COST OF THE SOVIET INTELLIGENCE EFFORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79M00467A002400050002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 7, 1976
• Content Type: MF

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central
Intelligence
SUBJECT : Cost of the Soviet Intelligence Effort
1. We estimate that Soviet foreign intelligence
activities in 1975 would have cost more than 6 billion
dollars (in 1975 prices) if they had been pursued in
the United States. The estimated dollar costs for the
major elements of the Soviet intelligence effort are
as follows:
Billion 1975
Dollars
Satellite collection systems
(including R&D and intelligence
processing costs)
Land-based Sigint collection
-systems
Airborne and seaborne collection
systems (including reconnaissance
and Sigint)
Clandestine collection and covert
action
Intelligence research, analysis,
and production
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2. Although we believe this estimate can pro-
vide a rough measure of the size of the foreign
intelligence effort, it must be borne in mind that
it cannot be used in isolation as a measure of the
capability or effectiveness of the Soviet foreign
intelligence establishment. It is an estimate of
the cost of inputs, not the "value" of outputs.
3. Developing an estimate of the dollar cost
of the Soviet foreign intelligence effort poses a
series of complex analytical problems, and the results
are subject to substantial margins of error. We
have prepared this dollar cost estimate drawing
upon a more detailed 1970s study for format and cover
age and to some extent for input to this estimate.
We used OSR resources primarily but did seek and
receive support from the Directorate of Operations
and their assistance is gratefully noted.
4. The range of uncertainty in the total is
difficult to assess but could be as large as 1 to 2
billion dollars. The highest cost program in dollar
.terms--satellite collection systems--is the one
in which we have the greatest confidence. We were
able to review, specifically for this study, the
physical data on launch vehicles and other aspects
of space programs which have intelligence applications.
We used the costing techniques developed by OSR as
part of our overall effort to estimate the dollar
and ruble costs of Soviet defense programs.
5. We have only slightly less confidence in
our dollar cost estimates for airborne and seaborne
Sigint collection systems. The order-of-battle
statements for these systems were reviewed and up-
dated for this study. Here again we were able to
use our existing techniques to estimate the dollar
cost of the aircraft and ships involved. We used
an NSA input to the 1970 study to estimate the
additional costs that are peculiar to the Sigint
collection function of these platforms. The bulk
of the total costs, however,-are for the ships and
aircraft.
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6. The dollar costs of clandestine collection;
covert action; and intelligence research, analysis,
and production are less certain than those for the
technical collection programs. Most of the costs are
driven by DDO's estimates of the number of men engaged
in these activities. Although DDO revised their 1970
estimates for this study they did not have the oppor-
tunity to devote the resources to this review that
were applied to the previous study.
7. Estimating the dollar costs of the land based
Sigint program was the most difficult problem. We
did not ask NSA to revise its 1970 estimate, but we
.did adjust their earlier estimate to reflect program
changes of which we were aware. The dollar cost
estimates in this work as well as the earlier one
remain the most uncertain.
S RA EAL
Director
Strategic Research
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NOTE FOR: D/DCI/IC
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I Intelligence Agency
II
Attached is the Agency's effort to cost
out the dollar costs of the Soviet NFIP. As
you will note, this is full of holes and caveats
but I do think it is of some utility. We are
often asked what the cost of the Soviet intelli-
gence is. It is a fair question and we need to
have some judgment about this. We came up
with a figure back in 1970; we were never
very proud of it. We have updated it now in
1975 terms. We will keep the entire subject
under review and will update it as time permits.
If you agree, I would think CFI, NFIB,
perhaps PFIAB, the SSCI and the HAC should
be recipients of this information. I have
attached a two-paragraph draft of a note to
the members of the NFIB which you can for-
ward if you like.
MME
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Members of the National Foreign
Intelligence Board
SUBJECT Cost of the Soviet Intelligence
Effort
1. Attached is a memorandum prepared by CIA's
Office of Strategic Research on the "Cost of the
Soviet Intelligence Effort." The memorandum estimates
the total cost of Soviet intelligence activities
during 1975 as about six billion dollars, calculated
at 1975 dollar prices.
2. This memorandum. is not the result of a
recent intensive program of research, but is rather
an update of a more thorough study of Soviet intelli-
gence costs completed in 1970. As the text indicates,
it is possible to calculate the costs of certain
Soviet programs with greater confidence than others.
The uncertainties are such that the total could be
as much as one-third higher or lower. Nevertheless,
we believe this study gives a good general sense of
the cost to the USSR of intelligence collection,
processing, and analysis in the USSR.
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MEMOR)iDUM FOR:
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