CONCEPTUAL PLAN FOR DEVELOPMENT AND EXPERIMENTATION LABORATORY FOR TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS PROJECT DELTA (FORMERLY JIRN)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79M00096A000500060005-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: REPORT

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4
CONCEPTUAL PLAN
for
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPERIMENTATION LABORATORY FOR TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS
PROJECT DELTA
(FORMERLY JIRN)
Classified by DIA DP-3
SUBJECT TO GENERAL DECLASSIFICATION
SCHEDULE OF EXECUTIVE ORDER 11652
AUTOMATICALLY DOWNGRADED AT TWO
-YEAR INTERVALS
DECLASSIFIED ON DECEMBER 31, 1978
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CONTENTS
PAGE
? CHAPTER I General Concept and Objectives 1
A. Purpose 1
B. Requirement . 1
C. Objectives 2
CHAPTER II Characteristics and Applications 4
A. ChareCteristics 4
B. Equipment 4
C. Areas of Experimentation 4
,,.
CHAPTER III Tasking 11
A. Framework 11
B. Intelligence Directorate 11
C. Support Directorate 11
D. Plans Directorate 12
E. Collection Directorate 12
F. Other Directorates 13
G. Procedure 13
CHAPTER IV Administrative Considerations 14
A. Organization 14
B. Project Subordination 14
C. Resource Allocation 14
D. Space Requirements 14
E. Implementation Planning Schedule 14
F. Anticipated Gains 15
ENCLOSURE 1
ENCLOSURE 2
ENCLOSURE 3
ENCLOSURE 4
Operational Intelligence
Resource Planning
Organization and Personnel
Organizational Relationships
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Chapter I
General Concept and Objectives
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A. Purpose: The purpose of this plan is to provide a systems concept,
definition of objectives, organizational structure, and statement of
resource requirements for.a DIA RDT&E program for improved methodologies
and techniques in the processing analysis, and production of intelligence.'
The initial effort will be directed at improving capabilities in the field
of operational intelligence and warning. It will be known as the
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Development and Experimentation Laboratory for Techniques of Analysis,
Project DELTA (formerly JIRN).
B. Requirement;
1. No R&D program exists today in the US Intelligence Community which
is specifically focused on improving analytic and production capabilities
in the field of operational
development expenditures in
annually. Virtually all of
hardware (e.g.,
of capabilities for initial
intelligence and warning. Research and
intelligence now total nearly
it is devoted to the development of new
or to improvement
readout of the results obtained from specific
collection systems. The very modest R&D efforts which have been devoted
to date to the support of intelligence production have been concentrated
almost entirely on the worldwide DoD Intelligence Data Handling System
(IDHS). At present, IDHS provides support to many funetional areas of
intelligence, but extremel limited su,sort o o
and warning.
? $
still perform their tasks without
appreciable improvement in the methods, techniques and processing support
they have always used.
2. A vigorous and continuing RDT&E program is essential to the success
f current efforts to modernize the
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Without it, moderniza- 25X1'
tion efforts will result in little more than the installation of selected
items of hardware. Without it, the potential value of existing and
planned collection systems cannot be realized.
3. The development of improved analytical methodology and techniques
for current intelligence and warning is analogous to those research efforts
in the medical community which are directed at continually improving
diagnostic routines and treatment protocols. In the absence of this
type of research, the medical community would achieve only limited payoffs
from the development of new sensors directed at various parts of the
human body.
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4. The need for improved analytic techniques, methodology and
capabilities in intelligence production has been stressed at the highest
levels of our government. In September 1969, the President's Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) recommended the initiation and
vigorous prosecution of an experimental program to provide automated
support to the timely processing, evaluation and reporting of current
intelligence indications. It also recommended the establishment of
"research facilities" for this purpose in the various intelligence
agencies. The President, in his memorandum of 5 November 1971
(Organization and Management of the US Foreign Intelligence Community)
stressed the need for improving the intelligence product and stated
that a "determined effort" should be made to upgrade analysis methods.
On 15 May 1972, a member of the staff of the National Security Council
addressed a memorandum e,o the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Intelligence)
stating that "the intelligence community does not finance much in the way
of R&D on intelligence analysis." He recommended a research effort to
include such areas as: methods of communicating uncertainty between
intelligence analysts and consumers, Bayesian analysis and conditional
probability, decision techniques, statistical inference, hypothesis
testing, and computer-assisted analysis. On 2 August 1972, ASD(I)
forwarded the above memorandum from the NSC staff to the Director, ARPA ?
stating: "I share Mr. Marshall's interest in research to improve
intelligence analysis and I believe that research in the areas suggested
by Mr. Marshall and by members of my staff would be productive."
5. Project DELTA initially will address that part of the requirement
for improved intelligence analytical methodology which pertains to opera-
tional intelligence and warning. It is anticipated that the techniques
and methodology developed will result in significant benefits for the
entire field of intelligence production.
C. Objectives:
1. DELTA will provide an RDT&E facility for the conduct of experiments
in support of intelligence analytical techniques. The results of each experi-
mental operation will be evaluated against the standard of current operational
methods and results. Those experiments clearly indicating improvements in
cost-effectiveness may be transitioned from research to operations, subject
to availability of operations and maintenance funding. In general then,
the objective of DELTA is to identify and define those areas of intelligence
analysis and production in whiCh a demonstrable improvement is feasible
through the application of information science and technology.
2. DELTA will be a research project oriented toward substantive
intelligence analysis and support. As such, it is not designed to test
hardware. Therefore, although DELTA resources will include data handling
and computer support capabilities, advanced "off the shelf" support will
be used to minimize technical problems within the facility. While the
capabilities and advances achieved in other developmental systems
(Community On-Line Intelligence System (COINS), Defense Intelligence
Agency On-Line System (DIAOLS), Program Assisted Console Evaluation
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and Review System (PACER), Visual Analysis Sub-System (VASS), and
similar systems) will be used wherever applicable, no part of DELTA
will be devoted to purely technological improvement of data systems.
DELTA will remain excYusively a research effort in substantive intelligence
analysis and production. Experimental results will be measured entirely in
relation to their utility and impact upon substantive intelligence.
3. In pursuit of these objectives, DELTA will:
a. Develop and operate an RDT&E facility for the analysis and
production of intelligence.
b. Procure, ,as required, dedicated "state-of-the-art" hardware,
software, and communiCations support for the experimental facility to provide
optimal technological support with minimal technical problems.
C. Provide fOT communications interfaces.with selected other
major producers of operational intelligence, such as the Unified and
Specified Commands and the Military Departments, and with selected major
sources of information input such as NSA, NPIC, the Attache System, etc.
d. Conduct research on precisely defined experiments relating to
operational intelligence.
e. Effect detailed analysis and evaluation of the utility and
cost-effectiveness of .experimental results, in relation to the same
problems addressed by currently operational methodologies.
f. Develop, on the basis of affirmative experimental results,
capabilities and applications for operational use.
g. Transfer approved developed analytical techniques,
methodologies and procedures to operational users. Prepare definitive
reports on negative findings, indicating remaining problem areas; and
initiate follow-on experiments.
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Chapter II
Characteristics and Applications
A. Characteristics:
1. The project will optimize substantive intelligence utility rather
than technological advance.
2. Project resources, including all intelligence systems and
technical personnel, and data handling facilities will be funded within,
and remain dedicated to, this RDT&E effort.
3. Project direction will be under a research and development
project manager, as defined in DoD Directive 5010.14.
4. DELTA will conduct controlled research and development experiments,
using actual intelligence information in an operational environment, but
without a commitment to provide operational support (except in emergencies).
5. The DELTA facilities will be secured for all-source operations
at all times.
B. Equipment:
1. DELTA will operate with a secure, reliable state-of-the-art
technical capability for data processing support. The research and
development nature of the project dictates a broad capability to include
remote batch and interactive timesharing operations.
2. No specific equipment will be identified for procurement
until present resources available for dedication to this project are
exceeded. Current criteria require interface with the NSA interagency
data exchange system, the current intelligence support facilities of the
U&S Commands and Military Departments, the World Wide Military Command
and Control System (WWMCCS), and the tactical and intelligence sensor
systems in order to fulfill the Indications and Warning requirements.
Toward this end, DELTA will be developed and will 'operate in close
coordination with the system design and engineering for the worldwide
indications and warning system, assigned to the Rome Air Development
Center, Air Force Systems Command. Subject to these considerations, the
programming languages, data management systems, executive operating
systems and query languages will be interoperable.
3. Software will include standard library programs, applying the
techniques of quantitative and statistical analysis.
C. Areas of Experimentation:
1. Design constraints
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a. A constant goal of operational intelligence is to instill
higher confidence levels in analytical judgments. In examining experi-
mental techniques that can contribute toward this goal, certain charac-
teristics of the inforation used in operational intelligence must be
borne in mind.
b. To the operational intelligence analyst, events and evidence
are almost invariably 'presented in narrative form. Even if acquired in
other forms (PHOTINT, ELINT, COMINT . . . ) the information generally is
processed from signals into human readable narrative before transmission
to the analyst. Given this fundamental constraint, DELTA will concentrate
on improved infoLmation processing techniques, display devices and quanti-
tative and qualitative.,aids to decision making which can operate on
narrative data, quantified, or at least scaled, whenever possible.
c. A number of studies of the activity in operational intelli-
gence have been made. /A study of this area in DI is now in progress.
Utilizing these and similar studies and the guidance of DI, the most
pressing needs will be addressed first. While these needs should not
be predetermined at this stage of planning, speculation on examples of
these needs provides a useful aid to further planning and implementation.
2. Phase I: Early Applications
a. Information Storage and Retrieval
(I) Development of message storage and retrieval system. Message
traffic, being high in volume and most "perishable," is an early application
candidate. A subsystem to provide on-line access to a 30, 60, or 90 day
store of traffic would be very useful. A system of indexing, plain text
and keyword processing, or some other method of content control, would
provide a highly selective retrieval and correlation capability. The
analyst could continually monitor and correlate traffic using an on-line
data handling system. At present, he depends upon experience, memory, and
laborious manual methods to perform this important task.
(2) File Manipulation. Another required operation is the
continuing comparison of incoming information against existing information
such as a data base of "routine" intelligence produced by DIA and other
agencies. The current intelligence analysts' access to this data can be
improved both in timeliness and extent. Direct e.ccess to finished
intelligence on personalities, military capabilities, installations,
and weapon systems, (the "people, places and things" which interact to
cause events), would be a significant improvement over present access methods.
Communications among the Commands and agencies can now enable direct access to
such information wherever it resides, whether in the'local Washington
area or at PACOM, for example. Access to this information can be provided
directly to the analyst by his use of terminals and a data management
system (language) which can be virtually "transparent" to him, requiring
very little special training and consuming very little of his time.
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b. Information Displays
(1) Unfortunately, even with highly selective data access
systems, the selected information presented for analysis increasingly
reaches an unmanageable volume. A narrative or tabular listing of a
thousand selected facts is not readily assimilable by the human intellect.
However, each of these facts represents a data point that can be ?
synthesized into displays from which almost immediate, hypotheses can be
drawn for testing by an experienced analyst. For example, a tabular
listing of all foreign air activity on a given day would be an all but
unintelligible mass. Displayed in an origin/destination statistical
table, however, it provides useable information for analysis. Perhaps
even more immediately useful would be a map display with the flight
traffic displayed by lines weighted for volume. It should be noted
parenthetically that analysts do prepare such displays manually,' at
great cost in time, in order to be able to understand and exploit a
mass of data.
(2) Data mapping techniques currently in use in many activities
can be. modified to fit DIA analytical problems, thus permitting huge
volumes of information to be displayed by density, distribution and
quality. Such displays can be interactive with the analyst, enabling
him to refine, modify and otherwise experiment with "what if" propositions
and observe the potential impact of such propositions on the entire data
base.
c. All-Source Collation, Correlation and Multi-File Query
(1) Various search techniques, by location, time, type, numbers,
names, and many other conditions can provide a rapid search of disparate
sources and a collation, i.e. assembly, of all pertinent data in appropriate
order for analysis. For example, travel of key personalities in a given
area between given dates can be compared with air traffic, communications
traffic, etc. In short, a single set of selection parameters can be used
to query a number of files, providing an array of information for analysis.
To achieve this manually, or even with some existing automated systems, is
cumbersome and sometimes impossible.
(2) Physical correlation (as distinguished from statistical
correlation discussed below) will also be examined. It may be possible to
develop a capability to retrieve and display, on a geographic or data
coordinate basis, overlays or patterns of activity showing both volumes
and rates of change on such subjects as air movements, submarine activity,
logistic stockpiling, communications traffic, test range activity, shipping,
VIP travel, infiltration, etc. Successive overlay of such displays can
indicate trends, patterns, confluences and critical points for further
immediate analysis.
(3) In addition to using a data base produced by others, the
current intelligence analyst can create and manipulate files of his own.
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He can continually revise these files on the basis of his analysis of
incoming traffic. Eventually, these files can be "combined" with those
of other operational intelligence centers by on-line access and query.
Later DELTA will develbp capabilities for computing and revising probabilities ,
on the basis of new information received.
d. Probability Analysis
Using the events file developed earlier, probabilities can be
estimated for each of a set of occurrences. As new events are reported
these event probabilities can be combined or "chained" into an overall
estimate of probability. Current DI work along these lines will be
enlarged and its applicability to operational intelligence will be
investigated and evanated.
For example, assume that component test data on a given weapon
system yields the following:
Component
C1 succeeds
98%
of
the
time
Component
C2 succeeds
80%
of
the
time
Component
C3 succeeds
87%
of
the
time
Elementary probability analysis states that when the weapon these
components comprise is employed, it will succeed
.98 x .80 x .87 = .68208
or 68% of the time. It can now be hypothesized that the user of this
system will require two weapons for each single target assigned to the
weapon system, if assured performance is necessary.
This case is merely illustrative of simple probability
analysis. Conditional probability and Bayesian analysis can be applied
to far more complex situations yielding far less obvious answers.
e. In summary, early DELTA effort will address the development
of data bases and manipulation and display capabilities designed expressly
for operational intelligence in its present form. Assuming some successes
in this area, DELTA, in the mid-range time period, will use this data base
and experience for experimentation on more advanced techniques.'
3. Phase 2: Mid-Range Applications
a. Correlation
Correlation is an analytical technique which examines a set
of data in terms of (as a function of) another set. Once an acceptable
relationship is established, it is possible to determine precisely the
degree of relationship between the two sets. This relationship, expressed
as a "coefficient of correlation," provides a-Measure of the amount of
change in one set directly attributable to the other. In a more advanced
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form these relationships can be determined among multiple sets (sources)
and the change and interaction among them can be far more accurately
extrapolated. With some subjects the degree of correlation is obvious and
simple to establish. ,Sales of guns to sales of ammunition, or of aircraft
to fuel are examples. In operational intelligence, of course, the
relationships are 'generally so hidden and complex that time does not permit
their fill exploitation. For example, what is the degree of relationship
of test activity to training, or of air activity to foreign aid programs,
or of truck movement in the Laotian Panhandle to the Moon phages? A
system can be designed to provide very rapid analytical support capabilities
of this sort. Such a capability is of great value in extrapolation and
forecasting.
b. Regressioil Analysis
Regression analysis is a technique for determining an expression,
or set of relationships, which describes the observed behavior between two
sets of information. If the amplitude and direction of change in one set
is known, then the future behavior of the other set can be predicted
scientifically.
This contrived example is intended only to illustrate the
technique. Obviously, an experienced analyst would perform an "intuitive"
regression analysis wiz_out this technique and he would report "some degree
of probable or possible" relationship between the two events. This
experiment will apply scientific method to that intuitive procedure, perhaps
yielding greater and more accurate value from the same inputs.
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c. Statistical Analysis
Statistical 'analysis of data can provide measures for determination
of norms and departure from norms. If an average of certain daily activity
is known from past history and the distribution of variations about that
average can be determined, then a set of variances can be defined. With
this data, control charts depicting the norm and its variance can be
? displayed, with actual events being plotted on the chart as they occur.
The exceeding of norms by events is then immediately obvious.
From the correlation example above, 10 was found to be normal
level of strategic air activity. By statistical analysis it might be found
that the distribution about that mean is statistically normal with a standard
deviation of 2. It would be possible then to have the automated message
handling system, described above, count the unique flight identifiers
for strategic flights during a given base period. When that count for
the period exceeds 12, the analyst can be advised to check for additional
tender deployments. The potential extensions of these techniques into a
very advanced network of indicators will be attempted.
d. On-line conferencing techniques
With on-line computer support it is possible to develop a modern
"conferencing" technique, using many expert judgments to arrive at consensus
estimates as a basis for decision. It is possible for analysts, worldwide, who
are expert on a given subject, to combine their judgments through an on-line
data system, so that in a matter of minutes, the National Command Authority
can be briefed, that "the consensus judgment of all experts, worldwide, is
that this event means . . ." This technique holds great promise in fore-
casting, and is used most prominently by the Executive Office of the President
in forecasting impact of events on the national economy. This capability is
revolutionary in relation to those now existing in operational intelligence.
It is not simply an exchange of views, but a precise reduction of judgments
to a range acceptable for a basis of action.
4. Phase 3: Long Range Applications
Modeling
In the long range, DELTA may examine some of the more esoteric
analytical techniques, such as modeling. Here, the main problem is the
construction of the model itself, which must be done with the most expert
judgments available. For example, if one can postulate a linear model
of what the Soviets consider the optimal force to be maintained in East
Germany, and if one an estimate the principal objectives of that force,
then actual events and changes can be evaluated against that model and the
capability of a given force to meet the objectives can be measured. This
"sensitivity analysis" serves as a basis to revise norms and indicator
lists and estimates of future intent. It should be noted that far more
advanced models, involving multiple non-linear relationships, can be
developed.
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b. Simulation and Gaming
(1) Scenarios representative of certain major chains of events
can be developed, exercised and modified to observe the changes resulting
from hypothetical or actual events.
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(2) Gaming techniques can provide a basis for estimating
potentially hostile strategies as represented by, or extrapolated from,
events. These, like most of ?the other advanced techniques, involve
some risk because of the uncertainties involved. An adversary may have
a very complex combination of strategies and motives, which might change
radically with a simple change of command or of political leadership.
These techniques can be of great value in developing alternatives for
analytical consideration, replacing the futility inherent in assessing
uncertain actions of a hostile opponent.
5. Phase 4; The Distant Future
In the future, operational intelligence centers may receive
information directly from many deployed technical sensors. The information
will be converted, correlated and arrayed in display matrices, with
indicators, norms and probabilities being continually updated and displayed.
When specified combinations of events occur, or when a given probability
threshold is exceeded, the analyst will be warned and all data will be
displayed for his examination and study.
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Chapter III
Tasking
A
A. This conceptual plan is intended to provide a framework for
the organization and tasking of those resources required to address DELTA
implementation planning in detail.
B. Intelligence Directorate (DI)
I. DELTA is initially dedicated to addressing a major function of
DI. The major substantive input to the project will be in accordance with
requirements defined by DI. The early experiments and applications will
be developed under the'substantive guidance of DI. Therefore, the Project
Director will be organizationally attached to DI, reporting through DI to
the Director.
2. The DELTA Project Director will: assume responsibility for project
implementation upon approval of this concept plan. Implementation planning
requires that DI:
a. Assemble, review and consolidate applicable previous studies
and analyses of operational intelligence.
b. Perform additional analyses as required to supplement the
consolidated study into a complete and detailed analysis of operational
intelligence in DIA.
c. Examine operational intelligence activities in the major
Agencies, Military Departments, and Commands, to identify similarities
and define variations.
d. Identify in priority order the first DELTA data base application
from the resultant description of operational intelligence.
e. Assist in design of those applications and in the preparation
of evaluation parameters for those applications.
f. Integrate the implementation plan inputs of all Directorates.
g. Provide continuing direction for the operation, evaluation
and application of DELTA to the processing, analysis and production of
intelligence.
C. Support Directorate (DS)
I. DELTA hardware and software planning will proceed with the design
constraint that ultimately the DELTA data handling facilities must interface
three major "communities": First, other DIA systems; second, the worldwide
indications and warning network; and third, the Washington area intelligence
community. This planning, as well as participation in hardware and software
evalUation and selection, is a primary responsibility of DS.
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? 2. In addition, DS will be tasked to address the problems of security,
space allocation, communications, and personnel.
3. The DS DELTA project officer in conjunction with DI will:
a. Identify and define existing'ADP resources which can be
. dedicated to DELTA support.
b. Initiate hardware/software evaluation preparatory-to selection;
if and when existing dedicated resources are exceeded.
c. Plan hardware/software selection and procurement, as required.
Participate in initial application design.
d. Plan for required hardware/software interfaces.
e. Provide continuing technical guidance for the continuation of
DELTA.
f. Plan for implementation of space, security, communications
personnel and other support requirements,
g. Insure responsive support of additional DELTA requirements.
Plans Directorate (DP) will:
1. Prepare, and staff for approval, the concept plan for Project DELTA.
2. Program research and development funds for support of Project DELTA.
3. Coordinate implementation actions prepared by the Project Director
in DI.
4. Initiate plans 'required for the external interface of the DELTA
concept with Commands, Military Departments, other agencies, and the
Washington area intelligence community.
5. Monitor and evaluate project implementation and operation for
consistency with the DELTA concept plan and overall intelligence system
plans.
E. Collection Directorate (DC) will:
1. Provide guidance relative to standard collection reporting formats
and procedures.
2. Provide guidance on interface with selected major sources of
collection reporting, such as NSA, NPIC and the Defense Attache System.
3. .Advise on parallel developments in the collection system, such as
indexing and sensor source data automation.
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F. Other Directorates
CC, DE, DC, AA, and DT DELTA project officers will participate in
implementation planning in order to keep informed of potential impact
upon their activities, as well as to assist in addressing pertinent
problems as they arise.
G. Procedure
Each Directorate (DI, DP, DS, CC, DE, DC, AA, and DT) will appoint a
project officer for all matters pertaining to DELTA planning. Upon final
coordination and approval of this conceptual plan, implementation planning
should be accomplished by assigning major portions exclusively to a
single Directorate, lather than planning by committee. Action officer's
will address jointly only total contributions, their integration, and other
joint problems encountered. Upon appointment by DI of a Project Director,
the Project Directorwill'assume the central direction, planning, integration
and coordination required for DELTA implementation, operation, and
evaluation.
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OD
Chapter IV
Administrative Considerations
A. Organization: The four military and 37 civilian personnel of DELTA
will be organized and distributed as shown in enclosure 3.
B. Project Subordination:
1. As the initial objectives of DELTA are directed toward the
development of substantive capabilities in operational intelligence, the
project will be under the executive direction of the Deputy Director for
Intelligence (DI). As an experimental facility DELTA will address not
only existing DI procedures and requirements in production of operational
intelligence, but also will examine completely new methodologies, procedures,
techniques, and capabilities. Guidance and coordination on these matters
as well as planning for external interfaces and evaluation of results will
require participation, monitoring, review and evaluation by the Plans
Directorate (DP). Coordination of the required hardware/software interfaces
with other external and internal systems will require the coordination and
technical guidance of the Support Directorate (DS).
2. These internal relationships of the project to other DIA elements
are depicted in enclosure 4. The Project Director will report through
the Deputy Director for Intelligence to the Director. The Project Director
will receive primary substantive intelligence support requirements from DI,
designing and conducting experiments on those requirements and reporting
results to DI. He will receive primary technical guidance from DS.
Systems and technical personnel will be assigned organizationally to DS
and they will be operationally responsive to DELTA.
3. Overall policy, planning and programming guidance for DELTA will
be provided by the Directorate far Plans (DP).
C. Resource Allocation:
Funding and manpower resources for DELTA are shown in enclosure 2.
D. Space Requirements:
The optimum location of the DELTA facility and associated equipment
will be determined by DI. DI will provide for adequate work areas to
meet operational and environmental requirements.
E. Implementation Planning Schedule: Following approval of the DELTA
Conceptual Plan, implementation planning and actions will be phased to
insure that staffing, resource acquisition and initial applications are
under way by mid-73. The following schedule will meet that objective:
14
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ui2ILI-AAJ U
'Tasking for implementation planning 5-15 Nov 72
Directorates' progress report on implementation
planning
Directorates' final inputs and integration
Coordination and approval of implementation plan
Initiate implementation as planned
DELTA initial research capability
F. Anticipated Gains:',
15 Dec 72
15 Jan 73
1 Feb 73
1 Feb 73
1 Jul 73
1. In the final analysis, the efforts of the intelligence community,.
and the sizeable magnitude of its budget, must be judged by the quality
and timeliness of its product. This is precisely where the anticipated
improvement resulting from Project DELTA is focused.
2. Heretofore, the intelligence community has expended virtually
all of its vast R&D resources on the development of a wide spectrum of
collection systems and on related processing centers which provide
initial "readout" capabilities. Very little R&D effort has been applied
to product improvement, and virtually none in the field of operational
intelligence and warning. This has resulted in a situation where the
President and other high-level decision-makers are now calling for a
determined effort to improve our analytic techniques and methodology in
order to improve the intelligence product.
3. The changing nature of the threat facing the United States has
reduced our confidence that we will be able to provide strategic warning.
There is, therefore, a compelling requirement to assure that we are able
to exploit all appropriate data from each collection system in minimum
time and correlate the results obtained from one system with those obtained
from another. The development of such a capability requires an R&D effort
in analytic techniques and methodology such as DELTA will provide.
4. In brief, the anticipated payoff from DELTA will come from product
improvement and greater return on the considerable investment of the U.S.
Intelligence Community in its collection systems.
4 Enclosures afs
FOR THE DIRECTOR:
OFFICIAL:
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r\nrPn17;)1pi\n7Pn
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Enclosure 1
Operational Intelligence
oaDnIEMMIEDJN19711rivi I
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LbUll U
DEFINITIONS
Indications and Warning - The short-range process of monitoring, .
analyzing and assessing events and evidence against an array of indicators
and providing warning of imminent events or situations, as required.
Current Intelligence - In depth, all source, deliberative analysis
of events and evidence against the same indicators, plus other organizational
reporting requirements.
Operational Intelligence - Indications and warning, plus current
intelligence.
Information Flow in Operational Intelligence as depicted in Figure Al.
. MEEDETTUtl..
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Indications
Analysis
Indications
A
Data Base
amiss wne... .mob* Were.
Command
and
Control
diagrA Onff
Current Study
Intelligence Analyze
Interpret
17T;)?d7Z--4.
OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
REIRMIINfa
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LkoRIFER:70a
Enclosure 2
,Resource Planning
1
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25X1
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R
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied
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[11.11)15.,UNi u ?
Enclosure 3
Organization and Personnel
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e7-,7%-,72-1,79
Operational Intelligence Unit
Chief 06
Secretary GS 6
Indications & Warning
Chief GS14 (1)
Intel Spec GS13 (2)
Intel Spec GS12 (4)
Intel Spec GS11 (2)
Intel Spec GS09 (1)
Project Management Office
Chief GS15
Deputy 06
Secretary GS 7
Intelligence Support
Chief GS14 (1)
Intel Spec GS13 (2)
Intel Spec GS12 (4)
Intel Spec GS11 (2)
Intel Spec GS09 (1)
Systems Support Unit
Chief GS15
Secretary GS 5
Systems Analysis
Chief GS14 (1)
Sys Anal GS13 (2)
Sys Anal GS12 (2)
Sys Anal GS11 (1)
Sys Anal GS 9 (1)
DELTA Organization
COM EATrti
_Computer Support
Chief
.Sys Anal
Sys Anal
Sys Anal
Com Spec
GS14
(1)
GS13
(2)
GS12
(1)
GS11
(1)
03
(2)
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ROMEMEL
MILITARY
Position No Grade Service
Assistant Proj Manager
1
06
USAF
Chief, Intelligence Unit
1
06
USAF
Communications Officer
2
03 .
USA
TOTAL MILITARY 7 4
CIVILIAN
Position-
Grades
5
6
7
9
11
12
13-
14
15
Project Manager
1
Chief, Systems Support
1
System Analyst
1
2
3
4
2
Intelligence Analyst
2
4
8
4
2
Secretary -
1
1
1
GRADE TOTALS
1
1
1
3
6
11
?4
2
TOTAL CIVILIANS ? 37
DELTA Rank/Grade Distribution
.B9KFIBEYSOL
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Enclosure 4
Organizational Relationship
EIREMErr_
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Plans
Directorate
DP
Planningi Policy &
Program Guidance
Coordination
1
((i
1/4_, '
Director
LrIA
Coordination
Intelligence
Directorate
La
I Reports
Executive Direct -)n
Project
DELTA
Support
Directorate
DS
ADP Support &
Technical Guidancq
ORGANIZATIONAL RELATIONSHIPS
MREENZI,
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