INTERNATIONAL ENERGY BIWEEKLY REVIEW 29 DECEMBER 1977

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00457A001100040001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 114
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 4, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 29, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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29 D cember :1977
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Secret
1.I 77;426-: ,.
19 erribec 1477-
367
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Warning Notice
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(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Release to ...
Classified by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
? 55(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified an:
date impossible to determine
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SECRET
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT-ORCON
CONTENTS
Page
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
A Comment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
USSR: West Siberian Oil Reserves . . . . . . . . . . 4
USSR-Italy: Renegotiated Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . 6
USSR Set To Sign Gas Lift Contracts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Canada: Large Alberta Oil Find . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Canada: Mixed Prospects for Nonconventional
Crude Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
EC Coal Industry Remains in the Doldrums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Foreign R&D in Magnetohydrodynamic
Power Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
29 December 1977 SECRET
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SECRET
NOFORN-NOCONTRACT-ORCON
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY BIWEEKLY REVIEW
An effort is already under way in OPEC for a price increase early in 1978.
Spearheading the move is Venezuelan President Perez, who is concerned about his
party's chances in next fall's national elections and wants to compensate for failing to
fully capitalize on hosting the Caracas meeting. He is calling for a special meeting to
raise prices before the cartel's next scheduled ministerial session in June 1978. Besides
seeking an immediate increase, Perez is advocating adoption of a formula that will
automatically raise crude oil prices in the future.
Extraordinary ministerial meetings are not unusual in OPEC. Several have been
held since 1973; the last was in April 1976 in Geneva to discuss oil prices. Support for
one now is most likely to come from those countries that argued for a price rise at
Caracas: Iraq, Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria. Saudi Arabia and Iran are satisfied with
the results at Caracas, where they successfully engineered a price freeze with minimal
friction among cartel members.
Riyadh and Tehran are on public record as advocating a freeze for all of 1978,
although the Shah is probably less committed to this position than the Saudis. They
will look to the market as an indicator of the intensity of pressure they can expect
within OPEC for a price rise. Indeed, Saudi oil minister Yamani expects market forces
to start exerting strong upward pressure on prices during the last half of 1978.
Yamani's assessment of the market is more perceptive than is commonly realized.
To characterize the current market as "soft" is misleading; OPEC is in a considerably
stronger position than two years ago, for example. In 1975, demand for OPEC crude
was about 27 million b/d, several million b/d below OPEC productive capacity. Now
demand for OPEC oil is 31 million b/d. Moreover, we have recently lowered our
estimates of OPEC productive capacity to 33 million b/d. The new figure reflects
both production ceilings and technical constraints in several OPEC countries. We will
be addressing these problems in future issues of this publication and will publish a
revised OPEC oil production capacity table in the 11 January 1978 issue. (Secret
Noforn-Nocontract-Orcon)
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcome. They may be
directed to of the Office of Economic Research, telephone [phone].
29 December 1977 SECRET
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Press stories last weekend gave a fairly accurate generalized description of
technical (reservoir pressure, water, and maintenance) problems that are likely to
inhibit any major expansion in Saudi oil output. Increasingly concerned about
optimizing ultimate recovery at its oil fields, Saudi petroleum officials are beginning
to identify these difficulties more openly. Future issues of International Energy
Biweekly Review will provide detailed analyses of the technical constraints that might
limit Saudi production in the near and medium terms.
After careful examination of evidence, we still discount the assertion which
appeared in the press that Saudi Arabia deliberately overstated the volume of its oil
production and exports during first half 1977. The assertion is largely predicated on
incomplete Saudi oil export data which have consistently understated the volume of
Saudi oil exports-not only during the OPEC two-tier price split in first half 1977, but
also in 1976 and second half 1977 when Riyadh had no apparent motive for distorting
production information.
We also dispute the definitive assertion that weather was not severe enough to
hamper Saudi oil loading operations in the early months of 1977. We undertook a
thorough examination of handling operations at Ras Tanura earlier this year.
Discussions with the contractors who designed and built the offshore loading facilities
revealed that the port is subject to extremely restricted operating conditions for
tankers, particularly at Sea Island where VLCCs are loaded, when shifting winds are
encountered. The precise wind and wave conditions at Has Tanura during that period
have not been ascertained because the nearest weather station with available data is
located more than 30 kilometers away, inland at Dhahran. (Secret Noforn)
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USSR: WEST SIBERIAN OIL RESERVES
A recent report by the US Geological Surrey that the West Siberian basin may
have as much as 48 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in additio-i to total discoveries of
32 billion barrels does not change CIA estimates of Soviet oil production up to the
mid-1980s. Because of time lags in discovering and developing new deposits before
production. gets under way, any estimate of undiscovered oil is not very relevant to the
question of how much oil the Soviets will be able to produce over the next seven or
eight years. More relevant are additions to proved reserves. On this, the Soviets are
apparently running behind plan.
CIA estimated last April that some 27 billion barrels of oil :iad been discovered in
West Siberia-only 5 billion barrels below the Geological Survey estimate of
discoveries. Production to date from these fields has run about 7 billion barrels. CIA
has not independently estimated ultimate potential oil resources of the West Siberian
basin or any other Soviet petroleum region.
Based on analogies with US sedimentary basins and the use of volumetric
estimating techniques, the Geological Survey estimated that tle oil and gas potential
in West Siberia ranged from a low of 20 billion barrels to a high of 80 billion barrels of
oil; it reported the high estimate as the most realistic.
Other researchers are much less optimistic about potential oil and gas resources in
West Siberia. In October, an international oil company estimated total oil potential of
the West Siberian basin at 19 billion barrels.
Soviet geologists undoubtedly have made estimates of undiscovered oil. The
director of the West Siberian Research Institute for Petroleum Exploration recently
stated in Pravda that Soviet geologists have discovered only part of the predicted
reserves of oil and gas in West Siberia. He also said that in West Siberia nearly all
"structural traps"--the type of geological formation in which most of the world's oil is
found-have already been prospected and that now "nonstructural traps" must be
sought. To date, these formations have been only a minor factor in the total world
output of oil.
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The Soviet official also stated that geologists in Tyumen-the principal producing
area in West Siberia-- have failed to meet the planned increase in oil reserves in 1976
and were also behind plan this year. The Soviets have not reoorted it major oilfield
discovery in the past few years. (Secret Noforn)
[taly has acquiesced in Soviet demands for a sizable increase in payments for
Soviet gas. In return, Moscow has promised-but is not commiJed-to purchase $340
million in goods and services before 1980 from ENI, Italy's state--owned energy
company. Moscow also apparently extended its commitment to deliver gas to Italy for
an additional six years and promised Italy a share of any new agreements to supply gas
to Western Europe. The new price accord was worked out in November, and Italian
officials went to Moscow last week for the final signing.
Natural gas is Italy's second most important source of energy. In 1976 consump-
tion was 953 billion cubic feet (465,000 b/d of oil
equivalent). Italy: Energy Consumption
ENI paid about $0.54 per thousand cubic feet
for Soviet gas in 1976, according to Soviet trade
statistics. The new agreement apparently will boost
the price to about $1.27 per thousand cubic feet
retroactive to mid-1977. This still compares favor-
ably with the current West European price of about
$1.70 per thousand cubic feet
ay Source, 1976
Percent
Total ............................................
100
Oil ..........................................
68
Gas ..........................................
16
Coal ........................................
8
Hydro/geothermal ................
7
Nuclear ..................................
1
The new agreement also establishes formulas tying future gas prices to fuel oil
prices, assuring that Soviet gas earnings will rise with Western energy prices and that
the gap between Soviet and Western gas prices will gradually narrow.
The gas price dispute began in February, when Soviet Premier Kosygin told
Italian officials that the Soviets wanted a higher price for their as. To put pressure on
the Italians, the Soviets in May threatened to cut off gas shipments; it seems unlikely,
however, that they would have carried out this threat. Fir its part, ENI first
considered submitting the case to international arbitration but f eared a similar squeeze
from other suppliers if the dispute were made public.
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After a meeting in June with the Soviets, ENI finally decided to agree to higher
prices if the Soviets agreed to increase the quantity of gas delivered. Soviet gas
deliveries to Italy began in 1974 and will amount to about 175 billion cubic feet this
year (86,000 b/d of oil equivalent or an estimated 18 percent of total Italian gas
consumption). The volume is scheduled to increase to 247 billion cubic feet by 1980
(120,000 b/d of oil equivalent) and continue at that level until the year 2000-appar-
ently a six-year extension of Moscow's original commitment.
The higher gas prices and scheduled increases in amounts delivered should
increase the value of Soviet gas exports to Italy from $69 million in 1976 to about $300
million in 1978. ENI doubts that the Soviets will fulfill their pledge to buy $340
million in goods and services in the next two years, but it can point to the pledge as
evidence that the Italians did not cave in to Soviet pressure.
ENI believes, moreover, that this part of the agreement may strengthen its
position in future arbitration if the Soviets should violate the pricing or delivery terms
of the new agreement. (Secret Noforn-Nocontract)
USSR: SET TO SIGN GAS LIFT CONTRACTS
The Soviets are nearing a final decision on purchasing $400 million in gas lift
equipment for two West Siberian fields-the giant: Samotlor and the smaller Fedorovo
fields. Contracts may be signed as early as February 1978, culminating more than two
years of negotiations. Currently in the running for the lucrative deal are four consortia
led by West German, French, and two Japanese firms. At least three US firms are in
the running as consortia participants to supply down-hole and surface equipment.
Gas lift is a secondary recovery technique in which gas under pressure is injected
into oil wells in order to bring the oil to the surface when the natural drive mechanism
of the field is insufficient to do so. It also is employed to stabilize oil production at
older fields with rapidly increasing water output. The oil is lifted as a foamy mixture
and separated from the gas in an oil-gas separator. The current gas lift proposal
projects a maximum production rate of 1.1 million b/d of oil from roughly 1,400
mechanized gas-lift wells at Samotlor in 1981.
At present, Samotlor is being worked using the "water-flooding" technique.
Water is injected beneath and at the edges of the oil-saturated rock stratum to drive
the oil upward and sideways into the producing wells. Production at Samotlor is now
at 2.6 million b/d from roughly 2,400 producing and injection wells. By 1991 when all
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producing wells will have been converted to gas lift, output from 3,200 wells will
decline to 320,000 b/d due tc increasing water incursion in tfe field. At that time, the
water cut will rise above 90 percent; that is, 10 tons of fluid will have to be lifted for
each ton of oil recovered. (Secret Noforn-Nocontract)
CANADA: LARGE ALBERTA OIL FINE)
Canada's first major conventional oilfield discovery in 12 rears is attracting heavy
interest in an area 135 kilometers southwest of Edmonton, Alberta. Land sales in the
area are bringing record prices as drillers scramble to get in on the find. While the
discovery is expected to arrest declining domestic reserves, it will not reverse Canada's
growing oil trade deficit.
The Discovery
In January 1977, a wildca_ well being drilled by Chevron struck oil in a Devonian
formation at about 3,000 meters in an area now designated West Pembina. After
notifying the Alberta government, Chevron continued drilling; and subsequently has
brought in several additional producing wells. The discoveries indicate two new
overlapping deep plays below the old Pembina Cardium field, which has produced oil
For more than 20 years from wells drilled to 1,5')0 meters. Curtently Alberta estimates
proved reserves in the Cardium field at 870 million barrels, one-third of the 2.5 billion
barrels of recoverable oil prig-:pally estimated in the field.
Rumors of the discovery leaked out in September 1977 and have since pushed
land prices in the Pembina area up sharply in spite of Chevron's attempts to downplay
the size of the find. For example, Home Oil Co. Ltd. recently purchased 3,600
hectares for the highest price ever paid for oil leases on a single parcel of land in
Alberta. An adjacent parcel was purchased for a near record cf $32,200 per hectare.
A Major Find
Even though several years will be required to fully evaluate the field, Alberta's
Energy Minister has already called West Pembina a major find. Based on his
statement and production tests from several wells in both Devonian and Mississippian
strata, industry sources suggest a minimum of 500 million barrels of oil are potentially
recoverable. Several believe the field may be a part of a larger play running along the
Rocky Mountain foothills from jasper Park in Alberta to the Montana border.
SECRET 29 December 1977
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To date the bulk of exploratory drilling is centered on two Devonian strata where
Home Oil and Dome Petroleum Ltd. have also made discoveries. In addition to these
firms and Chevron, another Canadian group headed by Champlain Oil is drilling in
the area. A second drilling location in the Brazeau River Basin, south of Chevron's first
discovery well, is also receiving substantial interest. Dome Petroleum and Amoco-
Pacific are drilling at this site.
No Policy Change Expected
The new discovery ends a decade in which no major oilfields have been found in
Alberta. The last major oil strikes occurred at Zama and Rainbow Lakes in northwest
Alberta in 1964 and 1966, respectively. Since then only small isolated discoveries have
been made and most industry efforts have been directed toward developing known oil
reserves. More recently, oil firms have been drilling for natiira gas because of rapidly
rising wellhead prices and improved returns to producers. As a result of the interest in
natural gas, Canada's proved reserves of oil and gas liquids have continued a decline
that started in 1969 when reserves peaked at 10.5 billion barrels. By the end of this
year, proved reserves will have fallen to an estimated 7.2 billion barrels.
The new Pembina play is not expected to affect Ottawa's policy of phasing out
crude exports to the United States. To protect declining reserves, Ottawa has cut
exports to the US market from a peak of 1.2 million barrels daily in 1973 to an
estimated 274,000 barrels per (lay in 1977 and plans to phase .)ut oil exports entirely
by 1981. (Confidential Noforn)
CANADA: MIXED PROSPECTS FOR NONCONVENTIONAL
CRUDE PRODUCTION
Oil companies are showing renewed interest in exploiting Canada's huge oil sand
and heavy oil resources. Oil prices and tax/royalty concession, from the government
are now adequate to assure a reasonable return to Canada's one operating tar sands
plant and to the Syncrude plant about to initiate production, thereby encouraging
other companies to reconsider projects they had abandoned.
High capital costs, unresolved technical problems, and uncertain government
policies continue to retard development, however. Much higher oil prices will be
needed to justify the continually rising construction costs of the newer plants. If all
projects now under construction and consideration are implemented, Canadian
nonconventional oil production could total nearly 700,000 b/d by 1990.
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Alberta's Tar Sands
~iw~3C~'1#Qi~
;feat SJave
Lake
PEACE
RIVER I
-6Calgery
l Tar sand deposit
M Heavy oilfield
0 150
Kilometers
TIERRITORIES
S~KATCHEW AN
COLD
LAKE
.! f~askaf
?
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The Athabasca and adjacent tar sands together with the heavy oil deposits of
I.loydminster and Cold Lake contain one of the world's largest reserves of petroleum
hydrocarbons. Canada's Department of Energy, Mines, and Resources has estimated
that the tar sands contain from 70 billion to as much as 4200 billion barrels of
recoverable crude. The heavy -oil deposits are estimated to contain 15 billion to 35
billion barrels. If the maximum recovery estimates are correct, Canada's known crude
reserves would be increased about 30 times and the world's crude reserves would be
augmented by about one-third.
The Lloydminster crudes are fluid enough to be exploited by conventional
methods, but the Cold Lake crude is so viscous that thermal injection is required. The
tar sand bitumen is extremely -viscous with API gravities of 6 degrees to 10 degrees
and with a high sulfur content. It is exploitable chiefly by thermal or chemical in situ
methods except for about 10 percent of the sands that lie close enough to the surface to
permit strip mining. Current production depends on surface mining followed by
processing to separate the sands from bitumen. Commercial scale in situ recovery is
probably at least a decade away. Following recovery, the bitumen must be processed
further to produce a light synthetic crude oil.
Development of Canada's nonconventional crude resources has had a checkered
history and production currently averages only about 100,000 b/d with output about
evenly divided between tar sands and heavy oil. Prospects for development were
encouraging in the 1960s when Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. constructed the first tar
sand plant. Because of technical and labor problems, however, the plant's output
averaged only 75 percent of its then 45,000 b/d capacity. By the end of the 1960s, the
Great Canadian plant's difficulties had cooled interest in further tar sand
development.
Interest revived in the early 1970s and was reinforced by the 1973 oil crisis. The
Syncrude consortium began construction of Canada's second tar sand plant in 1973
but the project was nearly aborted two years later due to large cost overruns. The
plant's 125,000 b/d capacity was estimated in 1973 to cost $500 million but is now
expected to come in at $2 billion to $2.5 billion when fully completed in 1983. Capital
costs per daily barrel of capacity will approach $20,000 compared with $10,000 for
conventional crude in Canada, less than $6,000 for North Sea Oil, and $250 for Middle
East oil. Because of skyrocketing costs, one of the partner:; withdrew from the
consortium leaving the other t:nree to find new capital or abandon the project.
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Type
Capacity
Status (Thousand b/d)
Initial
Production
Cost
(Billion US $)
Great Canadian Oil
Sands, Ltd . ......................
Tar sand
Completed
65
1967
0.3
Syncrude Canada, Ltd. ......
Tar sand
Under construction
125
1978
2.0-2,5
(expansion) ......................
Tar sand
Possible
125
late 1980s
NA
Shell Canada, Ltd . ..............
Tar sand
Proposed
125
late 1980s
3.4-4.0
Husky Oil Operations
Heavy oil
Proposed
100
early 1980s
0.7
Ltd . ..................................
Imperial Oil, Ltd .................
(upgrade only)
Heavy oil
Proposed
120
mid 1980s
4.0
(full production)
The federal government, together with the provincial governments of Alberta
and Ontario, rescued Syncrude by providing the necessary equity capital and by
granting tax concessions, subsidies, and a guarantee that its output would be sold at
world prices. With this help, the project continued and is scheduled to come into
partial production next year with 52,000 b/d of capacity.
Soaring construction costs and Syncrude's near demise brought three other
proposed tar sand projects to a halt. While they had received technical approval from
Alberta, all three projects were stymied by the increasingly apparent technical and
financial uncertainties. Moreover, both the federal and provincial governments were
reluctant to grant the newer projects concessions similar to those extended to
Syncrude.
While tar sand development has gone through its ups and downs, longstanding
production of heavy oil from the Lloydminster fields has continued. Production now
averages about 50,000 b/d and could be increased except for the limited market for
this type of crude. Also, until recently oil prices were not high enough to justify the
cost of upgrading these heavy crudes to a readily marketable refinery feedstock.
Prospects are Improving as Oil Prices Rise
Rising world oil prices are now reviving the oil companies' interest in nonconven-
tional crude production. Ottawa also recently renewed its interest in tar sands and
heavy oil development because of the disappointing results achieved thus far from
Arctic and offshore oil exploration. Since early 1977, the federal government has
urged the provinces to grant tax and royalty concessions to the oil companies in order
to accelerate development. Toward the end of the year, Ottawa introduced legislation
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to tax all crude oil refined in Canada with the proceeds to be used to subsidize
nonconventional crude output.
The new climate induced Shell Canada to resurrect its plan to build a 125,000-
b/d tar sands plant. The firm is again actively seeking partners and negotiating
tax/royalty arrangements with Alberta and Ottawa. Shell estimates the cost of this
project at $3 billion to $4 billion. Husky Oil is also forming a consortium to build a
i.00,000-b/d plant to upgrade heavy oil. Imperial Oil.. already involved in the
Syncrude project, has recently proposed the first large-scale project for in situ recovery
and upgrading of 120,000 b/d of heavy oil. This project will r,~quire an investment of
$4 billion, or more than $33,000 per daily barrel of capaciti.
New interest is also being shown in developing techniques to recover oil from
deep tar sand deposits. Petro-Canada,*the national oil co,npany, is negotiating with
Japanese interests to finance and build a $75 million pilot project to develop a new
method for in situ exploitation.
But Many Problems Remain
Despite reviving interest, world oil prices are still not high enough to justify the
projects now being proposed. While price levels and tax/royalty arrangements are
now adequate to insure Syncrude a 10-percent return on its investment, output from
the new projects will need much higher prices because of the larger investments they
require. The Shell and Imperial projects probably will cost almost twice that of
Syncrude, although capacity of the three plants will be approximately the same.
Moreover, most companies may demand a higher rate of return than Syncrude
now expects. Imperial Oil's president recently stated that the risks involved in heavy
oil development called for a 2C-percent return on capital. ('lea,-ly the new projects are
being considered on the hone both that adequate tax /royalty concessions will
ultimately be forthcoming from the provincial and federal governments and that
prices will be high enough to make the new plants profitable when they come into
production in the mid-to-late 1980s.
Neither Ottawa nor Alberta and Saskatchewan have yet announced a comprehen-
sive tax policy for nonconventional oil development. The ta.r/royalty arrangements for
each project are being negotiated separately, with the provinces and Ottawa
determined not to concede more than is necessary. The lack of a general policy
combined with continuing technical and financial uncertainties seriously hampers
negotiations between the governments and the oil companies
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The Outlook: Slow Development
If all projects now under construction or consideration are brought to completion,
capacity for nonconventional production would approach 700,000 b/d by 1990. This
assumes that Shell and Imperial soon find additional equity capital and reach
tax/royalty agreements with Ottawa and Alberta. It also requires that Syncrude's
expansion continue until it reaches its full 250,000-b/d capacity. It further assumes
that an adquately trained labor force can be attracted to Alberta and that the needed
infrastructure can be developed to support these huge projects. Even under these very
favorable circumstances, nonconventional output probably would supply little more
than one-fourth of Canada's domestic consumption by 1990 and would not fill the gap
created by declining conventional production.
For the longer term, large-scale nonconventional oil development will depend
heavily on the period required to achieve commercially viable methods for in situ
recovery from deep tar sands. It will also depend on the pace at which oil prices
increase relative to rising construction and equipment costs. Costs may be further
increased by the fact that thermal in situ recovery techniques are themselves relatively
large energy consumers. Finally, government tax policies, which can either ease or
add to costs, will be an important determinant. (Confidential Noforn)
EC COAL INDUSTRY REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS
Despite large amounts of government aid, the coal industry in the European
Community continues to be characterized by falling production, a shrinking labor
force, and rising costs. It suffers from weak demand and strong import competition.
Although EC planners anticipate a continued decline through the mid-1980s, sharply
higher oil prices within the next few years could brighten the industry's prospects
considerably.
The Industry's Decline
Despite efforts in the 1970s to minimize dependence on imported energy, EC
coal production has declined steadily since 1964 and is expected to fall another 3
percent this year. The major producers in the Community-the United Kingdom and
West Germany-have been forced to continue closing mines and laying off workers.
The number of miners in the EC dropped from 369,000 in 1973 to 326,000 in June
1977.
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Two :major problems have plagued the coal industry in recent years: declining
demand for coal by the steel industry and competition from cheaper imports of steam
coal. Deliveries of coking coa.'., which make up about 40 pe -cent of total EC coal
output, currently are running 7.3 percent below the 11:174 level when EC steel
production peaked. Coal impcrts have been rising steadily in response to increased
European Community: Coal Consumption
i`aillio t Tons
1973 1974 1975 197h 19771
Production 2 .................... 270.2 242.6 256.9 247 7 240.6
Net imports .................... 28.9 36.3 39.7 42.4 49.0
Consumption from
stocks .......................... 2.7 12.0 -14.4 -1.6 -3.6
Apparent consumption 301.8 290.9 282.2 288.5 286.0
Estimated.
Excluding lignite, which is significant only in West Germar y.
A four-month-lon miners' strike in the UK during the eil embargo
distorted the long-term production trend in 1974-75.
demand from the electric power industry. [n 1976, coal consumption for the
generation of electricity reached its highest level since 1969. While the large increase
last year was principally the result of a shortage of water for hydroelectric generation,
demand for steam coal has been rising since 197, 4 and is expected to increase again this
year. Moreover, individual EC governments offer a variet of incentives to promote
the use of coal for generating electricity.
European Community: Coal Deliveries to Power
Stations '
Million Tons
1 to-Jun
1974
197?
1976
1977
Total ........................
118.7
124.8
140.8
73..1
United Kingdorr . ......
66.1
79 1
79.6
41_f
West Germany ........
33.5
256
34.0
15.(1
France ......................
11.6
130
1.8.8
10.5
Denmark ..................
2.7
34
3.4
2. c:
Belgium ...................
3.0
2.7
3.0
1.L
Italy ..........................
1.0
LO
1.2
O.E
Netherlands ..............
0.8
0
0.8
0.F
Data are not available for Ireland or Luxembourg.
The Community Tries To Cope
Given the divergent energy interests of Community mem:)ers, the EC Commis-
sion has been unable to devise effective measures to reverie the downward trend in
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coal production. To date, only one Commission proposal has been approved, and the
resulting program is little more than an information-gathering exercise. Under the
program, member states must send the Commission quarterly reports on coal imports
from outside the Community, including tonnage, average price, country of origin and
duration of supply contracts. Member states having little coal of their own, such as
Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands, are concerned that the surveillance program
could be used in the future to target import restrictions. The Commission, however,
firmly opposes any attempt to restrict imports.
A Commission proposal to allocate nearly $200 million in 1978-80 to finance
pithead coal stocks as an energy security measure has met strong opposition. The
Italians believe that the United Kingdom and West Germany should finance their own
stocks, while the Dutch insist that measures to promote coal consumption should take
first priority. West Germany disapproves of the proposal, arguing that it is too narrow
in scope and that other energy stocks, such as oil reserves, should be financed as well.
West Germany and the United Kingdom are alone in supporting a Commission
proposal to allocate about $600 million over a 15-year period to subsidize investment
in powerplants that use EC-produced coal. The noncoal producing members are quite
willing to encourage the use of coal but feel that imported coal should be subsidized
too. In an effort to compromise, the Commission has offered to allocate 70 to 80
percent of the funds to power stations using any coal while reserving the rest of the
funds for those using only EC coal. However, West Germany and the United
Kingdom insist that only EC coal be granted such subsidies. The Germans believe the
compromise would have them bear much of the burden of financing import
competition for their high-cost coal industry.
National Programs
Programs carried out by individual governments have succeeded only in slowing
the decline in coal production. The UK's National Coal Board has acknowledged that
the multibillion dollar investment program begun in 1974 is unlikely to lead to any
increase in coal output by 1985. Most of the funds are to be used to replace depleted
capacity. The UK's electric power industry, which consumes 60 percent of coal
output, is operating its coal-fired plants at about 85 percent of capacity and foresees
slow growth in electric power demand through the mid-1980s. The Central Electricity
Generating Board had planned to build only one new coal-fired plant in the next
several years but under pressure from the miners has reluctantly agreed to a second if
the Treasury will pay the cost of carrying the excess capacity.
For the past 10 years, West Germany has been trying to stem the decline of its
coal industry through subsidies and investment aids to both producers and consumers.
Bonn also has quotas and tariffs on coal imports and has been financing coal stockpiles
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since 1973. Government energy planners hope to keep bituminous production
capacity from falling below the current 94 million tons a year. This would be 2
percent above estimated 1977 output. Early this year the electric power industry
concluded an agreement with the coal industry guaranteeing that power plants will
maintain the recent average rate of consumption of bituminous coal-33 million
tons-through 1987.
The latest forecasts by member countries indicate that EC coal production in
1985 will be about 8 percent below estimated output in 1977. Community planners
expect sluggish demand to keep a damper on production. The steel industry slump is
European Community: Coal Production
Thousand Tons
Total ....................... 258,892 247,695 240,554 220,360
United Kingdom ...... 127,789 122,202 120,400 120, D00
West Germany ........ 99,161 96325 92,000 82,300$
France ...................... 22,414 21,879 21,000 11,D00
Belgium .................... 7,478 7,238 7,100 7,300
Ireland ...................... 48 49 52 58
Italy ......................... 2 2 2 2
' Estimated.
Projected.
' Residual based on EC Commission forecast of Community
output in 1985
likely to continue through the mid-1980s. Increased consumption of EC coal by the
electric power industry will depend on the price competitiveness of EC coal with
imported coal and with other fuels. In West Germany, for example, the cost of
domestic coal now is roughly one-third higher than the cost of imported coal or heavy
fuel oil and more than double the cost of natural gas.
The outlook could improve considerably within a few years if oil prices begin to
rise sharply. While demand for coking coal would remain weak, steam coal
consumption almost certainly would increase as industrial users converted from oil to
coal. The UK coal industry would benefit most since it is the biggest in the
Community and has the largest share of steam coal in its product mix. Under these
conditions, annual coal production in the European Community might reach about
250 million tons by 1985, nearly 15 percent more than the EC currently projects.
(Confidential)
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
SECRET
FOREIGN R&D IN MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC POWER GENERATION*
The only foreign countries with operating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) facili-
ties more advanced than those of the United States are the USSR and Japan.
Nevertheless, no country appears to be in a position to make as widespread
commercial use of MHD as the United States, and the United States continues to have
a clear lead in development of coal-fired systems. Even in the countries with the most
advanced programs, MHD is not likely to have a significant impact on satisfaction of
energy needs before the end of the century.
MHD programs in other countries are constrained to developing small generators,
studying limited aspects of materials or component development, and developing the
theoretical foundations of MHD generation. These programs provide important
technical assistance to the major programs in the USSR, Japan, and the United States.
The Soviet Union has an impressive MHI) power generation program that
continues to receive attention and support because of its potential for achieving
conversion efficiencies as high as 60 percent. The first large-scale, pilot commercial
MHD/steam generation plant is planned to be operational near Moscow by 1985. This
plant, the MHDS-500, will have an electric output of 250 megawatts from a
conventional steam turbine. Successful demonstration of integrated power generation
in this pilot plant could lead to construction of the first large-scale, commercial
MHD/steam power plant by 1995.
The Soviet program continues to emphasize open-cycle, gas-fired power gener-
ators. While acknowledging that coal appears to be the most efficient fuel for MHD
power generation, the Soviets now plan to continue to use natural gas in MHD systems
until at least 1995 and then switch to coal. Some coal ash injection experiments will
continue at the U-02 facility in Moscow to provide materials performance data under
coal-slagging conditions.
The Soviet program has also emphasized pilot plant development based on the
reasoning that a small installation involving all components of an MHD generating
system should be put into operation first. This approach allows testing of materials in
*This article summarizes the findings of a recentlt ublished intelligence assessment. Copies of the
publication, OSI 77-10097, November 1977, Secret may be ordered by calling OSI/IPS,
telephone [phone].
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actual pilot plant test beds and gives experience in integrated plant operation. The
Soviets have also supported research on closed-cycle MHE power generation on a
much lower scale because o less optimism about its potential.
The U-25 MHD generator is the showpiece and principal test unit of the Soviet
MHD program. The U-25 is noteworthy in that it is the first large MHD generator to
combine all elements of an MHD power generation facility a-id to be connected to an
electric utility grid. The U-25 has achieved a Dower output of 20.4 MWe during a 30-
minute test run and successfully operated at power levels lip t:) 12 MWe during a 250-
hour test in late April of th-s year. The U-25 is also being used as a test bed for
materials and components for the MHDS-500 facility just as the U-02 was used as a
test bed for the U-25 generator.
The latest Soviet electrodes are at about the same level of performance as that
attained through current US electrode technology, but poor Soviet instrumentation
and data-gathering skills have retarded development of high-performance, long-life
electrodes with a lifetime of 500 hours that would make commercial MHD power
generation economically feas;ble. At this time, the USSR has not achieved electrode
lifetimes of 100 hours at significant power densities.
The Soviets also lack experience with materials and electrodes for coal-firing
conditions. Some small-scale coal slag simulation tests have been conducted using the
U-02 generator, and Soviet cermet electrodes were tested recently at the University of
Tennessee under coal-slagging conditions. These electrodes la:;ted 10 to 20 minutes at
slagging temperatures, equaling the performance of US electrodes under the same
conditions. The Soviets may also receive some information on coal-fired MHD
generation as a result of their MHD cooperative program with Poland. Recently the
Soviets have begun to assist India in its efforts to develop a coal-fired generator. This
assistance is primarily political, but may also be an effort to gain additional
information on coal-fired MHD.
Japan
Japan, whose MHD program ranks second to that of the Soviet Union, has the
only operational MHD generator using a superconducting magnet. The Japanese lead
in applying superconducting magnet technology, which is essential in the develop-
ment of economically feasible MHD power generation, and will continue to lead at
least until the US magnet which was recently installed on the Soviet U-25 MHD
generator is fully operational.
Japan is continuing a small, narrowly focused program directed at development
of a commercial, open-cycle, oil-fired MHD power generator. The most significant
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result of this two-phase effort was the successful development of a 3.8-tesla supercon-
ducting magnet for the Mark V generator. The first phase of the Japanese program,
which called for the development of a highly efficient power generator by means of
short test runs on a 1-MWe generator and long-duration test runs on a 1- to 2-kWe
generator, has been completed. The second phase, which will center on development
of long-duration 0.1-MWe generators as working models of a 10-MWe, long-duration,
pilot power plant, began in 1976. A major goal of this seven-year program is to
develop a 5-tesla superconducting magnet for the Mark VIII generator. If the second
phase is successful, Japan may have an operational, long-duration, 10-MWe MHD
power generator in operation by 1995.
Other Countries
Poland supports an MHD program aimed at developing a coal-fired, open-cycle
MHD power generator for use as a base load facility. Current generators have
achieved 3- to 4-MWt outputs-or about a 1-MWe output-and are being used to
develop materials and components. The Polish program does not have the necessary
funds and facilities to achieve significant power output levels within the next 25 years.
Closed-cycle and liquid-metal MHD generators have not received as much
foreign emphasis for power generation application as has open-cycle generation. As a
result, foreign programs tend to be smaller and to show less development. One of the
few countries doing advanced work in closed-cycle MHD is the Netherlands. In a
program at the University of Technology at Eindhoven, the Dutch are attempting to
develop a coal-fired, blowdown generator capable of providing commercial power.
Funded by the Netherlands Government, the research is based on past shock-tube
experiments. Immediate goals include proving that closed-cycle power generation can
compete with open-cycle generation and that a basis for engineering development
exists.
MHD programs in other foreign countries tend to be limited by lack of funds,
facilities, and skilled workers. These programs are constrained to investigating
portions of the MHD power generation problem such as materials and component
development, theoretical aspects of MHD power generation, and the economic
potential of commercial MHD generators. Some countries do have MHD generators,
but these are low-output, research facilities rather than models of commercial electric
power generators. Almost from its beginning, research and development in MHD
power generation has been supported by extensive international cooperation, interna-
tional conferences, national symposia with international participation, and bilateral
exchanges. These cooperative efforts all serve as forums for information exchange and
cooperation. As a result of the free interaction among MHD programs, many of these
smaller programs contribute significantly to the larger programs in the USSR, Japan,
and the United States.
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A magnetohydrodynamic generator is a device for the direct conversion of
energy. It transforms heat (thermal energy) by using the interaction of a flowing,
ionized (electrically conductive) gas with a strong magnetic: field. An MHD generator
does not require the intermediate step of rotational machinery (mechanical energy)
found in conventional electrical generating systems. Fuel is burned to produce the
ionized gas, which passes through a channel in the magnetic field. The resulting
interaction of the magnetic yield and the gas produces a voltage across electrodes
protruding through the channel walls.
There are two basic types of MHD generators: open-cycle and closed-cycle
generators. In the open-cycle system, hot gas, produced b~ the combustion of a fossil
fuel, is passed through the channel and exhausted into the atriiosphere. In the closed-
cycle system, gas is recirculated continuously through the clarlnel in a closed loop and
the heat input is supplied by a high-temperature heat ex,,harrger.
Most MHD research is focused on open-cycle generation using coal or coal-
derived liquid fuels. Such generators are potentially useful as topping cycles for
conventional electrical generating systems, increasing overall system efficiencies from
the present level of 40 percent to as much as 60 percent. A sinlplified schematic of an
open-cycle MHD generator used as the topping cycle of a combined MHD/steam
generating plant is shown in figure 1.
D ~ J Air
Csner MH~rnr 1 "'All
Magnet
Ai Stick MHO
Prenea ter Output
flack - 9
Cleanup
era >eed I nbotta Coot 2
]njedicn
el
CMagnel
L 11 mvery
(,as to
Ste-
Boiler
Cas 'r
4
0.14
0.2
Belorussia SSR
0.08
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.2
Far East
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
Negl.
Other
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.13
0.113
0.17
0.1
' Including natural gas liquids.
2 Preliminary.
Total
90
130
180
290
110
150
128
Middle East
Egypt
40
40
20
4
3
5
3
Iraq
0
0
80
220
78
108
116
Other
50
90
80
66
29
37
9
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Total
1,920
2,110
2,140
2,380
2,340
2,600
2,970
Other Communist countries
1,010
1,110
1,200
1,350
1,440
1,550
1,680
Eastern Europe
805
895
975
1,100
1,180
1,260
1,370
Asia
30
25
20
20
30
40
40
Cuba
120
130
140
150
155
160
175
Yugoslavia
55
60
65
80
75
90
95
Free World countries
910
1,000
940
1,030
900
1,050
1,290
North America
5
0
10
30
20
15
23
Canada
0
0
0
0
3
5
2
United States
5
0
10
30
17
10
21
Western Europe
760
830
815
880
750
880
1,102
Finland
155
170
170
200
180
175
190
France
50
90
60
105
30
70
117
Italy
205
180
170
175
135
135
240
Netherlands
30
35
50
65
60
60
53
Sweden
95
90
90
65
60
70
55
West Germany
125
120
125
115
125
150
145
Other
100
145
150
155
160
220
302
Near and Middle East
60
60
50
30
30
45
56
Egypt
30
32
30
7
4
5
5
Greece
20
20
18
16
20
38
40
Other
10
8
2
7
6
2
11
Africa
25
30
35
35
23
20
23
Ghana
10
12
13
12
6
3
5
Morrocco
14
17
19
19
13
13
13
Other
1
1
3
4
4
4
5
Asia
60
80
30
55
52
60
65
India
5
10
8
10
20
25
22
Japan
54
66
20
41
25
26
35
Other
1
4
2
4
7
9
8
Latin America
0
0
0
0
25
30
21
Brazil
0
0
0
0
25
30
21
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
5.15
5.46
5.92
6.33
6.79
7.20
7.55
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USSR: Natural Gas Production
Million cm/d
1970 542.3
1971 581.9
1972 604.9
1973 647.5
1974 713:8
1975 792.6
1976 876.0
1977
1st Qtr 962.5
Apr 933.3
May 912.9
Jun 903.3
Jul 900.0
Aug 909.7
Sep 930.0
Oct 977.4
Nov 971.0
Total 542.3 581.9 604.9 647.5 713.8
792.6
878.0
Central Asia 131.7 148.1 162.8 196.0 226.0
260.0'
285.6
Ukrainian SSR 166.8 177.0 184.1 186.6 187.2
188.21
187.7
North Caucasus 104.8 99.1 821 70.8 68.0
65.1
60.03
West Siberia 26.5 26.5 311 45.0 67.7
103.0
131.1
Komi ASSR 17.0 27.5 364 38.2 46.7
50.71
53.6
Azerbaydzhan SSR 15.0 15.9 187 22.9 24.9
27.1 '
30.1
Urals-Voga and other produc-
ing regions in the RSFSR 80.5 87.8 897 88.0 93.3
98.5
127.9
' Revised.
2 Preliminary.
3 Estimate based on average rate of decline during 1970-75.
Exports 9.0 12.5 13.9 18.7 38.5
53.0
70.4
Eastern Europe 6.4 8.6 94 13.3 25.4
31.0
36.7
Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0.8
3.2
6.1
Czechoslovakia 3.7 4.5 53 6.5 5.9
10.1
11.7
East Germany 0 0 0 2.1 7.9
9.1
9.2
Hungary 0 0 0 0 C
1.7
2.7
Poland 2.7 4.1 41 4.7 5.8
6.9
7.0
Western Europe 2.6 3.9 45 5.4 15.1
22.0
.33.7
Austria 2.6 3.9 45 4.4 5.8
5.1
7.6
Finland 0 0 0 0 1.2
2.0
2.4
France 0 0 0 0 C
0
2.7
Italy 0 0 0 0 2.2
6.4
10.1
West Germay 0 0 0 1.0 5.9
8.5
10.9
Imports 9.7 22.3 30.2 31.3 32.7
34.0
.32.2
Afghanistan 7.1 6.9 7.8 7.5 7.8
7.8
6.8
Iran 2.6 15.4 22.4 23.8 24.9
26.2
25.4
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1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
543.0
591.7
621.2
660.1
708.0
773.6
837.8
Production
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Yugoslavia
Consumption'
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Yugoslavia
384 393 404 410 417 423 429
7 6 5 4 3 2 2
4 4 4 3 3 3 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
39 39 40 40 40 40 43
8 8 7 8 11 11 9
268 276 283 286 290 292 294
57 59 64 68 69 74 78
1,225 1,374 1,509 1,782 1,777 1,884 2,016
184 212 222 248 268 248 2592
208 236 256 300 314 327 3532
182 202 259 272 269 282 3052
127 144 162 179 188 218 230
172 192 215 268 262 311 322
198 217 229 261 241 259 2932
155 169 164 254 235 239 255
' Crude oil equivalent. Because of rounding, components may not add to totals shown.
2 Estimated.
27
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 GlAnRW 9ap9A&7A001100040001-7
Thousand b/d
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Crude Oily
Imports
879
1,013
1,171
1,401
1,421
1,551
1,733
USSR
679
800
921
1,044
1,108
1,242
1,355
OPEC
102
117
107
233
295
260
365
Iraq
40
53
28
53
93
125
112
Iran
62
64
71
94
63
72
14
Algeria
0
0
6
0
5
14
0
Libya
0
Negl.
2
0
4
9
13
Kuwait
0
0
0
4
0
15
0
Other
0
0
0
82'
130'
25'
225'
Non-OPEC
98
96
143
124
18
49
13
Belgium
0
0
0
0
6
4
0
West Germany
0
0
0
6
4
0
0
Netherlands
0
0
0
0
2
11
0
Syria
Vegl.
0
7
3
Neegl.
0
0
France
0
7
1
0
0
0
0
Other
98
89
135
115
6
25
13
Petroleum products
Imports
166
153
159
177
180
160
164
Bulgaria
58
51
47
47
48
34
37
Czechoslovakia
22
20
21
25
27
21
25
East Germany
2
4
11
2
2
3
3
Hungary
19
16
14
20
21
19
21
Poland
48
45
47
61
60
6:3
64
Yugoslavia
17
17
19
22
22
20
14
Exports
201
182
220
204
236
24:3
298
Czechoslovakia
15
18
20
13
10
15
17
East Germany
26
20
47
48
58
57
55
Hungary
18
10
13
13
10
11
11
Poland
26
21
34
27
24
32
54
Romania
107
107
102
99
129
124
157
Yugoslavia
9
6
4
4
5
4
4
Estimated.
2 Crude oil exports are negligible.
Including data that cannot be distributed by country of origin.
Eastern Europe: Natural Gas Production and Consumption
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Production
100.09
110.27
121.00
132.76
137.03
144.04
155.89
Bulgaria
1.30
0.90
0.60
0.61
0.49
0.30
0.10
Czechoslovakia
3.30
3.35
3.19
2.85
2.67
2.55
2.69
East Germany
3.38
7.82
13.85
19.21
21.18
19.92
19.00 '
Hungary
9.50
10.15
11.26
13.21
13.96
14.20
1,666
Poland
14.20
14.75
15.95
16.51
15.72
16.34
18 35
Romania
65.73
70.15
72.75
76.73
79.05
86.49
94.36'
Yugoslavia
2.68
3.15
3.40
3.64
3.96
4.24
4.73
Consumption
106.71
118.80
130.09
145.88
160.26
175.04 '
193.521
Bulgaria
1.30
0.90
0.60
0.61
1.33
3.55
6.21
Czechoslovakia
6.78
7.56
8.23
9.11
11.49
12.92
15.42
East Germany
3.82
8.12
13.85
21.37
28.96
28.76 '
28.211
Hungary
10.05
10.72
11.81
13.76
14.51
16.41
19.97 '
Poland
16.95
18.83
20.06
21.19
21.52
23.22
25.27
Romania
65.18
69.60
72.20
76.20
78.49
85.94 '
85.39 '
Yugoslavia
2.63
3.07
3.34
3.64
3.96
4.24
4.73
28
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 Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
Imports
7.46
9.50
10.02
13.92
23.89
31.65'
38.28
Bulgaria
0
0
0
0
0.84
3.25
6.11
Czechoslovakia
3.72
4.55
5.36
6.53
8.92
10.47
12.73
East Germany
0.44
0.30
Negl.
2.16
7.78
8.84
9.21
Hungary
0.55
0.57
0.55
0.55
0.55
2.21
3.31
Poland
2.75
4.08
4.11
4.68
5.80
6.88
6.92
Exports
0.84
0.97
0.93
0.80
.0.66
0.65'
0.651
Czechoslovakia
0.24
0.34
0.32
0.27
0.10
0.10
0.10'
Romania
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.53
0.56
0.551
0.551
Yugoslavia
0.05
0.08
0.06
Negl.
0
0
0
Crude Oil Production
1,090
1,310
1,490
1,670
Crude Oil Consumption
920
1,030
1,300
1,500
Oil Exports'
40
110
210
190
Japan
19.4
78.1
157.6
121.2
Philippines
0
2.1
8.3
11.3
Thailand
0.4
0.8
1.1
5.9
Hong Kong
0.8
6.6
13.1
12.3
Other countries S
20
20
30
40
' Exports include both crude oil and petroleum. products. Data are rounded to
the nearest five thousand barrels.
2 Rough estimate of sales to North Korea, Romania, and Vietnam. Sales to North
Korea jumped sharply beginning in 1975 when a pipeline between PRC and North
Korea was completed.
29
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SECRET
STAFF .?92253Z DIRECTOR 147261
25X1A
. ------------- ?--- ?---- ?------w..----.------I--------ar---ter-----------------
WNINTEL 25X1A
-DIRECTOR 147261,
FULLUWI NU SAN1I1LtU UVtKV1tIN 1-RUM UtK'S INTEKNAIIUNAL tNEKGY
BIWEEKLY REVIEW ENDING 29 DECEMBER 1977-IS APPROVED FOR PASSING
AT SECRET LEVEL.
N EFFORT FIS ALREADY UNDER WAY.IN OPEC FOR A PRICE IN-
CREASE EARLY IN 1978. SPEARHEADING THE MOVE IS VENEZUELAN
PRESIDENT PEREZ, 4HO IS CONCERNED ABOUT HIS PARTY'S CHANCES IN
NEXT FALL'S ELECTIONS AND WANTS TO COMPENSATE FOR FAILING TO
FULLY CAPITALIZE ON HOSTING THE CARACAS MEETING. HE IS CALLING
FOR A SPECIAL MEETING TO RAISE PRICES BEFORE THE CARTEL'S NEXT
SCHEDULED MINISTERIAL SESSION IN JUNE 1978. BESIDES SEEKING AN
IMMEDIATE INCREASE, PEREZ IS ADVOCATING ADOPTION OF A FORMULA
THAT WILL AUTOMATICALLY RAISE CRUDE OIL PRICES IN THE FUTURE.
2. EXTRAORDINARY MINISTERIAL MEETINGS ARE NOT UNUSUAL IN OPEC.
SEVERAL HAVE TEEN HELD SINCE 1973; THE LAST WAS IN APRIL 1976 IN
GENEVA TO DISCUSS OIL PRICES. SUPPORT FOR ONE NOW I.S MOST LIKELY
TO COME FROM THOSE COUNTRIES THAT ARGUED FOR A PRICE RISE AT
CARACAS: IRAQ, LIBYA, ALGERIA, AND NIGERIA. SAUDI ARABIA AND
IRAN ARE SATISFIED NITH THE RESULTS AT CARACAS, NHERE THEY
SUCCESSFULLY ENGINEERED A PRICE FREEZE WITH MINIMAL FRICTION AMONG
CARTEL MEMBERS.
3. RIYADH..AND TEHRAN ARE ON PUBLIC RECORD AS ADVOCATING A
FREEZE FOR ALL OF 1978. THEY WILL LOOK TO THE MARKET AS AN IN-
DICATOR OF THE INTENSITY OF PRESSURE THEY CAN EXPECT WITHIN OPEC.
FOR A PRICE RISE.
4. TO CHARACTERIZE THE CURRENT MARKET AS 'SOFT" IS MIS-
LEADING; OPEC IS IN A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER POSITION THAN NO
YEARS AGO, FOR EXAMPLE. IN 1975, DEMAND FOR OPEC CRUDE AS ABOUT
27 MILLION B/D, SEVERAL MILLION B/D BELOW OPEC PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY.
NOW DEMAND FOR OPEC OIL IS 31 MILLION B/D. MOREOVER, WE HAVE .
RECENTLY LOWERED OUR ESTIMATES OF OPEC PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY TO 33
MILLION B/D. THE NEW FIGURE REFLECTS BOTH PRODUCTION CEILING
AND TECHNICAL CONSTRAINTS IN SEVERAL OPEC COUNTRIES. WE WILL
ORIG: ASA/D/OER
E1,2.3, IMPDET,NNINTEL.>
PUBLISH A REVISED OPEC OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TABLE IN THE 11
JANUARY 1978 ISSUE. (SECRET)
Appr~~r~~or
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Rm. l',6, Suit:..an(ZC ,
2cys) Col. (',I. Terlou~.v,
AF/IN(
c(n~~c.~ A 4B136
Mr, Hai ]ow 7f. Munson
CNO/Sy~ Lems i,h Iysi s
OP 96C:-
Room 4684, Pentagon
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 41
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7O The Honorable W. Michael Blumenthal
Secretary
Department of the Treasury
x,77/ The Honorable Robert Carswell
Deputy Secretary
Department of the Treasury
7t2 The Honorable Anthony M. Solomon
Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs
Department of the Treasury
Mr. Richard W. Fisher
Special Assistant to
Under Secretary for Monetary Affairs
Department of the Treasury
0 91`he Honorable C. Fred Bergsten
Assistant Secretary
International Affairs
Department of the Treasury
75 The Honorable Damiel H. Brill
Assistant Secretary
Economic Policy
Department of the Treasury
Gary Hufbauer
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Trade & Investment Policy
Department of the Treasury
7 7 Ms. Majorey E. Searing
Director
Office of East-West Economic Policy
Department of the Treasury
':78 Deputy Assistant Secretary
International Economic Research
Department of the Treasury
c)75 Mr. Arnold Nachmanoff
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Developina Nations Finance
Department of the Treasury
LSD Mr. David C. Maslin
International Economist
Office of Developing Nations Finance
Department of the Treasury
I Mr. F. Lisle Widman
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
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Department of the Treasury
_14_
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Mr. David Pritchett
Director
Office of International Energy Policy
Department of the Treasury
Mr. John Borkman,
Office of the Assistant Secretary
(Economic Affairs)
Department of the Treasury
C 4 q Mr. J. Foster Collins
Special Assistant to
Secretary for National Security
Department of the Treasury
a ,8~s. Fran Lawson
Office of Intelligence Support
Department of the Treasury
a?~-' Mr. Lewis Bowden
Deputy to the Assistant Secretary
Saudi Arabian Affairs
Department of the Treasury
Mr. Charles Schotta
Di rec for
Office of International Energy Policy
Department of the Treasury
g ` Mr. Donald Syvrud
Director
Office of International Monetary Affairs
Department of the Treasury
c Director
Office of Bilateral Development
Department of the Treasury
c 9D Mr. Ralph Hayn
Office of Bilateral Development
Department of the Treasury
c9/Mr. Donald Curtis
Director
Office of Balance of Payments
Department of the Treasury
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Department of the Treasury
c 9 3 Mrs. Helen Junz
Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Commodities &Natural Resources
Department of the Treasury
c 9 Mr. Peter Bridges
Executive Secretariat
Department of the Treasury
Cj S Mr. Kevin Broderick
Office of Executive Secretariat
Department of the Treasury
Mr. David S. Currl
Office of International Banking
Room 5325
Department of the Treasury
c 9-7 Mr. Del I Perry
Director
Office of Legislative Regularty Energy Analysis
Department of the Treasury
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Dept. of Commerce
cl o Room 3520
1- The Honorable Juanita M. Kreps
Secretary of Commerce
1- The Honorable Sidney Harman
Under Secretary of Commerce-Designate
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Asst. Secretary for Policy-Designate
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General Counsel-Designate
1-
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1- Mr. S. Stanley Katz
Deputy Asst. Secretary
Bureau of International Economic
Policy and Research
1- Mr. Edward Miller
Acting Deputy Secretary for
Energy & Strategic Resources Policy
1- The Honorable Robert J. Blackwell
Asst. Secretary for Maritime Affairs
3 o7 Mr. Robert E. Shepherd
Deputy Asst. Secretary
Bureau of Resources and Trade Assistance
Dept. of Commerce
3v 9
Mr. Robert G. Shaw
Deputy Asst. Secretary
Bureau of International Commerce
Dept. of Commerce
aJ Director, Office of East-West Country Affairs
DIBA-Dept. of Commerce
Room 4814-A
31O Mrs. Lucy Falcone , Director
Office of Policy Development
Office of the Secretary, Dept. of Commerce
Mrs. Hertha Heiss
Chief, USSR Division
Office of East-West Trade Development
Bureau of East-West Trade, Room 4323
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Chief, Energy Resources Division
Department of Commerce
.3i3
Mr. Frank Vargo
Director
Office of Economic Research,DIBA
Department of Commerce
Room 4824
l r// Ms . Wendy Ham, imes
Project Manager
Major Export Products Division
BIC Department of Commerce
Room 3414
3/S Mrs. Francis L. Hall
Director
International Trade Analysis Staff
DIBA-Department of Commerce
Room 5618
3" Mr. Louis J. Moczar
Balance of Paymentd Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
1401 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
Room 408
Mr. Cherie Laustaunau
Commerce Action Group for the Near East
Room 3015
Department of Commerce
(2 cys)3/S/ 3/' Mr. Steven V. Dunaway
Balance of Payments Division
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Room 408
1401 K Street, N.W.
Mr. Maurice Ktgon
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Room 3203
Mr. Richard Garitz
Acting Director
Office of International Marketing
DIBA-Department of Commerce
Room 4015-B
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a Mr. Eric Forman
Maritime Administration
Department of Commerce
(2 cys) 3 3, 'COP/Economics Adviser
United States Information Agency
(5 cys) Energy Research & Development Administration
Division of International Security Affairs
_. y Suite 5221, Room. 30
20 Mass. Ave.,N.W.
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 Iff-
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FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
(2 cys) J .3/YMr. Edwin M. Truman
Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
(2 cys) '/X,3/ 7 Mr , John Reynolds
Counselor to the Director
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
(2 cys )jt/S,3y~ Mr. Samuel Pizer, Adviser
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
2 cys)350, 3. /
Mrs. Cynthia Sutton
Division of International Finance
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
~~-Mr. Sam Y. Cross
U.S. Executive Director
International Monetary Fund
J Dr. Raymond J. Albright
Vice President for Europe & Canada
Export-Import of the U.S.
Roan 1105
811 Vermont Ave.,N.W.
3`-1/ Mr. James C. Cruse
Vice President for Policy Analysis
Roan 1203
Export-Import of the U.S.
811 Vermont Ave.,N.W.
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53 The Honorable Dale Hathaway
Assistant Secretary for
International Affairs and Cam odity Programs
Department of Agriculture
_356 Mr. Howard W. Hjort
Director
Economic Policy Analysis & Budget
Department of Agriculture
3S7 Mr. Thomas Hughes
Administrator
Foreign Agricultural Service
Department of Agriculture
3 S-D Mr. Brice Meeker
Assistant Administrator
Foreign Corm odity Analysis
FoXe~gn Agriculture Service
Mr. Richard. Dunhmsn~
Chairman
Federal Power Comrnissio `1,j
Attn : / _ ('-enure [7i Sri an
Room 3106
941 N. Capitol Street, NE
C Do--VIIIJO-el~
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(4 cys)
', o -.3 '~3
Ms. Sylvia Posner
Roan 5039
Main Interior Bldg.
18th & C Street
Washington, D.C.
1- Assistant Secretary for Energy & Minerals
Department of the Interior
1- Mr. Carl H. Cotterill
Bureau of the Mines
Department of the Interior
an 727, Columbia Plaza
2401 E Street, N.W.
1- Mr. David A. Page
Special Assistant
Secretary for Energy
Department of Interior
Mrs. Barbara Burns
D/Office of International Affairs
Department of the Interior
Room 5312
18th & C Streets, N.W.
3' (/ Mr. Charles Peters,Director
Strategic Warning Staff
Rocco 1C925, Pentagon
3 (o Mr. John Gersic
Bicentennial Bldg. Room 661
U. S. International Trade Ccnnission
701 E Street, N.W.
Department of Justice
Office of Management & Finance
Security Programs Section
Room 6531
Main Justice Bldg.
For: Richard Levine
Anti-Trust Division
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LL /O 1) 77 - o 6
SENDER WILL CHECK CLASSIFIC iTION OP AND BOTTOM
UNCLASSIFIED CONIFIDENI'IAL SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
I
SA/ER
2
Room 4G-32
3
4
PPG/R&D
5
Room 7G-07
6
Hqs.
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
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Please indicate the ite
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NFIDENTIAL
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/1L`)7--
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 A._._.__..__i rf_i_ __ - nnnw inw ins - PSIA r~r~r>nr~nnw~~nnnwwnnn wnnnw ~.J I ~~ `} ~
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SECRET
GTORN-NOCONTRA CT-OR CON
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Page
. I
A Comment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. 3
USSR.: West Siberian Oil Reserves . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . ...
4
USSR-ItuU: Renegotiated Gas Prices . . . . .' . . . . . . . . .
6
USSR Set To Sign Gas Lift Contracts . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7
Caned a: Large Alberta Oil Find
8
Cain?~~la: Nixed Prospects for Nonconven;ional
Crude Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
[C Coal Industry Remains in the Doldruius . . . . . . . . . .
15
Foreign MI) in ~Iagnetohydrodyna-nlic
Power Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
29 December 1977 SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
 ppre OF I FOTi1VfFl I Iut~FRU BULL f~&~ fM~N~~U INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and II of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (black x 1724 redJ
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CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Interpol Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
MI Iitory China
Science & Technology Other For East
Geography Near Eost/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Lone Amorica
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: 7 e N/A1/te McMker CauN?~r~es oz
TO BE COMPLETED BY R 3 E
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121.121
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
 PUBLI A 10 'oNOEM, ~I~~`~9WED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Com onents. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
SHADED parts of section I and 11 of this form. Please type or print legibly. Questions should be directed to A/Comp/R&E Room
3E63 x 7871 (block) x 1724 (red)
SECTION I
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NAME AND TELEPHONE NUMBER OF ANALYST 25X1A
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CARD
TYPE SURVEY NO. DATE PUBLISHED PUBLICATION NUMBER FOR CRG ONLY
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(13-18) -
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69 NSA
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KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTION(9)-KIQ
DOCUMENT TYPE (t5-16)
11
12
13
14
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11 IH
15 TM
53 EIW
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41 SID
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2ND K100
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17 18
19
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CLASSIFICATION:
CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science 8 Technology Other Far East
Geography Near Eost/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES.
C1iM1`~ r {~
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
CONTROL NO.
(21.22)
TOPIC
(23.24)
AREA
(25-28)
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Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
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 SECRET
Approved For Release 2001 1 4 IgAWRW9"R i4 RQI*0001-7
USE OF INFORMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGRAMS IN FINISHED INTELLIGENCE
GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Components. This is a machine-
supported system and information must be gathered in a formatted fashion. Therefore, each analyst will complete the NON-
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3E63 x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red).
SECTION I 25X1A
NAME AND TELEPHONE NUMBER OF ANALYST
CARD1 XXAXXXXXX XXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX XXXXX XXXXXX XX!
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{M-,MO
YR
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(24-80)
24
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28 ORPA
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40 DIA
60 STATE
59 NSA
JOINT OFFICE (specify):
( - -)
KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTION(S)-KIQ
DOCUMENT TYPE 115-16)
11
12
13
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2NO KIQ #
08 R
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17 18 1 19
20
CLASSIFICATION:
CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
X Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science clmoiogy Other For East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES:
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
CONTROL NO.
(21.22)
TOPIC
123.24)
AREA
(25.28)
prave-For-Release -20
1/04/27: CIA-RDP79BO0437A004
00040001--7-'
FORM
5.77
3492 11'a.Lr.TC n.1v1.u7 Ea,rlaNs
SECRET
 25X1 B
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
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 USE OF INFOIIMATION FROM COLLECTION PROGR `:.".S IN FINISHED HT[ELL!GENCE
PUBLICATiOI, SOURCE SURVEY
Rating forms will be completed for each finished, inteliigencc publics"ion prepured by D.L I/Corrponents. This is a ,r,aciinre-
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SHADED parts of section I and It of this form. Please i pe or print legibly. Questions should oe c'.irected to A/Comp/R&E Rc m
3E63 x 7871 (black
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Internal Politics
International Relations
Economics
Military
Science & Tedinolcgy
Geography
USSR
Eastern Europe
'Aestern Europe
C)ina
Other F_r East
Near Ecs t N.. Africa
South Asia
Africa
Latin America
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
SECTION I
F At', ALY3iI
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 25X1 B
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
 GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
Rating, forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Com ponents. This is a machine-
A t )1J TrJS a j {~~f ~f {, (~jt w complete the NON-
SITYIDEDp artsPof~ er section I and 11 of this form. leaseettYP P 9 Yype or print le ib y . ues o ns shauTdbeedireciePo A/Comp/R&E Room
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XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
CARD I XXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXX
CARD
TYPE
0
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SURVEY NO.
t3-fl(
DATE PUBLISHEDi PUBLICATION NUMBER
19.121 (13.23)
FOR GAG ONLY
CIS PUBLICATION OA-''E
(13-181
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I MO YR MO DAY R
PUBLICATION TITLE
(24.80)
24
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OFFICE (9-10)
TYPE
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02 DER
04 OGCR
07051
27 CRG
(1-2)
(3-8)
03 OSR
06 OCR
08 OWl
26 ORPA
30 01A
40 DIA
60 STATE
59 NSA
2
I
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JOINT OFFICE (specify):
1 - - I
KEY INTCLLIGENCE QUE9TION(SI-KIQ
DOCUMENT TYPE 116.161
11 12 13 14
041M
11 IH
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53 EIW
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CLASSIFICATION:
,SecR,GT
CLASSIFICATION CONTROL
No FO& D a ,x,
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
canomics Western Europe
Military China
Science & Technology Other For East
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: J.,
TO BE COMPLETED BY R i E
CONTROL NO.
121.221
TOPIC
123.24)
AREA
16.28)
kpproved For Release 2001/_
4/27 CIA-RD P7_ S)94 7A99
1000.40001-7
 25X1 B
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
 25X1A
VCI`FRML IIIJInvL.I IVIVJ
Rgtinq forms will be completed for each finished intelligence publication prepared by DDI/Cam ponents. This is a machine-
d emr 44qqd j+nf r ti t~ st( hpr ~,~ 6j~, t ill complete the NON-
t$ 0 p risofse one an vo th is form, Plea e, type or print legibly. Questionns should be dl ed to A/Comp/R&E Room
'3E6'5 --x 7871 (black) x 1724 (red),
SECTION I
r+AME AND TELEPHONE NUMB
'Apo I XXXXXXXXXXXXx xxxxxxxxxxx.x xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CAUD SURVEY NO DATE PUBLISHEDI PUBLICATION NUMBER FOR CRG ONLY
r, PE CIB PUBLICATION DATE
11 21 13?B, (9.121 (13.231 113.161
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CARD OFFICE (9.101
TYPE SURVEY NO. 02 OCR Ol OGCR 07 OSI 27 CRG
(1-2) 13.61 03 OSR 06 OCR 08 OWI 20 ORPA
2
30 OIA
40 CIA
60 STATE
59 NSA
JOINT OFF ICE (specify):
I--I
.n I.TELL1GCNCE QVESTI0N(Sl-KIO
DOCUMENT TYPE (16.161
11 12
13
14
04 IM
I I IH
15 TM
63 EI W
f
_
05 M
12 IB
32 NID
60 SURVEYOR
I
07 IR
13 RP
41 SID
61 WIS
isr KIQ8
'2NU KIQB
06 R
14 BR
51 IOD
17 1e 19
20
CLASSIFICATION:
SL~RE; "f
CLASSIFICATION CONTROLS:
,l/o FOR 11J
TOPICAL CATEGORY
GEOGRAPHIC AREA CATEGORY
Internal Politics - USSR
International Relations Eastern Europe
Economics Western Europe
Military China
Science & Technology Other For Cost
Geography Near East/N. Africa
Biography South Asia
H Africa
Latin America
LIST SPECIFIC COUNTRIES: U S5,,,
TO BE COMPLETED BY R & E
CONTROL NO.
(21.22)
TOPIC
(23.24)
AREA
125-281
proved-For-Release -2001
0412-7-:-CIA=RDPZ9BOO-45ZA0.
1100040001-7
 25X1 B
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7
Approved For Release 2001/04/27 : CIA-RDP79B00457AO01100040001-7