ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 49
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 29, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
ER EIW 77-039
29 September 1977
Copy No
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29 September 1977
United Kingdom: Balance of Payments Swings into Surplus . . ... . . . . .
1
London's anti-inflation efforts and North Sea oil have led to a dramatic
improvement in Britain's international payments position.
China: Harvest Growth May Lag Population for Second Year . . . . . . . .
4
The 1977 grain harvest is unlikely to significantly exceed the 285 million
tons produced in 1976 because of a combination of drought and flood.
US Generally Maintains Position in Non-OPEC LDC Markets . . . . . . . .
8
Although in value terms the United States lost out to other Big Seven
exporters between first half 1976 and first half 1977, in real terms it
increased or maintained its market share for manufactured goods in most
cases.
OPEC: Terms of Trade Remain Favorable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The 1977 oil price hikes, at a minimum, will compensate most OPEC
member states for the rise in import prices this year.
Copper Market: Gloomy Outlook for Producers . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Prices are unlikely to strengthen during the remainder of 1977 and early
1978, with demand remaining sluggish and large stocks overhanging the
market.
Notes
North-South Dialogue: LDCs Push Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
OE& Shipbuilding Discussions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Soviets Seek Onshore Fishing Facilities in New Zealand . . . . . . . . 20
South Korea: Import Liberalization Policy-a Facade . . . . . . . . . 21
i
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UNITED KINGDOM: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SWINGS INTO SURPLUS
The British balance of payments has improved dramatically this year, thanks to
London's anti-inflation efforts and North Sea oil. Renewed confidence in sterling
has brought a sharp turnaround in net capital flows. Official foreign reserves rose
from $4 billion at yearend 1976 to $15 billion at the end of August. Foreign and
domestic observers share serious doubts as to how well the British will use the
respite provided by the oil bonanza. The easing of balance-of-payments problems
furnishes another opportunity to seriously address underlying economic issues,
notably the overdue modernization of the industrial sector. Britain so far has failed
to take full advantage of the payments benefits from North Sea gas.
Current Account Surplus in Sight
The current account should be in the black by yearend 1977. Rising oil
production is rapidly eliminating the deficit on oil trade, which topped $7 billion in
1976. In first half 1977, the oil trade deficit was cut by more than $1 billion from
first half 1976.
1
970-73 1974 197
5
1976 1976' 1977'
A
A
nnual
verage
1st Half 1st Half
Exports, F.O.B....
$23.7 38.5 43
.1
45.7 22.6 26.3
Imports, F.O.B...
25.5 50.7 50
.2
52.2 25.3 29.1
Trade Balance...
-1.8 -12.2 -7
.1
-6.5 -2.7 -2.8
Services ................
2.5 4.3 3
.4
3.8 1.8 1.7
Current account
balance ...........
0.7 -7.9 -3
.7
-2.7 -0.9 -1.1
The non-oil trade balance worsened from a $1 billion surplus in first half 1976
to a $200 million deficit in first half 1977. Part of the deterioration stemmed from
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelli ence Weekly are
welcome. For the text, they may be directed to of the
Office of Economic Research, or the conorni n Ica ors, to
of OER,
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sharp increases in the prices of imported foodstuffs and basic materials. In addition,
the trade surplus in manufactures declined. Imports of finished manufactures were
up 17 percent in the first half, while exports rose only 7 percent.
Britain's surplus on invisibles has remained flat this year. It oftentimes has been
big enough to offset a sizable deficit on trade. Gross earnings from invisibles are
running about 50 percent of earnings from merchandise exports.
Within the invisibles account, Britain is posting a substantial increase in its
surplus on tourism. Last year's depreciation of the pound and the nationwide
activities associated with the Queen's Silver Jubilee figured in the $500 million gain
from first half 1976 to first half 1977. Depreciation of the pound and a decline in
real personal income explain sluggishness in overseas spending by Britons.
Turnaround in Capital Flows
In contrast to a deficit of $3.6 billion in first half 1976, Britain posted a capital
account surplus (including errors and omissions) of $6.4 billion in the first six
months of this year. The improvement reflected renewed foreign confidence in the
pound and a regulation adopted last November prohibiting banks from providing
sterling financing for third-country trade.
United Kingdom: Balance of Payments
United Kingdom: Changes in Foreign Government
1970-73
Annual
1976
1977'
average
1974
1975
1976
1st Half
1st Half
balance ........ .........
0.7
-7.9
-3.7
-2,7
-1.3
-1.5
Investment and other
capital flows 2 .........
1.0
3.8
0.8
-4.1
-3.7
4.0
Errors and omissions...
-0.3
0.3
-0.4
.2
0.1
2.4
Balance for official
financing .... .........
1.4
' Not seasonally adjusted,
Including capital transfers
in 1973 and 1974.
The rundown of foreign
sterling balances in 1976 was re-
versed in first half 1977. Official
sterling reserves rose by $326
million in the first quarter. Al-
though these reserves fell by
$674 million in the second quar-
ter, foreign governments made
Sterling Holdings
1971.......................
L7
1975......................
-1.2
1972 .......................
10.9
1976.....: .....,.
- 2.6
1973 ......... .........
0.2
1976 1st Half ....
- 1.9
1974 ......... .........
2.2
1977 1st Half ..,.
-0.3
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offsetting purchases of British bonds denominated in foreign currencies. Private
sterling balances rose $1.4 billion from mid-1976 to mid-1977.
Investment flows contributed to improvement in the capital account balance.
British private investment overseas declined in the January-June period; at the same
time, foreign investment in both the British private sector and in British Government
securities increased. The increased foreign investment in the private sector reflects a
continued high level of investment in the North Sea and a sharp rise in portfolio
investment.
Promising Prospects
With flows of North Sea oil on the rise, the British current account should
remain in the black for some time. We expect a near balance this year and a $3
billion surplus in 1978. Current account transactions related to North Sea oil-
imports of oil field goods and services, production of oil for import substitution or
export, and repatriation of oil company earnings-will yield increasing net gains for
Britain.
Optimism surrounding North Sea Oil
North Sea oil should be temper- Billion US $
ed by Britain's experience with 1976 .................................................... -0.2
North Sea gas. The British failed 19771 ................................................... 2.5
to take advantage of the compar- 19781 ................................................... 5.0
ative easing of their international Projected.
financial situation to turn gov-
ernment energies to the modernization of the industrial sector and the raising of
labor productivity.
Gas deliveries from the southern sector of the North Sea began in March 1967
and reached nearly 4.1 billion cubic feet per day in 1976 (equivalent to 730,000 b/d
of oil, worth about $3.7 billion dollars at current oil prices). Gas output is expected
to rise further as production starts in the northern sector fields.
While some portion of the natural gas has gone to replace domestic coal, much
has been substituted for imported oil. Official British estimates put the current
account benefits of North Sea gas at more than $10 billion for the three-year period
1974-76.
The balance on non-oil trade should improve in second half 1977, with import
growth slowing and export growth moderately high. Imports may have been pushed
up in early 1977 by deliveries on speculative import orders triggered by last year's
anticipation of a drop in sterling.
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UK: Current Account Impact of
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As for non-oil trade next year, British businessmen have expressed concern
about their competitive position in world markets in light of the recent firming of
the pound and the termination of formal pay guidelines. If inflation continues
higher in Britain than in most other industrial countries and North Sea oil keeps the
pound strong, the non-oil trade balance is bound to weaken. Continued labor unrest
stemming from confrontations over pay claims would disrupt production, slowing
exports and encouraging imports.
The surplus on invisibles seems likely to hold near the present level through
next year. The travel account and net earnings from construction work overseas
should remain strong. On the other hand, growth in the earnings of foreign oil
companies operating in the North Sea will act as an offset. Furthermore, net
transfers abroad probably will rise because of a scheduled increase in the British
contribution to the European Community.
The capital account surplus probably will decline over the next 18 months. The
ban on sterling financing of third-country trade has produced its one-time gain, and
the inflow of foreign investment in government securities should decline. Although
no massive capital outflows are in prospect, the situation could change quickly if the
government caves in to worker demands for wage hikes. A wage explosion probably
would lead to an outflow of "hot money" and a buildup of unfavorable leads and
lags in commercial payments.
CHINA: HARVEST GROWTH MAY LAG POPULATION
FOR SECOND YEAR
The 1977 PRC grain harvest is unlikely to significantly exceed the 285 million
tons produced in 1976, and thus may not keep pace with population growth
for the second consecutive year. In the north, a period of general drought during the
winter and spring was followed by excessive rainfall and widespread flooding and
waterlogging. Drought reduced the production of winter wheat, and the shortfall
was not made up by the early rice crop. Prospects for the fall harvest are mixed;
although output will probably increase over 1976, the gain will do little more than
compensate for early losses. The Chinese have purchased 7 million tons of grain for
delivery in 1977, compared with 2 million tons in 1976 and 3 million tons in 1975.
The Drought
China suffered a severe drought in late 1976 and early 1977. In the hardest hit
areas, grain rations and controls over population movements were tightened. Cadres,
army personnel, and white collar workers were mobilized to carry water, sometimes
over long distances. The effects of the drought were mitigated by these
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labor-intensive methods and by the irrigation systems, which have expanded steadily
over the past 15 years.
Winter Wheat
Winter wheat, which accounts for 15 to 20 percent of total annual grain
output, took the full brunt of the drought-with output dropping one-tenth, or 4
million to 5 million tons. The dry weather coincided with both the location and
growing period of this crop.
The various parts of the North China Plain, China's main winter wheat
production area, suffered in differing degrees. Hopeh, Honan, and Shantung
provinces, which produce almost one-third of the winter wheat, were dry until the
end of April. Wheat stands were observed to be generally good in irrigated areas,
which cover nearly one-half the plain, but yields were cut severely in nonirrigated
fields. Outside the plain, the wheat crop in the mountainous region to the west
incurred very severe damage, while production in the south was little affected by the
drought.
Early Rice
The Chinese claim that national production of early rice in 1977 equaled the
record set in 1976. Even so, the crop was a disappointment to them. Although they
report the sown area was up slightly, it would have been higher if it were not for the
drought. In fact, several provinces have stressed the importance of bringing in
bumper late rice harvests to compensate for the lower than desired early rice crops.
Fall Harvest Prospects
The fall harvest, including late and intermediate rice as well as coarse grains,
will determine whether increases in food production will match population growth
in 1977. The fall grain harvest-which normally accounts for about 65 percent of
total annual output, including soybeans and tubers-will probably be larger, but not
by much. An increase of 3 percent over the 1976 fall harvest is needed to achieve
the same annual total as in 1976-claimed by one Chinese official to be 285 million
tons. An increase of 5 percent in the late harvest is needed to produce an overall
1.5-percent increase in the food supply; that is, to stay even with population growth.
The biggest problem so far this fall is in the North China Plain, where about
one-half of the coarse grain is grown.* Abnormally wet conditions prevailed in the
plain from the end of June until the first part of August. Flooding and waterlogging
varied by region and were particularly bad in Hopei Province. The wet weather is
almost certainly causing some decline in coarse grain output in the area. These losses
presumably are being made up in part by the planting of quick-maturing catch crops.
*Coarse grain (which includes corn, sorghum, and millet) and tubers normally account for about 25 to 30
percent of total grain output.
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CHINA: 1977 Winter Wheat Crop
DROUGHT AFFECTED AREAS (OCTOBER-APRIL)
IMPORTANT WI ITER WHEAT REGIONS
(OCTOBER-JUNE) J
574002-,9-77
(543385)
Kwangtung
Sea }
East
Chekian'L China
.1 South China Sea
Gulf
of
Tonkin
/Heilun~kiang
To Reking
Hope SOUTH
Po Ha, KOREA
Tientsin Yellow
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The late rice harvest should be much improved over 1976. This year late rice
was transplanted earlier and all the major growing provinces have expressed hopes
for a good harvest. Intermediate rice should also do well. Growing conditions in
Szechwan, the largest producer of single-cropped rice, are much improved over
1976.
In the northeast the environment for fall crops has also improved over last year.
Although the drought lingered in the Manchurian Plain during early summer, an
above-average rainfall since then has more than compensated for the early dryness.
Cotton
During July and August the Chinese press stressed the importance of cotton
production without revealing how well the crop was doing. Because of this year's
unfavorable weather, we expect a slight decrease in production. This would be the
second year of decline in the cotton crop since 1975 when 2.4 million tons of
ginned cotton were produced.
Impact on Trade
Since November 1976 the PRC has purchased 11.7 millions tons of wheat for
delivery through July 1978. Seven million tons will be delivered during calendar year
1977-a new record for wheat imports and close to the record grain imports
(including corn) of 7.6 million tons in 1973.
The Chinese bought large
quantities of wheat this year
largely because of the reduced
winter wheat harvest and the
poor fall harvest last year. In
addition, probably because of
low world prices, the Chinese
imported wheat to replenish
grain stocks, drawn down in
1975-76 to alleviate balance-
of-payments problems.
Imports of other agricul-
tural products, including sugar,
soybeans, and cotton, also are
up. These include a purchase of
178,000 bales of cotton from
the United States, the first Chi-
nese purchase of US agricul-
tural commodities since 1974.
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US GENERALLY MAINTAINS POSITION IN NON-OPEC LDC MARKETS
The assessment of recent US export performance in non-OPEC LDC* markets
depends on whether the issue is the impact on the US balance of payments or on
jobs in the manufacturing sector. In value terms, the United States lost a substantial
share (three percentage points) of this market to other Big Seven exporters (mainly
Japan) between first half 1976 and first half 1977. In real terms, the United States
has increased or maintained its share of the import market for manufactured goods
in 12 of its 18 largest non-OPEC LDC markets, including Brazil and Mexico.
This striking difference in performance, depending on how performance is
measured, stems mainly from three factors:
? Price and exchange rate movements have inflated trade in value terms
during this period. This factor alone accounts for one of the three
percentage points lost in market share by the United States.
? US sales are heavily concentrated in the Latin American market, where
the volume of imports has declined. In contrast, the Japanese sell more
than two-thirds of their LDC-destined goods to Asian countries where
markets expanded sharply in 1976-77.
? US exports of agricultural products fell 1 I percent in volume terms
because of generally more favorable crops in several major LDC markets.
Thus total export figures :mask a relatively solid performance of US
manufactures in this period.
The LDC Market
The non-OPEC LDC import market has lost its vigor in recent years. After
climbing a rapid 8 percent per year from 1970 through 1974, import volume held
steady in 1975 and has since increased at a moderate 4-percent annual rate.
Individual countries have grown at widely varying rates. The Far Eastern countries,
rebounding quickly from the global recession of 1974-75, have again become a
rapidly expanding market. They have been joined in the growth group by several
mid-East countries that have benefited from substantial infusions of OPEC funds. In
contrast, the import volume for most major Latin American countries has either
fallen or leveled off as governments have undertaken austerity measures to lessen
trade deficits and inflationary pressures. Several South Asian countries have cut their
import volume because of their excellent grain harvests and increased fertilizer
production.
In 1976, non-OPEC LDC imports stood at $122 billion. This amount includes
purchases by roughly 110 LDCs, with 20 accounting for 70 percent of the total
transactions and 10 for one-half.
*For the purpose of this article, the non-OPEC LDCs are the non-Communist countries excluding the OECD
countries, OPEC member countries, Israel, and South Africa.
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The seven leading non-Communist developed countries-the United States,
Japan, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada-provide
more than half of the non-OPEC LDC imports. Intra LDC-trade share accounts for
15 percent of total LDC shipments, in Non-OPEC LDCs: Share of Imports, by Supplier,
part because of the value of oil trade 1976
between the LDC oil refining centers
and the other LDCs.
Big Seven ............................................................ 53.7
Trends in Market Shares United States ............................................. 20.7
Japan .......................................................... 12.5
France ........................................................ 6.1
Our examination of competition West Germany .......................................... 6.0
in the non-OPEC LDC market focuses United Kingdom ....................................... 4.6
on the export performances of the Big Italy ............................................................ 2.3
Seven countries. More recent informa- Canada ......""""'........ 1.5
Other developed ............................................... 9.4
tion is available for this group, and OPEC ..........................................
....................... 17.7
they account for more than two-thirds Intra non-OPEC LDC ...................................... 15.4
of non-oil sales to the LDCs. For Communist ......................................................... 3.8
comparative purposes, the non-OPEC
LDC market was defined as the sum of Big Seven exports to these countries.
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The United States and Japan outperformed the other members of the Big Seven
between the early 1970s and 1976, whether exports are analyzed in value or volume
terms. France did moderately well, while the other four all lost market shares. The
United Kingdom, which had almost no increase in the physical volume of its
exports, did especially poorly, losing nearly 3 percentage points over the period.
A different picture develops when we examine the most recent period-first
half 1977 against first half 1976. In value terms, Japanese exports climbed 26
percent compared with a 2 percent rise for the United States. As a result, the US
market share dropped by 3 percentage points and the Japanese share rose by a
similar amount.
When dollar price changes are eliminated, the disparities narrow considerably.
In volume terms, Japanese exports grew 8 percent while US sales fell 4 percent.*
This large reduction in the differential between US and Japanese rates (as compared
with value results) reflects the differences among the Seven in the combined
movements of currency exchange rates and domestic prices. For example, Japanese
dollar export prices rose 17.5 percent, West German, 10.8 percent, and US, 5.5
percent, between first half 1976 and first half 1977.
During this period the US Big Seven: Trends in Exports to Non-OPEC LDCs
market share in volume terms fell
two percentage points-a large re-Peacentane Point
Change in Market
duction in a one-year period. Percent Change' Share'
Japan meantime gained 1.6 per- Value Volume value volume
centage points while the other
country changes were not signifi- . ..................... 6 -4 -3.2 -2.6
Japan n ..................... 26 8 3.2 1.6
cant. Two factors predominate in west Germany ..... 12 2 0.1 0
the loss of US market shares: (a) France . ............ 10 4 0.2 03
the geographic distribution of the UK ......................... 10 -1 -0.1 -0.2
Big Seven-LDC trade and (b) im- Italy ....................... 19 5 0.3 0.2
proved harvests in many foreign Canada .................. 8 9 -0.1 0.2
countries. ' First half of 1977 over first half of 1976.
*Volume data should be used cautiously, as they depend on the accuracy of the price data, which are subject to
inherent calculation problems. For example, changes in sophistication and quality of capital goods exports are
rarely, if ever, captured by price indexes. Thus, changes in the volume market share of less than 0.5 percent are
not likely to be meaningful.
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Geographic Mix
The US regional market share losses are less ominous than the overall US
decline suggests. This disparity is the result of great differences in regional import
growth rates. More than one-half of the US sales are to the shrinking Latin American
market. Mexico alone accounted for 19 percent of US sales; comparing first half
1976 and first half 1977, its import volume plummeted 24 percent. Thus, the
United States suffered a severe loss in export sales in spite of a small increase in
market share. In sharp contrast to the US situation, the Japanese direct more than
two-thirds of their non-OPEC LDC exports to the rapidly expanding Asian market.
Accordingly, even though Japan's share of the Asian market slipped, its absolute
export sales to this growth area substantially increased.
Big Seven: Exports to Non-OPEC LDCs, by Region, 1976
Percent
Latin America Middle
Total Mexico Asia East Africa
United States ......... 52.7 18.9 35.1 7.0 5.2
Japan ...................... 21.3 2.1 68.7 5.7 4.3
West Germany ..... 35.0 5.6 26.4 18.6 20.0
France ................... 21.0 2.8 16.0 11.2 51.8
United Kingdom .. 24.6 3.6 33.6 20.0 21.8
Italy ....................... 31.4 3.8 16.2 25.1 27.3
Canada .................. 54.4 11.3 33.5 3.2 8.9
A measure of the impact of varying growth rates in the four major LDC regions
can be determined by assuming no loss of US market shares in each region between
first half 1976 and the same 1977 period. Under this assumption the US would have
lost 1.2 percentage points in the aggregate LDC market compared with the actual
2.0 percentage point decline. The drop in US sales to Latin America greatly
outweighs increases in the other areas. Thus regional differences in export trade are
responsible for 40 percent of the drop in the US market share.
On an individual country basis, the US market share declined in only eight of
the 18 most important non-OPEC LDC markets (excluding oil-refining centers).
Agricultural Impact
US agricultural exports accounted for 20 percent of sales to the non-OPEC
LDCs in 1976. Between first half 1976 and first half 1977, these exports fell 11
percent in volume due to generally more favorable crops in the LDCs.
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Big Seven: Change in Export Volume Market
Shares to Non-OPEC LDCs 1
Percentage Point
United
States
Japan
West
Germany
France
United
Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Non-OPEC LDC
-2.0
1.6
0
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.2
Latin America
-1.4
2.0
0
0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
Argentina
6.1
2.7
-3.7
-6.8
0.6
0
1.2
Brazil
-0.8
0.1
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.2
-1.6
Chile
-3.0
3.3
3.2
-6.8
1.5
0
1.6
Colombia
-1.5
2.7
1.3
-0.8
-0.2
-1.8
0.4
Mexico
0.4
1.9
-1.0
0.2
-1.8
-0.4
0.5
Peru
1.3
1.4
-1.6
-0.6
0.1
-1.7
1.1
Middle East
-0.7
1.3
-1.3
-1.0
-0.3
1.7
0.3
Syria
-15.0
3.6
2.0
2.9
-0.4
6.8
0
Egypt
6.6
-1.3
-2.5
-1.0
-2.1
-0.5
0.8
Asia
0.7
-1.2
0.1
-0.2
0
0.1
0.7
Taiwan
5.1
-4.8
-0.9
0.2
-0.3
0
0.7
Hong Kong
1.9
-1.6
-0.7
0
-0.2
0.4
0.3
India
-9.6
5.0
2.5
-2.2
4.9
-0.2
-0.6
South Korea
0.5
1.1
0.3
-0.4
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
Malaysia
-0.3
1.2
0.1
-0.7
0.9
-0.2
0.8
Pakistan
-9.4
3.5
1.4
-2.6
0.6
2.5
3.9
Philippines
1.8
-5.4
-0.4
-0.3
1.5
-0.8
3.6
Singapore
3.6
-7.3
0.9
1.7
0
0.7
0.4
Thailand
3.6
-2.9
0
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
0.4
Africa
-1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
-2.5
0.1
0
Morocco
-3.2
2.3
-1.0
2.8
-0.9
-0.2
0.5
First half 1977 over first half 1976.
In three countries where US agricultural sales fell precipitously and where the
overall US market is down-India, Brazil, and Morocco-the US market share for
manufactures rose. In one case-Peru-the opposite happened; that is, an increase in
agricultural sales hid a declining US market share for manufactures. In only six
major non-OPEC LDC importing countries did US manufactures lose market
position. The largest of these countries, Colombia, is the ninth ranking non-OPEC
LDC market for the United States. The other five-Chile, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru,
and Syria-are near the bottom in terms of importance to the United States of the
18 countries examined.
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OPEC's 1977 oil price hikes, at a minimum, will compensate most member
states for higher import prices.* Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
could be exceptions because they did not charge the full oil price increase until
midyear. Even so, any terms-of-trade losses by these two would be slight.
A 10-percent oil price rise effective 1 January 1978 probably would lead to an
appreciable improvement in OPEC terms of trade next year since import prices are
not expected to rise as fast.
The quadrupling of OPEC oil prices in 1973/74 came at a time when ram-
pant global inflation was coming under control. The enormous oil price hikes
1978
1st at,.
*OPEC import prices are based on the calculated unit values of goods sold by the Big Seven counrdries. Evidence
from indexes based on contract prices, available on a limited basis, indicates that unit values may overstate the
actual price rise in goods exported to OPEC countries. In contrast, oil export prices are much more accurately
known. We believe that the terms-of-trade numbers used, if they err, understate the improvement in the OPEC
position.
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rekindled inflation. OPEC members soon found that price increases on their imports
were eroding the real value of their greatly enhanced export earnings. From
mid-1974 until September 1975, OPEC terms of trade averaged about 90 percent of
the early 1974 level. Between September 1975 and the end of 1976, terms of trade
improved (fluctuating between 95 and 105) in response to further increases in oil
prices, a reduced pace in industrial country inflation, and an appreciation of the
dollar against other currencies (oil producers are paid in dollars). This last factor was
especially important for purchases from Japan and West Germany, which together
supply more than a quarter of OPEC imports.
The 1977 Situation
Oil price increases in 1977 will likely keep OPEC terms of trade near the early
1974 level, that is, at the level resulting from the 1974 oil price increases. OPEC
dollar-based import prices rose 9 to 10 percent in the first three quarters of 1977
compared with the same 1976 period. Nearly half the increase is attributable to the
appreciation of major currencies against the dollar.
The situation for OPEC in the final quarter is expected to improve as a
consequence of the slower rise in wholesale prices in major developed
countries-assuming no further major appreciation of the yen and mark against the
dollar. For the year as a whole, OPEC dollar-based import prices will probably rise 8
to 9 percent compared with 1976.
The 1 January 1977 10-percent price hike by 11 of the 13 OPEC members thus
will compensate for the higher import prices. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which
increased oil prices by 5 percent in January and a similar amount in July, could face
a slight deterioration in their 1977 terms of trade-perhaps 1 to 2 percent.
In addition to the disparity in oil price movements, other "factors have caused
small differences in terms-of-trade trends among OPEC states. They include vari-
ations in the mix of imported products and the choice of suppliers. For example,
countries buying more goods from the United States in 1977 did better than those
that depended more on Japan and West Germany. Between mid-1976 and mid-1977,
US export prices to OPEC rose 5.5 percent and French 2.2 percent, while Japanese
and German export prices rose 17.5 percent and 10.8 percent in dollar terms. Thus,
Ecuador and Venezuela, dependent on the United States for more than half of their
imports, and Algeria and Gabon, traditional French markets, improved their terms
of trade relative to Indonesia, which depends mainly on Japanese goods.
Outlook 1978
At its meeting in Caracas next December, OPEC probably will again raise
prices, perhaps by another 10 percent effective 1 January 1978. Its Economic
Commission Board-whose findings are generally moderated in most or all cartel
price decisions-claims that world prices have increased 17.6 percent since the
beginning of 1977 and that the appreciation of major currencies against the dollar is
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further eroding OPEC purchasing power. As in the past, the Board is greatly
exaggerating the price rise of OPEC imports.
Saudi Arabia is far less likely than last year to challenge other OPEC members
and cause another price split. Saudi threats to rapidly expand oil output to bring
down prices of other OPEC countries failed earlier this year and would carry little
weight at Caracas. Indeed, Riyadh has technical problems of undetermined severity
at major oilfields that may reduce its flexibility in output decisions. We believe that,
if pushed, the Saudis will accede to a price hike approximately equal to 1977
inflation and the decline in the value of the dollar-on the order of 10 percent.
Present indications are that next year dollar import prices will rise less than 10
percent. Overall demand in most industrial countries remains sluggish, and any
revival resulting from recently announced stimulation programs is not expected to
bring growth back to the postwar trend line. Agricultural prices are not expected to
increase substantially in view of record crops and ample stocks. Currency
movements also probably will play less of a role in pushing up dollar-based imports
than this year. Under these conditions, OPEC will improve its terms of trade with a
10-percent hike.
Copper prices are unlikely to strengthen during the remainder of 1977 and
early 1978, with large stocks continuing to overhang the market.
Unless economic growth in developed countries exceeds current low-key
projections, copper output will continue to outpace consumption. Stocks will rise
above the present record level of more than 2 million tons, putting additional
downward pressure on prices. Although US producers can be expected to trim
output further, LDCs will maintain production at near capacity. Spurred by sagging
foreign exchange earnings, LDC producers will press even harder in upcoming UN
Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) meetings for stabilization
agreements to raise prices. The "study" approach favored by consuming
nations-but viewed by LDCs as a delaying tactic-could come under heavy attack as
early as the next UNCTAD meeting on copper in November.
World copper prices experienced a mild recovery early this year after a weak
1976 fourth quarter, rising to a spot high of 70 cents a pound in mid-March and
posting a 68-cent average for the month. The rise was short lived; however, the price
runup being based almost entirely on speculative activity on the London Metal
Exchange (LME). Speculators had been bullish on three counts:
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? Expectations that the new US Administration would adopt expan-
sionary economic policies.
? Prospects for a prolonged strike in the US copper industry.
? Fighting in southern Africa, which threatened to cut off copper exports
from that region.
None of these elements developed as expected. The US economy failed to grow
at the rate anticipated early in the year; the US copper strike lasted only a few
weeks instead of the usual three months or longer; and the invasion of Shaba
Province in Zaire interrupted copper shipments only briefly. When it became clear
that a tight market would not develop, speculators ceased buying, and LME prices
tumbled to 51.6 cents in mid-August, only 0.3 cents above the lowest point since
early 1973. The average for July was 25 percent below July 1976.
A Three-Year Stock Buildup
Since the end of the 1973 boom when copper consumption exceeded
production by 250,000 tons, the Free World copper industry has been plagued by
weak demand and overproduc-
tion. In the last three years, Free World Copper Output,
production outstripped con- Consumption, and Stocks
sumption by more than 1.6 mil- Million Tons
11011 LUns, increasing rree vvorlu
copper stocks to more than 2
million tons by yearend 1976.
The accumulation of large
stocks is attributable to (a) the
global recession and the slow
pace of recovery on the demand
side and (b) substantial addi-
tions to productive capacity
and the unwillingness of major
LDC exporters to cut output .on
the supply side.
Entering 1974, Free World
producers expected copper de-
mand would equal or even ex-
ceed 1973's record of almost 7
million tons and boosted pro-
duction. By midyear, the econ-
omies of the industrial nations
had begun to falter, yet copper
output surged ahead as con-
sumers and merchants replen-
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ished stocks at bargain prices-prices dropped from $1.52 on 1 April to 92 cents on
1 July. As a result, production for the year reached a record high of almost 7 million
tons, nearly 9.5 million tons more than was consumed.
Supply inelasticities became a serious problem as the economic recession
deepened in 1975. Whereas copper consumption fell by a startling 1 million tons-to
less than 5.5 million tons, the lowest level in seven years-producers cut output by
only 0.7 million tons. Most of the cuts were made by US and Japanese firms.
Production in 1975 totaled 6.3 million tons, 0.8 million tons more than was
consumed. This addition to stocks, which had been more than replenished the
previous year, raised holdings to 1.9 million tons, nearly three times normal levels.
The economic upturn in the developed countries in 1976 provided only a brief
respite for the copper industry. Copper demand was strong in the first half of the
year as the rate of economic growth of the Big Seven increased 6.6 percent over
second half 1975. In second half 1976, however, economic growth tailed off, and
for the year as a whole consumption totaled a disappointing 6.4 million tons-nearly
1 million tons above 1975 but 0.5 million tons below 1973'srecord level. Meanwhile,
in response to improved demand and higher prices in early 1976, production
rebounded, reaching 6.7 million tons for the year.
Inventories have continued to build in 1977, particularly with the weakening of
demand in the third quarter. Cuts in US output will only slightly reduce the
worldwide glut, and, with prospects poor for a vigorous upturn of the major
economies, stocks are expected again to end the year at record levels. About 40
percent of current stocks are held in LME warehouses by merchants, producers,
consumers, investors, and speculators; 25 percent are in producers' inventories; 20
percent are in consumers' inventories; and the remainder is held by merchants or in
national stockpiles.
A Troubled Industry
The problem of oversupply during periods of weak demand has intensified in
recent years following government takeovers of private firms in the major LDC.
copper-exporting countries. Production cuts in response to weak demand had been
common among private firms. In contrast, LDC governments in making production
decisions emphasize foreign exchange earnings and domestic employment in the
industry. Producers such as Chile, Zambia, Zaire, and Papua New Guinea, which
depend on copper exports for 40 to 80 percent of their foreign exchange earnings,
maintain production and exports at high levels in situations where private firms
would elect to cut back. These four nations account for 40 percent of total mine
output.
The major European nations refine only about one-half their normal
consumption and import the balance, mainly from LDC producers. When European
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demand weakens, LDC exports
of refined copper are shifted to
other markets, primarily to the
LME, further weakening prices.
Because Japanese refiner
costs have risen sharply under a
strict pollution-abatement pro-
gram, low-priced imports are
making inroads in the domestic
market. Last year, for instance,
imports supplied nearly all of the
28 percent rise in Japanese con-
sumption. In spite of production
cuts of about 14 percent since
1974, Japanese inventories have
accumulated and now total close
to 35 percent of annual con-
sumption.
Copper Output by Major Producers, 1976
Thousand Tons
Mine Output
Refined Output
Major Exporters
Chile ......... .........
1,005
632
Canada ....................
724
510
Zambia ....................
709
695
Zaire ........................
445
66'
Peru .........
216
135
Australia... ...............
214
189
Papua New Guinea
177
0
Other Major
Producers
United States ..........
1,462
1,715
Japan ........... .........
82
864
Germany ..... .........
2
447
Belgium ...................
0
458
' Normally about 225,000 tons.
The US copper industry faces a similar situation. In recent years costs have
escalated, largely because of the high cost of pollution abatement controls, and now
are the highest among major Free World refiners. Never very large, US exports have
declined while imports have risen, more than doubling in 1976. These
developments-weak domestic demand, escalating costs, and poor export
demand-have already forced cutbacks in US output. Last year, a number of
obsolescent smelting and refining plants were closed because of the prohibitive cost
of meeting pollution standards. With producer and consumer stocks at alltime highs,
further production cuts are planned at a number of marginal mines and plants. These
actions will be insufficient to halt further accumulation of world stocks.
From the viewpoint of Free World producers, prospects for the rest of this year
are gloomy. Demand is expected to remain close to lackluster third-quarter levels,
and excess production will continue, notwithstanding US cutbacks. Although LME
prices will remain depressed, low-cost producers will continue to operate profitably
close to capacity levels. In all, the year's performance should be similar to 1976
when 6.7 million tons were produced in the Free World and 6.4 million tons were
consumed.
Few signs point to an early upturn in 1978. European consumption is forecast
close to present levels on the assumption that residential construction markets will
remain soft and that restrictive economic policies in some countries will continue.
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According to current indicators, US consumption may increase slightly over 1977.
Production almost certainly will again exceed consumption, especially since even
small improvements in demand will call forth output increases by individual
producers.
The bearish outlook for producers points to even greater pressure by LDCs on
developed nations to agree to UNCTAD-sponsored stabilization measures for buffer
stocks. Whatever the conclusions of the studies agreed to in the August UNCTAD
meetings, the LDCs are increasingly impatient with what they see as delaying tactics
by consuming nations. At the November meetings they no doubt will urge faster
progress toward an international agreement providing for stabilization measures.
Notes
North-South Dialogue: LDCs Push Ahead
The developing countries have followed a tactic of restrained pressure in their
The reconvened session of the 31st UN General Assembly, set up to review
the results of the Conference on International Economic Cooperation (CIEC), lasted
an extra three days without producing a resolution. The LDC representatives arrived
in New York with a much tougher draft resolution than the one they circulated
during the summer. This new version sharply criticized the CIEC results and
proposed timetables for achieving their "new international economic order." The
harsh tone of the revised draft contrasted with the generally low-key tone of the
LDCs in discussions and with the absence of moves to turn disagreement into
confrontation.
An important new development is the redirection of the issue of debt relief to
the UNCTAD. Opposition by LDCs and a lack of support from other developed
countries scuttled US efforts to have the IMF/IBRD Development Committee
undertake a study of LDC debt. The United States and other developed countries
had hoped that such a study would defuse this issue before the UNCTAD ministerial
meeting took it up in March 1978. In the past, they have found UNCTAD a difficult
forum because of LDC voting superiority. Moreover, the UNCTAD Secretariat has
consistently drafted reports and resolutions that many industrialized countries find
wanting in objectivity.
LDC discussions on the Common Fund continue to reveal disagreements within
the Group of 77 (G-77). Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina reportedly are disturbed
because the G-77 working group produced a suggested draft agreement on the
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Common Fund rather than a working paper. Common Fund issues will be thrashed
out in regional and G-77 caucuses during October to construct a unified position in
time for the November negotiations.
OECD: Shipbuilding Discussions
The current meetings of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) Shipbuilding Working Party in Paris are designed to
coordinate adjustments to the decline in the ship order backlog, from a worldwide
peak of 133.4 million Gross Registered Tons (GRT) in March 1974 to 45.8 million
tons (GRT) at the end of June 1977. The West Europeans are arguing that price
increases and export curbs imposed by Tokyo in February have not sufficiently
trimmed Japan's market share. The Japanese believe they may have gone too far.
Japan accounted for 47 percent of world ship production in 1976, down from
50 percent in 1974 and 1975. Its share of orders from OECD countries has also
fallen off, amounting to about three-fourths of the total in first half 1977, compared
with nearly 90 percent in fourth quarter 1976. Japan has lost ground to the
Europeans in terms of tonnage on order because cancellations-mostly for
tankers-outweighed new orders placed in Japan over the past two years. At the end
of March, European yards had nearly 19 months of work on order, compared with
about 13 months of work booked with Japan's shipyards.
The Japanese are concerned that recent increases of 25 percent or more in state
subsidies offered by France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the
United Kingdom on LDC ship contracts-plus increased incentives for domestic
orders-will swing the balance in Europe's favor. Both groups are alarmed at the
continued growth of ship production in non-OECD nations. South Korea and
Taiwan have low labor costs and modern yards. Brazil and Poland, among others,
have the assurance of orders from their growing state fleets.
A series of OECD discussions of retrenchment in shipbuilding over the last 18
months have produced little agreement to date on market shares. Exchanges of
formatted data on orders won, canceled, and on hand, however, have substantially
reduced the misunderstanding that nearly precipitated West European restrictions on
Japan's ship exports early this year. We foresee continuation of the proliferation of
protectionist programs, which will prolong market adjustment to the surplus of
shipbuilding capacity.
Soviets Seek Onshore Fishing Facilities in New Zealand
New Zealand is considering a Soviet bid to use onshore port and crew-transfer
facilities for the Soviet fishing fleet. As an inducement, the Soviets are holding out
the prospect of continuing their large purchases of agricultural products from New
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Zealand. They have argued that the disparity between Soviet purchases from New
Zealand ($100 million last year) and New Zealand's purchases from the USSR (less
than $4 million) makes it advisable for New Zealand to make some compensatory
gesture.
Wellington, which had turned aside at least three earlier approaches, now
believes circumstances dictate a serious study of the latest proposal. Rather than
depending on sales to the USSR, New Zealand would prefer a guaranteed market in
Japan for its beef and dairy goods. Japan, however, has been unresponsive to New
Zealand's pleas to help production planning through advance-purchase
commitments.
South Korea: Import Liberalization Policy-a Facade
South Korea's long-range import liberalization plan to be announced later this
year reportedly will keep the import control system basically intact. Despite South
Korea's improved balance-of-payments position and pressure from trading partners,
the plan will only appear to ease barriers.
This summer, the government removed or eased restrictions on several minor
commodity imports. Although officials also indicated that a further easing of
barriers would be included in the long-range plan, the government apparently has
adopted a go-slow approach.
South Korea's balance-of-payments position has improved dramatically since
late 1975. A sharp increase in exports and service receipts suggests a current account
surplus this year, compared with a $1.9 billion deficit in 1975 and a $300 million
deficit in 1976. Stepped-up exports to the United States are one of the most
important factors in this improvement.
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Secret
Secret
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Prepared by
The Office of Economic Research
ER El 77-039
29 September 1977
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This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
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1. The Economic Indicators provides up-to-date information on changes in the
domestic and external economic activities of the major non-Communist developed
countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators is updated from press ticker
and Embassy reporting, so that the results are made available to the reader weeks-or
sometimes months-before receipt of official statistical publications. US data are provided
by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators are revised every few months. The most
recent date of publication of source notes is 20 April 1977. Comments and queries
regarding the Economic Indicators are welcomed.
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX: 1970=100, seasonally adjusted
Japan
West Germany
130
120
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United Kingdom
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
'
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
..
3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
United States
AUG 77
-0.6
3.5
5.3
6.7
United Kingdom
JUL 77
2.8
0.4
- 1'.0
8.5
Japan
JUL 77
-0.9
3.8
1.2
0.7
Italy
JUN 77
0.7
4.0
12.2
-7.3
West Germany
JUN 77
1.8
2.2
3.6
-6.6
Canada
JUN 77
0.3
4.1
4.5
1.4
France
JUN 77
3.2
3.6
4.1
--8.0
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UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
United States
Japan
West Germany
b1965-74 AVERAGE
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United Kingdom
Italy (quarterly)
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment In first quarter 1977. Data for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United States
AUG 77
6,926
7,517
6,750
United Kingdom
SEp 77
1,446
1,319
1.353
Japan
JUN 77
1,190
1,120
1,050
Italy
77 II
1,432
NA
1.459
West Germany
AUG 77
1,052
1,049
1,038
Canada
JUL 77
859
751
870
France
AUG 77
1,216
962
1,097
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan, Italy and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
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DOMESTIC PRICES1 INDEX: 1970=100
United States
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United Kingdom
Canada
268
ri3
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Percent
AVERAGE ANNUAL
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Change
f
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
rom
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
rom
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
United States
AUG 77
0.6
8.5
7.2
5.7
United Kingdom
AUG 77
0.9
14.8
20.0
13.4
AUG 77
0.4
6.6
6.6
6.1
AUG 77
0.5
13.9
16.5
6.8
Japan
JUL 77
-0.5
7.7
1.1
-2.6
Italy
JUN 77
0.3
15.8
15.9
6.7
JUL 77
-0.3
10.5
7.7
0.7
AUG 77
0.7
13.2
20.0
9.8
West Germany
JUL 77
0
5.3
2.2
0.3
Canada
JUN 77
-0.2
10.0
9.6
2.2
JUL 77
-0.1
5.6
4.3
3.1
JUL 77
0.9
7.5
8.4
10.3
France
MAR 77
JUL 77
0.9
0.9
8.4
9.1
8.2
10.1
7.6
10.9
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 United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
' Seasonally adjusted.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
' Seasonally adjusted.
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RETAIL SALES'
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
77 11
76 IV
76 IV
77 I
76 IV
76 IV
77 II
77 11
76 IV
75 IV
77 I
76 IV
76 IV
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eurodollars
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year Previous
Quarter Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Commerical paper
Call money
Interbank loans (3 months)
Call money
Sterling interbank loans (3 months)
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
United States Jun 77 -0.2 3.2 4.1 3.3
Japan May 77 -3.8 9.9 2.3 9.5
West Germany Jun 77 0.9 2.4 4.4 -9.8
France Jun 77 7.7 -0.3 1.0 -8.1
United Kingdom Aug 77 0 1.1 - 1.7 9.2
Italy Mar 77 0.2 2.9 -0.3 16.3
Canada Jun 77 -0.7 4.1 -3.7 -8.7
Seasonally adjusted.
r Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) for the United States, Japan, and Canada; hourly wage
rates for others. West German and French data refer to the beginning of the quarter.
Average for latest 3 months compared with that for previous 3 months.
Sep 21
Sep 23
Sep 21
Sep 23
Sep 21
Sep 21
Sep 21
1 Year 3 Months 1 Month
Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
6.00
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier'
Percent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Period Period 1970 Earlier Earlier'
Jul 77
Jun 77
77 II
77 I
Jun 77
May 77
Jun 77
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5 -
EXPORT PRICES
us $
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual G
Average
rowth Rate Since
Per
cent Change
Perc
ent Change
L
M
atest
onth
fro
m Previous
Month
1970
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
L
M
atest
onth
fro
m Previous
Month
1 Year
Earlier I
3 Months
Earlier
United States
J
un 77
-0.4
9.8
5.6
2.5
United States
J
un 77
-0.4
9.8
5.6
2.5
Japan
J
un 77
2.0
10.8
14.9
10.1
Japan
J
un 77
0.4
6.5
4.7
- 1.0
West Germany
J
ul 77
3.5
11.7
12.8
17.0
West Germany
J
ul 77
0.9
4.5
0.5
2.1
France
M
ay 77
0.9
11.3
7.1
3.6
France
M
ay 77
0.6
9.5
12.8
1.3
United Kingdom
A
ug 77
2.9
11.0
13.9
15.7
United Kingdom
A
ug 77
1.9
16.1
16.7
10.1
Italy
A
pr 77
-0.3
11.1
17.4
12.6
Italy
A
pr 77
1.9
16.9
18.5
16.6
Canada
J
un 77
0.1
11.1
8.6
13.0
Canada
J
un 77
-0.7
9.5
5.4
10.3
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Latest
Month
Percent Change
from Previous
Month
1970
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
End of
1 Year 3 Months
Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Jun 77
- 1.4
13.5
7.9
2.1
United
States
Aug 77
19.1
14.5
18.6
19.2
Japan
Jun 77
-0.8
10.9
0.3
-14.8
Japan
Aug 77
17.8
4.1
16.3
17.3
West Germany
Jul 77
0.3
4.4
-0.3
-1.2
West
Germany
Jun 77
35.1
8.8
33.3
34.7
France
May 77
-0.4
10.6
15.4
2.6
France
Jun 77
10.2
4.4
9.6
9.8
United Kingdom
Aug 77
- 1.0
19.3
13.9
1.7
United
Kingdom
Aug 77
14.8
2.8
5.0
9.9
Italy
Apr 77
1.0
21.1
13.7
15.1
Italy
Jul 77
10.5
4.7
6.2
6.8
Canada
Jun 77
0.3
8.6
8.5
7.7
Canada
Jun 77
5.1
4.3
6.0
5.1
United States 2 77 I -4,317 -4,317 540 - 4,857
Japan Aug 77 660 5,321 1,255 4,066
West Germany Jul 77 -546 1,731 1,188 543
France 77 11 -438 -2,101 -2,052 - 50
United Kingdom 77 I -773 -773 -502 -271
Italy 77 I -929 -929 1,413 484
Canada 77 I -1,624 -1,624 -1,911 287
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
' Seasonally adjusted.
Spot Rate
As of 23 Sep 77
BASIC BALANCE '
Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions
Cumulative (Million US $)
Latest
Period Million US $ 1977 1976 Change
United States No longer published 2
Japan Aug 77 260 3,781 1,472 2,309
West Germany Jul 77 -875 -2,039 1,196 -3,234
France 77 I -1,354 - 1,354 -2,015 660
United Kingdom 76 IV -277 N.A. -4,171 N.A.
Italy 76 III 779 N.A. 1,096 N.A.
Canada 77 I -583 -583 882 -1,465
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
,s recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
Statistics, the Department of Commerce no longer publishes a basic balance.
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES'
As of 23 Sep 77
us $
Per Unit 19 Mar 73
1 Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier 16 Sep 77
19 Mar 73
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
16 Sep 77
Japan (yen)
0.0037
-1.42
7.54
1.88
0.05
United States
6.34
2.21
0.26
-0.01
West Germany
0.4296
21.33
6.53
1.12
-0.13
Japan
4.60
10.20
2.07
0.04
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany
26.16
5.91
1.27
-0.04
France (franc)
0.2027
-8.03
-0.76
0.10
-0.21
France
-7.83
-2.69
0.09
-0.16
United Kingdom
1.7427
-29.19
0.50
1.34
0.01
United Kingdom
-28.95
0.88
2.14
0.09
(pound sterling)
Italy
-38.46
-6.67
-0.09
-0.02
Italy (lira)
0.0011
-36.10
-4.88
0.09
-0.09
Canada
-4.43
-9.45
-1.19
0.06
Canada (dollar)
0
9320
-6
59
-9
18
- 1
11
0
05
' Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized countries to
.
.
.
.
.
reflect the competitive impact of exchange rate variations among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD
OPEC 2
Com-
munist
Other
World
Big
Seven
Other
OECD OPEC Y
Com-
munist
Other
UNITED STATES 1
1974 .............
98,507
45,866
15,630
6,723
3,406
26,882
100,218
49,490
9,415
15,636
1,282
24,395
1975 .............
107,592
46,926
16,191
10,765
3,699
30,011
96,140
46,715
8,170
17,083
1,156
23,016
1976 .............
114,997
51,298
17,612
12,567
3,936
29,584
120,677
56,626
9,058
25,017
1,445
28,531
1st Qtr ........
27,360
12,184
4,088
2,751
1,144
7,193
27,319
12,884
2,226
5,570
327
6,312
2d Qtr ........
29,695
13,383
4,496
3,113
1,088
7,615
28,367
14,332
2,242
5,582
372
5,839
3d Qtr ........
27,437
11,944
4,073
3,106
850
7,464
32,452
14,285
2,228
6,952
389
8,598
4th Qtr ........
30,505
13,787
4,955
3,597
854
7,312
32,539
15,125
2,362
6,913
357
7,782
1977
1st Qtr ........
29,454
13,752
4,716
3,136
951
6,899
34,990
15,124
2,566
8,324
366
8,610
2d Qtr ........
31,673
14,282
4,707
3,389
816
8,479
37,907
17,059
2,578
8,673
411
9,186
JAPAN
1974 .............
55,610
18,591
6,862
5,450
4,367
20,340
62,074
18,755
6,219
19,970
3,684
13,446
1975 .............
55,812
16,468
6,091
8,423
5,283
19,547
57,853
16,917
6,083
19,404
3,382
12,067
1976 .............
67,364
22,406
8,588
9,278
5,049
22,043
64,895
17,534
7,777
21,877
2,926
14,781
1st Qtr ........
14,429
4,848
1,827
1,872
1,289
4,593
14,832
4,083
1,696
5,213
671
3,169
2d Qtr ........
16,431
5,402
2,092
2,271
1,348
5,318
15,903
4,347
1,948
5,400
667
3,541
3d Qtr ........
17,542
5,897
2,272
2,476
1,135
5,762
16,818
4,497
2,137
5,406
747
4,031
4th Qtr ........
18,962
6,259
2,397
2,659
1,277
6,370
17,342
4,607
1,996
5,858
841
4,040
1977
1st Qtr ........
17,911
5,848
2,449
2,459
1,409
5,746
17,452
4,717
1,845
6,246
801
3,843
Apr & May .....
13,017
4,404
1,611
1,823
875
4,304
11,988
3,195
1,380
3,925
575
2,913
WEST GERMANY
1974
.............
89,365
30,820
36,431
4,066
9,473
8,575
69,659
23,878
25,504
9,211
5,153
5,913
1975
.............
90,181
28,331
36,406
6,776
10,629
8,039
74,986
27,085
27,761
8,239
5,526
6,375
1976
.............
101,980
33,443
41,811
8,245
10,310
8,171
88,211
31,281
32,632
9,720
6,718
7,860
1st
Qtr ........
23,467
7,918
9,519
1,710
2,430
1,890
20,147
7,130
7,577
2,189
1,502
1,749
2d
Qtr ........
24,570
8,215
10,110
1,838
2,421
1,986
21,571
7,704
8,133
2,223
1,625
1,886
3d
Qtr ........
25,147
8,003
10,272
2,235
2,510
2,127
21,791
7,565
7,894
2,575
1,699
2,058
4th
Qtr ........
28,796
9,307
11,910
2,462
2,949
2,168
24,701
8,883
9,028
2,732
1,891
2,167
1977
1st
Qtr ........
27,804
9,281
11,609
2,307
2,156
2,451
24,084
8,465
8,828
2,578
1,270
2,943
Apr
...........
9,230
3,058
3,849
799
694
830
7,991
2,892
2,949
756
428
966
FRANCE
1974
.............
45,914
19,361
14,854
3,017
2,265
6,417
52,874
22,062
13,620
10,117
1,714
5,361
1975
.............
52,189
19,960
15,454
4,909
3,477
8,389
54,238
23,039
14,350
9,665
2,065
5,119
1976
.............
55,680
22,438
16,081
5,067
3,558
8,536
64,256
27,750
16,894
11,336
2,384
5,892
1st
Qtr ........
13,639
5,524
3,921
1,240
917
2,037
15,529
6,567
4,157
2,818
595
1,392
2d
Qtr ........
14,769
5,911
4,395
1,221
1,059
2,183
16,187
7,149
4,324
2,610
593
1,511
3d
Qtr ........
12,409
4,922
3,446
1,280
729
2,032
14,841
6,431
3,733
2,723
577
1,377
4th
Qtr ........
14,863
6,081
4,319
1,326
853
2,284
17,699
7,603
4,680
3,185
619
1,612
1977
1st
Qtr ........
15,323
6,250
4,540
1,392
847
2,294
17,885
7,494
4,840
3,056
600
1,895
Apr
...........
5,232
2,193
1,569
460
288
722
5,788
2,499
1,543
879
194
673
UNITED
KINGDOM
1974
.............
38,615
11,704
15,544
2,554
1,458
7,355
54,107
18,158
17,968
8,695
1,870
7,416
1975
.............
43,751
12,399
16,310
4,535
1,768
8,739
53,260
18,387
18,370
6,912
1,726
7,865
1976
.............
46,312
14,016
17,492
5,133
1,619
8,052
56,029
19,653
18,732
7,292
2,143
8,209
1st
Qtr ........
11,637
3,415
4,362
1,238
433
2,189
13,641
4,704
4,597
1,824
510
2,006
2d
Qtr ........
11,553
3,532
4,307
1,259
420
2,035
14,052
5,041
4,547
1,738
579
2,147
3d
Qtr ........
11,058
3,430
4,100
1,262
386
1,880
13,787
4,744
4,547
1,893
528
2,075
4th
Qtr ........
12,064
3,639
4,723
1,374
380
1,948
14,549
5,164
5,041
1,837
526
1,981
1977
1st
Qtr ........
13,150
4,008
5,145
1,521
413
2,063
15,575
5,786
5,068
1,783
514
2,424
2d
Qtr ........
14,375
4,195
5,700
1,687
530
2,263
16,623
6,009
5,718
1,702
602
2,592
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
Developed Countries: Direction of Trade
(Continued)
Big
Other
Com-
Big
Other
Com-
World
Seven
OECD OPEC 2
munist
Other
World
Seven
OECD OPEC 2
munist
Other
ITALY
1974
.............
30,252
13,894
7,135
2,238
2,701
4,284
40,682
17,949
6,394
9,384
2,513
4,442
1975
.............
34,825
15,626
7,519
3,718
3,228
4,734
37,928
17,284
6,189
7,854
2,431
4,170
1976
.............
35,364
16,698
8,276
4,027
2,592
3,771
41,789
18,585
7,755
7,831
3,000
4,618
1st
Qtr ........
7,398
3,513
1,713
756
597
819
9,092
4,063
1,708
1,689
608
1,024
2d
Qtr ........
8,705
4,157
2,040
951
623
934
10,716
4,786
1,918
2,092
744
1,176
3d
Qtr ........
9,398
4,505
2,191
1,057
657
988
10,335
4,497
1,860
2,035
792
1,151
4th
Qtr ........
9,863
4,523
2,332
1,263
715
1,030
11,646
5,239
2,269
2,015
856
1,267
1977
1st
Qtr ........
9,668
4,520
2,264
1,236
655
993
11,299
4,964
2,130
2,166
720
1,319
Apr
& May .....
7,480
3,435
1,719
981
540
805
8,523
3,829
1,561
1,605
523
1,005
CANADA4
1974
.............
32,390
26,827
1,970
626
851
2,116
32,408
25,965
1,508
2,613
343
1,979
1975
.............
31,778
25,885
1,753
827
1,255
2,058
34,050
27,181
1,579
3,126
311
1,853
1976
.............
37,746
31,415
2,048
930
1,270
2,083
37,922
30,383
1,661
3,171
363
2,344
1st
Qtr ........
8,539
7,197
424
167
334
417
9,159
7,331
367
843
85
533
2d
Qtr ........
10,015
8,441
496
183
345
550
10,290
8,175
421
954
95
645
3d
Qtr ........
9,216
7,486
568
271
354
537
8,834
6,965
433
716
91
629
4th
Qtr ........
9,976
8,291
560
309
237
579
9,639
7,912
440
658
92
537
1977
1st
Qtr ........
9,672
8,201
524
248
231
468
9,640
7,850
391
742
87
570
2d
Qtr ........
10,740
9,055
540
278
292
575
10,841
9,007
430
677
96
631
1 Data are unadjusted. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
2 Including Gabon.
Import data are f.a.s.
4Import data are f.o.b.
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
West Germany
10.0
8.0
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
Semilogarithmic Scale
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
9
563
79
668
75
383
5
7%
4
824
36
064
28
808
25
2%
United States
AUG 77
,
12,232
,
97,251
,
77,646
.
25.2%
United Kingdom
AUG 77
,
4,579
,
39,260
,
33,044
.
18.8%
Balance
-2,670
-17,583
-2,263
-15,320
Balance
245
-3,196
-4,236
1,041
521
6
51
989
42
541
22
2??
3
571
25
194
20
227
24
6?,,
Japan
AUG 77
,
5,466
,
40,645
,
35,772
.
13.6?%
Italy
JUL 77
,
3,365
,
25,581
,
22,305
.
14.7?a
Balance
Balance
206
-388
-2,078
1,691
9
657
66
317
56
282
17
8?
3
719
22
475
18
774
19
7%
West Germany
JUL 77
,
8,384
,
54,989
,
46,344
.
?
18.7?0
Canada
JUN 77
,
3,703
,
21,728
,
18,940
.
14.7%
Balance
1,273
11,328
9,938
1,390
Balance
France
AUG 77
5,515
41,968
37,453
12.1??
5,893
44,178
39,000
13.3%
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
United States INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
West Germany
1974
APR JUL OCT
1977
1Export and import plots are based on five month weighted moving averages.
A-14
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
103
102
United Kingdom
Italy
105
103
Canada
APR JUL OCT
1974
1977
574113 9-77
Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
MONEY SUPPLY'
INDUSTRIA
L PRODUCTION'
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
I Year
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Period
Period
1970 Earlier
Earlier'
Brazil
Jan 77
-3.1
35.5
28.2
Brazil
76 11
0.1
11.0 10.7
0.4
Egypt
Apr 77
1.2
18.6
23.0
India
Feb 77
3.5
5.5 6.9
18.7
India
Mar 77
1.8
12.3
20.5
South Korea
Jun 77
8.3
22.7 14.3
21.6
Iran
Mar 77
14.5
30.4
52.2
Mexico
Apr 77
0.6
5.6 0.4
17.5
South Korea
Jun 77
9.5
32.6
44.0
Nigeria
76 IV
0.2
11.3 9.0
0.7
Mexico
Jun 76
-0.3
17.0
16.6
Taiwan
Apr 77
1.9
14.9 12.7
-8.4
Nigeria
Feb 77
5.9
35.9
54.8
Taiwan
Mar 77
- 0.2
24.4
21.2
Seasonally adjusted.
' Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Thailand
May 77
1.5
13.5
13.0
Seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest
3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
CONSUMER PRICES
WHOLESALE PRICES
Average
-
Annual Growth Rate Since
Average
Percent Change
Annual Growth Rote Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Percent Change
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Brazil
Apr 77
3.3
26.6
44.4
Brazil
Apr 77
4.3
27.3
45.9
India
Mar 77
0.6
8.2
9.1
India
Mar 77
0.2
9.3
11.9
Iran
May 77
2.6
12.4
29.3
Iran
May 77
1.8
11.0
22.2
South Korea
Aug 77
1.3
14.6
9.7
South Korea
Aug 77
0.7
16.3
9.2
Mexico
Jun 77
1.2
14.7
32.5
Mexico
Jun 77
1.0
16.5
50.9
Nigera
Feb 77
-1.7
14.5
8.2
Taiwan
May 77
0
9.2
4.4
Taiwan
May 77
0.4
10.4
3.0
Thailand
May 77
1.2
10.1
5.9
Thailand
Jun 77
0.7
8.7
8.5
EXPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RESERVES
us $
Million US $
Average
Latest Month
-
Annual Growth
Rate Since
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
End of
Million US $ Jun 1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Brazil
Feb 77
5,873 1,013
3,667
5,139
Period
Period
1970 Earlier
Earlier
Egypt
Apr 77
405 155
375
389
Brazil
Oct 76
-0.4
14.5 26.5
17.0
India
May 77
4,431 1,006
2,258
3,481
India
Sep 76
-3.8
9.2 6.4
-6.6
Iran
Jun 77
11,025 208
8,621
10,355
Iran
May 77
0
36.5 18.6
0
South Korea
Jun 77
3,502 602
2,044
3,212
South Korea
77 I
1.7
8.8 11.9
6.9
Mexico
Mar 76
1,501 695
1,479
1,533
Nigeria
May 76
-0.1
33.2 8.2
6.6
Nigeria
May 77
.4,740 148
6,087
4,937
Taiwan
May 77
0.4
12.3 9.4
14.7
Taiwan
Apr 77
1,289 531
1,146
1,581
Thailand
Dec 76
2.0
13.3 13.1
77.7
Thailand
Jul 77
2,017 978
1,929
2,006
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 Approved For Release 2008/07/30: CIA-RDP79B00457A000200050001-5
FOREIGN TRADE, f.o.b.
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
Apr 77 Exports
-1.2
38.6
13,904
11,244
23.7%
Apr 77 Imports
-11.5
- 1.1
16,077
16,064
0.1%
Apr 77 Balance
-2,173
-4,821
2,648
76 IV Exports
-97.9
-47.8
NA
NA
NA
76 IV Imports
76 IV Balance
-93.5
-54.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Mar 77 Exports
77.7
11.2
6,496
5,612
15.7%
Mar 77 Imports
-18.2
3.2
5,650
6,595
- 14.3%
Mar 77 Balance
845
-982
1,828
Iran
May 77 Exports
32.1
14.4
34,022
28,883
17.8%
Mar 77 Imports
135.4
9.1
15,148
12,200
24.2%
Mar 77 Balance
14,710
12,956
1,754
South Korea
Jun 77 Exports
107.4
23.8
12,233
8,360
46.3%
Jun 77 Imports
158.0
31.7
12,632
10,208
23.7%
Jun 77 Balance
-399
-1,848
1,449
Mexico
May 77 Exports
25.9
28.9
5,071
4,240
19.6%
May 77 Imports
-33.8
-23.1
7,665
8,728
- 12.2%
May 77 Balance
-2,594
-4,488
1,894
Nigeria
Apr 77 Exports
-25.0
5.2
13,706
11,320
21.1%
Dec 76 Imports
Dec 76 Balance
83.0
6.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Taiwan
May 77 Exports
128.9
20.6
12,325
8,953
37.7%
May 77 Imports
122.4
21.3
10,766
8,750
23.0%
May 77 Balance
1,559
203
1,356
Thailand
Jan 77 Exports
34.3
22.9
4,206
3,172
32.6%
Mar 77 Imports
30.1
22.7
4,205
3,748
12.2%
Jan 77 Balance
-301
-812
511
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AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
7.5 $ PER BUSHEL
Kansas City No. 2 Hard Winter
5.0
1-21SEPii
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
15 $ PER BUSHEL
Chicago No. 1 Yellow
21 SEP
2.55
21 SEP
1.87
13 SEP
2.47
13 SEP
1.88
AUG 77
2.30
200
AUG 77
1.81
SEP 76
3.00
SEP 76
2.79
1.85
50
1-21SEPii
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
21 SEP ' 7.20
13 SEP 7.50
AUG 77 7.62
SEP 76 8.18
1.21 SEP
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
1.0 $ PER POUND
Memphis Middling 1 1/16"
0.4
7.50
1-21SEPii
1973 1974 1975 197,5 1977
COFFEE/TEA
400 C PER POUND
2,000
TEA COFFEE
London Auction Milds Washed
350
29 AUG
100.2
21 SEP
199.50
22 AUG
97.9
13 SEP
200.00
300
AUG 77
99.2
AUG 77
201.30
1,500
SEP 76
77.0
SEP 76
165.40
6,000
0
4935
1,000
.
200
21 SEP 0.4905
13 SEP 0.4884
AUG 77 0.5335
SEP 76 0.7376
1-21SEPii
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
150
500
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RICE
37,5 $ PER HUNDRED WEIGHT
21 SEP 159.00
13 SEP 141.00
AUG 77 140.58
SEP 76 178.86
$ PER METRIC TON 400
350
300
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens, 400
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
22 AUG 15.00
15 AUG 14.75
AUG 77 14.94
SEP 76 14.10
325 ryPER POUND
$ PER METRIC TON $ PER TON._
BOO
41 Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
Bahia, New York price
19 AUG
213.50
6,000
0
4
12 AUG
225.00
.
AUG 77
222.22
SEP 76
122.02
5,000
225
222.22
0.3
4,000
0.2
3,000
125
2,000
0.1
1
000
i
rI
,
25
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
500
FOOD INDEX
1970=100
1-21 SEPII
II 0 BO
1977 1973
1-21 SEPI I
0
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR LEAD
140 PER POUND $ PER METRIC TON C PER POUND
45.
LME US 3,000
21 SEP 55.0 60.6
13 SEP 53.5 60.6
AUG 77 52.7 63.9
SEP 76 66.2 74.6
TIN
650 C PER POUND
$ PER METRIC TON
LME US 114,000
21 SEP
520.4
568.3
80
13 SEP
489.3
537.7
AUG 77
511.8
556.4
SEP 76
360.1
396.4
STEEL SCRAP
150 $ PER LONG TON
(2,500 35
$ PER METRIC TON PLATINUM
;150 250 $ PER TROY OUNCE
us
19 SEP
60.7
21 SEP
13 SEP
60.7
13 SEP
AUG 77
62.3
AUG 77
SEP 76
171.6
SEP 76
MP USD
167.0 150.5
167.0 149.2
167.0 147.9
180.0 158.3
1973 1974
1.19 SEP I I
1977 0 100
21 SEP
13 SEP
AUG 77
SEP 76
27.1 31.0
25.7 31.0
24.9 31.0
21.7 25.0
$ PER METRIC TON
400
1-21SEPI I
1-21 SEP I I
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ALUMINUM
US STEEL
IRON ORE
CHROME ORE
CHROME ORE
FERROCHROME
NICKEL
MANGANESE ORE
TUNGSTEN ORE
MERCURY
SILVER
GOLD
RUBBER
60 & PER POUND
10 1973 1974
Major US Producer
Composite
Non-Bessemer Old Range
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
Composite US Producer
48 Percent Mn
65 Percent W03
NY
LME Cash
London Afternoon Fixing Price
NR SR
21 SEP 44.5 NA
13 SEP 44.8 NA
AUG 77 40.5 NA
SEP 76 40.1 32.3
t per pound
53.00
49.17
48.00
41.00
$ per long ton
359.36
339.27
327.00
290.33
$ per long ton
21.43
21.43
20.51
18.75
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
150.00
$ per long ton
58.50
58.50
42.00
44.50
t per pound
41.00
43.00
44.00
53.50
$ per pound
2.16
2.41
2.24
2.20
$ per long ton
72.48
72.00
72.00
67.20
$ per short ton
9169.22
10,534.69
7,502.70
5,241.58
$ per 76 pound flask
135.00
173.20
116.90
138.10
t per troy ounce
447.50
486.01
428.96
449.50
$ per troy ounce
147.98
148.23
114.14
144.09
LUMBER INDEX6
160
1,200
140
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS INDEX
300
250
1Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the US.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
6This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as "bell wethers" of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
1-13 SEP
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Iq
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