SOVIETS FACE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000600110002-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: August 9, 1977
• Content Type: NSPR

Soviet workers fight muddy conditions on the Siberian pipeline
Associated Press
a key part of their nation's energy program.
SovietsFace Economic Slowdown
United Press International
A marked reduction in the Soviet
Union's economic growth appears
"almost inevitable" in the next 10
years and the most serious problem
it faces is a looming oil shortage,
the Central Intelligence Agency
reported yesterday.
The report said the slowdown
will make it "mach more. difficult"
for the Soviets to pursue three key
objectives: catching up with the
United States in military strength,
steadily expanding its industrial
base, and meeting minimal con-
sumer expectations for improved
living conditions and welfare.
The report, released by Congress'
Joint Economic: Committee, said
the situation al.io will "pose hard
choices for the leadership which
"We conclude that a marked
reduction in the rate of economic
growth in the 1980s seems almost
inevitable," said the report. "At
best, Soviet GNP (gross national
product) may be able to continue
growth at a rate of about 4 per
cent a year through 1980, declining
to 3 to 3' per cent in the early
and mid-1980s.
"These rates, however, assume
prompt strong action in energy
policy, without which the rate of
growth could decline to about 3%
per cent in the near term anti to
2 to 21/2 per cent in the 1980s."
The report emphasized that the
figures used were average. "In
some years, performance could be
better, but in others, worse, with
zero growth or even decline:; in
Long-standing problems in the
Soviet economy are likely to inten-
sify and will be complicated by two
new factors-"a sharp decline in
the working age population and an
energy constraint," the report said
The study stressed that "the most
serious problem" is a looming oil
shortage. The CIA said Soviet of-
ficials long have favored increasing
current output over developing new
sources of oil, and production,
therefore, is expected to fall.
The report said the Soviet Union
is banking on new supplies of oil
and alternate energy sources going
into production after the raid-1980s.
"But most of these energy sources
lie east of the Urals (mountains),
far from major industrial and pop-
ulation centers," it said. "'Their de-
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/09 : CIA-RDP79BOO457AO00600110002-4
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SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 5 (AP)-
CIA Director Stansfield Turner said
today the Soviet economy is in trou-
ble.
Details will be made public i n W ash-
ington next week, the admiral said in
his first speech since being named
Thursday by President Carter to con-
trol all the nation's intelligence-gath-
ering agencies.
Speaking at a luncheon of the
13,000-member Commonwealth Club,
Turner said the CIA estimates "that
Soviet production -of oil will fall
markedly in about 1980 ... this will
have a major impact on the world's
economy."
lie said Russia's economic troubles
hinge in part on its oil problems and
on "demographic factors which are
going to slow the rate of growth of
the labor force-"
He wens. on, "In neither case . .
are we predicting that the Soviets'
economic problems are insurmount-
able; what we're simply saying is that,
some of the characteristics of the
Soviet economy-its rigidity, its ad-
herence to a false economic philoso-
phy, some of the indicators of its per-
formance in the recent past-lead us
to believe that the Soviet leadership
is going to be facing some very diffi-
rut1 p