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THE SOVIET STATE BUDGET SINCE 1965

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December 1, 1977
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National ' prbentWor Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP791300457A000700140001-1 Assessment Center The Soviet State Budget Since 1965 A Research Paper ER 77-10529 December 1977 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30: ClAtRDP79B00457A000700140001-1 - This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government officials. The format, coverage and contents of the publication are designed to meet the specific requirements of those users. U.S. Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency. Non-U.S. Government users may obtain this along with similar CIA publications on a subscription basis by addressing inquiries to: Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project Exchange and Gift Division Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20540 Non-U.S. Government users not interested in the DOCEX Project subscription service may purchase reproductions of specific publications on an individual basis from: Photoduplication Service Library of Congress Washington, D.C. 20590 pprove or e ease Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 CONTENTS Page Preface iii Recent Developments 1 Revised Spending Priorities 1 Economic Reform 1 Scope of the Budget 3 Central Role 3 The Budget as an Economic Indicator 3 Expenditures 4 Financing the National Economy 6 Industry and Construction 7 Agriculture 8 Other Sectors 9 The Sectoral Residual Under Financing the National Economy 11 FNE, by End Use 12 Social-Cultural Measures 13 Science 14 Defense 15 Administration and Loan Service 17 Reserve Funds of the Councils of Ministers 18 The Budgetary Expenditures Residual 18 Revenues 19 Turnover Tax Receipts 19 Payments From Profits 20 Other Social Sector Revenues 21 Revenues from the Private Sector 23 The Budget Surplus 24 The Budgets of the Union-Republics of the USSR 25 CHARTS Page 1. USSR: Distribution of State Budget Expenditures 5 2. USSR: Major Sources of Budget Revenue 19 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 TABLES Page 1. USSR: Expenditures of the State Budget, Selected Years 4 2, USSR: Planned Expenditures for Financing the National Economy (All-Source Financing), Selected Years 7 3. USSR: Planned State Centralized Investment, by Source of Funds 8 4. USSR: Explicit Budget Outlays for Agriculture, by End Use 9 5. USSR: Budget Redistribution of Funds, by Major Branch of the Economy, Selected Years 10 6. USSR: Budget Financing of the National Economy, by End Use 12 7. USSR: Expenditures for Social-Cultural Measures in the State Budget, Selected Years 13 8. USSR: Expenditures for Science 15 9. USSR: Explicit Defense Expenditures 16 10. USSR: Budget Funds -Available- for Defense, 1970 17 11. USSR: Revenues of the State Budget, Selected Years 19 12. USSR: State Social Insurance Receipts and Expenditures 22 13, USSR: State Budget 24 14. USSR: Major Budget Expenditures of the Union-Republics 25 A-1. USSR: Expenditures of the State Budget 26 A-2. USSR: Planned Expenditures for Financing the National Economy (All-Source Financing) 28 A-3. USSR: Budget Redistribution of Funds, by Major Branch of the Economy 30 A-4. USSR: Expenditures for Social-Cultural Measures in the State Budget 32 A-5. USSR: Revenues of the State Budget 34 11 Approved For Release 21X16/01/30 : CIA-16P7S1n04-57A0110701401101 -1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Preface This paper surveys the major revenue and expenditure patterns of the USSR state budget from 1965 to 1977. It relates budgetary appropriations and receipts to changing Soviet economic priorities, and explains how the budget's role in the state financial system has evolved since the economic reforms of the mid-1960s. The research for this paper relied primarily on Soviet sources, particu- larly monographs by Soviet economic and financial experts, the budget speeches at the annual meetings of the Supreme Soviet, and the monthly journals of the Ministry of Finance (Finansy SSSR) and the State Bank (Dengi' i kredit). The statistical data base was developed from Narodnogo khozyaistvo SSSR, annual editions, and Gosudarstvennyi byudzhet SSSR i byudzheti soyuznikh respublik 1966-1970 and 1971-75. These sources were supple- mented as appropriate by the small but specialized Western literature on the Soviet budgetary system. This paper reflects information received as of 1 December 1977. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 The Soviet State Budget Since 1965 Central Intelligence Agency National Foreign Assessment Center December 1977 Recent Developments When Leonid Brezhnev and Aleksey Kosygin assumed power in 1964, they inherited economic problems that continue to plague the Soviet Union even today. These problems included a slowdown in the rate of economic growth, a severe disproportion between resources allocated to investment and defense and those allocated to consumption, and low productivity in both indus- try and agriculture. In response, the new leader- ship launched a four-pronged strategy: ? Upgraded substantially the priority given to consumer welfare, in goods, services, and real incomes. ? Revised national spending priorities, giving added emphasis to agriculture?a key ele- ment in consumer welfare. ? Instituted general price revisions that raised industrial and agricultural prices but held the line on retail prices for most consumer necessities. ? Introduced economic reforms that affected the ways in which producing enterprises were managed and financed. The Soviet state budget, as the principal mechanism for distributing national financial re- sources, has been the key instrument through which the leadership has implemented this strat- egy. The results are reflected in significant changes in the distribution of budget incomes and expenditures and their trends. Revised Spending Priorities The relatively higher priority accorded con- sumption over the past dozen years is reflected in state budget outlays in a number of ways. Since 1965, net budget allocations to consumer-on- 'Total allocations from the budget, less payments to the budget from profits. ented sectors?particularly agriculture?have more than tripled, while net allocations to indus- try and construction?the key producers of in- vestment and defense goods?have remained rel- atively stable. Agriculture was scheduled to be a net recipient of 17.2 billion rubles in 1977, compared with 5.2 billion rubles in 1965. In addition to large investments, the government has sought to boost food production by substantially raising procurement prices paid to farmers, while maintaining stable retail prices for consumers. As a consequence, the state budget has financed rapidly growing subsidies to the food processing industries, particularly in respect to meat and dairy products. These subsidies rose from 5.5 billion rubles in 1965 to over 19 billion rubles in 1976 and now constitute over 8 percent of total budget outlays. In addition to these consumption-reflected out- lays, the budget has financed rapidly growing expenditures on a variety of social welfare meas- ures. Since 1965, outlays for education, health, and cultural activities nearly doubled, reflecting in part the substantial wage increases granted to workers in these sectors. Budget expenditures on social insurance and related welfare programs rose two and a half times, reflecting substantial increases in pensions and the introduction of a new program of family allowances introduced in 1974. In addition, the state budget now finances a part of the cost of new pension and welfare programs for collective farmers, which were introduced in 1964 and expanded in 1970. Allo- cations to these programs rose from 0.4 billion rubles in 1965 to 2.8 billion rubles in 1976. Economic Reform The general economic reforms launched in 1965, along with subsequent modifications, made a number of changes in the system of organizing, managing, and financing the producing enter- prises. The purpose of the reforms was to raise Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 the efficiency of resource use, particularly in the industrial sector. To this end, (1) enterprises were given greater financial autonomy and decision- making authority; (2) profits and the profit rate were made important criteria in the system of incentives; (3) a charge was imposed for the use of enterprise capital?formerly largely an in- terest-free grant?and enterprises were to finance most of their investment out of retained profits; (4) prices were increased so as to raise the profit rate and facilitate self-finance; and (5) enterprises were to be organized into various types of associ- ations, which were expected to finance their activities from internal profits, a principle ulti- mately to be extended to the industrial ministries. These general economic reforms had an impact on both budget revenues and budget expendi- tures, with the most pronounced impact occur- ring during 1966-70. With respect to revenues, payments from profits of state enterprises re- placed the turnover tax as the most important source of budget income. This result stemmed from the increased profit allowances included in prices in the 1967 price reform, while the share of turnover tax in retail prices was reduced as a consequence of the government's policy of hold- ing the line on most retail prices for consumer goods. Also, profits now flow into the budget through three channels rather than one?pay- ment of the capital charge, fixed (rent) payments primarily from the extractive industries, and the so-called -free remainder- of profits remaining above those that enterprises are explicitly per- mitted to retain for self-finance and similar purposes. With respect to expenditures, the reforms sharply reduced the share of investment financed from the budget; in respect to total centralized state capital investment it fell from 61 percent in 1965 to 47 percent in 1970, after which it fluctuated between 47 and 49 percent. Besides investment, the reforms required enterprises to finance most of their own working capital and some other outlays that formerly would have required budget grants. Reflecting the increasing financial independence of enterprises, the budg- et's share in the total financial resources of enterprises in industry and construction fell from 51 percent in 1965 to 37 percent in 1969; since then it has fluctuated between 37 and 40 percent. The main reasons for the stability of the budget's role in enterprise finance, after its initial diminu- tion, are probably to be found in (1) rapidly rising costs, which have led to falling profit rates in the raw materials and extractive industries, necessi- tating budget aid, and (2) substantial decreases in machinery prices in 1970-73, which reduced the potential for increased financial independence in that sector. Aside from the enterprise level, the reform's intent to extend the principle of self-finance has been slow to be implemented. With the impetus of a Party-Government Decree in March 1973, however, the move to group enterprises into production associations and to group associations and enterprises into larger, financially autono- mous "industrial associations- has picked up speed. As of 1 April 1977, there were 3,450 such associations, which accounted for 45 percent of total industrial output.2 While the production associations are finan- cially autonomous, few of the industrial associ- ations, apparently, have achieved that status as yet. Extension of full financing to the ministry level is still in an embryonic stage. Under this approach, the ministry finances all of its activites, including investment and its own administrative outlays, from the profits of subordinate enter- prises, paying into the budget only a fixed share of these profits. Only one all-union ministry?the Ministry of Instrument Making, Automation Equipment, and Control Systems?and several republic-level units have been functioning under this system. Recently a decision was made to add three all-union machinery ministries to this list, and preparations are under way to add others.3 The extension of self-financing to all industrial ministries would substantially diminish the bud- get's role as a distributor of financial resources for this sector. However, adoption of self-finance will probably be slow in implementation, because of bureaucratic opposition and because profit levels in many ministries are inadequate. In this area, as in others, the role of the budget will be affected to an important extent by the nature and timing -Povoishat deistvennost khozraseheta," Plariovoye Khozyaistvo, No. 8, 1977, p. 24. Ibid., p. 26. 2 Approved 1-or Re1ease 2006/01130 :CTA:REMD800457A000700140601-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 of future price reforms, which currently are under discussion. Scope of the Budget Central Role The Soviet state budget is compiled by the Ministry of Finance. It is a consolidated budget that includes the all-union as well as the republic and local government budgets. It distributes a major portion of the national product within investment, defense, and consumption. The budget provides funds for capital investment, higher education, health, recreation, pensions, and many other activities that are usually financed largely from the private sector in West- ern economies. The budget, the central component of the overall state financial plan, reflects in value terms the physical priorities of the annual economic plan. Both the plan and the budget are presented and approved at the end-of-year meeting of the Supreme Soviet. The financial resources are then allocated to the subordinate agencies, and the expenditures are monitored by the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank.' The Budget as an Economic Indicator While general economic policies are corrobo- rated by published budget data, budget data alone shed little advance light on new directions in the economy. The kinds of budget statistics that might signal key economic policy shifts are not announced?for example, outlays for the light, food, and other consumer goods industries; investment in defense industries; and the func- tional distribution of science funds. In addition, there are serious deficiencies in the reliability of the published budget data. The explicit defense budget in particular is virtually useless as an analytical tool; actual defense out- lays are estimated to be perhaps three times greater than announced. The decline in the 'An excellent detailed analysis of the state budget and its role in the state financial system is found in Daniel Gallik, et al., The Soviet Fintncial System: Structure, Operation and Statistics, US Depart- ment of Commerce, International Population Statistics Reports, series p-90, No. 23, 1968. 3 announced defense budget during the 1970s, moreover, is inconsistent with the observed expansion of Soviet strategic, theater, and naval strength. (See the section on -Defense,- below). In contrast to defense expenditures, the Soviets provide considerably more detail on the financ- ing of social and cultural programs?although a minuscule amount by Western standards. Finan- cial policy in these less sensitive areas of national policy is more fully reflected in the published budget. Here as elsewhere, however, the analyt- ical utility of the budget data is constrained by several factors: Aggregation. The annual budget speeches and statistical handbooks provide little detailed infor- mation on the planned and actual budgets. The handbooks, for example, include only three to five pages of highly aggregated budget informa- tion. In comparison, other Communist states? Poland, for example?publish considerably more data, especially on such critical policy areas as investments, defense, subsidies, foreign trade, and science. Unidentified Categories. Large sums are in- cluded in the budget as unspecified expenditure and revenue residuals. The scope of these rapidly growing categories can only be suggested. Ambiguity and Changes. Budget methodology changes have never been thoroughly explained and are rarely announced. For example, at least three different science budget series have been published since the early 1960s, with little or no explanation. Incompleteness. Although it comprises more than 50,000 local and republic budgets as well as the all-union outlays, the state budget is only one part of the state's consolidated financial plan, albeit the largest. 5 In several important areas, notably investment and science, the budget's expenditure role has been sharply reduced, fur- ther limiting its analytical usefulness. The consolidated financial plan is compiled by the Financial Department of the State Planning Committee (Gosplan), probably with the assistance of the Ministry of Finance. The plan reflects the resources of the state budget, the financial accumulations of state enterprises and organizations, and other centralized funds. Almost no details have been made available on the plan. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Expenditures From 1965 to 1976, total expenditures from the state budget more than doubled, and grew at an average annual rate of 7.6 percent (see table 1). Like most developed Western nations, the USSR's actual budgetary expenditures have generally exceeded planned outlays. The Soviet deviation from plan, however, has been small, averaging only 3 percent a year, and only once-1970-did it exceed 5 percent. Apparently, above-plan rev- enues have prompted upward revisions in the budget expenditures. Above-plan outlays may also mean that budget financing has not been supplanted by the intended fuller use of bank credits and enterprise self-financing (as called for in the 1965 economic reforms). In any case, Soviet adherence to planned budget expenditures is remarkable by Western standards and results from the enormous amount of centralized con- trol. Rigid control by state financial organs over prices, wages, and financial allocations has en- abled planners to avoid deficit budget financing, serious inflation, and other problems faced by market economies. Economic organizations in the USSR are not equally dependent on the state budget. Some budget appropriations support institutions almost completely dependent on the budget for funds- for example, schools and hospitals, military instal- lations, and state agencies. These institutions are financed through the categories Social-Cultural Measures (SCM), Defense, and Administration, Table 1 USSR: Expenditures of the State Budget ' Selected Years Billion Current Rubles 1965 Actual 1970 Actual 1975 Actual 1976 Actual 1977 Plan Total 101.62 154.60 214.52 226.7 238.73 Financing the national economy 44.92 74.55 110.70 118.5 123.39 Industry and construction 20.99 3053 47.01 NA 49.1 Agriculture and procurement 6.77 12.37 19.08 NA 19.4 Trade 2.27 6.26 4.43 NA 4.4 Transportation and communications 2.83 3.11 4.96 NA 5.3 Municipal economy and housing 4.23 6.46 8.80 NA 9.2 Residual 7.82 15.82 26.42 NA 36.0 Social-cultural measures 38.16 55.94 77.04 80.7 83.85 Education, science, and culture 17.51 24.77 32.79 33.8 34.8 Health and physical culture 6.67 9.28 11.47 11.8 12.0 Social welfare measures 13.98 21.89 32.78 35.1 37.1 Defense ' 12.78 17.85 17.43 17.4 17.23 Administration 1.28 1.66 2.01 2.1 2.03 Loan service 0.10 0.10 1.10 1.3 1.30 Budgetary expenditures residual and reserve funds of the Councils of Ministers ? 4.38 4.50 6.24 6.7 10.93 I For complete data for 1965-77, actual and plan, see table A-1 in the appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Not available. Estimated. Probably excluding outlays for most of military research and development (R&D), space, internal security forces, procurement of major weapons systems, and possibly other defense related items. Including financing for all local and central government agencies, such as planning and financial bodies, ministries, government departments, and the courts and judicial organs. ? The budget plan measure includes Reserve Funds of the Councils of Ministers. Presumably, these are normally reclassified under the functional budget categories in the actual budget; that is, the plan measure includes both the Reserve Funds and the expenditures residual. The actual measure includes only the expenditures residual. 4 or e ease116/11/30: CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 respectively. In contrast, the category Financing the National Economy (FNE) deals basically with state industrial, construction, agricultural, trade, and other enterprises that are independent ac- counting units operating on the principle of economic accountability (khozraschet). The distinction between khozraschet and bud- get-dependent institutions and organizations is not always clear-cut. Although theoretically self- supporting, with their own settlement accounts in the State Bank (Gosbank) and independent bal- ance sheets, khozraschet enterprises can still re- ceive support from the budget for investment, working capital, subsidies, and other purposes? even when they make a profit. Under Brezhnev, there have been several nota- ble trends in the distribution of major budget outlays (see figure 1): ? Expenditures under FNE constitute the largest single block of budget outlays, rising from 44 percent of budget expenditures in 1965 to 52 percent in 1976. Moreover, non- budgetary sources of financing FNE have also grown, and have represented a majority of the planned sources of financing FNE since 1969. These trends indicate that FNE is receiving a steadily growing share of all state financial resources. ? The share of the budget allocated for Social-Cultural Measures (SCM) has declined USSR: Distribution of State Budget Expenditures Percent 100 ? mmaa,?????????????'"' Other Explicit Defense Social-Cultural Measures Figure 1 ti?re?Natio/11:11to 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 57491412-77 5 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 slightly, from 38 percent to 35 percent dur- ing 1965-76. Nonbudget resources of enter- prises and organizations, trade unions, and collective farms have recently played a greater role in financing educational, scienti- fic, cultural, and other activities. However, the state budget still provides over three- fourths of the total all-source funding for SCM expenditures. ? Explicit defense outlays have dropped from 12.6 percent of budget expenditures in 1965 to 7.7 percent in 1976. However, the announced defense budget could not cover all Soviet defense programs. For example, CIA estimates that Soviet defense spending for 1976?defined to include roughly the same range of activities encompassed in the US defense budget?totaled 52 billion to 57 billion rubles (when measured in constant 1970 prices), compared with the announced defense budget of only 17.4 billion rubles (in current prices).6 The difference was fi- nanced presumably from other nondefense budget categories (primarily FNE and sci- ence) and possibly from nonbudget resources as well (for example, a portion of military- related science). (See the section on "Sci- ence,- below). ? Major unidentified budget categories?the FNE and Budgetary Expenditures Residu- als?have risen under Brezhnev and could reach 20 percent of total budget spending in 1977. The residuals appear because the re- gime wishes to conceal certain types of expenditures (defense-related outlays, for ex- ample) or because it feels that publication of the residual outlays would serve no useful purpose. In any event, while some of the components of the residuals can be tenta- tively established, the size of most of the individual items cannot be estimated with confidence. Financing the National Economy FNE now accounts for more than one-half of total budget expenditures compared with 44 per- 'US Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Allocation of Re- sources in the Soviet Union and China-1977, Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1977, p.7. 6 cent in 1965. Among the expenditures under FNE, financed partly or in full by the budget, are the following: ? Capital investment. ? The expansion and covering shortages of working capital. ? Capital repair. ? Certain operational expenses not covered completely in the cost of production, such as geological survey, product designing prepara- tion of test models (prototypes), and the intro- duction of new techniques. ? Subsidies for the sale of agricultural ?and other products and for enterprises with planned losses. ? Formation of "state material reserves," which consist of (1) stockpiles of goods kept for use in case of national emergency and (2) stockpiles of materials used to supplement or replenish stocks of working capital (inven- tories) at production units. In keeping with the 1965 economic reform's encouragement of enterprise self-financing, bud- get funds fell as a percent of planned all-source FNE?from 56 percent in 1965 to 49 percent in 1970 (see table 2). Since 1970 it has remained at about this level. In general, budget financing of investment and working capital is supposed to be reserved for newly created enterprises. The shift from budget to nonbudgetary financ- ing was especially pronounced in industry and construction, where the share of planned financ- ing from budget funds fell from 51 percent in 1965 to 37 percent in 1969 before leveling off. The budget's share of planned FNE funding for agriculture has been far more volatile, ranging from a high of 56 percent in 1965 to a low of 44 percent in 1972. Capital investment is the largest individual outlay of FNE?about one-third of the total?but it has declined in importance since 1965. Enter- prises are supposed to finance increasingly their new construction from their own retained profits, from bank loans, and from amortization al- lowances (see table 3). During 1969-76, for exam- ple, the budget plan provided 47 to 49 percent of Approveu i-or Release 2006/01/30 : C1A-RDPI9B00457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 2 USSR: Planned Expenditures for Financing the National Economy (All-Source Financing)' Selected Years Percent 1965 1970 1975 1976 1977 Total 100 100 100 100 100 From the budget 56 49 49 50 49 From other sources 44 51 51 50 51 Industry and construction From the budget 51 37 38 40 38 From other sources 49 63 62 60 62 Agriculture and procure- ment From the budget 56 49 47 49 47 From other sources 44 51 53 51 53 Trade From the budget 69 82 NA NA 62 From other sources 31 18 NA NA 38 Transportation and communications From the budget 35 23 24 25 26 From other sources 65 77 76 75 74 Municipal economy and housing From the budget 88 NA NA 83 NA From other sources 12 NA NA 17 NA Residual From the budget 78 NA NA NA NA From other sources 22 NA NA NA NA For complete data, including values in rubles, for 1965-77, see table A-2 in the appendix. Excluding collective farms. centrally planned state investment, compared with 61 percent in 1965. To make greater self- financing possible, product prices were raised in the 1967 reform and amortization rates were raised sharply in 1975. In an effort to tighten control over investment resources, beginning in 1977 the state plan for capital investment will include investment funded from noncentralized sources such as en- terprise funds for development of production.7 Under this broader concept, the share of total investment financing provided by the state bud- get will fall to about 41 percent in 1977. In the past decade, budget grants to enterprises for financing working capital have also been 'V. F. Garbuzov, "Byudzhet vtorogo goda pyatiletki," Finansy SSSR, No. 12, 1976, p. 13. 7 reduced in importance.8 Enterprises have been instructed to rely more on nonbudget sources of working capital, such as short-term bank credits. -Own and equivalent" working capital?which includes budget grants, funds received from su- perior organizations, receipts from the sale of fixed assests, and other sources?has declined for the economy as a whole from 38 percent of the sources of working capital in 1965 to 27 percent in 1976. Industry and Construction Industry and construction, the largest category under FNE, accounts for about 40 percent of the total and roughly one-fifth of all budget expendi- tures. It grew at an annual average rate of 8.4 percent between 1965 and 1975 and then at a planned rate of 7.7 percent through 1977. The largest single allocation is believed to be for centralized capital investment by the indus- trial ministries?about 10 billion to 12 billion rubles in 1975.9 Other allocations are made for capital repair, for the expansion and covering of shortages of working capital, for operational ex- penditures not covered by the cost of production (for example, prototype development and test- ing), and for other outlays of both civilian and military nature. A portion of the price subsidies for production and sale of meat, processed dairy products, and other food products probably is included in the all-union budget appropriation to the food proc- essing industries. The remainder evidently is concealed in the union-republics' portion of the calculated residual under FNE." The total of 'An excellent discussion of the sources and accounting of working capital is contained in Structure and Accounting of Working Capital in the USSR, US Department of Commerce, International Population Statistics Reports, series P-95, No. 70, 1972. Calculated on the basis of data in V. L. Perlamutrov and L. V. Braginsky, "Kreditno-finansoviye richagi khozrascheta,- Ekono- rnika i organizatsia promyshlennovo proizvodstva, No. 1, 1975, p. 62. 'The handling of the many kinds of subsidies in the state budget is a complex and poorly understood issue. The available information, moreover, often is subject to conflicting interpretations. The above discussion of the handling of agricultural price subsidies is based in part on information from V. N. Maslennikov and V. M. Afremov, Ekonomicheskiye metodi opredeleniya renta- belnost v promyshlennosti, Moscow, 1975, pp. 115-164, and V. N. Semenov, Rol' finansov I kredita v razvitii selskogo khozyaistvo, Moscow, 1973, pp. 248-264. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 3 USSR: Planned State Centralized Investment, by Source of Funds ' 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Billion Current Rubles 1973 1974 1975 1976 Centralized in- vestment from 38.7 40.6 41.3 43.6 52.5 54.4 64.0 67.0 70.5 78.0 85.4 88.3 Budget 23.5 22.8 22.2 23.1 25.5 25.8 30.3 31.5 33.7 37.2 40,5 43.6 Profit 4.4 3.8 NA 6.4 12.4 12.0 12.7 13.0 11.3 13.1 13.8 13.2 Amortization 9.2 10.4 NA 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.9 14.4 16.1 17.0 22.7 24.4 Other 2 1.6 3.6 NA 2.5 3.1 4.5 8.1 8.1 9.4 10.7 8.4 7.1 Percent Share of centralized investment fi- nanced by the budget 61 56 54 53 49 47 47 47 48 48 47 49 I Including (I) additions to working capital of construction organizations and (2) outlays for project planning. For example, long-term credits and mobilization of internal reserves in construction. these agricultural price subsidies increased from an estimated 5.5 billion rubles in 1965 to about 19 billion rubles in 1976." This growth resulted from the leadership's policy of keeping the retail prices of staple foods unchanged while sharply increasing prices paid to farms for agricultural products. The difference between the state pur- chase price and the accounting price at which the food processing industry enters the product in its production costs is financed from the state budget. 12 The changes since 1965 in the financing of industry and construction have reflected the lead- ership's attempt to maintain overall control of investment flows while permitting enterprises greater freedom in financing their operations. On the one hand, more than three-fourths of the state budget allocation to these sectors currently flows " According to N. Glushkov, chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers' State Prices Committee, budget subsidies for meat and milk products in 1975 totaled "almost 19 billion rubles." Pravda, 8 February 1977, p. 2. These subsidies are scheduled to total 100 billion rubles during the 1976-80 plan period. See V. Garbuzov, "Finansovaya politika KPSS," Planovoye Khozyaistvo, No. 7, 1977, p. 17. IS V. N. Semenov, "Finansirovaniye selskogo khozyaistvo," Fin- ansy SSSR, No. 5, 1974, p. 45; also, V. I. Vesbland, "Ob ekonomi- cheskoi prirode byudzhetnogo regulirovaniya raznits v tsenakh," lzvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR: seriya ekonomicheskaya, No. 5, 1975, pp. 66-67. 8 from the all-union budget, compared with 38 percent in 1965. This development was a conse- quence of the recentralization of control over heavy industry and other important activities- located primarily in the RSFSR-that occurred soon after Brezhnev gained power. On the other hand, reliance on nonbudgetary sources of fi- nancing steadily grew from 49 percent of planned all-source financing in 1965 to 63 per- cent in 1969 and has stabilized subsequently at 60 to 64 percent. This pattern suggests that, while nonbudgetary sources for investments, such as enterprise profits and amortization deductions, have continued to grow, it has also been necessary ? in the 1970s to increase-in the sectors industry and construction-budgetary outlays for invest- ments, price subsidies, and other activities pri- marily of an all-union significance (including some military-related activities). Agriculture The increased priority given agriculture under Brezhnev is reflected in budget allocations for the sector which increased from 7 billion rubles in 1965 to 19.4 billion rubles in 1977 (plan). Never- theless, budget outlays have declined as a share of the total planned financing of this sector, from 56 percent to 47 percent during the same period. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 4 USSR: Explicit Budget Outlays for Agriculture, by End Use ' 1966-70 (Billion Rubles) Percent 1971-75 (Billion Rubles) Percent 1976-80 Plan (Billion Rubles) Percent Total 45.90 100 75.60 2 100 107.00 100 Capital invest- ment 8 23.41 51 42.36 56 62.06 58 Development of the basic herd 0.46 1 1.51 2 2.14 2 Increase in work- ing capital 2.75 6 2.27 3 1.07 Operational ex- penses 6.89 15 11.34 15 14.98 14 Other ' 12.39 27 18.14 24 26.75 25 V. Semenov, Ekonomicheskiye nauki, No. 8, 1976, p. 46, and V. Semenov, "Finansy selskogo khozyaistvo v desyatoy pyatiletkye," Finansy SSSR, No. 6, 1977, pp. 21, 23. This figure presumably represented a preliminary estimate by Semenov of actual budget allocations to agriculture. According to more recent information, budget outlays during 1971-75 totaled 78.4 billion rubles. Including capital investment on state farms, land reclamation work at both state and collective farms, and other investment outlays. ' Including funds to help liquidate bank loans, allocations to cover losses from the sale of products and losses in housing and communal services, and numerous other end uses. The rapid inflow of budget resources is largely the result of the continuing effort to stimulate f arm output by increasing the financial health of agriculture in general and the state farms in particular. Higher procurement prices on major grains and dairy products and bonuses for above- plan sales to the state also reduced the need for direct budget subsidies to state farms. The budget entry for agriculture includes funds for the Ministry of Agriculture, the Minis- try of Procurement, and numerous other state agencies.'3 Funds are also included for the All- Union Farm Machinery Association (Soyuzsel- khoztekhnika) which supplies state and collective farms with machinery, spare parts, fertilizer, and other production essentials. The prices paid by the farms for many of these products are subsi- dized indirectly through an appropriation to Soyuzselkhoztekhnika. The 1976 planned budget, for example, included 2.1 billion rubles in price subsidies for mineral fertilizers, tractors, com- bines, and other agricultural equipment sold to state and collective farms." " For example, the Ministries of Land Amelioration, Water Economy, and Forestry. V. V. Lavrov and K. N. Plotnikov, Gosu- darstvennyi byudzhet SSSR, Moscow, 1975, p. 197. " V. Semenov, "Voprosii finansirovaniya i kreditovaniya selskogo khozyaistvo," Ekonomicheskiye naukt, No. 8, 1976, pp. 53-54. 9 Like the other sectoral allocations under FNE, the largest portion of budget funds for agricul- ture goes to finance capital investment. Other end uses include the expansion of working capi- tal, formation of livestock herds, land improve- ment, and other activities of the state farms (see table 4). In addition, both state and collective farms are assisted through budget financing of land reclamation work, research in the control of plant and animal diseases, and general overhead investment by the state. Brezhnev's commitment in 1965 to raise the priority of the agricultural sector and thereby improve the consumers' diet is further evidenced by the sector's position as a net recipient of budget funds (see table 5). The 1965 budget allocation to agriculture was 5.2 billion rubles more than that sector's payments into the budget from profits. By 1975, however, this net position had jumped to 16.6 billion rubles, the result of the steady inflow of budget resources for invest- ment as well as the leadership's policy of leaving greater profits at the disposal of the state farms operating on khozraschet. Other Sectors The other sectors announced under FNE (trade, transportation and communications, and Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 5 USSR: Budget Redistribution of Funds by Major Branch of the Economy ' Selected Years Billion Current Rubles Industry and construction 1965 Actual 1970 Actual 1975 Actual 1976 Plan 1977 Plan Budget allocation 21.0 30.5 47.0 48.0 49.1 Payments from profits . 19.0 37.5 46.3 44.3 50.3 Net contribution to the budget -2.0 7.0 -0.7 -3.7 1.2 Agriculture and procurement Budget allocation 6.8 12.4 19.1 18.3 19.4 Payments from profits 1.6 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.2 Net contribution to the budget -5.2 -10.1 -16.6 -16.4 -17.2 Trade Budget allocation 2.3 6.3 4.4 442 4.4 Payments from profits 0.7 1.3 1.9 NA 1.7 Net contribution to the budget -1.6 -5.0 -2.5 NA -2.7 Transportation and communications Budget allocation 2.8 3.1 5.0 4.9 5.3 Payments from profits 5.3 7.6 10.5 10.1 11.7 Net contribution to the budget 2.5 4.5 5.5 5.2 6.4 Municipal economy and housing Budget allocation 4.2 6.5 8.8 8.2 9.2 Payments from profits 0.9 1.6 2.5 1.6 1.8 Net contribution to the budget -3.3 -4.9 -6.3 -6.6 742 For complete data for 1965-77, actual and plan, see table A-3 in the appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 'Estimated. municipal economy and housing) typically ac- count for less than 10 percent of budget expenditures. Budget financing for trade rose from 2.3 bil- lion rubles in 1965 to 6.8 billion rubles in 1973, subsequently declining to 4 billion rubles annual- ly through 1977 (plan). Prior to 1974, the trade appropriation presumably covered both foreign and domestic trade operations and possibly mate- rial-technical supply as well.' 5 The sharp drop in budget funds since 1973 suggests that the scope of this budget category has been redrawn. No infor- " The State Committee for Material-Technical Supply (Gossnab) was created in 1965 to plan, allocate, and distribute materials and equipment to producer enterprises. 10 mation on this change has been announced. Several activities that had been financed pre- viously through the sectoral allocation to trade may now be included in the unexplained FNE residual, which rose in 1974 by roughly the amount of the 1974 reduction in trade. Among the important end uses of budget funds for trade are working capital, investment, -the carrying out of foreign trade operations for ex- ports and imports of goods,"" and subsidies. For example, a budget allocation covers a share of the losses from the sale of outmoded and irregular 16 V. A. Yevdokimov, Kontro/ za ispolneniyem gosudarstvennogo byudzheta SSSR, Moscow, 1974, p. 160. Unfortunately, the Soviets have released little data on the definition and amounts of the budgetary appropriations for foreign trade. Approved I-or Release 206/0/30: CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 goods at discount (1.9 billion rubles during 1971- 75).17 Budget outlays for transportation and commu- nications have risen gradually from 2.8 billion rubles in 1965 to a planned 5.3 billion rubles in 1977. Approximately 90 percent of these funds finance investment and other activities in the transportation sector. As a whole, the budget now provides only one-fourth of the total financing of transportation and communications (compared with more than one-third in 1965), illustrating the greater reliance on enterprise-retained profits and other nonbudgetary resources for investment financing and for working capital. Budget outlays for housing (owned by local Soviets) and the municipal economy are con- tained entirely in the union-republican budgets. These appropriations have more than doubled since 1965, to an estimated 9.2 billion rubles in the 1977 plan. The municipal economy compo- nent covers city services (sanitation facilities, water, and sewer systems), maintenance on roads and bridges, street lighting, and other urban services." The housing portion finances capital investment, capital repair and other activities in apartment complexes, warehouses, and supply organizations and supports warehouses and of- fices that are leased to other organizations. The housing appropriation also contains a state oper- ating subsidy for current repair in housing and other purposes." Budget funds for housing are supplemented by the resources of enterprises and collective farms which finance housing activities from profits.2? '7 Ye. N. Fonarev, "0 sovershenstvovanii poryadka formirovaniya i raskhodovaniya finansovykh resursov na utsenku tovarov," Fin- ansy SSSR, No. 7, 1976, p. 41. 18 In 1975, responsibility for urban subway systems was trans- ferred from the city Soviets to the Ministry of Railroads. Presum- ably, budget funds for subways were also shifted from the Commu- nal Economy line to the Transportation appropriation. See /zvestiya, 5 June 1975, p. 3. '2 Z. Kh. Rusin and L. L. Aydinov, Gosudarstvennyi byudzhet SSSR, Moscow, 1969, p. 212, and Lavrov and Plotnikov, pp. 222, 226. 20 In 1972, for example, 1.6 billion rubles from the profits of all enterprises and organizations was directed toward covering the losses of the housing and communal economies. See V. Garbuzov, "Gosudarstvennyi byudzhet 1972 goda i zadachi finorganov," Fin- ansy SSSR, No. 1, 1972, p. 7. 11 The Sectoral Residual Under Financing the National Economy An ENE residual is calculated as the amount remaining after the several announced appropri- ations have been accounted for under FNE. The residual probably covers a specific but unpub- lished group of budget expenditures; it is neither a reserve (or balancing) account nor a budget entry whose components vary considerably from year to year. The residual is believed to include expenditures for: ? Additions to state material reserves (of both civilian and military-related goods) 21 ? Special accounts for price regulation (to cover enterprise losses due to unforeseen price changes). ? Any economic sectors, ministries, and agen- cies not included in the announced allocations under FNE (for example, Inturist). In addition, any budget subsidies on agricultural products that were not treated as subsidies to the food processing industry would probably be includ- ed in this residual. The FNE residual is one of the fastest growing categories of the state budget, rising from 7.8 billion rubles in 1965 to 36 billion rubles in the 1977 plan. The residual now comprises about 15 percent of all budget expenditures.22 Western observers have long believed that defense-related outlays are concealed in the FNE residual.23 This suspicion initially was kindled by the scarcity of information on the composition of the residual and more recently by the inconsisten- cy between a declining announced defense bud- get and the expanding defense programs. (See the section on -Defense,- below). There are numerous hypotheses on the meth- ods by which sizable defense-related activities could be concealed in the residual. For example, 2` Before World War II, these funds were included in the allocation to the Administration of State Reserves under the Council of Peoples Commissars?today, the Main Administration of State Material Reserves under the Council of Ministers. There are no indications that these outlays have ever been part of the announced sectoral appropriations. " In contrast, the FNE residual in the period before World War II and through the mid-1960s typically comprised only 5 percent to 6 percent of budget expenditures. " CIA/ER 60-37, The 1960 Soviet Budget, Nov. 1960, p. 13. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 if Soviet budget accounting considers military production as an investment-type good, some procurement of weapons and other materials could be financed logically from an FNE appro- priation. These funds could be hidden in the residual by charging military production to state reserves.' 4 FNE, by End Use Soviet budget statistics can give only a partial picture of the distribution of national output by end use, mainly because expenditures are fi- " Writing in a journal of the Ministry of Defense, one Soviet writer has suggested that this kind of financial arrangement was in effect for the procurement of tanks prior to World War IL See G. Solyus, "Finansovaya sluzhba v velikoy otechestvennoy voinne," Voyenno-istoricheskii zhurna/, No. 5, 1969, pp. 104-105. nanced increasingly by nonbudgetary sources. It is possible, however, to make estimates of some of the major end uses of budget FNE appropri- ations, including investment, working capital, capital repair, subsidies, operational outlays, and "other expenditures.- Because official Soviet sta- tistics are not published in this form, the esti- mates in table 6 represent general orders of magnitude rather than precise sums. The table shows that fully one-fourth of annual budget FNE during 1970-75 is unaccountable on a functional basis. Available data do not permit this exercise to be done for the immediate postre- form years, but CIA estimates for earlier years indicate that between one-fourth and one-third of Table 6 USSR: Budget Financing of the National Economy, by End-Use ' 1970 1971 1972 1973 Billion Current Rubles 1974 1975 Total, of which: ...... 75 80 85 91 100 111 Investment 25-27 28-30 29-31 33-34 34-36 37-39 Working capital 3-4 2-3 3-4 3-4 3-4 3-4 Capital repair 2-3 3-4 3-4 3-4 4-5 4-5 Subsidies 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 Operational outlays ' 4-5 7-8 8-9 8-9 9-10 11-12 Other expenditures 18-24 16-22 17-23 19-24 23-29 28-34 Midpoint of "other expenditures" 21 19 20 22 26 31 Percent Midpoint of "other expenditures" as a share of financing the national econ- omy 28 24 24 24 26 28 Estimated. This table is based largely on V. A. Yevdokimov's unprecedented distribution of budget FNE funds to khozraschet enterprises and organizations. (Yevdokimov, p. 141). These data were supplemented as appropriate with information from other Soviet sources. Yevdoki- mov is the chief editor of Finansy SSSR, the monthly journal of the Ministry of Finance. Including centralized and decentralized capital investments. Including subsidies to retail trade system to cover losses, price subsidies to Soyuzselkhoztekh- nika, and subsidies to the light and food processing industries for state purchase and sale of agricultural products. ' Budget funds for operational expenditures cover certain activities whose costs are not entirely included in the cost of production; for example, maintenance of waterways and hydrotechnical installations, geological survey work, prototype fabrication, test and evaluation, and sundry other expenditures. Including some civilian and military-related additions to state material reserves, subsidies to planned-loss enterprises, subsidies for foreign trade operations, compensation for wage reform expenditures in sectors of the national economy, and other measures. 12 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140 01-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 FNE is unidentified when FNE is residualized by end use.25 Among the items in "other expenditures- are the maintenance and expansion of state material reserves, outlays for foreign trade operations (both import and export), expenditures for wage reform in certain sectors of the economy, gold purchases, starting outlays of various types for new enterprises, subsidies for planned loss enter- prises, bonuses, and other outlays." The largest single item in the end use residual may be additions to state reserves (financed under an allocation to the Main Administration of State Material Reserves). These goods "include industrial, agricultural, transport, food and de- fense, and other types of reserves.- " The de- fense-related reserves may include food and non- food items such as fuel and clothing. But, in addition, it is likely that "reserves of the means of defense which have a special character- " are financed under FNE and could include weapons. A plausible but unproved hypothesis is that pro- curement of some weapons is financed through the state reserves system. Social-Cultural Measures Budget expenditures on SCM rose from 38.2 billion rubles in 1965 to 80.7 billion rubles in 1976, an average annual rate of 7.0 percent (see table 7). SCM covers a broad range of public services and activities: pensions, welfare pay- ments, sick and maternity pay, education and medical services, recreation and cultural activi- ties, and science. Despite the steady growth of SCM funding from the state budget, its share in total budget expenditures has declined under Brezhnev, from 38 percent in 1965 to 35 percent in the 1977 planned budget. This development is explained by (a) the demands of the national economy as well as military programs, (b) the greater role of " CIA/ER 60-37, p. 20. William T. Lee has examined recently this question of the FNE end use residual in his "Soviet Defense Expenditures," Osteuropa Wirtschaft, June 1976, pp. 118-122. 26 Yevdokimov, pp. 141, 160; also Franklyn D. Holzman, Finan- cial Checks on Soviet Defense Expenditures, Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Company, 1975, p. 90. 27 A. V. Bachurin, Finansy I krectit SSSR, Moscow, 1958, p. 148. 2' M. Z. Bor, Balans narodnogo khozyaistvo SSSR, Moscow, 1956, p. 97. 13 Table 7 USSR: Expenditures for Social-Cultural Measures in the State Budget ' Selected Years Billion Current Rubles 1965 1970 1975 1976 Total ..... ....... ...... 38.16 55.94 77.04 80.74 Education, science, and culture,' of which: 17.51 24.77 32.79 33.79 General education 8.31 10.75 13.85 14.28 Cultural-enlightenment work 0.42 0.70 0.98 1.04 Training of cadres 3.25 4.85 7.02 7.39 Science 4.13 6.43 7.89 7.90 Publishing 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.15 Art and broadcasting 0.30 0.63 1.12 1.18 Health and physical cul- ture,' of which: ...... 6.67 9.28 11.47 11.85 Health 6.39 8.74 10.49 10.85 Physical culture 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.07 Social welfare measures 13.98 21.89 32.78 35.10 Social security, of which: 9.05 12.74 18.17 19.21 From state social in- surance 6.50 9.77 14.34 15.24 State social insurance 4.04 7.33 11.85 12.75 Aid to mothers ...... 0.46 0.44 0.39 0.37 For collective farmers' welfare fund ...... 0.44 1.38 2.38 2.77 For complete data for 1965-76, actual and plan, see table A-4 in the appendix. Components exclude capital investment. nonbudgetary resources in financing SCM, and (c) the slower relative growth of SCM outlays. Since 1965, SCM activities have been financed increasingly from the resources of state, coopera- tive, trade union, and similar organizations, as well as collective farms. The state budget pro- vided 79 percent of the all-source funding of SCM in 1976, down from 84 percent in 1965. The growth in SCM outlays over the past decade reflects measures taken to raise real in- comes, particularly by means of the social insur- ance and social security programs. These latter expenditures more than doubled during 1966-76, largely owing to: ? Rising pension and welfare grants, which are tied to workers' earnings.29 About 46 million 25 The average monthly wage for all workers rose from 96.5 rubles in 1965 to 151.4 rubles in 1976. Also, the minimum pension for industrial workers was raised in 1971 from 30 rubles to 45 rubles per month. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 people, or almost 18 percent of the population, are receiving pensions in 1977?compared with 26 million pensioners, or 11 percent of the population in 1965. ? Wider coverage of existing benefits such as the extension of pension privileges to collective farm workers in 1965. The state budget pro- vided almost 2.4 billion rubles to this pension fund in 1975, underwriting about two-thirds of the program's cost, with collective farms con- tributing the remaining portion. Almost 12 million collective farmers received pensions in 1976-4 million more than in 1966, the first full year of the farmers' pension program. ? The introduction of new programs, such as the 1974 announced program of children's allowances to low-income families. The cost of this program may be about 1.8 billion rubles." The second largest boost in SCM outlays was a 93-percent increase between 1965 and 1976 in education, science, and culture. With the excep- tion of -science- (described in the following section), these funds are contained largely in the republican and local budgets; for example, 85 percent of the budget allocation for education and culture, including the financing of schools, agitation-propaganda work, art and broadcasting, is channeled through republican and local budgets. The budget appropriation for health and phys- ical culture rose 78 percent during 1966-76. The appropriation for physical culture is quite small?only 70 million rubles in 1976. Budget spending for health care, 10 billion to 11 billion rubles in recent years, provides three-quarters of the all-source funding for this activity. Like education and cultural activities, health services are planned and financed primarily at the local governmental levels. In 1975, for example, 88 percent of budget outlays for health were con- tained in the local budgets, 7 percent in the republican budgets, and only 5 percent in the all- union budget.' " A. Skachko, Profaktivu o gosudarstvennom byudzhete, Mos- cow, 1976, P. 65. "It is suspected that the small all-union allocations for health services, education, and culture contain military-related funds. 14 Science 32 The state science budget warrants special at-. tention: it is the primary source of financing basic research, and it is believed to finance a large portion of military and civilian research, develop- ment, testing, and evaluation (RDT &E) and space programs. Some military-related science outlays are be- lieved to be financed from the all-union science budget?which comprises more than 90 percent of the total budget allocation?although precise knowledge of the amounts involved and their coverage is not available. Science-related funds for both military and civilian purposes also are included in other sec- tions of the state budget: some capital investment, prototype development, and a share of the costs of introducing new technology (both civilian and military) are believed included under FNE; the costs of military personnel engaged in defense- related R&D are probably included with all military personnel costs; and university budgets (VUZes) contain important sums for scientific activities (at least 150 million to 200 million rubles annually)." Allocations from the state science budget rose by 88 percent from 1965 to 1975, growing at the. average annual rate of 6.5 percent (see table 8). At the same time, reported all-source science spending more than doubled and grew at the annual rate of 9.7 percent.' As a result, the explicit science budget declined steadily as a share of total science funding, from 62 percent in 1965 to less than 50 percent since 1972. Several factors explain this development: ? The conversion of most scientific research institutes (Nils) from budgetary status to khoz- raschet status?although there are many khoz- raschet scientific research organizations that " For a comprehensive treatment of the expenditures and sources of financing Soviet science, see Louvan E. Nol'ting, Sources of Financing the Stages of the Research, Development and Innova- tion Cycle in the USSR, US Department of Commerce, Foreign Economic Reports, No. 3, September 1973. " S. M. Aleshin, "Nekotoriye voprosy planirovaniya i uchete zatrat na nauku," Finansy SSSR, No. 10, 1976, p. 43. " It is not known whether the total reported science expenditures include all the science-related funds that are included in the nonscience appropriations of the state budget. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP791300457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 8 USSR: Expenditures for Science 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Billion Current Rubles 1974 1975 1976 1977 Plan Total reported science expenditures 6.90 7.50 8.20 9.00 10.00 11.70 13.00 14.40 15.70 16.45 17.40 17.7 18.2 Science budget category' 4.27 4.61 5.05 5.52 5.88 6.54 7.02 7.30 7.64 8.04 8.03 NA NA Other budget categories and nonbudget financing 2.63 2.89 3.15 3.48 4.12 5.16 5.98 7.10 8.06 8.41 9.37 NA NA Percent Budgetary allocation for science as a share of total reported science expenditures 62 61 62 61 59 56 54 51 49 49 46 NA NA 'Including some capital investment. 2 The USSR publishes several different science series. Although the 1976 science budget "with capital investment- is not known, it is probably almost identical to the 1975 figure of 8.03 billion rubles. The 1976 science budget -without capital investment" was reported as 7.897 billion rubles, only 0.004 billion rubles more than in 1975. Calculated as a residual. are financed largely from budget appro- priations. ? Increased financing of science from such nonbudget sources as contract funding, charges to cost of production, operational expenditures, and other -own resources." ? Since 1969, several industrial ministries have adopted a unified fund for the development of science and technology. This single source of financing R&D is created from enterprise prof- its and has nearly completely replaced the state budget as a source of science financing for these ministries. Defense The only information released by the USSR on its annual defense expenditures is a one-line item in the published state budget. The size of this number, however, is clearly too small to cover the full range of observed Soviet military activities. In fact, actual defense outlays are estimated to be about three times larger than the budget item labeled -defense.- For example, CIA has esti- mated that Soviet 1975 defense expenditures (defined to accord with US budgetary accounts) 15 were 50 billion to 55 billion rubles when meas- ured in constant 1970 prices.35 The announced 1975 defense number is 17.4 billion rubles in current prices. Explicit budget expenditures for defense rose from 12.8 billion rubles in 1965 to 17.9 billion rubles in 1972 and thereafter declined gradually to a plan figure of 17.2 billion rubles in 1977 (see table 9). While total state budget expenditures continued to grow, the defense portion of the budget steadily shrank-from 12.6 percent in 1965 to 7.2 percent in the 1977 plan. It is known that all defense expenditures fund- ed by the Ministry of Defense (MOD) are planned on the basis of the MOD Smeta, or -estimate.- Soviet writers describe the activities covered by the Smeta as including military pay and subsistence, outlays for operations and main- tenance, military procurement, and military con- 5truction.36 However, there are major obstacles in trying to relate the MOD Smeta to the an- nounced defense budget: 35 CIA, SR 76-10121U, Estimated Soviet Defense Spending in Rubles, 1970-75, May 1976, p. 9. " See, for example, A. M. Aleksandrov, ed,. Gosudarstvennyi byudzhet SSSR, Moscow, 1965, pp. 382-383, and D. K. Allakhver- dyan, et al., Finansy SSSR, Moscow, 1962, p. 310. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 9 USSR: Explicit Defense Expenditures 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Billion Current Rubles 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1 Explicit budget alloca- tion for defense 12.78 13.40 14.50 16.70 17.70 17.85 17.85 17.90 Percent 17.85 17.65 17.43 17.4 17.23 Defense as a share of total state budget 12.58 12.69 12.58 12.99 12.78 11.55 10.87 10.33 9.70 8.94 8.13 7.68 7.22 Plan. ? Nowhere in the Soviet literature is there any quantification of the Smeta or any of its components. ? No Soviet source has ever unequivocally linked the Smeta to the announced defense appropriation.87 Even if the coverage of the Smeta and the announced defense budget were identical, total Soviet defense spending would still exceed the announced budget by the cost of the defense- related activities that are not included in the Smeta; for example, RDT&E, civil defense, for- eign military aid, military stockpiling, and space. It is suspected, but cannot be proved, that the announced defense budget is largely a current expenditures budget of the Soviet military estab- lishment. As such, it would probably include pay and allowances of military personnel, wages of civilian MOD employees, current repair of facili- ties, pensions, food and nonfood quartermasters supplies, utilities, and the like. Even if this is true, however, the decline in the defense budget in recent years?at a time when we believe Soviet operating and maintenance costs have increased considerably?suggests that the announced bud- get is manipulated for political purposes. To signal Soviet attitudes about detente, for example, some operating expenditures could have been shifted from the defense budget to other budget " William T. Lee discusses this and other aspects of the MOD Smeta in The Estimation of Soviet Defense Expenditures, 1955-75: An Unconventional Approach, New York: Praeger, 1977. pp. 320- 323. See also Robert E. Leggett and Sheldon T. Rabin, "A Note on the Meaning of the Soviet Defense Budget," Soviet Studies, forthcoming. 16 lines in the 1970s, resulting in a showing of apparently reduced defense spending. The uncertainty surrounding the true coverage of the announced defense budget has rendered it virtually useless as a barometer of either the level or the trends in total Soviet defense expenditures. As a result, Western analysts have had to devise various methodologies to estimate Soviet defense spending. CIA, for example, estimates Soviet defense spending by a building-block approach. This method consists of identifying the forces and activities that constitute the Soviet military effort and then estimating the annual cost of these components and summing these costs to yield estimates of total spending. Other aproaches used by Western observers rely heavily on reported Soviet economic statistics. Another approach to the defense expenditures issue is to construct a measure of budget funds that might be -available- for financing defense activities. Besides the announced defense budget, these funds would include the portion of the FNE residual that is unidentified by functional end use, a share of the science budget, and several smaller outlays. Given the uncertainties surround- ing the meaning of all Soviet budget data, howev- er, the results obtained using this methodology must be regarded as general orders of magnitude rather than point estimates. 38 Nonetheless, the concept of -available- funds can serve as a useful check on the reasonableness of Western estimates of Soviet military outlays. 88 Franklyn D. Holzman has examined the uncertainties in the definition and coverage of Soviet budgetary data in Financial Checks on Soviet Defense Expenditures, Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Company, 1975. Approveil For Release 2006/01130 : CIA-ROF79B004'TA0007001400IFT-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A tentative calculation of budget funds -avail- able- for defense in 1970 is presented in table 10. This exercise indicates that between 44 billion and 50 billion rubles, or between 28 and 32 percent of the entire state budget might have been spent for defense. This suggests that there is Table 10 USSR: Budget Funds "Available" for Defense, 1970 Billion Current Rubles Total FNE residual unidentified, by end use Science budget Budgetary expenditures residual (33 per- cent) 1.5' Announced defense budget 17.9 43.8-49.8 18.0-24.0 6.4 'Defense outlays financed from the budgets for education, health, and administration are not estimated. Also not estimated and not included in this estimate of "available" funds are any nonbudget funds that might be used for defense-related activities, such as military RDT&E financed from enterprise "own" resources. 2 Representing a ranged FNE residual, as calculated in table 6. FNE funds probably finance most military procurement and other investment-type defense costs such as development of weapons prototypes. This figure is the explicit science budget for 1970. No one outside of a small group of Soviet officials knows how much of this appropriation is military related. For a discussion of several Western estimates of Soviet military science costs see The International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, /973-74, London: 1973, pp. 8-9. ' The KGB and possibly other defense and security-related outlays are financed from this residual. Here, one-third of this residual (see tables 1 and A-1) is assumed to be military related. room in the state budget as published to accom- modate most official and nonofficial Western estimates of Soviet defense expenditures. For example, total -available- budget funds for 1970 could cover the 45 billion to 50 billion rubles estimated by CIA (using a broad definition of defense such as the Soviets might use). 39 The coincidence between the above calculation of -available- budget funds and Western esti- '? CIA, May 1976, p. 9; a semiofficial French source has recently estimated Soviet 1970 defense spending at about 34 billion rubles. See X.X.X., "Combien de roubles pour la defense?" Defense Nationale, November 1976, p. 54. Other estimates place the Soviet defense bill at higher levels. For example, William T. Lee suggests that 1970 Soviet defense outlays were on the order of 42 billion to 49 billion rubles. See his The Estimation of Soviet Defense Expendi- tures, 1955-75: An Unconventional Approach, p. 141. It is interest- ing to note that the Chinese Communists?never ones to downgrade the nature of the Soviet threat?have estimated the 1970 USSR defense bill at 49 billion to 51 billion rubles. See Peking Review, 7 November 1975, p. 20, and 28 November 1975, p. 9. 17 mates does not mean necessarily that defense outlays were made in the amount or in the manner outlined in the table: ? It is doubtful that all of the "available" fundscould have been allocated to defense activities. This methodology is in many ways an expression of Western ignorance of the possible nondefense uses for these budget re- sources. Alternatively, some defense spending could easily be concealed in the ostensibly civilian end uses under the appropriations to FNE, such as for capital investment and oper- ational outlays. 4? ? A presumably small but unknown amount of defense-related expenditures probably is fund- ed on the basis of nonbudgetary funds, such as the resources of the khozraschet industrial, construction, and trade enterprises of MOD. " Administration and Loan Service Expenditures for administration and loan serv- ice typically account for about 1 percent of total budget outlays. The announced budget appropri- ation for administration covers the costs of gov- ernment operations?wages, social security con- tributions, office expenses, and other administrative costs?for the judicial system, cen- tral and local legislative bodies and ministries (including, possibly, the central office costs of the MOD), the planning and financial apparatus, and embassies and consulates abroad. The budget allocation for administration has increased gradually from 1.3 billion rubles in 1965 to 2.1 billion rubles in 1976. However, the announced budget appropriation is believed to cover only a portion of the total expenses in- curred by the government -apparat--perhaps as low as one-sixth, depending on the definition used. 42 A share of the administrative expenses for " For example, capital expenditures under FNE which have both military and civilian applications, such as airfields, naval bases, and roads, could be concealed in this manner. This practice is implied by M. L. Tamarchenko, Sovetskiye finansy v period velikoy otechest- vennoy voini, Moscow, 1967, pp. 98-100. " For an excellent discussion of the numerous possible schemes for concealing defense expenditures see Holzman, pp. 13-46. "In one of the few Western treatments of this subject, Gertrude Schroeder concluded that official Soviet statistics grossly understate both the cost of government administration and the level of employment in the "apparat." See "A Critique of Official Statistics on Public Administration in the USSR," ACES Bulletin, spring 1976, pp. 23-44. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 the economic ministries may be financed par- tially under the appropriate branch in the budget FNE. Other outlays are financed from nonbudg- etary sources, for example, from the cost of production in the industrial sector and from the cost of distribution in the trade sector. Loan service to the population consists of pay- ments of interest and principal on the public debt. This amount has generally been a very minor budget entry since 1957, when the state stopped mandatory subscription bond sales and announced a 20-year moratorium on repayments. The government continued a 3-percent lottery loan, however, in which income from the loan is paid out in the form of prize winnings equivalent to 3-percent interest. Loan service on this latter account has fluctuated between an estimated 80 million and 200 million rubles annually.43 In 1973 the Council of Ministers ordered the redemption of the 25.8 billion rubles in outstand- ing subscription loans, beginning in December 1974. This program should realize Brezhnev's 1971 pledge to redeem the bonds several years ahead of schedule. The debt was retired by 1.0 billion rubles annually in 1974-75. The state plans on redeeming the bonds by 1.2 billion rubles in each year of 1976-80; 1.5 billion, 1981-85; 2.0 billio 1, 1986-89; and a final payment of 2.3 billion in 1990. Reserve Funds of the Councils of Ministers The plan budgets include a contribution to the finanCial reserves of the union and republican Councils of Ministers. Although this allocation is not announced, the calculated residual in the planned budget is believed to include the reserve funds as well as several items that constitute the budg6tary expenditures residual (see following section). In the actual budget, however, the re- serve funds are assumed to be classified under the categories for which they were expended during the year. If so, their size can be approximated by comparing the plan and actual residuals: using this method, the reserve funds appear to have averaged 2.3 billion rubles annually during 1965-76. " Sitee 1971, budget reporting has carried no item on loan service 18 While the uses of this financial reserve are not generally announced, they are believed to include: ? Emergency and disaster relief. From time to time the government publicizes outlays from the reserve funds, such as the financing of disaster relief in flood stricken republics. The amounts involved, however, probably comprise a very small portion of the total reserve funds expended in any given year. ? Expenses occasioned by unforeseen develop- ments in the international arena. All-union reserve funds were possibly used in 1968 to help finance the resupply of the Arab armies after the 1967 Six-Day War as well as the August invasion of Czechoslovakia. These out- lays would explain in part why reserve funds jumped from 1.25 billion rubles in 1967 to 4. record 6.17 billion rubles in 1968. ? Supplemental financing for the national economy, social-cultural measures, and other measures not envisioned at the beginning of the year. The Budgetary Expenditures Residual The budgetary expenditures residual is the amount remaining after outlays for the primary categories have been accounted for in the actual budget. The residual averaged 5.3 billion rubles between 1965 and 1976, or 3 percent of total budget expenditures. Little information is available on this calcu- lated residual. It is believed to finance the Corn- mitte for State Security (KGB) and other internal security operations.44 It also includes allocations to the state banks for the expansion of long-term credit facilities and miscellaneous rebates and small payments to enterprises and organizations. The residual may also contain funds for foreign aid and for repayment to the savings banks of any sums used as budget income during the year. " The financing of the state security services is rarely addressed in recent Soviet literature, although it is known that these activities are funded through a separate line item in the state budget. (S. M. Gerrud and A. F. Yakovleva, Albom naglyadnykh posobiy po kursu gosudarstvennyi byudzhet,- Moscow, 1963, p. 17.) pprove or Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 11 USSR: Revenues of the State Budget ' Selected Years Billion Current Rubles 1965 1970 1975 1976 Actual Actual Actual Actual 1977 Plan Total 102.32 156.70 218.77 232.2 238.94 Social sector .......... 93.89 142.86 199.09 211.3 216.7 Turnover tax receipts 38.66 49.38 66.61 70.7 73.3 Payments from profits 30.87 54.16 69.71 70.6 78.4 Income tax on organiza- tions 1.54 1.23 1.46 1.5 1.5 Social insurance receipts 5.56 8.20 11.06 12.2 13.0 Residual 17.26 29.89 50.25 56.3 50.5 Private sector ........ 8.43 13.84 19.68 20.9 22.2 State taxes on the population 7.70 12.74 18.36 19.6 20.9 State loans 0.18 0.47 0.56 0.6 Local taxes and 1.3 lotteries 0.55 0.63 0.76 0.7 Budget surplus . 0.70 2.10 4.25 5.5 0.21 ' For complete data for 1965-77, actual and plan, see table A-5 in the appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Revenues Budget revenues between 1965 and 1976 grew at an average annual rate of 7.7 percent, slightly faster than the growth of expenditures (see table 11). The USSR relies primarily on indirect tax- USSR: Major Sources of Budget Revenue Percent 1965 Private Sector Revenues 8 574915 12-77 ation for its budget income. Revenues are derived from both the social sector (economic organiza- tions and enterprises) and the private sector (individuals). The former is by far the more important source, consistently providing more than nine-tenths of total revenues (see figure 2). Income from the social sector consists of turn- over tax receipts, payments from profits of enter- prises, income taxes on collective farms and economic organizations, social insurance receipts, and a large residual of numerous itemized and nonitemized entries. Turnover tax receipts and payments from profits are the two major sources of revenue and generally account for roughly two-thirds of total budget receipts. Income from the private sector increased slightly as a portion of total revenue, from 8 percent in 1965 to 9 percent in 1976. The largest component, state taxes on the population, traced a comparable rise, from 7.5 percent in 1965 to 8.4 percent of total revenues in 1976. This occurred because of rising wage levels which made a sizable share of the workers' wages subject to the maximum income tax rate of 13 percent. Turnover Tax Receipts The turnover tax is essentially an excise tax levied on consumer goods-about three-fourths of the total amount appears to be collected from 1970 19 Figure 2 1977 (Plan) Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 the light and food industries." The tax varies on each item and is included in the retail price. Some producer goods are also taxed, such as electric power, oil, and gas. Consumer durables, produced in machinery plants, carry high turn- over taxes. Military hardware items are treated like most producer goods and are not subject to the turnover tax, as are goods allocated to state reserves and exports. Since its introduction in 1930, the turnover tax has served a number of purposes: ? As a principal source of state revenue, with varying amounts also allocated annually to the individual union-republics. (The latter distri- bution serves as a budget-balancing mechanism throughout the budget system.) ? As a tool to maintain a desired balance between overall public purchasing power and the volume of available consumer goods and services. ? As a lever for regulating enterprise profits. Turnover tax receipts have not risen as rapidly as have total budget revenues in the past dec- ade." From 1965 to 1976 turnover tax receipts increased by only 83 percent, rising at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent. The net result was a smaller role for this tax in the total revenue picture; its 38-percent share of revenue in 1965 dwindled to 30 percent in 1976. This slowdown in the growth of turnover tax receipts has resulted from several developments: ? The increased procurement prices on agri- cultural raw materials and higher wholesale " V. N. Semenov, Rol' finansov I kredita v razvaii selskogo Ichozyaistvo, Moscow, 1973, P. 267. Alcoholic beverages provide the largest single share of tax proceeds. In 1973, for example, about one- third of turnover tax, or 20 billion rubles, came from products of the alcoholic beverage, beer, and wine industries. (Calculated on the basis of data in Yevdokimov, p. 44.) " Budget receipts of turnover taxes are published net of "pay- ments charged against turnover tax," such as rebates to trade enterprises and clothing producers for certain types of expenditures and for the transport of goods to outlying regions. The turnover tax number published in annual statistical handbooks is about 92 percent of the gross turnover tax payments. This question of net versus gross turnover tax is discussed by V. I. Vesbland in lzvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR: seriya ekonomtcheskaya, No. 5, 1975, pp. 63- 74. 20 prices on many other items?the result of price reforms?were not passed on to the retail level. This practice squeezed turnover tax receipts. ? Many turnover tax rates since 1965 were reduced (especially on food products) or elimi- nated (such as the rural surcharge, which was a higher rate on consumer goods sold in rural areas). The unusually slow growth of turnover taxes in 1972, for example?just over 1 billion rubles?was due in large part to the sharp reductions in the turnover tax on grain prod- ucts.47 The decline in tax revenues as a percent- age of retail sales, from 37 percent in 1965 to 32 percent in 1976, may be a general reflection of these numerous reductions in the overall tax rate. Payments From Profits Payments from enterprise profits into the state budget rose from 30.9 billion rubles in 1965 to 70.6 billion rubles in 1976, at an average annual rate of 7.8 percent." Most payments from profits are made by industrial enterprises (about 60 percent in recent years); one of the smallest shares-4 to 5 percent?comes from agriculture and procurement. As a result of the 1965 economic reforms and the 1967 industrial wholesale price increases, the share of budget revenue from profits payments rose from 30.2 percent in 1965 to 36.7 percent in 1968. This share has since declined to under one- third primarily because the total profits of the industrial enterprises, which rose by over 33 billion rubles during 1965-70, increased by only 9 billion rubles during 1970-76. Among the reasons for the recent slowed growth of profits are the major price reductions on machinery products (in 1971 and 1973) and the rising costs in some economic sectors (such as the extractive indus- tries) without compensating price increases for their output. The method of distributing profits has changed since 1965 as a result of the implementation of " V. N. Semenov, Rol' finansov. . p. 251. " Published statistics on payments from profits are on a year-paid basis and include taxes from the current year's earnings as well as any taxes recalculated from the previous year's earnings. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140 01-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 the economic reforms." Previously, enterprises made a single "deduction from profits- into the state budget. Now, most enterprises make "pay- ments from profits- that are composed of several parts: ? Capital charge. One of the most important innovations of the reforms, this charge is usu- ally 6 percent of fixed and working capital. By charging enterprises for budget-financed capi- tal, it was hoped that enterprises would have an incentive to more efficiently use their exist- ing capital. ? Fixed payments, paid by enterprises for especially favorable natural, transportation, or other conditions. Enterprises in the extractive industries provide more than 60 percent of the fixed charges. ? "Free- profit remainder, formed after pay- ment of the above charges plus interest on repayment of bank loans and stipulated deduc- tions into the various enterprise funds (for material incentives, social-cultural measures, and housing and for the development of pro- duction) and several other allowable deduc- tions. The free profit remainder is the largest of the profit payments, accounting for 47 percent of all payments from profits in 1976. ? "Deductions from profits- and other pay- ments, including deductions from enterprises not yet transferred to the new system of profit accounting as well as several other payments from enterprise profits, such as deductions for geological work and the removal of excess amortization funds and working capital. (In 1975, these latter payments were planned at 3.2 billion rubles, or about 5 percent of total planned payments from profits.) 50 Despite the rapid growth in payments from profits, these funds form a declining share of total enterprise profits, falling from 69 percent in 1965 *9 An excellent discussion of the reform's impact on the financial relationships of the producing enterprises with the state budget and the banking system is found in Gertrude E. Schroeder, "Post- Khrushchev Reforms and Soviet Public Financial Goals," in Zbigniew M. Fallenbuchl (ed.), Economic Development in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Volume 2, New York: Praeger, 1976, pp. 348-367. " V. F. Garbuzov, "Byudzhet zavershayushchego goda pyati- letki," Finansy SSSR, No. 1, 1975, p. 8. 21 to 57 percent in 1976. This reflects the leader- ship's attempts to increase the role of enterprise- retained profits in the financing of capital invest- ment, working capital, and capital repair and in supplementing incentive funds. For example, en- terprise profits financed only 12 percent of capi- tal investment in industry, transportation, and communications in 1965, 24 percent in 1969, and aboui 22 percent subsequently." Other Social Sector Revenues Other payments from the social sector into the budget include social insurance receipts, income taxes on organizations (for example, collective farms and nonstate economic organizations such as consumers' cooperatives), and a number of unrelated revenues that form a large and rapidly growing revenue residual. Social insurance receipts provide about 5 per- cent of total budget revenues. These payments are made by state enterprises as a fixed percent- age of their wage bill, ranging from 9 percent in the coal industry to 4.4 percent in agriculture." The funds are used for pensions, disability bene- fits, sanatoriums, and child care facilities (see table 12). While the Social Insurance Budget is an independent unit administered by the trade unions, its income and expenditures are consoli- dated into the state budget. Receipts are not sufficient to cover outlays, and so general budget funds are made available. In recent years, re- ceipts have supplied a diminishing portion of the program's expenditures, falling from 53 percent in 1965 to 44 percent in 1976. Income taxes on the khozraschet enterprises of public organizations and on collective farms and cooperatives have fluctuated between 1 billion and 1.5 billion rubles since 1965 and provide less than 1 percent of total budget revenue. The tax rates for collective farms depend on net income levels, while consumer cooperatives typically pay an income tax at the rate of 35 percent of net income and other organizations pay a rate of 25 P. N. Zhevtyak and V. I. Kolesnikov, Pribil v sotsialisticheskom raschirennom vosproizvodstve, Moscow, 1976, p. 153. " 0. G. Shapovalenko, Kontra za raskhodami na upravleniye, Moscow, 1976, pp. 8-9. This source also reveals that the social insurance payment by the aviation and defense industries is 7.3 percent of the wage bill. Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table 12 USSR: State Social Insurance Receipts and Expenditures 1965 1966 1967 1968 Expenditures 10.54 11.47 12.46 13.85 Benefits 2.59 2.68 2.95 3.54 Temporary disability 1.96 2.02 2.28 2.81 Pregnancy and child- birth 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.72 Pensions 7.41 8.17 8.84 9.58 Sanitarium and health resort care 0.36 0.41 0.44 0.49 Child care 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 Other 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.07 Receipts 5.56 6.00 6.39 7.12 Receipts as a share of total expenditures 53 52 51 51 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Billion Current Rubles 15.34 4.13 3.34 3.73 3.69 3.86 4.26 4.44 5.08 5.56 17.11 18.35 19.65 21.06 22.62 26.19 27.99 4.61 4.64 4.85 5.32 5.67 7.21 7.82 0.79 0.87 10.43 11.65 0.52 0.55 0.18 0.19 0.08 0.10 7.78 8.20 0.94 0.99 1.04 1.19 1.26 1.34 12.80 13.84 14.73 15.82 17.76 18.90 0.62 0.20 0.10 8.71 Percent 0.64 0.21 0.10 9.14 0.69 0.22 0.10 9.75 0.75 0.25 0.13 10.41 0.79 0.26 0.16 11.06 0.86 0.27 0.16 12.20 51 48 47 47 46 46 42 44 ' Pioneer camps, for example. percent. Numerous organizations are exempt from paying the income tax-for example, eco- nomic enterprises of Party and Komsomol organizations." The social sector revenue residual has grown at a higher rate since 1965 than any other budget revenue category. In 1966-76 the residual rose at an average annual rate of 11.3 percent. Its share of total budget revenues increased from 17 per- cent in 1965 to about 24 percent in 1976. Al- though the size of several minor revenues in this grouping is reported annually, the largest por- tion-probably more than 90 percent-is not. The revenues that can be estimated or for which data are usually available include the following: fees from forestry operations and radio-television subscriptions (each about 500 million to 600 million rubles annually), 54 funds created by the annual mandatory reduction in administrative-management expenditures by en- terprises (averaging 1 billion rubles annually " Yevdokimov, p. 90. " The radio industry pays the subscription fee directly to the budget. Until 1962, owners of radios and television sets paid their subscription fees when they made their utilities payments at the savings banks. 22 since 1965), and a percentage deduction from a group of insurance payments." Among the revenues that are not announced annually are customs duties, receipts from budg- etary institutions, accounting profits from foreign trade (and possibly gold sales in Western markets) arising from the differences between domestic and foreign prices, various types of state fees (for example, for automobile inspections), the return to the budget of enterprise-received but unex- pended funds from the previous year, income from the sale or rental of state property and confiscated property, savings in the reduction in the cost of capital repair, and numerous very small revenues. No single known revenue or group of revenues can explain the residual in any given year; nor can the known revenues explain the tremendous jump in the residual from 17 billion rubles in 1965 to 56 billion rubles in 1976. In recent years, " In the Belorussian SSR in 1975, for example, local budgets received 50 percent of the payments by cooperatives for voluntary property insurance and by the population for certain types of obligatory and voluntary insurance. M. I. Khodorovich, "Dokhodi mestnikh byudzhetov ot strakhovikh platezhei," Finansy SSSR, No. 8, 1975, p. 62. pprove or Release 2006/ 1/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 therefore, strong suspicion has developed among Western observers that a sizable share of this residual consists of sensitive financial flows that the state, for various reasons, does not wish to disclose. Several tentative but untested hypoth- eses can be put forth which might point the way toward an explanation of this revenue residual: ? Repayment for foreign aid extended by the USSR. It is known that the state budget in- cludes various expenditures for "financial aid to Socialist states as well as developing coun- tries.- 56 To the extent that this aid is repaid, it would probably be treated as budgetary rev- enue. Receipts from the rapidly growing sales abroad of weapons might also be handled in this manner. The sensitive nature of these financial flows would be the likely reason for including them in an unidentified revenue residual. ? Proceeds from the expansion of the money supply. Gosbank issues bank notes (currency) on the basis of 25-percent backing by precious metals (including gold) and foreign hard cur- rency, and 75-percent by other assets of the bank. 57 It is possible that a certain portion of the new currency is treated as an unreported income to the state budget, in either the form of loans or credits to the budget's accounts. Such a practice would not be unprecedented in Soviet annals as the issuance of new currency was used to cover budgetary deficits in the early 1920s as well as during the first three years of World War II. In discussing this latter episode, one Soviet economist alluded to the mechanism for such a practice when he noted that "the issuing of additional currency . . . was effected partly in the form of covering state budget expenditures from its account in Gosbank. Formally it was effected through credit, although it was essentially of a budget character. "58 ? Budget "borrowing- from the population's savings deposits. Until 1963 the annual increase in the population's savings deposits was placed " I. D. Zlobin, ed., Finansy SSSR, Moscow, 1971, P. 331. " N. A. Tsagolov, Kurs politicheskoy ekonomii, Volume II, Moscow, 1970, pp. 287-288. " V. Batyrev, Denezhnoye obrashchenoye v SSSR, Moscow, 1959, p. 209. 23 by the savings banks in a loan to the budget. This practice was officially stopped on 1 Janu- ary 1963, when the savings banks were trans- ferred from the Ministry of Finance to Gos- bank. After that date, the increase in savings deposits was to be used to expand Gosbank's lending capabilities. Some of this increase, however, may still be treated as a revenue, perhaps in the form of unreported loans to the budget's account. Soviet sources since 1963 provide little specific information in this area, although they frequently imply that the popu- lation's savings deposits still constitute "budget available" funds.59 Additional research on this contention is clearly required, especially since, along with the preced- ing hypothesis on the expansion of the money supply, it suggests the possibility of some form of deficit budget financing.6? Revenues from the Private Sector Annual revenues from the private sector more than doubled in size during 1966-76, growing at the average annual rate of 8.6 percent. In recent years the state budget has increased slightly its dependence on private sector revenues, from 8.2 percent of total revenues in 1965 to 9 percent in 1976?this despite repeated promises from the leadership to reduce or abolish the many taxes on the private sector." State taxes on the population account for more than 90 percent of private sector revenues. These taxes grew from 7.7 billion rubles in 1965 to 19.6 billion rubles in 1976. In 1975, for example, these taxes included the following: " For example, Tsagolov, pp. 522-523, and D. K. Allakhverdyan, Soviet Financial System, 1966, pp. 274, 278. " Some useful information on the revenue residual might be found through research on the financial systems of the East European Communist states, whose budgets are patterned on the Soviet model. In both Hungary and Poland, for example, foreign loans and net savings bank deposits are mentioned as budgetary revenues. See the Columbia University Research Project on National Income in East Central Europe, published in 1968: Financial and Fiscal Systems of Hungary, 1968, New York, Volume II, pp. 216- 217, and Financial and Fiscal Systems of Poland, 1968, New York, Volume III, p. 317. ?I For example, in September 1967 the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the Council of Ministers jointly resolved -to continue the reduction and abolition of taxes on the wages of workers and employees."(/zoestiya, 27 September 1967, p. 1). Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Type of Tax Billion Rubles Total 18.36 Personal income tax 16.99 Agricultural tax 0.29 Bachelor and small-family tax 1.08 The personal income tax is paid at a progres- sive rate ranging from 1 to 13 percent, and tax payments are differentiated according to sources of income and size of family. The growth of these taxes in recent years is attributable to the general rise in wages as well as the greater number of lower paid workers receiving wages above the tax-free minimum wage (70 rubles per month in 1977). More than one-half of the personal income taxes enter the revenues of the republican budgets. The agricultural tax and the bachelor and small-family tax are included entirely in the revenues of the republican budgets. The agricul- tural tax dates back to the New Economic Policy (NEP) of the 1920s. It is a progressive tax levied on persons having an income from farming on private plots. The bachelor and small-family tax was introduced in 1941 as a wartime revenue measure. Both the payers of the tax and the various exemptions have been revised frequently since that time. Other private sector revenues, which totaled 1.32 billion rubles in 1975, include the net pro- ceeds from a 3-percent lottery loan (281 million rubles in 1975), a republic-sponsored cash-or- commodity lottery that brings in about 250 mil- lion rubles annually, and miscellaneous local taxes and fees. These sources of income have increased very slowly under Brezhnev and typically consti- tute less than 1 percent of total budget revenue. The Budget Surplus Since World War II, the USSR consistently has run an annual surplus of budget revenues over expenditures. The planned surpluses in 1965-77 have fluctuated between 150 million and 310 million rubles. The actual surpluses have had an even wider range-from 700 million rubles in 1965 to 5.5 billion rubles in 1976 (see table 13). The record budget surpluses of recent years may have resulted partly from a greater utilization of nonbudgetary resources, as seen in the substantial short-term bank credits drawn by industrial en- terprises, state farms, and trade organizations. Futhermore, improvements in the state's finan- cial oversight and auditing operations have result- ed in sizable above-plan revenues. Very little is known about the end use of the budget surplus. A portion of the surplus for each year is possibly carried over as budget revenue into the new year.62 However, the remainder, as well as momentarily free budget resources real- ized during the budget year, is used for expand- ing the credit resources of the state banks. The exact relationship between the budget and the " As with other areas of the Soviet economy, more reliable information on the budget surplus is available for the period before World War II than for more recent years. In the earlier period, the annual budget surplus was sometimes transferred entirely to the budget revenues for the following year; on other occasions, part of the surplus was sent to the state banks for the expansion of credit resources and a part was used for formation of a "state reserve." See Arthur Z. Arnold, Banks, Credit, and Money in Soviet Russia, New York: Columbia University Press, 1937, pp. 242, 384. Table 13 USSR: State Budget Billion Current Rubles 1965 Plan Actual Revenues ........99.70 102.32 Expenditures .... 99.54 101.62 Surplus ...... 0.16 0.70 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual 105.54 106.30 110.25 117.16 123.91 130.84 134.10 140.03 144.93 156.70 160.97 165.96 105.39 105.58 110.02 115.24 123.60 128.56 133.90 138.53 144.66 154.60 160.77 164.15 0.15 0.72 0.23 1.92 0.31 2.28 0.20 1.50 0.27 2.10 0.20 1.81 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Plan Actual Revenues ........ 173.81 175.11 Expenditures .... 173.61 173.22 Surplus 0.20 1.89 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan 181.84 187.78 194.30 201.32 208.60 218.77 223.7 232.2 238.94 181.61 183.98 194.09 197.38 208.41 214.52 223.5 226.7 238.73 0.23 3.80 0.21 3.94 0.19 4.25 0.2 5.5 0.21 30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 annual extension of bank credit is difficult to ascertain, however, because the bank's balance sheets are not available and because credit re- sources are also formed from the free resources of enterprises, personal savings deposits, and specific budget allocations for the expansion of long-term credit (included in the budgetary expenditures residual). The Budgets of the Union-Republics of the USSR Since 1965 the budgets of the republics have played a diminishing role in the distribution of national financial resources (see table 14). These budgets comprised 58 percent of state budget expenditures in 1965, 51 percent in 1966, and between 48 and 49 percent after 1966. This downward trend is due primarily to a decline in the republican budgets' role in FNE. Several factors explain this development: ? In 1965 the Sovnarkhoz (regional economic council) system of organizing the economy along regional lines was replaced by the more traditional arrangement of branch ministries.63 This resulted in the transfer of key industries (geographically concentrated mostly in the RSFSR) from republican to all-union jurisdic- tion. Whereas the republics distributed 66 per- cent of state budget funds for FNE in 1965, " The Sovnarkhozy had been introduced by Khrushchev in 1957 as a replacement for the ministerial system. They were an attempt to correct some of the ministries' alleged shortcomings, such as -empire building- and lack of attention to regional economic coordination, their portion fell to 52 percent in 1966 and has fluctuated between 46 and 49 percent since that time. ? Under the current leadership, those areas of the economy typically financed at the all-union level have registered the greatest rise among budgetary expenditures. For example, the rap- idly growing outlays on defense, which accord- ing to many Western experts consume almost one-third of all budget funds, are financed largely if not entirely from the all-union budget. The republican budgets have continued, how- ever, to finance the majority of the state budget's expenditures for social programs. For example, about 85 percent of budget outlays for education, 90 to 95 percent of the allocation for health, and more than 90 percent of social security spending flow through the republican budgets. Revenues of the republic budgets consist of payments from the profits of enterprises under republic jurisdiction, agricultural tax, income tax on collective farms, forestry revenues, bachelor tax and local taxes and fees, 50 percent of the revenue from state lotteries, and slightly more than one-half of personal income taxes In addi- tion, each republic receives a share of the turn- over tax receipts in an amount established annu- ally by the budget law. In the 1977 plan, for example, the percentages of turnover tax retained by the republics ranged from 41 percent in Latvia to 100 percent in Kazakhstan. Table 14 USSR: Major Budget Expenditures of the Union-Republics Total (Billion Current Rubles) Percent of State Budget Financing the National Economy (FNE) (Billion Current Rubles) Percent of State Budget for FNE Social-Cultural Measures (SCM) (Billion Current Rubles) Percent of State Budget for SCM 1965 58.45 58 29.74 66 26.73 70 1966 53.75 51 23.62 52 27.88 68 1967 55.88 48 24.92 47 29.22 68 1968 61.63 48 28.03 48 31.72 66 1969 66.50 48 30.70 49 33.76 65 1970 73.98 48 35.08 47 36.79 66 1971 79.25 48 38.23 48 38.86 65 1972 83.60 48 40.29 47 41.10 65 1973 87.88 48 41.83 46 45.53 68 1974 95.69 48 46.88 47 46.04 65 1975 104.80 49 52.53 47 49.46 64 1976 106.90 47 NA NA NA NA 25 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 APPENDIX Statistical Tables Table USSR Expenditures 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Total 99.54 101.62 105.39 105.58 110.02 115.24 123.60 128.56 133.90 138.53 Financing the national econ- omy 92.36 44.92 43.85 45.18 46.92 52.76 50.19 58.73 58.32 62.38 Industry and construction 20.6 20.99 22.4 21.06 21.87 23.53 23.9 24.15 22.2 24.68 Agriculture and procure- ment 7.0 6.77 6.5 6.30 6.35 6.96 9.0 9.27 9.2 10.85 Trade 2.0 2.27 2.7 2.84 3.17 4.92 4.0 6.09 6.5 6.43 Transportation and commu- nications 2.9 2.83 2.7 2.61 2.66 2.62 2.3 2.65 2.6 2.89 Municipal economy and housing Residual 3.8 6.1 4.23 7.82 4.2 5.3 4.53 7.84 4.08 8.78 5.05 } 9.68 11.0 j' 5.25 U1.32 4.9 12.9 5.89 1 11.64 J Social-cultural measures 37.45 38.16 40.38 40.76 42.92 43.48 45.81 48.31 51.12 51.86 Education, science, and cul- ture 17.2 17.51 18.71 18.73 19.67 20.09 21.0 21.85 23.2 23.31 Health and physical culture 6.5 6.67 7.06 7.10 7.40 7.45 7.7 8.14 8.4 8.55 Social welfare measures 13.8 13.98 14.61 14.93 15.85 15.94 17.1 18.32 19.5 20.00 Defenses 12.79 12.78 13.43 13.40 14.50 14.50 16.70 16.70 17.70 17.70 Administration ' 1.15 1.28 1.32 1.41 1.44 1.51 1.53 1.62 1.60 1.72 Loan service 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.2 0.20 Budgetary expenditures resid- ual and reserve funds of the Councils of Ministers 5.69 4.38 6.31 4.73 4.04 2.79 9.17 3.00 4.96 4.67 Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals 'Estimated. Probably excluding outlays for most of military R&D, space, i other defense related items. ' Including financing for all local and central government departments, and the courts and judicial organs. The budget plan includes Reserve Funds of the Councils of budget categories in the actual budget; that is, the plan measure measure includes only the expenditures residual. 26 shown. nternal security forces, procurement of major weapons systems, and possibly agencies, such as planning and financial bodies, ministries, government Ministers. Presumably, these are normally reclassified under the functional includes both the Reserve Funds and the expenditures residual. The actual Approved For Release 2006/11/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A-1 of the State Budget ' Billion Current Rubles 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan 144.66 154.60 160.77 164.15 173.61 173.22 181.61 183.98 194.09 197.38 208.41 214.52 223.5 226.7 238.73 63.50 74.55 77.00 80.44 82.63 84.93 86.53 91.33 95.12 99.68 102.63 110.70 114.5 118.5 123.39 23.9 30.53 29.6 32.53 32.0 34.05 33.9 36.45 36.7 40.59 42.3 47.01 48.0 NA 49.1 9.5 12.37 10.9 12.91 12.1 13.38 15.0 15.45 15.1 17.45 17.6 19.08 18.3 NA 19.4 6.1 6.26 6.0 6.39 6.3 6.55 6.5 6.80 6.80B 3.71 4.0 4.43 4.4 2 NA 4.4 2.8 3.11 3.0 3.11 3.2 3.49 3.2 3.59 3.8 4.14 4.5 9.96 4.9 NA 5.3 21.2 6.46 6.5 2 7.00 5.6 7.33 6.0 7.42 6.2 8.18 7.2 8.80 8.2 NA 9.2 t 15.82 21.0 18.50 23.4 20.13 21.9 21.62 26.5 25.61 27.03 26.42 30.7 NA 36.0 54.80 55.94 58.50 59.44 62.94 63.49 67.51 67.34 70.28 71.30 76.82 77.04 80.5 80.7 83.85 24.5 24.77 25.8 26.30 27.4 27.95 29.9 29.81 31.2 31.57 33.3 32.79 34.1 33.8 34.8 9.2 9.28 9.3 9.62 9.7 10.03 10.2 10.50 10.7 10.97 11.2 11.47 11.5 11.8 12.0 21.1 21.89 23.3 23.52 25.8 25.51 27.9 27.03 28.4 28.76 32.3 32.78 34.9 35.1 37.1 17.85 17.85 17.90 17.85 17.90 17.90 17.90 17.85 17.65 17.65 17.43 17.43 17.43 17.4 17.23 1.70 1.66 1.77 1.78 1.8 1.8 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.92 1.99 2.01 2.0 2.1 2.03 0.1 0.10 0.1 0.10 0.1 0.08 0.1 0.10 1.1 1.10 1.1 1.10 1.3 1.3 1.30 6.71 4.50 5.50 4.54 8.29 5.02 7.75 5.51 8.08 5.73 8.49 6.24 8.0 6.7 10.93 27 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table USSR: Planned Expenditures for Financing 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Total 75.8 100 81.8 100 86.5 100 96.3 100 116.5 100 From the budget 42,4 56 43.8 54 46.9 54 50.2 52 58.3 50 From other sources 33.4 44 38.0 46 39.6 46 46.1 48 58.2 50 Industry and construction 40.1 100 42.8 100 45.7 100 51.8 100 59.8 100 From the budget 20.6 51 22.4 52 21.9 48 23.9 46 22.2 37 From other sources ...... 19.5 49 20.4 48 23.8 52 27.9 54 37.6 63 Agriculture and procure- ment ' 12.4 100 13.2 100 13.5 100 16.4 100 17.2 100 From the budget 7.0 56 6.5 49 6.4 47 9.0 55 9.2 53 From other sources 5.4 44 6.7 51 7.1 53 7.4 45 8.0 47 Trade 2.9 100 3.7 100 4.2 100 5.3 100 7.9 100 From the budget 2.0 69 2.7 73 3.2 76 4.0 75 6.5 82 From other sources 0.9 31 1.0 27 1.0 24 1.3 25 1.4 18 Transportation and communications 8.3 100 8.4 100 8.8 100 9.2 100 11.1 100 From the budget 2.9 35 2.7 32 2.7 31 2.3 25 2.6 23 From other sources ...... 5.4 65 5.7 68 6.1 69 6.9 75 8.5 77 Municipal economy and housing 4.3 100 4.6 100 4.6 100 NA NA 5.6 100 From the budget 3.8 88 4.2 91 4.1 89 NA NA 4.9 88 From other sources 0.5 12 0.4 9 0.4 11 NA NA 0.7 12 Residual 7.8 100 9.1 100 9.7 100 NA NA 14.9 100 From the budget 6.1 78 5.3 58 8.8 91 11.0 NA 12,9 87 From other sources 1.7 22 3.8 42 0.9 9 NA NA 2.0 13 'Excluding collective farms. Estimated. 28 Ap'pro\ie7d For Release 2005/01130 : CIA-RDF19B00457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A-2 the National Economy (All-Source Financing) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent Billion Current Rubles Percent 129.0 100 154.9 100 169.8 100 180.0 100 198.4 100 210.8 100 227.5 100 251.0 100 63.5 49 77.0 50 82.6 49 86.5 48 95.1 48 102.6 49 114.5 50 123.4 49 65.5 51 77.9 50 87.2 51 93.5 52 103.3 52 108.2 51 113.0 50 127.6 51 64.5 100 78.8 100 87.0 100 93.3 100 102.5 100 110.7 100 120.6 100 128.9 100 23.9 37 29.6 38 32.0 37 33.9 36 36.7 36 42.3 38 48.0 40 49.1 38 40.6 63 49.2 62 55.0 63 59.4 64 65.8 64 68.4 62 72.6 60 79.8 62 19.4 100 23.9 100 27.6 100 31.0 100 32.7 100 37.1 100 37.3 100 40.9 100 9.5 49 10.9 46 12.1 44 15.0 48 15.1 46 17.6 47 18.3 49 19.4 47 9.9 51 13,0 54 15.5 56 16.0 52 17.6 54 19.5 53 19.0 51 21.5 53 7.4 100 7.7 100 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7.1 100 6.1 82 6.0 78 6.3 ' NA 6.5 ' NA 6.8 ' NA 4.0 ' NA 4.4 ' NA 4.4 62 1.3 18 1.7 22 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.7 38 12.3 100 13.3 100 14.5 100 15.8 100 17.6 100 18.8 100 19.6 100 20.5 100 2.8 23 3.0 23 3.2 22 3.2 20 3.8 22 4.5 24 4.9 25 5.3 26 9.5 77 10.3 77 11.3 78 12.6 80 13.8 78 14.3 76 14.7 75 15.2 74 NA NA NA NA 6.6 100 NA NA 7.5 100 NA NA 9.9 100 NA NA NA NA 6.5 ' NA 5.6 85 6.0 ' NA 6.2 83 7.2 NA 8.2 83 9.2 ' NA NA NA NA NA 1.0 15 NA NA 1.3 17 NA NA 1.7 17 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.2 NA 21.0 ' NA 23.4 ' NA 21.9 ' NA 26.5 ' NA 27.0 NA 30.7 2 NA 360 ' NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 29 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table USSR: Budget Redistribution of Funds, 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Industry and construction Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Budget allocation 20.6 21.0 22.4 21.1 21.9 23.5 23.9 24.1 22.2 24.7 Payments from profits 19.4 19.0 22.4 21.4 23.6 25.7 28.5 32.6 32.4 32.6 Net contribution to the budget -1.2 -2.0 0 0.3 1.7 2.2 4.6 8.5 10.2 7.9 Agriculture and procurement Budget allocation 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.4 7.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 10.9 Payments from profits 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0 Net contribution to the budget ..... ........... -5.1 -5.2 -5.0 -4.5 -5.0 -5.2 -7.4 -7.6 -7.7 -8.9 Trade Budget allocation 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.2 4.9 4.0 6.1 6.5 6.4 Payments from profits 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 Net contribution to the budget -1.3 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -3.9 -2.7 -4.8 -5.6 -5.3 Transportation and communications Budget allocation ...... . ..... 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 Payments from profits 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.9 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.7 7.4 Net contribution to the budget 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.4 5.7 4.8 5.1 4.5 Municipal economy and housing Budget allocation 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.5 9.1 5.0 NA 5.2 4.9 5.9 Payments from profits 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 NA 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 1,4 Net contribution to the budget -3.0 -3.3 -3.3 -3.5 NA -3.9 NA -3.9 -4.0 -9.5 ' Because of rounding, components may not add to totals shown. 2 Estimated. 30 Approved For Release 2006/ 1/30 : Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A-3 by Major Branch of the Economy ' Billion Current Rubles 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Plan 23.9 30.5 29.6 32.5 32.0 34.1 33.9 36.5 36.7 40.6 42.3 47.0 48.0 49.1 35.1 37.5 37.5 38.2 42.1 41.4 40.2 40.1 41.3 43.0 45.8 46.3 44.3 50.3 11.2 7.0 7.6 5.7 10.1 7.3 6.3 3.6 4.6 2.4 3.5 -0.7 -3.7 1.2 9.5 12.4 10.9 12.9 12.1 13.4 15.0 15.5 15.1 17.5 17.6 19.1 18.3 19.4 1.4 2.3 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.6 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.2 -8.1 -10.1 -9.4 -10.5 -10.5 -10.9 -13.1 -13.0 -13.1 -14.9 -15.8 -16.6 -16.4 - -17.2 6.1 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.8' 3.7 4.0' 4.4 4.42 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 NA 1.9 1,4 1.8 NA 1.9 NA 1.7 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.1 -5.0 -5.1 NA -4.9 -5.4 -1.9 NA -2.5 NA -2.7 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.3 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.7 8.4 9.4 9.4 10.5 10.1 11.7 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.6 5.3 4.9 5.5 5.2 6.4 NA 6.5 6.5' 7.0 5.6 7.3 6.0' 7.4 6.2 8.2 7.2 8.8 8.2 9.2' 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 NA 2.5 1.6 1.8 NA -4.9 -5.2' -5.1 -4.0 -5.3 -4.4' -5.2 -4.5 -5.8 NA -6.3 -6.6 -7.4' 31 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table USSR: Expenditures for Social-Cultural 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Total 37.45 38.16 40.38 40.76 42.92 43.48 45.81 48.31 51.12 51.86 Education, science, and culture ' 17.2 17.51 18.71 18.73 19.67 20.09 21.0 21.85 23.2 23.31 General education NA 8.31 NA 8.75 NA 9.13 9.5 9.89 NA 10.36 Cultural-enlightenment work NA 0.42 NA 0.47 NA 0.52 NA 0.58 NA 0.65 Training of cadres NA 3.25 NA 3.56 3.7 3.95 3.9 4.29 4.3 4.60 Science NA 4.13 NA 4.49 NA 4.93 NA 5.40 ' NA 5.77 ' Publishing NA 0.08 NA 0.10 NA 0.12 NA 0.12 NA 0.12 Art and broadcasting NA 0.30 NA 0.36 NA 0.43 NA 0.50 NA 0.57 Health and physical cul- ture ' 6.5 6.67 7.06 7.10 7.40 7.45 7.7 8.14 8.4 8.55 Health . NA 6.39 NA 6.80 NA 7.12 NA 7.78 NA 8.16 Physical culture NA 0.04 NA 0.04 NA 0.05 NA 0.05 NA 0.04 Social welfare measures .... 13.8 13.98 14.61 14.93 15.85 15,94 17.1 18.32 19.5 20.00 Social security, of which: NA 9.05 NA 9.74 NA 10.37 NA 11.26 NA 12.02 From state social insur- ance NA 6.50 NA 7.14 NA 7.75 NA 8.38 NA 9.05 State social insurance NA 4.04 NA 4.33 NA 4.72 NA 5.47 NA 6.29 Aid to mothers NA 0.96 NA 0.46 NA 0.45 NA 0.45 NA 0.44 For collective farmers' welfare fund NA 0.44 NA 0.40 NA 0.40 NA 1.14 NA 1.26 'Components exclude capital investment. Estimated. 32 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP791300457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A-4 Measures in the State Budget Billion Current Rubles 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Plan 54.80 24.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.2 NA NA 21.1 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 55.94 24.77 10.75 0.70 4.85 6.43 0.12 0.63 9.28 8.74 0.05 21.89 12.74 9.77 7.33 0.44 1.38 Plan 58.50 25.8 NA NA NA NA NA NA 9.3 NA NA 23.3 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 59.42 26.30 11.23 0.75 5.15 6.92 0.12 0.71 9.62 8.98 0.05 23.50 13.62 10.58 7.78 0.43 1.69 Plan 62.94 27.4 10.0 NA 5.2 NA NA NA 9.7 NA NA 25.8 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 63.48 27.95 11.88 0.80 5.57 7.30 0.11 0.80 10.03 9.39 0.05 25.50 14.45 11.35 8.30 0.42 2.34 Plan 67.51 29.9 NA NA 5.7 NA NA NA 10.2 NA NA 27.4 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 67.34 29.81 12.91 0.87 6.17 7.50 0.12 0.86 10.50 9.89 0.06 27.03 15.11 11.93 9.12 0.41 2.40 Plan 70.28 31.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA 10.7 NA NA 28.4 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 71.30 31.57 13.37 0.93 6.63 7.90 0.14 0.97 10.97 10.08 0.06 28.76 16.08 12.73 9.89 0.40 2.39 Plan 76.82 33.2 NA NA 6.5 NA NA NA 11.2 NAA N 32.3 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 77.04 32.79 13.85 07..982 0 94 7..81 0 1.12 11.47 10.4097 0. 32.78 18.17 14.34 11.85 0.39 2.38 Plan 80.5 34.1 NA NAA N NAA N NA 11.5 NAA N 34.9 NA NA NA NA NA Actual 80.74 33.79 14.28 1.04 7.39 7.90 0.15 1.18 11.85 07 100..85 35.10 1921. 15.24 12.75 0.37 2.77 33 Approved For Release 2006/01/30: CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Table USSR: Revenues of 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Total 99.70 102.32 105.54 106.30 110.25 117.16 123.91 130.84 134.10 140.03 Social sector 91.79 93.89 96.65 97.02 100.37 107.09 112.77 119.44 121.64 127.41 Turnover tax receipts 39.1 38.66 39.5 39.31 40.70 40.06 42.2 40.80 43.0 44.54 Payments from profits 31.6 30.87 35.2 35.67 37.18 41.82 43.8 48.00 48.0 48.02 Income tax on organiza- tions 1.5 1.54 1.1 1.15 1.12 1.27 1.15 1.14 Social insurance receipts 5.5 5.56 5.9 6.00 6.29 6.39 26.8 7.12 30.6 7.78 { Residual 14.1 17.26 15.0 14.89 15.08 17.55 22.37 25.93 Private sector 7.91 8.43 8.89 9.27 9.88 10.07 11.14 11.40 12.46 12.62 State taxes on the population 7.3 7.70 8.1 8.44 9.04 9.32 10.3 10.50 11.5 11.60 State loans 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.13 0.28 0.36} Local taxes and 0.6 { } 0.8 { j 0.8 { 1.0 { lotteries 0.55 0.61 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.66 Budget surplus 0.16 0.70 0.15 0.72 0.23 1.92 0.31 2.28 0.20 1.50 'Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 'Estimated. 34 Approved For Release 2606/0f/30 : CIA-RD-17 fAUUUTIXITzFUIIII-1- Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 A-5 the State Budget' Billion Current Rubles 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan Actual Plan 144.93 156.70 160.97 165.96 173.81 175.11 181.84 187.78 194.30 201.32 208.60 218.77 223.7 232.2 238.94 131.37 142.86 146.11 151.25 157.82 159.30 165.26 170.87 176.57 183.03 189.67 199.09 202.9 211.3 216.7 46.6 49.38 54.1 54.46 57.4 55.57 57.9 59.14 62.0 63.47 66.1 66.61 69.9 70.7 73.3 50.4 54.16 54.8 55.56 60.7 60.03 60.6 60.03 62.6 64.43 69.1 69.71 69.9 70.6 78.4 1.23} 1.40 ( 1.351 1.51 1.47 1.46 1.5 1.5 1.5 34.3 8.20 { 37.2 8.71 } 39.7 9.14 46.8 9.75 { } 52.0 10.41 { } 54.5 11.06 { 11.5 12.2 13.0 29.89 31.12 33.21 40.44 43.25) 50.25 50.1 56.3 50.5 13.56 13.84 14.86 14.70 15.99 15.81 16.58 16.91 17.73 18.29 18.93 19.68 20.8 20.9 22.2 12.7 12.74 13.7 13.72 15.0 14.79 15.6 15.83 16.7 17.12 17.9 18.36 19.6 19.6 20.9 ( 0.47} 0.33 0.34 0.38 0.44 j. 0.56 j 0.6 .} 0.9 1.2 {. } 1.0 { ) 1.0 k. 1 1.0 {. 1 1.0 1 1.2 1.3 1.0.63 0.65 0.68 0.70 0.73 1 0.76 t 0.7 0.27 2.10 0.20 1.81 0.20 1.89 0.23 3.80 0.21 3.94 0.19 4.25 0.2 5.5 0.21 STAT 35 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 STATINTL STATINTL Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP791300457A0007001400014 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505 I March 1978 Dear Larry: Enclosed are six copies of one of the two reports you recently requested for passing to various pro- fessors in your area: ER 77-10529, The Soviet State Budget Since 1965, December 1977. The other report -- ER IR 75-3, The Economic Impact of Soviet Military Spending, April 1975 -- unfortunately is restricted to official users only. In its stead I propose to send you Part III of this year's hearings on the Allocation of Resources in the Soviet Union and China before the Joint Economic Committee. This document con- tains the testimony of Admiral Turner on the same subject matter and summarizes the essential findings of the official use only document. Copies of the Congressional report will be forwarded to you when available, probably in a week or two. Economic Research Enclosure: As stated Distribution: Original - Addressee 1 - Associate Coordinator for Academic Relations, NFAC (w/o encls) 2 - EO/ER (w/o encls) 47--:-PPG/R&D (w/o encls) 2 - SA/ER (w/o encls)(1-chron;l-gen11) OSA/ER: 1 March 1978 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 STATINTL Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 STAT Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Next 4 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 STATINTL ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 7 December 1977 MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Distribution Section, P&PD/OL FROM: Chief, Registry and Dissemination Branch, PPG SUBJECT: 4 Dissemination of OER Report, ER 77-10529 (425-1218-77), The Soviet State Budget Since 1965, UNCLASSIFIED Attached is the dissemination list for subject report. Five hundred (500) copies will be picked up or forwarded to PPG/R&D, Please n-tify copies for distribution. Attachment: a/s PPG/R&D, 25X1 A. ST TIffki hen you receive the remaining ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 STAT Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 Next 19 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP79600457A000700140001-1 .. RECORD OF REVIEW OF OER PUBLICATIONS FOR. SECURITY/SANITIZATION APPROVAL SUBJECTANA El? 7-7- /0 6:29, 77ze 519 rise it ,5441e et-017 el- 5%-