Field test Number 47

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00972A000100510006-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: July 7, 1969
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Re e8ERqRR~/4 (qP~ PTtqW2A l0006-9
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
CIA No. 1186
7 July 1969
MEMORANDUM FOR: Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
ATTENTION Col. D. A. York
SUBJECT Field Test Number 47
1. The DM Draft of the FT-47 Test Plan has been
reviewed as requested by your memorandum of 20 June
1969. The overall purpose and the general objectives
appear worthwhile. The detailed plan, however, particu-
larly in Phase II, appears to promise more definitive
answers than can be realized by using the Nike Hercules
system as an analog to investigate possible upgrading
from air defense to ABM capabilities.
2. The compilation of possible observables pro-
posed in Phase I should be both useful and easily done.
Numerous studies are available within the intelligence
community in addition-to the contractor studies mentioned
in the memorandum. The problem would appear to come
when choosing which observables must be collected,
especially if some would require on-site inspection.
Here the study could well become mired in different
interpretations of the effectiveness of the SA-5 as an
ABM and, in particular, what component changes would be
necessary to upgrade the current capabilities by given
increments. Since most of the intelligence community
now agrees that the system has only marginal ABM capa-
bilities, it is not sufficient to indicate that certain
changes will improve the performance in an ABM role.
The heart of the issue is how much the improvements
will upgrade the system. Only after such a determination
can one usefully distinguish between critical and trivial
observables.
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 Approved For Release 2000/05/23 : CIA-RDP79BOOSL72A000100510006-9
3. These difficulties would be compounded in
Phase II where an attempt may be made-to simulate the
inspection problem by using the Nike Hercules as an
analog to the SA-5. The Army (contrary to the assertion
in the contract description--See p. 17) has attempted
to upgrade the Nike Hercules to intercept missiles by
the addition of the Hi Par radar. The attempt is
generally adjudged a failure in that it is not effective.
An ACDA study contract using this approach runs the risk
of having a contractor manufacture a design for the SA-5
which he claims will intercept missiles. Unfortunately,'
the only way to test his hypothesis is to build the
system and try it. In the case of the Nike Hercules,
such contractor assurances were unfounded. Moreover,
the uncertainty surrounding the increase in ABM capa-
bilities that,would be achieved with given component
changes will hiake it difficult to agree on a point of
departure.
25X1A9a
CIA Liaison Officer for ACDA
Distribution:
Orig & 1 - Addressee
A- D/OSR
1 - DD/OSR
1 - SR/SF 25X1A9a
1 - OSI/DSD
1 -'SR/PL
OSR/PL sd/4148
25X1A9a
Approved For Release 2000/05/23 ~-CIA-RDP79B00972A000100510006-9