SOME STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS ON THE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B01737A000700060001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 20, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 24, 1974
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM: Some Statistical Observations on the Daily
in order to try to measure the contribution, if any,
that the -Dail has made during its experimental period,
we have compiled four short papers:
-- The first compares the coverage in the Daily
against that in the Post. The time period was chosen
haphazardly. We did not go through all 90-odd issues
and pick the weeks where the Daily looked best. The
first period (January 11--January 23) compares just the
Post with the Daily. The second period (March 17--
March 30) continues the comparison between the Daily
and the Post and to a lesser extent with the Times.
-- The second is a case study of the daily coverage
of the political storm that gathered around General Spinola
in Portugal..
-- The third makes some comparisons between the Daily
and the CIB. All of us have had the sense that the Daily
generated stories for the CIB (at least prior to the orders
that the CIB be more selective).
-- The fourth is an examination into how many of the
Daily's stories were written at night. The period covered
is March 18 through April 17. Not all of the stories noted
owe their existence to the Daily and its night arrangements,
but many do. In any case, we do not include, because we
have no way of recovering the information, how many stories
written during the day were amended, updated, or killed by
the night crews.
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I. A COMPARISON OF THE DAILY AND THE :POST
Herewith some of the findings of a quick comparison
of the Daily and The Washington Post, January 11 through
23. We have focused on news-type stories. We did not
compare those stories that continued for a number of
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more aetas e analysis to be of any use.
Conclusions:
-- The Daily carried a number of unique items
based on information unavailable to the com-
mercial press.
The Daily was generally more timely than the
Post. It was often a day ahead on important
stories and sometimes several days ahead.
-- The Daily provided "early warning" on such
developments as the brewing military unrest
in Ethiopia--long before anything appeared
in the commercial press.
--- Even in those stories covered in both the
Daily and the Post, the Daily often had an
added dimension provided by classified
information.
January 11: The Daily carried an item that said South
Korean President Pak was about to propose a non-
aggression pact to the North. The Post picked up
the story on January 19. The Daily on this day
ran an item on pressures that threatened the joint
European float; this presaged major developments
that culminated in the French quitting the float
in January 19..
January 12: The Daily carried the naming of Ten Hsiao-
ping to the Politburo. On the following day, the
Post noted that Teng's name was high up on a list
of dignitaries who sent wreaths on the death of the
vice minister of defense, suggesting this meant his
star was again on the rise. The Post did not pick
up his appointment to the Politburo until the 15th.
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January 13: Sunday--no issue, but Post did not scoop the
Daily on anything.
January 14: The Daily carried an item on a strike by 10,000
French coal miners in Lorraine, reporting that some
French officials saw "gloomy parallels" between the
strike and the labor situation in Britain. The Dail
updated the story on January 22, again noting that a
prd onged strike-would cut coal production in France
by one third. The Post never did report the strike,
and the Daily has not returned to wind up the story
to say whether or not the strike has been settled).
On January 16 both carried the appointment of Ecevit
as prime minister.
January 15: The Daily carried an item that said Bourguiba
was about to revoke his merger with Libya., Post car-
ried the story on the next day, the day on which the
Daily said Bourguiba had in fact backed away from the
merger.
January 16: The Daily carried an item on South Vietnam
Assembly getting three amendments from Thieu, the
most important of which would allow him to run for a
third term as president. The Daily had carried Thieu's
plans on these amendments on January 12. On the 18th,
the Daily said the assembly was likely to approve the
amendments, the day on which the Post first reported
that the amendments had boon offered. Post reported
on January 20 that thy: amendments were approved; the
Daily did not return to the story, although an item
on January 18 left the reader with the conclusion that
approval was a virtual certainty.
January 17: The Daily's lead story was on Jobert's trip to
several Arab states (set to begin January 24). Post
carried similar story on January 23. Editors had a
busy night preparing this issue, having six late items,
two of which were "intelligence exclusives." Of the
others,. two were similar to Post items
n r_ v rn
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than t e Post, and on the sixth C
tions carried different conclusions.
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Also on this day, the Dail
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Ethiopian military, long before anything appeared
on the subject in the commercial press.
January 18: In treating Middle East disengagement, the
Daily highlighted possible Syrian break with Egypt
over the issue while the Post concentrated on the
Israeli-Egyptian disengagement itself. Post picked
up the Syrian angle on January 21. The Daily carried
first reporting of clash on Paracels, which did not
appear in Post until the next day. The Daily reported
on January 19 that the Chinese had ousted the Victnam-
ese from the islands, not reported in the Post until
January 21. The Daily on the 18th al.so?carried an
item on conflicts among the Palestinians over repre-
sentation at the Geneva talks, which the Post did not
pick up until the 22nd.
January 19: Lead Daily item was Sadat's tour of several Arab
states to dispel fears on disengagement agreement. Post
front-paged the story on January 20. Both papers carried
late items on collapse of Belgian cabinet.. The Daily
carried story on strengthening of the dollar which was
a useful lead-in to subsequent monetary developments,
particularly the weakening of European and Japanese cur-
rencies in the wake of the French decision to quit the
joint float.
January 20: Sunday. No Daily, and the Post scooped us on the
French float decision and the Chinese expulsion of five
Soviets. Both of these stories were picked up by the
Daily on January 21.
January 21: The Daily carried item on Peron's "declaration
of war" against terrorists. It had already run item on
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January 17
I Post on January
21 had item on terrorist attack on Argentine Army garri-
son that prompted Peron's "declaration," but did not
carry the declaration itself until January 22. Also on
January 21, Post had item on Chinese arms aid to Pakistan
which asserts the Chinese will provide SAMs.
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January 22: Post carried story on a speech by Boumediene
foreshadowing his call for a UN session on the use of
the world's resources, which was covered by the Daily
on February 1. The Daily lead story on January 22
was similar to Post lead on world monetary matters.
Daily item focused on diverse ramifications of French
float decision while Post, reported mainly on immediate
effects on price of gold and European currencies. Also
on January 22, both carried brief items on Soviet pro-
test to Chinese over expulsion of officials, which Daily
characterized as "weak" and "belated." Post reported
the protest without comment.
January 23: Post on this date carried a story on an OAU dele-
gation meeting with Arab leaders on oil supplies. The
Daily on January 28 reported results of the meeting.
Both pubs carried Knesset approval of disengagement.
Daily was more sanguine on formation of Israeli cabinet
as a result of vote on Knesset speaker, which occurred
same day; not covered by Post.
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FEATURE OR FEATURE-TYPE ARTICLES--11-23 JANUARY
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In the Daily
Bourguiba
Vietnam Fighting
EC and Energy
UN Emergency Force
Brezhnev to Cuba
Lao Coalition Efforts
MBFR
Military in Chinese
Politics
In the Post
.3ourguiba
Iceland/NATO
US Boycot.t of Cuba
Resettlement in Quang Tri
Asian Resentment of Japan
Life in Phnom Penh
Canada Politics
Solzhenitsyn
Canada Oil
European Security Conferences
Italian Divorce Controversy Indonesia
Indonesia Riots & Underlying Education Debates in China
Problems
Pravda on US Congressmen
Solzhenitsyn
Crime in China
Crime in USSR
Indian Concern over French
Arms Deals in Persian Gulf
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I.a. A COMPARISON WITH THE POST AND TIMES
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We have also compared the content of the Daily against
that of the Post and the Times for the two-week period
March 17 through March 30. The res-clts are pretty much the
same as in the earlier period, although this time we attempted
a more detailed look at the kinds of stories, their placement
in the paper and some comment on their respective merit.
The conclusions again are similar:
-- The commercial press has a clear advantage
where it has correspondents overseas writing
unique material, a large, experienced, and
dedicated staff and a Sunday edition.
-- The Daily has clear advantages in respect to
timeliness inside, i.e., classified informa-
tion, and in the amount of foreign affairs
material we are able to print.
This investigation produced a rather long story, so we
are reproducing here only the material from March 19 and
March 29.
March 19 (Tuesday): Lead item in Post is on the lifting
of the Arab oil embargo. The Daily and `ri.mcs items focused
on report that Saudis are increasing production, mostly for
US; the Post item says the end of the embargo will not mean
US needs will be met. Daily item three days later says
increased production should go a long way toward meeting US
needs.
The Post item says Kurds have seized an area of Iraq
along the Iraq-Iran border. The Daily had carried this
sighting on March 16 and continued to=give good coverage
on the subject on March 21 and March 23. The Times treated
the Kurds on March 23.
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The Post carried story on refusal of Ethiopian noblemen
to sell land to peasants as ordered by the Emperor. Times
had Ehtiopian stories on March 21, 22 and 23. The Da li y
has been generally ahead of the commercial press on Ethiopia
even though it did not have an item on this day. On the fol-
lowing day, the Daily ran a broader piece that dealt with
growing rural unrest, of which the Post item was only a part.
The Post and Times had stories on violence in India's
Bihar state; both returned to the subject on,..March 20 and 21.
The Daily covered the story on March 20.
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Stories in the Daily on March 19 not covered by Post
during the week:
Vietnam fighting eases (In Times on same day)
Feature on three Soviet regional leaders
Paris pushes EC on energy policy
Feature on Soviet agricultural policy
Soviet military aid to Yemen (Aden)
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Waldheim may seek Austrian presidency
Continuing embargo on the Dutch
Raul Castro's extended visit to USSR
Sweden's economic program
Guatamalan presidential politics
A front-page Daily item on Soviet media reaction to the
Kissinger visit was not reflected in the Post or Times this
day, even though Daily item was based on open sources. The
Post did carry an equivalent item on March 30.
A Daily story on the Solzhenitsyn family's departure
from Moscow was based on information later that. got into the
Post.
The Post carried an item on the growing rift between the
US and Greece--a subject not reported in the Daily.
Items in the Daily on March 29 not carried in the Post
or Times:
Feature item on China: Chou en-lai under pressure
to be more militant on Taiwan, other issues
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South Vietnam: Communist supply movements increas-
ing (comment)
s
Feature: UAE investment policies (#3 in series)
Chile-Peru: border dispute could involve US Presi-
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East Germans get their first SA-3 mis.siles Qcomment)
Warsaw Pact to meet soon in Warsaw
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The Daily item on Moscow's second note to Peking on the
helicopter incident had a counterpart in both the Post and
the Times. The Daily item was analytical, the commercial
press was reportorial.
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I.I. THE RECENT TROUBLES IN PORTUGAL--A CASE STUDY
The Daily picked up the gathering storm in Li.sbon on
March 5, with an item suggesting that the government was
weighing its policies toward the African cgloni.es. As
evidence, we reported the publication of General Spinola's
book, which advocated a gradual loosening of control by
the Metropole. Spinola, who had led the fighting in Guinea
Bissau, was convinced the colonial war was gradually becom-
ing a no-win adventure that was tearing the'Portuguese army
apart.
The story said the publication of Spinola's book at the
least signalled a willingness to tolerate discussion of the
issue. We noted, however, that Caetano would have to be
careful not to arouse the ire of the right wing.
On March 6, the Daily carried a four-paragraph item on
demands by rightists--led by President Thomaz--for the
removal of Spinola for having published his book. The item
concluded that Spinola would be hard to dump because of his
support in the army. Item noted "reformists" had rallied
behind Spinola and were demanding removal. of Thomaz. Cactano
was said to be playing a middle role; we said it was unlikely
that Thomaz would remove Spinola. Item predicted more trouble
to come.
Nothing yet in the commercial press.
On March 7 the Daily carried a brief item on infiltra-
tion in Angola, but did not relate it to problems developing
in the Metropole.
On March 11 the Daily published a late item that said
generals Spinola and Costa Gomes may have been exiled. The
article said Caetanb still playing a middle role in the
matter.
The March 12 Daily reported that Spinola and Costa Gomes
were still in Portugal and that some of their supporters in
the military were being exiled. The Dail said Caetano would
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soon have to choose sides. Armed forces had been placed on
alert because of "internal disciplinary problems." The
Washington Post on the same day, March 12, had a six-lire
item in its "Around the-World" section reporting the mili-
tary alert. This was the first press men,tiori of anything
related to the controversy.
The March 13 New York Times reported the alert. The
Post on the 13th reported that the. alert had been lifted,
and for the first time, noted it was related to a debate
over African policy. The Post said that a group of junior
officers voiced support "last week" for Spinbla's views on
African policy.
The March 15 New York Times ran a small item on dismissal
of Costa Gomes and Spinola and characterized the matter as
the biggest political crisis in Portugal in a decade.
The March 15 Daily reported dismissal of Costa Comes and
Spinola, citing this as victory for rightists; said dismissals
might cause rumblings in colonies, and noted Costa Gomes
replaced by Luz Cunha. The CW7ashington Post on. March 15, again
in "Around the World" section, reported the dismissals and said
a new alert was on in Portuguese armed forces. The Post also
reported 100 political and'military leaders had met with Cae-
tano--on national TV--to pledge loyalty both to Caetano and to
current African policies.
The March 16 Daily did a piece on Luz Cunha and said his
appointment made it clear there would be no change in Portugal's
African policy. Suggested more leadership changes might occur.
The Washington Post on March 16, in its first full-scale
article on the matter, covered a speech by Caetano that expressed
optimism on the army's ability to win the colonial wars. The
article also caught up on a number of details not previously
in the press, but which had been in the Daily, and gave a brief
history of the-fighting in Africa. -.
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The Sunday Times_ had an item titled "The War Comes
Home, " which covered the "uprising" by some 200 troops in
Portugal. Post did the same, but on the front page--the
first front-page treatment in commercial press. Post on
this day--March 17--also had a box item that gave a
detailed account of the disagreements in Lisbon over Afri-
can policy. Post said Caetano tried to use Spinola as a
stalking horse to break the opposition of rightisLs to his
cautious political and economic reforms. Post said the
strategy came "unstuck" when the rightists rallied to force
removal of Spinola.
The March 18 Daily ran an item on the rebellion--we had
been scooped by lack of a Sunday edition.
The March 19 New York Times reported lifting of second
alert.
The March 20 Post had two items, one on aims of mutinous
troop and another a purported meeting of Spinola with a rebel
leader in Portuguese Guinea.
The March 20 Daily carried analytical item pointing out
that Caetano was now more dependent on the right. It noted
military alert off again.
On March 24 the New York Times had brief item saying
Portuguese army will never be the same following the recent
events.
On March 27 the Daily ran an item saying "substantial
segments" of military still opposed to Africa policy and
circulating petitions critical of ouster of Spinola and of
the policy-itself.
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III. A COMPARISON OF THE DAILY AND THE CIB
The Dail is calling to the attention of its readers
a quite different set of articles than those the CIB is
publishing. Of the 150 articles that began on the front
page of the Daily in March 1974, 58--over one third--did
not appear in the CIB on the same morning.
The Daily tends to be more current than the CIB. The
Bulletin did publish 59 late articles during the. month,
but 48 of these appeared before the Bulletin editors were
instructed to be more disciminating.
The Daily offers a dimension for the high-level policy
maker that the Bulletin can not. Of the Daily's front page
articles that the Bulletin did not run on the same day, 13--
almost a third--probably could not be included in the Bulle-
tin because of their classification. Another 11, or nearly
20 percent, were feature articles.
The more highly classified articles tend to be among
uric Daily's most important. Of the Dar's 37 highly classi-
fied articles, half appeared on the front page. The sarric
may be said of feature articles; amost one third began on
the front page.
The Daiy publishes a large number of articles that do
not appear in the Bulletin. Only 12 of the 298 articles the
Dail printed first were picked up subsequently by the Bul.icLin.
The Daily is an important vehicle for the Office of Econ-
omic Research to get its analyses before a broad, high-level
audience. Forty-five, or 15 percent, of the articles that
were unique to the Daily were OER articles.
Thirty-four Bulletin articles, or 5 percent of all Daily
articles, appeared in the Bulletin first. Another 23 articles
never appeared in the Daily.
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