INDIA'S FIRST COMMUNIST STATE GOV'T

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A000800070014-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: May 8, 1957
• Content Type: BRIEF

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NSC BRIEFING 8 May 1957
INDIA'S FIRST COMMUNIST STATE GOV'T
I. In India's second nation-wide elections (Max '57), Nehru's Congress
Party retained its firm control over parliament, also managed
to retain absolute majorities in 11 out of India's 13 State
Assemblies.
A. Nonetheless, Congress Party lost ground in 9 of these State
gov'ts. In Bombay and Uttar Pradesh, serious reductions in
Congress strength. In Orissa, Congress Party maintained only a
small plurality. And in the narrow southwest coastal state of
Kerala--India's smallest--the Indian Communist Party has
managed to take control of a. State Gov't for the first time.
Communists in Kerala, with 35% of popular vote, won 60 seats in
127-man Assembly. Congress Party, with 39% of vote, got only
43 seats.
1. Five of six "independents" elected--more anti-Congress than
anything else--have thrown support to Commies.
.4 'S04 dry
2. Thus, Commies holdAcoa,lition majority of 2 seats in
Assembly and have formed new State Gov't,
II. Communists--who reportedly were surprised by their success at polls
(in '52 election, they took only 32 seats)--face substantial
problems in Kerala.
A. One of India's poorest States, with densely-settled population
of 14 million, few natural resources and little industry,
Kerala is a food-deficit area. where most of inhabitants are
subsistence farmers or work on tea. and copra. plantations.
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B. While poor, people of Kerala. are highly literate by Indian
standards (45~%, against national average of 28 a) . Schools
produce 23,000 high-school graduates and 10,000 college
graduates each year.
III. However, problems faced by Communists are balanced by opportunities.
A. Evidently planning to operate with caution, build maximum
popularity. "Moderation" is announced Commie watch-word, and
operation within limits of Indian constitution their declared
intent.
In bids for popular favor, Commies have cut ministerial wages,
stayed eviction proceedings for peasants, declared war on
corruption, solicited investment private capital in state
industrial development.
C. When attempted nationalization of foreign-held plantations ra.n
into Central Gov't opposition, Commies backed off,. However,
some attempt at land reform is obvious long-range Commie aim.
D. If Commies in Kerala can play cards right, their gains will
be national, as well as local.
1. Any local economic gains will have nation-wide appeal.
2. Local policy of moderation will tend to make Party more
acceptable elsewhere in India.--as domestic group, with
nationalistic rebrm program, safely divorced from Moscow
and Peiping.
E. Fruits of any Kerala. success likely to be reflected in Orissa,
where Commies now hold balance of power between Congress Party
(56 seats) and rightist opposition (51 seats) in 140-ma.n
Assembly. Another plum is Bombay State, where leadership of
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Congress Party there) is o en to capture by Commies.
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IV. Meanwhile, Congress-dominated Central Gov't can be expected to
fight hard a,ga,inst Commies, although avoiding open harassment,
A. Will exploit any Commie failure to equal or better Congress
record of economic improvement in State.
B. However, Central Gov't cannot force Commies out of office
unless breakdown of "law and order" occurs, Moreover,
opposition groups in local Assembly--who, if supported by
Commie-allied "independents," could oust Commies in united
vote of no confidence--a.re unlikely to unite for such action
in near future.
V. Thus, likeliest prospect is for Commies to hold office for year
or longer.
A. Barest hope of future improvement should make people of Kerala,
willing to grant Commies at lea,st that long to prove themselves.
B, In interim, US faces embarassing problem regarding ICA, USIA
and similar US-sponsored activities in State, since normal
pattern involves active cooperation with State (now Commie)
officialdom.
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