GAINS IN TRADE, EXPRESSED IN DOLLARS, WHICH MIGHT FOLLOW FROM THE VIRTUAL ELIMINATION OF ALL CONTROLS ON TRADE WITH THE BLOC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79-01203A000200250002-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 30, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP79-01203A000200250002-5
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GAINS IR TRADE, EXPRESSED IN DOLLARS, WH[CH MIGHT FOLWW
The elimination of trade controls against the Soviet Bloc for all
coniriodities, except arms and atomic energy materials, might result in
an annual increase of Free World exports to the Bloc of as much as $350
million, About $150 million of this increase would result from the
rtal.axation of the differential controls against China, However, if the
United States maintained its unilateral controls, the increase in trade
attributable solely to the differential China controls would be in the
neighborhood of $60 million assuming there were no significant extension
of Western long-team credits,
The increased trade resulting from the elimination of virtually
all controls,, though amounting to about 2 5 percent of the present level
of Free Vbrld exports to the Soviet Bloc, would be very small in relation
to total Free World trade., Such an increase is too small to be of sig-
nificant economic benefit to the Free World as a whole; although to a
number of business firms, particularly in Japan, this improvement in
trade would be important.
Since the imposition of trade controls, the Soviet Bloc has continued
to develop a rapidly expanding capability to export many commodities in
categories similar to those being controlled by the Free World, While
Bloc imports of industrial equipment, chemicals and petroleum products
remained relatively constant during 195356, Bloc exports of such goods
have increased very substantially during the same period from a low
initial levels Although Bloc trade with the West is relatively smalls the
Bloc has a rich natural resource base comparable to that of other major
industrial states and it is now supplying some of the industrial require
ments of Western countries,
The elimination of virtually all trade controls would probably lead
to some increase in total Bloc purchases, particularly of certain metals,
ships, electronics and other complex industrial equipment. Bloc demand
for such complex industrial. equipment would be confined to relatively few
categories since most of it is not included in the relatively narrow
range now effectively embargoed by the West.
The relative self-sufficiency of the Bloc's economy is the result
of years of Soviet policy directed toward autarky stimulated to some
extent by over five years of Western trade controls. If the Bloc chose
to revise this policy, it could generate and pay for an increase in
imports from the West of as much as one billion dollars annually without
adverse and possibly with beneficial effect on the Blocts other long-range
economic plans. Such a change in policy could be adopted by the Bloc
within the pattern of present Free World trade controls. However, it
is not considered likely that the Bloc would in fact change its policy,
of limited trade with the Free World even if virtually all trade controls
were eliminated, except possibly as it might find it desirable to do so
for political reasons,
30 Januar^lr 1956
Approved For Release 2000/05/30 : CIA-RDP79-01203A000200250002-5
*NSC Declassification/Release Instructions On File*