EAST EUROPE BRANCH NOTES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00864A001400010108-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2006
• Sequence Number: 108
• Publication Date: February 6, 1974
• Content Type: NOTES

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CONFIDENTIAL
#8 EAST EUROPE BRANCH NOTES 6 February 1974
HUNGARY
On Force Reductions
The Warsaw Pact countries remain determined not to in-
clude Hungary in the zone of European force reductions unless NATO
includes Italy, according to a Hungarian foreign ministry
official. Reviewing other aspects of force reductions, the
Hungarian repeated the current stand line: national force
cuts (especially in West Germany) are as important as reductions
in stationed forces; NATO air and nuclear forces must be
included; there is no need for on-site inspection.
The Hungarian rejected as "ridiculous" the rumors that
Moscowi.sshipping additional weapons to Hungary for possible
25X1 repositioning of troops from the Central European zone.
The Embassy says that the rumors of increased Soviet presence
in Hungary are being fed largely by the Romanians.
On CSCE
The same official says that the most important Communist
goal at CSCE is to insure the "inviolability of frontiers."
With an eye towards West Germany, the Hungarian said that
any language allowing for changes by "peaceful methods"
would be unacceptable. This view is erroneous. The Romanians
are also keenly interested in "peaceful changes" of borders.
The r pokecman acknowlee.gea. that the r7,7=unist pia-. '.a'
reacted too negatively to "freer movement", and cln:med that
an "effort is being made" to show a more positive attitude.
The official was vague on specifics, but mentioned the
possibility of live television debates, steps to facilitate
tourism, and increases in the exchange of "objective and non-
inflammatory" information. The Hungarian claimed that Budapest
was more prepared (than the GDR and USSR) for increased
cultural and information exchanges, but added that the "convoy"
can travel only as fast as its "slowest components."
State Dept. review completed
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The Embassy reports that the recent visit of East German
Premier Sindermann appeared to be hastily prepared and speculates
that Pankow may have wanted to counteract the West German
sojourn of the Hungarian Foreign Trade Minister. Several
diplomatic observers in Budapest were struck by the perfunctory
nature of the visit. The Embassy concludes that while the
GDR is Hungary's second most important trading partner, there
still is little warmth in this business relationship.
Both Pankow and Budapest would have their own reasons for
wanting to stress bilateral ties while Hungarian-West German
relations are on the upswing. The East Germans want to keep
abreast of developments, and the Hungarians want to give the
appearance of coordinating moves towards the West with their
allies. On balance, however, the Hungarians probably were
more of a moving force for the Sindermann visit, fearing the
East Germans could gain the tactical advantage by acting as
an aggrieved party in this trian le.
YUGOSLAVIA
Apparent Minic Heart Attack Postpones Swedish Visit
According to Swedish diplomats in Belgrade, Foreign
Secretary Minic suffered a heart attack that forced his early
return from India and a postponement of the Swedish Foreign
Minister's visit to Yugoslavia that was slated to begin on
February 8. Minis will reportedly be hospitalized for another
10-14 days and then will rest at home for two more weeks.
The Foreign Secretariat answered US embassy queries by noting
Cliurch, State, and Rome: The Obtuse Triangle
Archbishop Casaroli, the Vatican's de facto foreign
minister, arrived in Warsaw on February 4 -for talks aimed at
forging formal diplomatic ties.
Thus far, Casaroli and his Polish interlocutors have exchange;:]
public compliments, but otherwise have dodged reporters'
questions on the prospects for progress in relations, probably
with good reason. The Vatican is committed to clearing any
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agreement with the Polish Church, and the Church is currently
at war with the state. Cardinal Wyszynski, for example, has
charged that the government's pending education reform bill
will effectively deny Polish youth the right to a religious
education. Moreover, the case of Piotr Zabielski, the priest
arrested for holding Mass in his own home, continues to stir
hard feelings. By law, the state appears to have been within
its rights. in apprehending the priest. His subsequent commit-
25X1 ment to a mental hospital has, however, left authorities open
to the charge of emulating Soviet intimidation tactics.
The Great Escape
A late January pleasure cruise of the Stefan Batory
has turned into a fiasco for the Gierek regime At.last count,
81 of the 325 passengers--mostly from the "favored" working
class---had defected during stops at Western ports--64 in Hamburg,
12 in Copenhagen, and 5 in Oslo. While it is possible that
some simply failed to note the correct sailing time, it seems
obvious..that most deliberately jumped ship. A Hamburg city
official, in a Solomon-like decision, has announced that none
of the refugees has a valid reason for political asylum, and
yet none will be sent back. Thus far, Warsaw is covering its
embarrassment with a thick blanket of silence. A Polish
diplomat in Bonn doubts that his government will push the
issue even in private, and a German foreign office specialist
has expressed the view that the incident will have no impact
The West Makes Economic Waves
A Prague radio broadcast admits that "the crisis of the
capitalist currency system and its effects on international
relations are unpleasant for our economy too." It points out
that the rise in prices in the West makes travel more expensive
for Czechoslovak citizens. A much heavier burden, says the
broadcast, is the sharp increase in the price of raw materials
and of imported engineering equipment. To meet these difficulties,
Czechoslovakia must increase the price of its exports to the
West and make the best use of its expensive imported raw
materials and machinery. 25X1
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BULGARIA
Election Statistics
Bulgarians elected about 52,000 representatives to
provincial, city and village Peoples' Councils in mid-
January nationwide elections. Of these, 51% are members of
the Communist party, 18% are from the Nation Agricultural Union,
16% from the Dimitrov Communist Youth Union (Komsomol) and
15% are without party affiliation. The latter group increased
from 9% since the last local elections in 1971. The precentage
of women candidates also rose from 26% in 1971 to 36% this year.
Although a new 1973 electoral law in theory permits
multiple candidates to stand for these offices, this approach
was not followed during the elections. In some small rural,
districts or enterprises, however, multiple choice was presumably
allowed, especially among the non-Party contingent.
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