INDONESIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000700010027-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 27, 2002
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: January 24, 1956
• Content Type: BRIEF

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 Approved For Release 200
I. Coalition cabinet in Indonesia., led by moderate Ma.sjumi Premier
"Ua.ra.ha.p, is presently putting on brave front but its life-
expectancy grows poorer daily.
U. Vote of confidence could be called for at any time.
II. Ca.binet's brave front followed near-disastrous withdrawal of
two Moslem parties from coalition, thereby reducing Government's
nominal majority in la.me-duck pa.rlia.ment to 23 seats.
A. Vaca.ncies caused by withdrawal of Na.hdla,tul Ularaa. (NU) and
Islamic League (PSII) have been filled from cabinet's own
ranks.
D. Cabinet has refused to resign.
C. Despite earlier reports that negotiations with Dutch--issue
which sparked present crisis--would be broken o--'-f, cabinet
has announce talks will be continued.
III. Masjumi success in staving off immediate collapse is hollow
victory, however.
A. MMMa.sjumi now finds itsel:k_ isolated from BTU, Indonesia.'s
only other major Moslem party.
D. In consequence, Ma.sjumi may not even be included in next
government (to be formed after sea.ting of new pa.rlia.men;,
probably in April).
25X6
25X1
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Ieanwhile, cabinet's day-to-day survival depends on doubtful
loyalty of numerous small parties in government coalition
who hold 23-seat margin of safety against opposition no-
confidence vote.
D. ,Yorst of all, from long-range viewpoint, Masjumi itself
showing signs of rupture.
IV. Newest evidence of disunity within Ma.sjumi--which is more a loose
federation than a, unified, disciplined political party--came of
24 Jam when Ma.sjumi deputy chairman and leader of conservative
wing, Sukima.n.0 told press he regarded negotiations with Dutch
a. "tria.tional tragedy," opposed their continuation.
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V. ha,tever the outcome in immediate future, chances of eventual
Communist participation in Indonesian government may be im-
proving.
A. Executive Committee of National Party (PNI - leader of
opposition and plurality winner in '55 elections) has re-
portedly voted for coalition in future cabinet including
NU, PSII and Communists.
b. Possible stumbling-block for leftists is position of NU.
Should this now major Moslem group (third in '55 voting)
reach some arrangement with 14asjumi, or some Ma.sjutai frag-
ment (like Sukima.n's), conservative forces would be strengthened.
C. If not, and NU continues to permit itself to be used as instru-
ment of Sukarno, we can expect to see further trend to left
in Indonesia,
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 M22 ANUAZt,X ia
;CIA-F P ,,9 01 027-0
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B, Vote of confidence could be c%lled for
Cabinet's brave front followed withdrawal
at any time.
f two ioslem parties from coalition
nominal majority in lame-duck parliament .
(19 Jan)--action which reduo-ed Govern1 entte
s
A. Cabinet nonetheless refused to resign
.to 23 seats.
vacancies caused by withdrawal of
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Islamic
League (PSII).
B. Filled from own ranks those cabinet
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lapses -minor victory
tas j umi now ~re1 t , on ^ ~a
isolated from NU, I -Dads
other major Moslem party'.
In consequence, effortstc
Masjumi-NU collaboration in new govern
went will be considerably more-difficult
C. Masjumi might even find itself excluded
from next cabinet (to-be formed after
seating of new parliament, probably
in April).
D. Meanwhile, cabinet's survival depends
on loyalty of numerous small parties i
government coalition, several of which
arcs in relLib'le.
itself ''.towing signs
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IV. Newest evidence of disunity w t ia: Mas j umi
ar loo ,J
--more of set federa, tio that ni tt
disciplined` political party--came ' of 24 ja
xA cT} sy,
when ILasjumi deputy :chairman and ,leader oaf
conservative wing, Sukitaan took. i sue w th
t chairman par Y Nalrsx and tg3da prec;h~ re-
garded negotiations
B Dutch a na Tonal
tragedy," opposed their continuation..
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V. Whatever the immediate outcome chances of
eventual Communist participation in Indo-
nesian government may be improving.
A. Executive Committee of National Party
(PNI - leader of opposition and -
plural tty winner to '55 elections) 1ia:-
:)nr? ' . _f 't 1 > t t` c; :)T' c'):a I. 1 i 1 0n
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still unsettled position" of;S
k 1.
bouixl.this newly - important Ynsa1 wi
group (third in ' 58 voting) reacb'.r9ome
a,,. rangement with leasumi, conseative
orces Would be;strengthened;`
leaders claim they still want
unity and consequent Communist gain
concerned over split in Moslem
elements in NU reportedly are
to work with Masjumi;' younger.
C. Unless working agreement can be arrange
between NU and Masjumi, however, we can
expect to see further trend to left
in Indonesia.
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