IMMEDIATE PROSPECTS IN IRAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000200010001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 12, 1953
• Content Type: BRIEF

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12 November 1953
IAT1 PROMPNCTS IN IRAN
Issue
:Oil ttt nt sill be very difficult to
top officials badly informed,
nflexible in thinking and constrained
fear of popular reaction.
ran had no actual plass to settle
he oil dispute or to resume oil
rations.
stand of Primo Minister Zahedi
that of Moseadeq's: the
not return to Iran nor
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hold a najority positioa 14 107
-
company explottiag Iranian
Iran must be allowed to enjoy all
the profits from its oil.
3. Zahedi professes to understand the
difficulties which Iran faces is
the world oil markets, but iasis
that Iranian public opinion will
not allow compromise on these
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g2Lital Trial tor Treason
A. Any desire on part of Zabedi for a
quick comproeise on the oil issue is
*leo blocked by Mmemadeq's ?arrest
rial.
os of trial isdicate
vi I attempt to show
R( prosecuted tor
British sad' tor
es oil. Be
as a sosadtag
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board to embarrass government which,
under these circumstances, will feel
forced to remain firm in opposing
return of British influence to Iran.
2. Mossadeq is also attempting to
create impression that he is a pop-
ular hero persecuted by his esomileS.!
His appeal to.mob emotion is typical
of Mossadeq's previous action, but
it has not yet been effective at .
the trial. His actions suggest that
he plans to force government to make
his a martyr.
3. Mossadeq probably will be found
guilty of treason but his disposi-
tion presents problem*. Arivaresian
civil law protects men over sixty,
as well as women, from execution.
The present trial is military, but
the civil law might provide a
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organisation,
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Only constant attrition by
raids and arrests, accompanied by
prosecution, will keep Tudeb from
again challenging government.
D. !Caked' has failed to make progress on
economic and financial problems. The
$454000,000 in American aid is contrib.-
uting to budget, but Iran has not prow
seated a program to utilise the aid any
further.
Zabedi's government appears to expect
to solve its problems with an oil
income, but there is no indication
that an oil settlement is imminent.
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Will not room* relations with
until progress is made toward sot
oil dispute.
I . Favors an isteraational consortium to
transport aid distribste Iranian oil,
A1OC must not be a majority partielPnat
/II. Will not permit AIOC to ask c
for loss or future profits.
Issists that any *grimmest must *sear* to
Ira* that its oil income willlsover 'wipe
less than the nazism* accruing to ethers**
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