Recommendation for Studying the Significance of Organizational Behavior in the Soviet Military Establishment

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00972A000100410015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 1998
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: September 5, 1969
• Content Type: MF

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5 September 1969
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Strategic Research
SUBJECT Recommendation for Studying the
Significance of Organizational
Behavior in the Soviet Military
Establishment
25X1A5a1
1. I have reviewed the various suggestions made
by and his consultants on ways OSR might
better utilize organization theory to understand and
predict Soviet military activities and programs. The
suggestions include essentially three alternative
approaches:
a. Organize a separate experimental group
within OSR to study the problem and to develop a
mode of analysis. I recommend against this approach.
it is one which would be costly in terms of present
production and would create duplication of effort
on those aspects of Soviet activities the experi-
mental group selected for study.
b. Recruit new people with the appropriate
academic background or send two or more top analysts
to full time training. We can, of course, be on
the lookout for new recruits, but they would need
time to develop as intelligence analysts. The pay-
off for full time external training would also
entail a long delay.
c. Develop an in-house part-time training
program for selected analysts with the aid of
consultants. On balance, this is the most attrac-
tive alternative. It would permit the focus of
study on pressing analytical problems of the
moment--with all the source materials we have
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available. The training could be spread over a
greater number of analysts for a broader potential
payoff and greater cross-fertilization of ideas.
2. I recommend the seminar program proposed by
25X1A5a1 as one which offers
a mechanism by which OSR can make a definite and
reasonable commitment to this area of analysis and at
the same time gain the practical experience necessary
for evaluating its potential. We have several analysts
in OSR who have formally studied at least some aspects
of organization theory at, the graduate level, but we
do not have anyone now capable of carrying on high
quality, independent research. Any effort we might
make would require some type of continuing, outside,
professional assistance.
25X1A5a1
3. Initial enrollment might include about 10-12
senior analysts--for about a half day per week--probably
one analyst from each branch in the research divisions,
except for the China branches. It would probably be
best to concentrate on the Soviet military organi-
zations during the initial program. The seminar pro-
posal is discussed in more detail in the attachment.
4. I recommend also that a definite commitment
be made to a pilot research project at the same time.
The Military-Economic Planning Branch included such a
project--an organizational study of Soviet Air Defense
Forces (PVO)--in its fiscal 1970 research program.
This project--which would require joint work with the
Defensive Missiles Branch--is one suggested by -25X1A5a1
and Ivan Selin.
25X1A9a
Attachment:
a/s
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