ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 42
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 22, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

A \ation.id For Release 2002/02/01 :CIA-RDP79B00457A00030~ X0001-1
?lssessmenl
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Economic intelligence
Veekl Review
22 December 1977
ER EIW 77-051
22 December 1977
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
?5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
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SECRET
NOFORN
25X6
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY REVIEW
Note: The next issue of the Economic Intelligence Weekly Review will be
published on 5 January 1978.
i
SECRET
Non-OPEC LDCs: Private Credits Account
for Massive Debt Increase Since 1973 . . . .: . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Debt owed foreign private lenders stands at nearly $90 billion, more than
2'/2 times the yearend 1973 level.
Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Signs of Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Increasing protectionist sentiment has spurred participants to speed
negotiations on further tariff cuts.
USSR: 1978 Plan Reflects Sluggish Economic Growth :! . . . . . . . . . 20
The plan mirrors Soviet difficulties in (a) adding to the labor force and
capital plant and (b) promoting gains in productivity.
Italy: Communists Challenge 1978 Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Publication of Interest, Statistics
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Next 9 Page(s) In Document Exempt
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NON-OPEC LDCS: PRIVATE CREDITS ACCOUNT FOR
MASSIVE DEBT INCREASE SINCE 1973 *
Mainly because of the quadrupling of oil prices in 1973/74, the combined
medium- and long-term debt of non-OPEC LDCs will reach $160 billion by yearend,
compared with $70 billion to $75 billion at yearend 1973.** LDC debt to foreign
private lenders-nearly $90 billion in late 1977-is now more than two and a half
times the 1973 level. Despite the explosion in debt service costs, rapid trade growth
over the past two years has brought debt service ratios back down to pre-1973 levels
for most countries.
High- and middle-income.LDCs, for which aid donors have shown less concern
during the global recession, will find access to needed credits more difficult in the next
year or two. In contrast, the low-income LDCs, which added less than a billion dollars
to their combined annual debt service payments during 1973-77, have benefited
substantially from the expansion of multilateral financing schemes and the increased
targeting of bilateral aid to the poorest countries.
This article summarizes a forthcoming OER report, The Non-OPEC LDCs: External Debt Positions and Prospects
**These figures, covering a 70-country sample, refer to disbursed credits, for which the debtor has incurred clear
liability; they are distinguished from undisbursed credits, which have been committed but not yet drawn. The debt
figures used in this article include the debt not guaranteed by the debtor country, amounting to $20 billion to $25
billion in 1976. Countries included are those listed in the IBRD World Debt Tables, excluding the OPEC countries
and all the "more advanced Mediterranean countries" except Cyprus. In addition, we have also included debts
owed by the East African Community (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania) as an entity.
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Major Compositional Changes
The broad features of non-OPEC LDC debt have changed considerably over the
last several years. Heavy borrowing by high-income LDCs, for example, has led to
shifts in the regional composition of
medium- and long-term external Percent of Total, Debt
obligations. At Yearend
1973 1976
A related compositional change Total ..... ............ 100 100
has taken place in the sourcing of Latin America .. 47 50
credits. For the non-OPEC LDCs as a East Asia 114
North Africa/Midile Fast .... 8 10
group, outstanding debt to private Sub-Saharan Africa 10 9
sources rose from 46 percent of the South Asia ......... I .............. 25 18
total in 1973 to 53 percent at the end
of 1976. This, too, primarily resulted from the actions of the wealthier LDCs in Latin
America and East Asia. These LDCs incurred nearly two-thirds of the total new debt
(and more than three-fourths of the new private debt) during 1973-76. Most of the rest
of the Third World-at least half of the 70 countries for which debt data are
available-still receives the bulk of its external capital from traditional sources: grant
aid, concessional loans, and other official credits.
Non-OPEC LDCs: Debt and Debt Service Profile,
Yearend
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977'
Debt ............................................
Offi
i
l
74,280
93,628
113,339
139,061
160,810
c
a
sources ......................
8
P
i
39,933
47,814
54,820
64,906
73,373
r
vate sources
..................
D
b
s
34,347
45,814
58,519
74,155
87,437
e
t service
............................
Offi
i
l
11,453
12,516
15,193
17,279
19,550
c
a
sources ......................
P
i
l
2,954
3,251
3,944
4,896
5,308
r
ncipa
............................
I
t
t
1,807
1,955
2,304
2,928
3,136
n
eres
................................
P
i
t
1,147
1,296
1,640
1,968
2,172
r
va
e sources ......................
P
i
8,499
9,265
11,249
12,383
14,242
r
ncipal ............................
I
5,949
6,049
6,970
7,856
9,339
nterest ................................
2,550
3,216
4,279
4,527
4,903
' Estimated.
P Including debt not guaranteed by debtor country.
s Repayments data for 1977 are only for debt existing at the end of 1976.
The high concentration of private borrowing in a few countries shows up most
dramatically in debt repayment schedules. For those countries especially active in
private capital markets in recent years, the scale of repayments-as might be
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expected-is rising faster than for other non-OPEC LDCs. Of greater concern is the
rising share of payments going to interest, a result of the harder terms of private
creditors. Interest for Latin America rose from 27 percent in 1969 to more than 42
percent in 1976 and for the East Asian countries from 34 to 43 percent over the same
period. By contrast, interest payments for the African nations, where the pivotal role
of suppliers' credits had long since pressed average rates up, rose only four percentage
points to 44 percent. As for South Asia, the share of interest actually declined, from 37
to 32 percent.
Debt and Debt Servicing by Income Groups
International economic performance and debt vary considerably according to the
income levels of particular non-OPEC LDCs. Our work was organized around three
broad income groups.
The high-income group (1976 per capita incomes of more than $600).
Countries in this group are responsible for 40 percent of the GDP of non-
OPEC LDCs. Their economies are generally more diversified than those of
the low- and middle-income LDCs, with a larger share of output originating
in manufacturing and with more varied exports.
The middle-income group (1976 per capita incomes between $200 and
$600). The export bases of these countries are generally more limited,
comprising largely primary commodities, often dominated by one or two
products.
The low-income group (1976 per capita incomes less than $200). This group
includes most of sub-Saharan Africa and all of South Asia. With few
exceptions, the economies of these nations are subsistence based and
dependent on external resources for such basic needs as food. (A conspicuous
exception is India. While fitting the low-income characterization in some
ways, it has a large and diversified industrial sector, which is increasing sales
on world markets.)
Patterns in the High-Income Group
The combined external obligations of the high-income group increased from $42
billion to $85 billion from yearend 1973 to yearend 1976; while the group's
outstanding debt was rising only moderately faster than the debt of non-OPEC LDCs
as a whole, expanded use of private credits boosted its share of total LDC repayments
from 70 to 72 percent. Overall debt service for the high-income LDCs climbed from
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$8 billion in 1973 to $12.5 billion in 1976, a jump that accounted for three-fourths
of the increase in total LDC annual service payments in the period.
A number of countries in this group-Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and South
Korea-were already borrowing fairly large sums on private capital markets before
the oilprice hikes. After 1973, these early borrowers continued using private markets
Non-OPEC LDCs: Debt and Debt Service Profile
By Income Group, Yearend
1973
1976
High Income
1977'
Debt ............................................
41,722
85,232
99,543
Official sources ......................
14,346
23,502
26,318
Private source::' ....................
27,376
61,730
73,225
Debt service' ............................
7,993
12,446
14,248
Official sources ......................
1,367
2,450
2,640
Private sources ......................
6,626
9,996
Middle Income'
11,608
Debt ............................................
12,039
24,873
29,481
Official sources ......................
7,972
16,550
19,636
Private sources' ....................
4,067
8,323
9,845
Debt service' ............................
1,995
2,554
2,930
Official sources ......................
721
1,071
1,220
Private sources ......................
1,274
1,483
Low Income'
1,710
Debt ............................................
20,519
28,956
31,786
Official sources ......................
17,615
24,854
27,419
Private sources' ....................
2,904
4,102
4,367
Debt service' .............................
1,464
2,279
2,373
Official sources ......................
865
1,375
1,449
Private sources ......................
599
904
924
Estimated.
Including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China (Taiwan), Colombia, Costa
Rica, Cyprus, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Guatemala, Guyana, Ivory Coast,
Jamaica, Liberia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,
Singapore, South Korea, Trinidad/Tobago, Tunisia, and Uruguay.
'Including debt not guaranteed by debtor country.
Repayments data for 1977 are only for debt existing at the end of 1976.
' Including Bolivia, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Egypt, El Salvador,
Ghana, Honduras, Jordan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritania, Mauritius,
Morocco, Philippines, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland,
Syria, Thailand, Togo, and Zambia.
6 Including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Burma, Burundi, Central
African Empire, Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, India, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali,
Niger, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Uganda, Upper Volta, and
Zaire.
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on a much larger scale to underwrite the huge deficits incurred in sustaining economic
expansion. Many others that had used such markets only occasionally (or for small
sums) widened the scope of their private borrowing, while a number never previously
able to secure such credits began borrowing from private sources.
High inflation levels prevailing since 1973 have substantially reduced the real
value of the debt to be repaid. Consequently, most high-income countries are no worse
off with regard to their external debt than before the oil crisis. Strong export growth,
following the 1974-75 recession, left the group debt service ratio (based on merchan-
dise exports) in 1976 at 20 percent, the same as it had been in 1973.
Patterns in the Middle Income Group
The middle-income group suffered the most rapid percentage increase in foreign
debt from yearend 1973 ($12 billion) to yearend 1976 ($25 billion). Many middle-
income LDCs, particularly those toward the high end of the income range, were
especially hard hit by the oil price increases and the global recession because of their
small domestic markets and heavy dependence on foreign trade.
Middle-income LDCs at the higher end of the scale have increasingly entered
private capital markets for development loans or balance-of-payments support. Before
1973 few of them had appeared as borrowers on these markets, partly because of their
greater dependence on official forms of aid, partly because most were not considered
especially creditworthy by Western financial institutions. With the increasing liquid-
ity of European capital markets as OPEC money poured in, the use of private credits
became both feasible and necessary for some of these countries. For the majority of
these countries, however, official sources remain the primary form of financing.
Patterns in the Low-Income Group
Collectively and individually, the low-income non-OPEC LDCs weathered the
1974-75 global recession better than the other LDCs, because of (a) their lower
dependence on imported oil, (b) the pivotal role of domestic agriculture in output, and
(c) special access to increased grant aid. External debt rose a moderate 40 per-
cent-from $21 billion (yearend 1973) to $29 billion (yearend 1976).
These countries depend mainly on official aid flows to finance their trade
deficits. The distribution of capital inflows for the group as a whole is roughly 40
percent grants, 35 percent official nongrant aid, and 25 percent other official and
private credits. Credits from the international financial institutions have been
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especially important in recent years; it is here that the developed countries have
shown the greatest flexibility in devising new transfer mechanisms and criteria.
Even though all these nations depend heavily on foreign official sources, the role
of concessional credits varies substantially. Official Development Assistance (ODA)
credits-those with an implicit grant element of 25 percent-have gone largely to
South Asia. Indeed, India and Pakistan together account for more than 70 percent of
ODA debt of the low-income group. The African countries have seen proportionally
less of these concessional flows and more of export credits and IBRD loans with harder
terms. Thus, in countries such as Burundi, Lesotho, Rwanda, and Zaire, ODA credits
take up less than 15 percent of total outstanding debt.
Future Requirements and Market Access
The single most important factor influencing both the trade and the access to
developed country capital of the non-OPEC LDCs is the rate of growth in the OECD
countries, their principal export market. Although the 1978-79 outlook for OECD
growth is not good, neither is there much probability of a recession on the scale of
1974-75. The implication is that LDC trade will hold up fairly well and that private
capital markets will not be so tight as to preclude continued annual gains in non-
OPEC LDC gross borrowing.
Looking at capital requirements by income group:
Over the next two years, high-income LDCs will be under considerable
pressure in meeting existing obligations. Debt repayments have grown
steadily, and the rate of increase in private debt service to be repaid or
refinanced will be especially large. This will probably mean debt service
ratios will again rise to about the 20 percent that prevailed in 1976.
For most of the middle-income LDCs, official credits remain the largest
foreign capital sources. These countries as a rule lack access to private
medium- and long-term funds. They stand to benefit most from increases in
the availability of official credits. Considering recent trends, however,
countries in this group will probably increase their efforts to secure private
funds.
In the low-income LDCs, the large role played by grant aid will assure that
debt service will not increase nearly as fast as for the higher income groups.
Taken with the pervasive concern among donors for helping the poorer
countries, this should permit them more latitude in dealing with external
payments dilemmas. (For Official Use Only)
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MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS: SIGNS OF PROGRESS
Increasing protectionist pressures around the world have strengthened the
determination among participants in the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) to
speed up negotiations for further tariff reductions. The United States and the
European Community agreed early in 1977 to present by mid-January 1978 (a)
requests for trade concessions from other countries on both tariff and specific nontariff
measures and (b) offers of trade concessions in response to other countries' requests.
The mid-January deadline was accepted by other participants last summer. Many
view the MTN as the only viable alternative to increased unilateral trade restrictions,
which often take the form of nontariff barriers.
After four years of negotiations, major participants (except Canada) have
informally agreed to accept a Swiss tariff-cutting formula as a basis for making offers
of tariff reductions. The Swiss approach calls for average tariff cuts of 40 to 48 percent
for each participant, with proportionately larger reductions on higher tariff rates.
Reductions would be phased in over an extended period; eight years is now under
consideration.
Acceptance of the Swiss formula as a working hypothesis does not eliminate the
prospect of tough bargaining on the four principal tariff issues-(a) amount of tariff
reduction, (b) reduction of tariff disparities, (c) exceptions, and (d) timing of cuts.
Informal agreement on most of the tariff issues has already been reached so that
specific offers for reductions can be made during the week of 15 January, when
negotiators sit down at Geneva for the final phase of this "Tokyo round" of trade talks.
Negotiators have agreed to treat agricultural products on an item-by-item basis,
guided by the Swiss formula where possible. To avoid a major confrontation with the
European Community, the United States will avoid requests that run counter to the
internal workings of the Common Agricultural Policy. On the other hand, the United
States will seek tariff reductions on certain agricultural products, such as citrus fruits
and feedgrains, that are protected by the Community.
Nontariff Measures
The question of nontariff measures (NTM)-formerly nontariff barriers-is a
complex politically sensitive issue upon which the ultimate success or failure of the
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Trade negotiations committee:
seven major groups
Tariffs ......................................
Nontariff measures
Quantitative restrictions ......
Subsidies and countervailing
duties ................................
Government procurement....
Customs matters ....................
Sector approach ......................
Safeguards ................................
Tropical products ....................
Agriculture
Grains ....................................
Dairy products ....................
Meat ......................................
Framework ................................
MTN Organizational Structure
and Status of Negotiations
Status of Negotiations
Major participants (except Canada) have informally agreed to the Swiss
formula as a basis for reducing tariffs.
Requests for elimination or enlargement of quotas have been made; offers
will be made on 15 January.
Agreement has been reached to use draft code as basis for final
negotiations.
Negotiators have prepared a framework for an agreement.
Draft code has been written and will be used as basis for final
negotiations.
EC customs valuation code has been accepted by most participants as
basis for negotiation of a uniform international customs valuation system.
Canada is the single major MTN participant supporting a sectoral
approach, especially for forest products and nonferrous metals.
Negotiators are seeking to narrow differences and define appropriate
ranges for discussion.
The developed countries are continuing discussion with interested LDCs
on implementing initial concessions.
International Wheat Council is working on a commodity agreement, with
requests being submitted in the MTN.
Requests from all participants are currently being submitted. EC and
New Zealand have presentedproposals for international agreement.
Resquests from all participants are now being submitted. EC and
Australia have presented proposals for international agreement.
Detailed proposals are currently being prepared on special and differen-
tial treatment of LDCs, use of trade measures for balance-of-payments
problems, and revised rules for disputes and settlements.
entire NTM may ride. In a GATT study, over 850 different NTMs were identified as
potential trade impediments. These were distributed among 30-odd categories.
NTMs that are being considered multilaterally in the trade talks include: (a)
government purchasing policies, (b) export subsidies and countervailing duties, (c)
product standards, (d) customs valuation, and (e) import licensing. Other bilateral
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NTMs-such as quantitative restrictions, customs formalities and fees, and discrimina-
tory charges against imports-will be addressed in the context of request/offer
procedures.
The use of nontariff measures has accelerated as a result of the inadequate
recovery from the 1974-75 global recession. An unpublished GATT report estimates
that new trade restrictions enacted in the last two years cover 3 to 5 percent of world
trade. The structure of NTMs is closely tied to domestic policies; the likelihood of
finding common ground for agreement is limited. As of 15 December, general
agreement has been achieved in a few areas considered suitable for inclusion in a
multilateral code. Most countries have made bilateral requests for concessions on
specific NTM issues.
Country Positions
While the EC negotiates for its nine members, the EC position is constrained by
the somewhat divergent interests of individual countries.
France is worried about continuing recession in many of its key industrial
sectors-especially steel, textiles, and shipbuilding. The French are willing to support
the Swiss formula provided there are reservations on the timing of future tariff cuts.
They want a clause that would allow for the indefinite postponement of future cuts if
unfavorable economic conditions occur. France is particularly sensitive to negotiations
that affect agriculture.
West Germany, a strong proponent of free trade, accepts the Swiss formula as a
basis for tariff negotiation. The Germans concede that special consideration should be
given to the structural problems of ailing industries and support the EC position on
agricultural production. They believe that successful conclusion of the MTN round
would be important largely for its political effect.
Italy is pessimistic as to what the negotiations can accomplish. Rome would shoot
for a face-saving "small deal," which probably would include tariff cuts and
relaxation of government procurement policies that favor domestic suppliers.
The United Kingdom hopes to limit damage to its depressed industries from a
lowering of trade barriers. Hence the British stress strong safeguards as a necessary
condition for acceptance of the Swiss formula.
As for Japan, the government has taken a low-profile position throughout the
MTN. Because of pressure from the United States and the European Community to
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reduce its rapidly increasing trade surplus, Japan announced on 29 November that it
would reduce tariffs on selected items before completion of the talks in Geneva. Tokyo
has agreed to the Swiss formula as a basis for tariff cuts with the understanding that
tariff concessions announced prior to the mid-January deadline will apply to the final-
round negotiations. Japan agrees with the United States on excluding oil from tariff
calculations and with the European Community on excluding most agricultural items.
Canada fears that the United States, European Community, and Japan will
conclude an agreement that will ignore the Canadian desire for the elimination of
tariffs on raw materials, semiprocessed goods, and foodstuffs. Canada has not yet
decided to make offers of tariff reduction based on the Swiss formula. The Canadian
position depends in part on the willingness of others to eliminate duties on
nonmanufactured products, a large component of Canadian exports.
In addition to the seven major developed countries, 83 other countries are
represented at the MTN. The most active of the smaller developed countries are the
Scandinavian countries, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, and Austria. Among the
LDCs, Brazil, Mexico, India, Malaysia, Argentina, and South Korea are leading
participants.
If Negotiations Fail
It now appears that the groundwork has been laid in 1977 for final negotiations to
start mid-January. Most countries will make tariff concession offers during the week of
15 January or shortly thereafter. If the MTN breaks down, protectionist pressures will
increase in the hard-pressed industries such as steel, textiles, clothing, shoes, shipbuild-
ing, transportation equipment, and household electrical appliances. (Confidential
Noforn)
USSR: 1978 PLAN REFLECTS SLUGGISH ECONOMIC GROWTH
The Soviet economic plan for 1978, approved last week, reflects Moscow's
growing realization that the goals set out in the 10th Five-Year Plan are unattainable.
In effect, the 1978 plan abandons the 1976-80 plan and outlines a scenario of slowing
economic progress. Achievement of even the implied 4-percent GNP growth tar-
get-a remarkably restrained goal by Soviet postwar standards-will depend heavily
on the USSR's ability to:
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? Break the bottleneck in steel output.
? Arrest the growth of unfinished construction.
? Lift substantially larger quantities of oil from West Siberian fields.
? Luck out with better-than-average weather for agriculture.
? Achieve major efficiencies in the use of material resources, especially energy
and metals.
Soviet 1978 Plan in Perspective
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
1971-75
1976-77
1978
Five-Year
Plan
(Actual)
(Actual)
Plan
1976-80
Major aggregates (Western concepts)
GNP
4
31/2
4
5
Industrial production
6
4
41/2
61/2
Agricultural production
-1/z
4
41/2
41/2
Investment
Total gross fixed investment
7
31/2
3'/2
31/2
Ferrous metals
Crude steel
4
11/2
4
31A
Rolled steel
4
1'/2
4
31/2
Steel pipe
5
3
4
41/2
Energy
Total primary energy
(excluding electric power):
5
5
5
5
Coal
2
11/2
3
3
Oil
7
5'/2
5
51/2
Gas
8
10
7
81/2
Electric power
7
51/
5
6
Consumer welfare
Real per capita income
41/2
4
3
4
Per capita housing space
11/2
1h
11/2
11A
Steel Output-the Key
Stagnant steel output constrained industrial production growth in 1977. Industrial
output plans for 1978-particularly for machinery and construction-critically de-
pend on a major acceleration in steel output.
Even though the 1978 steel goal of 152.6 million tons is practically the same as
the 1977 goal, it will require an increase in 1978 production of more than 5 million
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tons since output fell so far below plan in 1977. This compares with increases of 3.5
million tons in 1976 and only 2.0 million to 2.5 million tons in 1977. The 1978 plan for
rolled steel of 106.5 million tons is below the goal set for 1977, reflecting a
continuation of the problems that held back output this year. A large amount of new
steelmaking capacity is near completion, but start-up problems and shortness of iron
ore and scrap are likely to result in a failure to reach output goals in 1978.
Backlog of Unfinished Construction Still Increasing
Once again Soviet planners are counting heavily on maintaining growth in plant
and equipment through holding down the backlog of uncompleted construction
projects. The rate of completion of new plant and equipment fell to an all-time low in
1976-77, and the backlog of unfinished projects increased sharply because of slow
procurement and installation of equipment. In commenting on the new plan, both
Gosplan Chairman Baybakov and Finance Minister Garbuzov severely criticized the
ministries of ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil extraction for failing to finish projects.
Investment in new plant and equipment next year is to continue rising at the slow rate
of about 31/z percent-half the annual rate of growth in 1971-75-with emphasis
remaining on commissioning projects already under way. These plans almost certainly
will not arrest the slowdown in growth of the nation's capital stock.
Increasing Dependence on West Siberian Oil
The most striking information in the 1978 plan is the revelation that the Soviets
expect only five of the 26 regional oil producing associations to boost their output in
1978. Of these five-West Siberia, Komi ASSR, Udmurt ASSR, Orenburg Oblast, and
the Georgian SSR-West Siberia alone is committeid to increase oil production by
700,000 b/d in 1978. Despite this scheduled record increase in West Siberia, the
overall planned increase for 1978 has slipped by 100,000 b/d since last year, to only
500,000 b/d. The USSR obviously expects sharp declines in production in a number of
the older producing regions, as many of their deposits have been producing for more
than 30 years and are being depleted.
Such heavy dependence on West Siberia for the bulk of future increases in oil
production probably means that the Samotlor oilfield will have to be pushed even
harder, that is, above earlier planned peak output levels. Other smaller West Siberian
fields also may have to be operated above maximum efficient rates of recovery to
achieve output targets. This will result in still shorter producing lives of these fields,
but the Soviets have no practical alternative until they are able to make large new oil
finds.
22 SECRET
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
Rebound Planned for Grain Production
The 1978 plan calls for grain production of 220 million tons, up from the 195.5
million tons harvested in 1977. This level of output has been attained only twice
before and can be achieved only if weather proves highly favorableAn the year just
ending, grain output fell nearly 20 million tons short of the goal even with above-
average precipitation in important grain-producing areas. The Soviets will still have to
import 20 million to 25 million tons of grain in fiscal year 1978 and will almost
certainly be forced to import comparable quantities in the following years if average
weather conditions prevail.
Conservation of Raw Materials and Growth in Employment
Stringent goals for economizing on steel and fuel have been set for all sectors of
the economy. Although few concrete figures are available, the conservation theme
runs throughout the plan and budget announcements.
Growth in employment next year-the topic was not covered in the plan
announcement-will almost certainly decline as the number of persons reaching
working age drops for the first time in 18 years. As a result, the planners are restating
their perennial hopes for large gains in labor productivity throughout the economy. In
this connection, 1978 has been named the "year of shock labor" by the planners, with
"intensification" (the more intensive use of labor and equipment) as a primary slogan.
(Unclassified)
Italy: Communists Challenge 1978 Budget
The powerful Italian Communist Party (PCI) has sharply attacked the Andreotti
government's 1978 budget proposals, arguing inconsistently that the Christian Demo-
crats would (a) spend too much money and (b) not do enough to promote
employment. The proposed budget-despite the added "stings" of higher taxes and
increased charges for public services-would generate a deficit that clearly would
violate IMF loan conditions. The Communists apparently are seeking political
concessions as their price for swallowing this fiscal dish. PCI leader Berlinguer has
become insistent in his demand for a broadly based government of "national
emergency" that would include Communist ministers.
22 December 1977 SECRET
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
The proposed budget jeopardizes Italian eligibility for continued drawings on its
1977 IMF standby credit. An IMF declaration of ineligibility would cause political
problems for the PCI, which first sold austerity to its members on the need to obtain
international credit. By publicly criticizing the budget, party leaders hope to cover
themselves as much as possible should the government be forced to cancel the standby
agreement. (Confidential Noforn)
Publication of Interest*
25X6
*Copies of this publication may be ordered by calling
25X1A
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
Secret
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 p '?~lor Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
Assessment
Center
Economic Indicators
Weekly Review
ER EI 77-051
22 December 1977
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are
designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S.
Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document
directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence
Agency.
Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar
CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX
Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific
publications on an individual basis from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
1. The Economic Indicators Weekly Review provides up-to-date information
on changes in the domestic and external economic activities of the major non-
Communist developed countries. To the extent possible, the Economic Indicators
Weekly Review is updated from press ticker and Embassy reporting, so that the
results are made available to the reader weeks-or sometimes months-before receipt
of official statistical publications. US data are provided by US government agencies.
2. Source notes for the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are revised every
few months. The most recent date of publication of source notes is 20 October 1977.
Comments and queries regarding the Economic Indicators Weekly Review are
welcomed.
Approved For Release 2602/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 PT9
001 IN DUSTR194Rr Tjt 2/QAp - 0
.i. J, seasonally adjusted
United States
Semilogarithmic Scale
Japan
West Germany
130
120
110 M
?^~ - - - -rv Arrc JUL (JLI JAN APR JUL
1972 1973 1974
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 CIA-
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
United Kingdom
Semilogarithmic Scale
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN
1974
APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR, JUL OCT
1975 1976 1977
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
United States
NOV 77
0.5
3.6
6.1
2.6
United Kingdom
Japan
OCT 77
-0.4
3.7
3.3
1.9
Italy
West Germany
OCT 77
0
2.2
1.7
4.7
Canada
France
SEP 77
1.6
3.3
--3.1
-4.2
1-Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlierl
SEP 77
-0.6
0.4
-1.7
0.3
SEP 77
7.0
2.4
-1.8
-29.8
SEP 77
-0.2
3.9
3.2
-1.3
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
UNEMPLO'90 PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
West Germany
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1972 1973
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1976 1977
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A00030009
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
United Kingdom
Italy (quarterly)
A labor force survey based on new definitions of economic activity sharply raised the official estimate of Italian unemployment in first quarter 1977. Date for earlier periods thus are not comparable.
Italian data are not seasonally adjusted.
1972 1973
OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL QCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
THOUSANDS OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED
1975 1976. 1977
LATEST MONTH
1 Year
Earlier
3 Months
Earlier
United States
NOV 77
6,818
7,651
6,926
United Kingdom
NOV 77
1,433
1,317
1,414
Japan
SEP 77
1,130
1080
1,190
Italy
77 IIL
1,692
776
1,432
West Germany
NOV 77
1,041
1,016
1,047
Canada
OCT 77
900
784
859
France
OCT 77
1,100
935
1,180
NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rates for France are estimated. The rates shown for Japan and Canada are
roughly comparable to US rates. For 1975-77, the rates for France and the United Kingdom should be increased by 5 percent and
15 percent respectively, and those for West Germany decreased by 20 percent to be roughly comparable with US rates.
Approved For Release 2b02/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
DOMESTIC PRICES1 INDEX: 1970=100
United States
Japan
West Germany
150
125
France
225
200
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
175
150
Percent
Change
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
Percent
Change
from
AVERAGE ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE SINCE
LATEST
from
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
LATEST
Previous
1970
1 Year
3 Months
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
MONTH
Month
Earlier
Earlier
United States
NOV 77
0.1
8.4
6.5
4.8
United Kingdom
NOV 77
0.3
14.5
15.9
5.9
OCT 77
0.3
6.5
6.5
4.2
OCT 77
0.4
13.7
14.1
6.0
Japan
OCT 77
-0.3
7.4
0.1
0
Italy
SEP 77
1.0
15.5
14.0
7.4
SEP 77
1.8
10.5
7.6
6.2
OCT 77
1.1
13.2
16.6
11.9
West Germany
OCT 77
-0.1
5.1
1.6
-0.8
Canada
SEP 77
0.1
10.0
9.5
9.3
NOV 77
0.1
5.4
3.7
0.5
NOV 77
0.7
7.5
9.1
9.2
France
SEP 77
0.6
8.2
6.1
5.4
OCT 77
0.8
9.1
9.5
9.2
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 Approved For Release 20
02/02/01
A RD O
-
GNP'
RETAIL SALES
'
Constant Market Prices
Constant Prices
Average
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous 1 Year
Previous
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier'
United States 77 III
0.9 3.2 4.6
3.8
United States
Oct 77
1.7
3.2
5.3
2.0
Japan 77 III
0.5 5.4 5.1
1.8
Japan
Jun 77
-0.1
9.8
2.6
1.4
West Germany 77 II
-0.2 6.3 2.4
-0.8
West Germany
Sep 77
-0.8
2.3
1.7
9.5
France 77 II
-0.6 3.8 2.5
-2.2
France
Jun 77
7.7
-0.3
1.0
-8.1
United Kingdom 77 II
0.7 1.6 1.9
2.9
United Kingdom
Oct 77
-0.8
0.9
-2.5
4.6
Italy 77 II
- 1.9 2.8 2.8
-7.3
Italy
Jun 77
2.6
3.8
3.4
6.8
Canada 77 III
1.3 4.9 2.5
5.3
Canada
Sep 77
0.1
4.4
1.5
5.6
Seasonally adjusted.
Seasonally adjusted.
age
Average far latest 3
months compared with aver
age for prev
ious 3 months.
WAGES IN MANUFACTURING'
FIXED INVESTMENT'
Average
Non-residential; constant prices
Annual Growth Rate
Since
Avera
e
Percent Change
g
Annual GrowthRa
te Since
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Percent Change
Period
Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Latest
from Previous 1 Year
Previous
United States
Sep 77
0.4
7.5
6.6
6.5
Quarter
Quarter 1970 Earlier
Quarter
United States 77 III
1.0 2.1 7.8
4.2
Japan
Aug 77
2.2
17.0
9.8
8.7
Japan 77 II
0.5 1.1 4.5
2.0
West Germany
77 III
1.2
9.3
7.4
5.0
West Germany 77 II
-1.6 0.4 3.4
-6.4
France
77 1
2.3
14.1
0
9.5
France 75 IV
8.8 4.2 2.9
40.1
United Kingdom
Aug 77
0
15.3
3.0
3.5
United Kingdom 77 II
11.2 1.7 8.0
53.2
Italy
Sep 77
0
20.8
23.8
22.3
Italy 77 II
-7.8 2.5 10.3
-27.6
Canada
Sep 77
1.6
11.4
11.2
9.6
Canada 77 111
- 1.1 5.8 3.2
-4.2
' Hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) for the United Stat
es, Japan, a
nd Canada; h
ourly wage
rates for others. West G
erman and Fr
ench data refer
to the beg
inning of the quarter.
Seasonally adjusted.
'Average for latest 3
months compared with that for previous
3 months.
MONEY MARKET RATES
Percent Rate of Interest
1 Year
3 Months
1 Month
Representative ra
tes
Latest Date
Earlier
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Commerical paper
Dec 14 6.60
4.65
6.00
6.56
Japan
Call money
Dec 16 5.00
7.00
4.88
4.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Dec 14 4.15
4.84
3.95
4.06
France
Call money
Dec 16 9.38
10.31
8.50
9.13
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loans (3
months)
Dec 16 6.71
14.24
5.88
4.76
Canada
Finance paper
Dec 16 7.31
8.55
7.25
7.39
Eurodollars
Three-month deposits
Dec 16 7.11
4.95
6.59
7.09
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 EXPORT PINpoved For Release 2002/02/01 : Cl
-FEIP0U16IM000300090001-1
US $
National Currency
Average
Average
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
P
ercent Change
Percent Change
Latest
from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
Latest fr
om Previous
1 Year 3 Months
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier Earlier
United States
Oct 77
-0.8
9.2
1.9
-1.3
United States
Oct 77
-0.8
9.2
1.9 -1.3
Japan
Jul 77
-1.8
10.4
10.4
-4.4
Japan
Jul 77
-1.0
6.3
3.1 -5.3
West Germany
Sep 77
- 1.5
11.0
6.2
3.6
West Germany
Sep 77
- 1.2
4.2
- 1.2 -2.3
France
Sep 77
-1.4
11.2
8.3
12.1
France
Sep 77
-0.9
9.4
8.5 10.1
United Kingdom
Oct 77
1.9
11.1
23.2
26.1
United Kingdom
Oct 77
0.4
15.9
14.3 13.6
Italy
Aug 77
1.4?
11.4.
13.2
21.1
Italy
Aug 77
1.4
16.9
19.2 19.2
Canada
Sep 77
-5.0
8.9
-2.4
- 1.3
Canada
Sep 77
-3.2
9.5
9.1 11.4
IMPORT PRICES
OFFICIAL RES
ERVES
National Curren
cy
Average
Billion US $
Annual
Growth Rate Since
Latest Month
Percent Change
1 Year 3 Months
Latest from Previous
1 Year
3 Months
End of
Billion US $
Jun 1970
Earlier Earlier
Month
Month
1970
Earlier
Earlier
United States
Oct 77
19.0
14.5
19.0 18.9
United States
Oct 77
-0.3
13.0
7.6
3.3
Japan
Nov 77
22.1
4.1
16.7 17.8
Japan
Jul 77
-1.5
10.5
-2.3
7.0
West Germany
Oct 77
35.7
8.8
35.8 35.1
West Germany
Sep 77
-2.3
4.0
-1.3
-5.5
France
Oct 77
10.1
4.4
9.6 9.9
France
Sep 77
-1.0
10.1
7.4
0.6
United Kingdom
Oct 77
20.4
2.8
4.8 13.6
United Kingdom
Oct 77
-0.4
18.7
8.3
-6.3
Italy
Oct 77
11.1
4.7
5.4 10.5
Italy
Aug 77
2.7
20.9
12.4
19.0
Canada
Nov 77
4.2
4.3
5.1 4.8
Canada
Sep 77
-3.6
8.7
15.9
9.7
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
'
BASIC BALANCE'
Current and Long-Term-Capital T
ransactions
Cumulat
ive (Million
US $)
Cumulat
ive (Million US $)
Latest
Latest
Period Million US $
1977
1976
Change
Period
Million US $ .
1977
1976 Change
United States 1
77 II
-4,605 -
8,763
1,070
-9,833
United States
No lon
ger publis
hed I
Japan
Oct 77
1,356
7,834
2,452
5,382
Japan
Oct 77
739
5,161
1,895 3,266
West Germany
Oct 77
1,361
1,480
1,549
-69
West Germany
Sep 77
-1,341
-4,642
1,655 -6,297
France
77 III
-786 -
2,809 -4,483
1,674
France
77 III
- 1,123
-2,908
-6,121 3,214
United Kingdom
77 II
-474 -
1,490 -
1,277
-213
United Kingdom
77 II
1,409
2,075
-1,119 3,195
Italy
77 II
161
-768 -
2,859
2,091
Italy
77 II
97
-395
-2,963 2,568
Canada
77 11
-1,407 -
2,956 -
3,088
132
Canada
77 11
-217
-791
1,701 - 2,493
' Converted to US dollars at the current market rates of exchange.
'Converted to US doll
ars at the cur
rent market rates of exc
hange.
r As recommended by the Advisory Committee on the Presentation of Balance of Payments
z Seasonally adjusted.
Statistics, the Department of Commerce
no longer publishes a basic balance.
EXCHANGE RATES
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE
RATES'
Spot Rate
As of 16 Dec 77
Percent Change from
As of 16 Dec 77
Percent Change from
US $
1 Year
3 Months
Per Unit
19 Mar 73
Earlier
Earlier
9 Dec 77
1 Year
3 Months
19 Mar 73 Earlier
Earlier
9 Dec 77
Japan (yen)
0.0042
9.12
22.20
10.70
0.36
United States
2.64
-3.32
-3.48
-0.61
West Germany
0.4673
31.97
11.53
8.76
2.34
Japan
14.02
20.23
9.00
0
(Deutsche mark)
West Germany
31.41
7.03
4.16
1.08
France (franc)
0.2084
-5.44
3.99
2.82
0.81
France
-10.39
-1.97
-2.78
-0.76
United Kingdom
1.8540
-24.66
10.98
6.39
1.26
United Kingdom
-27.37
7.85
2.22
0.12
(pound sterling)
Italy
-41.04
-7.05
-4.20
-1.08
Italy (lira)
0.0011
- 35.48
- 1.21
0.97
0.35
Canada
-7.74
-9.62
-3.47
-0.40
Canada (dollar)
0.9125
-8.54
- 7.71
-2.09
-0.16
'
'Weighting is based
on each listed coun
try
s trade wi
th 16 other i
ndustrialized countries to
reflect the competitive
impact of exchange rate varia
tions among
the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
FOREIGN TRADE BILLION US $, f.o.b., seasonally adjusted
United States
14.0
12.0
10.0
West Germany
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
United Kingdom
Semilogarithmic Scale
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
LATEST
MONTH
MILLION
US $ 1977
1976
CHANGE
United States
OCT 77
9,190
99,774
94,870
5.2%
United Kingdom
OCT 77
4,894
46,020
36,432
26.3%
12,288
122,170
98,852
23.6%
4,839
48,927
41,814
17.0%
Balance
-3,098
-22,396
-3,982
18,414
Balance
55
-2,907
-5,383
2,475
Japan
OCT 77
6,580
5,168
65,066
51,065
54,025
45.731
20.4%
11.7
Italy
OCT 77
3,509
3,887
36,344
36,315
29,949
32,598
21.4%
1L4%
Balance
1,412
14,001
8,294
5,707
Balance
-378
30
-2,649
2,679
West Germany
OCT 77
10,522
96,749
83,081
16.5%
Canada
OCT 77
3,539
34,719
32,095
8.2%
8,163
78,982
68,099
16.0%
3.272
33.195
31,532
5.3%
Balance
2,359
17,766
14,982
2,784
Balance
267
1,524
564
961
France
OCT 77
5,768
5,742
53,474
55,573
46,978
50.154
13.8%
10.8%
Balance
26
-2,098
-3,176
1,078
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
FOREIGN TRADE PRICES IN US $1
United States INDEX: JAN 1975 =100
Japan
West Germany
JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT
1974 1975 1976
1Export and import plots are based on five month weighted moving averages.
A-12
JAN APR JUL OCT
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RIDP
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
United Kingdom
111
108
1977
574833 12-77
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
 Approved,F~r ~1e,~.sb2QQ21Q~(QLOPING7COUNTRIES 090001-1
Brazil
India
South Korea
Mexico
Nigeria
Taiwan
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Period Period 1970 Earlier Earlier x
76 II
Jul 77
Aug 77
Jul 77
76 IV
Sep 77
Seasonally adjusted.
Average for latest 3 months compared with average for previous 3 months.
Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
Brazil
India
Iran
South Korea
Mexico
Nigeria
Taiwan
Thailand
Latest
Month
Aug 77
Jun 77
Aug 77
Sep 77
Aug 77
Apr 77
Jul 77
Jun 77
Percent Change
from Previous
Month
0
0.3
1.6
9.5
0.7
-2.3
1.4
-1.8
36.7
12.0
28.3
32.6
18.7
36.9
24.4
13.1
1 Year
Earlier
46.2
16.9
15.6
56.3
30.1
47.5
27.1
12.0
0.1
-4.7
4.7
1.0
0.2
7.2
11.0
4.3
22.7
6.0
11.3
15.0
10.7
2.0
13.6
4.7
9.0
12.3
0.4
-7.2
49.3
21.6
0.7
-2.0
Average
A
l
Average
nnua
Growth Rote Since
Annual Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
1 Year
Latest
Percent
from P
Change
revious 1 Year
Month Month 1970
Earlier
Month
Mo
nth 1970 Earlier
Brazil
O
ct
77
2.7
27.2
42.1
Brazil
Sep
77
1.6
27.1
34
4
India
S
ep
77
1.2
8.5
9.6
India
Sep
77
0
9.2
.
4.8
Iran
S
ep
77
0.7
12.3
30.2
Iran
Oct
77
0
.5
10.1
13.1
South Korea
S
ep
77
0.3
14.5
9.2
South
Korea
Sep
77
0
.7
16.3
9.4
Mexico
S
ep
77
1.8
15.0
32.2
Mexico
Sep
77
0
.5
16.5
44.6
Nigera
Ju
n
77
4.0
16.2
23.7
Taiwan
Sep
77
-0
.5
8.9
3.8
Taiwan
S
ep
77
1.9
10.9
10.4
Thailand
Jul
77
1
.0
10.1
7
1
Thailand
A
ug
77
1.1
8.7
9.9
.
Average
Annual Growth Rate Since
1 Y
3
Percent Change
ear
Months
Latest from Previous 1 Year
Earlier
I Earlier
Period Period 1970 Earlier
Brazil
Jun 77
5,707
1,013
3,716
5,863
India
Oct 77
4,886
1
006
2
778
4
395
Brazil
Jul
77
-12.4
16.3
28
4
,
,
,
India
Feb
77
8
0
.
Iran
Oct 77
11,547
208
8,542
1 1,592
.
10.4
8.9
South Korea
Sep 77
4,040
602
2
374
3
502
Iran
Aug
77
0
35.0
18
7
,
,
South Korea
77
11
1
4
.
Mexico
Mar 76
1,501
695
1,479
1,533
.
8.7
8.5
Nigeria
Oct 77
4,551
148
5
635
4
495
Nigeria
May
76
-0.1
27.3
12.3
Taiwan
Aug 77
1,416
531
,
1
586
,
1
331
Taiwan
Aug
77
-0.3
11.8
5.3
Thailand
Oct 77
1,906
978
,
1
937
,
2
017
Thailand
Dec
76
2.0
13.3
13.1
,
,
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
Latest 3 Months
Percent Change from
3 Months 1 Year
Latest Period
Earlier'
E
arlier 1977
1976
Change
Oct 77 Exports
-47.7
5.0
10,171
8,119
25.3%
Oct 77 Imports
11.4
-4.4
9,989
10,250
-2.5%
Oct 77 Balance
182
-2,131
2,313
Jul 77 Exports
-42.6
1.8
3,165
2,923
8.3%
Jul 77 Imports
10.6
2.7
2,529
2,480
2.0%
Jul 77 Balance
636
443
193
Iran
Sep 77 Exports
0.2
-0.3
17,793
16,865
5.5%
Sep 77 Imports
2.8
3.5
9,479
9,301
1.9%
Sep 77 Balance
8,313
7,564
749
South Korea
Aug 77 Exports
43.9
20.3
6,217
4,838
28.5%
Aug 77 Imports
16.4
18.8
6,265
5,121
22.3%
Aug 77 Balance
- 47
-283
235
Mexico
Aug 77 Exports
-46.9
30.5
2,743
2,125
29.1%
Aug 77 Imports
101.8
-16.5
3,260
4,070
- 19.9%
Aug 77 Balance
-517
-1,945
1,428
Nigeria
Sep 77 Exports
-18.9
14.6
3,638
2,940
23.7%
Dec 76 Imports
86.7
8.4
2,531
1,990
27.2%
Dec 76 Balance
1,502
1,102
399
Taiwan
Sep 77 Exports
28.7
9.0
6,637
5,902
12.5%
Sep 77 Imports
-13.9
6.1
5,722
5,111
11.9%
Sep 77 Balance
915
790
125
Thailand
Aug 77 Exports
-18.7
26.3
2,392
1,911
25.2%
Aug 77 Imports
28.4
40.2
2,716
2,101
29.3%
Aug 77 Balance
-324
-190
-134
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
AGRICULTURAL PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
1-14 DECI 1-14 DECI 0
0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
1-14 DECI
1.0 $ PER POUND
Memphis Middling 1 L/16"
2,000
350
0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
300
1,500
1,000
200
14 DEC 8.22
7 DEC 7.54
NOV 77 6.66
DEC 76 7.64
TEA
London Auction
COFFEE
Other Milds Arabicas,
ex-dock New York
17 OCT
102.3
14 DEC 205.86
10 OCT
96.9
7 DEC 204.85
NOV 77
NA
NOV 77 196.44
DEC 76
77.0
DEC 76 207.11
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
RICE
$ PER HUNDRED
37.5 WEIGHT
No. 2 Medium Grain, 4% Brokens,
f.o.b. mills, Houston, Tex.
22.5
1-5DECI
COCOA1
PER POUND
325
Bahia, New York price
$ PER METRIC TON
7,000
22 NOV NA
16 NOV NA
OCT 77 NA
NOV 76 150.51
SOYBEAN MEAL
$ PER TON
I Percent Bulk, f.o.b. Decatur
SOYBEAN OIL/PALM OIL
$ PER POUND
0.5 SOYBEAN OIL
$ PER METRIC TON 400
14 DEC 155.50
7 DEC 153.00
NOV 77 163.40
DEC 76 196.22
,ude, Tank Cars, T.O.D. uecatur
14 DEC 0.2280
7 DEC 0.2290
NOV 77 0.2099
DEC 76 0.2100
Crude, Bulk, c.i.f. US Ports
14 DEC 0.2475
2,000 0 1,LJ 7 DEC ? 0.2300
CFYRGHT
FOOD INDEX
1970=100
1-6 DEC
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NOV 77 0.1948
DEC 76 0.1960
1,000
1The chart on Cocoa prices will be deleted because the data are not available.
NOTE: The food index is compiled by the Economist for 16 food commodities
which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES MONTHLY AVERAGE CASH PRICE
COPPER WIRE BAR
C PER POUND
LME US
14 DEC 57.6 60.6
7 DEC 56.1 60.6
NOV 77 53.6 60.6
DEC 76 58.6 65.6
40
1973 1974 1975 1976
80
60
14 DEC
7 DEC
NOV 77
DEC 76
$ PER METRIC TON LEAD
45 S PER POUND
2,500 35
$ PER METRIC TON TIN
650 C PER POUND
LME US
24.7 31.0
23.7 31.0
23.7 31.2
29.1 37.0
1-14 DEC
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 0
STEEL SCRAP
$ PER LONG TON
$ PER METRIC TON 150
550
PLATINUM
250 $ PER TROY OUNCE
1-12 DEC l
0
1975 1976 1977 100
1973
$ PER METRIC TON
LME
U`
1,000
14 DEC
31.7
33.-
7 DEC
30.6
33.L
NOV 77
28
6
32
,
.
.
800
DEC 76
21.6
26.'
LME US 622.6
1-14 DEC
1975 1976 1977
1-14 DEC I
-
1974 1975 1976 1977
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
CPYRGHT
ALUMINUM
Major US Producer
t per pound
53.00
44.00
48.00
US STEEL
Composite
$ per long ton
359.36
316.36
333.78
IRON ORE
Non-Bessemer Old Range
$ per long ton
21.43
19.50
20.51
CHROME ORE
Russian, Metallurgical Grade
$ per metric ton
150.00
150.00
150.00
CHROME ORE
S. Africa, Chemical Grade
$ per long ton
58.50
39.00
42.00
FERROCHROME
US Producer, 66-70 Percent
t per pound
41.00
45.00
43.00
NICKEL
Composite US Producer
$ per pound
2.07
2.20
2.41
MANGANESE ORE
48 Percent Mn
$ per long ton
72.24
72.00
72.00
TUNGSTEN ORE
Contained Metal
$ per metric ton
21,563.68
13,954.00
18,352.00
MERCURY
$ per 76 pound flask
123.00
110.00
134.50
SILVER
LME Cash
t per troy ounce
474.63
478.82
434.62
GOLD
London Afternoon Fixing Price $ per troy ounce
159.82
125.71
133.79
300 ,; .
1970=100
41.00
306.72
18.75
150.00
44.50
52.00
2.20
67.20
10,960.00
120.00
408.93
139.30
1Approximates world market price frequently used by major
world producers and traders, although only small quantities of
these metals are actually traded on the LME.
2Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the U S.
3As of 1 Dec 75, US tin price quoted is "Tin NY lb composite."
4Quoted on New York market.
5S-type styrene, US export price.
6 This index is compiled by using the average of 13 types of lumber whose
prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction costs.
7Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
NOTE: The industrial materials index is compiled by the Economist for 19 raw
materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by
3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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 Approved For Release 2002/02/01 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000300090001-1
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