MIDDLE EAST SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B01737A000300010032-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: December 4, 1968
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2005/03/16 : CIA-RDP79B01737A000300010032-6
4 DeCeMber 1968
SUBJECT: middle East Situation
1. Israel for the third straight day has pounded hard
at Jordan, with a commando raid at the main communication
lines in southern Jordan, and with heavy artillery and air-
strikes at the irbid area in northern Jordan. The targets
include Jordanian government facilities, areas where Arab
terrorists have long been based and operating from, and at
Iraqi troop positions in Jordan. Late reports indicate that
the Israelis struck yesterday at the Jordanian airbase in
Mafraq.
2. The Israeli actions--and more may be in the offing--
were undertaken after a long period of relative restraint
in the face of attacks against Israel mounted from, east
Jordan by Arab terrorists, and shellings by Jordanian and
Iraqi troops. Both sides, as usual, blame the other for
precipitating the exchanges. The rate of incidents on the
Israeli-Jordanian border has been a steady three or four
a day for many weeks. The Arab terrorist bombing on 22
November of a Jewish marketplace in west Jerusalem in which
12 persons were killed particularly agitated the Israelis.
The Israeli response is the strongest since the airstrike
at the terrorist base at Salt in east Jordan last July.
3. Three reasons for the earlier restraint were
probably dominant in Israeli thinking. One, they did not
want to arouse American ire and endanger the purchase of
P-4 Phantom, jet aircraft; two, peace talks with the Arabs
through Jarring were going on; and three, King tiusayn was
attempting to curb the Arab terrorists. There have been
changes in all three situations. The Israelis apparently
now feel that they have the Phantom jet deal sewn up. The
Jarring talks have made no real progress, and the Israelis
are more convinced than ever that the prospects of a peace
settlement on their terms are extremely poor. They have
apparently also come to the conclusion that Husayn, despite
his efforts, can never really control the terrorists, who
are growing in nwnber and unity and influence throughout
the Arab world.
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4. Thus, in the absence of a peace aettlem nt, the
Israelis are taking up the cudgel again and reverting to
their former policy of "teaching the Arabs a lesson," and
reminding them? that Israel is a force to contend with. The
Israeli actions are a reflection of Israeli frustrations that
peace and the recognition of the existence of Israel rto--Fi
on the horizon after the defeat of the Arabs in the war of
.Tune 1967 has eluded then, largely because of a misreading
of the rah teperant, and the rapid re-arming of the
Arabs by the Soviets.
6. The "hawks" are currently dominant in Israel, and
we are probably in for a continuing round and counter-
round of military action. If the Arabs do not want to make
ace, the Israelis ew they will sit tight on the territories
they hold and fight.
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Approved For Release 2005/03 : iW-RDP79BO1737A000300010032-6