THE CONFLICT IN THE WESTERN SAHARA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00603A002500090001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 1, 1977
• Content Type: IM

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Top Secret
Interagency
Intelligence
Memorandum
The Conflict in the Western Sahara
Top Secret 25X
NI IIM 77-008J
June 1977
? 235
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CONTENTS
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Page
PRINCIPAL JUDGMENTS ...................................................................................... 1
DISCUSSION .............................................................................................................. 5
Who Owns the Sahara? ....................................................................................... 5
Algeria's Motives ................................................................................................... 5
Origins of the POLISARIO ................................................................................ 5
The Guerrilla Campaign ...................................................................................... 6
POLISARIO Politics .............................................................................................. 6
The POLISARIO's Military Advantages and Successes ................................. 6
The Moroccan-Mauritanian Military Alliance .................................................. 7
Guerrilla Limitations ............................................................................................ 8
Political and Economic Consequences of a Protracted Guerrilla War ..... 9
Morocco ............................................................................................................... 9
Mauritania ........................................................................................................... 9
Algeria .................................................................................................................. 10
Military Developments ......................................................................................... 10
The Moroccan Response .................................................................................. 10
Algeria Upgrades Conventional Forces ......................................................... 10
Restraints Against a Moroccan-Algerian War .................................................. 11
Moroccan Deliberations ..................................................................................... 11
Algerian Limitations ......................................................................................... 12
Terrain and Logistic Restraints ..................................................................... 12
Projected International Reaction to the Advent of Hostilities .................... 13
Arab Reactions ................................................................................................... 13
Soviet Role ......................................................................................................... 13
French Interests ................................................................................................. 14
US Strategic and Economic Interests in Northwest Africa ......................... 15
Prospects for a Settlement .................................................................................. 16
Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 18
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CONFLICT IN THE WESTERN SAHARA
PRINCIPAL JUDGMENTS
Morocco and Mauritania are tenaciously maintaining their hold on
the former Spanish Sahara despite persistent harassment by the
guerrillas of the POLISARIO front. Algeria refuses to recognize the
Moroccan-Mauritanian annexations, advocates self-determination for
the Sahara, and gives substantial material support to the POLISARIO
insurgency. In the short term, there appears to be little chance of a
negotiated settlement of this conflict.
The POLISARIO movement has caused a significant amount of
Moroccan and Mauritanian resources to be used for countering
guerrilla activity. As long as the flow of Algerian military supplies is
continued and their Algerian safehaven is maintained, the guerrillas
should be able to operate almost indefinitely. Numbering only some
3,000 to 5,000 combatants, however, and hampered by logistic
constraints and their heavy dependence on limited sources of external
military support, they do not pose a strategic military threat to either
Morocco or Mauritania. Nor do we believe that the POLISARIO can,
at its own initiative, significantly upgrade its existing military force.
During the next two years, the current situation will probably
continue:
- Morocco and Mauritania will strive to consolidate their political
control over the territory, alleging that integration of the Sahara
fulfills the desires of the Saharan people, but avoiding any
referendum. They will control the principal population centers
but will not be able to eliminate the guerrilla movement so long
as it is sustained by Algeria.
- the POLISARIO will continue to move through the countryside
harassing Moroccan and Mauritanian forces, and on occasion
scoring minor military successes, some of considerable propa-
ganda value.
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
20 April 1977
SUBJECT: NI IIM 77-008: THE CONFLICT IN THE WESTERN SAHARA
1. The protracted guerrilla war involving Moroccan, Algerian,
Mauritanian and Polisario interests in the ex-Spanish Sahara continues
to be a potentially escalatory and explosive situation. In view of the
US Government's interests in the area, I have asked that a study be
undertaken to examine the current situation, assess the likelihood of
expanded fighting, and explore the elements of a possible settlement.
2. The proposed Terms of Reference (TOR) for this IIM have been
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3. The tentative production schedule for this IIM envisages
completion of the first draft by 9 May and consideration of the draft
by NFIB representatives during mid-May.
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Robert R. Bowie
Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence
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