The deadline for completing this phase is 1 August 1952 for all branches except 14/C, and 29 August 1952 for 1 /C0 The substantive contributions by the analysts will consist of the following's (a) Estimates of Soviet output of individual products for each year from 1927/28 through 1951. For those intermediate years in which no estimates are available the use of interpolated figures is suggested. Because A/EC already has extensive data on the period through 1935, analysts should consult with A/EC before doing e;earch on the early period0 (b) Estimates on Satellite and Chinese economic activity, Although the main interest in this study is .the USSR., estimates of production by Satellite and Chinese sources should be included ,and differentiated if they comprise a significant portion of the total, 30 Third Phases After output estimates have bosn furnished by D/h?~i analysts,, A/l7C will use the submitted materials to construct indices of output, The various tiaee series will be plotted to provide a basis for extrapolating production trsnds,> The extrapolation procesr will require extensive cons,tiltation The list of products to be covered will be issued under separate cover. SSE 5L. Responsibility for determining the amount of effort which should be devoted to ' input analysis rests with Chief, fl/Mn Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79-01157A000200100018-6