SITUATIONS INVOLVING A POTENTIAL FOR RESORT TO SUSTAINED INTERNAL VIOLENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00890A001200030031-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: March 30, 1961
• Content Type: REPORT

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SITUAWON'S -INVOLVING RESORT TO
SUSTAINED INTERNAL VIOLENCE
1. This paper seeks to identify and analyze those
situations in which the chances for the development of vio-
lent internal conflicts similar to those now current in
the Congo and in Laos are sufficient to warrant attention
for contingency planning: that is, those in which there
is a notable potentiality for sustained internal violence,
possibly instigated or supported by external interests,
within the next few years. Thus we exclude, on the one
hand, open warfare between states, and, on the other, the
innumerable possibilities for violent demonstrations, such
as those which occurred in Tokyo in June 1960, and for rev-
olutionary attempts likely to succeed or fail within a
matter of hours or days, as in Caracas in January 1958, or
in Addis Ababa in December 1960.
2. The conditions prerequisite to sustained violence
are, of course: (a) the presence of two or more strongly an-
tagonistic elements within the community; (b) an issue or
event of sufficient importance to bring them into open
violent conflict; (c) an inability on the part of either
party to achieve a quick decision by force; and (d) suf-
ficient means and determination on the part of each to sus-
tain the conflict, perhaps with the support of outside powers.
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demonstrated the impracticability of sustaining violent re-
sistance in this area. Although disaffection continues to
exist, it is unlikely that such resistance will again be
attempted for many years. The isolation of Albania, and the
conflicting interests of Yugoslavia, the USSR, and Communist
China in that country make it a possible exception to the
rule.
c. The Arab States and Iran: Tensions within and
mong these states are likely to produce violent political
change in one or more of them during the next few years.
Violence in the area is likely to take the form of urban
disorders or sudden coup attempts, but these could lead to
sustained violence in some cases. Resort to violence in
ny of these countries would be likely to have repercussions
in others.
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d. South Asia: On the northwest frontier of Pak-
istan and the northeast frontier of India there are po-
tentialities for sustained conflict between the regular
forces of those states and elusive tribesman disaffected
toward them and accessible to outside support. Conversely,
the Communist Chinese have evidently encountered a potenti-
ality for sustained resistance in Tibet.
e. Southeast Asia: Sustained violence is currently
in progress in Laos and South Vietnam, and such potentiali-
ties exist in Burma, Malaya-Singapore, and Indonesia. The
collapse of Laos would have repercussions throughout the
area, but they would probably be of a political rather
than a violent nature.
. The Far East: Although potentialities for sub-
version and violent urban demonstrations exist in Taiwan,
South Korea, and Japan, we perceive no potentiality for sus-
tained internal violence in those countries.
g. Latin America: Social and political tensions
are acute throughout Latin America. Sustained violence such
as occurred in Mexico, 1910-1920, or in Cuba in 1958, is
conceivable with respect to many of the countries of the
area, but violent political action is more likely to be of
relatively brief duration, as in Venezuela in 1958.
h. Africa: Situations of sustained violence now
exist in Algeria and the Congo; potentialities for the de-
velopment of similar situations exist throughout the continent
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in both the independent states and the remaining colonial
territories. In some parts of Africa south of the Sahara--
South Africa, the Rhodesias, Angola, and Mozambique--this
is a matter of tension between a settled and dominant white
community and the mass of aboriginal Africans. Elsewhere,
as in the Congo, it is a matter of regional, tribal, and
cultural conflicts among the Africans themselves.
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