Dear Bob;

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79B00972A000100190015-5
Release Decision: 
RIFPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
2
Document Creation Date: 
December 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 24, 1998
Sequence Number: 
15
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 26, 1963
Content Type: 
LETTER
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79B00972A000100190015-5.pdf133.63 KB
Body: 
Approved For Release 2000/08/29 C1A 79B00972A000100190015-5 DRAFT CO Q 2 6 FEB 1963 Your letter concerning the intelligence estimates on Soviet ground forces raises some very serious points about their relia- bility, consistency and ranges of uncertainty. I agree that we need a new and thorough study to evaluate all available information and to produce estimates which better reflect the ranges of uncer- tainty concerning the aspects of Soviet ground forces specified in your letter. I understand that you have sent a memorandum to the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff requesting much the same type of study; this was forwarded to DIA for implementation. I have discussed this matter with General Carroll and General Collins, and we propose that the two studies be merged. A member of my staff has discussed this proposal with Dr. Enthoven of your office who has agreed in principle. If you agree, we propose to handle the problem as follows: 1. Establish a'CIA/DIA task force under CIA direction, 2. This task force will review all pertinent evidence and prepare a thorough and objective study on. manpower, equipment, and the qualitative aspects of Soviet ground forces. I plan to ask the Board of National Estimates to review this study, and of course General Carroll and I will review it. 3. Wherever possible, the ranges of uncertainty will be treated explicitly according to the definitiveness and the reliability of the evidence. 4. A preliminary report will be forwarded to you in July, and at this point we will decide on the type of long run program that will best serve to improve our estimates in this field. We would like to take advantage of your offer of assistance. The participation of one or two qualified people from your staff as observers could aid us in interpreting your requirements. for information and in obtaining US cost data for comparative purposes. They could also help you in evaluating the results of the study. Assuming that the arrangements outlined above meet with your approval, General Carroll and I will initiate the study. Please nominate one or two members of your staff as observers for this project. Approved For Release 2000/08129 .CIA RI'79B00972A000100190015-5 Approved For Release00/08/29 : C DP79B00972A0100190015-5 I would like to comment on some of the substantive statements in your letter. In evaluating Soviet military forces there is the danger of inferring that the Soviets have the same doctrine on organization and employment of forces as the US. Even in 1960, the combat tasks envisioned by the US and the USSR for their ground divisions resulted in different organizational and deployment postures; recent changes appear to have increased these differences. For example, Soviet divisional strengths are far below those of either the US pentomic or ROAD divisions. It is now estimated that there are about half as many men in a typical combat ready Soviet tank division as there are in a typical US armored division. Other significant differences exist in procurement policy, logistic support, and mobilization concepts. In reply to your request for information on how.the Soviets are allocating their military expenditures, I have attached to this letter a recent CIA study prepared in support of NIE 11-4+-63 which is currently in process. This study includes estimates of expenditures by :mission and category in terms which are as comparable to those of the US as Soviet organization and data limitations permit. There is also an extensive. section on the similarities and differences in the scope of US accounts and those used in the study. The study covers the period 1958 through 1967; however, the estimates for the future have a very wide range of uncertainty. The Agency has made similar studies annually for more than five years, and although the full details of such studies have not been included in National. Intelli- gence Estimates, they have been used to assess the economic feasibility of estimated Soviet military programs. It was the long history of experience in this field which permitted the Agency to contribute the "costing" aspect of the work of the CIA-DIA Joint Analysis Group mentioned in your letter. Furthermore, another Estimate (NIE 11-5-63), currently in process, will examine the problems facing the Soviet economy including the broader aspects of military and space programs. Sincerely, Honorable Robert S. McNamara Secretary of Defense Washington 25, D. C. Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79B00972A000100190015-5 ~~r