Western Pacific and Indian Ocean Base Study: analyses for

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00972A000100180019-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 22, 1998
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: October 30, 1967
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP791300072A000100180019-2
r ov'a et interest
are eaeuti d rat
ly to the e of Ch
rablo power to
as.a Pacific and prob*b
the future. Moreover, the
apply a titan
S me of the non-Communist n
orvarded a
Novae. r . As W'r. . i tb n
not now ''la to comment on
graph three of your t oran
rcpt traffic in t
x out the Oft ?ie
your 13 to A m woran .
pia. sing to deliver our
is to you by 15
to you, we do
question--in pa 'a-
co.3 erni1n Indian
70-1980 ricer..
Command at Suitia d
his question, pi e
or
y ignored,
aatly and Usually
The USSR is, after al
Od with it the
oven :,
is in a Position
ical le ers a in
is of the Pacific. The
G iit'rP i
 Approved For Release 2000/08/
Bowieets re,
of a worl d
Indian Oct and the beep
d will contis to do so *nd the Soviets have b
building up their influence I in some of these stat
in short, in your review of these scenarios, deeper
consid*rat,toa of the Soviet interest and power position
is the 'i stern Pacific and ;ndtan Ocean *"as would
sees to is order.
jggj"10 A.
3, to this "pessimistic" ace
that China "remains active"
National Liberation. One i
ire effective" is place Of
out China purges this poi
which has not been notably tfective. It is also said
that China and the USSR wig.; undertake separate but
parallel action to bring Africa and Asia under ftnounist
rule. this lean that this will be accsoaplisshod by
military action, I.e., aili
in the relevance of all the
bas for the UK and avails
under South" at AsU the r
(April
last mil?
Poo* of the Vietnam
is s no hope that ai th
a moderating influence car
dernir.ed *Inc* the
add. Further, there
or Moscow will exercise
4. Under 'Thailasa there is reference to Insur
Are thaw C hineete they come by way of Laos or
gar"? The ethnic makeup o any insurgent group would
have a lot to do with Its e - feectiveuel sa . In a ". i-
aAstic" scenario, Japan could be dealt with in far less
**operative light t is done heave.
assumed
in promotin wars of
inclined to suggest "is
"remains active." At pre-
cy largely by propaaganda,.
ary conquest? If not, what
subsequent discussion of
ility? in the same scenar
feereence to "present pace
was this scenario written
Approved For Release 2000/08129 : CIAO 60b972A000100180019-2
 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA= 2A000100180019-2
result opposite of that escribed. " aictm^e
keep India non-aligned would likely to
The following sentence regarding what the
The posited pressure India would likely
d China would do is i ardlf pressure. suggests
"
"
W au of
pressure
tjhe word "tactics" or '"efforts"
ted. That is meant by "pursuing a diplomatic
tegy oriented toward development of Islamic resistance
ism?" It in unlik Ily that religion will be more
'actor than it is now. I would be both optimistic and
um"listiel, in any case, t suppose that Pakistan will
worry more about Communism than about India and Kashmir.
7. :inland China ban Iy'et to pursue an expansionist
policy, and "begins #1 might sore accurately be sub
d for "continues."
Reference in made to Indian assistance to
"African liberation movement." The use of this term Is as
the prospect of Indian assistance to it.
in this area see s hat oversimplified.
_-_ L
In feral, the dirject, and apparently ci
hip between a less ggressive China and a reduced
10. P
discussion
anted or eaco zraged?
vee your p ple call on us for any
points ra ed above.
BRUCE C. CL E
Director
tegic Research
Distribution:
Orig. and 1 --~ Addressee
I -- DDI
I --- D/OCI Atr ;,
-- D/OSR
D/OSR:BCClarke;ir x7111
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIAO