IAC AGENCY VIEWS ON NIE-57: PROBABLE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WEST GERMAN SITUATION DURING 1952

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000100030094-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 94
• Publication Date: February 6, 1952
• Content Type: MF

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C IDENTIAL
6 February 1952
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIR1 OR OF CENTRAL INTELLIG:NCE
Subjects IAC Agency Views on NIE-57s Probable Political
Developments in the West German Situation
during 1952
East Ge
1. The points of disagreement re NIE-57 are indicated by
the State and Air Force footnotes to paragraphs 8, 214, and 33.
These paragra ha deal with the effect on West German integra-
tion and rearmament of East German overtures for German
unification. The estimate concludes that such overtures cannot
permanently block, but nr,3ight delay" West German action.
(a) State thinks unification overtures could not
even delay West German action. The other agencies feel
that unification sentiment is still strong in West Germarr
and that there are marW delaying tactics still open to the
(b) As for the Air Force footnote, in NIE-5O all of
the agencies except the Air Force estimate that Soviet
withdrawal from East Germarq is extremely unlikely. There-
fore, there seems np need to consider in NIE-57 the effects
of such withdrawal on West Germarq.
2. An you know, the West German Bundestag is holding a
full-dress debate on the EDC and rearmament issueson 7 and 8
February. Conceivably this debate could result in a serious
setback to the program. The Board believes such a setback
unlikely, and suggests that the IAG approve the estimate, but
that publication be deferred until Monday. In the unlikely
event that the debate invalidates the estimate in atr respect,
a further meeting of the agency representatives could be called
on Monday to revise the estimate.
WPB:RJSImr
Distributions
Addressee
B/DCI
DD/I
OAD/NE
Sherman Kent
Assistant Director
National Estimates
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