COFFEE OUTLOOK 1977-80 A RETURN TO NORMAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
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• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 1, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Confidential
Coffee outlook 1977-80
A Return to Normal
Confidential
ER 77-10471
August 1977
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
Sec. 5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
date impossible to determine
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Coffee Outlook 1977-80
A Return to Normal
Central Intelligence Agency
Directorate of Intelligence
Overview
The boom in coffee prices and exporter earnings has already begun to
slow down. Although 1976 was a record year for prices and earnings and
1977 promises to be even better, the outlook for 1978-80 is much less
bullish. Barring another major crop failure, exporting countries will face
greatly reduced prices, lower earnings, and a growing surplus by 1980.
With favorable weather, coffee production should continue to recover. By
the 1980 marketing year' output should be 30 percent above the MY 1977
level, largely because of the expected recovery of the Brazilian coffee sector
from the effects of the 1975 frost. Production should also improve slightly
in most other areas of the world, although no change is expected in Africa.
Although the current decline in world consumption should level off, a
rebound is unlikely in the near future. High prices have already reduced
consumption by as much as 20 percent in major importing countries,
including the US. The introduction of coffee extenders and fillers as well as
increased use of instant coffees and coffee substitutes have eroded coffee
sales. Consumer habits have probably been permanently altered,
considerably reducing the long-term growth of consumption. Sales are not
expected to expand quickly as prices are reduced; by MY 1980,
consumption, rather than having grown at the long-term growth rate of 3
percent per year, will actually be below MY 1976 levels.
Prices will be under strong downward pressure as supply and demand
come into balance during the 1979 marketing year. Unless a major reversal
occurs in production, this pressure will continue in the next few years as
growth of production exceeds that of consumption and stocks increase.
Producers may opt to limit production increases to avoid growing surpluses
accompanied by relatively low prices and export earnings.
I The marketing year for coffee ends 30 September of the stated year.
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fff,Kil rams
' n f ern Goffeel
WE
Exports and Domestic
Consumption
I I I 1 I I
l
Figure 1
77 79
MEM,
11
CONFIDENTIAL
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Coffee Outlook 1977-80
A Return to Normal
Background Events
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer,
suffered a severe frost in July 1975, which
killed or damaged a considerable portion of the
trees and greatly curtailed output, causing
coffee prices to reach record levels. The frost
reduced Brazil's harvest from 23 million bags in
MY 1976 to 9.5 million bags in MY 1977.
World production was reduced by 11.3 million
bags, as harvests were up slightly in other
producing areas. Despite stock draw-downs in
Brazil and other producing countries, prices
skyrocketed from 66 cents per pound 2 in July
1975 to $3.22 per pound by April 1977.
World import demand nonetheless increased
in 1976. Consumers appeared insensitive to the
initial price rises, and as the year progressed
demand increased in anticipation of further
price increases. The National Coffee Association
estimated that US consumers had built stocks
of six to eight weeks. Although US coffee
imports in 1976 fell 2 percent, roastings were
up 3 percent as roasters drew down green coffee
inventories.
Exporters realized large profits from spiraling
coffee prices in 1976. Earnings for the 16 major
coffee exporters increased to $7 billion, more
than double the 1975 total. Brazil, the world's
largest exporter, had $2.4 billion in sales, up
167 percent from 1976. Colombia and the Ivo-
ry Coast increased earnings by about 45 percent
and 93 percent, respectively. With prices con-
tinuing to rise in early 1977, exporter earnings
are running well ahead of last year and could
possibly total $14 billion for the year.
2Spot prices for milds washed coffee.
Current Market Situation: The Waiting Game
After an uninterrupted advance of nearly
nine months, falling demand caused green cof-
fee prices to plummet 17 percent in late April.
An increase in consumption of instant coffee
was the major factor in lowering demand for
beans in the first quarter. Instant coffee re-
quires only half as many beans per cup as
ground coffee. First quarter retail sales of
ground coffee in the US were down 22 percent
and roastings slumped 24 percent in the first
half. Although import demand in Western Eu-
rope was up 8 percent during January through
March, it dropped sharply in April as consump-
tion fell and roasters worked off stocks. Antici-
pation of the usual summer decline in Northern
Hemisphere consumption and an increase in tea
consumption were also factors reducing demand
Coffee
Net Imports by Members
of the International Coffee Organization
Thousand Bates
1.970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
March
June
September
December
49,599
49,438
48,945
47,703
47,706
47,894
51,141
49,570
50,992
50,514
48,813
51,024
51,889
54,401
53,422
53,684
54,270
53,574
52,104
48,882
47,067
45,823
49,558
52,247
53,796
54,981
53,971
53,579
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?MUUMPO. Stocks
oasthm? of Coffee
s of 60 Kit rams
Roastings
for coffee. First quarter imports of tea into the
UK and the US, the world's largest importers,
were running 10 percent above 1976 levels.
As prices eased in late April, some exporters
reduced offerings. Low producer stocks and
past high earnings allowed a temporary with-
drawal from the market which, along with
rumors of new damage in Brazil from cold
weather, helped firm prices temporarily. As it
became apparent that the damage to Brazil's
crop was minimal, prices again dropped. Recent
bean prices are 40 percent below the April
peak; by late June retail prices also began to
come down, falling about 10 percent from the
early June peaks.
In response to the price slump, Brazil has
again entered the market as a purchaser of
coffee. In a recent announcement, Interbras, a
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Brazilian trading agency, reported buying
300,000 bags of coffee from Central American
countries and 167,000 bags from Madagascar.
An additional purchase is being negotiated with
Indonesia. These purchases are an attempt to
boost sagging prices as well as add to Brazil's
dwindling coffee supplies. Similar moves by
Brazil firmed prices last year. Brazil has also
announced its intention of withholding coffee
for export unless it receives $3.20 per pound.
Major Uncertainties for the Remainder of 1977
The outlook for the rest of the year is
clouded by major uncertainties; changes in any
of a number of factors could alter the delicate
supply-demand balance and cause volatile price
fluctuations. Among the major uncertainties
are:
? Possible frost damage to Brazil's coffee
trees during its winter period.
? The magnitude of the decline in con-
sumption as a result of high prices.
? The extent of damage from coffee rust
and the degree to which it spreads further
in the Central American producing coun-
tries.
Weather developments in Brazil probably will
cause short-term volatility in prices; a damaging
frost there could send prices skyrocketing once
again. If the frost period passes without inci-
dent, the Brazilian harvest should range be-
tween 13 million and 17 million bags-enough
to maintain downward pressure on prices. Most
of this pressure should be reduced, however, by
the seasonal rise in roaster demand in the fall.
Consumption should continue to fall, easing
the pressure on dwindling world stocks. Al-
though imports and roaster demand will pick up
in the coming months as importer stocks are
replenished, the general trend will be down-
ward. The fall harvest in Central America-
which we expect to be only slightly reduced by
coffee rust damage-should further weaken
prices at year's end.
Demand: The Great Unknown
Econometric studies of the coffee market
conducted by the World Bank and US Depart-
ment of Agriculture indicate that coffee de-
mand is relatively price inelastic, i.e-., coffee
consumption is relatively unresponsive to price
changes. World Bank estimates of demand
elasticities are -0.15 for the US, -0.26 for other
importers, and -0.22 for producing countries.
However, these analyses were made when coffee
prices were at relatively low levels. The price
elasticity of demand should be higher at current
price levels.
First quarter data on US retail sales indicate a
price elasticity of demand for coffee of -0.4.
The apparent increase in the elasticity indicates
that there will be a greater drop in consumption
than previously anticipated. West European
consumers appear not to have responded to the
same degree, probably because the relative price
change there has been less. European consumer
prices were initially much higher than US prices
largely because of taxes and duties imposed on
coffee.
Current consumption data are not available
for the Communist countries. Although East
European countries reportedly canceled orders
for 150,000 bags of Angolan coffee, we have no
information to suggest that imports from other
sources are being cut sharply. While consump-
tion may show a slight decline in the Commun-
ist bloc countries, the impact on total world
consumption will not be signficant since these
countries represent a relatively small share of
the total.
Coffee consumption in producing countries is
often subsidized by export taxes, thereby partly
shielding consumers from high world market
prices. Brazil's new export registration program
is an example of producer policies to guarantee
domestic supplies at low prices. While this type
of action limits the rationing effect on domestic
consumption, government efforts to maximize
export earnings should prevent any appreciable
growth in coffee consumption in the producing
countries over the next 12 months.
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CONFIDENTIAL
We believe that consumption for the 1977
marketing year will decline by roughly 10
percent, despite the initial upturn in imports
and roastings. Moderating green coffee prices
will not increase consumption in the next few
months because of the two- to four-month lag
between green coffee prices and retail prices
and because of the increased usage of instant
coffees, coffee extenders, and coffee substi-
tutes.
The period of record high prices probably has
permanently altered consumer preferences, re-
sulting in an overall decline in demand for
coffee. Less coffee will now be purchased at
any price level compared with amounts pur-
chasedprior to 1976.
Supply Outlook to 1980
Barring adverse weather in major producing
areas, we estimate that production will begin a
steady recovery from the scant 61.5 million
bags harvested in MY 1977. Production should
rise by about 15 percent in MY 1978 and
continue to increase to a level of 80 million
bags by MY 1980.
Table 2
World Coffee Production Estimates'
Million Bags
World Bank
CIA
1977
64.2
61.5
1978
76.7
70.4
1979
84.7
76.0
1980
88.2
80.0
' Year ending 30 September of the
stated year.
Coffee production responds to prices only
after a substantial lag. New trees take three
years to bear and do not reach full production
in less than five years. Even in the long run,
supply is inelastic; estimates of long-term elast-
icity range from 0.2 to 0.44. Short-term elastic-
ities are only 0.03 to 0.2. The inelastic response
is due mainly to the physical limitations of
coffee production. The historical importance of
coffee as an export earner has also contributed
to the slowness in supply adjustment in produc-
ing countries, especially during periods of low
prices.
Historically, fluctuations in Brazil's coffee
supplies have been the dominant factor affect-
ing world prices. Although Brazil's total produc-
tion and share of world production have been
declining for the past 20 years, it is still by far
the world's largest producer. The decline in
Brazilian production after the 1975 frost was
the major cause of the price rise in MY 1977;
production in other countries increased during
this period.
Damage from the frost was so severe that 200
million coffee trees had to be replaced. Most of
the new trees will begin producing in MY 1978
and should produce normal yields in MY 1980.
Brazil's harvest could reach pre-frost levels as
early as MY 1979, due to the regeneration of
frost-damaged older trees, better cropping prac-
tices, and higher yields from new, improved
stock.
Brazilian production for the current harvest
is estimated at 13 million to 17 million bags.
Using a simple regression equation with produc-
tion as a. function of tree population, and
assuming favorable weather conditions, we have
estimated Brazilian production at 22 million
bags in MY 1979 and 26 million bags in MY
1980.
Production in the remaining coffee growing
countries was estimated by extrapolating past
trends. In the case of Central American pro-
ducers, the uncertainty of coffee rust damage
poses a problem. Although we do not foresee
major rust damage, production may be down a
little in some countries. On the basis of Brazil's
experience with rust, production losses in Cen-
tral America should be minimal, but production
costs will rise as chemicals are applied to
combat the disease.
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Figure 3
Cc parison of Brazilian production,
S ocks,,arictW Work Coffee prices
74 75
W
,l~gr5r ending September of the stated
Ya,~grta'r,year.
African production is not expected to in-
crease over the next three years, largely because
of political factors in Uganda and Angola. The
Angolan coffee industry was severely damaged
by the fighting in 1975 and is unlikely to return
to pre-war production levels before 1980.
Ugandan production has been on the decline for
the past four years due to political problems,
and we do not expect a turnaround in this
trend. Although with favorable weather other
African countries may offset these declines in
production, output for the region as a whole is
unlikely to grow.
The Price Outlook: Two Possible Scenarios
Prices and consumption during MY 1980
were examined under two different assumptions
regarding coffee supply. In case 1, weather was
assumed to be favorable and coffee production
reached the levels of our estimates shown in
table 2. For this case, prices trended downward
while consumption recovered slowly but re-
mained below MY 1975 levels in 1980. In case
2, we assumed that unfavorable weather condi-
CONFIDENTIAL
tions reduced MY 1979 production by five mil-
lion bags. For this case, prices increased initially
and remained at high levels before turning down
in MY 1980. Consumption declined in MY
1978 and MY 1979 and increased in MY 1980.
Coffee production was assumed to be
exogenous during the study period because of
the lagged response between new tree plantings
and production. We assumed prices to be a
function of consumption and stocks, because
the price cycle historically has been fairly
accurately mirrored by the cycle in world
producer stocks. As the ratio of stocks to
consumption has fallen, prices have increased
and vice versa. Stocks as a percentage of
consumption recently have been at an all time
low, while prices have been at record high
levels.
Under case 1, coffee stocks continue to
decline until the MY 1979 harvest. The con-
current decline that we estimate for consump-
tion will keep current high prices from showing
any substantial additional gains during this
period. Prices will moderate substantially in MY
1979, as production exceeds consumption and
Table 3
Future Coffee Production: Two Cases'
Thousand Bags
Supply
Consumption
Stock Change
1977
61,500
73,000
-11,500
1978
70,400
73,000
-2,600
1979
76,000
74,500
1,500
1980
80,000
76,500
3,500
Case 2: Unfavorable Production
1977
61,500
73,000
-11,500
1978
70,400
71,000
-600
1979
71,000
71,000
--
1980
78,000
72,000
6,000
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Million Ba LRLV Kilo ra
Long-term Trend
gMillion Bags of 60 Kilograms
F Africa
o I I I I I I I l I ,I l I I l I I I
~ 3 65_ 67 fig 71 77 a 77 ~q
s of 6 K rams
jlRon Bags of 60 Kilograms
Central America and
Caribbean
krzxciuaing tsrazil)
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stocks increase slightly. Price declines will cause
consumption to increase in MY 1979 and again
in MY 1980. The increases, however, will be less
than the long-term trend of 3 percent. 1980
prices will not fall to the 50 cents to 60 cents
per pound that prevailed prior to the 1975
Brazilian frost.
Under our analysis of reduced supplies be-
cause of unfavorable weather, prices will in-
crease again and bring about a 3-percent reduc-
tion in consumption in MY 1978. Prices will
remain firm in MY 1979, while consumption
will be about the same. With production as-
sumed to recover rapidly in MY 1980, prices
will begin a sharp decline and consumption will
increase about 2 percent.
Implications
The current boom in coffee prices and
earnings will not last beyond 1980, even with
another frost. Record high prices have so
changed consumption patterns that long-term
demand growth has been seriously affected.
Coffee extenders-fillers and additives-have
gained footholds in the market. These extend-
ers, coffee substitutes such as tea, and absti-
nence will reduce coffee sales. Demand for
green coffee beans will also continue to decline
because of increased consumption of instant
coffees. All these factors point to slower growth
in coffee consumption even after coffee sup-
plies increase.
The author of this paper is IT&X1 A
trial Nations Division, Office of Economic Re-
search. Comments and queries are welcomed
and should be directed to - on 25*1 A
143, extension 5541.
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1 National Defense University, Attn: Classified Library,
Rm. 30, Ft. Leslie J. McNair, Washington, D. C. 20319
1 Mr. John D. Pafenberg, INA, Department of the Air Force,
Room 4A882, Pentagon
31 Defense Intelligence, Agency, RDS-3C, A Bldg. , AHS
Department of the Treasury, Office of Intelligence Support
Dolores A. O'Dell, Rm. 4326, 15th St. & Pa. Ave., N.W.
Department of State, INR/CC, Room 6510, New State Bldg.
12 - suggested distribution for Embassies in 3 cys for Brussels
(1 cy for Ralph Moore, US Mission to NATO; 1 cy for US
Mission to the European Communities), London, 2 cys for Paris
(1 cy for US Mission to OECD), Ottawa, Abidjan, Kampala,
Rio de Janeiro, Bogota, & San Salvador
Mrs. Cynthia Sutton, Federal Reserve Board, TIC, Rm, 518C,
Watergate Office Bldg., 600 N. H. Ave., N W. for R. J. Irvine
k 22
(w/list)
ELITE DISSEM (#41-#76)
Finished Intelligence Project, Room 154, P&P Bldg.
1 Agency Archives
Agency Records Center
Total: 340 copies
1 - Camera original to Agency Archives
1 - Diaso copy to Agency Archives
1 - Silver Duplicate to OCR/CLD/DSB, Room lHllZ9, Hq.
1 - Diaso copy to OGCR, Room 1232, Ames Bldg.
1 - Diaso copy to PPG/R&D, Room 7G07, Hq.
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 Approved For ReleasRi6i1E5/1 4 CIA- 6P79B00457A000700050001-1
Bulgaria, Sofia
Czechoslovakia, Prague
Germany, Berlin
Hungary, Budapest
Poland, Warsaw
Romania, Bucharest
USSR, Moscow
EUROPE
Austria, Vienna
Belgium, Brussels
ssion to the
~.TnnPan C'ornmunities)
enmark, Copenhagen
10?ngland, London
Finland, Helsinki
1) '?'France, Paris
Germany, Bonn
Munich .
Iceland, Reykjavik
Ireland, Dublin
Italy, Rome
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Malta, Velletta
Netherlands, The Hague
Norway, Oslo
Portugal, Lisbon
Spain, Madrid
Sweden, Stockholm
Switzerland, Bern
Geneva
Zurich
Yugoslavia, Belgrade
'France, Paris, US Mission to OECD
reporrrs for
re, US Mission to NATO)
Australia, Canberra
Melbourne
Philippines, Manila
New Zealand., Wellington
FAR EAST
PC < K~, P R C
Burma, Rangoon
Formosa, Taipei
Hong Kong
Indonesia, Jakarta
Japan, Tokyo
Korea, Seoul
Laos, Vientiane
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur
Singapore
Thailand, Bangkok
(2 cys - 1 cy for US Rep to SEATO)
4NADA, OTTAWA
(a--e/ `Z t-Ltz~ )
(see reverse side)
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 20 1/03/22 :CIA-RQP79B00457A00070U050001-1
Algeria, _Algiers
Botswana, Gaberones
Burundi, Bujumbura
Cameroun, Yaounde
Central African Republic, Bangui
Chad, Fort Lamy
Zaiie, Kinshasa
Dahomey, Cotonou
Ethopia, Addis Ababa
Gabon, Libreville
Gambia, Bathurst
Ghana, Accra
/ fuinea, Conakry
Ivory Coast, Abidian_
Kenya, Nairobi
Lesotho, Maseru
Liberia, Monrovia
Libya, Tripoli
Malagasy Republic, Tananarive
Mali, Bamako
Malawi, Blantyre
Mauritania, Novakchott
Mauritius, Port Louis
Morocco, Rabat
Mozambique, Lourenco Marques
Niger, Niamey
Nigeria, Lagos
Rhodesia, Salisbury
Rawanda, Kigali
Senegal, Dakar
Sierra Leone, Free Town
Somalia, Mogadiscio
South Africa, Pretoria
Sudan, Khartoum
Swaziland, Mbabane
Tanzania, Dar es Salaam
Togo, Lome
Tunisia, Tunis
I/Uganda. Kampala
ON-
Upper Volta, Ouagadougou
Zambia, Lusaka
Afghanistan, Kabul
Bangladesh, Dacca
Ceylon, Colombo
Cyprus, Nicosia
.Egypt, Cairo
Greece, Athens
India, New Delhi
Iran, Tehran
Iraq, Baghdad
Israel, Tel Aviv
Jordan, Amman
Kuwait, Kuwait
Lebanon, Beirut
Nepal, Katmandu
Pakistan, Islamabad
Qatar, Doha
Saudi Arabia, Jidda
South Yemen, Aden
Syria, Damascus
Turkey, Ankara
UAE, Abu Dhabi
Argentina, Buenos Aires
Bahamas, Nassau
Barbados, Bridgetown
Bolivia, La Paz
voojl zil R; rto T a?P; r^--
Chile, Santiago
~/ Colombia> ogota .
Costa Rica, San Jose
Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo
Ecuador, Quito
/**t-El Saly or, San S
Guatemala, Guatemala
Guyana, Georgetown
Haiti, Port au Prince
Honduras, Tegucigalpa
Jamaica, Kingston
Mexico, Mexico City
Nicaragua, Managua
Panama, Panama
Paraguay, Asuncion
Peru, Lima
Trinidad, Port of Spain
Uruguay, Montevideo
Venezuela, Caracas
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
(COPY)
MEMORANDUM FOR:
The Honorable Harold H. Saunders
Director
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
Attached is your personal copy of
our memorandum, "Coffee outlook 1977-80:
A Return to Normal," ER 77-10471, CONFI-
DENTIAL.
Director of Economic Research
Central Intelligence Agency
(DATE)
8AUG1977
STATINTL
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
1f j Mr. Robert Hormats . XXX XXNXXXXXEXIMbXX
$~XEYXXXEEXX~IXx3~~ixXE~
Senior Staff Member
National Security Council
Executive Office Building ETA 'I MXNXX$XXXXXX
W- Mr. Thomas Thornton
Staff Member
National Security Council
Executive Office Building
L/ ~ Mr. Peter G. Gould
Special Assistant to the Chairman
Council of Economic Advisers
Executive Office Building
Mr. Vincent Clephas
1 Executive Assistant to the
Special Representative for Trade
Negotiations
Executive Office Building
t,c Mr. Edward G. Sanders
Deputy Associate Director
International Affairs Division
Office of Management and Budget
New Executive Office Building
C The Honorable Anthony Lake
Director
Policy Planning Staff
Department of State
47,4 ~
Mr. Robert B. Duncan
Director. Economic Policy Staff
Bureau of African Affairs
Department of State
is. Joan R. Braden
Consumer Affairs Coordinator and
XTxX mam X 2 m
Special Assistant to the
Under Secretary for
Economic Affairs
fyDepartment of State
Moir. Philip R. Trimble
Assistant Legal Adviser
Department of State
Xf XX7j?X"X= XKXXX
S0 The Honorable Julius L. Katz ~~tExX~x~
Assistant Secretary x&EX11MX9
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
Department of State
Mr. Stephen Bosworth
1 Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Resources and Food Policy
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
Department of State
Mr. E. Allan Wendt
Director
Office of International Commodities
Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
Department of State
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
The Honorable Harold H..Saunders
Director
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
Mr. Hunter L. Estep
Director
Office of Research and Analysis for
the American Republics
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
Mr. Michael E. Ely
S Director
Office of Economic Research and Analysis
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State
/ Mr..Stephen H. Rogers
t~ Director, Regional Economic Policy
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
Department of State
Mr. Richard F. Weber
5 Director, South American Affairs
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
Department of State
Mr. Wade H. B. Matthews
Country Director, Central America
Bureau of Inter-American Affairs
Department of State
Mr. Roger E. Shields
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Research and Planning
Department of the Treasury
GO Mr. Arnold Nachmanoff
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Developing Nations Finance
Department of the Treasury
6"'Mr. J. Foster Collins
Special Assistant to the Secretary
(National Security)
Department of the Treasury
0
Mrs. Helen B. Junz
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Energy, Commodities and Policy
Planning
Department of the Treasury
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
Mr. Richard D. Crafton
Vice President for Latin America
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Mr. S. Stanley Katz
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of International Economic
Policy and Research
Department of Commerce
6(Q Mr. Edward Miller
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Energy, and Strategic
Resource Policy
Department of Commerce
Mr. David N. Laux
Room 3520, Main.Commerce
Department of Commerce
Mr. Stanley Marcus
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Regulatory Affairs
Department of Commerce
7/ Mr. W. Dean Moran
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Trade Promotion
Department of Commerce
The Honorable Dale Hathaway
Assistant Secretary
for International Affairs
and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Elmer Klumpp
Assistant to the Assistant
Secretary for International
Affairs and Commodity Programs
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Howard W. Hjort
Director
Economic Policy Analysis and Budget
Department of Agriculture
Mr. Thomas R. Hughes
Administrator
Foreign Agriculture Service
Department of Agriculture
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
Mr. Dawson Ahalt, Acting Chairman
World Food and Agricultural Outlook
and Situation Board
Department of Agriculture
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
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FORM
OBSOLETE PREVIOUS EDITIONS
9.70 2246
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 Approv
IF
UNCLASSIFIED O I
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
Ch, D/I
I
2
DD/OER -
------
3
ASA/ER
4
DSA/ER
zq
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5
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks :
Any additions or deletions to the
attached suggested elite dissem?
OLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
DSA/ER
/28/77
UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL
SECRET
FORM NO. 237 Use previous editions
1-67
0050001-1
Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 API'M
00457A000700050001-1
 Appro~ed For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
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R'Jc-RICAT01
'A000-700050001-4-
 ll PSI ( F OPOWI/ f I ~`5~ q~EiMPFRO EcLIGI -N CE
`GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
SECTION I
G
N A M E A N D T E L E P H O N E N U M B E R O F A N A L Y S T 25X1A
CARD1 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX}
CARD
TYPE SURVEY NO. DATE PUBLISHED PUBLICATION NUMBER FOR CRG ONLY
CIB PUBLICATION DATE
(1-2) L3-8) (9.121 (13-23) (13-18)
-MO
Y R liiL~ /J I I d M O DAY Y R
717 ~ t] -7 l il
PUBLICATION TITLE
(24.80)
24 52
F
-..
63 80
CARD 2 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXAXXXXXX/XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXl
CARD OFFICE (9-10)
TYPE SURVEY NO. 02 OER OA OGCR 07 O51 27 CRG
(1-2) (3-6) 03 OSR 06 OCR JOSOW( 28 ORPA
,., I
--
~ .)0 OIA 40 DIA 60 STATE 59 NSA
---_----_
- --
LI JOINT OFFICE (specify) I - - I
KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTION(S)-KIQ DOCUMENT TYPE (15-16)
11 12 13 14 04 IM 1 1 IH 15 TM 53 LI W
05 1.1 12 I S 3 2 N I D 60 5l) R V E Y O R
07 IR 13 RP 41 51D 61 WS
1ST KIQV 2ND KIQ 4 08 R 14 BR 51 1--
17 18 19 20
CLASSIFICATION: CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
Gt`Jf=t Ir riT t /~
TOPICAL CATEGORY GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western-.Europe
Military China
Science & Technology Other For East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: \n1 t U ~lj i~G'
TO BE COMPLETED BY.R & E
CONTROL NO.
TOPIC
AREA
(21-22)
(23-24)
(25-28)
Aaaro d For Riiease
____
0103f2 2 -._CIARDP79B004
Y ----A000700- -
57D050001-1
 25X1 B
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Approved For Release 2001/03/22 : CIA-RDP79B00457A000700050001-1
 kiHF OF REVIEW OF OER
NITIZATION APPROVAL
PUBLICATIONS FOR SECUh'1rY7S`A""
SUBJECT
ANALYST
ER 77-10471, Coffee
A Return to Normal
Outlook 1977-80
BRANCH
OER/I/AM
EXTENSION
1516R
SECURITY REVIEW
SANITIZING INSTRUCTIONS
ITEM DATE INITIALS REMOVE
UNEDITED DRAFT
EDITED DRAFT
STATINTL
DELETE
STATINTL
SUBSTITUTE
STATINTL
REMARKS
Okay to release
without deletions
or editing.
STATINTL
DSA ER
FORM 2358 OBSOLETE PREVIOUS
2-77 EDITIONS
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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